EA Mythic: $1 Billion Not Needed to Compete with WoW

[Mrbloodworth]

Warhammer Online lead designer estimates the real amount to be around $100 million.

Earlier this year, Activision Blizzard CEO Bobby Kotick said investing $500 million to a billion in a product wouldn't be enough to compete in the same space as World of Warcraft. Naturally, Mythic VP and Warhammer Online lead designer Mark Jacobs disagrees. Speaking to MTV, he claims Kotick set the bar so high to scare off competition and make themselves seem invincible. So how much does it really take to compete with the juggernaut? Jacobs believes the amount is much smaller, saying:

    Realistically, if you're going into this space for the first time, and you want to compete with 'WoW' and you want to compete with us -- because we're going into that same space -- you've got to make sure that you have at least 100 million dollars.

Jacobs notes the 100 million isn't necessarily just to cover development costs, but to recover if the company messes up. "A lot of start-ups fail because they run out of money. It's not because they don't work hard; it's like 'Oops, it took an extra year or two; now what do we do?'" he further explains.

While Jacobs will only admit to EA spending "south of $100 million on "Warhammer Online," he says they will need at least half a million subscribers to be successful.

Link

[tazelbain]

It seems crazy to talk about this type of stuff when in the middle of preparations to release a MMO.

[Mrbloodworth]

08/29/2008

[FatuousTwat]

I wonder if they will be saying the same thing in a few months?

[Nebu]

It seems crazy to talk about this type of stuff when in the middle of preparations to release a MMO.

I would assume that it's too late for a lead designer to do much to change launch at this point.  It's all down to the nuts & bolts folks to streamline and optimize things for a smooth release.  This is probably the best time to be out marketing the game so that you aren't trying to micromanage the people in the trenches  that already have overflowing in-boxes. 

Of course I'm not in the industry... so I'm just talking out my ass.

[Lantyssa]

Realistically, if you're going into this space for the first time, and you want to compete with 'WoW' and you want to compete with us -- because we're going into that same space -- you've got to make sure that you have at least 100 million dollars.

That is a little presumptuous.  The game hasn't even shipped yet and he is lumping WAR into the same tier as WoW.

[Ingmar]

The part that makes me go  is that he actually came out and said they need 500k subs to be 'successful'. I sure hope for Mythic's sake that 'successful' isn't the same as 'break even' here.

[WindupAtheist]

Regardless of the truth of the matter, you don't say shit like that out loud.  Now if it does 450k, instead of people saying "Well that's not a WoW killer, but it's solid" they'll say it's an official Jacobs-certified failure.  And that perception wouldn't help turn things around.

[Sparky]

You'd think the AOC developer WoW smack would give him pause

[Ratama]

Nah; AoC's devs didn't even give themselves a chance to compete (tech reqs); at least WAR will be playable on enough machines to compete with WoW.

WAR, assuming it doesn't suffer a complete launch meltdown, will peak at well over 1 mil subs, and should sustain over 500k easy.

And yeah, if they can't sustain over 500k subs, then WAR will be a horrible flop; his saying that out loud isn't going to hurt/change anything for the worse.

[schild]

500k will be a cakewalk for WAR. I'm not sure why this is a concern.

Edit: If it doesn't do 500k, it is not Mythics fault. It is EA marketing's fault.

[Soln]

FWIW, Jacobs I think is clever.  He knows this business.

Having heard him speak, seen him etc. I think he's setting just achievable expectations.  If they meet them they win, if they exceed, which I also believe, they'll win+.

There's only 1 way to fail, but he's creating the way for N+1 ways to win.  More goo to him either way.  Clevers.

[Lum]

I would assume that it's too late for a lead designer to do much to change launch at this point. 

The lead designer in question is Mark Jacobs, who in his day job runs Mythic. I'm pretty sure he could change launch if he wanted.

[photek]

500k will be a cakewalk for WAR. I'm not sure why this is a concern.

Edit: If it doesn't do 500k, it is not Mythics fault. It is EA marketing's fault.

I'll have to disagree with you here. It is partially EA marketing's fault yes, but it is also Mythics fault. The combat system, animations and the general feel and flow of the game has been sloppy since I joined the beta, and that is May 2007. It was the main discussion on the forums constantly and Mythic didn't do anything about it until a month prior to the weekend events, which is way too late to start polishing core mechanics and fixing what is singlehandedly most important design in the game.

Now since they fixed it so late, it introduced a new series of bugs and the client / server code is not polished and causing stupid stuff like letting spells that are on cooldowns start casting, then halfway through telling you it is actually on cooldown. Did it forget to ask the server ? I think this can drive away many players if not fixed before the 18th, particulary the huge crowd swarming to WAR. AoC attracted us all cause it was fun as hell and the combat and animations were top notch, still the best out there and we forgave them for a long period for bugs and feature lacking, but a core mechanic like combat mechanics, animation system and the feel of the game being sloppy ? Hmmm.

