NFL Season Prediction Challenge!

[HaemishM]

So let's throw down our pre-season picks for the NFL Season by division, conference and then a Super Bowl winner. Pick the divisions (including how each team finishes), then pick a conference champion and finally a Super Bowl champ. At the end of the season, we'll compare the predictions to reality for shits and giggles.

Like so:

AFC East
Jets
Pats
Dolphins
Bills

Bills suck monkey nuts. Jets are not everything everybody thinks they are, but still good enough to win the division. Pats are aging and have issues at wideout but are still good enough to win with Brady and the system. Miami is not a playoff team yet.

AFC North
Baltimore
Cincinnati
Pittsburgh
Cleveland

Baltimore is the CLEAR favorite by a mile. Cincy is not as good as their record indicated last year and T.O. won't help that, but they'll still be better than a Pittsburgh team missing the rapist for almost 1/2 the season. Cleveland is a fucking mess it'll take Holmgren at least 2 seasons to unravel.

AFC South
Indianapolis
Houston
Tennessee
Jacksonville

No reason to pick against Indy. Houston is on the right track, as is Tennessee, though I don't think VY is ready for the playoffs yet. Schaub is, however. Jacksonville has been heading the wrong way and I think this is the year Del Rio loses his job.

AFC West
San Diego
Denver
Oakland
Kansas City

This entire division only regressed, IMO. San Diego is the clear favorite even without LT and Vincent Jackson. Denver lost Brandon Marshall and will be good enough for 8-8 but not the playoffs. Oakland will be better with Campbell at QB but they still suck. Kansas City might be better as well, but I see no reason for real optimism there either.

NFC East
Dallas
New York Giants
Philadelphia
Washington

This may be the toughest division in football besides the AFC South. Dallas clearly has the talent and depth. New York will be better. Philly will take a step back because of Kevin Kolb, and Washington will be better but not enough to get out of last place.

NFC North
Green Bay
Minnesota
Detroit
Chicago

This is really a tossup. I only put my Packers on top because I'm not sure the Vikings can repeat the performances of last year - specifically, I don't think Brett will have so few INT's, especially without Rice for at least 6 games. Plus, the Packers are in their second year of the 3-4 defense and should hopefully improve an already good defense. Detroit will be better and Chicago will be worse. They will look like the Lions did under Martz's offense. They can score a shitload, but Cutler will get hammered by a shitty O line and a scheme that doesn't pass protect for shit, and their defense will not be good enough to keep them in games. I expect Smith to get fired at the end of the year.

NFC South
New Orleans
Atlanta
Carolina
Tampa Bay

Hard not to pick the Saints. Atlanta will be better but still miss the playoffs to the Giants. Carolina is so iffy with their QB situation and Tampa is in year 2 of a rebuilding phase with a second year QB. Saints may not win 14 games again, but they won't lose more than 4.

NFC West
San Fran
Arizona
Seattle
St. Louis

Might as well call this the goddamn coin toss division. What a fucking mess. San Fran will win on defense and the running game. Arizona is a fucking mess. If their running game isn't improved, Anderson's deficiencies will KILL them, especially without Boldin. Breaston will have a good year, but he's no Boldin. Seattle is probably heading back on the upswing, but there's not enough proven young talent or durable old talent to pick them. St. Louis is rebuilding with a rookie QB behind a questionable line. I expect this is the last productive year Stephen Jackson will get.

AFC Playoff Teams
Jets
Ravens
Indy
San Diego
Pats (WC)
Houston (WC)

NFC Playoff Teams
Dallas
Green Bay
New Orleans
San Fran
New York Giants (WC)
Minnesota (WC)

Super Bowl Matchup
Ravens vs. New Orleans

Super Bowl Winner
New Orleans

Totally unsure about that pick, but I don't see anybody else in the NFC beating the Saints, nor do I see the Ravens D able to stop Drew Brees in the Super Bowl. Green Bay and Indy could surprise me though.

Pick away!

[Paelos]

AFC: Miami, Cincy, Indy, Houston, San Diego, New England
NFC: Dallas, Green Bay, New Orleans, San Fran, Philly, Atlanta

Super Bowl: Dallas v. Houston (ALL TEXAS!)

Winner: Dallas

[Cyrrex]

Do we really have to pick the division finishing order Haemish?  That's a bit of work to go through.

In the meantime:

AFC: Jets, Baltimore, San Diego, Indy, Cinci, New England
NFC: Dallas, San Fran, Green Bay, New Orleans, Minnesota, Atlanta

Super Bowl:  Green Bay vs Baltimore

Winner: Green Bay


Paelos....Houston?  Really?

[HaemishM]

Do we really have to pick the division finishing order Haemish?  That's a bit of work to go through.

Nah, I just felt like writing them down. It's not like there's a prize or anything.

