Minecraft - f13 Server is: chugging along... again (Read OP)

[Torinak]

Please please PLEASE tell me the reason this thread hasn't already exploded with this news is because it has already been debunked:

http://online.wsj.com/articles/microsoft-near-deal-to-buy-minecraft-1410300213

Microsoft possibly buying Minecraft for $2bn.

Lots of places carrying it but I think they all point back to this WSJ article.

If true yet more proof everyone's got a price. But man, we now get to see that timelines where a large publisher fucked up Minecraft by making it a platform exclusive with goddamned microtransactions and energy meters all over the place.

That would be a very strange (and pointless) purchase for Microsoft. Not like they don't have a track record of really bad uses of their cash.

For starters, Microsoft (internally) hates Java; they've tried to destroy it as a platform several times. If they buy Mojang, I'd expect they'd kill off every Minecraft version except for the XBox port (which is written in a mix of C++ and C#, apparently), or at a minimum they'd back-port the XBox version to the PC. That would completely kill the entire modding community in one blow, as every mod would have to be entirely re-written (assuming Microsoft wouldn't actively fight modding efforts).

Oh well, Minecraft had a darn good run--I've probably spent an order of magnitude more time on it than on any other game.

[Samwise]

At that point doesn't everyone just carry on using the current released version of Minecraft and modding it to their heart's content?

[Torinak]

At that point doesn't everyone just carry on using the current released version of Minecraft and modding it to their heart's content?

No, because Microsoft could turn off the authentication servers, and/or use legal means to shut down the modding community. Due to how the vast majority of Minecraft mods work, they're effectively derivative works of the Minecraft source code, to the point where Mojang claims certain rights over them.

[Venkman]

Exactly my fear. Minecraft is so much more than just some game. This aggravates me way more than when they killed Halo (and gimped Oni) on PC when they bought Bungie, because at least that was just normal games. Minecraft is so far outside their wheelhouse there's nothing they can do that won't fuck it up in some profound way.

Isn't Minecraft for Xbox and the Pocket Editions done by some 3rd party? Couldn't they just buy those up? The Xbox version is ok, but losing that would let Microsoft get the cache to peddle their platform, and it would be hard for them to screw that up. While leaving the PC one alone.

Coincidentally, in our fifth year with my family world we've continually expanded, I've been wondering what would happen first: my kids outgrow it, or they do something stupid.

[Hutch]

Have you got boys? Is TNT enabled?

[Yoru]

At that point doesn't everyone just carry on using the current released version of Minecraft and modding it to their heart's content?

No, because Microsoft could turn off the authentication servers, and/or use legal means to shut down the modding community. Due to how the vast majority of Minecraft mods work, they're effectively derivative works of the Minecraft source code, to the point where Mojang claims certain rights over them.

Actually, as of Forge 1.7, this is no longer strictly true. Mods no longer distribute any Mojang code, in source or compiled form; this was originally done to be EULA-compliant. That said, I think they'd still be covered under the "reverse engineering" clause of the DMCA and Microsoft could suppress the modding community if they wanted to.

Fucking DMCA.

Edit: Oh, and certain older versions of Forge bypassed Mojang's auth servers entirely, and they still do in dev environments. It's completely possible to do, although I'd not want to risk the wrath of Microsoft-funded lawyers to do it.

[amiable]

Over under on how long it takes MS to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs?

[Ironwood]

It's a big goose.  Will take MS quite some time to kill it.

[Cyrrex]

There should be a rule that you (specifically) cannot change your avatar, Zod

Not only would Microsoft effectively kill this game, but they are just too late to the goddamn party.  People have already played this game into the ground, it is hard to imagine you will get them to pony up for mods and items and stuff.

Not to mention all the mods that exist for proprietary stuff that Microsoft would have to utterly nuke.

[Xanthippe]

There should be a rule that you (specifically) cannot change your avatar, Zod

Yes. That threw me.

I will be very sad if this sale goes through. Modded Minecraft is my favorite game hands down.

[Venkman]

Right. And that's the part I imagine MS beancounters care the least about. None of that is money back to Mojang. Far as I know they only make one time sales and those stupid little MTX packs on Xbox. Anyone ever buy any of that nonsense?

I swear, MC on the Xbox is exactly what MS would want to do to the PC.

