LOTRO TAXI to victory lasted two weeks

[Mesozoic]

This is known as the 'Vanguard Factor'. So much hype they believe in their own mediocrity. I refused to buy this trash from the beginning, as did most of my guild. A smart move, it seems.

What?

[Pendan]

You can filter for almost anything. Getting a full count is a painful process of separating out chunks of less than 100 players. So you set for all zones, and one class from 1-20 that's 80, then 21-30 that's 50, and so on.

I have found the social panel to be fairly inaccurate. The other day I had it do a list of the number of level 50s online. The count was 8 but did not include a guild mate that was level 50 and online chatting in kinship. Person showed up in the kinship panel just fine. Additionally I know it can take quite a bit of time for all the names it is going to display to actaully show up in the list. In monster play if I do a social panel check of who is in the entire zone first it will show names of those in current subzone, then after 10 seconds more names will start appearing. It does not settle down and stop adding names until 30 seconds or so have passed. In the case of the missing level 50 kinsman however I left it open for 2 minutes without the name coming up and I am talking about just 8 others in the set.

[DraconianOne]

The discussion is: is this market growing, or it is just WoW growing? What are the expectations for a big-budget MMO right now?

Is this market growing?  Judging from general chat on the LOTRO server I play on most nights, there seem to be a fair few people who have started playing LOTRO who have not played an MMO before.  Servers are filling up quite quickly too.  Make of that whatever you will.  I'd like to be able to give you figures but quite frankly I don't give a fuck.  As for your sales chart - it just shows rankings, not units sold and without having the units sold prior to that period (and subsequently), how can it possibly determine anything?  It's still possible for LOTRO to have sold 10% more copies than the week before but to also have dropped in the charts. 

[Azazel]

I'm sure Turbine will let us know when they hit their first million in sales and/or active accounts.

 

[Hound]

So has there ever been a MMO that knocked WoW from #1 and stayed there for say... two weeks or a month?

Vanguard? DDO? Auto Assault? Archlord? Dark & Light?

We got just shit in the last couple of years.

Well let me see if I follow this. WoW went back to #1 in sales which means LoTRO is a loser. Therefore every game that is not ahead of WoW in sales number is a loser game. That about sum it up?

Just for further thought EBgames still has LoTRO at the top of their best seller list, and over at Amazon.com this hour Nancy Drew: The White Wolf of Icicle Creek pre order is at #1, WoW is #2 and LoTRO is number 8. I might have to look into that Nancy Drew thing since it is at #1.

[HRose]

I'm sure Turbine will let us know when they hit their first million in sales and/or active accounts.

IF they hit their first million in sales and/or active accounts.

[Chimpy]

I'm sure Turbine will let us know when they hit their first million in sales and/or active accounts.

IF they hit their first million in sales and/or active accounts.

Do they even need to break 1mil to be considered successful?

Comparing a games success to WoW is like a musician trying to compare their album to Micahel Jackson's Thriller album. Nothing released since has even come close to it in sales. But there are tons of artists that have had success since then.

[HRose]

We cannot say for sure.

Darniaq loves to speak about costs. I don't think that LOTRO was cheap. And Turbine has already wasted a ton of money till now for this to be their very last chance to survive.

I don't think they are doing all that well, but, again, we cannot know for sure.

Doing better than Vanguard isn't exactly something to be proud of.

[CmdrSlack]

We cannot say for sure.

Darniaq loves to speak about costs. I don't think that LOTRO was cheap. And Turbine has already wasted a ton of money till now for this to be their very last chance to survive.

I don't think they are doing all that well, but, again, we cannot know for sure.

Doing better than Vanguard isn't exactly something to be proud of.

As long as they hit their ROI, it doesn't really matter.  Everything past that is maintenance and gravy.  There's nobody here that predicted 1million subs (I don't think), and I think that 400k by Xmas is highly doable -- I don't expect a huge upswing until after summer.  Sure, maybe the types to pick up an MMO aren't lured outside by sunshine and skimpily clad women, but one can hope.

I know you like the doom and gloom and all man, but if Turbine was in dire financial straits, I'm sure it would have been leaked by now.

