2013 NFL Super Bowl Prediction Challenge

[Paelos]

That was sort of my point, he's not winning ethical guy of the year awards. Boston fans saying BUT PEYTON GETS TONS OF LOOOOOOOOOVE, don't get the point. If you hate Peyton as a man I question your ethic. If you hate Tom, you have ammo.

[01101010]

So I don't really care who wins the Super Bowl this year. I like both teams equally. I'd like to see Peyton win another to pull even with his brother so that talking point goes away, but I'd also like to see Wilson and the Seahawks finally get a trophy for Seattle. Win-win either way...

that said, I am picking the Broncos. I think Peyton Manning is playing too well this year and has more tools than the Seattle defense can keep up with. Not that Peyton can't shit the bed, but I don't see it happening this year. The only X factor might be Lynch and the run game in Seattle, but the way Denver shut down Blount and Ridley after the Pats ran all over their last two opponents... and I don't think Wilson can win the game for them - he won't lose it for them, but I don't think he is there yet.

[Cyrrex]

I'm a die-hard Seattle fan, but I would have to bet on the Broncos.  I do think the matchup is super intriguing, one of the best in recent memory - because would it surprise me to see that Defense beat up Peyton?  No, not really.  Given two weeks to prepare, however, I think Manning will have just enough time and planning for him to overcome it all.  It could well be a game where Seattle's defense makes him miserable all day, and yet he still puts up 30 points.

I think the x-factors are these:

Will Seattle be able to take away the quick short routes that Denver so loves?  That might be the key to the game.  If they don't have those short options where they get all the Yards After Catch, then Peyton will have to stick to medium and long range stuff, and that plays to Seattle's strengths.  If he can still complete the short stuff?  They will score on them as easily as any other defense.

Will Russel be able to step it up a bit?  The last time he was out of a game was....uh, can't remember a time, maybe early in 2012 or something.  If he has a little extra mojo on game day, that might be enough.  And this is a defense that is ranked lower on average than what he is used to facing.

Still, my head says Broncos.  It seemed destined kinda from the very beginning.

[Nevermore]

I don't dislike Seattle but I'm rooting for Denver so Peyton can get another ring and Welker can give a giant middle finger to Belicheat.

[sickrubik]

Champ needs a ring for that first time ballot to the HoF.

[Bungee]

Seattle. Their O-line and run game are on an entirely different level than what the pats had and they'll run all over Denver's smallish front 7. That and I trust the Seattle D to make some crucial stops and force Peyton into bad throws in bad weather.

[WayAbvPar]

Hoping to see this for 4 quarters-

[Ingmar]

Hoping for a catastrophic ring finger injury to Sherman on the first play, then his severed finger flies through the air and impales Pete Carroll in the eye, causing them both to immediately announce their retirement, and then John Elway trips while running over to help and breaks his hip. After that Marshawn just runs all over everyone and gets a ring.

[Shannow]

lol Ingmar.

A good D with a decent QB and weapons on offense? I'll take Seattle.

[Paelos]

Seattle has weapons? I get to the 4th Denver receiver before I get to the second Seattle guy.

[sickrubik]

Denver's D has really stepped up in the last few games of the season as well as the preseason.

I'll take that good defense with all of the offensive weapons that Denver has.

[Bunk]

[Megrim]

 

[Malakili]

Seattle has weapons? I get to the 4th Denver receiver before I get to the second Seattle guy.

Percy Harvin is a weapon for the 4 plays he'll get before he's knocked out of the game again.

Also: My pick is Denver.

[Phildo]

Denver

[Hoax]

Hoping for a catastrophic ring finger injury to Sherman on the first play, then his severed finger flies through the air and impales Pete Carroll in the eye, causing them both to immediately announce their retirement, and then John Elway trips while running over to help and breaks his hip. After that Marshawn just runs all over everyone and gets a ring.

This works for me. But in general I don't know how closely I'll be watching unless the game is good.

[Nevermore]

I still think if Welker were to win a Super Bowl this year, Belichick would frown so hard his entire face would collapse into a sourpuss singularity.

[Trippy]

My pick: Denver. DENVER. DEEEEEENNNVEEEERRRRRRRRRR.

[veredus]

Seattle.
Wilson makes plays when it matters, Harvin is back and Lynch is fucking Lynch. That along with our D and we got this.

[Mithas]

Seattle.

Manning is due for an off game. Seattle's defense really matches up well against the offense. Seattle's offense only needs to make a few plays to stay in the game. Seattle pulls off a miracle in the last 2 minutes to win.

[Azuredream]

Seattle.

[MrHat]

Going with Denver.

I actually think Seattle chokes in that last 2 min drive.  Simply can't recover ALL those fumbles.

[Paelos]

I'm picking Seattle.

[HaemishM]

Totals through the Championship Games

HaemishM           17
Malakili           16
Nevermore           14
Mithas           13
Shannow           12
Veredus           12
Bungee           12
1101010           12
naum                   11
Trippy           11
Mr. Hat           11
Bunk                   11
Azuredream   11
Cyrrex           11
Ghost            9
Wayabvpar            9
K9                    9
Sickrubik            9
Stewie            8
Chimpy            8
Phildo            7
Paelos            6
shiznitz            6
Surlyboi            4
Ginaz                    4
Hoax                    2

Super Bowl is worth 8 points to avoid the messiness that could be a tie. Ties will be decided by a goddamn coin flip.

My Super Bowl Pick

DUN DUN DUHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

Denver. Obviously.