[Ratadm]

Considering AOC had something like a million subs originally 500k for war doesn't sound to unreasonable.

Also I'm kind of creeped out at how much Ratama's name resembles mine.

[Ratman_tf]

What happened to ye goode olde dayz when Blizzard was expecting a subscriber base of 250k for WoW and people didn't pretend to understand how they were a runaway success.

Oh, yeah. WoW happened.  

[Tale]

I have never, ever had a Warhammer product. I know nothing about the Warhammer universe. I think it's something to do with tabletop gaming miniatures and that game shop franchise that was completely useless to me as a teenager because it had no videogames or AD&D. It looked hardcore nerdy.

Warcraft was already a mainstream single-player videogame brand. I am wondering whether Warhammer really has as much market awareness as hardcore nerds think, or I'm just ignorant.

[Nebu]

The lead designer in question is Mark Jacobs, who in his day job runs Mythic. I'm pretty sure he could change launch if he wanted.

Well then, I just learned something new.  I've been in charge of many projects and they all come to a point where you just have to make them work by the deadline since the investors give you no other option.  I didn't realize that the lead developer could pull the plug at any time.   Granted, I've never been in charge of anything in the 50+ million dollar range.  That's a lot of pressure. 

[Murgos]

The point wasn't that he's lead developer, it's that he runs the company.  The guy who runs the company usually does have the power to reschedule things, at least in my experience.

[Trippy]

The point wasn't that he's lead developer, it's that he runs the company.  The guy who runs the company usually does have the power to reschedule things, at least in my experience.

Except that we already know he can't cause EA is making them launch in September hence they had to cut out a bunch of content.

[Salesman]

I would assume that it's too late for a lead designer to do much to change launch at this point. 

The lead designer in question is Mark Jacobs, who in his day job runs Mythic. I'm pretty sure he could change launch if he wanted.

He could at his own peril, the Money Boys are calling the shots now.

[Abelian75]

Did it forget to ask the server ?

It can't ask the server, that was the whole point of the responsiveness issue.  If it waits for server confirmation before doing anything, then things feel unresponsive as hell.

(Not commenting on anything else you said, just this line... it isn't as simple as what you're implying to solve the responsiveness issue, which actually supports the other stuff you're saying mostly.)

[Lakov_Sanite]

I have never, ever had a Warhammer product. I know nothing about the Warhammer universe. I think it's something to do with tabletop gaming miniatures and that game shop franchise that was completely useless to me as a teenager because it had no videogames or AD&D. It looked hardcore nerdy.

Warcraft was already a mainstream single-player videogame brand. I am wondering whether Warhammer really has as much market awareness as hardcore nerds think, or I'm just ignorant.

Seconded, I've gone to conventions, I've played DnD and I think I'm pretty nerdy but I'm 28 and I've never really known much about warhammer except A, I thought it was all in space and B. it was a minatures game with space marines. That said I do enjoy the lore and setting but damned if it's a mainstream product.

[trias_e]

Um, I won't be playing WAR because it's Warhammer (TM), I'll be playing it because it's DAOC 2 with some new shiny.  And I doubt I'm alone:  The mass AOC exodus at the least should be at hand to try it out (considering both games are PvP focused dikus), and WAR should have higher retention unless if Mythic really fucks it up. 

[Tale]

DAOwhat? The entire past playerbase of DAOC could go to WAR and it wouldn't make a ripple.

[MahrinSkel]

I have never, ever had a Warhammer product. I know nothing about the Warhammer universe. I think it's something to do with tabletop gaming miniatures and that game shop franchise that was completely useless to me as a teenager because it had no videogames or AD&D. It looked hardcore nerdy.

Warcraft was already a mainstream single-player videogame brand. I am wondering whether Warhammer really has as much market awareness as hardcore nerds think, or I'm just ignorant.

Seconded, I've gone to conventions, I've played DnD and I think I'm pretty nerdy but I'm 28 and I've never really known much about warhammer except A, I thought it was all in space and B. it was a minatures game with space marines. That said I do enjoy the lore and setting but damned if it's a mainstream product.

Both of you are in the US, right?  Tabletop gaming was always a niche in the US, and fantasy (vs. historical or sci-fi) was a niche of the niche.  In Europe, it's a lot better known.

--Dave

[Ingmar]

I have never, ever had a Warhammer product. I know nothing about the Warhammer universe. I think it's something to do with tabletop gaming miniatures and that game shop franchise that was completely useless to me as a teenager because it had no videogames or AD&D. It looked hardcore nerdy.

Warcraft was already a mainstream single-player videogame brand. I am wondering whether Warhammer really has as much market awareness as hardcore nerds think, or I'm just ignorant.

