Cassandra's predictions

[Dark_MadMax]

I making this post so I can gleefully refer to it as a testament to my inductive-deductive powers or just let it quietly slip under the rug in case I turn out to be completely wrong :)

- GW2 will be a huge success. Not like WoW (which broke in entirely new market) but nevertheless.  It will be popular it will be talked about and it will last a while with many expansions (many more than wow ,since  this is how arena will make money)

- GW2 Will be defacto PvP MMO. All the refugees from WaR,DaoC, WoW arena  will be there sooner or later - this will be THE pvp MMO. Both for arenas (sPvP ) and world (WvWvW) .And sorry EvE , spreadsheets are boring(not implying eve will die btw - just will lose its status as basically only pvp mmo on market)

- GW2 pve will be meh. Everyone will rave about and praise how innovative it is ,yadda yadda.1 months in people start complaining  about LFD,  bad loot , etc. In 3 months? - no one will give a shit about gw2 pve. Raiders will be back playing pandas

- Long term? -well I think it will stay as #2 MMO for quite a  while. Being much more succesafull than GW1,  but it will be always a distant #2, kinda like DaoC was PvP rival of EQ .  Something might change down the line and arena might want try to turn GW2 pve more raid'y ,geary like . But dont think it will trump the #1 gear grinder on the market and attract their core audience .They will still do ok because of their model - and many casual will play GW2 for whatever PvE it has, infused with new players every time arena.net makes a steam sale


-No idea whethere it will become esport or not. It has a lot of potential (a lot more than wow) but there is more to it than just having potential. It might (which wont surprise me) or it might be not (again wont be a surprise). esport is a tricky thing and GW2 is missing a lot of things right to make it viable .Even if it gets all the right things (spectator mode, private servers, tourneys) I still not sure how popular or watchable it will be. It has much better shot at it than wow due to better design, but it would be hard long uphill battle (mainly because no one really gives 2 fucks about esports anyhow)

[Amaron]

- GW2 Will be defacto PvP MMO. All the refugees from WaR,DaoC, WoW arena  will be there sooner or later - this will be THE pvp MMO. Both for arenas (sPvP ) and world (WvWvW) .And sorry EvE , spreadsheets are boring(not implying eve will die btw - just will lose its status as basically only pvp mmo on market)

I'd like to see this happen but I'm going to predict it won't.  I don't say that because it has any big flaws.  It's simply not universal enough in it's appeal.

[tazelbain]

Who is Cassandra?

[Rasix]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cassandra

[tazelbain]

If we are making bold predictions: GW2 will supplant WoW as number #1 in NA and EU that will 40% because GW2 is good game and 60% because decrepit WoW train falling off the tracks.

[lamaros]

- GW2 will be a huge success. Not like WoW (which broke in entirely new market) but nevertheless.  It will be popular it will be talked about and it will last a while with many expansions (many more than wow ,since  this is how arena will make money)

- GW2 pve will be meh. Everyone will rave about and praise how innovative it is ,yadda yadda.1 months in people start complaining  about LFD,  bad loot , etc. In 3 months? - no one will give a shit about gw2 pve. Raiders will be back playing pandas

1+1 = 17?

[Nevermore]

My prediction is because it doesn't use a subscription model it will be difficult if not completely impossible to really measure how successful GW2 turns out to be, especially relative to a 'traditional' sub game like WoW.  Game fans will point to box sales to prove how successful the game is while detractors will point to server populations that anecdotally 'feel' like they're trailing off after a couple of months as proof that the game has no staying power and hasn't lived up to the hype.

[Dark_MadMax]

- GW2 will be a huge success. Not like WoW (which broke in entirely new market) but nevertheless.  It will be popular it will be talked about and it will last a while with many expansions (many more than wow ,since  this is how arena will make money)

- GW2 pve will be meh. Everyone will rave about and praise how innovative it is ,yadda yadda.1 months in people start complaining  about LFD,  bad loot , etc. In 3 months? - no one will give a shit about gw2 pve. Raiders will be back playing pandas

1+1 = 17?

