Superbowl Prediction Challenge redux

[WayAbvPar]

The bookies are in the business of balancing bets on both sides, not predicting who will win. So that would indicate that all the money us going against them.

[Cyrrex]

Wild Card (1pt): Packers, Seahawks, Texans, Ravens
Division (2pt): Packers, Seahawks, Patriots, Broncos
Conference (4pt): Packers, Patriots
Suberbowl (8pt): Packers

Would rather put Denver in against the Packers, but despite Manning's feel-good story, I still think Brady has his number.

[shiznitz]

The beauty of Brady losing to both Manning's is just to perfect not to want, though.

[Nebu]

Wild Card: Packers, Seahawks, Texans, Colts

Division: Niners, Seahawks, Broncos, Patriots

Conference: Niners, Patriots

Superbowl: Patriots

[Paelos]

I will say that if the Pats win, it will fly right in the face of my belief that you have to have a sembleance of pass defense/rush to win a championship.

[HaemishM]

When's MY time?

Not this year. 

What he said. Pete Carroll and the Fail Mary fucked your karma in its eyeholes.

[Nebu]

I will say that if the Pats win, it will fly right in the face of my belief that you have to have a sembleance of pass defense/rush to win a championship.

Worked for the Rams.  I also think that Belechick is a genius when it comes to big games.

I'm also wrong a lot.

[Paelos]

I should preface that by saying I meant since 2004, the year of the "pass first" rule changes in the NFL.

[naum]

NFC
Vikings (6) @ Packers (3)
Seahawks (5) @ Redskins (4)
49ers BYE (2)
Falcons BYE (1)

AFC
Bengals (6) @ Texans (3)
Colts (5) @ Ravens (4)
Broncos BYE (1)
Patriots BYE (2)

WC: Packers, Seahawks, Bengals, Colts
DR: Packers, Seahawks, Patriots, Broncos
CC: Packers, Patriots
SB: Packers

[Shannow]

I will say that if the Pats win, it will fly right in the face of my belief that you have to have a sembleance of pass defense/rush to win a championship.

Worked for the Rams.  I also think that Belechick is a genius when it comes to big games.

I'm also wrong a lot.

If the game was in Foxboro I'd be fully confident of the Pats squeaking it out. Because its in Denver they'll most likely take a 20 point lead into the 4th quarter and find a way to blow it.

[Segoris]

I should preface that by saying I meant since 2004, the year of the "pass first" rule changes in the NFL.

The pass defense being more the key than the pass rush imo. '04 Pats are a great example of this. They did not have much for sacks, interceptions, or fumble recoveries. What they did have was solid run defense (top 3 iirc) causing more throws into the coverage from some very good secondaries and their backups (who were also very good).

Beyond that, I do think the points allowed per game is what may keep the 2012 Pats competetive in the playoffs. They allow a lot of yards per game, but they only allow ~20ppg iirc. That is somewhat high compared to '04-'08 champions, but with the pass first NFL it is acceptable

[sickrubik]

Pats are just ABOVE 20 ppg.

The lowest in the playoffs are the Seahawks with 15, followed by the Niners with 17 and the Broncos with 18.

[Hutch]

Wild Card (1pt)
Colts
Texans
Seahawks
Packers

Division (2pt)
Broncos
Patriots
Falcons
Niners

Conference (4pt)
Broncos
Niners

Super Bowl Champ (8pt)
Broncos

[Shannow]

You realize only one person picked the Ravens to win?  Well done Cyrexx

[Paelos]

You realize only one person picked the Ravens to win?  Well done Cyrexx

Nobody expected the Colts OC/Head Coach to be a no-show.

[HaemishM]

I DID expect Flacco to be a no-show... which is what made the difference.

[Cyrrex]

Honestly...I couldn't figure out what you were all thinking picking the Colts.  The Ravens almost always play good at home, and Flacco seems to have some kind of first round mojo.  Couple that with the fact that Andrew Luck really isn't that good (yet).  The only reason he didn't throw five picks was due to the sheer luck of the bounce and some serious butterfingers on the other side of the ball.  He seems terribly inaccurate for anything beyond 6 or 7 yards.

[Paelos]

Honestly...I couldn't figure out what you were all thinking picking the Colts.  The Ravens almost always play good at home, and Flacco seems to have some kind of first round mojo.  Couple that with the fact that Andrew Luck really isn't that good (yet).  The only reason he didn't throw five picks was due to the sheer luck of the bounce and some serious butterfingers on the other side of the ball.  He seems terribly inaccurate for anything beyond 6 or 7 yards.

