Irene, Goodnight Irene, Irene Goodnight

[Khaldun]

Here comes a hurricane right up the East Coast and probably straight into NYC. This is a scenario that forecasters have been fretting about for years: worst-case has significant portions of NYC under water. Philly, Washington DC, Maryland, and NJ are going to see some significant winds and heavy rain unless the cone veers out to sea today or tomorrow morning--the current tracks have the eye staying just off-shore as Irene moves up the coast, which is pretty much the "that never happens, but that's really bad" forecast. North Carolina coast will get hit too, but that's a more normal thing.

http://www.weather.com/weather/hurricanecentral/article/tropical-depression-nine-storm-hurricane-irene_2011-08-20
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201109.html

[Merusk]

I recall another one being forecast to do exactly the same route a few years ago.  What actually happened was it hit the Carolinas and then spun out to sea again.  Mayhap that will happen this time as well.

[Vaiti]

Nah, with the way things have been going lately, this thing is going to pass right through NYC.

[luckton]

I knew this was gonna be a 'not Florida' thing from the get go.  Unless they start out around Barbados or St. Lucia, they'll always turn north and tiger-uppercut the east coast.

GL to all you earthquake 'veterans' 

[Merusk]

May it snow in So. Cal so the east coast can laugh back. 

[MisterNoisy]

I know there's some NoVA folks on here - good luck to you guys and everyone else in the path.  Irene's looking pretty serious.

[Numtini]

Latest from the Hurricane center is showing it breaking on the Carolinas and down to Tropical Storm strength when it gets to NY (and for me Cape Cod.)

[Khaldun]

Yeah. Still probably means a big storm surge for NYC but not so much wind for the Mid-Atlantic.

[Paelos]

Much ado about nothing is what it sounds like.

Gotta love the instant media for drumming up panic whenever they can.

[Vaiti]

The entire East Coast is going to be swept into the ocean. I'm expecting a volcano to erupt in D.C. sometime next week.

[luckton]

Much ado about nothing is what it sounds like.

Gotta love the instant media for drumming up panic whenever they can.

Media panic didn't get thousands of people to leave Miami when Andrew hit.

Media panic and post-Andrew coverage didn't get thousands of people to leave New Orleans when Katrina hit.

Hurricanes are serious business.  Let the media do there thing in this regard.  At least then it makes the idiots that stay behind look dumber when they cry that they didn't know and/or didn't listen.

[HaemishM]

After Katrina, better you East Coast assholes be prepared than drowned.

[01101010]

After Katrina, better you East Coast assholes be prepared than drowned.

But that is all part of the plan. Media panic is for people outside the blast zone. When I was in South FL, we paid attention to weather models from the local weather service and hurricane center. We didn't give a shit about the news' stories predicting the end of the world. What got people to pick up and get out (myself not included) was a knock on the door from the cops saying a required evac was issued and if we chose to stay, we were basically on our own till the storm passed.

Then again, the news loves weather stories because it's a big gambling game. Whoever picks the correct path model wins the game!

[Mrbloodworth]

No nags head for me. Bastard.

[JWIV]

No nags head for me. Bastard.

Yah, a friend of mine was supposed to go down to the Outer Banks this weekend.  Don't think that's so much in the works now.

[Mrbloodworth]

Nope, Its all been evacuated. Thankfully ill get my money back.

[Paelos]

Hurricanes are serious business.  Let the media do there thing in this regard.  At least then it makes the idiots that stay behind look dumber when they cry that they didn't know and/or didn't listen.

New Orleans people didn't leave because they were dirt ass poor or dumb as rocks.

I'm betting it spins off into the oceans after skimming the coast and makes all those projections look silly. Either that, or it slams into NYC and ruins the city.

I'm fine with either.

[KallDrexx]

In the 2004 Hurricanes people in Florida did actually evacuate, but by the time the 3rd one hit us most gave up trying to escape it and just bunkered down.

[01101010]

No nags head for me. Bastard.

Coward 

[Morat20]

Hurricanes are the worst when they hit areas that, well, aren't built with them in mind. Florida, the Gulf Coast, the Bahamas -- at least they build things (in general) and do planning with hurricanes in mind.

NYC not so much.

Still wouldn't top the one that managed to hit England a few years back. I didn't even think that was possible.

[Reg]

Hurricane Hazel made it all the way up to Toronto back in the '50s and people died in the flooding. It taught us not to build in flood plains anymore.

[Surlyboi]

Most of the taller buildings in midtown and lower Manhattan were built to withstand some serious wind. That shouldn't be much of an issue. The outlying boroughs like Brooklyn and Queens stand to get seriously flooded if there's major storm surge. There could also be some serious flooding in the subways which will gum up public transportation, but barring tornadoes, we should come out beat up a little but not devastated.

[Yegolev]

If Atlanta can survive a hurricane, so can NYC.  Of course, our bar for what is an acceptable level of functionality is lower.

[Merusk]

Hurricane Hazel made it all the way up to Toronto back in the '50s and people died in the flooding. It taught us not to build in flood plains anymore.

Look at you Cana-Diens thinkin' you're all special and shiny because you learn from history.  American exceptionalisim will protect us from the past!    