And doing would effectively create the opportunity for some new luminary to come along and open source a labor of love that everyone flocks too.

So, I can't see how they make back anywhere close to $2bn ever, even in the fuzzy area of intangibles, and can't see how they won't screw up the brand by nuking the core experience.

It's a monkey's paw. The only way they win is by pouring billions into a whole, maybe cleaning up the profile/login/signin process, but otherwise leave it alone and hope the current budding parents introduce it to the next generation of kids.

[Ingmar]

Mojang made around $115 million dollars of profit last year. Not revenues, profit. And I believe that's grown every year; Minecraft is actually turning into a pretty huge brand for merchandise and other licensed stuff. You also have to account for the fact that some of that purchase price goes towards aquiring fixed assets, etc., that do have value in and of themselves. The ROI on this looks a lot better than most M&As you see in gaming it seems to me.

[Venkman]

Hmm, so that's from:

27mm PC copies sold lifetime- what's lifetime average price? $25?- $450mm
10mm Pocket Edition ($7)- call it 12mm since this was reported in Feb.- $84mm
10mm Xbox 360 versions ($20)- also a Feb number but no idea how much now. Leaving it at 10mm.- $200mm
1mm PS3 versions (I assume $20)- $2mm

$754mm with $115 profit. Evem though I'm using some 2014 numbers, 15% profit isn't anything to sneeze at. And nice recent upside on the consoles.

But those are also gimped versions with the mobile one being even worse. I think my whole problem with this is how Microsoft sucks at caring consistently about PC gaming, and the Minecraft movement is still largely PC lead. There's really only ways they could screw this up unless they get Mojang lock stock and barrel, sign on the staff for two years, and bring in some people who understand UX a bit better. Nothing wrong in the game itself, but the shit that surrounds it kinda sucks unless you're a hacker type.

That can be solved. Heck I even believe with the right motivation Microsoft would be able to. But the reason they'll be motivated to solve it is to charge for mods and mod packs.

And I bet they STILL won't make the Pocket Edition, Console edition and PC version all talk to each other. 

I haven't had this much gamer rage since PS1 got a full price subscription fee 

[Hawkbit]

My 9yr old daughter rarely watches Netflix and never watches normal TV.  However, she watches at least an hour of Youtube Minecraft videos PER DAY, while she plays Minecraft and makes Minecraft videos to upload on Youtube.

The buy is exactly about having MC as a brand so they can shift those external services to their platforms.  MS will likely make the transition poorly, destroying exactly what people find enjoyable about MC. 

[Ingmar]

Hmm, so that's from:

27mm PC copies sold lifetime- what's lifetime average price? $25?- $450mm
10mm Pocket Edition ($7)- call it 12mm since this was reported in Feb.- $84mm
10mm Xbox 360 versions ($20)- also a Feb number but no idea how much now. Leaving it at 10mm.- $200mm
1mm PS3 versions (I assume $20)- $2mm

$754mm with $115 profit. Evem though I'm using some 2014 numbers, 15% profit isn't anything to sneeze at. And nice recent upside on the consoles.

But those are also gimped versions with the mobile one being even worse. I think my whole problem with this is how Microsoft sucks at caring consistently about PC gaming, and the Minecraft movement is still largely PC lead. There's really only ways they could screw this up unless they get Mojang lock stock and barrel, sign on the staff for two years, and bring in some people who understand UX a bit better. Nothing wrong in the game itself, but the shit that surrounds it kinda sucks unless you're a hacker type.

That can be solved. Heck I even believe with the right motivation Microsoft would be able to. But the reason they'll be motivated to solve it is to charge for mods and mod packs.

And I bet they STILL won't make the Pocket Edition, Console edition and PC version all talk to each other.  

I haven't had this much gamer rage since PS1 got a full price subscription fee  

No, that profit number isn't lifetime, it's just 2013. You're missing all kinds of miscellaneous revenue from shit like toys and books etc.

Their gross revenue last year was 300 something million.

[Cyrrex]

Mojang makes BANK off all those mods.  Yes, I know, blah blah blah FACTS and stuff....the mods are what keep the base game and the brand relevant.  In our house, we have 3 PC accounts of minecraft, one xbox version and two iPad versions.  Minecraft server.  We have minecraft posters.  Minecraft foam rubber sword and pickaxe.  Minecraft lego thingy.  Minecraft figurine or two.  THOUSANDS of hours of minecraft videos consumed.  Every time I think they're done with it, one of the boys picks it up again.

