T.S/Hurr. Isaac (8/26 Update: Oh New Orleeeeans...)

[luckton]

Let's get this party started  

Work already has me on retainer to report in and sleep the night there (because getting paid to sleep is  .  It's like I'm a fire-fighter or something).  If it's anything like Wilma was, it's just gonna be another day at work come Monday, although my cigarette smoking co-workers are going to have a bad time.

The storm is expected to Tiger Uppercut Florida's west coast and smash into the panhandle.  Most of the models are not deviating from this path; it's more of a matter of just how far off the coast the storm will be, which will dictate how hard the rain-wind part of the storm will hit the mainland.

Local media's going full tilt  .  Pretty much the only time people watch them is when we get these things, and they always aim to please.

How's things where ya'll are?

[KallDrexx]

No one's batting an eye here in central florida, though we never get any real "fun"

[Pennilenko]

Reporting in from Bonita Springs, SW Florida, I am not concerned, however like any sane individual with tropical storm/hurricane experience,  I will pay attention to the noaa weather website and clear out if there looks to be trouble.

[Khaldun]

Forecasts have it staying at Cat 1 the whole way up to the Panhandle, so that probably won't be too bad except for the rainfall once it goes over the Panhandle. The Southeast could use the rain, really.

[01101010]

Forecasts have it staying at Cat 1 the whole way up to the Panhandle, so that probably won't be too bad except for the rainfall once it goes over the Panhandle. The Southeast could use the rain, really.

Yes, it could... but not all at once.

[sigil]

Forecasts have it staying at Cat 1 the whole way up to the Panhandle, so that probably won't be too bad except for the rainfall once it goes over the Panhandle. The Southeast could use the rain, really.

The gulf coast has gotten rain for over half the summer.

It's been the summer of the mushroom.

Id prefer it hit Texas....

[luckton]

Aye, it's the mid-west and central areas that need rain.  Florida's been pretty saturated for the summer time, but since that's expected for Florida, that's why it's not news.

[luckton]

TS Watches are now in effect for the FL west coastline from Estero to New Port Richey (read: Tampa/RNC is in this coverage.)  Hurricane warnings go from Bonita Springs south to Key West and back up the east coastline to Miami, and TS Warnings go from Miami up to Daytona Beach.

[MisterNoisy]

After Ivan a few years ago, this is just going to seem like more rain as opposed to a proper storm if the projections are right.  That said, I double checked everything in my post-hurricane kit and refilled what was missing anyway.

[luckton]

Update from SW FL: Work cancelled the "report the night before" thing for work, so now it's just going to be a "really bad thunderstorm" for us.

You New Orleans and neighboring areas?  Prepare for Katrina 2: The Katrinaing 

[Nevermore]

Isaac should track well west of us at this point, but since all the worst of the weather is on the northeast side of the storm we're still expecting some nasty weather.

[sigil]

Now expecting this thing to totally take a big steaming dump on my plans for this week as I live just to the east of the current track *hooray*

[MisterNoisy]

Now expecting this thing to totally take a big steaming dump on my plans for this week as I live just to the east of the current track *hooray*

it seems like every time I load up the NOAA projection, it keeps shifting further westward.

[luckton]

Storm was not a total loss!  I didn't get sleep pay, but they still made breakfast for staff this morning!  Eggs, grits, bacon, sausage, and oatmeal for the masses!   

[Ghambit]

NOLA never got Cat. 3 or even Cat. 2 winds (sustained) during Katrina FYI.  Isaac is now forecast as a strengthening (always bad) Cat. 2 'cane before landfall, and a slow mover.  I cannot stress the difference enough between a strengthening storm and a building one.  You can have 2 cat. 1 storms and the one that's building "feels" a full Cat. stronger then you'd expect.

Anyways, the surge potential will be similar to Gustav (some mets say worse) for the gulf coast which is bad in itself (200+ mile wind fetch), and since it's a slow moving big rainmaker... expect 17+" in some places on top of the surge over two backed-up tidal periods.  Regardless, if NOLA gets the eyewall of Isaac as a strengthening 100mph Cat. 2 though, I guarantee you things will break.  Shades of Wilma in SoFla, which was a beefy Cat. 2 at 100mph in a place with the strongest 'cane codes in the country.

Of course, I wouldn't bet on any of the above actually occurring.  The gulf coast has an odd "hurricane forcefield" that tends to rape storms as they approach.  Some people attribute it to the MS delta, oil contaminants (which disrupt evaporation), and other crackpottery.  We shall see if that applies this go 'round.

[MisterNoisy]

Despite the fact that I'm completely out of the projection cone (the storm is basically due south of me and still moving westward now), I've got the next two days off thanks to Isaac.  Given that I took Thu/Fri off because I'm officially a year older on the 30th, this has been a good week.

[MediumHigh]

I have a sister down there so I really, really hope it doesn't get beyond Cat 2... Basically the only way out will be train or car once tonight hits since all the airports will travel adversaries starting Tuesday.

[JWIV]

I'm really feeling for a friend of mine - she lived through Katrina (including the be a refugee in Houston deal) and just moved back to New Orleans last month.

[MahrinSkel]

Current projection has it nearly parked over New Orleans at hurricane force for over 24 hours, then it will still be raining on them for at least another day.

