NFL 2014

[Paelos]

The Heisman circus would have gone through the roof except:

1 - Jameis is now a confirmed shithead, so he's out.
2 - Todd Gurley is a confirmed moron, so he's out.
3 - Oregon got embarrassed by Arizona, so less people are jazzed about Mariota.
4 - Dak Prescott still has his two biggest games left, so he's not proven yet.

The rest of the players involved are frankly small name. Melvin Gordon? Trevone Boykin? Amari Cooper?

[shiznitz]

This week produced probably some of the most unwatchable football games I've seen in a while.


Jets? Over in the first quarter. 17 unanswered.

I have to disagree here. The Jets could have collapsed and lost by 10 at almost any point.  I don't understand the Steelers going for 3 from the 7, down my 17 with 9 minutes to go.  Yes, one could argue they were going to need a FG at some point to tie but they were playing the goddamn Jets.  I think a little more will to win was needed.  As it was, if the missed FG had been a TD, then Pittsburgh would have forced OT, the Jest would have become demoralized and likely lost the game.

[HaemishM]

What a weekend of NFL laughs.

Bears... you aren't even deserving of a LOL anymore. It's just goddamn embarrassing. I'd say that the Packers should apologize to the Bears' fans for that shit, but frankly, the goddamn Bears ought to be the ones apologizing. That was fucking woeful. You cannot go out there and lay 2 straight eggs like that (if you count the New England debacle) in a year when you have this much talent on offense, especially after you just re-signed your franchise QB to a big-money contract. You just can't be this fucking bad. I can't even point to one aspect of the whole thing and say "That's why you suck." Sure, their line is hurt and makeshift but it's not like the line was simply overwhelmed. Cutler missed throws, balls were dropped and drives just petered out without any real fanfare of stinkiness. Now, the defense, on the other hand... the defense is beyond JV. Both of the Jordy Nelson long bomb TD's, the corners covering him just gave up on the coverage. It looked like they were playing zone coverage, didn't read the receiver's route at all and expected the safeties to bail them out over the top. The safeties meanwhile didn't get that memo and were nowhere to be found. On the first one, there was only a single safety covering the entire field and the corner just left Nelson to do a fly route down the numbers as if he had two safeties deep getting his back. I don't even know how that shit happens, not once but three times (it happened again on the pass interference call). That defense should all be out of a job. Just fucking terrible. Also, Chris Collinsworth needed to stop jizzing over Clay Matthews moving inside. It isn't like Matthews has never done coverage before, and he's played pass rush up the middle a number of times this year. I mean, he's a good player but stop slobbering his knob, guy.

The Miami/Detroit game was good and yes, Detroit is for real with that defense. The defense not making a shitton of stupid mistakes is a huge improvement over last year but the biggest one is that they can actually cover receivers. That on top of a fantastic D line means their offense doesn't have to score 40 points a game like last year. Which keeps Stafford from stepping on his dick. The difference in coaching from shithead Jim Schwarz to calm/boring Jim Caldwell is the difference in making the playoffs or not.

Too bad about Carson Palmer. I hope Stanton can do the job because luckily their offense doesn't require the QB to be a game-changer. As long as he doesn't throw tons of picks, that team should be fine because their defense is spectacular. Also too bad that San Fran won. Now we have to wait another week or two before we can write them out of the playoffs. 

[01101010]

I have to disagree here. The Jets could have collapsed and lost by 10 at almost any point.  I don't understand the Steelers going for 3 from the 7, down my 17 with 9 minutes to go.  Yes, one could argue they were going to need a FG at some point to tie but they were playing the goddamn Jets.  I think a little more will to win was needed.  As it was, if the missed FG had been a TD, then Pittsburgh would have forced OT, the Jest would have become demoralized and likely lost the game.

The made a 53 yard field goal then shanked a 23 yarder was just about priceless for the Steelers.

Best part was a local buddy was asking everyone who to take this weekend, Big Ben or P.Manning. I live in Pittsburgh... guess who everyone agreed upon. 

[Rasix]

Another thrilling game. 

[Paelos]

Want to make some money? Bet against the NFC South. It's like stealing right now.

[Fordel]

I think it's maybe just the fact there are so few games in a NFL season, but why do bad teams seem so like... EXTRA terrible in football then other sports.

[Paelos]

I think it's maybe just the fact there are so few games in a NFL season, but why do bad teams seem so like... EXTRA terrible in football then other sports.

