Irene, Goodnight Irene, Irene Goodnight

[01101010]

What happens when the natural gas gets cut off?

That's good for starters, where's your uncut timber pile?

Behind it?

[Merusk]

Streakers on the Weather Channel  Well, ok one guy rips his trousers down the rest keep their boxer briefs up.

Yet another Fox News (local) fail  Maybe you should check the scale of your footage before sticking your weather person "out in that" via Green Screen.

Paelos, you're beginning to sound like the Right-Wing idiots circulating that this was all mandated government hype to distract from "Obama's jobs problem."

[Lantyssa]

Seriously.  I've been through a dozen hurricanes.  Some fizzle, some do massive damage.  I've known tropical depressions that shut Houston down for weeks and I've known Cat 2s that blow on by with little more than a couple of tree limbs down.  You can never know which it was until it's over.

The most we can say about any storm is that the more powerful the winds, the larger the system, and the more slowly it moves, the more likely it is to cause wide-spread damage.  And the worst damage is usually due to a combination of structural failures brought on by the stresses of the storm.  All you can do is prepare and hope it's a dud.

[Mrbloodworth]

I'm out of power.

ETA: 3 days - 2 weeks.

Dominion power sucks.

[Morat20]

I'm out of power.

ETA: 3 days - 2 weeks.

Dominion power sucks.

It's not your power company, exactly. From personal experience with major storms that take down wide areas, they prioritize in a certain fashion:

Hospitals and other major public buildings (cops, jails, shelters, water and sewage treatment and pumping facilities) first -- and anything that is dangerous unpowered.
Supermarkets, gas stations, other dense commercial areas second. (people need gas and food. They can live without electricty, but not without food and water)
Dense Residential -- large apartment blocks, etc -- and places where they can restore large areas with small fixes. (Replacing a single transformer or downed line that can restore several blocks, etc)
Houses and line breaks and dead transformers near the end of a line last.

Moral of the story: try to live on the same circuit as your local HEB. :)

[Mrbloodworth]

No, its them, most of this area has overhead power lines.

Its retarded in a coastal area this old.

[Sky]

Wish we had gone up to the Inn at Long Trail, route 4 got washed out on both sides of the pass. "No, sorry...can't make it back to work, stuck on the mountain!"

Route 7 also got washed out, VT got hit pretty hard by floods.

[Morat20]

No, its them, most of this area has overhead power lines.

Its retarded in a coastal area this old.

You guys aren't even in the prime hurricane zone. When Ike came rolling through, Centerpoint was years behind their tree-cutting schedule.

I know, because I'd called in to ask early that year about having some branches cut back that were getting too close to the lines -- there were places where tree branches, large ones had penetrated and wrapped around lines. They had to have been growing around the lines like that for ten years.

The person I talked to said they'd try to bump me up, but that Centerpoint's line-clearing teams were four or five years behind schedule. 

[Merusk]

Funny, that was the same story around here with Duke/ Cinergy when Ike came through.  I lucked-out by being a newer subdivision (2003).  Right up the street, not more than 500 feet, there was a group of houses without power for a month because a tree had taken-down the street-to-house lines and those are the very last things to get fixed.

[Morat20]

Funny, that was the same story around here with Duke/ Cinergy when Ike came through.  I lucked-out by being a newer subdivision (2003).  Right up the street, not more than 500 feet, there was a group of houses without power for a month because a tree had taken-down the street-to-house lines and those are the very last things to get fixed.

My parents were on the grid that serviced my town's main street (the one with supermarkets and gas stations) and all buried lines. They got turned back on in less than 36 hours. I was on the end of a line, and went 11 days -- had a pole down on the one line into my street.

My in-laws actually went longer (13 days) because they  were in a cluster of 4 houses that had something...weird. I don't know what -- it was buried lines there too -- but they were dead last. Not that it was a problem -- my father in law had two generators, and had loaned one to the neighbors. Their neighbors tossed an extension cord back over when they got their power, so he didn't even have to clean out the fridge. He still talks about getting one of those fancy all-up natural gas home generators.

I can't intellectually fault their priorities, but god does it suck to be among the last handfuls of houses to get the lights back.