[ghost]

AFC East
Pats
Dolphins
Jets
Bills

AFC North
Baltimore
Cincinnati
Pittsburgh
Cleveland

AFC South
Indianapolis
Tennessee
Houston
Jacksonville


AFC West
San Diego
Denver
Oakland
Kansas City

NFC East
Dallas
New York Giants
Philadelphia
Washington

NFC North
Minnesota
Green Bay
Chicago
Detroit

NFC South
New Orleans
Carolina
Atlanta
Tampa Bay


NFC West
Seattle
Arizona
San Fran
St. Louis


AFC Playoff Teams
New England
Ravens
Indy
San Diego
Dolphins (WC)
Cincinnati (WC)

NFC Playoff Teams
Dallas
Minnesota
New Orleans
Seattle
New York Giants (WC)
Green Bay(WC)

Super Bowl Matchup
Ravens vs. Dallas

Super Bowl Winner
Ravens

[01101010]

 

AFC: NY Jets, Baltimore, Indy, San Diego, Tennessee, New England
NFC: Philadelphia, Green Bay, New Orleans, San Fran, NY Giants, Atlanta

Super Bowl: Atlanta vs Baltimore

Winner: Baltimore

 

[WayAbvPar]

I will get my picks in tomorrow when I have two monitors to work with (at home today) 

[Paelos]

Paelos....Houston?  Really?

The AFC is a shell of it's former self. You won't be chuckling when they beat Indy in week one! 

[Azuredream]

AFC: NY Jets, Baltimore, Indianapolis, San Diego, Pittsburgh, Houston
NFC: Dallas, Green Bay, New Orleans, San Francisco, NY Giants, Atlanta

Super Bowl: New Orleans vs Baltimore

Winner: Baltimore

[Segoris]

I'm with Haemish on every pick actually. The only thing I have to think about is if it will be Hou or Cin for that wildcard spot. Though, I think Cin has a tougher schedule and will have 1 less win than Hou

[Cyrrex]

The best way to solve such quandries is to determine which mascot, if forced into a cage fight, would kill the other.  And Texans are always packing, so there you go!

And that's why I always win my pick 'em league.

[Segoris]

The Texans have a bull, which is very deadly. This is still a tough choice since the bengals have, well, a bengal, that is ridden by Ochocino and T.O. (they are clowns so I'm counting them as a part of the mascot in this case). I think the bengal will use Ocho and TO as bait for the bull so the bengal can setup a suprise attack, but the bull will still be too tough for the bengal who will eventually lose.

I am now more confident in my choice of Houston after using Cyrrex's wise plan. Thank you Cyrrex!

[WayAbvPar]

OK, now I can look at the standings page and this page side by side-

AFC East
NY Jets
New England Patriots
Miami Dolphins
Buffalo Bills

AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals
Pittsburgh Steelers
Cleveland Browns

AFC South
Indianapolis Colts
Houston Texans
Tennessee Titans
Jacksonville Jaguars

AFC West
San Diego Chargers
Denver Broncos
Oakland Raiders
Kansas City Chiefs

Wildcards- Patriots, Texans Conference Champ- Baltimore

NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles
Washington Redskins

NFC North
Green Bay Packers
Detroit Lions
Minnesota Vikings
Chicago Bears

NFC South
New Orleans Saints
Atlanta Falcons
Carolina Panthers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFC West
San Francisco 49ers
Arizona Cardinals
Seattle Seahawks
St. Louis Rams

Wildcards- Giants, Falcons Conference champs- Green Bay

Super Bowl- Green Bay 27 Baltimore 23

[trotski]

AFC East
NY Jets
New England Patriots
Miami Dolphins
Buffalo Bills

AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals
Pittsburgh Steelers
Cleveland Browns

AFC South
Indianapolis Colts
Tennessee Titans
Houston Texans
Jacksonville Jaguars

AFC West
San Diego Chargers
Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs
Oakland Raiders

Wildcards- Patriots, Titans

Conference Champ - Jets

NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles
Washington Redskins

NFC North
Green Bay Packers
Chicago Bears
Minnesota Vikings
Detroit Lions

NFC South
New Orleans Saints
Atlanta Falcons
Carolina Panthers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFC West
San Francisco 49ers
Arizona Cardinals
Seattle Seahawks
St. Louis Rams

Wildcards- Giants, Falcons
Conference champs- Green Bay

Super Bowl Champs - Green Bay

[HaemishM]

Thought I'd look back over my predictions now that we know who is in the Super Bowl. I was completely wrong about my Super Bowl picks.