I brought it up earlier in the thread somewhere, but I pointed this out before. The division between good and bad teams is getting worse in the NFL, and it has to do entirely with the timing of the salary cap in my mind.

Veterans are now unwieldy and expensive. That means every NFL team is trying to get younger and cheaper. The downside with a bunch of younger players suddenly starting in the NFL is that they are usually dumb as shit and not up to game speed. Meaning the depth of these teams is horrific, and if anything goes wrong at line positions or defensive back, you're hosed.

Instead of teams of competitive veterans across the board, we're seeing teams that are either in the right cap and can afford their vets, or teams that are rebuilding and will completely suck. The turnover now is absurd. The Ravens won a super bowl in 2012, and there are now 7 people on the roster from that team. Why? Because they had to pay Flacco and that wrecked their cap.

It's a league of haves and have-nots now, and the windows are ridiculously short. If Seattle doesn't win this year again, they are boned soon because their QB will come up for a contract, and that will wreck them just like Baltimore. It happens everywhere. You are okay until you have to pay your QB, then you have to rebuild.

[Mithas]

I agree that the cap plays a big role, however there are teams that are perennial contenders with a QB with a big contract. I think two other factors play a huge role.

1. Who is your QB?
2. How have your last few drafts gone?

If you have a top-half of the league QB you have a chance. If you've got a top 10 QB you are a contender and you will make other defenses look silly. If that QB isn't having a good season or is injured, forget it. If you've had a few drafts not turn out very well, you are screwed. That also ties to Paelos's point. Teams are increasingly reliant on developing cheap young talent and if they are busts, you are going to feel it for a few years.

[HaemishM]

It's actually a bit more complicated than that.

1) With the rookie wage scale, there is NO downside to signing a shitload of rookies and younger players. They will be infinitely cheaper than anyone who has passed their 4th or 5th year and is on their 2nd contract. Veterans? They are too expensive and prone to injury whereas you can plug a rookie or undrafted free agent into that slot at league minimum. The mid-range veteran who has 5 or 6 years of seasoning and maturity? That motherfucker isn't getting a job anymore. As a result, there are few mature veterans in most locker rooms for the young and dumb to learn anything from - there are only star players who don't have to mix with the riff-raff who likely won't be there next season. Green Bay has been living off this for years and they do it better than most but that defense is suffering from a severe lack of veteran presence. I almost think their Super Bowl win in 2010 was a bit of a fluke because I don't think they'll have enough presence through the draft to make that team a Super Bowl contender before they have to let their 4th and 5th year guys go due to salary cap concerns. This could happen next year as Randall Cobb is not signed to an extension and is likely going to get paid somewhere else.
2) Mandated limits on practice time. Injuries are WAY up since the last collective bargaining agreement specified a limit on the amount of contact practice, OTA's and training camp work that could be done. This is affecting player fitness and certain injuries are getting way more prominent - hamstrings, groins, ACL/MCL.
3) Concussion protocols means guys are getting pulled off the field quicker and left out of the game whereas in the old days they'd "rub dirt on it and walk it off." This leads to:
4) The idiotic roster sizes are still set at 53 with only 46 active roster spots on game day. This is to keep the money spent on salaries down. However, this means there is less depth on game day than their should be, and less depth period with the increase in injuries as well as the increase in guys getting pulled off the field for concussion protocols. There's also the problem of so few injured reserve slots - basically, if a guy gets an injury that takes more than half the season to heal, he's either going to get cut or put on injured reserve and is done for the season. Only one guy per roster gets to come back within the season. So since you aren't paying vets, and more guys are getting hurt and taking up dead space on rosters, you're filling what holes you can with... you guessed it, young street guys who weren't able to make rosters before for whatever reason. So depth is totally fucked.

And of course, the rules favor explosive offenses that create blowouts and make defending impossible.

[kaid]

I agree that the cap plays a big role, however there are teams that are perennial contenders with a QB with a big contract. I think two other factors play a huge role.

1. Who is your QB?
2. How have your last few drafts gone?

If you have a top-half of the league QB you have a chance. If you've got a top 10 QB you are a contender and you will make other defenses look silly. If that QB isn't having a good season or is injured, forget it. If you've had a few drafts not turn out very well, you are screwed. That also ties to Paelos's point. Teams are increasingly reliant on developing cheap young talent and if they are busts, you are going to feel it for a few years.

If you look at green bay you can see a team working the new salary cap system pretty well. They do almost nothing in free agency one stat they had in the last game was there currently are 5 players on the active roster who have played for teams other than the packers. All their other players are draft picks and people the packers hand picked and groomed to their positions. The bear team I believe they said had 31 players who had been on other teams previously.

