NFL Playoffs Pick 'Em

[sidereal]

(2 for 4 so far)

Ugh.  This week has too many (obvious!1!) games for me to be comfortable.   3 lines over a touchdown. I'm going to pick a landmine game just so I can look brilliant.  Next year we need to pick against the spread.

St. Louis.  I fucking hate St. Louis, but Atlanta's record is way, way out of line with their stats, and their passing defense is worse than Seattle's.  Hello.

Pittsburgh.  The commercial NFLtv was running during the wild card games was absolutely fucking brilliant.  Top 10 all time.  "Honey, who's that quarterback the Steelers took in the draft?   Rothl-something.   Nice pick, Cowher".

Philly.  The Rush Limbaugh special game.  Let's agree that he's banned from ever credibly discussing football again.

Patriots.  The Colts are favored in this one?  Are you kidding me?  In Foxboro?  Yeah, the passing game is great, but Corey Dillon just called and he said he doesn't give a rat's ass.  Unless someone drugs Belichick, this is an easy $100 towards an anniversary present.

[Paelos]

Patriots.  The Colts are favored in this one?  Are you kidding me?  In Foxboro?  Yeah, the passing game is great, but Corey Dillon just called and he said he doesn't give a rat's ass.  Unless someone drugs Belichick, this is an easy $100 towards an anniversary present.

You're on crack. It doesn't matter where the Colts play. Welcome to the most dominant offense in the NFL. The Pats won a squeaker almost four months ago against the Colts because James fumbled the ball twice, and even then the Colts came close to pulling it out. The Pats line can't get to Peyton, they only sacked him once in a game they should have won handily.

The Colts aren't the same team they were in September, they will crush the Patriots.

EDIT: I'll just toss my picks in here now.

Atlanta
Colts
Vikings
Steelers

[sidereal]

It doesn't matter where the Colts play. Welcome to the most dominant offense in the NFL.

Yes, and last year the most dominant offense in the NFL was the Kansas City Chiefs.  Unfortunately, they're only allowed to play on one side of the ball, and New England has the most dominant defense in the NFL.

[Shockeye]

I'm going with:

Rams (because you never are quite sure what Atlanta team is going to show up)

Vikings (because I'm from MN and TO is out)

Patriots (because they're the champs and the Colts haven't shown me much in outdoor stadiums in January)

Steelers (because I'm on the Rothschild... DavidLeeRothBurger... whatever bandwagon)

[Rasix]

and New England has the most dominant defense in the NFL

You're on crack.  Have you seen that defensive backfield? They'll be starting Teddy Bruschi at corner if anyone else gets hurt.  They've been winning DESPITE starting two of the worst corners in the league (Earthwind Mooreland, Asante Samuels).  Hell, I think Troy Brown does a better job than those two.

Peyton on all cylinders will score on them at will.  If they don't find a way to disrupt him. Here's a hint, either Bruschi(is he hurt? I don't remember)  or Vrabel should be blitzing on every down.  Still, you've gotta tip your hat to Romeo Crenel for actually winning games with that torn up defense.

Either this game is the Colts winning by about 30 points or it's going to be a last second, who has the ball, type of thing.  But the Colts are favored right now for a reason: they're the scariest offensive monster to hit the game since the 99 Vikings or greatest-show-on-turf Rams.

[Paelos]

It doesn't matter where the Colts play. Welcome to the most dominant offense in the NFL.

Yes, and last year the most dominant offense in the NFL was the Kansas City Chiefs.  Unfortunately, they're only allowed to play on one side of the ball, and New England has the most dominant defense in the NFL.

What are you basing that on? They are 15th ranked in passing yardage, and the only thing they have top tier on D is sacks. Then again, they couldn't sack Manning worth a damn, so that's moot. They average just under 4 yards per carry on the run D. Most of their great defense stats come from games against teams with 6 wins or less.

[Shockeye]

And if a freak snowstorm comes in which covers the field in snow and prevents passing reliably, then all the better for the Patriots.

