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f13.net  |  f13.net General Forums  |  News  |  Topic: Merrill Lynch knows more about the PS3 launch than you, noob. 0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.
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Author Topic: Merrill Lynch knows more about the PS3 launch than you, noob.  (Read 3787 times)
schild
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Posts: 60345


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on: February 18, 2006, 03:36:25 PM

Quote
PlayStation 3 to be delayed?
February 17, 2006 5:18 PM PST
The North American launch of Sony's much-anticipated PlayStation 3 could be delayed until next year, according to a research report issued by Merrill Lynch.

In the report (Click here for PDF), the analyst firm proposed the idea that high costs and Sony's decision to use an "ambitious new processor architecture--the Cell" is making it look like the company might not be able to meet its goal of getting the PS 3 out in the U.S. this year.

The report suggests the possibility that the PS 3 would launch this fall in Japan and in late 2006 or early 2007 in the U.S.

Naturally, it's impossible to know what will really happen with the PS 3, as Sony has maintained a policy of being about as tight-lipped as it could be. But there's no doubt that any significant delay in the next-gen console's launch would be a big black eye for the company, especially since Microsoft has had its Xbox 360 out since last November.

Sony did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

In the end, we probably won't know what's going to happen until at least May, when the video game world converges on Los Angeles for E3, the industry's biggest gathering. But it's looking more and more like Sony may be forced to keep mum even there, and that certainly wouldn't play well.

via CNET

Ok, not shocking. Sony has never had their shit together on console launches. I just thought it was interesting that it was on CNET but not Gamespot.

YOU CAN'T STOP THE HYPE MACHINE. EVEN IF YOU OWN THE HYPE MACHINE.
Trippy
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Posts: 23620


Reply #1 on: February 18, 2006, 07:41:17 PM

Those Merrill Lynch "Analysts" are pulling numbers out of their asses.

First of all, apparently math is too hard for those guys since their numbers don't add up:

230 + 70 + 350  + 50 + 5 + 5 + 5 + 5 + 80 = 800

Where the fuck is the missing $100?

Moving on to some of the easy stuff: $5 for USB and $5 for Bluetooth? WTF? I can buy a USB card and a Bluetooth dongle for $10 each. There's no way it's costing Sony $10 for that stuff.

Blu-Ray drive for $350? What are those Analysts smoking? Both Samsung and Phillips are coming out with Blu-Ray *Recorders* for around $500. There's no way a non-recording Blu-Ray drive is going to cost Sony $350 in raw manufacturing costs. The Inquirer had a brief article a while back saying the Blu-Ray drive was going to cost Sony $100. Now he was pulling a number out of his ass as well but that's a lot more believable than $350.

$230 for the Cell CPU. Okay that's more believable. If you assume $4000 for the wafer cost and a 10% yield and crunch the numbers you get a chip cost of about $210. Of course that assumes a low low yield of 10% and while 90nm SOI process on 300mm wafers is newer technology, it's not that new -- Athlon 64s are made in that exact way and have been for a while and IBM's 300mm fab plant is one of the best in the world. Let's compare the Cell to some other CPUs:

Cell:
- 90nm SOI manufacturing process
- 221 mm2 die area
- 234M transistors

Intel Pentium D (dual core):
- 90nm strained silicon manufacturing process
- 206 mm2 die area
- 230M transistors

Athlon 64 X2
- 90nm SOI manufacturing process
- 147 mm2 die area
- 154M transistors

The Pentium D is pretty close to the Cell in die specs (though the Cell is a more complicated design overall) and a 3.2 GHz Pentium D (same clock speed as Cell) is $378.00 at newegg.com right now. Intel has >50% *gross* margins on their products (not just margin based on manufacturing costs) and while margins on individual products obviously vary that would imply the Pentium D chip costs Intel no more than around $150 to make and its probably quite a bit less since Intel's manufacturing prowess is unmatched. So again the $230 estimate for the Cell is not totally unreasonable though probably a bit high.

So let's keep the CPU estimate as is, chop the Blu-Ray drive price in half (still more than the $100 guess by the Inquirer) and throw out the extraneous Bluetooth and USB numbers (subsumed by the $80 misc category) and we get:

230 + 70 + 175  + 50 + 5 + 5 + 80 = $615

That's quite a bit less than the $900 Merrill Lynch is claiming.
schild
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Posts: 60345


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Reply #2 on: February 18, 2006, 07:46:12 PM

There's a fair chance that most gaming analysts know very little about the actual gaming industry. I'm not claiming to know more, I'm just saying - look at the "analysts" we've had contact with...
Margalis
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Posts: 12335


Reply #3 on: February 19, 2006, 01:01:25 PM

Most analysts know very little about any industry.

vampirehipi23: I would enjoy a book written by a monkey and turned into a movie rather than this.
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