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Arthur_Parker
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on: June 27, 2006, 10:58:14 AM

Source
Quote from: Boston Globe
Want to dominate a virtual world? It takes real money
By Scott Kirsner  |  June 25, 2006

If you're a Rogue who is desirous of the Scarab of Protection, two choices confront you: earn it by playing the game Dungeons & Dragons Online, or simply shell out $199.95 and buy the coveted object from the website IGE.com.

How did scarabs get so precious? Internet commerce in virtual objects, from clothing to real estate to weaponry, has become a big business, and it's increasingly vexing to the players of online games, as well as the companies that develop them.

First, a quick primer: According to analyst Bruce Sterling Woodcock, about 12 million people pay monthly subscription fees to participate in MMOs, an abbreviation for ``massively multiplayer online games."

A major lure is the ability to create an alternate persona and enter a fantasy world, advancing by creating alliances with other players, earning gold, obtaining objects like the Scarab of Protection, and completing quests. The most popular of the games, Blizzard Entertainment's World of Warcraft, with about six million players, owns about half of the MMO market.

Sony Online's Everquest is so addictive that some players refer to it by the nickname ``Evercrack." Most of the games, like Dungeons & Dragons Online, developed by Westwood-based Turbine Entertainment Inc., charge subscription fees of about $15 per month.

Originally, the games were all about expertise: players progressed as their skills improved. But over the past few years, a secondary market has developed -- perhaps as large as $1 billion annually, according to IGE.com -- in selling items like virtual ``gold" and even prefab characters that can help players advance much more quickly.

(Fifty-thousand pieces of platinum, legal tender in Dungeons & Dragons Online, can be bought for $24.69 from MySuperSales.com). That can be frustrating to players who feel that others are purchasing progress in the games, and to game developers like Turbine, who wonder how they might capture some of this value from the secondary market.

Turbine chief executive Jeff Anderson characterizes his company's dilemma this way: ``Some people want to spend 40 hours a week playing the game, but some can only play four hours a week," Anderson says. ``Some players have more money than time, and they want to experience the advancement curve at a faster pace."

He likens the dilemma to the one the record companies faced when the Internet emerged as a delivery mechanism for music. They still wanted to sell complete CDs at full price, but listeners wanted to be able to purchase songs individually. Enter Apple's iTunes Music Store, and the 99 cent legal download.

``When you buy the Sword of Doom, you're circumventing some of the game play, but from the player's perspective, you're telling us, `I don't want to buy the rest of the crummy songs on the CD -- just the one hit song,' " Anderson says. ``As a company, we're doing lots of surveys and research about how we want to address this problem going forward."

(Most game developers, including Turbine, officially ban the resale of virtual items and currency from their games, but they can't do much to stop it.)

What's the source of all these swords and scarabs being sold on the secondary market?

Often, they're collected by people in foreign countries who play the games for a living; they're sometimes called ``gold farmers." Their hard-headed scavenging for items of value can spoil players' fun.

As a high school student in Acton, Lincoln Quirk spent his summer a few years ago selling items from the game Diablo II. He and two friends earned about $3,000 offering virtual crossbows and other valuable items from the game.

``It's a legitimate style of play," he says of buying game objects, though Quirk acknowledges that it can make pricetags skyrocket in the virtual world. ``People buying items on eBay are willing to spend more than their market value, so you get inflation in the game, which can be a little frustrating for people who play legitimately."

Quirk is now studying computer science at Brown University and planning for a career in the games industry.

Julian Dibbell, a writer on gaming, says that RMT (or ``real-money trading") may actually make the games more realistic.

In our world, not everyone starts with the same set of assets and advantages; some are born sucking silver spoons. But so far, players have gravitated to the games as an escape, and the splash of reality may not be so appealing.

``Players want a fresh start," says Dibbell. ``They don't want to bring all the inequalities of real life into the game. They're a Paladin on the Field of Strife, and suddenly they're facing this Shaman who's a corporate lawyer in real life, who kills them with his awesome arsenal that he paid thousands of dollars for."

Dibbell's book ``Play Money," out next month, chronicles his year-long attempt to earn a living by selling items from the game Ultima Online.

