UO2?

[Arthur_Parker]

Interesting interview with Mark Jacob's

GS: What are you working on with the existing Ultima people?

MJ: Right now I am not working on anything with the Ultima team. We’re not part of EA officially yet, not til the deal is done.

What has happened to date that I can tell you is that as part of EA, they would like us to talk to these guys and look at the IP, look at Ultima Online and see what the scoop is. What can we do now, or could we do something potentially in the future? But I can tell you that we’ve chatted with these guys, but that’s as far as we can go now.

GS: Do you have personal interest in working on the next Ultima?

MJ: I think that Ultima, both the RPG and the online game, are two of the most important games in the history of the game industry. I mean, look at what Richard Garriot did with Ultima. Fantastic work. Ultima Online was the first MMO to ever have 100,000 subscribers, it was the most successful online game for a number of  years, and I think the IP is one that, as an IP that is owned by EA, is one that we should look at, to see what we can do with moving forward.

The full interview is worth a read as he covers quite a few topics including Asia and how funding was raised for DAoC.

[WayAbvPar]

Say what you want about Mark Jacobs, but he gives good interviews. He knows how to push the right buttons get get nerdsters in a fervor.

[squirrel]

Say what you want about Mark Jacobs, but he gives good interviews. He knows how to push the right buttons get get nerdsters in a fervor.

Yeah he does. I met him at an E3 a few years ago and immediately noticed that his experience with the smaller pay to play MUD's that Mythic ran prior to DAoC gave him a lot more insight and credibility when speaking about the genre. And he's a good, measured speaker.

[schild]

Too bad he's about to become EA's new whipping boy unless he cashes out. If he's as smart as you say, Cashing Out is the way to go. Mythic was a private company, Jacobs is gonna be RICH.

[Reg]

I'm betting that he's stuck there for at least a year or two to make it look like Mythic actually still exists. Once that's over he can go buy a castle and EA can proceed to assimilate whatever is left.

[Merusk]

By assimilate I assume you mean "dismantle," right?

Mythic actually getting the go-ahead to explore a UO2 would be the last sign.  That's one property that's destined to produce only tears and resume filler.

[WindupAtheist]

I wouldn't care about a Mythic UO2.  It would just be some faggoty class-based realm PVP pile.

[geldonyetich]

They say the third time's the charm...

... and they'd need a charm to stop EA from canceling their efforts again.

It must have been terrifying for those working for Mythic to have visited the Ultima Online development offices to find only the dry, withered husks of the previous team within.

[sinij]

I wouldn't care about a Mythic UO2.  It would just be some faggoty class-based realm PVP pile.

As opposed to some faggoty EQ-clone pile that pukes at EA can come up with?

[WindupAtheist]

OoooOo

What?

[NiX]

OoooOo

What? I can't hear you! LALALALALALALALA!

Fixed that for you.

[Merusk]

I wouldn't care about a Mythic UO2.  It would just be some faggoty class-based realm PVP pile.

As opposed to some faggoty EQ-clone pile that pukes at EA can come up with?

I dunno, I have to partially agree with WUA on this one.  Part of UO's appeal has always been its open sandboxy nature.  The lack of levels, the omission of "factions" or "sides" in favor of true player politics, the skills and the overall combat mechanics.   I can't see Mythic making a sequel along those lines.  Instead it'd be a level-based, pvp-pve mix whose politics are as deep as;  "you fight with these guys because you rolled the same side."

Are you saying that's what you'd want from a UO sequel?

[Venkman]

Not sure I'd assume Mythic would do an EQ clone just because they did that previously with DAoC. It's not like their team has been exactly the same since the earliest days of Mark's efforts in games that predated that. And he's particularly aware that doing yet another EQ clone is absolutely not going to do anything for EA in the face of the WoW juggernaut.

Would UO2 be sandboxy in nature? I have no idea. But there's still a lot of things to try in this genre, and with the almost unassailable position of WoW, it's almost a requirement to think differently if you want to break beyond niche-subscriptions. And for a company like EA, breaking beyond that niche is the price of entry for new games I would imagine.

[Merusk]

It's all speculation, but my opinion of the direction they'd take things is based on their experience, and the direction they've taken their other projects.