None of that would be the case if it were just Minecraft vanilla.  We would have lost interest years ago and it would have stayed buried.

MS will be forced to kill many of those mods due to copyright infringement and other legal issues, and the rest they will kill themselves and attempt to remake in their own brand image, and charge 10 dollars per mod.  And make it xbox exclusive, naturally.  Say hello to Minecraft Halo, Minecraft Forza and Minecraft Dead Rising and other bullshit.  It will destroy all the reasons people had for wanting to play it in the first place.

Yes, there will still be some kids who want to play it.  But there will also be dads like me who tell them "hell no, we used to get better stuff than that for free, no way am I paying for that".  There is no path back to 2 billion dollars.

[Jeff Kelly]

Which is why Notch's cashout makes sense in a way.

[Cyrrex]

And really, if it is 2 billion, who can blame him?  I'd sell it if I were him, too.  If he's feeling any deep guilt at his own hypocrisy, I'm sure he can dry those tears with the giant piles of Benjamins he'll be rolling in.

[Jeff Kelly]

Unfortunately it will end up like most major acquisitions by Microsoft (and Google for that matter).

1. Microsoft execs don't really get why thing X is becoming popular/successful.
2. Microsoft execs dismiss it as being 'niche', 'not what the mainstream customer wants', 'overpriced' and 'going nowhere'.
3. Microsoft pushes forward with an entirely different strategy and spends huge amounts of money on it which goes nowhere
4. Company that is not Microsoft keeps raking in insane amounts of dough because of 1 and 2
5. Microsoft tries to copy it, fails because of 1,2 and 3
6. Microsoft acquires it, doesn't really know why it needs to acquire it except money.
7. Microsoft doesn't really know what to with it once bought (because 1,2 and 3)
8. Acquisition dies slowly from management apathy, management infighting, the meddling of twenty-three different business units, a management hierarchy more obfuscated and larger than the Saudi ruling family and a legion of MBAs market-segmenting and nickle-and-diming the shit out of it
9. Acquisition dies or is sold off again
10. Repeat at 1.

[Fabricated]

They'll also rename it 20 times.

[Merusk]

And really, if it is 2 billion, who can blame him?  I'd sell it if I were him, too.  If he's feeling any deep guilt at his own hypocrisy, I'm sure he can dry those tears with the giant piles of Benjamins he'll be rolling in.

You'd be a fool, no matter how much to loved your little project, to not cash out for 2bn.  That's 6 years of 300 million, and as we know 6 years is an eternity in software and tech relevance.

That's paying 100 of your employees a $200,000 a year bonus for 10 years for fuckall, if Mojang is even that big.

It's a windfall of epic proportions. Those giving Notch any sort of shit are either jealous or fools.

[tazelbain]

They'll also rename it 20 times.

It's much more likely that they will gut whole thing and replace it with generic game #3456785434 with the brand slapped on it.

[Hawkbit]

MicroSoft World Builder 2015

[Ironwood]

Such a shame they just released Microsoft Delve.   

[Yegolev]

Far as I know they only make one time sales and those stupid little MTX packs on Xbox. Anyone ever buy any of that nonsense?

Skin and texture purchases are big among people who are willing to give their kid a dollar to go away.

[Xanthippe]

It's a windfall of epic proportions. Those giving Notch any sort of shit are either jealous or fools.

Or they somehow thought that he had principles that would not allow him to sell out to Microsoft in this way.

Or they are sad because they think that they will not be able to enjoy minecraft any longer the way they have been.

After reading some of Notch's rants, I could understand either of those positions, but being as how I wasn't born yesterday, I also understand how useless it is to try to hold people to a standard they raised before being offered $2b for their product.

There are a great many people using minecraft in a lot of different ways who will likely have to find new hobbies now.

[Ingmar]

I don't see a lot of reason to believe that Microsoft will kill mods outright. I would be more worried about them killing the Sony console version.

Also, I believe it isn't 100% clear that the deal will actually be for 2 billion dollars. It may be that the deal values Mojang at 2 billion, and Microsoft is just acquiring a controlling interest which would be more like a bit over 1 billion dollars.