Sony has already set up a kind of eBay for virtual items called Station Exchange, where players can sell characters, currency, or items online, with Sony taking 10 percent of the transaction.

Like eBay, it reduces the risk of scams, and players who choose purchase items actually play the game in separate areas from players who want to earn their advancement.

``It purifies the game play, parsing it according to individual tastes," says Indiana University economics professor Edward Castronova, who has studied online gaming. ``It's a signal that this moment of these third parties capitalizing on [real money trading] is coming to an end. Developers are going to capitalize, one way or another."

Turbine already seems to be considering how it might capitalize, perhaps by eliminating or reducing its monthly subscription fees, and selling items to players à la carte, for about $1 to $5.

Anderson, Turbine's CEO, believes that business model could ``open up the gaming market to a much larger audience, where today's monthly subscription price is a barrier."


But Anderson knows that getting into the business of selling cloaks and swords will be a high-wire act for Turbine and other game developers.

Players don't want to feel they're being nickeled-and-dimed, and the games could potentially devolve into a place where the kids with the biggest allowances dominate any duel.

Sporkfire replies
Quote from: Sporkfire
There are some points to clarify on that item. The reporter called us to discuss virtual economies and business models, and we talked with them. Of course, individual item sales came up, since there is an established market for them already. Since we talk about a lot of things here in the building, it is natural that a few times, somebody has mentioned selling items. That was then part of our conversation with the Globe.

But what you need to know is that we aren't planning to sell uber items in DDO.
To qualify that, the business of MMORPG's is changing. Where it used to be a market of $10-$15 a month subscriptions, people are starting to experiment. Guild Wars, Anarchy Online, PlanetSide and others are starting to look at ways to offer different subscription models while still running a business off the games.

To be in this business, we have to watch what others are doing and think of ideas we could possibly use in the future. The reporter was interested in that kind of thinking, and so they came to talk to us. It doesn't necessarily mean we are going to do any of it.

Players max out too fast in DDO, possibly being considered for LOTRO?
HaemishM
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Reply #1 on: June 27, 2006, 11:16:24 AM

Why the fuck do supposedly respected journalistic entities still think Woodcock is any kind of legitimate source for anything other than how to fuck a man in a fursuit?

Arthur_Parker
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Reply #2 on: June 27, 2006, 11:22:51 AM

He's the only one gathering the data, it's natural he will be constantly referred to.  You can't prove him wrong because if you can link to a more accurate figure he just updates with the new data.
Merusk
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Reply #3 on: June 27, 2006, 11:25:42 AM

Plus, Bruce is a shameless self-promoter with the money to make it his full-time job.   Hell, given that he's the only one doing it he may actually have accumulated /real/ sources over the last few years, bringing the numbers close to some semblence of reality.  Scary thought.

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Reply #4 on: June 27, 2006, 11:46:15 AM

Why the fuck do supposedly respected journalistic entities still think Woodcock is any kind of legitimate source for anything other than how to fuck a man in a fursuit?

People love graphs.

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Nija
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Reply #5 on: June 27, 2006, 12:12:46 PM

His last name is Woodcock?

How can anyone take him seriously?
schild
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Reply #6 on: June 27, 2006, 12:44:25 PM

For the numbers, it's seriously a case of him having them up. He provides the excel charts for free. There's nothing stopping every game site on Earth from taking them and reposting them. Except, I suppose, integrity. But that's something gaming journalism has never been big on anyway.

Either way, who gives a fuck. The above article is just terrible journalism. Saying MMOGs have 12 Million People and what MMOGs stand for is a quick primer on... oh... nothing. What the fuck is the Boston Globe doing writing about games anyway?


You stay classy, real journalism talking about games.
HaemishM
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Reply #7 on: June 27, 2006, 01:22:16 PM

I hardly think anything in that story classifies as REAL journalism.

WindupAtheist
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Reply #8 on: June 27, 2006, 06:48:28 PM

Boston Globe cites SirBruce as source.  World explodes.

I mean what sort of asshat posts MMO business figures without citing a concrete source that can be independantly verified?

Oh wait...