Not having stellar, best on market pve is not the end of the world.  It didnt constrain DAOC from being popular , nor wow itself is flawless in this department. I believe it will be relatively weak amids the strength GW2 has (which are world, spvp and WWW), but still strong enough to not make a GW2 failure, especially combined with their no-sub model

SWTOR pve for example was meh (even more meh than GW2) ...  ant it didnt have anything else to  fallback onto -hence a  flop in long term once their Aces were played (story )

If we are making bold predictions: GW2 will supplant WoW as number #1 in NA and EU that will 40% because GW2 is good game and 60% because decrepit WoW train falling off the tracks.

"Cassandra predictions" is not about being bold :) It about being accurate when no one believes you

[kildorn]

My prediction is because it doesn't use a subscription model it will be difficult if not completely impossible to really measure how successful GW2 turns out to be, especially relative to a 'traditional' sub game like WoW.  Game fans will point to box sales to prove how successful the game is while detractors will point to server populations that anecdotally 'feel' like they're trailing off after a couple of months as proof that the game has no staying power and hasn't lived up to the hype.

This. GW1 has a silly number of players because you can just drop it and wander off for months. I wouldn't be shocked if the active population numbers wildly fluctuate depending on what random event they've started up.

My deep hope is that GW2 is successful enough that future MMOs use it's work on how public events function that we start seeing the whole "it's always the best outcome to pitch in and help" form of pve become the new standard.

[Kageru]

The PvE is fine, and has a huge scope for being expanded because they've removed the gear grind and the obsolescence of gear due to out-levelling. The difference is that it won't attract the achievers who demand gear progression and highly tuned content that needs max level and max gear to survive so you can move on to the next step. I don't think the hard-core PvE people were nearly as numerous as they noise they made, most people just want to kill stuff with their friends, but at the same time it's an interesting experiment in how to motivate people to group and do PvE without obvious progression and it might not work.

I think it will do well, but I don't think it's really competing with WoW or whatever replaces that. It's more likely to be a second MMO for a lot of people.

[Ingmar]

There's presumably some kind of rewards structure for PVE at max level though, right? As long as people see what they're doing as rewarding enough they'll do it.

[kildorn]

There's presumably some kind of rewards structure for PVE at max level though, right? As long as people see what they're doing as rewarding enough they'll do it.

Essentially from what they said the harder to acquire gear is there, it's simply statistically similar to the easy to acquire gear. Looking cool/different is the draw to obtaining it, as well as "if you enjoy this gameplay, do it. If you don't enjoy ____, don't fucking do it"

I don't know how sticky that will be for an MMO, but it's similar to GW1's where green/rare items have lists on the wiki about how to make the same stats with common availability items. It's all about the funky model/rarity.

[Ingmar]

Given the insane grinds that people do in GW1 for Obsidian Armor et. al. - probably pretty sticky for a good chunk of the population. Lack of sub fee always makes that kind of grind more palatable.

[Threash]

The only rewards for sPvP i saw were different looking sets of armor and dyes, the armor was even only available in the mists.  So pretty much the only reward is looking cooler while you are kicking ass, either you enjoy the sPvP (i did, lots) or you don't.

[schild]

This thread is terrible.

[lamaros]

"Cassandra predictions" is not about being bold :) It about being accurate when no one believes you

"It'll be really successful, just not that successful, also relative to what is, which I'm not really sure, something something PvE, PvP, no subs, etc."

Boldly going where no one has ever gone before, to be sure...

This thread is terrible.

[Furiously]

I bet they have 0 subscriptions in six months.

[cmlancas]

What's the point of this thread?

I thought it was about Soul Calibur, but all the sudden there's some fanboy telling me GW2 is the omgbestevar.

Since we're making baseless predictions, can you give me what you think the powerball numbers will be?  It's at $340 million!  