[sidereal]

What are you basing that on?

PA, as I was being lazy.  
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ramblings.php?p=2194&cat=3">Smarter analysis puts them at 6th.  I'll take them in Foxboro with points.

[Margalis]

The Colts are bigtime losers to the Patriots. Coulda woulda shoulda, they find a way to lose. If only Edge hadn't fumbled, if only Peyton hadn't been sacked, if only Peyton didn't get all scared and confused...

At this point they have to prove they can beat NE. Until then, I'm going to keep picking NE.

[Paelos]

You are all pissing on my dreams of a Colts-Steelers matchup, and for that I am sad. However, the game is yet to be played, and I'm betting NE folds faster than the Flash on laundry day.

[Rasix]

One thing I will give to the Pats, they didn't take the last week or two off once their fate was decided.  Got to love a coach that believes momentum means more than sheltering your stars like a bunch of porcelain figurines.

I have a feeling that either the Falcons or Eagles are going to come out flat and just get pasted.

Edit: Yes, Falcons.

[WayAbvPar]

I have a feeling that either the Hawks or Eagles are going to come out flat and just get pasted.

Hawks already did...I am guessing you mean Falcons? I hope so...I am one of the few people on the planet  that think Vick is a shitty QB. I really am not sure he is bright enough to play the position.  He  gets by on his extraordinary athleticism.

[Rasix]

I think Vick is over-rated.  At his best, he's a mediocre passer that can create havok when he runs.  At his worst, he's a turnover machine that can single handedly make it impossible for his team to win.  He's got the passing accuracy of Jonathan Quinn with a broken thumb when he's not on his game.  The problem is, Vick is rarely average. He's either winning the game for his team or doing his darn hardest to lose it.  I think he would have been a better receiver or back, but everytime someone hits him hard he's out of commission.   A truly puzzling player is Michael Vick.

But they're a good team with him, and a god-aweful, horrible team without him.  So, it's hard to argue his value.  Of course, this year they've had a game changing defense that's been able to absorb his craptacular games.  And they're in the NFC.

[Paelos]

Atlanta will dominant the Rams. You know they suck. Kerney (ie. NFL sack leader) will eat Bulger's lunch considering how shitty that O-line is.

Oh, and question Vick's ability at your own peril. Pick the Rams, go ahead, I DARE YOU!

[Margalis]

Vick was an amazing college player. I don't even like college football at all but he was truly incredible. But in college you have things like teams running the option...college is a different game. If Vick can become a passer who can run, rather than a runner that can pass, he can be great. Right now he is a great athlete, not a great player.

[Nebu]

If Vick could put a football in a thimble at 60 yards like Manning... oh, the possibilities.

[El Gallo]

Holy shit I am a dumbass, and started a new thread because I never look at stickies.  It's a whole new world looking at these things.

I, for one, am confident that Ben Roethlisjesus will lead the Steelers out of the desert and back to the promised land. Along the way, he will bring peace on Earth and goodwill to all people. Additionally, he will be a catalyst for the recognition of gay marriage, because men everywhere will realize that if their love for Roethlisjesus is wrong, they don't ever want to be right.

OK, on to the picks
AFC first, because it's all that matters:

Colts @ Patriots: Obvious game of the week pick. Can Payton win in New England? The matchup everyone is talking about is the Pats D vs the Colts O. The Pats are missing their top two cornerbacks, but are the best team at disguising defenses and have owned Manning in the past. However, there is also the question of whether the Colts D can stop the Pats offense, new and improved with a real, live running back. I have trouble seeing the Colts stop the run without selling out to the pass, and even Pretty Boy Brady can beat single coverage. I'm calling this one for the Pats.

Jets @ Steelers: Jets played the Steelers pretty close during their regular season meeting. Since then, the Steelers have gotten healthier and the Jets have gotten unhealthier. Steelers 57 to zero, only because Roethlisjesus takes a knee every snap in the second half.

