US East Coast weather fun ahead

[luckton]

The storm just blew my in-law's laptop into the ocean.

Now there's a Dell rolling in the deep.

[Ghambit]

Apparently a 1960 replica of the HMS Bounty has been sunk by the storm.  A few people are missing, a dozen or so abandoned ship prior to sinking.

Yah, that's sad.  Was a national monument in some regards.  Their captain should be arrested for even being out in that stuff.  Reminds me of the Phantome (barefoot cruises) dabocle.
I'm seeing reports that the tides are essentially not going out, and the storm is still 12 hours out.  There is so much water being pushed by this thing that it's likely to go through 3 tide cycles before actually starting to recede.   The news has been caught up in this 8pm high tide (fixating on the center) and the reality is it's not gonna matter in a storm of this size. 

Interesting scenario we have possibly playing out now is also with regard to Long Island Sound and Manhattan.  The way the storm is setting up, the sound will see huge surge from easterlies that'll have nowhere to go but the East River. Simultaneously the Hudson surges from the Sandy Hook side as the center gets closer.  All that water has just about nowhere to go but Manhattan.    Irene's angle of attack was such that this scenario couldn't play out; no such luck with this one.  Met-geeks call it a "pincer" scenario, similar to what happened with Katrina and Lake Ponch. vs the GoM.  The Slosh models are accounting for this though so I dont expect surprises.   12ft is as high as it should go.

Here's a cool gif comparison with Irene:

[luckton]

Reports and photos coming in that Atlantic City is underwater.  Hope someone saved granny from the slot machines.

[bhodi]

AC is underwater. Ocean City boardwalk is gone.

It's a bit windy outside in NoVA but that's it so far!

[Ghambit]

This is now a 90mph storm still-strengthening storm (they're gonna have to update the slosh models because of this).  The thermodynamics at play here may be a bit stronger than they expected (it's now a hybrid tropical/baroclinic storm), so we may now be lookin at a minimal cat. 2 sub 940mb storm slamming the NE.  Shit just got real.  Because of the atmospheric conditions those strongest winds seem to still be about 100mi SW of the center too.  So, if we get atlantic city landfall Washington D.C./Baltimore may see 'cane force.  Model guidance is saying those winds will likely spread to the northern semicircle and cluster a tad closer to the eye though once she starts accelerating to the NW (which adds momentum to the upwind side of the storm).  What a clusterfuck.  smh

Definitely a relative superstorm.

[Ghambit]

Battery Park is flooding now (just saw pics).  
Red Hook is already underwater. 

And things arent even bad yet.

[Signe]

Pic of NYC sky a couple of hours ago. 



Scary and awesome looking.  Wish it was a better shot but someone did it from their mobile.

[Pennilenko]

I live in southwest Florida. Been here for long enough to ride out many hurricanes.

I have watched many interviews and commentary from regular people living all over the northern east coast. I have to say it scares me how little those people respect a storm like this.

[Ghambit]

Show them this satellite loop and maybe it'll change their minds.  No joke, it looks like something from "Day after Tomorrow."

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/templates/loop_directory.asp?data_folder=dev/lindsey/loops/goes14&image_width=1020&image_height=720&number_of_images_to_display=50

[schild]

My CFO decided not to leave Long Island.

I told him to beware the terror that rides the clouds. Having been through multiple shitty shitty hurricanes, these people just have absolutely no fucking clue what's about to happen to them.

[Pennilenko]

They really have no clue. I have seen pictures taken within the last hour along the jersey coast with people looking out their windows seeing other people looking out their windows, and no ground showing anymore, water already up to the bottom of their doors. I wonder if some of them are even aware that they might die. I mean water is already at their front door and nothing is going to stop wave action because its literally open sea up to their front door.

[Merusk]

They really have no clue. I have seen pictures taken within the last hour along the jersey coast with people looking out their windows seeing other people looking out their windows, and no ground showing anymore, water already up to the bottom of their doors. I wonder if some of them are even aware that they might die. I mean water is already at their front door and nothing is going to stop wave action because its literally open sea up to their front door.

They are not aware. Many probably see this as a little flooding and nothing more.  People don't respect a force of nature they haven't encountered themselves and only have an abstract understanding of.  "Oh, the weather people stand outside in these all the time, it's no big deal," is probably their main line of thinking.

I laugh-off the rampant Tornado fear here because they're so damn infrequent they don't justify the tizzy of interrupted television and radio warnings for any severe thunderstorm.  Doesn't mean I won't head for a sheltered corner when there's an actual sighting within a few miles of me or I see a funnel cloud on the horizon.

[luckton]

Meanwhile, in Connecticut...

[Teleku]

It's just rainy and a bit windy in DC right now.  I always miss out on all the fun!

[WayAbvPar]

Meanwhile, in Connecticut...

I knew those things were dangerous!

[Ghambit]

It's not as much the storm itself that sucks, but the aftermath.  You think it's cool at first - all pretend camping and what-not.  Then by the 3rd day you want to labotomize yourself from frustration.   People with the resources just end up leaving, people without have to stay and suffer.

Jersey shore is basically a write-off already.  Kiss it goodbye for a while.  I've never seen flooding this bad with a storm that far away before.   People that stayed out there will have to ride it out and then likely be stuck for quite a while.