They also lack Raph's vision - which IMO is needed for something that sandboxy. Just don't let the man RUN the project.  :-D

[shiznitz]

Not sure I'd assume Mythic would do an EQ clone just because they did that previously with DAoC. It's not like their team has been exactly the same since the earliest days of Mark's efforts in games that predated that. And he's particularly aware that doing yet another EQ clone is absolutely not going to do anything for EA in the face of the WoW juggernaut.

Would UO2 be sandboxy in nature? I have no idea. But there's still a lot of things to try in this genre, and with the almost unassailable position of WoW, it's almost a requirement to think differently if you want to break beyond niche-subscriptions. And for a company like EA, breaking beyond that niche is the price of entry for new games I would imagine.

I don't think EA has the financial courage to try something beyond niche. An MMO with a $20 million or greater budget would get micro-managed to death. I imagine that EA execs are more concerned about NOT doing another Sims Online versus trying to hit even an EQ2.  When avoiding losses has a greater mindshare than trying to succeed, innovation is the first to die.

[WindupAtheist]

Basically it comes down to my thinking that future Mythic products will look like past Mythic products, and Sinij posting infantile BS because his butthole is still bleeding from UO design decisions made six years ago.

[sinij]

Part of UO's appeal has always been its open sandboxy nature.  The lack of levels, the omission of "factions" or "sides" in favor of true player politics, the skills and the overall combat mechanics.

Don't get me wrong, original UO had many things right and I'd love to see updated version of it, minus griefers and whiny trammies, just as it was in 99. Thing is I don't think current degeneration of EA developers would be allowed anything anywhere nearly that ambitious, and even if they were they would likely to miserably fail. Lets face it, almost all reasons original UO was fun were not designed or planned and at large flukes.

[dusematic]

I don't know how many of you played DAOC when it first came out, but I would hardly call it a "faggoty ass EQ clone."  I played from the first day of release, for about 4 months.  Considering EQ is simply a graphical MUD, I don't know why they get all they credit for innovation anyway.  But not every game can be a revolution.  That said, DAOC had some pretty nice evolutionary features.  I remember thinking how cool it was that I could tint my armor.  RvR combat was a cool concept.  It wasn't quite as cool in practice, but it was a nice idea that hadn't been done in a major MMO up to that point.

The problem with DAOC is that they didn't have enough content.  I was one of the first people to max level on my server, and we started a little elite guild, but it slowly deteriorated because there was simply nothing to do but raid the barrows over and over.  And there was no good loot in there to boot. So we really had no objective but to RVR constantly, which was fine, except there was no objective or reward system in place there either.  It was just killing for the sake of killing, which doesn't hold interest so well when it is in a structured environment like RVR combat. 

One final thought: I think they could have staved off this problem a little while to buy themselves some time if they had made it actually possible to overpower a Realm's border castle, and invade a realm.  THAT would have been very cool, and given people somehting to strive for.

[El Gallo]

But there's still a lot of things to try in this genre, and with the almost unassailable position of WoW, it's almost a requirement to think differently if you want to break beyond niche-subscriptions. And for a company like EA, breaking beyond that niche is the price of entry for new games I would imagine.

I see this becoming the conventional wisdom around here, but I really disagree with it.  People here said exactly the same thing about EverQuest.  WoW's success is a sign that huge swaths of people really like to play diku (which should not suprise anybody, since that style of gameplay dominated MMOGs, MUDs, CRPGS, and pen-and-paper).  There is plenty of space for new diku games to make a shitload of money.  Sure, you can't make "WoW But Worse" and expect to thrive, but if you keep the core gameplay and change a few things, there is plenty of market for you.  There are a ton of people who don't care for WoW's art style.  Or want a non-fantasy game.  Or a little less PvP.  Or a little more PvP.  Or want a house.  Or want more grouping.  Or want more soloing.   Or are just plain kind of tired of WoW and/or out of content in WoW (you'd have to time your release to avoid WoW's expansion, of course).  You do that well, and you make money.

I think it really boils down to wishful thinking.  It takes a lot of self-delusion to watch diku, which has dominated the genre basically from its inception, gobble up bigger and bigger shares of the market eventually culminating in a single, well-made diku game utterly dominating the entire landscape and say "that's a sign that non-diku games are about to assplode onto the scene!"

