NVIDIA meltdown in progress

[Trippy]

Last week NVIDIA announced a huge earnings warning which sent their stock tumbling. Since then various sources have been trying to piece together the real story about what's going on. The Inquirer is reporting that all G84 (8600) and G86 (8500) GPUs are defective and not just the laptop ones:

http://www.theinquirer.net/gb/inquirer/news/2008/07/09/nvidia-g84-g86-bad

The Inquirer is a tad, uh, sensationalist, for those not familiar with the site but given the earnings warning there's definitely some bad stuff going on over at NVIDIA at the moment.

[Big Gulp]

but given the earnings warning there's definitely some bad stuff going on over at NVIDIA at the moment.

And I think it's only going to get worse.  Intel seems to be serious about increasing the amount of cores they can pack into a chipset.  Eventually it's got to come down to the fact that we won't need a dedicated GPU running vector-based graphics since we'll have excess cores that can just crunch out rasterized graphics.

[KallDrexx]

so does this mean my laptop just turned into a release day xbox 360 :(

[Ironwood]

Ouchie.

[Trippy]

so does this mean my laptop just turned into a release day xbox 360 :(

If it has an 8600M or 8500M that's very possible.

[Trippy]

but given the earnings warning there's definitely some bad stuff going on over at NVIDIA at the moment.

And I think it's only going to get worse.  Intel seems to be serious about increasing the amount of cores they can pack into a chipset.  Eventually it's got to come down to the fact that we won't need a dedicated GPU running vector-based graphics since we'll have excess cores that can just crunch out rasterized graphics.

Intel is a longer-term problem (Larabee is expected sometime around the end of 2009/beginning of 2010). Their more immediate concern is that ATI's current generation of GPUs is a better architecture than NVIDIA's which hasn't happened since the days of the ATI 9700/9800 and the NVIDIA 5xxx series. And now with the laptop GPU disaster it's likely they are going to lose a lot of that business to ATI, at least in the short term.

[KallDrexx]

If it has an 8600M or 8500M that's very possible.

Yep ti's a 8600M gt.

........yay.........

[Yoru]

All the current-gen MacBook Pros are running the 8600M too. Fun. Wonder what Apple will do about this...

[Sir T]

Whats the budget card market like between NVIDIA and ATI? That might be something to watch as well.

[Nija]

ATI's new budget card rapes face.

[HaemishM]

As in it's total shite, or as in it's the greatest thing since sliced bread?

Rapes face could be interpreted so many ways.

[Fabricated]

I haven't kept up with ATI for a while, how does their new line compared to the 8800/9800/GX series?

[Nevermore]

Isn't it the story with ATI that their hardware is at least as good, if not better, than comparable NVIDIA cards but the ATI drivers suck all kinds of ass and lots of games have problems with ATI cards?

[Chimpy]

Isn't it the story with ATI that their hardware is at least as good, if not better, than comparable NVIDIA cards but the ATI drivers suck all kinds of ass and lots of games have problems with ATI cards?

That has always been the general consensus.

[Big Gulp]

ATI's new budget card rapes face.

Yep.  I just picked up the HD4850 the other day for $199 and it crushes.  I can run Crysis fully maxed out with zero framerate problems, and I hardly have a great CPU.  The only problem with the card was the way they set up the fan; it doesn't do very well on it's automatic settings to cool the GPU.  I had to manually set it so I have three different GPU load profiles, on high the fan runs at 100%, medium 60%, and low 30%.  I hope to see this fixed up once ATI releases new drivers, but otherwise I have no complaints.

[Furiously]

but given the earnings warning there's definitely some bad stuff going on over at NVIDIA at the moment.

And I think it's only going to get worse.  Intel seems to be serious about increasing the amount of cores they can pack into a chipset.  Eventually it's got to come down to the fact that we won't need a dedicated GPU running vector-based graphics since we'll have excess cores that can just crunch out rasterized graphics.

Have you seen Intel's work at real time raytracing? 

[Ingmar]

The wife of one of my co-workers works there, I shall see if I can get any inside dirt.

[Nija]

As in it's total shite, or as in it's the greatest thing since sliced bread?

Rapes face could be interpreted so many ways.

It's actually really good. What Big Gulp purchased above. That's the card to get these days.

[Ingmar]

So, here's the dirt as I hear it from my contact:

The GPUs have a design flaw, and it really is *all* the G84s and G86s. It isn't a bad production line or one supplier or one set of cards, according to what I'm hearing. This is going to be really, really, really bad for them assuming I'm getting good info.

