Title: Flight MH370 Post by: MahrinSkel on March 14, 2014, 10:51:48 PM Starting a topic on this because it has reached the point where it is unlikely that the plane just crashed, because with the length of time that has passed debris from the crash should have been found. The question then is: WTF?
What's known is that last Saturday, the plane took off from Kuala Lumpur heading to Beijing. Shortly after it reached cruising altitude, the telemetry systems and radar transponder were apparently shut off (14 minutes apart). Malaysian military radars indicate that it then climbed rapidly to 45,000 feet and turned west. An automated system that relays engine telemetry data continued to send "pings" to the satellite for another 2-3 hours, analysis of these signals seem to indicate that the plane flew to the Bay of Bengal/Andaman Sea, then turned either northwest or southwest (presumably calculated from signal strength and loss of signal data, hence the lack of precision). At this point, the physical search is moving to the Indian Ocean southwest of Malaysia, as being the only place for a crash that hasn't already been eliminated. This is not consistent with any accident scenario anyone has been able to come up with. The problem is, it's hard to come up with another scenario that makes any sense, either. If the plane was hijacked, why, and where the hell did they go with it? This is a big aircraft, and it needs a large runway to land (and an even larger one if you ever want to take off again). 239 people (minus the number of hijackers, plus the crew) is a *lot* of people to control. It was only fueled for the trip to Beijing, making it's range considerably less than the 9,000nm maximum for the type (central Asia to northern Australia is about the limit). I've been puzzling over this for the last couple of days, and I can't get any answers that really make sense to me. If they wanted hostages for political or financial purposes, why haven't we gotten a video of them and a list of demands? If they wanted the plane for some Tom Clancy plot, why have they made "Where's the plane?" the number one question for every intelligence service in the world, guaranteeing that every 777 approaching off schedule or flight-plan gets scrutinized? If they wanted to steal something that was on the plane, did they kill the passengers? That would be stupid, if you stole a billion dollars, they'll chase you for years, if you kill 240+ people, they'll chase you *forever*. I suppose it is possible there was a secret precious metals shipment on the plane (China has been buying the stuff like crazy), and the plane was hard-landed on an empty island somewhere while the thieves get clear, and the people will turn up eventually. Otherwise, I can't come up with an answer that isn't at "lost in a dimensional vortex" levels of unlikely. --Dave Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Kitsune on March 15, 2014, 12:41:22 AM Huh, that's weird. I honestly hadn't been paying attention, with the initial news I thought, "Welp, plane crash." and didn't bother reading deeply into subsequent news. The plane being in the air for that length of time definitely sounds like shenanigans after such a selective equipment failure, but I can't think of what they could've done with it that would not have been found by now aside from crash it in the ocean somewhere.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: SurfD on March 15, 2014, 02:45:24 AM Havent looked much into this, other then browsing through the related thread that popped up on MMO-Champ a while back, but I seem to recall some speculation that there was an oddly high number of passengers on the plain who worked in relatively high level positions in major research and technology companies. Like, big minds from IBM, and the like. There was some speculation that someone might have wanted to kidnap these people for their technical know-how. However, that was getting pretty deep into "major-cold-war-brewing" type conspiracy theory territory.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: TheWalrus on March 15, 2014, 02:45:52 AM The first day I heard of it, my dad and I were talking and I said there were some people on board that plane that somebody wanted alive. It's easier to disappear a plane that several witnesses. I stand by my initial assertion. No evidence, it just seems bout right for the area.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: satael on March 15, 2014, 03:11:13 AM The missing Malaysia Airliner flew more than six and a half hours after its last communication with air traffic control. (http://kazu.org/post/missing-jet-flew-6-12-hours-after-contact-was-lost) Seems very unlikely that this can be explained as an accident though it also sounds strange that a plane of that size could land anywhere unnoticed (and any terrorists associated with it would announce their "achievement"). Maybe it's just the pilot going off the deep end but you'd think that the rest of the crew would have noticed something after the plane went silent.
map of how far the plane could have flown in the 6 hours after the last communication Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: TheWalrus on March 15, 2014, 03:57:18 AM I'm betting somebody's government and that's why there's been no demands. Because there won't be.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: ajax34i on March 15, 2014, 05:06:08 AM You're assuming sophisticated hijackers. The pilots could have tried to explain the fuel situation or that a heavy can't land on just any runway, but faced with threat to passengers they may have decided to just obey the demands for a while and fly west with transponders off. Then the plane ran out of fuel and went into the ocean, or crashed on the landing attempt who knows where.