[HRose]

I know you like the doom and gloom and all man, but if Turbine was in dire financial straits, I'm sure it would have been leaked by now.

There were if your memory held more than a few months. They axed AC2, cut most of the AC1 team, the rest just quit. They quit their distributor, bought the license and tried to rise more funds to avoid LOTRO being canceled.

I do believe that if LOTRO doesn't reach their expectations then Turbine is done for good. I'm sure others have more insight but I'm not sure if they want to speak publicly. What remains to be seen is what actually are their expectations. We know at least that Codemaster's goal is 1M just for EU.

Either LOTRO represents Turbine's fate or they did a wonderful work to make someone else pay in their place. Money doesn't grow on trees.

[Tmon]

I know you like the doom and gloom and all man, but if Turbine was in dire financial straits, I'm sure it would have been leaked by now.

....I do believe that if LOTRO doesn't reach their expectations then Turbine is done for good....

Oh well I'm sure Sony will gladly add LOTRO to their stable should that come to pass.  But I'm betting that Turbine will plug along nicely.  The game doesn't suck, and they are actively adding free content as we speak.  I don't know anyone who has stated that this game was a WOW killer or even a serious competiter but I think theres room for a good solid not WoW 400k subscriber MMO which should be enough to keep things ticking along nicely.

[schild]

LOTRO is going to do Just Fine.

[Cheddar]

Why does anyone respond to Hrose?


*posting BONANZA!

[Nyght]

/SirBruce On

We cannot say for sure.

So far so good

Darniaq loves to speak about costs. I don't think that LOTRO was cheap.

Cheap by what standard? 25 mil? 35 mil? I do believe it was relatively cheap by current standards (i.e. the Vangard shitcan)

And Turbine has already wasted a ton of money till now for this to be their very last chance to survive.

I assume you mean AC2.

I don't think they are doing all that well, but, again, we cannot know for sure.

Oh they are in trouble? Perhaps you have some financials ...

Doing better than Vanguard isn't exactly something to be proud of.

Well no. But making a profit is. Better then some others.

Have a nice day! 

In the end, you don't know shit and are just making up assumptions like most everyone else. Just that yours are relatively negative and some others are more positive.

Offer something a bit more substantial and it could be interesting.

/SirBruce off

[CmdrSlack]

This thread needs more MMOGchart.com.   

[Merusk]

No, really! Turbine's hosed! I heard from my nephew's father who was the lead world builder sez that they're fuxored, which is why he left! (Some of this is lies. You figure out what isn't.)

Doomcasting LOTR is funny.  It's a decent enough game (even tho it wasn't for me) that it'll have it's own little niche of fans for a good while.  Turbine just needs to not do anything silly like throw up 20 extra servers based on 2 weeks of sales, hay.

[Hoax]

Why does anyone respond to Hrose?


*posting BONANZA!

Irony has hit you for 999,999,999 damage.

[Count Nerfedalot]

Falconeer said "I don't plan to argue non-existing numbers with anyone right now, but I can say that my server is packed to the point of explosion, and I still have to hear of anyone leaving after the first month. I am sure there are plenty, I still have to meet one though."

Um, what? If they left how would you meet them???

For crazy statistics, how's this: 50% of the people I know IRL who have tried LOTRO have quit already! 

Well, that would be my wife.  I'm still playing, but it's starting to wane.  :-D


And while I'm picking nits, what's WWIIOnline got to do with LOTRO anyway? "TAXI to victory" (TM LTM) came from the phenomenal clusterfuck which was WWIIO's retarded UI impregnated with a horribly mutated game design then dragged half-developed out of the womb with a phenomenally botched launch.   Granted, LOTRO is missing that magic something-or-other that makes people really excited to play the game, but the servers are stable, the UI is competent, the game design is adequate, and the launch was downright smooth.  Oh wait!  Nevermind, the similarities are obvious. They both have "Online" in their names! 

[CmdrSlack]

Hrose is just trying to be "edgy" and "down with the fogie culture."

[sam, an eggplant]

LOTRO had a fantastic launch, and while obviously it will never compete with WoW, it is clearly successful in its own right.

