2013 NFL Super Bowl Prediction Challenge

[Ghambit]

Did you watch Wilson at all last year??

[sickrubik]

Man, I think Ghambit is drinking the Seattle Kool Aid more than I'm drinking the Denver Kool Aid.

[Paelos]

Did you watch Wilson at all last year??

Explain to me how that matters at all? Here's what I know. In the playoffs this season he's had 1 TD, period. He's not running the ball in the playoffs at all. He's managed to pass for about 300 yards across two games.

Let me be clear, HE HASN'T BEEN A FACTOR IN THIS PLAYOFFS. I mean shit, he literally fumbled the game away on the first play against SF and his defense said, don't worry we got this. If they don't hold SF to a 3, that game goes 14-3 at the half, and has a totally different outlook.

His team is barely cresting 21 points each game. Meanwhile you have a Denver team that on their absolute dog-cussing worst day puts up 20 easy. I don't know what you're watching, tbh. This is no easy game for Seattle, and they are underdogs in Vegas on a neutral field because of that.

[Ingmar]

I don't see bad weather being a tremendous advantage for Seattle, personally.

[WayAbvPar]

They are underdogs in Vegas because the overwhelming majority of the early money is on the Broncos. They opened at 2 or 2.5 point favorites.

[naum]

This is a hard contest to handicap.

Best defense v. best offense. But Denver defense not too shabby and Seattle offense is not clicking up points.

OTOH, hard to get a gauge on competition caliber as NFC, this season, has better teams (I think even the Cardinals who didn't qualify were better than half the AFC playoff teams).

All indication is that Wilson will struggle, even young QB who excel in playoffs falter in SB.

I guess the question is will Seattle defense be able to stymie Manning? Enough to keep him under 20 points which looks like the mark Seattle offense will be hard pressed to exceed.

[Chimpy]

Man, I think Ghambit is drinking the Seattle Kool Aid more than I'm drinking the Denver Kool Aid smoking crack.

Fixed.

[Ghambit]

<erased>
Bah!  You'll see.

[Surlyboi]

Denver by a hair.

[ghost]

Denver

[sickrubik]

Denver, by two scores.

[Cyrrex]

Oooh, that's bold.  I think you have to go back a ways to find the last time Seattle lost by two scores or more.

[sickrubik]

Two scores can be as little as 9, to be fair.

[Nebu]

Two scores can be as little as 9 4, to be fair.

FIFY

[Cyrrex]

Still....November 6, 2011.  Dallas beat them by 10.  That's even farther back than I expected, unless I missed something. 

(I assume Nebu is being sarcastic)

[sickrubik]

I have my reasons, but most of it will get tossed out with the "bias", which I can't necessarily disagree with totally. I just don't see it being close.

[Nebu]

(I assume Nebu is being sarcastic)

No.  Two scores could be two safeties.  That's 4 points.

Can you tell I was a defensive guy? 

[Cyrrex]

I can tell that you took too many blows to the head, that's what I can tell 

We'll stick to the traditional definition of "more than 8 points" for the duration of this conversation.

[Ghambit]

Here are some good reasons why Seattle will likely win:
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1937931-super-bowl-odds-five-reasons-why-seattle-seahawks-will-win-super-bowl-xlviii

This is b4 considering the dynamics of Wilson; who people seem to forget went to the pro bowl twice and has been the most prolific 'rookie' QB in NFL history; on a team w/o Harvin and that mostly runs the ball for that matter.  

He doesn't lose this game unless he decides to show up like mini-me.

As for Peyton and the Broncos offense, I leave you with this:

“Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face.”

― Mike Tyson

[sickrubik]

Russel Wilson has a QBR of 34.3 in the playoffs. That's why he is the x-factor for me. The path of  victory for the Seahawks rests squarely on his shoulders.

[Cyrrex]

Russel Wilson has a QBR of 34.3 in the playoffs. That's why he is the x-factor for me. The path of  victory for the Seahawks rests squarely on his shoulders.

Yeah, he is in a slump to be certain.  He is way better than he has shown the last few games.  To me, it is not a question of whether or not he is good enough, it's a question of whether or not he'll break out of this skid.  That said, he seems to excel in big games and/or big moments.

I am also sort of wondering why we haven't seen hardly any designed running or read/option from him in a long while, other than once or twice a game.  Part of me thinks they have been deliberately putting a lid on it until they need it.  We'll see.

[sickrubik]

To me, it is not a question of whether or not he is good enough, it's a question of whether or not he'll break out of this skid.

That was 100% my point. I like the kid. Hell, I kinda like the team. They deserve to be here. They are a great, young team.

[naum]

I'll go with Denver -- close game but Manning v. a struggling Wilson puts the Broncos on top.

[shiznitz]

Points matter.  The Seahawks do not score as reliably as the Broncos.  As long as Denver is within 10 points in the 4Q, they can come back as stomp out any lead Lynch has managed to scrape out.

[Cyrrex]

Points matter.  The Seahawks do not score as reliably as the Broncos.  As long as Denver is within 10 points in the 4Q, they can come back as stomp out any lead Lynch has managed to scrape out.

Hmm.  That defense tends to get super nasty in close games in the 4th quarter.  The offense seems to be able to find magic in big moments, too.  I think Denver's path to winning is by dominating the first three quarters.  The last thing Denver wants is anything resembling a close game, they need to create some distance early.

[HaemishM]

If Denver is down less than a TD in the 4th quarter, my money is on Peyton Motherfucking Manning to win the game.

[shiznitz]

Cyrrex, I think that is always optimal.  I am not trying to belittle your comment, but falling behind by 2 TDs or more in the NFL is usually the kiss of death - unless you have Brady or Manning, P as your QB.

[01101010]

Cyrrex, I think that is always optimal.  I am not trying to belittle your comment, but falling behind by 2 TDs or more in the NFL is usually the kiss of death - unless you have Brady or Manning, P as your QB.

or Luck, actually.

[Cyrrex]

It is relevant to this discussion specifically because that is how Denver wins.  

If Denver is down less than a TD in the 4th quarter, my money is on Peyton Motherfucking Manning to win the game.

I would probably make that same bet, but I wouldn't feel good about it.  Cold weather, a ridiculously good secondary on the other side of the field, and a QB that has shown he can crumble in huge situations despite how we might otherwise feel about him.  Denver doesn't want to be in that situation.  

For the record, I think Peyton is the best ever.  I also think he chokes more than his fair share.

[HaemishM]

If the shoes on the other foot, I'm not putting money on Russell Wilson, no matter what I think of his abilities.

With the slanting towards passing that the league rules give, all it takes is one ref with an itchy flag hand to utterly ruin Seattle's defensive stops in the end zone.

[Cyrrex]

If the shoes on the other foot, I'm not putting money on Russell Wilson, no matter what I think of his abilities.

With the slanting towards passing that the league rules give, all it takes is one ref with an itchy flag hand to utterly ruin Seattle's defensive stops in the end zone.

It tends to be the defense itself, or Lynch that pulls off the actual heroics.  Russell has shown he can do it, but again...the slump.

Good point about the refs, though.  That'll be the game within the game.

[Paelos]

If Denver goes up by more than 14 at any point, I don't think Seattle can come back.

[sickrubik]

So, got a Conference Champs hat. Hopefully this isn't an omen.

[Paelos]

Are you satisfied? 

[sickrubik]

Yeah, that just makes the entire thing extra hilarious. Thankfully NFLShop.com customer service was really easy to deal with.