(lol)NFC(lol)

Vikings @ Eagles: Vikes coming off an emotional win, while the Eagles starters haven't played in the last month during which they moped about the loss of TO. Momentum is wearing purple. The more important fact is that, unlike the Vikings and every other team in the NFC, the Eagles have legitimate, playoff-caliber NFL players on both sides of the ball. Eagles win, and it won't be close.

Rams @ Falcons: Greatest Show on Turf vs The Latest Made-For-TV Quarterback sensation, Kordell Vick. Winner gets a chance to win the NFC Championship game when the Eagles perform their annual choke routine. I haven't seen these teams play enough to make a remotely educated guess. Falcons have a crappy offense and a good defense and the Rams have a crappy defense and a good offense. My gut tells me that a better defense + a week off gives the Falcons the edge.

[Ethic]

Short and sweet: Colts, Steelers, Eagles, Falcons

[El Gallo]

Pittsburgh hasn't played the Colts, and all who have faced them with such attitudes have fallen handily.

Here are the Colts' results from this year, copied from ESPN:

SCHEDULE/RESULTS
Date Opponent Time/Results
Thu. Sep. 9 @New England Loss 27-24  
Sun. Sep. 19 @Tennessee Win 31-17  
Sun. Sep. 26 Green Bay Win 45-31  
Sun. Oct. 3 @Jacksonville Win 24-17  
Sun. Oct. 10 Oakland Win 35-14  
BYE WEEK
Sun. Oct. 24 Jacksonville Loss 27-24  
Sun. Oct. 31 @Kansas City Loss 45-35  
Mon. Nov. 8 Minnesota Win 31-28  
Sun. Nov. 14 Houston Win 49-14  
Sun. Nov. 21 @Chicago Win 41-10  
Thu. Nov. 25 @Detroit Win 41-9  
Sun. Dec. 5 Tennessee Win 51-24  
Sun. Dec. 12 @Houston Win 23-14  
Sun. Dec. 19 Baltimore Win 20-10  
Sun. Dec. 26 San Diego Win 34-31 (OT)
Sun. Jan. 2 @Denver Loss 33-14  

They played legitimate defenses 5 times: The first 4 games were against the Pats, the Jags twice and the Ravens.  In those games they scored 24, 24, 24 and 20 points.  The one game they had a good offensive output against a good defense was the overtime game where the Charers collapsed.  That game was also on turf.  Most of their gaudy offense seems to have occured in 40+ point blowouts against shitty defenses

[WayAbvPar]

After my 1-3 performance last week, take these picks with a truckload of salt...

Patriots
Steelers
Vikings
Falcons

[Rasix]

Now, I will get any game that's on Saturday wrong.  Time to go pure gut on this.

Colts. (Manning's due v. the Pats.)
Steelers. (Jets just don't have the offense for this one)

Vikings. (not seeing what your team can do for 2 weeks when you just lost your star is a mistake.)
Falcons (the D will get it done. 50/50 chance Vick gets KO'd in this though)

[MrHat]

Colts @ Pats - Pats win - Defense Defense Defense.  All it takes is 2 sacks to beat the Colts, or 2 interceptions.

Jets @ Steelers - Steelers win - Defense Defense Defense.  Rothelisburger is only good because he throws the ball 10 times a game.  Blitzburg baby Blitzburg.

Vikings @ Eagles - Eagles win - Defense Defense Defense.  McNabb/Westbrook connection has shown they can win w/out using TO, but it's the defense that's going to win it.

Rams @ Falcons - Falcons win - Defense Defense Defense.  Granted, this only wins if Vick doesn't throw away the ball 4 times.

[Paelos]

Now, I will get any game that's on Saturday wrong.  Time to go pure gut on this.

