NFL 2013

[Paelos]

Updated Paelos Power Rankings:

1 - Denver
2 - Seattle
3 - Kansas City
4 - Patriots
5 - New Orleans
6 - Indy
7 - Tennessee
8 - Miami
9 - Detroit
10 - Chicago

[HaemishM]

During the game last night Gruden made a good comment that seems so obvious to fans but seems to elude NFL coaches.  Some teams are just going to score 30 or more points.  Especially at home.  When you are playing one of those teams (Saints) and you have 3rd and short, go for the 1st down and try for a TD.  Field goals just are not going to cut it.  I know that coaches like to just get some point on the board but it just seems chicken shit to me.

This. That 3rd down call on the first drive pretty much epitomized why I hated Mike Sherman as Packers head coach and I see it continues here. He turned what was a high-flying offense with Brett Favre into a run first, play conservative and spend the 3rd quarter on 3 and outs until having to unchain the Favre in the 4th quarter to win a game you should have been able to dominate kind of team. He's HORRIBLY conservative even when he has good playmakers. On that play, he should have really gone for it, not thrown some weak ass play to the outside against a fast set of linebackers. Fuck it, put the ball in the hands of your franchise QB. That's going to bite them in the ass often this year.

Not that they would have won if they got a TD there but it would have changed the dynamic of the game. At least it puts the pressure on New Orleans to score TD's.

Of course, the press is now all about how New Orleans is a great team again and 4-0 as good as Denver and Seattle blah de blah. Fuck that. This New Orleans team is BETTER than it was, and it obviously has an improved defense. But it isn't close to the defense of Seattle and defense wins championships. And as I've said, neither team is as complete as Denver appears to be. Get New Orleans out of the dome and that team isn't nearly as good. Also, Miami is improved but they aren't a top 5 team either - which means New Orleans has beaten a weak Falcons team, a trainwreck of a Bucaneers team, and Arizona who appears to be an 8-8 team at best.

Looking at all the 4-0 teams, they have mostly feasted on weak teams, and each one has played against 1-2 good teams at best. It's starting to look like the NCAA out there. 

And one more thing on Miami. I'm not sure what it is, but Mike Wallace looks to be a complete bust as a free agent signing. He is not even close to being on the same page with Tannehill - I'm not even sure they are reading the same book.

[K9]

It's bizarre; they had week one issues, and then in week two he was light's out, and then since they're back to where they were.

[shiznitz]

I understand the incentives to be "conservative" for NFL coaches, but playing it safe and playing it smart do not have to be exclusive.  The problem is that being down 14 pts limits your play options.  The defense knows you have to be a bit more aggressive throwing.  Miami has a good running game building.  When you have that, you cannot go down two touchdowns because the clock won't you catch up.   Brees, Peyton, even Stafford and others can come back from down 14 or 17 if they make mistakes.  Tannehill cannot.

[Trippy]

Of course, the press is now all about how New Orleans is a great team again and 4-0 as good as Denver and Seattle blah de blah. Fuck that. This New Orleans team is BETTER than it was, and it obviously has an improved defense. But it isn't close to the defense of Seattle and defense wins championships.

http://freakonomics.com/2012/01/20/does-defense-really-win-championships/

[Ingmar]

If by predictable you meant "they're going to take a while to get that system going properly and it is going to be entertaining to see it happen" then yes they've been predictable. Their defense was going to be bad with just about anyone at coach considering the personnel they have, and 2 of their 3 losses are to unbeaten teams. I don't think clusterfuck is really apt here.

So you're still in the camp that he's going to be a good NFL coach? 

I think he has a chance to be. And he's certainly going to be an entertaining NFL coach.

[ghost]

If by predictable you meant "they're going to take a while to get that system going properly and it is going to be entertaining to see it happen" then yes they've been predictable. Their defense was going to be bad with just about anyone at coach considering the personnel they have, and 2 of their 3 losses are to unbeaten teams. I don't think clusterfuck is really apt here.

So you're still in the camp that he's going to be a good NFL coach? 

I think he has a chance to be. And he's certainly going to be an entertaining NFL coach.

I think he'll be out of the league in three years.  I would say let's bet on it, but that's too long to keep up with a bet.   

[Ingmar]

I also don't actually care enough to bet on it, I'm certainly not guaranteeing he will be successful. 

[Paelos]

Of course, the press is now all about how New Orleans is a great team again and 4-0 as good as Denver and Seattle blah de blah. Fuck that. This New Orleans team is BETTER than it was, and it obviously has an improved defense. But it isn't close to the defense of Seattle and defense wins championships.

http://freakonomics.com/2012/01/20/does-defense-really-win-championships/

Nobody can really play good defense anymore because the NFL doesn't let them. The rules have become so out of control we now have 50 point games regularly. That would have been impossible a decade ago.

[sickrubik]

52 was a club record for the Broncos, so I'm not buying that argument even remotely.

Edit: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/scoring.htm

While the average is higher the last few years, it still seems to not be nowhere near different enough to indicate a major scoring changes.

[Paelos]

Ok 50 was hyperbole, but 40s are making regular appearances each week this season.

Also, I don't think overall scoring tells the whole story. You usually have one team laying the wood and another taking it up the tailpipe. I'd like to see an analysis on the margins of victory over the last 20 years.

