2012 College Football

[ghost]

I wasn't really sold on them until I watched a couple of their games.  They are fast.  And they've now beaten 3 top 25 teams, one of which was a top 5 at the beginning of the year.  It's not an SEC schedule, but it's not a Boise schedule either.  They end up with OSU and Stanford, both of which are decent but not great.  It's a comparable, though slightly easier, schedule than K-State plays, in my opinion.

[Paelos]

Arizona and Washington have 8 losses combined. USC is now behind UCLA.

OU, Texas Tech, West Virginia, OK State, and Texas will all have higher rankings at the end of the day that Oregon's quality wins.

[ghost]

Arizona and Washington have 8 losses combined. USC is now behind UCLA.

OU, Texas Tech, West Virginia, OK State, and Texas will all have higher rankings at the end of the day that Oregon's quality wins.

Maybe.  Other than OU they look about even right now.  We'll have to see how it shakes out at the end of the year.

[SnakeCharmer]

Bama can be beaten. Last night proved exactly how their offense can be shut down. The fact LSU went into a soft coverage prevent with the game on the line was beyond stupid, and let McCarron pick apart their coverage with the same dink and dunk stuff they pulled all first half. Let's be clear, while McCarron did help them move the ball downfield, he's not a downfield passer. Forcing him to do that make Bama completely one-dimensional. It's the reason he was 1-7 in the second half on passes before the final drive.

McCarron had a bad night and came into the game a bit dinged up, but to say he's not a downfield passer is not quite accurate.  His completion ratio for passes thrown over 25 yards is a pretty insane 72 percent.  His number 1 (Amari Cooper) receiver going out with an ankle didn't help.  Hell, as a team, Bama is really dinged up and desperately need an offweek.  But LSU played better than they've played all season and probably better than they'll play the rest of the year.  Mettenberger had his Stephen Garcia 2010 moment (which frankly is what I was terrified of) and his receivers actually started making plays.

Saban had remarked that before last year's LSU / Bama regular season game that the team was a little too ramped up.  I wonder if they came out here this year just a little too flat.  But going into Tiger Stadium at night vs LSU and coming out with a win?  Hell yeah, I'll take it and RUN.

Honestly though, Texas A&M scares me more than LSU does.

[Paelos]

Personal opinion, I don't think McCarron had a bad night. I think he faced his first taste of adversity, and it revealed what he actually is as a passer. The truth about Alabama's offense is they don't like to pass much, because they already know this. In fact, they are 113th in the country in pass attempts. McCarron came through at the end, but even then that drive was more about Miles choice to play in a soft coverage, and Yeldon making an outstanding play on a screen.

I think if you have a weapon, Saban uses it. When you don't, Saban hides it. He's hiding McCarron, and attacking with guys like Yeldon and Lacey.

I do think A&M will give you issues. I've warned my cocky Alabama fan friends about this already. It will be the first time you've faced a dynamic passer all year.

[ghost]

I'm not going to argue that McCarron is Tom Brady, but you have to give the guy some credit.  He's thrown for almost 2,000 yards, 19 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.  That's pretty goddamned good. 

[SnakeCharmer]

Here's where you're (Paelos) looking at numbers and not actually watching the game to see how they got there...

Those 2000 yards, 19 TDs and 0 INTs were obtained in basically in the first half.  LSU is the only game he's played the full game  Every other game, he (and the rest of the starters) were pulled as early as after the first offensive series after halftime or sometime else in the 3rd quarter.  So, if you were to somehow average out, I'd guesstimate that McCarron (and the rest of the 1st string) were playing an average of 2.5 quarters a game up until LSU.   Backups have played the rest, and when they put the backups in, they switch to a run read option and grind the rest of the game out.  The backups have thrown maybe a half dozen passes - the rest are all runs.

He's not hiding him, dude.  He's had free reign of that offense and has been slinging it around since the BCS game.  And exposing how to shut Bama down is a whole lot easier than actually doing it.  It's no secret - load as many as you can in the box and put your secondary in man/zone mix coverage.  But besides LSU, who else on Bama's schedule (nevermind whoever they'll play in the BCS NCG) has the horses to actually do it?  Nobody.

Also, on Yeldon's TD, LSU wasn't in soft coverage.  They were bringing the heat, which is why the screen pass was a perfect playcall.