I'd search off (and on) the coast of Somalia. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Teleku on March 15, 2014, 05:33:37 AM For the transponders to have been switched off in a way the hijackers could tell, leads me to believe they were technically sophisticated, and knew what they were doing. Hell, almost seems likely that the pilot or co-pilot was in on it. Doesn't mean they didn't fuck up and the plane crashed in the ocean, but I'm willing to bet they understood exactly what the the plane could do.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Merusk on March 15, 2014, 05:53:14 AM Don't forget the newest evidence that the plane ascended and then descended very quickly after the transponder was turned off. (The descent numbers are considered very incorrect as it would have had to do a nose dive at ~450mph)
There's any number of theories out there. Terrorism is only one and not even the most likely at this point. Decompression and a faulty o2 system are more likely than terrorists kidnapping ~300 people. Not that conspiracy lovers haven't worked that one out already. Right down to hiding the people successfully, keeping them off of any mobile device while flying over other islands and also having modified an abandoned WW2 airstrip to later use the plane in a later attack. As if there's a non-zero chance of a stray 777 being shot down. That's a straight out of COBRA level :uhrr: plan. If it WAS terrorism I'm more inclined to believe that someone had a gun, shot a hole in the plane and a decompression event made everyone pass out because the terrorists wouldn't let them wear the o2 masks. The plane then flew on for hours before crashing. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Zetleft on March 15, 2014, 06:15:22 AM I've been thinking of this (http://m.imdb.com/title/tt0097883/) since day one :grin:
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Lantyssa on March 15, 2014, 06:16:38 AM It's the Russians. Crimea wasn't enough for them, so now they're stealing people.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: KallDrexx on March 15, 2014, 06:53:27 AM I think trying to figure this out is futile from our end. The problem is there is wayy too much conflicting information coming out that just makes no sense.
Hijacking makes absolutely noooo sense. The cabin doors are very tightly locked and there's no way hijackers would have gotten into the cockpit before the pilots transmitted a distress signal. Also, the fact that Malaysia's government last night said it's not just a theory that there was a hijacking, then immediately came out and said that what they just said wasn't true doesnt help matters. Hijacking also doesn't make sense if it's true that the oil rig worker saw the plane on fire flying through the sky. Loss of oxygen causing everyone to pass out doesn't really make sense because the automated pings the plane sends sends that data so we would have seen low oxygen warnings. Flying west over Malaysia makes absolutely no sense, because it seems inconcievable to me that not one military radar would have picked that up and Malaysia would keep floundering in the South China sea (and it would take the US to say hey fuck faces, go to the indian ocean). There's just a ridiculous amount of unknowns, and the problem is this is becoming a HUGE international strategic play on who can find it first, who has the better satellite and radar technologies to be able to track this down, China trying to score points against the Malaysian government, etc... *edit* Also those altitude readings make no sense. It claims the plane went up to 45,000ft (even though the plane has a ceiling of 43,000 ft) and then went wayyy down at over 450 MPH towards the ground and managed to stabilize. That seems highly unlikely and it more sounds like the engines were transmitting bad data (giving credence to a failure of some kind). Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Khaldun on March 15, 2014, 07:02:01 AM Am I the only one who has read the Herge Tintin adventure "Flight 704"? Because it is almost fucking eerie how close some of that is to this case.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: 01101010 on March 15, 2014, 08:17:34 AM (http://i.imgur.com/GnxPSab.jpg)
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Lakov_Sanite on March 15, 2014, 08:34:46 AM I'm not saying it was aliens but....