[HaemishM]

Interesting analysis of margin of victory in this year's NFL.

Conclusion is that the average margin of victory and competitiveness of the league overall isn't that crazy off from last year. However, if you just look at the prime-time games this season, they have been incredibly lopsided compared to previous years.

[Paelos]

Games decided by less than a TD dropping 10% in one year is enormous. That really confirms how ridiculous this season has been.

I totally disagree with this point:

Margin of victory isn't always a complete representative of competitiveness, of course. The Seattle Seahawks, for example, were tied at 17 with the New York Giants after three quarters last Sunday before scoring 21 unanswered points to close the game. A 38-17 final doesn't indicate that the game was closely contested for its first 45 game minutes. So we also took a look at win probability, an advanced statistical model based on years of results that assigns a likelihood of a team winning based on the score and situation at any moment in the game.

When somebody tells you something obvious, and then tells you they are about to use "advanced math" to make you believe something ridiculously counter-intuitive, they are full of shit. The margin stuff evens out. One team pulling away is evened out by teams closing the gap in garbage time. Usually, looking at margin is a pretty good way to represent competitiveness. It's not "complete" which is another bullshit word number manipulators like to use, but it's good enough to make the point.

The fact remains, this is the highest average margin of victory since 2001. No, I don't care that it's not a lot higher than other years. It's the highest. Period. #1. Games are lopsided. Spreads are ridiculous.

More importantly I can see with my eyeballs that it's true, as can other fans. While primetime games may skew perception, I can assure the lopsided games I've seen of the Falcons locally weren't always national. People get the local feel of this too. The funny part is the fix is very very easy. Up the salary cap to put it in line with the times. From 2006 to 2009 the cap increased $22M. Since then it's increased only $10M. The current cap should be closer to $150M than $133M, but NFL owners are greedy fucks.

So we get this product with more stupid rules, more flags, less veterans, less practice, and as a result worse play. And honestly worse play is the only thing that will keep people from watching. They have proven they don't give a shit about anything off the field at all, but the product on the field is a different story.

[HaemishM]

I'm not sure they give a shit about the on the field either, so long as touchdowns and scoring remain high. They seem to think viewers like track meet games, and they continue to utterly cripple defenses ability to stop it. Part of that is the "safety" issues of head traumas, but part of it is just making it impossible for a defender to defend a pass that isn't thrown directly to them.

[Paelos]

I'm not sure they give a shit about the on the field either, so long as touchdowns and scoring remain high. They seem to think viewers like track meet games, and they continue to utterly cripple defenses ability to stop it. Part of that is the "safety" issues of head traumas, but part of it is just making it impossible for a defender to defend a pass that isn't thrown directly to them.

I think they are drawing false conclusions. Fans like interesting games, and they do like points. They don't like blowouts. The problem is that as you increase points, and you decrease parity through the cap and rules, they will have more blowouts.

If anything I can say that fantasy football has become a huge problem in this regard. They are reworking the game to pander to a fake game. It's insane.

[HaemishM]

Thing is, I don't think they are decreasing overall parity - teams are going from worst to first or at least to playoffs from one season to next, and most of the divisional races are competitive. But the games themselves don't seem to be nearly as competitive. They are looking at trees and misunderstanding what a forest is.

[Ruvaldt]

And honestly worse play is the only thing that will keep people from watching. They have proven they don't give a shit about anything off the field at all, but the product on the field is a different story.

Is it though?  Sunday Night Football is #1 in primetime and it has had several blowouts.  Of the 30 most watched shows this Fall 26 were football games.  People are watching football in higher numbers this year than any year before it.

If what you wrote is true that people won't tune in for bad football, and the games are worse this year, we should be seeing lower ratings.  We're not.  I'm not disagreeing with the rest of your point, but I think you're ignoring the fact that viewers don't seem to care.  In fact, primetime viewership has doubled this year.

If anything, viewership this year might reinforce the NFL's attitudes.

[Trippy]

The fact remains, this is the highest average margin of victory since 2001.

No it's not. Read the chart or the text*. The chart ends at 2001 and the margin of victory was 11.1 in 2001. Of the years on that chart it is the highest since 2009 by a whopping 0.02 points per game. I don't remember you saying the sky was falling back then.