[ghost]

Give Paelos a break.  He's a CPA.  He sits around and masturbates to numbers all day.

[Paelos]

Here's where you're (Paelos) looking at numbers and not actually watching the game to see how they got there...

He's playing at a high level and the expectations are huge. People will try to shoehorn him into the Heisman talk, but nobody really believes it. Also, you are right that he's going most of his TD damage in the first half with about 1300 yards.

I'll take it a step further though. Here's his breakdown of ranked v. unranked teams. Unranked? 16 TDs and 1600 yards. Ranked? 235 against MS State with 3 Tds, 165 against LSU with 1 TD. Now if you know what we know about MS State, saying they are a ranked or tough team should be said with a crooked smile. My point is that you can toss out the numbers from prior games. The only game numbers you need to worry about right now is the LSU game, the upcoming A&M, and the SEC championship. That will tell you all you need to know about how McCarron will fare in an National Championship if he gets a shot. Those 3 will be against the toughest opponents, and the ones that have a standout facet of their game they can showcase.

In fact, take a good look at the A&M game because their pass D isn't that great. There will be chances for AJ to make plays if he can. A&M's rushing defense is 2x better than their pass coverage D, and they will try to force the issue.

[Nebu]

I think if you have a weapon, Saban uses it. When you don't, Saban hides it. He's hiding McCarron, and attacking with guys like Yeldon and Lacey.

I just want to say that Yeldon may be the best true freshman RB that I've watched in my entire life.  Speed, strength, and quickness... he's like an NFL sized Barry Sanders.  If he can stay healthy, I expect him to win the Heisman next year.

[Paelos]

I would agree with that. Yeldon has the stop and go lateral movement speed that can eat alive a defense that isn't absolutely fundamentally sound on their tackles. And there aren't that many of those in college ball.

[SnakeCharmer]

That will tell you all you need to know about how McCarron will fare in an National Championship if he gets a shot.

You mean...such as...win the offensive MVP in the BCS NCG as he did last year against LSU?

I'm not quite sure what your argument here is other than you're really really wrong.  He's not the elite, prototypical NFL second coming of a Manning Brady lovechild, but he's pretty damned good.

[Paelos]

He went for 234 yards with no TDs in the NCG.

I'm not trying to rewrite history here. The fact he was the "offensive MVP" or whatever you want to call it is a joke. The defense in that game held LSU to 0 points in the national championship. Fuck, you could have kicked a field goal and won. All else is a moot point. In fact, your kicker should have gotten the offensive MVP in that game for his 5 FGs.

I'm making the argument that people always want to make the QB bigger than he is when a team wins, but I think McCarron is a wash. He's not a liability, he's not really an asset either. In the same way I questioned whether or not LSU's QB could perform on a national stage (he didn't 3 times in a row in 2011), I question whether or not McCarron can do the same against a K State, an Oregon, an A&M, or even a UGA. Maybe he won't have to, which is what all Alabama fans should be rooting for.

[Nebu]

I think he was the offensive MVP only because they couldn't give it to all 5 of the linemen. 

[01101010]

He went for 234 yards with no TDs in the NCG.

I'm not trying to rewrite history here. The fact he was the "offensive MVP" or whatever you want to call it is a joke. The defense in that game held LSU to 0 points in the national championship. Fuck, you could have kicked a field goal and won. All else is a moot point. In fact, your kicker should have gotten the offensive MVP in that game for his 5 FGs.

I'm making the argument that people always want to make the QB bigger than he is when a team wins, but I think McCarron is a wash. He's not a liability, he's not really an asset either. In the same way I questioned whether or not LSU's QB could perform on a national stage (he didn't 3 times in a row in 2011), I question whether or not McCarron can do the same against a K State, an Oregon, an A&M, or even a UGA. Maybe he won't have to, which is what all Alabama fans should be rooting for.

I believe I could speak for LSU and say we'd take McCarron in a heartbeat. But first, we need to find someone for Offensive Coord.

[Ingmar]

I'm not trying to rewrite history here. The fact he was the "offensive MVP" or whatever you want to call it is a joke. The defense in that game held LSU to 0 points in the national championship. Fuck, you could have kicked a field goal and won. All else is a moot point. In fact, your kicker should have gotten the offensive MVP in that game for his 5 FGs.