People still bitch about hurricane ties on buildings around here, even after Ike came this far north and wrecked shit in '08.  We don't learn.

And "beat up but not devastated" can still be a financial mess because of things that don't get tied down or are allowed to happen in the areas outlying NYC because "Hurricanes/ strong winds don't happen here."  Roof losses alone are bad.. roof losses + water damage?  Awesomesauce time.

[Surlyboi]

Oh, we're gonna tie our shit down. Make no mistake. That "It can't happen here" shit was shaken out of our systems after 9/11. 'Sides, New Yorkers have always been a bit paranoid anyway. The people will be ok, Bloomie's assholes might fuck shit up, but the people will be ok.

[Numtini]

A Cat 2 or worse hurricane hitting the Northeast would be a Really Big Deal.  Here on Cape, we haven't had a hurricane in 15 years and it's been twenty years since we had a Cat 2. The last Cat 3 was in the 50s. There's a lot of construction and development that's never been tested against hurricane force winds and is likely to go away.

[Merusk]

Oh, we're gonna tie our shit down. Make no mistake. That "It can't happen here" shit was shaken out of our systems after 9/11. 'Sides, New Yorkers have always been a bit paranoid anyway. The people will be ok, Bloomie's assholes might fuck shit up, but the people will be ok.

You misunderstand, I don't mean windblown debris like trash cans, planters and lawn furniture.  These are things your average homeowner isn't going to be able to fix because they're inside the wall.

When I say roof loss, I mean picking it up and peeling it back like a pop-top because the only thing holding the trusses in place are a few 16d nails.  Storm surge has the possibility of doing the same to sills at foundations on 25+ year-old homes depending on how they're connected to the foundation.  If it's just a few powder-actuated fasteners instead of sill bolts or straps.. the water's going to shift things.

If there's actual honest-to-goodness flooding, even worse as there's the possibility of hydrostatic pressure pushing foundation walls off of footings.  Hurricane & flood-prone areas tend to have flood vents to prevent this, I doubt the older homes in the NY area have been retrofitted with such.

'Course that's all worst-case scenario stuff, but when that's what you're forced to plan for it's what you foresee happening.

[Vaiti]

You need to skip about a minute in until you get a view of it.

Hurricane Irene View from Space ISS, Category 4 Hurricane

Could just look larger because of the perspective. But I thought it was pretty neat. Storms from space look rad.

[Surlyboi]

Oh, we're gonna tie our shit down. Make no mistake. That "It can't happen here" shit was shaken out of our systems after 9/11. 'Sides, New Yorkers have always been a bit paranoid anyway. The people will be ok, Bloomie's assholes might fuck shit up, but the people will be ok.

You misunderstand, I don't mean windblown debris like trash cans, planters and lawn furniture.  These are things your average homeowner isn't going to be able to fix because they're inside the wall.

When I say roof loss, I mean picking it up and peeling it back like a pop-top because the only thing holding the trusses in place are a few 16d nails.  Storm surge has the possibility of doing the same to sills at foundations on 25+ year-old homes depending on how they're connected to the foundation.  If it's just a few powder-actuated fasteners instead of sill bolts or straps.. the water's going to shift things.

If there's actual honest-to-goodness flooding, even worse as there's the possibility of hydrostatic pressure pushing foundation walls off of footings.  Hurricane & flood-prone areas tend to have flood vents to prevent this, I doubt the older homes in the NY area have been retrofitted with such.

'Course that's all worst-case scenario stuff, but when that's what you're forced to plan for it's what you foresee happening.

You're definitely right about that kind of stuff. We aren't prepared for all of that and probably never will be. There has been some flooding preparation in the past but I don't think it's that high-grade. I'm hoping it doesn't come to that though. Last hurricane I really sat through was when Lenny decided to park over St. Maarten for three days back in '99. That was some scary shit. Listening to the radio, hearing about roofs ripped off and hearing at least one tornado as it spun off the eyewall while hiding under a sink. Thought I was pretty much done for. Weirdly enough, my rental car came out unscathed, while the one right next to it had all the windows blown out.

[01101010]

Most of the taller buildings in midtown and lower Manhattan were built to withstand some serious wind. That shouldn't be much of an issue. The outlying boroughs like Brooklyn and Queens stand to get seriously flooded if there's major storm surge. There could also be some serious flooding in the subways which will gum up public transportation, but barring tornadoes, we should come out beat up a little but not devastated.

It's not the wind so much as what the wind is carrying.

[WayAbvPar]

Ideally it will utterly destroy any and all on Wall Street. 

[Chimpy]

Ideally it will utterly destroy any and all on Wall Street. 

Cept Surlyboi, because we hope to have him take over and redistribute some of that wealth to us, his "friends", right?

[01101010]

Ideally it will utterly destroy any and all on Wall Street. 

Cept Surlyboi, because we hope to have him take over and redistribute some of that wealth to us, his "friends", right?

It's that kinda thinking that got us into this fucking mess in the first place.... 

[Surlyboi]

Considering I haven't been on Wall Street in almost eight years, let the fucker fly.

[Mrbloodworth]

Hay now, its gotta go over me to get there!