* "The average margin of victory for all games this season is 12.99, the highest margin since at least 2001"

[naum]

3) Concussion protocols means guys are getting pulled off the field quicker and left out of the game whereas in the old days they'd "rub dirt on it and walk it off." This leads to:
4) The idiotic roster sizes are still set at 53 with only 46 active roster spots on game day. This is to keep the money spent on salaries down. However, this means there is less depth on game day than their should be, and less depth period with the increase in injuries as well as the increase in guys getting pulled off the field for concussion protocols. There's also the problem of so few injured reserve slots - basically, if a guy gets an injury that takes more than half the season to heal, he's either going to get cut or put on injured reserve and is done for the season. Only one guy per roster gets to come back within the season. So since you aren't paying vets, and more guys are getting hurt and taking up dead space on rosters, you're filling what holes you can with... you guessed it, young street guys who weren't able to make rosters before for whatever reason. So depth is totally fucked.

This kind of exacerbates itself -- especially by the middle of the season, half the team (or greater) is already nursing injuries, and yet at certain positions only have 2 backups. Many games the Steelers dressed only 7 offensive linemen -- and half of them were already playing with injuries, then 2 go down during the game, and you know guys are just nutting it up. But that just translates to even more serious injury problems.

And with more concussion awareness, that means more guys are going to tough it out with non-concussion injuries.

They really should dress 50+ a game (or make players play both offense and defense :D) -- it's not like NFL franchises are hurting for money.

[Paelos]

The fact remains, this is the highest average margin of victory since 2001.

No it's not. Read the chart or the text*. The chart ends at 2001 and the margin of victory was 11.1 in 2001. Of the years on that chart it is the highest since 2009 by a whopping 0.02 points per game. I don't remember you saying the sky was falling back then.

* "The average margin of victory for all games this season is 12.99, the highest margin since at least 2001"

I wasn't upset back then. 2009 was mostly an anomaly at the time, and I was mostly intrigued by the fact the Cowboys weren't shitting the bed in the regular season. I'll admit it. Indy and NOLA were basically undefeated though for a large portion of that year. I remember several topics about how teams could go undefeated in the NFL if they didn't rest players. Were they just that good, or had the league fallen behind? It was also a lot of Peyton and Drew gushing. This was also on the heels of 2008 when Detroit managed to shit the bed 16 times and set history.

Now I'm looking around and I'm seeing that the NFC has 7 teams with 3 or less wins thru week 10. The NFC South is literally the worst it's ever been in the history of the division. It's entirely under .500.

There's some weird history happening here. Will it affect the viewership? Nah, not immediately. If anything I hoped it would because the NFL has been quick to adjust. I have given up on that though. At some point games will just be 70-55, and I'll be too old for them to give a shit what I think about the neon flashing light shoes and 3 point conversions.

[Velorath]

Now I'm looking around and I'm seeing that the NFC has 7 teams with 3 or less wins thru week 10. The NFC South is literally the worst it's ever been in the history of the division. It's entirely under .500.

The NFC South is pretty much in the same position the NFC West was 4-5 years back.

[Paelos]

Now I'm looking around and I'm seeing that the NFC has 7 teams with 3 or less wins thru week 10. The NFC South is literally the worst it's ever been in the history of the division. It's entirely under .500.

The NFC South is pretty much in the same position the NFC West was 4-5 years back.

Yes, the NFC West was terrible in 2008-09. The 2008 version had an OOD record of 10-30. They were the worst division in all of football since 2002.

That being said, the NFC South is 5-19 OOD this year. They are on pace to fall behind that record as the worst division in a decade plus. But wait, there's more! The AFC South is only 8-19, on pace to finish in the bottom 10 of the NFL divisions of the decade as well.

I think we may see a new title holder as the worst division for a while with the NFC South. There's no real redeeming teams there beyond the Saints. The Falcons are going to be mired in a rebuilding phase for a while. Tampa is wretched. Carolina has a terrible set of weapons around a mental midget QB with an inflated ego. Drew Brees has maybe 4 good years left.

[Velorath]

Now I'm looking around and I'm seeing that the NFC has 7 teams with 3 or less wins thru week 10. The NFC South is literally the worst it's ever been in the history of the division. It's entirely under .500.

The NFC South is pretty much in the same position the NFC West was 4-5 years back.

Yes, the NFC West was terrible in 2008-09. The 2008 version had an OOD record of 10-30. They were the worst division in all of football since 2002.

2010 wasn't any better. The OOD record wasn't as bad (although not by a huge margin), but that was the year the Seahawks won the division with a 7-9 record.

