*Official* 2007 College Football Thread

[cmlancas]

I watch the teams play too, you know. I don't have a good argument for OSU because I don't watch Big-10 or Pac-10 religiously, but I watch a shitton of ACC/SEC/Big East. You've got me on the OSU argument, but I don't believe the "USF is dogshit" from a few posts back, and that's why I'm posting what I'm posting. Also, the Boston baseball game is going really, really slow and I need something to do.

[Triforcer]

Sigh.  Maybe you'll understand it this way.

Both me and Evander Holyfield box a six year old boy.  Both of us KO him in one punch.  Therefore, there is no way to distinguish between the boxing ability of Evander Holyfield and me.

Think about why you'd disagree with that, and then answer your Kansas/OSU question.

That is begging the question. You have anointed OSU as Holyfield and Kansas as you without any basis in fact for doing so other than your incredibly biased subjective labeling.

Wrong.  You are deliberately misunderstanding what I've been saying.  Obviously "general" reputation shouldn't factor into ranking teams.  But OSU was in the championship game LAST YEAR.  They beat two #2 ranked teams..  OSU players aren't wearing the same color trunks as last year's players, they ARE last year's players.

That isn't institutional reputation (which I agree would be a BS factor in ranking teams).  When a team has proven itself IN PAST YEARS, and those same players ARE STILL AROUND, then it is reasonable to use that data in evaluating them now.   

Are you seriously suggesting that past performance, when the same players are still around, means absolutely nothing in evaluating a team?  I agree it shouldn't be the paramount factor, but as a tiebreaker or a means of differentiating teams with identical records it is quite valuable. 

[Montague]

I think a bunch of people are just red-assing that the dominant teams are blowing dick and losing should-win games this year resulting in a level playing field. Most of the conferences are pretty well-matched, with the SEC probably having a stronger conference than the others (par for the course). However, if you lose to a team that Ranked_Opponent_01 is supposed to beat, don't whine and bitch that "X team should be #1 even if we lost to (insert team here)." There are plenty of other teams that are proving themselves day in and day out. You might think LSU is better than USF, but what if Auburn beats LSU next week? What then? What if Kentucky keeps winning?


Maybe it is only that I live in Tampa where there are a shitload of OSU/UF fans that I have to hear garbage about USF sucks this, USF sucks that and plays an easy schedule, but hearing it here from what I considered for a little bit to be a more educated college football crowd makes me want to shoot myself.

You want to be #1? Don't be Boise State and fucking win some football games. Don't complain when a team loses and another pretty good team is undefeated and is ranked higher than you.

For fuck's sake. I'd take USF's defense over anyone in the nation. Grothe is starting to look better game in and game out. We went into Auburn AT HOME and won. We beat WVU. What else do you want before we're not dogshit?!

Precisely.

You see, if you're a major powerhouse (Ohio State) and win all your games but you don't have any top 10 teams played, you suck and you're a fraud.

If on the other hand you're a newcomer and win all your games, including a top 10 team and a top 20 team from the conference du jour, you suck and you're a fraud.

But losing games is ok as long as you're a trendy team.

[Abagadro]

Past performance isn't irrelevant, but these are not dependent events. They are independent events using non-identical variables (i.e. a different roster).  In fact, you are basing a ranking upon exogenous events altogether as the only reason they have risen from 11 to 1 is because of things that have absolutely nothing to do with them. Have they beaten teams that justify moving up? No, they just haven't lost to really weak teams. Wow, what an accomplishment.

Plus, the Big Ten wasn't any great shakes last year either (2-5 in the bowls) Going through that isn't something to base anything on. 

[Abagadro]

USF is dogshit

Well, I didn't say that. I said the Big East is a dogshit conference, and it is. USF is a nice team but has no business in the top 3.

[Triforcer]

No, they just haven't lost to really weak teams. Wow, what an accomplishment.

USC, Cal, Michigan, Louisville, and numerous others would disagree with you.  Part of being a championship caliber team is having the mental focus to not sleepwalk through games you are "obviously" going to win.

[Montague]

Abogadro's Top 5:

1. LSU
2. Florida
3. South Carolina
4. Kentucky
5. Auburn.

That about right?

[Abagadro]

Way to pick teams I wouldn't put up at the top either. Selection bias anyone? 

So part of being a championship team is to schedule cupcakes, beat the shit out of them and hope people in front of you lose?  I mean, come on. Youngstown State? Akron? Kent State?

What was Duke not available?