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: NowhereMan on March 15, 2014, 08:42:07 AM So, Malaysians are pretty sure it was hijacked (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/15/flight-mh370-malaysians-convinced-missing-airliner-was-hijacked). I really thought it would be a technical fault and was pretty surprised to see this, although hijacking gone wrong may make more sense in terms of what we do know. However the Malaysian authorities have also pretty consistently managed to deny knowledge of anything before issuing a definitive statement just before announcing that their previous definitive statement was wrong and they've gone back to not announcing anything until they're certain. So I'm half expecting to find out tomorrow that they've found some recording of a distress call reporting a technical fault or something.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: slog on March 15, 2014, 08:43:29 AM http://vietnam.craigslist.org/for/4372477162.html
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 15, 2014, 10:47:52 AM The flight path is likely to be false
1. the machine didn't have enough fuel to be in the air for an additional seven hours after contact was lost 2. They derived this from engine data automatically transmitted by a monitoring system which only transmits data as long as the engine is running. This just means that the engine was still running 6 1/2 hours in. Which could have been the case if the machine was already on the ground and not travelling at 900 kph. What people currently know or think is likely to have occurred. - The radio and all automatic transponder systems that can be turned off from the coclpit have been turned off - Not all of those systems have been turned off at the same time. The transponder was turned off first, the ACARS ten minutes after for example. - The machine changed direction and dropped below radar visibility - It was last seen a few hundred miles west of its last position and hundreds of miles off its flight path by a military radar - the engine was still on 6 1/2 hours after it vanished. - the plane must have deliberately chosen a flight path that kept it out of range from military and civillian radar installations because it hasn't been seen since. There are two likely theories floated around 1. The plane was still in the air when the last engine data was transmitted, which means that it was in the air until fuel ran out and then crashed. 2. It was already on the ground by the time the last transmission came in at which point the engine was turned off (the system only transmits when the engine is running) Some sources now point to the Muslim Uyghur ethnic group as possible perpetrators because allegedly one passenger on board of MH 370 was from the Xinjiang province of China and one of the triangulated flight paths from the picture in this thread would bring them very close to that region. It seems very likely though at this time that the machine was hijacked or stolen Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: IainC on March 15, 2014, 11:12:51 AM 2. They derived this from engine data automatically transmitted by a monitoring system which only transmits data as long as the engine is running. This just means that the engine was still running 6 1/2 hours in. Which could have been the case if the machine was already on the ground and not travelling at 900 kph. I know that a lot of statements have been walked back or flat-out retracted as inaccurate, but the last I heard was that Rolls-Royce had agreed that the reports about data being sent from the engines were false. Did I miss an update that contradicted that? Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 15, 2014, 11:14:51 AM BTW: every expert interviewed is currently stating that even if the machine was hijacked it likely crashed because it couldn't have landed anywhere without it being noticed.
Which brings me to the conclusion that it most likely has landed and nobody knows where :why_so_serious: Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: K9 on March 15, 2014, 11:17:36 AM I'm fairly amazed that this could pass over some of the most militarised airspace without being noticed; the projections of this plane landing somewhere in Kyrgystan or India seem remarkable. Likewise, if this had crashed on land, surely there'd be some fuck-off great fire that someone would have noticed by now?
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: IainC on March 15, 2014, 11:21:16 AM I'm fairly amazed that this could pass over some of the most militarised airspace without being noticed; the projections of this plane landing somewhere in Kyrgystan or India seem remarkable. Likewise, if this had crashed on land, surely there'd be some fuck-off great fire that someone would have noticed by now? A Learjet crashed in New Hampshire back in 1996 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_New_Hampshire_Learjet_crash) and it took 3 years to find it. Granted a Learjet is a lot smaller than a 777 but then New Hampshire is also a lot smaller than the Indian Ocean. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 15, 2014, 11:27:42 AM I know that a lot of statements have been walked back or flat-out retracted as inaccurate, but the last I heard was that Rolls-Royce had agreed that the reports about data being sent from the engines were false. Did I miss an update that contradicted that? Yes. Although they are not stating which system made the contact (probably to not tip off the hijackers) at the press conference the Malaysian PM stated that the last reported satellite communication with MH 370 was Saturday at 8:11 am Malaysian local time. Unable to confirm precise location of the plane when it last made contact with satellites. However, based on new data, the aviation authorities of Malaysia, and the international counterparts, the last communication of MH 370 was in 1 of 2 possible corridors: Northern (border of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to Northern Thailand) or Southern (from Indonesia to southern Indian Ocean). Rolls Royce and Boeing also stated that even though the engine reporting system wasn't active it was still sending 'pings' . That's because they ship every engine with that system and activating it is possible at any time once the airline subscribes to the service. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 15, 2014, 11:30:46 AM The always called it satellite communication with MH 370 implying that it was a direct transmission from the flight to some other system and not a satellite image or something like that.