I guarantee that if WoW had flopped, the exact same people spouting this line now would be saying "WoW flopped, that's a sign that non-diku games are about to assplode onto the scene!"

[dusematic]

I think it really boils down to wishful thinking.  It takes a lot of self-delusion to watch diku, which has dominated the genre basically from its inception, gobble up bigger and bigger shares of the market eventually culminating in a single, well-made diku game utterly dominating the entire landscape and say "that's a sign that non-diku games are about to assplode onto the scene!"

QFT.  The Revolution isn't happening.  They'll keep making MMOs a little bit more polished, a little bit shinier, a little bit better. 

[HaemishM]

No one will make a Diku-mud game as successful as WoW because no one has the financial resources to do so, even EA. It isn't that they don't have the talent, it's that they don't have the money.

Oh, and no one has that kind of license either, at least not for a PC MMOG. Consoles are a whole other business, if anyone can ever figure out how to do it besides Squeenix.

[Nija]

I don't think they can call anything "UO2" anymore. They've had, what, two or three failed "UO2"s already. It's a cursed moniker and should only be mentioned on moonless nights using deep whispers.

[Morat20]

No one will make a Diku-mud game as successful as WoW because no one has the financial resources to do so, even EA. It isn't that they don't have the talent, it's that they don't have the money.

Oh, and no one has that kind of license either, at least not for a PC MMOG. Consoles are a whole other business, if anyone can ever figure out how to do it besides Squeenix.

I'm hoping the smaller houses are looking to EVE to see what can be done with a dedicated and long-term vision (and team), persistance, and a willingness to push a game in different direction -- to exploit the niche.

One of the things that pisses me off so much about SOE is that the Station Pass is a good idea -- one unified fee to play a variety of MMORPGs. The problem is half or more of it is barely supported shit.

[Venkman]

I see this becoming the conventional wisdom around here, but I really disagree with it.

Yep, dikus dominate the genre, have for awhile and likely will for awhile. No harm in that. It's a relatively easy and proven formula to follow, perfect for the business 101 crowd to exploit by slapping licenses on it. Blizzard will not be the last to take a strong IP and wrap it over the same core game system.

So I'm certainly not saying it's going away. And I'm not saying it's dominance as a game system is going to be assailed. Beyond the game mechanic itself is the secondary income companies can enjoy through item sales. They go hand in hand with that sort of game system.

What I am saying is that the diversity in this genre cannot be ignored. And, the "conventional wisdom" you talk about is those trying not to be ignorant. It's easy to talk about success. It's around us all. But to just write off the genre as a series of game mechanic clones misses the dozens of games that are not.

Are they less relevant because they don't have 7 digits in their posted subscription base? Maybe to those who only look at the genre from one perspective. But there's plenty of companies making a good living offering different experiences to less players. When you consider just how old this genre is (read: not), it's easy to see that the established rules of today are perpetuated by those who, eight years ago, weren't likely even playing.

Do you think the players eight years from now will be the same as those who are here today?

[Margalis]

People tend to over-generalize for a couple of data points.

WoW really doesn't say much about Diku games vs non Diku games. There isn't a sandbox game at all comparable to WoW in terms of polish, production value, etc.

It's a big mistake to say that WoW means Dikus are really popular, or that the Diku market is saturated, or that fantasy is where it's at, or anything like that. EQ2 is a Diku game with a fantasy setting after all. So is Horizons.

WoW is a single data point. With that in mind, clearly being Diku and being fantasy are not what made WOW so successful, because there are plenty of other Diku games that are fantasy that do 1/100th as well. WOW doesn't really say much about anything other than that WOW is really fucking popular.

[dusematic]

WOW doesn't really say much about anything other than that WOW is really fucking popular.

Wrong.  If WoW was shit it wouldn't have the subscriber base it does.  WoW is the best Diku game out right now, that's relatively indisputable.  That says a lot about the diku model.

[Engels]

WOW doesn't really say much about anything other than that WOW is really fucking popular.

Wrong.  If WoW was shit it wouldn't have the subscriber base it does.  WoW is the best Diku game out right now, that's relatively indisputable.  That says a lot about the diku model.

'Best' is a relative thing. If popularity defined 'best', we'd all be listening to Britney Spears now, wouldn't we?