[01101010]

Funny, that was the same story around here with Duke/ Cinergy when Ike came through.  I lucked-out by being a newer subdivision (2003).  Right up the street, not more than 500 feet, there was a group of houses without power for a month because a tree had taken-down the street-to-house lines and those are the very last things to get fixed.

My parents were on the grid that serviced my town's main street (the one with supermarkets and gas stations) and all buried lines. They got turned back on in less than 36 hours. I was on the end of a line, and went 11 days -- had a pole down on the one line into my street.

My in-laws actually went longer (13 days) because they  were in a cluster of 4 houses that had something...weird. I don't know what -- it was buried lines there too -- but they were dead last. Not that it was a problem -- my father in law had two generators, and had loaned one to the neighbors. Their neighbors tossed an extension cord back over when they got their power, so he didn't even have to clean out the fridge. He still talks about getting one of those fancy all-up natural gas home generators.

I can't intellectually fault their priorities, but god does it suck to be among the last handfuls of houses to get the lights back.

Amen man. As the Miami Beach was coming out of Wilma, the power came on in increments. My neighbor and I was chatting, having a cigarette while he strummed his guitar and all the sudden the street lights came on and the apts across the street all lit up. You could honestly hear a muffled cheer from that side of the street. Our side still had to wait a day and a half.

[Mrbloodworth]

No, its them, most of this area has overhead power lines.

Its retarded in a coastal area this old.

You guys aren't even in the prime hurricane zone. When Ike came rolling through, Centerpoint was years behind their tree-cutting schedule.

I know, because I'd called in to ask early that year about having some branches cut back that were getting too close to the lines -- there were places where tree branches, large ones had penetrated and wrapped around lines. They had to have been growing around the lines like that for ten years.

The person I talked to said they'd try to bump me up, but that Centerpoint's line-clearing teams were four or five years behind schedule. 

No need to cut tree limbs when they are underground :)

Areas around here lost power due to low wind gusts.

[Morat20]

No need to cut tree limbs when they are underground :)

Areas around here lost power due to low wind gusts.

I wondered why here -- you know, in Houston -- we have so many above ground lines. Most new development is buried, but I get the impression that's mostly aesthetics. Part of it is cost -- it's expensive to bury lines when the original ones work fine. You'd still think they'd save money, long term, by burying as much as they could.

[Merusk]

Until they flood and blow-out the buried transformers. 

Burying is all about aesthetics, no doubt. I think buried lines also lead to vermin in the access areas that cause problems in addition to the extra cost of the vaults & trenching, etc.  Not sure there, though.

[bhodi]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C6b54bZepoA

There are downed power lines and road blocks all over near my work. Positive: I am in a diff state and unaffected personally. Negative: we have numerous fiber cuts to our colo facilities and our failover did not go smoothly. No eta from covad or level3, and It's been a rough 5 hours so far trying to get shit working on a hastily created limited-bandwidth VPN going out to the internet and back into the colo from another direction.

[Mrbloodworth]

No need to cut tree limbs when they are underground :)

Areas around here lost power due to low wind gusts.

I wondered why here -- you know, in Houston -- we have so many above ground lines. Most new development is buried, but I get the impression that's mostly aesthetics. Part of it is cost -- it's expensive to bury lines when the original ones work fine. You'd still think they'd save money, long term, by burying as much as they could.

Check the Dominion power website. They say its all a problem of cost. Never does it enter that they currently have thousands out of power for the next week or two.

[Ghambit]

You know the fit hits the shan when libertarian Vermont starts asking for federal help.  They're saying it's the worst nat. disaster in 80 yrs there.
I think taken as a whole, Irene probably did as much dmg. as some of the worst Hurricanes on record.  Amazing.

More to come this season btw, with the weather pattern we've not got in place.  We'll possibly be out of the woods come October, but for the next month it'll start getting dicey.

[Numtini]

Power in a couple of towns is down, including where I work. I just got back from a very frustrating meeting where people couldn't understand the concept that even if we hooked up to a generator, Comcast's lines are down and email and the cable tv channel are still going to be down. Eventually we hooked up a generator and I demonstrated the concept. (And yes, MEMA is sticking with distributing information only via internet.)

