NFL 2013

[Ingmar]

Sure, now he is, but the whole season he's been avoiding it even though the answer was clear right from the beginning.  He hasn't been fooling anyone.

I don't think it was clear right from the beginning at all. General opinion on Foles was not particularly high until those last couple games.

[HaemishM]

Don't forget the Dallas game, where Foles got rung up and tossed picks before getting pulled due to a concussion. At which point, Matt Barkley came in and developed color blindness so he couldn't tell when he was throwing to the Cowboys or his teammates.

[Paelos]

That's not colorblindness. That's USCQBNFL Syndrome

[ghost]

Sure, now he is, but the whole season he's been avoiding it even though the answer was clear right from the beginning.  He hasn't been fooling anyone.

I don't think it was clear right from the beginning at all. General opinion on Foles was not particularly high until those last couple games.

What are you talking about?  In his first game (when Vick got hurt) Foles threw for 200 yards and 2 TDs.  In the next game he threw for 300 yards and 3 TDs.  Then I believe that he got hurt and they put in Matt Barkley, who sucked monkey dicks.  Mike Vick has thrown 5 TDs, has 3 INTs and 4 fumbles.  He has also rushed for a touchdown, but he has generally sucked complete ass.  Foles has been the right guy from day one. 

[Velorath]

Paelos Week 10 Power Ratings:

1 - Denver
2 - KC
3 - Saints
4 - Seattle
5 - Patriots
6 - Carolina
7 - Detroit
8 - SF
9 - Jets
10 - Philly

Can we just start calling this the "Jets Kiss of Death Award"?

[Mithas]

I do not understand this season.

[sickrubik]

Dear players, cut your hair.

https://twitter.com/Vincemarotta/status/402169474570129408/photo/

I do not understand this season.

I love this season so much.

edit: I CAN NOT DESCRIBE HOW MUCH I HATE COLLINSWORTH.

Edit 2:

[01101010]

 

[Mithas]

How is he not dead?

[Paelos]

Philly is really making a case to be taken seriously in the NFC with Nick Foles at the helm.

[ghost]

And the Giants have won 4 in a row.

[Paelos]

And the Giants have won 4 in a row.

If they beat Dallas in the next week, I'll take them seriously. As it stands, they've beaten three teams with their backup QBs, and the Raiders.

[sickrubik]

So you're saying the Giants are just like the Chiefs?

[Paelos]

Maybe, the biggest talking point of the Chiefs was they haven't played anybody worth a damn until now. They certainly looked pedestrian on offense against a Denver defense that's statistically below average.

[sickrubik]

"statistically" is the important word there. Stats are good for analysis to a degree. Denver's Run D has been top shelf all season, and we had garbage pass defense due to injury and... well, when you get the lead the teams have to abandon the run and go to the air (which does help the stats for the run D obviously too).

However, Chiefs have had the easiest SoS and faced backup QBs and third string QBs.

[Paelos]

They still held Denver to their lowest point total of the year. The Chiefs defense is very good, their offense just wasted a lot of scoring opportunities. The game turned on that stupid fumble after the Chiefs had secured the first turnover of the game. Momentum was there and they blew it.

[sickrubik]

I actually did not claim their defense wasn't very good. It is. We also held them to their lowest of the season. (Mind you, that total happened two others times this season.)

Denver was playing specifically conservative to protect Manning and his creeky ankles. That was the gameplan. When the Broncos scored, the Chiefs could not do much to stop them. The broncos early in the third went into clock management mode and just ground it down. They were playing January football.

Chiefs have an adequate offense. They have a GREAT defense.

[HaemishM]

LOLNFCEAST.  The goddamn GIANTS are back in it. That's how shitty that division is. A team goes 0 and fucking 6 to start the season and is still in contention over halfway through the season. Yes, the Eagles are making a case for being taken somewhat seriously - but they are definitely feasting on an easy and lucky schedule. Green Bay without Rodgers. Two games against the Redskins. And this was their first win at home this season so maybe they are learning something.

The Niners/Saints game was pretty good. That penalty on the Brees hit which essentially lost San Fran the game is a close one. I can see it being called and I can certainly see it not getting called. Letter of the law, it's probably a penalty, though it sure didn't look like he was going for the neck/head area. There are just so many weird, Mickey Mouse "can't hit a guy here or when his body is like this" kind of exceptions to contact rules lately that it must drive defensive players NUTS. We're heading towards goddamn flag football. Also, San Francisco? They now have the same record as Arizona, whose defense is almost as good as San Fran's. And Carson Palmer may be playing better than Kap, whose receivers just cannot get open. Did anyone else's nuts retreat up into their body cavity when they saw the replay on the Jabari Greer injury? FUCK. LEGS ARE NOT MEANT TO BEND LIKE THAT.

Packers - fuckity fuck fuck fuck. I guess I should be thanking my lucky stars it's not Vince Young there, but shit. Can no one but Aaron Rodgers throw TD's in a Packer's uni?

Denver v. KC - this was the game I thought it would be. KC's defense is REALLY GOOD but it's hard to sack a guy when he gets the ball out of his hand so fucking fast. Peyton hardly ever had the ball longer than 2-3 seconds, sometimes a lot less. He got lucky on one throw that was almost a pick 6, and the Broncos got lucky again with that immediate turnover after their first fumble. But the Chiefs offense does not play from behind well. It's just not built that way. However, the disruption caused by the crowd in Denver is going to be reversed in KC, so their offense may function a bit better in 2 weeks time.

