NFL 2013

[Paelos]

I'd take Alex Smith over Romo right now. He understands how to actually protect the football. Throwing for 4,000 yards in the NFL doesn't matter to me if you don't win.

[Nebu]

I'd take Alex Smith over Romo right now. He understands how to actually protect the football. Throwing for 4,000 yards in the NFL doesn't matter to me if you don't win.

Last night Jaws stated that Romo has the highest 4th quarter QB rating in the NFL.  Is this true?  My beef with Romo is that he is wildly inconsistent.  He shows flashes of brilliance one day and plays like a rook the next.  It's a shame.  The guy has some genuine talent.

[Segoris]

I'd take Alex Smith over Romo right now. He understands how to actually protect the football. Throwing for 4,000 yards in the NFL doesn't matter to me if you don't win.

I'd say that if I was the 49ers (or another team with a passable/good defense and running game) then I'd take Smith, if I was the Cowboys then I'd pick Romo. Almost 5,000 yards with 28:19 td:Int ratio is not all that bad when the defense knows you're not running the ball. While he averages just over 1 int per game, the big problem were mostly within 3 games (5 picks against Chicago, 4 against NYG, and the most critical were 3 against WAS in Week 17)
. Though, look at 2011 when Romo had 5 picks in the first 5 games with their shit rushing game and then see Murray own the field which helped Romo only throwing 5 picks over the next 11 games.

Last night Jaws stated that Romo has the highest 4th quarter QB rating in the NFL.  Is this true?  My beef with Romo is that he is wildly inconsistent.  He shows flashes of brilliance one day and plays like a rook the next.  It's a shame.  The guy has some genuine talent.

I thought it was like 7th or 8th so I had to look this one up - but yeah apparently he has the 5th highest QB Rating at 95.6 and the 6th highest yards per pass at 7.9 for NFL All-Time leaders.

[Paelos]

Yeah when you're 28th in first half offense, it's not shocking that Tony's 4th quarter numbers are good. That didn't translate to wins.

[Segoris]

No, that doesn't translate to wins. However, outside of 3 games it didn't translate to their losses either. I'd placea that blame on defense and a lack of a running game/play selection. That, and I'm more concerned about his final 2-minutes of a half than his first half stats which has been bad for what, 5 years now consistently versus one single season with bad first-half play.

[Ingmar]

Alex Smith was a great college QB. 

[01101010]

A 49er / KC superbowl would be so poetic this year... 

[Nebu]

A 49er / KC superbowl would be so poetic this year... 

If it happened, I'm sure Vegas would be paying 1000:1 to anyone brave enough to predict it in the preseason. 

[Paelos]

I'm interested to see how Kaepernick does for a full year of action. I'm not a believer in the highly mobile QB as a long term NFL plan, but it's fun to watch it play out. Were I planning a defense, I want to key on the SF run game and make him throw the ball 30 times. They ended up grinding down the Falcons because the birds couldn't stop Gore. That opened up the TE, and rest was just watching a team bleed to death.

Also, I think it would be extremely tough for SF to get back to the NFC Championship or Super Bowl for the 3rd year in a row. Not to say they can't, but the NFL shifts/turnover usually doesn't allow that anymore unless your division is a complete pinata (Patriots).

[Segoris]

I'm with you on the mobile QB thing, though I'm warming up to it as they protect themselves more (Wilson did great at protecting himself and I saw enough throws to be sold on him longterm, but I'll be giving RG3 one more year to be completely sold as I want to make sure he has truly learned to protect himself).

If it happened, I'm sure Vegas would be paying 1000:1 to anyone brave enough to predict it in the preseason. 

I was thinking I may take those odds and throw $10 down, but then I remembered P Manning is in the AFC West (and I'm someone who believes KC will not be shit this year).

[jgsugden]

A 49er / KC superbowl would be so poetic this year... 

If it happened, I'm sure Vegas would be paying 1000:1 to anyone brave enough to predict it in the preseason. 

Last I heard, KC was 60/1 and SF was 6/1.  That'd be 360 to 1 that both make it. 

http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2013/4/30/4286942/2013-super-bowl-odds-49ers-broncos

[Trippy]

New York Jets quarterback Geno Smith is a 5/1 favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year honors

[HaemishM]

Only if he's throwing to himself.

[Paelos]

If I'm power ranking the NFC East I'd say it's DAL, WAS, NYG, PHL. That being said, I don't think anybody in the East is "really good." 10 wins could easily take this division again.