/hide

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Slyfeind
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Reply #9 on: June 27, 2006, 08:09:03 PM

Bah, we all watched him insidiate himself on the gaming community; we knew what he was up to. And now it's TOO LATE.

"Role playing in an MMO is more like an open orchestra with no conductor, anyone of any skill level can walk in at any time, and everyone brings their own instrument and plays whatever song they want.  Then toss PvP into the mix and things REALLY get ugly!" -Count Nerfedalot
Hoax
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Reply #10 on: June 27, 2006, 11:10:45 PM

Sort of like an incurable STD?

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Venkman
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Reply #11 on: June 28, 2006, 07:09:34 AM

Why the fuck do supposedly respected journalistic entities still think Woodcock is any kind of legitimate source for anything other than how to fuck a man in a fursuit?
Because he reports at all, getting his name out there, rather than waiting for people to find him. Obviously he's in it for himself. Obviously he's got a history of mixing substantiated fact with anecdotes and opinion. Obviously his numbers sometimes don't add up.

But the average reporting group doesn't give a shit. They report anything and then maybe do a correction on page 12. It sucks and is stupid and all that usual shit, but the fact remains that for the vast majority of people out there with only the barest of interest in this stuff, anything more concrete is irrelevant.

One can choose to take advantage of this, enhancing their prestige through exploiting the inequities of the mass media. Or they can hope the truth is going to matter more in the long run.

History has the answer to who wins out in that one, but one also needs to be able to sleep at night.
Numtini
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Reply #12 on: June 28, 2006, 10:59:33 AM

Leaving aside the furry fun, one thing of interest is that the system described isn't SOEbay for players to sell farmed items, but seems to be oriented towards blunt and simple outright sales of "stuff".

This strikes me as a far more sane method of dealing with it because it can be controlled more easily and it doesn't involve the exploitation of third world workers and the inherent disruption they make in gamespaces while farming.

If you can read this, you're on a board populated by misogynist assholes.
Riley
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Reply #13 on: June 28, 2006, 01:44:10 PM

Quote
He likens the dilemma to the one the record companies faced when the Internet emerged as a delivery mechanism for music. They still wanted to sell complete CDs at full price, but listeners wanted to be able to purchase songs individually. Enter Apple's iTunes Music Store, and the 99 cent legal download.

Wtf...
MahrinSkel
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Reply #14 on: July 03, 2006, 11:11:53 AM

Bruce's figures are at *least* as accurate as anything I've seen in "White Paper" reports costing thousands of dollars (which are frequently wild ass guesses dressed up in statistical language), and far more accurate than most.  And I've seen Bruce collecting some of his data, usually by the simple expedient of finding someone in a position of authority in an MMO company at a convention and asking them.

He uses the best data available, rates the quality as best he can, and puts it out there where it can be seen.  In the absence of an official "Online Game Operators" industry group, he's the best source available.  All of this is irrelevant to what he does with his personal life.

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Reply #15 on: July 03, 2006, 01:51:15 PM

Bruce's figures are at *least* as accurate as anything I've seen in "White Paper" reports costing thousands of dollars ....
All of this is irrelevant to what he does with his personal life.

Lies!

Every time someone references Bruce's chart, God kills a sheep, a kitten and a panda....

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WayAbvPar
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Reply #16 on: July 03, 2006, 01:59:04 PM

Bruce's figures are at *least* as accurate as anything I've seen in "White Paper" reports costing thousands of dollars ....
All of this is irrelevant to what he does with his personal life.

Lies!

Every time someone references Bruce's chart, God kills a sheep, a kitten and a panda....

And the less that is said about the poor voles, the better.

When speaking of the MMOG industry, the glass may be half full, but it's full of urine. HaemishM

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HaemishM
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Reply #17 on: July 05, 2006, 09:42:01 AM

Bruce's figures are at *least* as accurate as anything I've seen in "White Paper" reports costing thousands of dollars (which are frequently wild ass guesses dressed up in statistical language), and far more accurate than most.  And I've seen Bruce collecting some of his data, usually by the simple expedient of finding someone in a position of authority in an MMO company at a convention and asking them.