On tree limbs, we apparently evaluated the cost of burying power lines, but that debate lasts only as long as it remains dark. The minute the power came back on suddenly it was too expensive.

[KallDrexx]

My mom had underground power to her house.  In 2004 when we got hit by a cat 1 or 2 hurricane she still lost power, but my house (5 miles away) with above ground power lines still had power.

Underground power doesn't mean your power is less likely to go out.

[Morat20]

My mom had underground power to her house.  In 2004 when we got hit by a cat 1 or 2 hurricane she still lost power, but my house (5 miles away) with above ground power lines still had power.

Underground power doesn't mean your power is less likely to go out.

It does mean fewer trees dropping your power poles in high winds though.

I did wonder about flooding.

[Paelos]

Paelos, you're beginning to sound like the Right-Wing idiots circulating that this was all mandated government hype to distract from "Obama's jobs problem."

Yeah those people are nuts. However, The NY Times sums up my feelings on the situation pretty nicely.

[Mrbloodworth]

My mom had underground power to her house.  In 2004 when we got hit by a cat 1 or 2 hurricane she still lost power, but my house (5 miles away) with above ground power lines still had power.

Underground power doesn't mean your power is less likely to go out.

The grids next to her had to have been all in as well. Even FEMA agrees, so do most reports that underground is preferable to overhead ( With some regional restrictions, like areas build on sand banks ). Most of the reports I am reading seem to mix up the huge main supply lines with residential to muddy the issue and inflate cost numbers.

The ONLY barrier to doing this is cost, a cost your power company does not want to pay, even if its a superior method with less likely hood of breakdown. This is why, in new construction, or even road expansions, they ARE buried.

[Abagadro]

Distribution lines aren't that expensive to bury. Transmission lines are monumentally expensive to bury. Be interesting to see where the outages occur to see if burying distribution lines would help the problem.

[Ghambit]

Paelos, you're beginning to sound like the Right-Wing idiots circulating that this was all mandated government hype to distract from "Obama's jobs problem."

Yeah those people are nuts. However, The NY Times sums up my feelings on the situation pretty nicely.

One of the recent thrusts in meteorology right now are revamping the classification system.  Safir-Simpson themselves even said they didnt intend for their system to be used as it was, for as long as it has.  Irene is a classic example:  the overall energy of the storm wasnt contained in a small region underneath the central dense overcast (CDO), instead the energy was spread out.  That's not to say the energy was less, it was just located in a broader area.

Also, our current classification system doesnt account for anything related to water.  You have to dig deeper for that information, but that's getting into grognard territory that the media doesnt routinely get into.  This has to do with surge and rainfall estimates, which can get complex due to terrain and seafloor characteristics beyond the usual speed and fetch considerations.

Lastly, any time a storm travels relatively parallel to a coastline, very small shifts in track mean huge differences in landfall.  In this case still though, it was only a difference of about 50 miles that determined NYC/NJ's fate.  There were a few ERC wobbles after passing the bahamas that easily accounted for this distance, meaning the storm couldnt bring the core of its surge past Hatteras uninterrupted.  50 miles to the east and 3 days worth of unfettered 500 mile cane-surge slams into NYC/NE.

I look at it as a difference akin to when Andrew wobbled last minute into South Miami rather than South Lauderdale.  A difference that basically spared the entirety of SoFla proper and cut the dmg. costs easily in half.

Anyways, regardless of all this most of the states in the NE broke many records and are recording 1-100 yr. flood events.

[Minvaren]

Amen man. As the Miami Beach was coming out of Wilma, the power came on in increments. My neighbor and I was chatting, having a cigarette while he strummed his guitar and all the sudden the street lights came on and the apts across the street all lit up. You could honestly hear a muffled cheer from that side of the street. Our side still had to wait a day and a half.

Pretty much the same situation with my townhouse complex and Ike (their side of the street was on the same circuit as a grocery store and a pharmacy).

[Lantyssa]

If you want a really quick response, be on the same circuit as a hospital.

I did wonder about flooding.

Flooding is bad, but consider our ground and what's happening with all the water pipes around here.  Our clay gumbo isn't stable at all.