Yeah this. The guy is a fine QB - I WOULD KILL FOR A QB THIS GOOD - but he's really not up to the level of the rest of the squad.

Also mark it on your calendars, I agreed with Paelos about a sports thing. 

[Rasix]

It's amazing how long you guys have maintained that putrid offense.  Your games with us are absolutely dreadful.

[Ingmar]

I am nearly certain we had to make some sort of horrible deal with the devil type agreement where Maynard had to be the starting QB in order to get Keenan Allen to stay. I mean, I know recruiting them together was a package deal, but I think it goes farther than that, and even as good as Allen is it has been fucking us. Maynard is done after this year, and the redshirt dude is supposed to be really good, so we'll see. Allen probably goes to the NFL, but we have some good skill players at WR and RB still. The o line continues to worry me though.

[Paelos]

I have several questions about the games this weekend in CFB.

1 - Can FSU keep from laying an egg on the road against a very sub-par VA Tech team? They've yet to really blow any team out on the road, and dropped a bad one to NC State.
2 - Is Oregon State good enough to beat Stanford on the road?
3 - Will USC go into a tailspin against AZ State?
4 - Can Alabama contain Johnny Football and A&M?
5 - How many will Oregon hang on Cal?
6 - What will ND have to apologize for after the Boston College game?
7 - Which Big 10 team will set football back another 5 decades?
8 - Will Auburn go winless in the SEC two years off a national title?

[Ingmar]

I think we won't give up as many as Colorado did at least. 

[ghost]

I have several questions about the games this weekend in CFB.

1 - Can FSU keep from laying an egg on the road against a very sub-par VA Tech team? They've yet to really blow any team out on the road, and dropped a bad one to NC State.
2 - Is Oregon State good enough to beat Stanford on the road?
3 - Will USC go into a tailspin against AZ State?
4 - Can Alabama contain Johnny Football and A&M?
5 - How many will Oregon hang on Cal?
6 - What will ND have to apologize for after the Boston College game?
7 - Which Big 10 team will set football back another 5 decades?
8 - Will Auburn go winless in the SEC two years off a national title?

Yes, no, no, absolutely, a million, absolutely nothing, all of them, absofuckinglutely

I would love to see Kentucky play Auburn.   

[Chimpy]

The answer to number 7 is Illinois, clearly.

[ghost]

Hey, you guys got your shot coming against Purdon't here soon.   

[ghost]

Is there a more boring football team than Virginia Tech?  I'm looking at the Florida State/Va Tech game and thinking I'd rather watch the Ball State/Toledo game from last night again.  At least Toledo has a guy named Fluellen, which is awesome.

[Paelos]

Hey that Toledo and Ball State turned out to be pretty exciting. I love the T-Th games. They usually provide a lot of closely matched entertainment.

EDIT: Go Ohio! Beat those Bowling Green...somethings. Google says Falcons. 

[Abagadro]

[Paelos]

Watching this VA Tech v. FSU game is painful. They are both just so bad offensively.

[ghost]

I told you it was going to be bad.   

[ghost]

This talk of A and M upsetting Alabama is funny.  Bama is going to demolish A and M.  There may be dead bodies on the field after it's over.   

[Paelos]

Oh I think Alabama will win by 10 or so, but I don't think they can run away with it. A&M has way too much firepower to be dominated completely in the game.

A&M needs to focus on ball security against Alabama. They would have beaten LSU soundly except for their 5 turnovers in that game. Also A&M can put up 400 yards against anyone. Whether or not that's enough to win is debatable, but I think they can keep it interesting.

[01101010]

I don't think the A&M defensive line will make a dent in that fortress of linemen they surround McCarron with. There are very few teams that can in my opinion.

[Paelos]

I totally agree. A&M's best hope is to play a shifting ameoba defense that confuses the line. They can't hope to bull rush them, so they'll have to outscheme them.

[ghost]

Alabama's defense is damned good.  I see no reason to believe that A and M will put up 400 yards against them. 

[Paelos]

LSU's defense is damn good too. Maybe even better. A&M put up 400 on them.

Alabama's main weakness is they've been untested by any real offense with a top tier QB. No, Denard Robinson isn't that at all.

[ghost]

Aggie is going to get squashed.  LSU's defense may have been better before idiocy lost them a great player, but they aren't right now.