[Abagadro]

Abogadro's Top 5:

1. LSU
2. Florida
3. South Carolina
4. Kentucky
5. Auburn.

That about right?

Nope. Why have you identified me as an SEC honk? Because it fits your preconception and you can dismiss my opinion without any substantive argument in return? 

I'd say the top four teams right now are LSU, Oregon, Oklahoma and South Carolina. I wouldn't put them in any particular order as they could all compete for the top spot on any given day.  After that is a group of about 5 or 6 teams that are second tier: USF, Florida, Kentucky, USC, Cal (with their starting QB), Missouri, Az. State, Ohio State.

I frankly think rankings are ridiculous in the first place, so I'd go with groupings like that.

[Montague]

Way to pick teams I wouldn't put up at the top either. Selection bias anyone? 

So part of being a championship team is to schedule cupcakes, beat the shit out of them and hope people in front of you lose?  I mean, come on. Youngstown State? Akron? Kent State?

What was Duke not available?

Edited, since you weren't referring to me

[Abagadro]

Like I said, I root for a sucky team that is irrelevant: The University of Utah.

[Montague]

Abogadro's Top 5:

1. LSU
2. Florida
3. South Carolina
4. Kentucky
5. Auburn.

That about right?

Nope. Why have you identified me as an SEC honk? Because it fits your preconception and you can dismiss my opinion without any substantive argument in return? 

I'd say the top four teams right now are LSU, Oregon, Oklahoma and South Carolina. I wouldn't put them in any particular order as they could all compete for the top spot on any given day.  After that is a group of about 5 or 6 teams that are second tier: USF, Florida, Kentucky, USC, Cal (with their starting QB), Missouri, Az. State, Ohio State.

I frankly think rankings are ridiculous in the first place, so I'd go with groupings like that.

Heh. Oregon's only substantive win was over Michigan, since being in the Big 10 automagically sucks and is worth nothing.

Oklahoma is up there, but their defense is iffy.

South Carolina is pretty much OSU SEC. Average offense, great defense.

LSU is extremely talented but Les Miles has let us say a very tight collar.

[Abagadro]

Like I said, it's based upon watching teams play, not arbitrary rankings.

EDIT: I also think it is funny that you said this earlier in the thread about WVU: "A decent program with an explosive offense that runs up the score on lesser teams and thus gets more hype and exposure than it deserves. When the Mountaineers beat a team with a defense of the caliber of USC, Ohio State, Florida, Oklahoma, etc I'll be impressed. Otherwise, they're overhyped and overrated imo."

This is basically what I am saying about OSU, but because you are a homer, you are blind to it.

[Montague]

Anyway here's my top 5 FWIW purely subjective based on my opinion on a neutral field:

1. LSU
2. Ohio State
3. Oklahoma
4. USF
5. Florida

Basically LSU and Florida have the most talent, but they make too many mistakes. Oklahoma has a great offense, iffy defense. USF is solid and balanced but at this level I don't think they have the personnel to win an NC. OSU has a killer defense and questions on offense.

What I think the final rankings will be:

1. LSU
2. Oklahoma
3. USC
4. Ohio State
5. USF

I think OSU loses at Michigan thanks to the LLoyd Carr retirement schtick. Oklahoma and LSU win out, USF stumbles along the way, USC wins out if Booty gets healthy.

[Abagadro]

USF stumbles along the way

I think if USF ultimately loses, they will get punished way more than that. A team like that elevated to that level gets absolutely killed in the polls if they drop a game.

[Montague]

Like I said, it's based upon watching teams play, not arbitrary rankings.

EDIT: I also think it is funny that you said this earlier in the thread about WVU: "A decent program with an explosive offense that runs up the score on lesser teams and thus gets more hype and exposure than it deserves. When the Mountaineers beat a team with a defense of the caliber of USC, Ohio State, Florida, Oklahoma, etc I'll be impressed. Otherwise, they're overhyped and overrated imo."

This is basically what I am saying about OSU, but because you are a homer, you are blind to it.

West Virginia is overrated. Name the last time they beat a top 5 team. I'll wait.

Ohio State has a defense. #1 defense in the NCAA in points allowed, in fact. I'll take my chances with Tressel and that defense against any team in the NCAA, Tebow and Florida included.

[Montague]

USF stumbles along the way

I think if USF ultimately loses, they will get punished way more than that. A team like that elevated to that level gets absolutely killed in the polls if they drop a game.

Ehh yeah you're right. Probably stick Florida or somebody in there instead if USF loses. Now watch after all this forum warrioring OSU will lay an egg against Michigan State next week 

[Paelos]

My lord people quit beating Ab to death for basically being right about the rankings and the bullshit way the media views things.