[sickrubik]

I think it will be, and I think the Chiefs have a really good chance at stealing that next game. I've thought for weeks we would split the series. Hopefully they lose to SD this week to help the tiebreaker. :P

[Nebu]

The Chiefs are a clock control team (good D and ground game).  They will struggle against any team that can get a lead and hold it.  I don't see them going deep into the playoffs for this reason. 

[01101010]

The Chiefs are a clock control team (good D and ground game).  They will struggle against any team that can get a lead and hold it.  I don't see them going deep into the playoffs for this reason. 

Yeah well, Baltimore won the Superbowl last year, so any twisted thing that can happen, probably will.

[ghost]

I bet the Chiefs lose in the first round of the playoffs.  They just have that shitty, great-in-the-beginning-of-the-season feel to them. 

I can also see the Giants making a run like they did in their two Superbowl years. 

[Yegolev]

Also Giants are still dead to me.

[Paelos]

I like what the Panthers have been doing very quietly. Their defense is great and their offense is functional. If they can beat the Pats, and split the New Orleans series, they have a good shot at winning the NFC South.

[sickrubik]

I bet the Chiefs lose in the first round of the playoffs.  They just have that shitty, great-in-the-beginning-of-the-season feel to them. 

In that equation do you see them not winning the AFC West and taking the first or second seed and a first round bye?

[Malakili]

I bet the Chiefs lose in the first round of the playoffs.  They just have that shitty, great-in-the-beginning-of-the-season feel to them. 

They are the type of team that could walk through the playoffs by winning a bunch of close exciting games.  But they are also the type of team that might just lose a game because they couldn't score enough points and go out in an uneventful 24-10 type of game where it never really feels like they are in it.

I think in this day and age of the NFL it's tough to rely so heavily on your defense.  There's just too much that can go wrong, even if you're defense is playing great, particularly with the prolific offenses these days.  Looking at last year's Playoff scores, the lowest winning score was 19, a few 24s, and after the wild card round the winning teams scored at least 28 in each game.  I'm not sure I trust the Chiefs to put up those kind of numbers when push comes to shove.

[Mithas]

I bet the Chiefs lose in the first round of the playoffs.  They just have that shitty, great-in-the-beginning-of-the-season feel to them. 

They are the type of team that could walk through the playoffs by winning a bunch of close exciting games.  But they are also the type of team that might just lose a game because they couldn't score enough points and go out in an uneventful 24-10 type of game where it never really feels like they are in it.

I think in this day and age of the NFL it's tough to rely so heavily on your defense.  There's just too much that can go wrong, even if you're defense is playing great, particularly with the prolific offenses these days.  Looking at last year's Playoff scores, the lowest winning score was 19, a few 24s, and after the wild card round the winning teams scored at least 28 in each game.  I'm not sure I trust the Chiefs to put up those kind of numbers when push comes to shove.

Exactly. The days of playing old fashioned run the ball/good defense are done. You need to be able to score points, and more importantly need a good QB. The Packers without Rodgers are a completely different team because their margin for error is much smaller. Defense plays bad, that's ok because Rodgers might be able to still score enough points to win.

[Nebu]

I think in this day and age of the NFL it's tough to rely so heavily on your defense.  There's just too much that can go wrong, even if you're defense is playing great, particularly with the prolific offenses these days.  Looking at last year's Playoff scores, the lowest winning score was 19, a few 24s, and after the wild card round the winning teams scored at least 28 in each game.  I'm not sure I trust the Chiefs to put up those kind of numbers when push comes to shove.

The NFL favors offense in every conceivable way.  It's what the paying customer wants.  If you want to win a Super Bowl with defense, you have to have such an overwhelming advantage at defense as to overcome the benefits of having a good offense.  Seattle, SF, and KC will need to find more offense if they want to beat Indy, Den, or NO in the Super Bowl (conference exclusions apply).

[ghost]

We see dominating defenses win quite a bit, but generally at the end of the year it's when their offense gets hot and starts playing decent.  The Chiefs are a house of cards.  Just wait.  They'll tank.

[sickrubik]

We see dominating defenses win quite a bit, but generally at the end of the year it's when their offense gets hot and starts playing decent.  The Chiefs are a house of cards.  Just wait.  They'll tank.

Seems like they at least started. 

[Paelos]

Defenses still win if you have a remote amount of balance on the offensive side. It's the teams that completely ignore their offense in favor of a defensive and running game that lose.

Also with the emergence of the new offensive rules and favoring high scores, defense is much more about takeaways, sacks, and red zone holds, than it is about yardage. It's about impact plays, not the plays between the 20s.

[Mithas]

Defense does not win championships. Or at least it isn't nearly as important as offense. This article is from a while back but I think it applies:

http://www.nfl.com/features/freakonomics/episode-15

[Paelos]

I'll point out again that I think nobody should use any numbers regarding the NFL that happened before the salary cap.

EDIT: Hell, I'd go as far as saying you can throw out any numbers from before 2004 when the "illegal contact" rules came into the league.

[HaemishM]

Or probably any numbers from before that snow playoff game between New England and Indy when Peyton Manning's receivers got mugged so bad by Belicheat's defense that they added extra pass interference rules the next season. That was really the beginning of the modern elite QB arena league era we are in now.

[Paelos]

The refs are really bailing out the Patriots with calls. 4 first downs on penalties, and it's not even 5 minutes into the 3rd quarter.