I was personally thinking that the Ravens had lost 4 of their last 5, for the most part against playoff caliber teams. I still believe with their true playcaller back there, the Colts would have scored in the first quarter, taken the lead, and set the tone. There's no way Arians would have passed that much in the game. Luck's workload is around 40 passes a game. He threw 54 in that game, even while the Colts were averaging 5 a carry on the ground. It wasn't a good gameplan to put it on his shoulders, especially with over 25 dropbacks in the first half.

[shiznitz]

Eliminated from contention:

shiznitz, sickrubik - Had the Redskins winning again and the rest of our picks are the same as someone else who picked the Seahawks.
Azuredream - One point behind Shannow and they have the same picks from here (except for Redskins and Falcons which at worst create a wash in 2nd round).
naum - same picks as Cyrrexx from here and 2pts behind him after WC.

Paelos looks to be in a bad way, but he is the only one with a Packers victory in a Packers/Broncos Superbowl so I think he can still win it.

[sickrubik]

Honestly...I couldn't figure out what you were all thinking picking the Colts.  The Ravens almost always play good at home, and Flacco seems to have some kind of first round mojo.  Couple that with the fact that Andrew Luck really isn't that good (yet).  The only reason he didn't throw five picks was due to the sheer luck of the bounce and some serious butterfingers on the other side of the ball.  He seems terribly inaccurate for anything beyond 6 or 7 yards.

Colts had a LOT of dropped passes. I didn't really see that happening.

[Hutch]

Aaand I'm out. 

[Ruvaldt]

Damnit.  I should've kept disagreeing with Paelos.

[Paelos]

Hey, who knew the refs were Baltimore fans? 

I think Cyrrex aces me out if the Pack wins. Oh well. Go Pack Go!

[Trippy]

The Broncos fucked me up but I think I'm the only one who picked the Niners to win it all so I still have a chance.

[Paelos]

It's going to be Flacco v. the Falcons at this rate of WTF.

[shiznitz]

Well, we pretty much all suck.

Here are the final what-if results:

1) 49ers - Pats SB with 49ers win: Trippy
2) 49ers - Pats SB with Pats win: Shannow beats Nebu by 1pt
3) 49ers - Ravens with 49ers win: Trippy
4) 49ers - Ravens with Ravens win: Hutch (has current highest score and that result helps no one remaining)
5) Falcons - Pats SB with Falcons win: Shannow
6) Falcons - Pats SB with Pats win: Shannow
7) Falcons - Ravens SB with Falcons win: Hutch
8) Falcons- Ravens SB with Ravens win: Hutch

Hutch was 3/4 in the first two rounds, so his point total through then gives him the win with a battle of the WTF teams.

[Paelos]

I think if the Ravens or Falcons win, we declare ourselves all losers.

[Shannow]

Well I was doing just fine until the pats decided to take a huge dump on themselves.  It's times like this that I remind myself I don't live in Cleveland.

[Merusk]

Well I was doing just fine until the pats decided to take a huge dump on themselves.  It's times like this that I remind myself I don't live in Cleveland.

I was going to say "Or Cincinnati" but at least they made it in to the playoffs, even if they pulled their normal "shit the bed when it matters" nonsense.

Now that my curse has worked so well for Dallas I'm picking the Steelers as my team next year.  I've held off due to my Cleveland & Cinci roots but after the strutting last year I've decided it's time.  Go Steelers. (buahaha)

[Paelos]

So at this point is it just Trippy wins, or we forget we all participated in this mess? 

[Hutch]

So at this point is it just Trippy wins, or we forget we all participated in this mess? 

Looking at the Ravens as the underdog is the kind of thinking that got us into this mess in the first place 

I played baseball in high school, i.e. a long time ago. I had a knack for hitting low pop-ups (aka bloop singles) that went juuust far enough into the outfield so that no one could catch them. Unimpressive hits, but I'd be on base. My coach used to say "those count".

Whether the Niners or Ravens win, that's kind of how I feel about this contest. I'm on base, but not impressed about how I got there 

[Paelos]

I'll still boo you if you win with a dink single. 

[shiznitz]

Well, we pretty much all suck.

Here are the final what-if results:


3) 49ers - Ravens with 49ers win: Trippy
4) 49ers - Ravens with Ravens win: Hutch (has current highest score and that result helps no one remaining)

Just confirmed this.  Also, Paelos, I think this is the first time someone only earned a single point.  There is something to be said for being contrary, but if one takes it too far then contrary is the wrong word! Four of us had only 4 points.

[Paelos]

I need a Bob Uecker walk-off quote for my one point.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y9myYc8Pn8o

[Hutch]

Looking at the Ravens as the underdog is the kind of thinking that got us into this mess in the first place

I'll still boo you if you win with a dink single.