I think the Giants will be forced to rely on the passing game more than ever with the loss of Bradshaw, and that can be good and bad. It's good because I think Eli can handle the pressure. It's bad because I think outside of Cruz they have receiver questions. Also, I think the Giants schedule is easier this year in their games outside the division. The question for them is the defense. They lost Osi, and they may or may not have JPP healthy off a back problem. The defense was flat awful in 2012, and now you throw even more questions in the mix. It doesn't look great.

Philly is facing a new coach with a QB controversy, and on top of that their defense gave up almost 4 TDs a game. It's damn hard to overcome that deficit even with the best offense in the league, and they don't have that. What makes it worse for Philly is that their schedule is front-end loaded with good passing QBs. Their defense will have to stop RG3, Rivers, Eli, and Peyton all in the first 5 weeks. They could very likely have a 2-3 record or worse right out of the gate. Also, I'm not entirely sure that their new head coach even knows what a real defense looks like.

Washington faces three major issues. The first issue is how rush happy they are. While being #1 in the league in rushing yards, Alfred Morris is going to sneak up on nobody this year. People will be game planning to stop him at all costs and shore up the rushing lanes to make RG3 throw. The second issue is RG3's health. If he has any issues with injury that take him out for more than 3 games? Their season is likely over. The last issue is the defense. The Redskins have a large amount of rookie DBs, a guy in Orakpo coming off the IR in a contract year, and you have a battle of previously injured players in Carriker and Jenkins. Who the hell knows if this defense was bad because of just injuries, or if it simply going to be bad because the personnel was overrated? My guess is that it looks like a good year to throw on the Redskins.

The Cowboys for the first time in a while have the fewest issues. They have a franchise QB with no controversy and a long term deal. They have one of the best receiving trios in the league with Austin, Bryant, and Witten which may only be rivaled by Atlanta and New Orleans. What they don't have is a consistent running game. They lack a tough rusher since Murray has been dealing with leg problems early in his career, and Felix Jones has left the building. That leaves the job in the hands of Murray and possibly Dunbar, neither of which excites fans. The good news on defense is that with the hiring of Monte Kiffin, the Cowboys are likely to get smaller and faster on D to stop the pass. The goal will be for Dallas to force teams to run on first down, and get an advantage by making teams do things that are against their nature. This will work well against a lot of pass-happy teams on the schedule. It also means they will likely lose both games against Washington, since they love to run the ball. The question is will the other wins make up for the head-to-head battle with the Skins?

[Nevermore]

David Wilson has the potential to be very good for the Giants.  He's the main reason they let Bradshaw go.  Well, plus Bradshaw seem to have foot problems every year.

[Paelos]

David Wilson has the potential to be very good for the Giants.  He's the main reason they let Bradshaw go.  Well, plus Bradshaw seem to have foot problems every year.

He does, much in the same way that Dunbar has an upside for the Cowboys. However, with the physical nature of the league now it's hard to say how any RB will fare over 16 games without a track record.

[HaemishM]

They have one of the best receiving trios in the league with Austin, Bryant, and Witten which may only be rivaled by Atlanta and New Orleans.

This is wrong and you should be ashamed for thinking it. The only one who is consistently good in that list is Witten. Both Austin and Bryant can be world-beaters when they feel like it, but have never played to their potential consistently. I think Green Bay has a better receiving corps even without Jennings. I also think New Orleans receiving corps is overrated mostly because of how good Brees is.

Also, I really think Washington's defense was as bad as it was last year because of injuries. Carriker is really good.

That said, I predict the NFC East will be trash this year, and that Washington takes it.

[WayAbvPar]

Seattle has quietly put together a fearsome receiving corps..if they can get on the field (and stay healthy) together. Rice, Harvin, Baldwin, Tate, and Miller...quite a few playmakers in there. Even Jermaine Kearse can do some things if he can get his concentration problems solved. He should have been the best WR in UW history but was wildly inconsistent.

[Paelos]

They have one of the best receiving trios in the league with Austin, Bryant, and Witten which may only be rivaled by Atlanta and New Orleans.

This is wrong and you should be ashamed for thinking it.

Statistically, you are simply not correct. Check the receptions and yardage of all trios in the league, you'll see which teams have 3 receivers in the top 25.

I've heard nothing buy love from the GB fans that their receiving corp is underrated. It's not underrated. They get a lot of TDs because the Pack has zero running game, and because Rodgers is the best QB in the league spreading it around. The best example is OMG JAMES JONES LOOK AT THE TDS! Yeah 9 of them in 4 games, 5 in the other 12, only 1 in 2 playoff games. He's a good long option, but he's not a game to game dominator like other receivers in the top 25.