The flooding wont be that much of a forecast surprise but it's quite possible the winds in this thing still may catch people off guard.  I dont think NHC quite has a handle on that aspect yet; the planes are having to fly 1000's of miles in/around this storm to get a handle on it.  And given the building codes up there arent set for 940mb hurricanes, it's quite possible we will see some needless deaths from building failures.  A lot of them.

You see 100mph?  kiss your northern-coded OSHA roof goodbye.

It's just rainy and a bit windy in DC right now.  I always miss out on all the fun!

Sandy has 100mph gusts displaced about 100mi SW from the center.  Center comes in at the Delaware...  you any good at Geography?

[JWIV]

Just snagged this pic from the house a few doors down from me.  



And just because, a boring vid of the waterfront.  Sadly the slight wind moaning didn't really get picked up.

http://youtu.be/aGChgYnG_q8

[Merusk]

You see 100mph?  kiss your northern-coded OSHA roof goodbye.

When Ike tore through here we didn't see many roof losses and our design load is only 90mph in the Midwest.  Shingles, siding and poorly-secured trim, absolutely.  These houses were all built after '79 or so, however.   My sister's place, built in 1979 so it didn't have hurricane ties, had some uplift issues but it didn't tear the roof off.   Anything built using one of the ICCs will be OK as the entirety of the East Coast has a required windspeed design minimum of at least 100mph.  Long island is 110 on the west, hitting 120 min on the east coast.  So long as folks were building responsibly they'll be ok.  Even those buildings 100+ years old might be ok provided people haven't sealed the attic up and turned it in to a giant kite with no tie-down to the foundation.

What I'm going to be interested in is what happens to the Skyscrapers.  They're designed for some pretty significant gusts and the 120mph load.  You're still going to lose bits.

[Teleku]

Sandy has 100mph gusts displaced about 100mi SW from the center.  Center comes in at the Delaware...  you any good at Geography?

I'm an American.  Is that a trick question?

[schild]

Sandy is such a weird way to spell Schadenfreude.

[Fabricated]

firstworldproblems.jpg

[Khaldun]

The eyewall is basically going to go straight over our house in about four hours or so--it's coming up through Delaware just south of Philly and then onward to Lancaster before it begins a northward turn. Wind is picking up and gusting much more dramatically than even an hour ago. Watching our trees with some considerable anxiety.

[Ghambit]

Cool webcam that wont last much longer:
http://fagers.com/sandycams.html

Some photos from an amateur met site (mostly Jersey):
http://canetalk.com/2012/10/1351540387.shtml
http://canetalk.com/2012/10/1351541917_1351540387.shtml
http://canetalk.com/2012/10/1351540455_1351540387.shtml

Conclusion: Jersey shore is gone.  Luckily the season is over anyways.

Sandy has 100mph gusts displaced about 100mi SW from the center.  Center comes in at the Delaware...  you any good at Geography?

I'm an American.  Is that a trick question?

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...
MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 485 MILES...780 KM. SUSTAINED WINDS TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE OCCURRING FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND...

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS.
THIS INCLUDES THE TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT...
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTS
OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY
AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND.

Still feel oh so safe?      Comparatively, take that derecho this summer and make it last say 6hrs.  Yah, you'll be fine.  

[schild]

Jersey Shore? Destroyed?

[luckton]

Jersey Shore? Destroyed?

Is anyone hoping that it DOESN'T get destroyed?

[Soln]

thank you for that

[schild]

In case I run for political office in the future, the previous post has been removed on the offchance New York is still a place.

[Ingmar]

Jersey Shore? Destroyed?

Is anyone hoping that it DOESN'T get destroyed?

Yes? I know this is ha ha Snookie stuff, but there's a lot more there than just the 250 feet of boardwalk where the show takes place, and parts of it are really great. (Cape May comes to mind.)

[luckton]

But think of the greater good!

[Ghambit]

Jersey Shore? Destroyed?

Is anyone hoping that it DOESN'T get destroyed?

Yes? I know this is ha ha Snookie stuff, but there's a lot more there than just the 250 feet of boardwalk where the show takes place, and parts of it are really great. (Cape May comes to mind.)

I had an anti-NYC post I deleted a few days ago where I pretty much said fuck NYC but save my Cape May please.

[Venkman]

I have watched many interviews and commentary from regular people living all over the northern east coast. I have to say it scares me how little those people respect a storm like this.

It's because they're usually once a generation things up here. Meanwhile, Virgina completely shut down when they got an inch of snow a few years back, and for that shit we're prepared by September. Unless you're one of the folks like my buddy who got transferred from California and was wondering why there was this strange looking brush in the back seat 

Also, Snopes out looking for the fake photos the media is running because apparently the real storm isn't Day After Tomorrow enough.

[Mrbloodworth]

James River Bridge, VA.



For Comparison:

[Surlyboi]

What will be the tallest building in midtown has a crane that wasn't battened down and is probably going to fall from 90 stories some time before the storm is over.

[MisterNoisy]

Jesus.  That's going to be a hell of a mess when it lets go.

Good luck to everyone in the path.  :(

[Sky]

wondering why there was this strange looking brush in the back seat

...and shovel, first aid kits, box-o-warm (gloves/hats/scarves/jackets/shirts/snowpants/misc warm packs), boots, snack packs, etc....Mostly a holdover from when I drove unreliable vehicles, but hey. Why not.

Loks like it's getting up to the brooklyn bridge http://aws1.earthcam.com/?c=bb