[sickrubik]

If some teams aren't scoring... that would seem to indicate some favor FOR defenses.

[Malakili]

If some teams aren't scoring... that would seem to indicate some favor FOR defenses.

No, that would indicate they are terrible.

[Paelos]

If some teams aren't scoring... that would seem to indicate some favor FOR defenses.

I think it's more about one team has a QB, and the other team not as much.

I mean really at this point, certain teams have figured out the league has changed, and they are going for broke on offense in building their franchise. Others just don't get it.

[sickrubik]

Here is some more data, but I think it would still be nice to see it by year to see if there really is any sort of trend, but this seems to favor more of a "same as it ever was" side of things.

http://www.sportingcharts.com/articles/nfl/what-is-the-most-common-margin-of-victory-in-the-nfl.aspx

[Paelos]

That's actually interesting, and shows how a ton of games are being won by 14+

I assure you that Vegas doesn't set lines that high that often in NFL games.

[sickrubik]

Yeah, most line are between 0 and 10, from what I see.

On that note, the Broncos/Jags line (two weeks from now) is at 28, a record apparently.

[sickrubik]

Report: Tim Tebow Could Sign With Jaguars, Will Have ‘a Shot’ At Making Team

[Paelos]

Oh please let that be true.

[HaemishM]

Oh that would be so lovely. I mean, they are already a sure thing to lose 16 fucking games, why not put some asses in those seats while doing it?

[sickrubik]

The release of Josh Freeman probably monkey-wrenches this a bit, though.

[HaemishM]

Freeman is actually better than his stats but the Bucs are dogshit this year and are apparently being coached by a vindictive cockmuncher. Freeman won't help the Jags anymore than Tebow would, though. That team is just fucking awful at every level.

[Ingmar]

Given they're so unsalvageable I would expect them to go with Tebow just for the few extra tickets he'll sell.

[Paelos]

Given they're so unsalvageable I would expect them to go with Tebow just for the few extra tickets he'll sell.

It's been the headscratcher of the offseason as to why they didn't specifically target that objective to start.

[Nevermore]

I think the reason Jacksonville has been so reluctant to acquire Tebow is because they know that once they have him, he'll be nearly impossible to get rid of because of his fan base there.  He'd be like mold on that team.

[Paelos]

Apparently the rumor is Freeman was fined by the Bucs for doing an unscheduled interview, because he didn't check with the coach first.

The situation down there is beyond crazy. 

[Nevermore]

Schiano is one of those authoritarian total-control freak college coaches who thinks he can act the same way at the pro level.  I knew he'd be a disaster as soon as those idiot Glazers hired him, and here we go.  The sooner they send him packing, the better chance the next guy might have to salvage a decent team.  The Bucs have some talented players, but that team will never go anywhere with that asshole as head coach.

[Paelos]

He reminds me of when Petrino came to the Falcons. I've never seen a lockerroom that universally hated a coach until him, and now Schiano.

[Nevermore]

One can only hope Schiano sneaks out in the middle of the night soon, too.

[sickrubik]

Why am I watching this game? Still, hilarious to see Coach Marrone throw a red flag to challenge a penalty. (He was charged the time out anyway.)

[Paelos]

Annnnnd Buffalo can't have nice things.

[sickrubik]

They still have wings!

[Cyrrex]

Annnnnd Buffalo can't have nice things.

Have you ever seen Buffalo?  What makes you think it should have nice things?

[Bunk]

Looks like Tebow still has a shot at the Jags, considering Freeman is now in line to get courted by the Browns.

[HaemishM]

Somebody needs to teach these new running QB's how to 1) actually slide tackle instead of folding oneself up like a taco and putting a giant "Spear Me into an MRI Machine" sign on their heads and 2) run out of bounds once you have the first down so that some aggressive DB doesn't come along and bend your kneecap like it's a fucking crazy straw. I mean seriously, both of those QB injuries could have been avoided. The Hoyer one was a terribly bad half-ass slide and if he'd executed the QB slide right, he'd have gotten an extra 15 yards instead of his upcoming stint on injured reserve. If his ACL isn't torn to shreds, I'll be amazed. Manuel might not be quite as bad off but there was absolutely no reason to have taken that hit. He could have gone out of bounds 3 yards earlier and been completely safe. Instead his undrafted rookie backup comes in and plays like you'd expect an undrafted rookie to play - horribly.

Not that Weedon was a great deal better, mind you. That boy holds onto the ball WAY WAY too long and his accuracy is spotty. He doesn't seem to have any quickness with his decisions whereas Hoyer is "drop back, scan THROW or run" and he is clear. Weedon took a number of unnecessary sacks simply from not throwing the ball away or not running soon enough. McGahee is not going to be the kind of back you can rely on to carry poor QB play, not with this team. If Weedon is their QB for the rest of the season, they are not going to contend. Just based on the limited snaps I saw of Hoyer, they could have contended with him. How this kid didn't win the starting job in camp, I don't know. He just seems to have such excellent quickness about his decisions that Weedon doesn't. And fuck you Weedon for not being able to get the ball to Cameron more.

As for Manuel, he's pretty good if he learns the lessons I mentioned above. He could use some better blocking but he's got a pretty good weapon in Robert Woods (not to mention Stevie Johnson when he's healthy). Buffalo's defense was better than I expected.