[Arthur_Parker]

People tend to over-generalize for a couple of data points.

WoW really doesn't say much about Diku games vs non Diku games. There isn't a sandbox game at all comparable to WoW in terms of polish, production value, etc.

It's a big mistake to say that WoW means Dikus are really popular, or that the Diku market is saturated, or that fantasy is where it's at, or anything like that. EQ2 is a Diku game with a fantasy setting after all. So is Horizons.

WoW is a single data point. With that in mind, clearly being Diku and being fantasy are not what made WOW so successful, because there are plenty of other Diku games that are fantasy that do 1/100th as well. WOW doesn't really say much about anything other than that WOW is really fucking popular.

I'd largely agree with that except, I believe fantasy does appear to be "where it's at" mostly for the single reason quoted below.

Fantasy is easier than sci-fi. Want to know why? It’s simple. A gun. What’s a gun, a gun is impersonal. A gun can shoot somebody from across the room. A gun in the future should be able to shoot a room from a mile away. Part of the challenge we found with Imperator is how do you make a combat system based on lasers and energy weapons, compelling to an RPG audience.

I think it's slightly more complicated than above, due to players having certain set ideas about firing guns with the mouse and yet despite all the fantasy mmorpg's, we are still open to new ideas on swinging a sword.  My FPS gameplay key bindings in any new game are immediately changed to the same as when I played Quake.

I'm also going to link to these recent figures by Universal McCann, not because I think they are surprising or even accurate but just because it's nice to see someone other than SB quoting figures.

MMOG Market Share by Genre*, January 2006 (%)
MMOG Market Share (%)
Fantasy role-playing game 89.1
Sci-fi/superhero role-playing game 7.1
Combat simulation/first-person shooter 0.9
Social/other 2.9
* Excluding Lineage, Lineage II, and Ragnorok.
Source: Universal McCann, 2006

[Venkman]

Just to be clear, I think it important we all agree that "diku" as we use it pertains to a specific type of game experience, not necessarily the underlying infrastructure that diku really is. Even though all of the "diku" games are built very differently, it's what the experiences are about where the parallels are drawn.

It's a big mistake to say that WoW means Dikus are really popular, or that the Diku market is saturated, or that fantasy is where it's at, or anything like that. EQ2 is a Diku game with a fantasy setting after all. So is Horizons.

As is FFXI (a different form of fantasy though it is), as is DAoC, as was, of course, EQ1. GW is arguably built upon the same foundation as well. L2 as well.

Add up all of the subscribers for these titles. Then add up all of those in the virtual-lifestyle/non-diku experiences. Even before WoW and GW threw numbers beyond the million-mark, this sort of game has dominated the genre.

That's why people, gamers and developers alike, assume this sort of game experience to be most popular. It's now about WoW. That only opened peoples eyes to just how many more gamers could be drawn into this type of game.

[Jayce]

'Best' is a relative thing. If popularity defined 'best', we'd all be listening to Britney Spears now, wouldn't we?

We're not?

[WindupAtheist]

Do you think the players eight years from now will be the same as those who are here today?

Yes.

I think that in 2014 there are going to be eighteen million people grinding for dings in World of Starcraft II, while Puzzle Pirates III plugs away with 50k subscribers and you and Raph and other people talk about it as if it's somehow relevant.  Meanwhile UO will have finally shut down, and I'll be playing on a freeshard once the community for them isn't 95% people who want to relive 1998 for a week.  Schild will have gone bald, while Righ & Signe will have adopted a lovable multiethnic gaggle of orphans from around the world.  SirBruce will have been elected to Congress.  Every once in a while we'll all post on F13 about how terrible it was that Sinij died in a case of autoerotic asphyxiation gone terribly wrong.  Also, there'll be Thunderdome.

Welcome to the future.

[HaemishM]

If you don't think Puzzle Pirates is relevant for its success, you really do belong in UO.

[Raph]

I just have to point out that those figures tend to leave out titles like CyWorld and Habbo Hotel, which change the balance more than a little.

[El Gallo]

SirBrucing AHOY!

I see this becoming the conventional wisdom around here, but I really disagree with it.

So I'm certainly not saying it's going away. And I'm not saying it's dominance as a game system is going to be assailed.