It's just a pity that you can't say the same for DDO. I was really rooting for that game but it never came together. A real shame, because it actually innovated in the genre.

[HRose]

And while I'm picking nits, what's WWIIOnline got to do with LOTRO anyway? "TAXI to victory" (TM LTM)

It's a perfect way to describe a "pie in the sky", the delusional expectations of easy success.

Perfect for Turbine, doesn't even know how to take off but still expect to take over the world.

[Falconeer]

Falconeer said "I don't plan to argue non-existing numbers with anyone right now, but I can say that my server is packed to the point of explosion, and I still have to hear of anyone leaving after the first month. I am sure there are plenty, I still have to meet one though."

Um, what? If they left how would you meet them???

You almost had me :)
I wasn't expecting to meet them in game. I was referring to real life, my small circle of online acquaintances and the intardnet places I use to keep an eye on. So far, not even here I read about anyone not renewing after the first month (of release, not counting betatesters who never purchased the box).
It's by no mean a statistic, just a raw observation. Your 50% quitters observation is as much as valid.

[Numtini]

One million to be successful? One million as a goal?

Ok. Take EQ at its high point. Then take UO at its high point. Then take DAOC at it's high point. Add them all together. Oops still not a million subscribers!

WOW has made everyone crazy. While I don't think LOTRO is a smash hit of the kind they'd like, it's around 175-200k subs. That's a successful sustainable subscriber base. Gives them a revenue between 20 and 30 million dollars a year.

[DraconianOne]

... it's around 175-200k subs. That's a successful sustainable subscriber base. Gives them a revenue between 20 and 30 million dollars a year.

Do you have a source for those figures or is it a guesstimate? (Not being snarky, genuine question).  It would also be interesting to know how many people subbed up for a lifetime too.

[Falconeer]

I would love some actual numbers too (but I think we won't get any untile the eventual next positive milestone). Things we know are the 200k box sold in the first 3 weeks (IIRC, darn where did I read that?) and the 22 packed servers worldwide. I'd say there are more than 200k subscribers at this point, but what the fuck do I know?

[Numtini]

It's based on the usual 20% of subs are on at peak times guestimate using numbers from the social panel. I've seen at least two other people doing social panel counts and we all seem to be coming up with the same concurrency numbers (1600-1900/server). I did some checking of the social panel last night and every one of our guild was present and accounted for. It's the best tool we have.

It might be off by 20% or even 50%. But that still puts it in a certain range--about where you'd guess a successful but not blockbuster game would end up if WOW had never happened.

[Riggswolfe]

I have to jump onto the it's successful but not WoW successful bandwagon and wonder why HROSE is so happy to be doomcasting with only about a month to go. It's already >= AC1 numbers at its peak and AC1 kept Turbine alive until now. Sure they've had misfires along the way that were their own fault (AC2) and the fault of the license holders (DDO- Eberron? Really? Even my local gaming store says Eberron is shit that is being pushed on the public and that the whole "design a new world" thing was a scam and the guy who won had "quit" Wizards about a month before the "contest" /nerd rant off)

The only thing that might kill LOTRO is raiding. I know that sounds weird but if they try to mimic WOW and turn the later levels into a raiding grindfest I think it's going to backfire. The forums and chat channels in-game are filled with anti-WOW and ex-WOW players and the vast majority of them have mentioned raiding as one of the reasons they left WOW and came to LOTRO. I know I sagged when I read about raiding being put into the game and my response was not nearly as violent as some of the players. Right now people are pinning their hopes on "different paths to comparable loot".

[Murgos]

WoW didn't start out at 8 million subscribers, it took a while to get there.  Now, obviously, LotRO will never catch up if their rate of growth is less than or equal to WoW's but that really doesn't mean the game is 'Teh Falure'.

I'm tired of the fallacious, "It didn't beat WoW numbers yet so it failed." thing.  It's just not true in any aspect of business.  General Electric is a larger company the Boeing so does that mean Boeing failed?  I mean, they both make airplanes parts, right?

[CmdrSlack]

WoW didn't start out at 8 million subscribers, it took a while to get there.  Now, obviously, LotRO will never catch up if their rate of growth is less than or equal to WoW's but that really doesn't mean the game is 'Teh Falure'.