[HaemishM]

And you're trying to tell me that Austin or Bryant are?

No.

[Segoris]

I mostly agree with Paelos, but it is definitely worth the note that Wilson does have a major potential upside thuogh he is unproven.

For WAS, if RG3 goes down then them having Cousins will keep their season afloat. It will also bring some pressure off of Morris since there will be a lot less QB runs to worry about as they try to improve coverage against WRs. It's more a matter of if their WRs can stay healthy imo.

Philly is definitely the bottom rank here, but they'll likely be better than last year if the differences in preseason build up is any indicator - even with a QB controversy and a new coach the team is staying out of trouble and out of the news for dumb shit and may even be working together

And yeah, Dal's biggest issue now is the question of whether Murray stays healthy or not and if not how good will Joseph Randle be (as Dunbar and Tanner haven't set a very high bar for him to beat for the backup role). Murray being healthy (or any run game) will keep Romo's ints down if previous years are any indicator. Their defense should be better under Kiffin and especially if Lee can stay healthy. Though, I have to put a big question mark next to their defensive line at this point as they convert to the 4-3 they may not have the depth of the NYG a few years ago, or Chi, or the ability to transition between 4-3 and 3-4 easily like Sea.

And you're trying to tell me that Austin or Bryant are?

No.

Brant rookie year? No. Bryant second half of last year? Yes. Austin is great if his hamstring isn't screwed, and Witten is a freak of nature after the shit he played through last year and with that number of catches.

[Nebu]

They have one of the best receiving trios in the league with Austin, Bryant, and Witten which may only be rivaled by Atlanta and New Orleans.

Thomas, Welker, and Decker would like a word with you.  All 3 WR are ranked in the top 25 for 2013.  That's tough for any team to match.

[WayAbvPar]

Dez Bryant has the talent to be Top 25 (Top 5, probably). It remains to be seen if he can keep from pimpslapping his family members long enough to put together a full season.

[Paelos]

And you're trying to tell me that Austin or Bryant are?

No.

Yes, they are. Dez Bryant averages 15 yards a catch man. Hate him if you must, but you're ignoring facts. He had 12 TDs with 10 of them coming in the latter half of the season. He went 100+ 5 times with one game over 200 yards against the Saints.

Austin averages about 14 yards a catch. They were both getting first downs almost every time they touched the ball, 100 times in a season. Add in the TE and you have over 156 first downs for those 3 guys on the team. Jones, Cobb, and Nelson combined for 126. That's massively game changing over a season when you have that kind of trio.

[Paelos]

They have one of the best receiving trios in the league with Austin, Bryant, and Witten which may only be rivaled by Atlanta and New Orleans.

Thomas, Welker, and Decker would like a word with you.  All 3 WR are ranked in the top 25 for 2013.  That's tough for any team to match.

That's a good point from the AFC side. I don't really watch them as much because we don't get many AFC broadcasts.

[HaemishM]

Dez Bryant has the talent to be Top 25 (Top 5, probably). It remains to be seen if he can keep from pimpslapping his family members long enough to put together a full season.

This. Yes, Bryant has talent. But he has yet to show me he can actually be in the zone consistently game after game. He will disappear for entire halves, pop up for one catch, and then it's off to next week. There's a reason Witten gets so many catches - he's the only one that's consistently open.

Miles Austin is VASTLY overrated.

[Nebu]

Austin, Bryant, and Romo are all wildly inconsistent.  That's the issue in a nutshell.  Welker is the model of consistency and his stats reflect it.  Same goes for Rogers.  Steady production is valued in the NFL and the marquis players are mostly valued for their consistent play.

[Paelos]

Miles Austin is VASTLY overrated.

The stats don't back that opinion up, sorry. A TD catch by Miles Austin is the reason Cowboys won game 1 against the Giants. Miles Austin is the reason the Cowboys beat the Panthers in Game 6. Without him, it's very likely the Cowboys go 1-7 to open that season. He makes game-changing plays for the Cowboys, and he's a top 25 guy in receiving yards.

[Segoris]

Miles Austin is VASTLY overrated.

The stats don't back that opinion up, sorry.