[Ingmar]

If you want a really quick response, be on the same circuit as a hospital.

Yeah, when California had the summer of endless rolling blackouts, our power never went out at home as we were on the same circuit as Seton. If only my office had been next to a hospital too.

[Johny Cee]

You know the fit hits the shan when libertarian Vermont starts asking for federal help.  They're saying it's the worst nat. disaster in 80 yrs there.
I think taken as a whole, Irene probably did as much dmg. as some of the worst Hurricanes on record.  Amazing.

More to come this season btw, with the weather pattern we've not got in place.  We'll possibly be out of the woods come October, but for the next month it'll start getting dicey.

Vermont is the most liberal state in the US, if you don't count DC.  Link.

The Champlain Valley was fucked pretty hard by geography.  The Adirondacks in the East, and Greens on the Vermont side, mean there isn't any good place for the water to go and areas are reporting between 4 and 8 inches of rain.  Streams and rivers are out of their banks, bridges are down, and flash floods have devoured roads all over the place.

I spent the day helping my parents drain their basement (thankfully, pumps were going again before the water drowned the furnace), and finding alternate driving routes because roads are closed all over the place.

[Merusk]

Back on the buried vs lines topic, NPR actually covered this today in ATC.

The rule of thumb - per the interview - is approximately 1:10 line vs bury.

http://www.npr.org/2011/08/29/140042767/would-burying-power-lines-reduce-power-outages

[Simond]

I'm glad nobody was really hurt by this

Apart from, you know, the two dozen or so dead people.

[Paelos]

I'm glad nobody was really hurt by this

Apart from, you know, the two dozen or so dead people.

115 people die every day in American car accidents. That is my response to that. And take this next part with a grain of salt, but you could probably do math about how the Hurricane may have saved lives by keeping them off the roads.

[Ghambit]

You know the fit hits the shan when libertarian Vermont starts asking for federal help.  They're saying it's the worst nat. disaster in 80 yrs there.
I think taken as a whole, Irene probably did as much dmg. as some of the worst Hurricanes on record.  Amazing.

More to come this season btw, with the weather pattern we've not got in place.  We'll possibly be out of the woods come October, but for the next month it'll start getting dicey.

Vermont is the most liberal state in the US, if you don't count DC.  Link.

I know this.  But, I've always considered them more like self-sustainable (independent) liberals.  People go up there to be left alone and take care of themselves... liberal or not.
Anyways, I"ve always looked at libertarianism more of a liberal thought process than most people.  But, that's a politics forum discussion.

I used to dream of buying a place up there and writing a book (like everyone seems to do)  or designing a one-man produced game.  Maybe Irene will drive down home prices up there and I can make this happen!  Maple syrup, here I come!

[luckton]

Good lord...I watched Matt Lauer lay into his own weatherman on the Today show yesterday about the whole "Irene wasn't as bad as we thought, so why did you all freak out about it?!" thing.  I swear I wanted to punch him in the neck through the TV.  Never mind that he was trying to shift the blame about hyping up the storm on the backs of his own comrades so that he looks better, but all this hindsight talk is just going to setup the same scenario as what occurred with Andrew and Katrina...people will think "oh, well the last storm that actually hit us didn't do shit, so we'll just sit through this one too."  And then BOOM, lives get lost.

Whatever...I hope the next storm that uppercuts the coastline actually hits as serious Cat 5 and blows away your kittens, dogs and/or whatever material possession(s) you have that would make the nay-sayers shut the frack up and thank whatever deity they want that they're at least alive.

[01101010]

SHORYUKEN!

[Paelos]

Whatever...I hope the next storm that uppercuts the coastline actually hits as serious Cat 5 and blows away your kittens, dogs and/or whatever material possession(s) you have that would make the nay-sayers shut the frack up and thank whatever deity they want that they're at least alive.

It won't. They don't work that way. Hell, Hurricanes get close to New York all the time, but they only cause about $100M in damage or more every 20 years. Also a major hurricane at Cat 3 or higher hasn't hit New York since 1938.

Now, the Carolinas and Florida? yeah they know the drill by now.