[Ghambit]

This is Seattle's game to lose.  They're holding all the meaningful advantages in this game:

1)  weather likely
2)  superior/physical run game both from RB and QB position
3)  Peyton is immobile against the best and gnastiest defense in the NFL (this alone to me seals the deal)
4)  Short-pass offenses dont work against great cover-physical defenses like Seattle's  (recall: rams vs. pats and pats superbowl losses).  Chancellor and Thomas are gonna have a field day (nom nom Welker).  They will feast on Denver receivers who will short-arm just like Crabtree by the 3rd Quarter.
5)  Seattle has the best offensive playmakers; that's Wilson, Lynch and Harvin.  Also more overall speed at the WR position.
6)  Marchand Lynch - nuff said.

Seriously, I dont see how people can think Denver has the edge in this game.  This defense will feast on Peyton's style of game and offensively (though anxious to watch) Seattle has the physical run-game and big play capability to beat anyone.

[Stewie]

welp, I cant win but in the interest of completness I'm gonna go ahead and pick Seattle.

[HaemishM]

5)  Seattle has the best offensive playmakers; that's Wilson, Lynch and Harvin.  Also more overall speed at the WR position.

Do not even begin to think Harvin will be a factor in this game. He will sprain a labia during warmups if he's even allowed near the field. As for playmakers, I don't buy Wilson's ability as a playmaker in a big game yet. SF may be a better defense than Denver's but Denver's isn't bad. They will be able to cut out the passing game and contain Lynch. The big question will be can Peyton beat that Seattle defense. I think he can, weather or no. He has 4 really damn good targets at wide receiver and a decent running game. Will they take the short pass away? Sure. Get ready for Peyton to bomb your ass long. It ain't like Peyton lacks for arm strength on the deep ball or like these receivers can't go and get it long.

It will be a great game nonetheless.

[WayAbvPar]

Seattle.

Manning is due for an off game. Seattle's defense really matches up well against the offense. Seattle's offense only needs to make a few plays to stay in the game. Seattle pulls off a miracle in the last 2 minutes to win.

If this game comes down to the last 2 minutes there is a non-zero chance I won't survive it. The NFC Championship game nearly killed me.

[Bunk]

Seattle. I'm counting on bad weather.

[MrHat]

Seattle really only needs to do two things to win:

Run the ball for 3+yards, play action Wilson run around and then bomb it down to the super super super weak Corners of Denver (Champ is old).

Biggest weakness of Denver this year has been that deep bombo.

[Paelos]

This is Seattle's game to lose.  They're holding all the meaningful advantages in this game:

1)  weather likely
2)  superior/physical run game both from RB and QB position
3)  Peyton is immobile against the best and gnastiest defense in the NFL (this alone to me seals the deal)
4)  Short-pass offenses dont work against great cover-physical defenses like Seattle's  (recall: rams vs. pats and pats superbowl losses).  Chancellor and Thomas are gonna have a field day (nom nom Welker).  They will feast on Denver receivers who will short-arm just like Crabtree by the 3rd Quarter.
5)  Seattle has the best offensive playmakers; that's Wilson, Lynch and Harvin.  Also more overall speed at the WR position.
6)  Marchand Lynch - nuff said.

1 - We have no idea in 10 days what it will look like. This will be more of a factor by Wednesday.
2 - Denver is 8th against the run in the NFL, not far behind SF. They are much worse against the pass, but Seattle doesn't excel there. Denver will sell out on the run.
3 - Best pass defense against the best offensive line in the NFL in pass protection. It's not the advantage you think.
4 - Oh really? Arizona does nothing but throw short passes, and they beat the Seahawks in their building, even after throwing 4 picks. The Seattle offense couldn't keep up.
5 - You're high on this. Denver has 4 receivers that eclipse Seattle's two basic guys. Moreno's Y/A is the same as Lynch, and Wilson v. Peyton is a mismatch of epic proportions. Offensively, Seattle holds no advantages.
6 - Reference point about Moreno.

[Ghambit]

Wut?  Tate and Harvin are the two fastest receivers in the Superbowl, period (if you leave out Holliday)...  regardless of bloated "Welkerish" numbers Denver has.  Wilson also counts as an extra runningback in the formation, and can outgun Peyton in the longball.  Note:  I said 'playmakers' not statmakers.

Most importantly, those 4 Denver receivers are moot against that defense.

[Nevermore]

Well, even though I want Denver to win I'm going to pick Seattle mostly due to the weather. (plus it's the only way to overtake Haemish)

[sickrubik]

What the hell does "playmakers" mean?
What does "bloated 'Welkerish' numbers" mean?

Demaryius Thomas: 92 - 1430 - 14
Eric Decker: 87 - 1288 - 11
Julius Thomas: 65 - 788 - 12
Wes Welker: 73 - 778 - 10

[Paelos]

Wut?  Tate and Harvin are the two fastest receivers in the Superbowl, period (if you leave out Holliday)...  regardless of bloated "Welkerish" numbers Denver has.  Wilson also counts as an extra runningback in the formation, and can outgun Peyton in the longball.  Note:  I said 'playmakers' not statmakers.

Most importantly, those 4 Denver receivers are moot against that defense.

Wilson is 6-18 for 4 TDs and 3 picks on passes greater than 31 yards. Peyton's 8-13 for 3 TDs no picks. Wilson can't "outgun" Peyton in any category. At all.

We know Seattle's defense is good, you'll find no arguments there. But please, don't try to sell us that Russell Wilson has been anything special in these playoffs. Seattle's been winning games on defense, kicking, and Lynch.