The biggest misses for me were the Steelers, the Bears and Houston. I expected the Steelers to fall apart with Rapistberger missing half the season, but their defense carried them. That's probably because they had Polamalu most of the season. Houston just absolutely refused to show up on defense most of the year. Cutler actually showed up for the Bears down the stretch - until he sprained his vag in the Championship game. What the hell was that? KC was a complete surprise, as was Tampa but neither went very far with their improvements. The whole goddamn NFC West was topsy-turvy but other than St. Louis, none of those teams can really claim to be an improvement over the year before or even as good as. I've hammered on Dallas and Minnesota enough. 

[Paelos]

A few things I noticed:

Everyone had the Pats and Indy, and pretty much everyone had the Saints and the Falcons.

Nobody gave any love to Pittsburgh, and very few people gave any playoff love to Green Bay

[K9]

and very few people gave any playoff love to Green Bay

Do you mean in other places, because everyone bar one picked Green Bay to win the NFC north in this thread.

I'd say Philadelphia was the undersung team of the year.

[01101010]

A few things I noticed:

Everyone had the Pats and Indy, and pretty much everyone had the Saints and the Falcons.

Nobody gave any love to Pittsburgh, and very few people gave any playoff love to Green Bay

I for one discounted the Steelers do simply to being without Big Ben for 1/4 of the season. San Diego shit the bed, but was still in a shit division that I didn't even look KC's way... hell I would have thought Denver might have challenged for it. Tenn... was done in by their own team turmoil.

NFC - Seattle won the doggy newspaper division under a first year (up there at least) coach and SF imploded at QB. NYG... had the Bears done as expected, NY might have been in it. Funny looking at how things played out.

[Paelos]

and very few people gave any playoff love to Green Bay

Do you mean in other places, because everyone bar one picked Green Bay to win the NFC north in this thread.

I'd say Philadelphia was the undersung team of the year.

I meant that most people took them out back and promptly shot them once they got into the first round, not that they wouldn't win the division.

[01101010]

I meant that most people took them out back and promptly shot them once they got into the first round, not that they wouldn't win the division.

Lack of a known running game made me bail on them.

[HaemishM]

Same here. The whole season, I rated Green Bay low on the pole because of how bad the running game was after Grant got hurt (and it wasn't that great with Grant). They ran the ball well in the playoffs. If they'd have shown that all season, I'd have been more inclined to take them farther. That and Atlanta really did seem like a better team.

[Paelos]

To be fair, there's no reason Green Bay should be in be in the Super Bowl. Their D is top 5, but not the best, and they have zero running threat.

Rodgers got hot as a pistol at the right time, and their D continued to be a frontrunner in QB pressure.

[HaemishM]

To be fair, there's no reason Green Bay should be in be in the Super Bowl. There D is top 5, but not the best, and they have HAD zero running threat.

Starks really has changed the entire complexion of that offense. Even against the Bears he was cutting some longer runs early in the game. It opened up a lot of play action possibilities for Rodgers.

[Paelos]

Starks is a rookie. He was also a non-factor in the second half of that Bears game, in a time where you would expect them to just run clock. I think he only had 16 yards that half. All his production was early when the Bears were reeling. He's also about to run into the absolute #1 defense against the run. Best in the regular season, best in the post season, the Steelers only give up ~60 yards on the ground a game.

Stark's not going to have a good super bowl. This will be about Rodgers dinking and dunking, and GB trying to pressure Big Ben. If either one of those doesn't happen for Green Bay, it's going to be a Steeler runaway.

[01101010]

I am soooo looking forward to Clay Matthews meeting Big Ben in the SB. <insert girly hair and Ben's discretion joke here>

[HaemishM]

Stark's not going to have a good super bowl. This will be about Rodgers dinking and dunking, and GB trying to pressure Big Ben. If either one of those doesn't happen for Green Bay, it's going to be a Steeler runaway.

I don't expect him to have a good Super Bowl. I expect him to at least make the defense think twice when he's in the backfield. That's more than they would do if Jackson was the running back instead of Starks.

[K9]

and very few people gave any playoff love to Green Bay

Do you mean in other places, because everyone bar one picked Green Bay to win the NFC north in this thread.

I'd say Philadelphia was the undersung team of the year.

I meant that most people took them out back and promptly shot them once they got into the first round, not that they wouldn't win the division.

Ah, fair enough then

[Cyrrex]

The best way to solve such quandries is to determine which mascot, if forced into a cage fight, would kill the other.  And Texans are always packing, so there you go!

And that's why I always win my pick 'em league.

Not that I want to be the douche that quotes himself, but I thought I'd point out that my mascot cage fight method worked for the second year running in the F13 pick 'em league.

AND....I picked the Packers to win the Super Bowl earlier in this same thread.  It's as good as an iron clad guarantee.

[HaemishM]

Well, Way, Cyrrex and Trotski all picked Green Bay to win the Super Bowl. Hope you laid some money down in August.