[Mithas]

I give up on trying to guess what is going to happen in the NFL this year. Saints offense doesn't look good against a Cincinnati team that has looked awful lately. The Broncos offense can't get anything going against the Rams.

[Paelos]

Denver doing what I expected. Lulz.

[Nebu]

How about dem Seahawks?

[Paelos]

How about dem Seahawks?

I hear they are a dynasty. Just ask their fans. 

[Megrim]

 

[Malakili]

My favorite part of this week is that Atlanta is now leading their division. 

[Bunk]

Hey, Chicago figured out how to hold a team under 50 points!

[Shannow]

My favorite part of this week is that Atlanta is now leading their division. 

I think we should revoke the NFC South's divisional privileges.

The Rams have now beaten both the Seahawks and the Broncos ..

[Paelos]

How bout those Falcons?

I mean I would really REALLY enjoy them getting the playoff game at home, and have Green Bay show up against as the best wild card. What could happen?    Haemish?

[HaemishM]

We're going to find out in 2 weeks.  Hint: home or the road, the Packers will utterly destroy the Falcons. Things went well for the cheeseheads yesterday. Not only did they slap the shit out of Mark Sanchez (thus awakening him from his fairytale sleep and back to the reality that he is a shitty, inconsistent, wildly inaccurate NFL QB), they embarrassed the Philly defense, put themselves ahead of Philly and Seattle in the wild card race (though that was Seattle shitting the bed against KC) and Detroit lost to Arizona which while still putting the Lions ahead in the division, means that they are tied on record. I think the Packers still need to win that division to ensure a playoff spot but things certainly look better.

Arizona is a good team and they won against a good defense in the Lions. I can't help but think though that the Lions' offense has taken a step backward under Caldwell. They aren't airing it out like they used to (and thus Stafford's numbers are suffering) but it seems like they aren't able to score at will like they were under Schwarz. They are still a scary team though because of how good that defense is.

Oh Cleveland - you just can't take anyone thinking your good, can you? You made Ryan Mallett look competent. I see that nobody wants to win the the AFC South outright, they are all going to fuck around and leave it to some weird ass tiebreaker on the last day of the season. Of course, Pittsburgh could shit the bed against a shitty Titans team, but I doubt it.

They should rename the Rams to the Giantkillers. They are putting up some impressive wins against teams they have no right be able to compete against. 7 fucking points Denver? REALLY?

Indy showed that they have no running game against an even moderately competent defense, and with Bradshaw out they will have even less of one. I think they should cut their losses with Trent Richardson at the end of the year. Their defense also has a very soft center, as a practice squad scrub just fucking steamrolled them. Also fuck that practice squad scrub for keeping Brady from throwing 4 TD's. My fantasy team needed him.

Fuck the NFC South. Just fuck them all. They are all shitty, flawed, horrible fucking teams.

I think Eli needs a hug today.

[Shannow]

I think Eli needs a hug today.

 

[Hoax]

The Niners are continuing to fall apart though. In what universe does a game against a guy with 5 picks come down to a final drive? They should have buried Eli but instead they looked weak and there for the taking for much of a day. I worry for their playoff chances but I still think IF they can make it they can find the higher gear and do damage if Kapernick and be sorted out.

re: Seattle. I think the Chiefs are a real team and I thought that game was played with a playoff intensity and people forget that Arrowhead has often been considered a very tough place to play so that loss wouldn't be a huge deal if not for all the other not so understandable losses and the fact that they are probably going to need a win either in SF or Philly if not both to keep the playoff dream alive. I'm assuming they are going to paste the Cardinals at home. I wonder what the line on that game will be could be a good bet there..

The game I caught none of and I haven't figured out is what happened to Denver.

Games that matter played by two real* football teams next week:
Browns vs Falcons (what a world we live in but one of them is going to play themselves out of the playoffs here most likely, be interesting to see which team can actually show up with a lot on the line)
Pats vs Lions (all I ever hear is about how good the Lions dline is, Brady hates getting roughed up but I expect this game to make it official that the Lions aren't a real playoff threat even if they can make it, they have 1 and done written all over them)
Cards vs Hawks (I still say chalk this one up for Seattle in Seattle)
Fins vs Broncos (IF the dolphins wanted me to find a reason to start paying them even a tiny bit of attention they will at least make a game out of this, I doubt it)
Ravens vs Saints (I guess if the Browns AND Ravens win then the NFC south race will still be neck and neck at 4-7! NFC South 2014 baby!)