Blizzard under-estimates...

[Kageru]

The Blizzard dev's did a midnight signing for the launch of WoW (which is now live) at Fry's electronics. At last count more than 5 thousand people turned up to buy copies. Which slightly exceeded Blizzards stock on hand (2K copies) and time available (1 hour).

It would be quite amusing to go back and look at some of the sales estimates made on this board, not to mention the difference in response between the EQ2 and WoW launches. While obviously popularity is not directly related to quality it looks like WoW will post some fairly eye-catching new numbers. It almost certainly marks the end of EQ1 as America's most popular MMORPG, with SOE not even bothering to compete (I thought they'd announce an expansion... or something).

(These numbers are taken from various threads, so no guarantee's as to absolute, or even approximate, accuracy).

[Soukyan]

The Blizzard dev's did a midnight signing for the launch of WoW (which is now live) at Fry's electronics. At last count more than 5 thousand people turned up to buy copies. Which slightly exceeded Blizzards stock on hand (2K copies) and time available (1 hour).

It would be quite amusing to go back and look at some of the sales estimates made on this board, not to mention the difference in response between the EQ2 and WoW launches. While obviously popularity is not directly related to quality it looks like WoW will post some fairly eye-catching new numbers. It almost certainly marks the end of EQ1 as America's most popular MMORPG, with SOE not even bothering to compete (I thought they'd announce an expansion... or something).

(These numbers are taken from various threads, so no guarantee's as to absolute, or even approximate, accuracy).

When they top 400,000 subscribers and maintain that number, let us know. As of right now, the statement is assumptive. But that's great that they had such a good turnout at Fry's.

[schild]

But that's great that they had such a good turnout at Fry's.

Yes, it truly is important to send the message out to the industry that Innovation doesn't sell games. Meh.

[Soukyan]

But that's great that they had such a good turnout at Fry's.

Yes, it truly is important to send the message out to the industry that Innovation doesn't sell games. Meh.

I was thinking more along the lines of good for business at Fry's. The game industry has more problems than just lack of innovation.

[Signe]

People in California will turn up for anything.  They are mostly stoned.

[El Gallo]

You can have your innovation.  That HAM system sure was an innovative idea, and wasn't that a great mechanic.  It's about time the industry grew up out of its juvenile "dev as brilliant, misunderstood artiste" and into, you know, an actual industry with a focus on incrementally improving products that consumers actually want.

There is a place for innovation: R&D teams, college kids, specialty markets.  Once in a great while, one of those innovations will actually be worthwhile and then bought/stolen by the real development houses and incorporated into real games.  The place for innovation is not a multimillion-dollar game designed to be the industry flagship.  Rolling the evolutionary dice with World of Warcraft would be about as smart as rolling the evolutionary dice with Star Wars Galaxies.  Whoopsie.

You want R&D money flowing into this genre?  When EQ2 and WoW combine for a million+ subscribers paying $15 a month, you might see it because this genre won't be quite as much of a pathetic sideshow in the US gaming world as it is right now.

[Sky]

It almost certainly marks the end of EQ1 as America's most popular MMORPG, with SOE not even bothering to compete (I thought they'd announce an expansion... or something).

Yeah, it's not like they released an entire sequel or anything...dumbass SOE, resting on their laurels!

[Venkman]

There's innovation and then there's just doing a good job.

Blizzard did a good job. That's it. Not only that, they have a broad appeal to non-MMOGers who perpetuate games with built-in PvP (almost half of the launch servers are PvP), and which is what's keeping those games alive. Innovation matters most when it's actually featured successfully. And it's fun.

A few people around here have predicted 400k+ accounts. Given that box sales are always in excess of subscriptions, Blizzard will pay off their development budget by Friday. And then some. As a company, that makes them successful. They didn't blow their wad on questionably-relevant technology that nobody can experience.

Planning for the future can not include forgetting the present.

[Kageru]

It almost certainly marks the end of EQ1 as America's most popular MMORPG, with SOE not even bothering to compete (I thought they'd announce an expansion... or something).

Yeah, it's not like they released an entire sequel or anything...dumbass SOE, resting on their laurels!

EQ2 is not actually intended as a sequel to EQ1, according to SOE's logic. Nor do I think it's likely to hit 400K accounts itself. EQ1 remains their cash-cow and they are letting it wither without any mitigation on their part, that's just not smart. Of course SOE is in the rather difficult position of having two games it would like to advertise as the best MMORPG.

My main interest in the event was that, even if WoW is all over next week, it marks another level of growth in the MMORPG market.

[Ardent]

People in California will turn up for anything.  They are mostly stoned.

Except ... this is Orange County, by far the reddest county in the state. This is the land of BMWs, acres of perfect houses and three of the safest large cities in the United States. Stoners can't afford to live here.

Also, I would say that creating a game that's actually fun to play is pretty damn innovative, and Blizzard did it.