The don't, so here: He was 25th in total yards and 29th in times targetted, 25th in 20+ yard receptions, 32nd in average. I'd say him being a top 25 WR is an appropriate estimate but maybe 1-2 spots high which is a farcry from being "vastly overrated." IMO, Austin's inconsistencies come from an injured hamstring and being the #3 target behind Bryant and Witten (the 8th and 14th/15th most targeted receivers in 2012). The place he needs to improve imo is the YAC and reception percentage which is a combination of play calling and work with Romo

As for Dez Bryant, he was more inconsistent in the beginning of the season (especially when he had only 1 target of 20+ yards.....wtf) but the 2nd half of last year he was nothing but consistent and solid enough to bring him to be a top 5 or 6 WR for the season (I believe top 3 for the 2nd half of the season). Over the entire season he had almost 70% reception percentage, which was roughly equal to Wes Welker, Andre Johnson, Jason Witten, Demarius Thomas - that is some good company to be in. Then, compare him to Rhoddy White (as they have the exact same receptions and are both #1s) and Bryant comes out ahead with a higher reception per target average, higher yards per completion, almost double the touchdowns and more yards after the catch with the exact same number of receptions). Then remember that he is playing with an 'inconsistent' QB

Oh, and we have yet to hear about him being in trouble since the end of last season. He's kept alow profile since he had his unofficial yet official guardian/mentor/big brother/whatever, so I see no reason to not believe he'll be building off of last season.

[HaemishM]

When he's on his game (talking about Austin here). When he's not, he disappears and Romo disappears with him (or throws INTs). Rodgers got sacked 51 times last year, Romo 36. Yet somehow Romo threw 18 INT's to Rodgers' 8, AND Rodgers threw 39 TD's to Romo's 28 - and Romo had a lower YDS/A even with more YDS/G.

Just by sacks alone (and the fact that Green Bay took that many sacks yet had MORE rushing yards than Dallas) tells me that Romo is not able to target anyone consistently. Which means his receivers aren't getting open as consistently as the Packers' receivers are.

Cobb had 104 targets to Austin's 118 yet he had more receptions (80-66) and that's Randall Cobb who was at no point the #1 wideout for the Packers or #2. Bryant had better stats than all of them but again - he disappeared first half of the season in most games. The Cowboys wideouts are overrated as that whole team has been for years. They aren't consistent enough to get the press and praise they have been getting.

Witten, however, cannot be praised enough. That motherfucker is a beast and I'd love to have him on the Packers. And yes, I'd take Denver's 3 wideouts over Dallas any day as well.

[Segoris]

Everything there just sounds more like Rodgers is better than Romo - there is no argument there. Rodgers puts the ball exactly where it needs to be just about every single time even when his WRs are covered without them getting open. Romo does have a a pretty good consistency (better than people around here give him credit for) but with no running game, a shit defense, and playing from behind most games he is going to throw more picks as he tries forcing throws than someone who is already slated as a future hall of famer that is playing with a lead and has/is a much better playcaller.

Additionally, if you look at the top 10 QBs by attempts or yards, only 2 had less than 10 ints (Rodgers and Brady). They are the outliers with Peyton Manning fresh off 4 neck surgeries on a brand new team with 11.



Though, perfect agreement about Witten being a beast and Den's trio being better than Dal's. Fuck you if Witten (or anyone like Witten to fill in for TE) goes to GB

edit: with Austin though - I really do think that is more play calling than anything. He is targetted in coverage and heavy traffic that he doesn't have much room, and his YAC reflects that. Him being on his game or not imo still comes back to the lack of a rushing game for Dal. Their offense is built to run a mix of pass and rush while GB adjusts properly to not having a running game and builds up yards while they have a nice lead running down the clock. Look at Romo over the last 5 years when the running game was better (not great, but much better) and his ints drop to 50% or 33% of what his 2012 picks were and Austin's stats are much better (outside of the Hamstring injury)

[Paelos]

Haemish just hates the boys because he's a dirty packer fan.

Must be tough having the best QB in a league. Boohoohoo 

I liked the Pack to go the distance last year but they need to l2p some defense.

[HaemishM]

Haemish just hates the boys because he's a dirty packer fan.

I liked the Pack to go the distance last year but they need to l2p some defense.

Both of these things is true. Still doesn't make me think the wideouts aren't overrated.

[Paelos]

I'll put it this way. The WR situation and TE situation is one of the last things I'm worried about this year as a Cowboys fan.

[HaemishM]

You could be a lot worse off at the position, I'll give you that. You could be the Jags, Raiders or Jets. Now THEY have fuckall for wideouts.