Nadal

[WoopeeTuralyon]

Damn. This dude is going to break Federer's slam record before Fed even retires! Already at 9 with his US Open victory a few minutes ago to complete his career Grand Slam, he's won the last 3 majors and has looked utterly unstoppable. He lost no sets in the French, 1 in the US Open. How many will he win? Can anybody actually beat him at the top of his game?

[Muffled]

Del Potro and a few other giant hitters can sometimes hang with him by hitting a million and one winners, but it's iffy.  The only problem for him, I think, is that he depends so much on his insane conditioning and speed.  As soon as he loses even half a step, or if the injuries start piling up, he's going to have a very hard time.

He might be able to stay healthy long enough, and play consistently enough to pass Fed, but I doubt it.

[Rasix]

You have to consider the possibility that Federer isn't done winning majors, although he's perhaps the third to fourth best player in the game right now talent wise.  He just tends to hold up better mentally and physically than either Djokavic or Murray.  He still has probably the best serve in the game right now of a top player and as you could see in his match against Soderling (the guy no one wants to play), it can dominate.  As some of his physical tools decline, he'll start relying more on the serve.

But hey, last time people wrote off Fed here, he won three more titles. But, I don't see too many more in his future unless Nadal really falls apart, and he's still got to deal with the fact that there's a handful of guys that can beat him in a major final and aren't scared of him in the slightest.  Plus, there's motivation. He's a Dad. Tennis probably means a little less to him now.  One bad injury and I wouldn't be surprised to see him retire even though he's expressed a desire to play for many more years.

With Nadal, it will come down to health.  How long can his knees last?  At least this year he was able to handle his schedule a bit better and stay healthy through the end. But he has a very violent style of play that still relies a lot on his superior physicality. If he's at the top of his game, the only way to get past him is to hit through him.  There aren't many guys that can sustain that long enough to beat him and there's really only one surface at a major you can do that on.  And now he's learned to win there too.

If anyone can surpass Fed, it is Nadal.  He could win a non-seasonal grand slam.  He could run the table next year. Who knows? It's pretty much all up to him. It's rare to see such and overall talent and understated genius for the game combined with an almost Agassi like punishing style of play.  He kicks your ass and wears you down at the same time.  It's just brutal.  

I'm still cheering for Fed, and I'd like to see him bounce back from this year (in which he did win a major).  There's lots he can improve on, as his semi-final match against Djokavic was dreadful, and that even went to a fifth set.  

[WoopeeTuralyon]

The way Nadal plays puts huge strain on his body. He never gives up on any point. He did lighten his schedule a lot this year to make up for it though..

Soderling and Del Potro hit the ball so hard they can throw Nadal off and just blast it by him, but they have to be playing very well and they have to maintain that level long enough to win the match... not easy, considering the number of balls Nadal gets back in play. And Nadal constantly improves. His serve is huge compared to what it was even last year, and his volleys are much improved as well.

Federer doesn't seem to be what he once was. I don't think he believes in his inherent superiority the way he used to. In the clutch moments, that little shred of doubt can and does cost him, as it did in his semifinal loss to Djokovic. Watching him play the US Open final against Agassi a few years ago and then watching him lose to Djokovic like he did... it's clear that he's not the same. He would pull miraculous shots out of his ass when he needed them. Now, he's more likely to mis-hit a forehand on a routine ball.


We'll see if he can bounce back, but right now he's surely going slowly downhill.