[Liquidator]

People in California will turn up for anything.  They are mostly stoned.

I take offense to that!

[Shockeye]

People in California will turn up for anything.  They are mostly stoned.

I take offense to that!

Be offended all you want, but you're still probably stoned.

[HaemishM]

I will reiterate my statement that WoW will garner about 200k subscriptions when people actually have to pay for subscriptions. I may well be wrong; more wouldn't surprise me.

[AcidCat]

Stoners can't afford to live here.

The successful, well-to-do stoner is far more prevalent than you may suspect.

[Dren]

I will reiterate my statement that WoW will garner about 200k subscriptions when people actually have to pay for subscriptions. I may well be wrong; more wouldn't surprise me.

My guess is 350k.  People already took the hard step of paying $49.99 (or more) to get the box and then subscribe by putting in their card info.  It is more difficult at the end of the 1 month trial period to quit than to just accept one month of $15.99 (or whatever) and get another month.  They won't quit unless really pissed off, which I only see WoW doing to 5-10%.  You won't want that 5-10% around anyway.

I then think it will grow to 600k at its peak within 6 months.  Further peaks may occur when they release into other continents.

I have no secret sources.  Those are my own estimates.

[Rasix]

Apparently queues are in the final now too.

Why must every game have a new and inventive fuckup at launch?

[Fargull]

If they can make the pvp fun and sexy the subscriptions will stay heavy.  I do not have a guess at numbers, but right now I would say they are either preparing more servers or ready to order more.  Sounds like launch is going primo though.. which is scary, and has been pointed out that fight night has not started yet.

[HaemishM]

Le sigh... I thought it'd be a good idea to install from the CD's. I went ahead and created my account on the web, and installed from the CD.

Just use the fucking beta client. You won't have to patch using Blizzard's AssTorrent client, the install from the CD's takes JUST AS FUCKING LONG as it did in open beta, and you only need your CD-Key to create an account.

[Nebu]

I then think it will grow to 600k at its peak within 6 months.  Further peaks may occur when they release into other continents.

I have no secret sources.  Those are my own estimates.

Ok, my chance to look like an idiot.  

I don't think WoW will be able to attain those numbers.  At the very best, WoW will hit 400k within the first 3 months and decline slowly after that.  Why?

1) WoW customers will consume content much faster than Blizzard imagined.  Blizzard will not be able to keep up with content demands.

2) Hacks and cheats will be rampant.  Blizzard's early reaction to these will set the tone.  I hope they choose wisely.

3) Part of WoW's early success will come from attracting people new to the genre.  When many of these hit level 25+, they will realize that the treadmill and raiding >> them and leave.  

4) Mom not wanting to pay sub fees when junior's grades slip.

5) The soloability of the game will limit retention due to the lack of  social networks.

6) Lack of viable PvP vs. PvE balance will disappoint many.  PvP becomes all about uber raid loot (ToA anyone?) more than player ability.  Idealized group format + item-based characters + lack of PvP incentive further restricts interest.

WoW will be a very successful mmog.  It appeals to many with it's soloability, ease of gameplay, low system requirements, solid core, and brand recognition.  The one thing that WoW lacks is staying power.  I felt that CoH also lacked this, but their devs have really been pounding out the content since release... Blizzard will not be so diligent.  

I give WoW a peak just below 400k subscriptions that will maintain for about 2-3 months followed by a gradual decline. That is unless they address the points above well.

[Trippy]

In another sign that Blizzard/VU Games underestimated demand, EBGames.com sent me a CE copy instead of the regular edition I ordered. Assuming that wasn't just a packing mistake it would appear that EBGames.com has temporarily run out of the regular edition, though oddly enough on their Web site they still show the regular edition as available but the CE is no longer listed at all so I'm not quite sure what's going on over there.

[Viin]

Bonus!

[Sky]

Stoners can't afford to live here.

Stoners who live in their parent's basements can!

EQ1 remains their cash-cow and they are letting it wither without any mitigation on their part, that's just not smart.

Yep, they didn't release an expansion two months ago.

The successful, well-to-do stoner is far more prevalent than you may suspect.

Indeed. Too bad it's still illegal because marijuana will eat your children and fart dead kittens.

[El Gallo]

Any reports on how many Korean servers they have up?  Also keep in mind that only the most fervent Europeans are playing, and they supposedly have ~300k apps for their euro beta.  I agree with the staying power problems, but I would not be shocked if WoW hits a million subs at some point between its Asian, NA, and European servers.

[Romp]

there are already at last count 53 servers up which I think is more than EQ so that suggests that WoW already has more subscribers than EQ, on the NA servers alone after 1 day.  And a lot of those servers are completely overloaded

[Signe]

When I started playing there were 41 servers up, I think.  When I quit, there were 47 or 48.   Some reported they had quees of 1700 and waits of as much as 3 hours.  When I tried to log into the server my initial character was on (the Morphiend server), I was 640 in the queue and 45 minutes... I didn't bother.  I probably won't play in the evenings and if it's like this during the day, I probably won't play at all until they sort it out.