--Dave

[Khaldun]

Plus it looks like it's going to go up the Mississippi valley, so whatever rain it's got left will be flowing back towards NOLA afterwards.

[Lantyssa]

The Mississippi has been exceptionally low.  As long as the storm itself doesn't do a lot of damage, the river should be able to handle the rising water fairly well.

Here's hoping it brings needed rain without a lot of damage.

[01101010]

The Mississippi has been exceptionally low.  As long as the storm itself doesn't do a lot of damage, the river should be able to handle the rising water fairly well.

Here's hoping it brings needed rain without a lot of damage.

Yeah but the drought this summer means a lot of lands are not going to actually suck up any of that rain, it is going to run off straight into the river and down to the Gulf. I suspect major flooding from Missouri downwards if Issac dumps as much as predicted. At least NOLA will be spare a huge storm surge... however the backlash my not be so kind.

[Ghambit]

The problem with NOLA isnt really the MS it's lake Bourgne and the Ponch.  But even that is really no longer a problem (post $15bn levee reconstruction) unless they saw a strong cat. 3 or more.

As we speak anyways, this storm is still struggling with dry air.  And at these latitudes it's near impossible to see a rapid deepening so it looks like a strong cat. 1.  Still though, New Orleans hasnt seen even strong Cat.1 winds sustained in a very very long time.  It will surprise people.

And we'll see how good those pumps are once that bathtub fills up.
I agree with binary-boy given the path of this rainmaker regarding the MS valley.  That's a lot of rain in the most vulnerable area (straight up the midwest).  NOLA is greatly protected though as opposed to a lot of places up river.  Those are the places I'd worry about once the river and tributaries back up.

If you're really bored there are sites you can monitor that are directly jacked into the entire country's water level sensing system.  It's fascinating to watch during storms like these and sometimes you can actually help people who aren't that tech savvy get prepared.

[Ghambit]

Bah, USCG has some sites but the USGS is better.  Here's a new one they've been working on just for this storm.  Amazing how the tech. has changed since Katrina.
http://50.17.205.92/Apps/IsaacStormSurgeMapper/IsaacStormSurgeMapper.html#

[HaemishM]

As a representative of "that landmass between Alabama and Louisiana" people have been sort of losing their damn minds over this. Wall to wall coverage. I mean, if I was on the Coast, I'd likely evac, but where I am? Katrina beating the shit out of us was an outlier, yet people immediately go and raid the bottled water two days before the thing even comes close to us. And of course, all my company's clients on the Coast have to put up advisory emergency web pages for closures.

I guess it's better they be prepared than not, as Katrina showed, but damn people. Chill the fuck out.

[Lantyssa]

We saw the same thing with Rita after Katrina.  Growing up, if any hurricane came near we tended to go out west, because why not?  Free vacation and we could prep the deer lease.  Rita came and the entire friggin' city evacuated.  Which didn't work well.

[Ghambit]

Chill out or not, you're lookin at TS-'cane conditions for 48hrs. in some places given this forecast (only considering the central dense overcast and not even the long-training tail) - near stationary to 5mph.  It's fun at first, but after 18hrs or so you want it to stop.

[MuffinMan]

Eerily quiet here in the world of auto insurance claims so far. Hopefully it stays that way all day because I have tomorrow off.

[01101010]

Chill out or not, you're lookin at TS-'cane conditions for 48hrs. in some places given this forecast (only considering the central dense overcast and not even the long-training tail) - near stationary to 5mph.  It's fun at first, but after 18hrs or so you want it to stop.

Yeah. This is it entirely - Wilma that blew through Florida was just about right in terms of duration. Just when it got to be annoying, it was gone.

[Ghambit]

Plaquemines parish is flooding out again.  Levees overtopped, people on roofs, etc.  I'm not surprised really.  WAY too much water piling up in there and that parish has always been vulnerable.  We're not talkin a lot of people effected though.  Isaac isn't even ashore yet and this has been going on 18+ hrs already.  NOLA has yet to feel the eyewall either.  When it gets close, they're gonna know it.  

[Updated 5:44 a.m. ET]  There have been reports of 10 to 12 feet of water in homes in Plaquemines Parish, parish President Billy Nungesser told CNN.

Nungesser said Isaac has pushed more water into some areas than Katrina did seven years ago. He said the Woodlawn area had no water in it from Katrina and has five feet of water in it now.

edit:  here's the USGS streamflow site btw if you're interested in tracking water levels
http://waterdata.usgs.gov/la/nwis/rt

[01101010]

Oddly enough, I remember bits and pieces of that parish when I was at school down there. Actually knew a few people from there as well... 12' of water is pretty terrifying.

[Ghambit]

Bay St. Louis/Pass Christiane is flooding now too... again.   People actually rebuilt there after Kat.   

[Lantyssa]

They always do.

"Oh, it was a 100 year storm.  No problem."

[WayAbvPar]

I have trouble feeling sorry for people this time around (other than the children, who have no say in where they live). It is not like we didn't have a stark example of what can and does happen less than a decade ago. I feel the same way about the geniuses who live on river deltas for the great farmland and then act surprised when their land floods 3 years out of 5.

[Paelos]

Yeah at this point we're talking same generation of stupid. Not even second or third.