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Venkman on March 15, 2014, 11:39:07 AM If they wanted hostages for political or financial purposes, why haven't we gotten a video of them and a list of demands? If they wanted the plane for some Tom Clancy plot, why have they made "Where's the plane?" the number one question for every intelligence service in the world, guaranteeing that every 777 approaching off schedule or flight-plan gets scrutinized? If they wanted to steal something that was on the plane, did they kill the passengers? That would be stupid, if you stole a billion dollars, they'll chase you for years, if you kill 240+ people, they'll chase you *forever*. This whole paragraph comes straight from Die Hard, starting with the Detective Robinson asking about demands and culminating in Hans explaining why he had to blow up the building :-)Around Wednesday night I was thinking a TWA 800 scenario where it was accidentally (or "accidentally") shot down and nobody wanted to fess up to it. But now I'm leaning botched hijacking and a crash. Queue DB Cooper. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: calapine on March 15, 2014, 11:51:29 AM I know that a lot of statements have been walked back or flat-out retracted as inaccurate, but the last I heard was that Rolls-Royce had agreed that the reports about data being sent from the engines were false. Did I miss an update that contradicted that? Yes. Although they are not stating which system made the contact (probably to not tip off the hijackers) at the press conference the Malaysian PM stated that the last reported satellite communication with MH 370 was Saturday at 8:11 am Malaysian local time. Unable to confirm precise location of the plane when it last made contact with satellites. However, based on new data, the aviation authorities of Malaysia, and the international counterparts, the last communication of MH 370 was in 1 of 2 possible corridors: Northern (border of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to Northern Thailand) or Southern (from Indonesia to southern Indian Ocean). Rolls Royce and Boeing also stated that even though the engine reporting system wasn't active it was still sending 'pings' . That's because they ship every engine with that system and activating it is possible at any time once the airline subscribes to the service. The always called it satellite communication with MH 370 implying that it was a direct transmission from the flight to some other system and not a satellite image or something like that. According to what I read the last engine data was from ACARS at 01:07 via satcom. ACARS was turned of at some point later (or at least didn't make any reports), but the satellite connection it uses (via british INMARSAT) stayed active and the last stay-alive-ping was received 7 hours after take-off. Which is sort of mind blowing. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 15, 2014, 12:00:13 PM What angers me because no journalist has asked it yet is:
According to experts the plane couldn't have landed anywhere or crashed on land because it would very likely have been spotted already. At the same time though the same plane that basically every country on earth is looking for can be in the air for seven hours after they've lost contact without it being spotted and that's totally likely. Yeah, right. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: calapine on March 15, 2014, 12:09:57 PM I'll add some info for all those who haven't following this too closely :-)
This is the known flight path of MH370. The first leg is the normal route, before the transponder was turned off. The subsequent lines are the path of an active radar contact the Malaysian military tracked and believes to be the plane. (http://i.imgur.com/ONLhHim.png) This second image is the now assumed flight direction based on analyzing the satcom pings received for another 6-7 hours. This was most likely down by calculating the signal runtime or signal strength, thus two different possible paths. (http://i.imgur.com/92h4XUJ.jpg) Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Teleku on March 15, 2014, 12:14:33 PM What Im kind of amazed at is that you apparently can turn off the transponder. Seems like the kind of thing you'd want to make impossible to turn off regardless of what a man with a gun to his head would like to do. I mean, is there any scenario at all where your want a large commercial jet liner flying anywhere without the ability to easily be tracked?
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: MahrinSkel on March 15, 2014, 12:16:58 PM What angers me because no journalist has asked it yet is: It's a big sky, and as a former radar tech, I can tell you that civilian radars and radar operators are completely dependent on the "synthetic" radar of the transponder system, turn that off and you're invisible. Military radars are different, but don't have nearly the coverage. If you avoided military installations and certain borders (Iran and Pakistan are probably out as destinations, for example) they'd never see you.According to experts the plane couldn't have landed anywhere or crashed on land because it would very likely have been spotted already. At the same time though the same plane that basically every country on earth is looking for can be in the air for seven hours after they've lost contact without it being spotted and that's totally likely. Yeah, right. --Dave Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: calapine on March 15, 2014, 12:23:16 PM What angers me because no journalist has asked it yet is: According to experts the plane couldn't have landed anywhere or crashed on land because it would very likely have been spotted already. At the same time though the same plane that basically every country on earth is looking for can be in the air for seven hours after they've lost contact without it being spotted and that's totally likely. Yeah, right. The Malaysians already look back in that regard. They let an unknown, un-cooperative contact cross their entire territory (over land) and didn't bother/weren't able to launch QRA fighters. After leaving Malaysian airspace and radar cover it's normal the planes location is unknown. So it either crashed while over sea or something went wrong again. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 15, 2014, 12:36:41 PM Marin, that was exactly my point. If it could have flown for seven hours without anybody noticing then it could bloody well also have landed/crashed on land without anyone noticing it.