OSU has played nobody. Find me an opponent that actually is important so far. You can't. However, they are about to run the gauntlet of tougher opponents where they will probably go 4-2 and end up at #20.

USF, I love them. I love them so much they are my proxy-team to root for as a Georgia fan. I'm an SEC guy, and everyone knows it. HOWEVER, they are not elite. They are not a national contender. More things have to be done in their conference where they play the majority of their games before you can start to consider such a team as worthy of greatness. More expansion must take place in out of conference play as well. One win does not make a championship. Be that as it may, I'd love to see a USF v. Ohio State final, because Ohio State would take 40 days off while being hyped before they fucked it up.

Boston Colllege. Seriously, would we even be talking about these guys if they weren't undefeated in a time of supreme weirdness? Hell no. The ranked opponent they played was Georgia Tech. Yeah, look it up. It's pathetic. The ACC is a shithole right now. Even the Big 10 is more relevent and competitive, and that's not saying much.

Oklahoma has the best chance to win the whole thing. They don't play anybody worth a damn, they stand up to teams that they have to play against who might be worth a damn, and Bob Stoops can win a big game. The loss to Colorado is an anomoly in a road game. I think of all the teams, this is one of the national contenders.

LSU, what a shitty shitty way to lose in Kentucky. Dropped passes and bad defense slaughtered LSU. Will they make the mistake again? Yeah, on the road probably. Les Miles looks like he has no idea where he is, which might be the only thing holding such a great team back. They won't make it to the national title now that they dropped a game. The SEC will eat them alive.

USC...Guess what, one loss won't matter. This will be the team playing OU in the championship, and nobody will give a shit. I honestly don't care who wins in that battle because we all lose as college football fans. The media will put them into the title fight as fast as they possibly can.

[Nevermore]

Oh, he's right that the media and pollsters have a screwed up view of things.  My only argument with Ab is his assertion that USF doesn't belong in the top 5.

4 of the 6 computer polls have rankings out for Oct 7.  LSU is obviously #1 in all of them, but here's how the other teams you mention stack up:

Billingsley, Colley, Massey, Sagarin*

OSU: #2, #4, #5, #6
USF: #3, #3, #2, #2
BC: #5, #8, #4, #8
Oklahoma: #18, #20, #30, #27
USC: #8, #25, #24, #26

Come Monday the computers will be very kind to USF on the BSC rankings, but the human polls won't be.  It'll probably be something dumb like OSU, Oklahoma, LSU, BC, USF.

*Sagarin only uses the ELO_CHESS portion for the BCS.

Edit: That's how I think the Coaches Poll will end up.  USF will be higher in the AP.  Harris is a toss-up.

[Paelos]

Do I like the fact that a Big East team like USF has no shot at the national title? No. I think they deserve their shot. HOWEVER, they don't deserve it in the title game. I want them to play somebody to prove their worth outside of a conference that is (at best) mediocre. Auburn wasn't good. Let's all face facts on that one. Every team that's been given a chance to be great has been shattered, outside of South Florida. And the funny thing is that they have holes that are glaringly obvious if they played a stronger set of teams week to week.

For one, their kicker sucks. I know it's not cool to beat down on someone's special teams, but how many times has that made the difference in other games this year? 50% won't get the job done in a close matchup. Look it up.

Second, they suffer from "Tebow Syndrome" to a degree. Grothe provides 2/3 of their yards and basically IS their offense. That's out of balance for college football. Eventually good teams start keying on him in bigger games and shut him down. This happened with Florida. It will happen to South Florida in a huge game if they make it that far. Compare them to a team like OSU, or Boston College, or LSU, who has a 50/50 split almost exactly between QB total yardages and rushing.

Third and finally, there's zero name recognition before this season. Regular fans are thinking "flash in the pan" for this team, and long term testing is the only thing that will prove otherwise. Nobody wants to see a Big East team in the national championship because it's an 8-man, blown apart conference this year. But what other conference is standing strong these days? Your best hope is to slide by on an undefeated "Utah-esque" ride.

[Abagadro]

The Computer polls are useful, but much of their input comes from the very same flawed human rankings.

[cmlancas]

What was Duke not available?

Duke beat FSU a few years back.

Since you've been dodgy answering some questions in this thread, who are your top 5?

[Abagadro]

What was Duke not available?

Duke beat FSU a few years back.

Since you've been dodgy answering some questions in this thread, who are your top 5?