Colts. (Manning's due v. the Pats.)
Steelers. (Jets just don't have the offense for this one)

Vikings. (not seeing what your team can do for 2 weeks when you just lost your star is a mistake.)
Falcons (the D will get it done. 50/50 chance Vick gets KO'd in this though)

Copycat :p

[Ardent]

Short and sweet: Colts, Steelers, Eagles, Falcons

Agreed, Agreed, TO is a stupendously overrated cockgobbling blowhard and I would take the Colts' 5th or 6th receiver over him any day, Agreed

[Rasix]

Short and sweet: Colts, Steelers, Eagles, Falcons

Agreed, Agreed, TO is a stupendously overrated cockgobbling blowhard and I would take the Colts' 5th or 6th receiver over him any day, Agreed

Have you seen the pussies they're left with in action?  Pinkston pisses his pants on routes where he might be grazed.  I think most NFL kickers would run a crossing route with more balls than that coward.

Westbrook probably makes or breaks this game, not the remaining Eagle receivers. They all suck.

And hate im as a person, but TO is probably the single most game changing receiver in the NFL.  Moss comes close when he's healthy, but he doesn't rip through db tackles like Owens does.  I hate that motherfucker but you just have to give him props for how he's played this year.  Barring injury and the existence of Peyton Manning he'd be my NFL mvp (well, Culpepper's been fantastic too).

[Dark Vengeance]

Rams at Atlanta - I'm taking the Rams over the Falcons. The Falcons D can be tough, and their offense explosive....but you never know which team is going to show up on gameday. Will we see the D that fell apart against KC? The offense that melted down against lowly Arizona? If so, look for the Rams to get it done. Also, aside from noise, playing in the Georgia Dome is the next best thing to home field for Bulger & Co.

Vikings at Philadelphia - The Vikings are playing well, and the Eagles shouldn't have rested the final 2 weeks of the regular season, especially without TO. However, their defense is still very tough, and the offense was good enough to make the NFC Championship game 3 years running without TO. Not to mention that the Vikings couldn't stop an opposing offense if you gave them a remote control. You've also got a dome team outdoors in January, which often doesn't bode well. I'll take Philly.

Colts at New England - This same rule applies when you put Manning in Foxboro. The Pat's D is playing tough, and if they were healthy, I'd give them a shot at holding Indy's firepower in check....but they aren't. As banged up as they are in the secondary, you have to plan on a lot of offense. Brady leads a much-improved offense over last season, and Indy's D is suspect....I'll take Indy in a shootout, and bet the over.

Jets at Pittsburgh - Can Curtis Martin keep this up? I don't see it against the Steeler D. Pennington will keep that 8th man out of the box, but I don't like the way the Jets line matches up against Pittsburgh's front seven. Cowher will grind it out on the ground, which should open up opportunities for Big Ben in play action. My gut says to bet against the streak that the Steelers and Roethlisberger have been riding, and screams for me not to trust a rookie QB in the playoffs....but I have to ignore it. The Steelers are just that good, and Ben has some the best offensive weapons I can imagine for a rookie QB. Bust out the Terrible Towels, folks, Pittsburgh takes this one.

Bring the noise.
Cheers............

[Ardent]

And hate im as a person, but TO is probably the single most game changing receiver in the NFL.  Moss comes close when he's healthy, but he doesn't rip through db tackles like Owens does.  I hate that motherfucker but you just have to give him props for how he's played this year.

I think he just appears to be better than he is because he has a real quarterback throwing to him this year, and as you pointed out, surrounded by the other receivers on that team he glows in comparison.

I think the anomaly of this year is over, the Eagles are over, and next year TO fades back into being the mediocrity he is.

You've also got a dome team outdoors in January, which often doesn't bode well. I'll take Philly.

The Vikings sure didn't seem bothered by the Green Bay weather last week. Then again, it helps when Brett Favre is trying his best to throw as many interceptions to you as he can within a 60 minute game. I don't think McNabb will grant them the same courtesy.

Watching the Eagles crumble against the Panthers last year was just an absolutely beautiful thing. And nobody thought that could happen in the Philly cold.

If Minnesota can pull this one out, that guarantees a dome game for the NFC championship, which should be very interesting.