NPD to start tracking MMO subscriptions

[Venkman]

According to GameDaily.

Here's the backstory from 1up:

When the NPD Group released 2007 sales data pointing out that PC games made up a mere 14% of all of the year's game sales, PC enthusiasts quickly and rightfully pointed to at least two areas in PC game sales that the NPD currently does not cover

And then a reality check from GameDaily:

Zagorsek told us that although they can't provide data points today, they'll likely be coming out with some headline numbers in a week or two. He confirmed to us that, as we suspected, MMOs have been the biggest revenue driver of online subscriptions. In addition, he said that NPD will be planning to track downloadable games as well, "which we believe is a smaller market than subscriptions right now but probably growing more quickly." He added, "It'll take us a little longer to get the methodology worked out for that though, most likely launching later in the year."

I'm very curious to see what the first round of numbers are. I'm going to be slightly miffed if they just transcribe MMOGchart.com. At the same time, I really don't know how they'll be able to get any more numbers than any of us could google'ing and reading annual reports. I'm still not sure what actual benefit this provides to the nonomgbillions!11/ companies out there, so don't know why they'd bother reporting them to NPD.

Finally, I want to see how they'll break it down between:

• Games that only make first-party revenue from subscribers
• Games that make money from ingame ads and microtransactions
• Whether they break down comparisons between games based no common territories or just do the flat-out WoW wins thing.
• How they show the difference between the 100mil+ "registered accounts" of some microtrans titles and the we-make-money-per-headcount method of the sub-2mil subscriber games (because Blizzard is very straightforward with how they report).

They said "in a few weeks". But they also said "headliners". Could just be the usual suspects on a list reported he usual way.

[HaemishM]

At the same time, I really don't know how they'll be able to get any more numbers than any of us could google'ing and reading annual reports.

They can call up John Smedley and say "This is NPD." That will hold a lot more weight than "I'm that furry asshat web demon that pisses everyone off and hangs around game developers like I belong."

They still likely won't get everyone, and it still will be meaningless to anyone except sub wonks like you and me and VC guys who want to justify pissing $30 million away.

[Merusk]

OOh, so that's where Bruce went to.

[Mrbloodworth]

What is "NPD" and what do they do. In English.

[sam, an eggplant]

They do market research for all kinds of industries, including games.

I never really understood why these companies stopped releasing their numbers in the first place. I don't see that opacity as offering any kind of real advantage.

[Velorath]

Typically, NPD only gets numbers for the NA market, so I'm curious as to whether that means we'll likely only be getting the numbers for games developed in NA, and if we'll get worldwide numbers for those games or just the number of subscribers in NA.

Also there's a good chance these numbers won't be made public (NPD makes their money selling reports like this).  A few months back they came close to deciding to not release their game sales numbers publicly.

[Venkman]

I never really understood why these companies stopped releasing their numbers in the first place. I don't see that opacity as offering any kind of real advantage.

You brag when you have something to brag about, and go silent when you don't. Having said that, I think if SOE was still reporting their numbers per game today, others would be as well. When they were on the rise, they reported both accounts and the number of people logged in per server. Then everyone started talking about the competition that was coming (most conversations were about DAoC and SB at the time), and SOE probably started to realize there was no reason for the gamers of the world to have so many ways to compare the "success" of a game. They were probably the first to realize such gamer comparisons would affect their business more than any sort of marketing campaign could overcome. Of course, it was only apparently the EQ1 team learning that lesson.

I don't see it necessarily as whether this is actually a bad thing to reveal. I just see it as something a business unit manager would think is a bad thing to reveal.

@Haemish: I don't think "NPD" has any more weight than your average board troll in this regard, unless there was some financial recompense that came with such a disclosure. The core challenge is the same whoever's on the other side of the phone call: what benefit does reporting such numbers provide to SOE or anyone?

[HaemishM]

@Haemish: I don't think "NPD" has any more weight than your average board troll in this regard, unless there was some financial recompense that came with such a disclosure. The core challenge is the same whoever's on the other side of the phone call: what benefit does reporting such numbers provide to SOE or anyone?

The same benefit EA gets from showing Madden topping the video game sales chart. If you are doing well, you like to brag, and if you suck, well... everybody probably already knows it anyway. For successful MMOG's, I'd think showing good sub numbers would be a huge benefit, because people would rather join a populated MMOG than a non-populated one.

NPD DOES have more weight than board trolls, by virtue of the fact that people pay them for their reports. I think more people would give them numbers than wouldn't.