He uses the best data available, rates the quality as best he can, and puts it out there where it can be seen.  In the absence of an official "Online Game Operators" industry group, he's the best source available. 

Until he can actually source all of those figures publicly, they are useless, because no one can trust them. Any idiot like me can dispute them and he can't back up the data. But since American journalism has decided that sources and verified information takes too long and isn't important, he's some great analyst whose word should be trusted.

Sure, he can walk up to some MMOG company wog and ask for subscriber numbers and he probably gets them. But if that person's name cannot be used as a source, its unreliable. The only reason anyone listens to him is because as Darniaq has said, no one else compiles the data. Which is a goddamn shame.

Xerapis
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Reply #18 on: July 05, 2006, 09:43:19 AM

You got a website and all.

Do something about it.

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HaemishM
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Reply #19 on: July 05, 2006, 09:47:39 AM

What makes you think I would get any more access to sourceable data than the Furry Shoggoth of the Interweb? Or would really even care to?

The subscriber numbers really mean shit anyway, except for corporate e-peen. Investors with half a brain who are looking to invest in games instead of trying to ride the next big WoW shouldn't give a shit about the subscriber numbers either. The real interesting numbers are in profit per subscriber, cost of acquisition of customers (new vs. recurring), profit differences between the HUGE games, the big games and the indy games.

Xerapis
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Reply #20 on: July 05, 2006, 09:53:54 AM

~cough~

Well, if it seems that no one can do any better......

Then..err...

Oh, never mind.

~hides~

..I want to see gamma rays. I want to hear x-rays. I want to...smell dark matter...and feel the solar wind of a supernova flowing over me...
HaemishM
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Reply #21 on: July 05, 2006, 09:55:08 AM

People are doing better, they are just charging for the data. And the people seriously interested in investing are paying the money. People who want to invest on the cheap listen to furries on the Interweb.

And us.

Xerapis
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Reply #22 on: July 05, 2006, 10:02:24 AM

Oh, I see.

Wait....people listen to us, or we are cheap and listen to furries?

Who has all the great data but charges for it then?  Evil investment advisory group types?

..I want to see gamma rays. I want to hear x-rays. I want to...smell dark matter...and feel the solar wind of a supernova flowing over me...
HaemishM
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Reply #23 on: July 05, 2006, 10:08:37 AM

NPD is one of those groups, big-time research firm that does a whole shitload of chart-type statistical analysis of the video game industry.

And yes, the people who listen to us are the ones too cheap to get real market data, like the current MMOG companies.

tkinnun0
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Reply #24 on: July 05, 2006, 11:50:31 AM

People are doing better, they are just charging for the data.

What is your confidence rating on that statement? A, B, C, D, E or wishful thinking?
HaemishM
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Reply #25 on: July 05, 2006, 12:08:39 PM

I don't need confidence ratings to quantify my statements, because my source is my own addled mind.

Lum
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Reply #26 on: July 05, 2006, 12:28:19 PM

My confidence in Haemish's brain: C+
HaemishM
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Reply #27 on: July 05, 2006, 12:30:39 PM

I did extra credit, I should at least get a B!

Righ
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Reply #28 on: July 05, 2006, 07:59:09 PM

People need to pull some numbers out of their arse about churn rates. It's a pretty important statistic about subscriber services, and missed out of most of the incoherent twaddle about subscribers.

The camera adds a thousand barrels. - Steven Colbert
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Reply #29 on: July 05, 2006, 08:36:31 PM

A churn rate is more important than subscriber numbers. DISCUSS.
damijin
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Reply #30 on: July 05, 2006, 08:41:18 PM

I can make a really bad free game with a huge churn rate by mass advertising and getting millions of people to log in once. DISCUSS.
HaemishM
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Reply #31 on: July 06, 2006, 01:24:34 PM

I can make a really bad free game with a huge churn rate by mass advertising and getting millions of people to log in once. DISCUSS.

You must be a Korean MMOG marketing executive.

And yes, churn rate is a big stat that no one talks about, as is average length of subscription, number of multiple account holders, and average concurrency logins. The last one only gets press when it breaks a record, and Eve pwns all.

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