It took Malaysia five days to realize and confirm that an unidentified radar contact by its own military was in fact MH 370 and even if it stayed over water the flight would have crossed a lot of civil and military radar installations on its way westwards. The fact of the matter is simply that they don't know wherever the fuck that plane is at the moment. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: calapine on March 15, 2014, 12:45:09 PM The fact of the matter is simply that they don't know wherever the fuck that plane is at the moment. I think that is a given :wink: Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: MahrinSkel on March 15, 2014, 12:45:45 PM Yeah, I tried working out where you could have flown and landed the aircraft, and I came up with a course that went north over the Himalayas, lots of nothing out there to make an unrecoverable landing, some former Soviet military installations in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan that it could have reached. But then you're getting into a much larger plot. Anyway, military radar coverage of the Himalaya region is shit, especially over the Myanmar/Bangladesh portions, and once you were past them you are truly in the ass end of the universe. Not many people, and communication in and out of the region is pitiful (forget cell coverage, most of these areas don't even have wired phone lines).
--Dave Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: calapine on March 15, 2014, 12:52:49 PM Yeah, I tried working out where you could have flown and landed the aircraft, and I came up with a course that went north over the Himalayas, lots of nothing out there to make an unrecoverable landing, some former Soviet military installations in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan that it could have reached. But then you're getting into a much larger plot. Anyway, military radar coverage of the Himalaya region is shit, especially over the Myanmar/Bangladesh portions, and once you were past them you are truly in the ass end of the universe. Not many people, and communication in and out of the region is pitiful (forget cell coverage, most of these areas don't even have wired phone lines). --Dave Well, if you cross Bangladesch and then turn left towards the Himalaya that produces exactly the satellite signal path they released.* (http://i.imgur.com/92h4XUJ.jpg) Edit: I think we just know too little. Reminds me of the AF447 flight I followed when it happened. Lot's of theories, no one could understand how the plane just vanished and it the end it was basically two competent pilots crashing a functional plane into the water. Edit2: * I expressed myself sloppy, sorry. Those lines are not a "flightpath" (or a number of tracks) but a possible position line for the last ping received from the satcom. Ie. the last estimated position sits somewhere on these red lines. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 15, 2014, 01:20:05 PM Yeah but with AF 447 they knew pretty early that it crashed and where it crashed. The mystery was how it crashed and that was only solved once the flight recorder was found two years later.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: calapine on March 15, 2014, 01:31:02 PM Yeah but with AF 447 they knew pretty early that it crashed and where it crashed. The mystery was how it crashed and that was only solved once the flight recorder was found two years later. Yep, and until then lots of speculations but not one guessed the actual cause. Just trying to say it's all a bit groping in the dark until there is more information available. Edit (again): As you mentioned fuel running out earlier: Just read that Malaysia Airlines confirmed the machine was tanked for an 8 hour flight. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: 01101010 on March 15, 2014, 01:39:35 PM I always thought black boxes on planes had beacons that triggered automatically in a crash.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: KallDrexx on March 15, 2014, 01:41:56 PM I always thought black boxes on planes had beacons that triggered automatically in a crash. They do but they only have 30 days of battery life, and if the black box is under the ocean the signal won't get very far from where it sunk. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: calapine on March 15, 2014, 01:44:00 PM I always thought black boxes on planes had beacons that triggered automatically in a crash. AFAIK only an acoustic beacon that triggers on water contact, but no radio signal. Edit: I type too slow. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: MahrinSkel on March 15, 2014, 01:45:59 PM I always thought black boxes on planes had beacons that triggered automatically in a crash. They do, but they are short range, you have to get an appropriate receiver within a few dozen miles, then triangulate.Anyway, here's a more useful version (http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/03/MH370%20onward%20map.jpeg) on the last possible location of the signal to the satellite. (http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/03/MH370%20onward%20map.jpeg) Note that this is not a course, but that when the last "ping" was received, the plane was at a point somewhere on those lines. No idea what the margin for error is (how wide the lines should be considered to be, could be a hundred miles). --Dave Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Numtini on March 15, 2014, 02:36:39 PM What Im kind of amazed at is that you apparently can turn off the transponder. Seems like the kind of thing you'd want to make impossible to turn off regardless of what a man with a gun to his head would like to do. I mean, is there any scenario at all where your want a large commercial jet liner flying anywhere without the ability to easily be tracked? Patrick Smith/Ask the Pilot addressed that. It's because if there's a short or it's broadcasting incorrect information, you want to be able to turn it off. Also, as I remind my users constantly, if it's not working, you shut it down and restart it. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: MahrinSkel on March 15, 2014, 03:21:57 PM I keep coming back to Tajikistan/Kyrgyzstan. If we assume that the plane was flying the whole 7 hours until the satellite pings stopped, and it was heading *to* somewhere rather than flying some kind of eccentric loops, that's about where you would wind up. I think it's a fair bet that whoever was shutting down communications didn't know about the engine telemetry system, or did know about it but also knew that Malaysia Air hadn't contracted for the monitoring service from Rolls Royce and assumed that meant the system was disabled. That implies a level of information that is beyond terrorists or thieves, more like a national intelligence operation.