[Tyrnan]

I making this post so I can gleefully refer to it as a testament to my inductive-deductive powers or just let it quietly slip under the rug in case I turn out to be completely wrong :)

- GW2 will be a huge success. Not like WoW (which broke in entirely new market) but nevertheless.  It will be popular it will be talked about and it will last a while with many expansions (many more than wow ,since  this is how arena will make money)

Not much of a prediction really. They'd already sold "hundreds of thousands" of copies back in May. And it's one of the most talked about games of the year and definitely the most talked about MMO.

- GW2 Will be defacto PvP MMO. All the refugees from WaR,DaoC, WoW arena  will be there sooner or later - this will be THE pvp MMO. Both for arenas (sPvP ) and world (WvWvW) .And sorry EvE , spreadsheets are boring(not implying eve will die btw - just will lose its status as basically only pvp mmo on market)

It'll definitely appeal to those who enjoy PvP for PvPs sake. Those who enjoy catassing in other MMOs until they have the best gear so they can stomp noobs and teabag them? Maybe not so much.

- GW2 pve will be meh. Everyone will rave about and praise how innovative it is ,yadda yadda.1 months in people start complaining  about LFD,  bad loot , etc. In 3 months? - no one will give a shit about gw2 pve. Raiders will be back playing pandas

It's an MMO. A certain subset of players will ALWAYS complain they have nothing to do because they burned through all the content in the first few weeks. The dynamic events and scaling system should alleviate this somewhat (if it works as advertised) but nothing can prevent it. And I don't know why raiders would be playing the game in the first place since it doesn't have raids.

- Long term? -well I think it will stay as #2 MMO for quite a  while. Being much more succesafull than GW1,  but it will be always a distant #2, kinda like DaoC was PvP rival of EQ .  Something might change down the line and arena might want try to turn GW2 pve more raid'y ,geary like . But dont think it will trump the #1 gear grinder on the market and attract their core audience .They will still do ok because of their model - and many casual will play GW2 for whatever PvE it has, infused with new players every time arena.net makes a steam sale

Going "more raid'y, geary like" would go completely against one of their fundamental design philosophies for the game i.e. gear doesn't matter, skill does. Not gonna happen. And if it did they would likely alienate far more of the playerbase that they would attract.

-No idea whethere it will become esport or not. It has a lot of potential (a lot more than wow) but there is more to it than just having potential. It might (which wont surprise me) or it might be not (again wont be a surprise). esport is a tricky thing and GW2 is missing a lot of things right to make it viable .Even if it gets all the right things (spectator mode, private servers, tourneys) I still not sure how popular or watchable it will be. It has much better shot at it than wow due to better design, but it would be hard long uphill battle (mainly because no one really gives 2 fucks about esports anyhow)

It might be an e-sport. It might not be an e-sport. The prediction is where exactly?

[kildorn]

I bet they have 0 subscriptions in six months.

I bought a lifetime subscription already, so there! 

[Riggswolfe]

So, after playing in live I'll make my own prediction. This game will sell like hotcakes but interest will peter off in 6 months or less.

1) The game has been greatly dumbed down from GW1 and I think that'll hurt them in the long run. I've already unlocked all of my weapon skills for a thief and so 'ding grats' doesn't mean much except for utility skills and traits at this point. Sure, there is some strategy in what traits to invest in and what utility and elite skills to use but the game has lost one of the only major draws GW1 had, the strategy behind builds. TSW has opened up the theorycrafting door while GW2 has slammed it shut. In this area the game feels like a major step back from GW1.

2)The game is beautiful in the art direction but quite aimless in PvE. The quest heart things and dynamic events are fun right now, but they're already becoming repetitive and let's face it, will suck on alts because no one will be doing them. And frankly, a dynamic event where I have to kill 12 waves of Centaurs is nothing more than "Go kill 10 Centaurs" under another mechanic.

3)PvP will quickly become all about the hardcore and the casuals will get left behind and stop participating.

[KallDrexx]

So, after playing in live I'll make my own prediction. This game will sell like hotcakes but interest will peter off in 6 months or less.