Yes, Duke is certainly a powerhouse. 

I answered that, as well as every other question asked of me.

What will be amusing is when one of your teams lose and you are all in here crying about the ranking system punishing teams that lose late over teams that lose early.

[Abagadro]

Heh, the computer component of the BSC has OSU tied for 5th.

[Montague]

Heh, the computer component of the BSC has OSU tied for 5th.

Heh, the component that matters has OSU 1st.

[Abagadro]

I find your responses really odd. You keep talking about me crying. I'm simply making statements. I'm not upset about it. I don't root for any teams that are even in the top 25. I have two college football passions: Rooting for the Utes and hating the BYU Cougars with the burning passion of a thousand suns (In fact, my disdain for the ridiculous ranking systems stems in large part from that joke of a National Championship in 1984). Everything beyond that is just observation and comment. The only one seemingly completely devoid of objectivity is you. It will be funny to watch either: 1) the usual whine when a late loss dooms title hopes or 2) OSU's bitchslapping at the hands of a real team either in regular play or in the championship game since their ranking is undeserved (see Exhibit A 2007 Tostitos Bowl).

[Triforcer]

LSU is still #5, and got a first place vote?  What bullshit.  Like Montague said: if you are the trendy team, then everyone makes excuses for your losses.

[Montague]

I find your responses really odd. You keep talking about me crying. I'm simply making statements. I'm not upset about it. I don't root for any teams that are even in the top 25. I have two college football passions: Rooting for the Utes and hating the BYU Cougars with the burning passion of a thousand suns (In fact, my disdain for the ridiculous ranking systems stems in large part from that joke of a National Championship in 1984). Everything beyond that is just observation and comment. The only one seemingly completely devoid of objectivity is you. It will be funny to watch either: 1) the usual whine when a late loss dooms title hopes or 2) OSU's bitchslapping at the hands of a real team either in regular play or in the championship game since their ranking is undeserved (see Exhibit A 2007 Tostitos Bowl).

News flash: I never claimed OSU was going to win a NC. I fully expect them to lose to at least Michigan and have said so several times in this thread.

All you've done is cry about the polls.
Cried about the BCS.
Cried about the Big 10 being weak.
Cried about OSU's schedule.
Cried about OSU's national title. Hell you cried about Miami being in the title game, which is total rofflesauce.
Cried about USF.

You see, when OSU loses (not if), I'm not going to cry nearly as much as you've already done in this thread. Carry on with your passive-aggressive douchebaggery though, if it makes you feel better.

[Abagadro]

All you've done is cry about the polls.
Cried about the BCS.
Cried about the Big 10 being weak.
Cried about OSU's schedule.
Cried about OSU's national title. Hell you cried about Miami being in the title game, which is total rofflesauce.
Cried about USF.

I do not think that word means what you think it means.

LSU is still #5, and got a first place vote?  What bullshit.  Like Montague said: if you are the trendy team, then everyone makes excuses for your losses.

Or people who aren't raging homers can evaluate various talent levels of teams and judge who they have played.

[Trippy]

Cut it out Mr. "Wolverine Killer".

[Montague]

Cut it out Mr. "Wolverine Killer".

I have pictures...  :-D 

Alright, standing down. 

[Nevermore]

Interesting comparison of conferences I saw posted over on Fark:

Average (per team) score of the Harris and Coaches Poll:

Pac-10: 0.2643
SEC: 0.2628
Big East: 0.2114
Big 12: 0.1769
ACC: 0.1396
Big 10: 0.1170

Average (per team) score of the computer polls:
SEC: 0.3408
Big East: 0.2175
Pac-10: 0.1900
ACC: 0.1800
Big 12: 0.1483
Big 10: 0.0827

The averages come from the entire conference, top to bottom. Teams that didn't receive any votes in the polls or top 25 rankings from the computers counted as 0.

By the way, every single computer ranking used by the BCS has USF #1. 

[Paelos]

I agree with that list as far as which conferences are having the most successful year. PAC-10 and the SEC are putting on a show this year from teams that you normally don't get to hear anything about.

[Montague]

Juicy rumor:

One of the intarweb boards I frequent had someone posted that Nebraska AD Steve Pederson and the entire Husker coaching staff except for Callahan are fired effective immediately. Supposedly a 10AM news conference tomorrow morning to announce this.

As always, take it fwiw but after Nebraska was fucking humiliated in front of Tom Osborne and the 1997 team on Saturday I could believe this.

[sigil]

There's  a lot of repressed anger to six year olds in  this thread.