I'm tired of the fallacious, "It didn't beat WoW numbers yet so it failed." thing.  It's just not true in any aspect of business.  General Electric is a larger company the Boeing so does that mean Boeing failed?  I mean, they both make airplanes parts, right?

Your logic may kick sand into a WoW-fanboi's vagina.  We don't need that.

[Chimpy]

WoW didn't start out at 8 million subscribers, it took a while to get there.  Now, obviously, LotRO will never catch up if their rate of growth is less than or equal to WoW's but that really doesn't mean the game is 'Teh Falure'.

I'm tired of the fallacious, "It didn't beat WoW numbers yet so it failed." thing.  It's just not true in any aspect of business.  General Electric is a larger company the Boeing so does that mean Boeing failed?  I mean, they both make airplanes parts, right?

Your logic may kick sand into a WoW-fanboi's vagina.  We don't need that.

Fanbois can't see logic at all, even to argue with it, so we are safe.

[Morat20]

And while I'm picking nits, what's WWIIOnline got to do with LOTRO anyway? "TAXI to victory" (TM LTM)

It's a perfect way to describe a "pie in the sky", the delusional expectations of easy success.

Perfect for Turbine, doesn't even know how to take off but still expect to take over the world.

Yeah, I hate to bring this up again -- WHOSE DELUSIONAL EXPECTATIONS? Nobody here thought it was going to be a WoW-killer. The most optimistic estimates were maybe 750k.

Once again, you seem to have come here and started lording it over all of us for being right in an argument somewhere else. Why not go hassle them? Why are you pestering us with it? We don't really care.

LoTRO seems perfectly successful. They had a stable launch, good word-of-mouth, have a solid game, a good IP, and a 6 figure playerbase. They'll do just dandy on that since their costs weren't nearly as high as, say, Sigils. (If anything, LoTRO was probably cheaper than it looks, since Turbine could modify and reuse a lot of in-house experience, tools, designes, etc and such rather than license them or develop them from scratch).

[Nebu]

Is it ok to be stabby about the fact that we all consider LotRO a "good game"?  I think it's a prime example of just how low the bar is being set with regard to MMO's. 

[HaemishM]

Haven't you seen that the MMO genre is basically stuck at 3 years ago in 1998?

Fixed that for you. The MMO MEDIUM (not genre, goddamnit) has been stuck in a rut since Everquest was released. No matter what anyone tells you, there are no second generation MMOG's. WoW is the penultimate first-gen MMO and yet no one has pushed past that first gen. Warhammer will be first gen. Conan maybe MAYBE a second gen if only because of its release on the 360, but that's really only if it breaks the hotkey mash gameplay paradigm. If it's just class + level + mouse gestures, it'll be another shiny first gen MMO.

[sam, an eggplant]

Seems pretty arbitrary to me. What defines the "next generation"? If you base it upon significant innovation, shadowbane, SWG, DDO, tabula rasa, EVE online, ATITD, and conan could all be considered next-gen. Does a game have to be successful to be next-gen? Does it have to be new, even? If WoW ran on the PS3, would it be next-gen? Or are these all meaningless distinctions because there's no clear demarcation in the first place?

[HaemishM]

No, it has to be a different game than what we've seen before. Shadowbane was a diku with PVP and kingdoms in it, much like DAoC, only full-on PVP and much less PVE. Eve followed more of the UO skill-based formula, though it gets points for being a one server game. It's mechanics were mostly EQ-esque (target, hit buttons, rinse repeat). SWG was UO with pewpew lasers. DDO was instanced diku with a little twitch.

It has to make the medium stretch beyond the bounds of what its done in such a way as to feel different, not just be a graphic spit shine on the old formula. Planetside is about the only mass market thing that could even be considered a second-gen MMOG, because it added a new gameplay genre to the MMO medium. I'd put Starport and A Tale in the Desert in that category as well. Everything else has been CRPG's built either on a diku foundation or a skill-based UO-style foundation.

Tabula Rasa MAY end up being a second-gen game, but we'll find out when we find out just what kind of game it is. The hype is unclear.