[Numtini]

Having worked at a tech business research firm when I was in DC, they do have more weight in the mainstream. Whether they are more accurate or not is questionable. Our market reports were, imho, about the same thing you could find on the average tech message board. We did, however, do real research, make real phone calls, pour through corporate reports and releases, and do our best to be accurate. At the least, with NPD you won't wonder if someone was going on a rumor s/he overheard at a tradeshow and misunderstood or was just inflating numbers because they like the game. At least in our case, our facts were also usually footnoted as to source.

That doesn't mean you can't get an idiot on the phone who gives you the wrong answers or an analyst that isn't as bright and doesn't get past the marketing-speak and falls for Lindens "total residents" or SWG's "total accounts created," but it's going to be better than your average troll.

[Venkman]

For successful MMOG's, I'd think showing good sub numbers would be a huge benefit, because people would rather join a populated MMOG than a non-populated one.

Trouble is, how do you show that fantasy DIKUs (for example) not called WoW are also successful when a direct comparison of the subscriber base screams anything but?

I think NPD actually does some good work. I generally like having both them and DFC looking at stuff because they look at it different ways. What I'm hoping comes from NPD though is more than just installed base, paying subscribers and number of people to play in the last 30 days. I want to see some of what I said above, and things like ARPU, box sales vs upfront development vs profit, how these games compare against a number of different metrics. In particular, I want them to answer the question of whether xtrans games actually work so maybe we can get beyond anime-inspired browser crap and the occasional Agency-like "real" attempt.

(edit: changed a conclusion to a question).

[HaemishM]

For successful MMOG's, I'd think showing good sub numbers would be a huge benefit, because people would rather join a populated MMOG than a non-populated one.

Trouble is, how do you show that fantasy DIKUs (for example) not called WoW are also successful when a direct comparison of the subscriber base screams anything but?

Successful MMOG's are still in business.

[Merusk]

For successful MMOG's, I'd think showing good sub numbers would be a huge benefit, because people would rather join a populated MMOG than a non-populated one.

Trouble is, how do you show that fantasy DIKUs (for example) not called WoW are also successful when a direct comparison of the subscriber base screams anything but?

The same way Lexus shows they're successful when compared to Toyota,  Or Dr. Pepper co. vs Coke or Pepsi?

[Venkman]

Good point. At the same time though:

• Don't the auto companies all have to report the numbers due to being public?
• Wouldn't those number be able to be compiled directly from dealerships anyway? (I'm thinking here like the TRST data retailers used to send numbers to. I think some still do, but not the biggest ones).

Because I still see a difference between that and privately held vertical organizations that are about the only people who can know the activity in their worlds, and therefore have the opportunity to hold that information close to the vest. Maybe people could go to their ISPs, but I'd imagine they wouldn't either be allowed to talk about it.

[sam, an eggplant]

Sony, EA, NCsoft and Funcom are all publicly owned. So, no.

[Trippy]

If companies like SOE aren't saying what their numbers are now there's no reason to give them to NPD unless NPD is only going to use them in aggregate and even then it's iffy. Most likely NPD is going to try and estimate active subscription numbers based on retail box sales figures.

[Venkman]

SB points to this release. Having not seen that (man I hate being a few days late), this does answer the question of how they're getting the numbers:

They are based on consumer information reported by NPD’s online panel of more than 3 million consumers who have agreed to complete online surveys.

Any number of ways to get those surveys filled out, and I'm not really particularly suspicious since there's also a lot of ways to ensure that data is not biased (ie, in the way something like xfire doesn't necessarily span all gamers of all stripes).

But at least we do know John Smedley won't be needing to answer that phone call

[Ratman_tf]

Jesus. Sir Bruce is like some idiot savant counting matchsticks over and over. Except he keeps counting imaginary matchsticks...

[shiznitz]

Sony, EA, NCsoft and Funcom are all publicly owned. So, no.

SOE is a tiny part of Sony so subscriptions numbers are immaterial, and thus, don't need to be reported. EA has no MMOs that meet materiality standards either. If WAR is 500k+ subs, then they will more than likely disclose the figures - or at least revenues - quarterly. Even if they lump DAoC and WAR together, that is more information than we have now. NCSoft does provide reasaonably good data on its MMOs. Funcom will too since investors are banking on AoC and they will want details. Lastly, Blizzard's combination with Activision will keep WoW numbers public.

There really won't be a need for NPD to do the work.

[WayAbvPar]

"I'm that furry asshat web demon that pisses everyone off

I read the entire thread and chuckled at this the entire time.