[Soukyan]

I'm thinking they're planning on some tapering off of subscriptions at some point in the next few months. I'd hate to be stuck on a server that's dead because of all the cancelled accounts though. Hell, I left DAoC because I had the misfortune of ending up on one of the most underpopulated servers. But a 3 hour wait time? Ouch.

[Mesozoic]

Remember that the max allowed server populations are lower than they will be later.  They were lowered because the server pops are all clustered around the starter areas, and as they spread out they will be able to take more.  So just because a server is "full" doesn't mean that there are 2,000+ people on it.  It might be 500 for all we know.

[HaemishM]

Which is completely retarded. Had they considered instancing the newbie starting areas, much like CoH did, instead of placing them in the world, they'd have been much better off. But I guess by the time they really realized what a cluster fuck the newbie areas would be, it was too late to do that.

[schild]

They should have realized it on the first day of open beta. I mean shit, EQ2 instanced the newbie zones from day 1. It'll be a cold day in hell before Blizzard learns anything. At the moment I'm pretty sure all the designers are partying. When they should be getting logic enemas given to them by midgets with turkey basters.

[Pineapple]

When I started playing there were 41 servers up, I think.  When I quit, there were 47 or 48.   Some reported they had quees of 1700 and waits of as much as 3 hours.  When I tried to log into the server my initial character was on (the Morphiend server), I was 640 in the queue and 45 minutes... I didn't bother.  I probably won't play in the evenings and if it's like this during the day, I probably won't play at all until they sort it out.

I logged completely out (fully exited client), and went back in several times last night during peak hours. I tried two different servers, both medium load level, one Central and one Eastern, and again during peak hours.

I had not one single second of que delay logging in, at all.

The problem is most of the PVP guilds all decided to go onto the same 2 servers. I dont think there is anything Blizzard could do that would be satisfactory to these guys. When everyone decides to be on the same server, it's a problem waiting to happen.

[Mesozoic]

They should have realized it on the first day of open beta. I mean shit, EQ2 instanced the newbie zones from day 1. It'll be a cold day in hell before Blizzard learns anything. At the moment I'm pretty sure all the designers are partying. When they should be getting logic enemas given to them by midgets with turkey basters.

I have trouble working up a good lather of hate over this, because in essence they are the victims of total victory.  They go with 41 servers on launch day, then add more, and still get slammed.  Would instanced newbie areas have helped?  Yeah.  Should they have done that?  Yeah.  Will it matter in a month?  No.

Even after 6+ months of beta with no NDA - plenty of time for people to decide that a game sucks and they don't want it and to tell all their friends not to get it - the players are showing up in legions.  That suggests pretty strongly that underneath release-day woes lies a game worth playing.  Its one thing to make your customers wait in line to get into the party.  Thats not the same kind of failure as throwing a party that no one shows up for because your party sucks.

No matter how pissed somebody gets at not being able to get in, the fact that they even care pre-supposes that they really like the game.

[ajax34i]

Their network/support team certainly seems to be able to add large numbers of servers within less than 24 hrs, which is a feat in my book considering how long it usually takes to get the hardware delivered and install the software...  NCSoft took a week to add 4 extra servers when they had the same problems with crowding during Lineage 2's release.

[MrHat]

Their network/support team certainly seems to be able to add large numbers of servers within less than 24 hrs, which is a feat in my book considering how long it usually takes to get the hardware delivered and install the software...  NCSoft took a week to add 4 extra servers when they had the same problems with crowding during Lineage 2's release.

They purposely didn't start w/ all their servers online so that they could 'gradually' open up new servers.

Why? I have no idea.

[Jealous Deva]

They probably didn't know how much the popularity would be divided between pvp and normal servers.  With conventional wisdom in the genre being what it is, you don't want to open too many pvps because popularity will probably drop more quickly than blue ones and the blue ones will probably start smaller but be more popular in the long run.  So it makes sense to hold some in reserve to appropriately react to popularity trends.

[ajax34i]

I think they should have called the normal servers "Consentual PvP" and the PvP servers "Unrestricted PvP."  As they are right now, a lot of players are liable to migrate from the PvP to the PvE once they figure out that they CAN pvp there, and without the grief0rz.

They seem to have added 26 extra servers since yesterday; that's a 63% increase in hardware.  I think that if they had it all on standby ready to go, they would have added it sooner, within a few hours of the playerbase going critical.  It took them a while, so to me it feels more like they ordered them and set them up.   Downtime is not acceptable in this industry, and I appreciate that they took the time and expense to set up a mission-critical solution that I'm pretty sure includes a serious contract with HP involving guaranteed-within-x-hours delivery of their specced hardware and/or replacement parts.