[Quinton]

Even if this deal happens, and Microsoft decides to "shut down" Minecraft, I doubt it'd happen overnight.

And even if it did, people still own their existing copies.

And even if they shut down the auth server denying all existing customers the ability to run their existing copies (and didn't reconsider after the outrage that would cause -- something that would likely be highly damaging to the brand that they're buying), a patch to run without hitting the auth server is a trivial thing (java being very easy to decompile and patch -- witness how modding has worked for most of Minecraft's history).

And even if that happened, technically Minecraft is not something terribly hard to reproduce from a technical standpoint -- a decent small team could build something similar pretty quickly.  Microsoft killing Minecraft would almost guarantee a number of competing clones or minecraft-a-likes popping up to compete for the displaced audience.

So I wouldn't worry too much -- I think it's unlikely people are going to be denied access to voxel sandbox fun, one way or another.

[Torinak]

And really, if it is 2 billion, who can blame him?  I'd sell it if I were him, too.  If he's feeling any deep guilt at his own hypocrisy, I'm sure he can dry those tears with the giant piles of Benjamins he'll be rolling in.

You'd be a fool, no matter how much to loved your little project, to not cash out for 2bn.  That's 6 years of 300 million, and as we know 6 years is an eternity in software and tech relevance.

That's paying 100 of your employees a $200,000 a year bonus for 10 years for fuckall, if Mojang is even that big.

It's a windfall of epic proportions. Those giving Notch any sort of shit are either jealous or fools.

Life doesn't have to be about amassing as much money as possible.  There can be such a thing as "enough", and I wouldn't be surprised if Notch feels he hit that for himself some time ago.

[Malakili]

Life doesn't have to be about amassing as much money as possible.  There can be such a thing as "enough", and I wouldn't be surprised if Notch feels he hit that for himself some time ago.

I mean this is a fair point but is it really relevant?  Is there some deeper principle here that he would be fighting for by keeping it? He has enough, but he might also think "Hey, I could sell this off, be financially secure forever, and then just do whatever I want for the rest of my life."  I guess that presumes one of the things he wants to do with the rest of his life is not "run Mojang forever" but still...

[Samwise]

Notch's big public hissy fit over Oculus selling out is the thing that makes this funny.  If not for that I don't think anyone could fault him at all for taking his $2B and buying a small country with it.

Really, I still can't fault him for taking the money.  I just hope he has enough self awareness to be embarrassed about it.   

[Merusk]

And really, if it is 2 billion, who can blame him?  I'd sell it if I were him, too.  If he's feeling any deep guilt at his own hypocrisy, I'm sure he can dry those tears with the giant piles of Benjamins he'll be rolling in.

You'd be a fool, no matter how much to loved your little project, to not cash out for 2bn.  That's 6 years of 300 million, and as we know 6 years is an eternity in software and tech relevance.

That's paying 100 of your employees a $200,000 a year bonus for 10 years for fuckall, if Mojang is even that big.

It's a windfall of epic proportions. Those giving Notch any sort of shit are either jealous or fools.

Life doesn't have to be about amassing as much money as possible.  There can be such a thing as "enough", and I wouldn't be surprised if Notch feels he hit that for himself some time ago.

Perhaps it's not about himself, but others he'd like to care about.  As in the example I gave.  6 years of security to do jack squat as a 300mil company is ALSO nothing to sneeze at.

Principles have as little place in a business decision as what color eyes the buyer has.

Notch's big public hissy fit over Oculus selling out is the thing that makes this funny.  If not for that I don't think anyone could fault him at all for taking his $2B and buying a small country with it.

Really, I still can't fault him for taking the money.  I just hope he has enough self awareness to be embarrassed about it.   

Possibly. But it's one thing to rant and rail about something when it doesn't affect you and quite another when the offer's there, sitting in front of you.  Everyone has a price for their integrity, few of us will ever get offered enough to learn just what that price is.

[Pennilenko]

2 billion dollars is enough money for me to gift wrap my ideals and values just before I hand them over to who ever is about to pay me 2 billion.

[Paelos]

2 billion dollars is enough money for me to gift wrap my ideals and values just before I hand them over to who ever is about to pay me 2 billion.

There's no startup business I wouldn't sell for $2B. That's an insane amount of money.

[Samwise]

Whatever ideals and values you had to sacrifice, I'm pretty sure $2B could buy you some better ones.