Seconded, I've gone to conventions, I've played DnD and I think I'm pretty nerdy but I'm 28 and I've never really known much about warhammer except A, I thought it was all in space and B. it was a minatures game with space marines. That said I do enjoy the lore and setting but damned if it's a mainstream product.

Those of us who are about one gaming generation earlier (I'm 34) are probably a good bit more familiar with Warhammer, because back then GW actually made an attempt to get into the US RPG market with Warhammer Fantasy. The Enemy Within campaign is still bandied about as one of the best published adventure series that PnP gaming has seen, but the system just never caught on and GW has never really known what to do with it, really.

EDIT: Fixed my shitty quoting failure.

[IainC]

Both of you are in the US, right?  Tabletop gaming was always a niche in the US, and fantasy (vs. historical or sci-fi) was a niche of the niche.  In Europe, it's a lot better known.

--Dave

This.

Practically no-one in Europe who is even remotely into gaming culture hasn't at least dabbled with GW stuff at some point in their lives. When I worked there, the numbers that were being thrown around were something like 68% of all 11-17 year olds in the UK have bought at least one GW product. Other Euro markets too are crazy for it - especially Scandinavia, Italy, France and Spain. Nearly all of the studio painters were Scandinavian and nearly all the tournament champions came from Italy for some reason. France has probably the best miniature painting scene in the world with some crazy stuff coming from studios there - check out the Rackham studio paintjobs for example.

I know what our projections are for the EU side and we're expecting the game to be bigger over on this side of the pond than it is in the US.

Interestingly here's Jeffrey Steefel of Turbine on much the same topic.

[Jeff Kelly]

I don't agree. real miniature tabletop gaming might be more popular in Europe but Wizards of the Coast just released the best 'quick and dirty' tabletop gaming system in the US. To roaring success I might add.

D&D is the single most popular RPG system in the US. And the new tabletop gaming rules for combat have been lauded by fans and the press in the US.

[Ingmar]

I don't agree. real miniature tabletop gaming might be more popular in Europe but Wizards of the Coast just released the best 'quick and dirty' tabletop gaming system in the US. To roaring success I might add.

D&D is the single most popular RPG system in the US. And the new tabletop gaming rules for combat have been lauded by fans and the press in the US.

MahrinSkel is talking about tabletop wargaming, not PnP RPGs. At least, I think so. His comment doesn't make sense otherwise.

[Ratman_tf]

I only knew of Warhammer Fantasy because it was put out by the same company as Warhammer 40K.

Why the hell wasn't this a 40k game? *cry* I'd actually (gasp) give that a shot at launch.

[Ratman_tf]

*I quoted myself. lol*

[Simond]

Practically no-one in Europe who is even remotely into gaming culture hasn't at least dabbled with GW stuff at some point in their lives. When I worked there, the numbers that were being thrown around were something like 68% of all 11-17 year olds in the UK have bought at least one GW product. Other Euro markets too are crazy for it - especially Scandinavia, Italy, France and Spain. Nearly all of the studio painters were Scandinavian and nearly all the tournament champions came from Italy for some reason. France has probably the best miniature painting scene in the world with some crazy stuff coming from studios there - check out the Rackham studio paintjobs for example.

I've still got (most of) the 40K Epic scale starter box in a cupboard somewhere.

[trias_e]

DAOwhat? The entire past playerbase of DAOC could go to WAR and it wouldn't make a ripple.

The potential subscriber base for MMORPGs has obviously massively grown since then.  WoW has also given people an interest in Diku PvP, so if Mythic can do that better than WoW, they'll be successful.

My point wasn't that people will be playing it just because its DAOC 2, they'll be playing it because it's a new MMORPG focused around the kind of PvP they've seen in WoW.  Once again, AOC didn't have huge box sales because of Conan lore.  It's simply a result of a large amount of ex-WoW or current WoW players looking for a new fix.

Also, I'd imagine the entire past playerbase of DAOC to be at least 400k, assuming they hit 250k max subs.  That's not just a ripple, but it's also not my point, so whatever.

[Ratman_tf]

My take is that you have your core audience of "hardcore" (meh) MMOG gamers at about 500k-1m. These are the guys who raid and pvp and uberize. They will try AoC and WAR and whatever else comes along that is MMOG.

Then you have the other 9m who solo and socalize and really aren't so interested in a new MMOG unless it's WoW 2 or the next Maple Story or whatever the fuck tickles their online fancy. (They don't play MMOGs to MMOG)

Yeah, there is overlap. Not a few of those 9m "others" raid or pvp, and some of those 1m "hardcore" solo and dip their feet into dungeons and raiding and pvp.

Etc. I don't think any conventional MMOG is going to attract the "other" crowd, since they are all featuring gameplay that the "others" aren't really interested in.