1) The game has been greatly dumbed down from GW1 and I think that'll hurt them in the long run. I've already unlocked all of my weapon skills for a thief and so 'ding grats' doesn't mean much except for utility skills and traits at this point. Sure, there is some strategy in what traits to invest in and what utility and elite skills to use but the game has lost one of the only major draws GW1 had, the strategy behind builds. TSW has opened up the theorycrafting door while GW2 has slammed it shut. In this area the game feels like a major step back from GW1.

2)The game is beautiful in the art direction but quite aimless in PvE. The quest heart things and dynamic events are fun right now, but they're already becoming repetitive and let's face it, will suck on alts because no one will be doing them. And frankly, a dynamic event where I have to kill 12 waves of Centaurs is nothing more than "Go kill 10 Centaurs" under another mechanic.

3)PvP will quickly become all about the hardcore and the casuals will get left behind and stop participating.

I agree with #1.  There's not much that separates a level 5 and a level 80 except for some utility skills, and once someone has the skills they were looking for nothing changes.  I actually think it would have been better if you unlocked the weapon skills and your utility skills came through regular usage (i.e. they were reversed) since you use your weapon skills more often than utility skills.  It would feel a lot more progressive.

However I disagree with #2.  Sure low level mechanics wise they are repetitive but I'm not sure how they are different from other MMO, and some of the chains are interesting if you pay attention to everything going on and don't just go "kill kill kill".  At its' core all MMOs are about killing mobs, the difference being that GW2 allows you more flexibility of how and where you are killing those mobs, and allows you to explore without gimping your experience gain.  Also, the difference between "kill 12 waves of centauras" and "kill 10 centaurs" is that you can actually fail the GW2 version, although most people don't realize you failed it since you still get xp and whatnot.  There have been some events I've participated in with randoms that did end up failing because mobs got through and stole the items they were after (or we didn't protect enough slaves, etc...).  Being able to fail makes things more interesting than me.

Also, I think a lot of higher levels will still be going back to low level areas.  At level 20 I went back and went to the human starting area (even though I was asura) and still got to level 25 pretty quickly by ding the 1-14 human zone.  Since drops are still around your level I ended up with some upgrades, good xp, good money (especially after map completion) and skill points that I wouldn't have gotten if I didn't come back.  If they can keep some of the new events more focused on lower level areas (and make them interestingly enough to do) then I think there will be decent population in low level areas.

In regards to #3, it took a long time for casuals to get left behind in DAOC so I'm not sure why it would be different here, at least in WvW. 

[Ingmar]

In fact I believe casuals will be less likely to be left behind in WvW than in DAOC RvR. Not only is there no escalating powerlevel issue with realm rank, the incentive is much stronger to zerg up in GW2 it seems to me, which has the nice side effect of discouraging the 8v8ers and shunting them off to GvG where they can fight each other and not bother the low RR nobodies.

[luckton]

So when does WvW devolve into Emain 8-man jump-strafe zerging to the point where those casuals say "Fuck this shit"?

[kildorn]

So when does WvW devolve into Emain 8-man jump-strafe zerging to the point where those casuals say "Fuck this shit"?

Depends if the 8v8 types do structured pvp or wvw. I suspect they're going to do wvw because they never actually wanted 8v8 fights, they wanted to farm zergs.

Side note: spells have a 5-10 player AE cap in wvw. Zerg farming is harder than "run in, AE mez, PBAE bomb"

[Ingmar]

So when does WvW devolve into Emain 8-man jump-strafe zerging to the point where those casuals say "Fuck this shit"?

My point is I don't think it will. For one the environment is just too objective-rich for that sort of shit to not at least indirectly advance the cause. The "real" 8v8ers will be playing sPVP instead; the ones who just ganked groups of 2-3 people, dodged the zerg, and patted themselves on the back will probably mostly just cry a lot.

[Ashamanchill]

I bet they have 0 subscriptions in six months.

I bet they have 6 subs in zero months!

[schild]

Oh man did I forget to close this dumb fucking thread?

Locked.