You said "But there's still a lot of things to try in this genre, and with the almost unassailable position of WoW, it's almost a requirement to think differently if you want to break beyond niche-subscriptions."

That's what I disagree with.  If that's not what you meant to say or I misread you, then this is another in a long line of disagreements over nothing that make the Internet turn 'round.

And, the "conventional wisdom" you talk about is those trying not to be ignorant.

You used to be so nice, what happened?

It's easy to talk about success. It's around us all. But to just write off the genre as a series of game mechanic clones misses the dozens of games that are not.

Again, I'm not writing any games off but man are you ever pounding the straw out of that man, big fella (I was never nice)!

Are they less relevant because they don't have 7 digits in their posted subscription base? Maybe to those who only look at the genre from one perspective.

Yes, I think a game’s "subscription base" is kind of relevant when I am responding to someone saying companies need to do something different than diku in order to "break beyond niche subscriptions." 

But there's plenty of companies making a good living offering different experiences to less players.

No shit.  What those games prove is that you can make profitable niche games that are non-diku.  What they don’t prove is that it is now basically impossible to make a non-niche diku game because WoW represents the end of 8-30+ years of history. 

They also don’t prove that it is even possible to make a non-niche, non-diku game.  I think it is, but it sure as hell isn’t going to be called UO2.  It’ll be called Sims Online (We Really Tried This Time) or Animal Crossing VII or Desperate Housewives Online.   

When you consider just how old this genre is (read: not), it's easy to see that the established rules of today are perpetuated by those who, eight years ago, weren't likely even playing.

We have different opinions of when the genre started.  Dungeons & Dragons was released in 1974.  Akalabeth in 1980.  DikuMud in 1991.  Ding-grats-lewt for 30+ years and still ruling the roost.

Do you think the players eight years from now will be the same as those who are here today?

I think people playing games with orcs, elves, spaceships or lightsabers in them 8 years from now will be a lot like people who are playing games with orcs, elves, spaceships or lightsabers in them right now.  I think the major games in this genre will be vastly improved, but still fundamentally about ding-grats-lewt.  I think that major entertainment companies will be willing to spend a lot of money to make high-quality products now that they’ve seen the absurd return on investment possibilities.  I think there will also be niche products around, much like the niche products available today, similarly improved with iteration.

I think there will also be a lot people playing massively multiplayer online games with names like, at the risk of repeating myself, Sims, Animal Crossing or Desperate Housewives.  They will probably have some ding-grats-lewt aspects and some sandbox aspects, but will mostly be giant virtual chatrooms.

[Venkman]

You said "But there's still a lot of things to try in this genre, and with the almost unassailable position of WoW, it's almost a requirement to think differently if you want to break beyond niche-subscriptions."

That's what I disagree with. If that's not what you meant to say or I misread you, then this is another in a long line of disagreements over nothing that make the Internet turn 'round.

You SB'd yourself! I think you just disproved the notion that two objects can't exist in the same space or something...

The part we disagree on, I think, is the perception that iterating the classic formula is just as easy now as it was when EQ first did it.

And I meant to use "ignorant" in the purest sence of the word: the "conventional wisdom" I think you were referring to is the standard 5 or so MMORPGs that exist on the lists of many people in these sorts of forums. That isn't to say they're not interested in knowing just how many games there are that offer a technically comparable experience. Rather, because those games don't specifically target players such as us, they can easily fall below the radar.

What I was referring to in that comment was the various different experiences to be had being offered through completely different business models built on technically very different foundations. Very few companies are actually hand-building custom graphics engines to fill with $60mil+ of content and quests. They're working in Flash. They're using fast-loading zone-based methodologies. They're not focusing on offering just a one-trick pony games that ends with just two different endlessly-repeatable experiences. And some are not collecting a monthly fee. They're in different segments of the market not targeting lummies and those that have followed.

This, to me, is because of two different reasons, equally important:

Who?

Who can do what Blizzard has done (deliver a content-complete diku around the world)? They spent easily three times what EQ2 did, and at the time, that was said to be a record. Outside of EA, you're talking different industries. Thus, the biggest budget games we can expect in the next few years are more likely to come in the form of those near-advergaming experiences like what James Cameron is working on than it will come from, say, Codemasters. I'd wager big bucks that the Hollywood-funded MMOs will be very different from WoW. Why? Next bullet.