[schild]

Oh, wow.

[NiX]

Wait, does this affect desktop video cards too?

[Ingmar]

Wait, does this affect desktop video cards too?

Yeah, although I don't know specifically which cards. The reason the failure rate is higher on laptops is that it is apparently at least partially heat-related, and laptops tend to run hotter.

[NiX]

I have a BFG 8600GTS. Uh ohs.

[Big Gulp]

I have a BFG 8600GTS. Uh ohs.

Look at it this way, you didn't lose a video card, you gained a class action lawsuit!   

[Zar]

Well fuck me.  Just ordered a new laptop from Dell for law school with an 8400GS.  I saw this and called to cancel the order and Apu informed me that it had already been manufactured and could not be cancelled, and that I should "call back once it arrives if I want to return it."  Then he told me it had an estimated ship date of 7/24.  I inquired as to what exactly they were going to do with the laptop for the next 13 days if its already been manufactured, which overloaded his CSR circuits.

At least I got the 3 year warranty, I guess. 

[HaemishM]

Fuck. I just bought my wife an 8600, and the new computer at work has an 8400 GS in it. I wonder when they'll both shit the bed.

[KallDrexx]

Wait, does this affect desktop video cards too?

Yeah, although I don't know specifically which cards. The reason the failure rate is higher on laptops is that it is apparently at least partially heat-related, and laptops tend to run hotter.

What the inquirer article pretty much said was the defect is caused by hot->cold->hot cycles, which is more prevalent in laptops than desktops (since laptops tend to be turned on and off more often), which is why the failure rates from desktops are less.

[schild]

So, my 8600GTS would be effected? This would explain SO MUCH about my problems with that card.

[fuser]

The Inquirer is a tad, uh, sensationalist, for those not familiar with the site but given the earnings warning there's definitely some bad stuff going on over at NVIDIA at the moment.

AMD is getting pounded left right and center as of late. It's like a train outta control the past year/two and I hope they can even survive just to keep ATI going in some way.

"Advanced Micro Devices Inc. will take an $880 million writedown on the value of its handheld and digital television units in the second quarter, plus several other charges, the chipmaker said in a regulatory filing Friday." source

What the inquirer article pretty much said was the defect is caused by hot->cold->hot cycles, which is more prevalent in laptops than desktops (since laptops tend to be turned on and off more often), which is why the failure rates from desktops are less.

This is going to be the issue, and I'm sure the cycle of medium -> hot (fan speed up) -> medium cooling of laptop video cards is also killing it.

[rattran]

Amd may be taking a pounding, but the 4870 kicks the shit out of the 9800gtx in everything I've thrown at it. More fps at higher settings, and prettier. As everyone else did, I had to manually turn the fan up, but at 60% it's still quieter than the 9800gtx, and cooler. The drivers seem to work just fine.

Set it to 100% just to see how loud it was, and it was like a jet engine.

[Big Gulp]

Set it to 100% just to see how loud it was, and it was like a jet engine.

Heh.  No kidding.  The annoying thing is, I'm now paranoid about heat with this card.  Initially plugging it in and noticing that you're running at 78 degrees centigrade with no load will do that to you.  Consequently, if it's an eye candy game like Crysis or COD4 I run that bitch at 100% and just turn up the sound to drown out that fan.

I'm actually thinking about buying an aftermarket cooling solution for my video card.  This is something I never would have even considered in the past.

[fuser]

Amd may be taking a pounding, but the 4870 kicks the shit out of the 9800gtx in everything I've thrown at it.

Indeed I'd seriously look at going to it the price/performance is fantastic! Not to mention I hate NVIDIA's UMAP.

[NiX]

Look at it this way, you didn't lose a video card, you gained a class action lawsuit!   

If it turns out that way, it won't be the first time I've had a product that was part of one.

[rattran]

I'm actually thinking about buying an aftermarket cooling solution for my video card.  This is something I never would have even considered in the past.

I did that for my 8800gt, worked fine. But the 4870 runs at no more than 60C under heavy load with the fan set to 60% minimum, and that's only in Crysis. I'd fire up a heat monitoring program and track what temps yours gets to. And I think most/all the 4850s vent into the case, so make sure you've got enough airflow to get the heat away. No good having the fan set high if it just turns the whole case into an easy bake oven.

[Yoshimaru]

Damn, at least now we get answers. I've had a problem with my 8600M GT in my latptop ever since I bought it... Had it replaced once but still does the same thing... Looks like I'm royally fucked.