What?

The type of experience. WoW succeeded in attracting more players than almost any other MMO (though the numbers get tricky in Asia because they're not technically monthly subscribers for the most part). But they're mostly the same type of player. Consider how iterative the debates are about the game. It's all the same type of stuff we've been arguing since Kunark.

WoW's success is based on a lot of factors not just about the game, like the growth of broadband, the increasing raw computing power, Blizzard's rockstar image, the Warcraft brand, critical worldwide partnerships, all sorts of things that open doors other companies could not to broaden the delivery of a game mechanic a decade old. So does the whole world want diku? Are there 10million more people who need just a tweak off of WoW to give the next game a chance in larger droves?

If you look beyond this genre, to the tens of millions of gamers not here, to the 30mil or so who've bought GTA, the 20mil or so who bought Sims, the tens of millions in places like RealArcade and the hundreds of millions who don't want to spend hours a day playing just one type of gaming experience, my answer is, no, the whole world does not want diku. And these other companies not iterating diku are attempting to capitalize on this.

We've been here before. Generally the establishment gets capped by a highly polished derivative title that ends evolution along a specific path (as happened in RTS, space sims and FPS). What then happened, with the inevitable diminishing interest, was innovation to tweak things to grab back the bored and broaden the appeal beyond them. Basic business survival, with some success and some not (like, RTS success, space sim not). Such I believe is happening in MMORPGs now. They are defined by what WoW has refined to a T, in a way nobody else can.

The future requires new thinking or we're just talking about account cannabalization.

This does sound familiar, back from the days when SWG launched to little fanfare and EQ was determined king/best. But the genre, collectively, is wiser. The cap that EQ presented was based on a very limited awareness of other ways of doing things (the nice form of "ignorance" again :) ). Nowadays? We know more.

Yes, I think a game’s "subscription base" is kind of relevant when I am responding to someone saying companies need to do something different than diku in order to "break beyond niche subscriptions."

The reason I depart from subscription base in this regard is because many companies already are. I firmly believe the future is not in locking players into a longish-term relationship with a flat fee. Ironically, some estimate the average account held in WoW is 14 months. That's more of an indication that there's a buttload of players on their first-ever MMORPG than that WoW is fundamentally more sticky. What happens when WoW is old? If we use the similar experience of EQ as a guide, the average length of account will quickly drop (maybe by '08) to six months. Meanwhile, compare to the stickiness of worldy-games, or sites that offer many games and a common community/microeconomy (Neopets). The relationship is longer because the momentary requirements are lighter. There's basically less reason to even become burned out.

To grab mindshare, companies need alternative methods to get players and keep them need to be explored. The free-to-play/microtransaction model is not very noticable in the U.S. because people are fixated on WoW. But it's a more appealing model than the typical subscription, for a lot of reasons for both player and company alike.

We have different opinions of when the genre started. Dungeons & Dragons was released in 1974. Akalabeth in 1980. DikuMud in 1991. Ding-grats-lewt for 30+ years and still ruling the roost.

The roots of the genre arguably go all the way back to Celtic lore :) (or the first multiplayer game which, iirc, was Space War from MIT in the 60s). The question of 8 years out comes from me dating the genre back to the origination of the term "MMORPG".

I break down generations by player expectation. At this point, yea, they'll come to these games expecting ding-gratz-lewtz because that's the most pervasive form of gaming in this space. But just as there were mechanics beyond D&D that were appealing to a different audiences, there are mechanics here for those who want more than the same thing with different skins. For them there are companies that are appropriately smaller offering appropriately more targeted experience.

As to the future, here's why I think it'll be different.

The genre will be mainstream within two years. It's amazing how many companies are coming into this from way outside the establishment. They're not going to target the WoW player though, because to do that is beyond most companies, or at least beyond their willingness. As I said above, it's because they're expanding the genre into the not-diku-player, as has happened in the past. This is the core of Blue Ocean Strategy, the idea that a company does not have to try and compete with the establishment if they can execute something that changes the rules.

We agree it won't be UO. To me it probably will be based on a strong brand or established IP extended into this space in some form, made relevant to what can happen here rather than what happens in WoW.