Which brings us to...the Russians. Tajikistan or Kyrgyzstan probably couldn't do this (they have virtually no foreign intel capacity), but Russia still has operating bases in both countries (former Soviet facilities they still control). If we had the charts like above for the previous hours, we could do a pretty good job of plotting potential courses, and I would be willing to bet that a flight over the Himalayas and the wastes of far western China to one of those two countries would emerge as a high probability option. Tajikistan has closer relations to the Russians than Kyrgyzstan, and is a more likely candidate on those grounds. EDIT: But the whole region is a muddle, with comparatively little information available and borderlines drawn in the Soviet era that make *no* sense from the outside (there are chunks of Uzbekistan in there with no physical connection, and the lines wind around like a snake with a broken spine), so who freaking knows. And since our national security apparatus probably has that data and has run those calculations, if I could I'd be watching for an unusual burst of activity by the embassies in those countries. --Dave Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Evildrider on March 15, 2014, 03:49:52 PM Some news sources are saying that the plane may have ended up in Pakistan.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: MahrinSkel on March 15, 2014, 03:54:56 PM Some news sources are saying that the plane may have ended up in Pakistan. I doubt it, both because it's not consistent with the satellite data and because both we and the Indians have that area covered by a "no sparrow shall fall" level radar net. Similar for Iran.--Dave EDIT: Looking at reports on it, it seems like people are looking at the "straight lines" version of the satellite data map somebody threw together on MS Paint because the original wasn't ready for TV, then further speculating that since that (erroneous and misleading) map shows a path near Pakistan, it "might" have routed that way. They're still trying to find a narrative for this, and trying to cram it into the "Terrorist Hijacking" slot even though it makes no sense. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 15, 2014, 04:00:01 PM Wouldn't it be much easier for a national intelligence agency to simply buy or charter a machine than to steal it, though?
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: MahrinSkel on March 15, 2014, 04:04:18 PM Wouldn't it be much easier for a national intelligence agency to simply buy or charter a machine than to steal it, though? Yeah, motive is still a problem even thought the operational profile fits. What reason could they have for taking a risk like this? More likely to involve *someone* on the flight rather than the plane itself or the cargo, but why would grabbing a whole plane be considered preferable to a straight-up kidnapping?--Dave Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Evildrider on March 15, 2014, 04:09:15 PM Fuck it.. it's aliens. :awesome_for_real:
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: MahrinSkel on March 15, 2014, 04:19:42 PM This might be interesting: Tajikistan Foreign Minister met with Deputy Secretary of State last Wednesday (http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/appt/2014/03/223300.htm). That appears to be the only "high level" meeting between Tajikistan and State in the last year. Interestinglingly, a site search of state.gov for Kyrgyzstan (https://www.google.com/search?q=tajikistan+site:state.gov&lr=&hl=en&source=lnt&tbs=qdr:w&sa=X&ei=vd0kU7D5Feae2gX4n4GADQ&ved=0CBcQpwUoAw&biw=1680&bih=917&cad=cbv&sei=Fd4kU66FHeOc2AXbj4DwDw#hl=en&lr=&q=kyrgyzstan+site:state.gov&start=10&tbs=qdr:w) returns the high-level meeting schedules for the 12th and 13th (which the Tajikistan meeting is on) in the results, but there is no actual mention of that country on those pages now and there is no cached version on Google.
Hmmm.... Anybody know of a publicly accessible changelog for state.gov? --Dave EDIT: The search hits on Kyrgyzstan may just be its presence on the drop-down in that page (every other schedule page comes up as well). Still leaves the oddly timed meeting with the Foreign Minister of Tajikistan. EDIT2: Appears to have been scheduled long in advance, part of a tour by the FM that included the UN the day before. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Merusk on March 15, 2014, 04:26:28 PM I've been thinking of this (http://m.imdb.com/title/tt0097883/) since day one :grin: Heh I think of that every time there's a crash or a someone goes missing. The professor who taught my history of science fiction class was roommates with the author of the story the movie is based off of. Needless to say he was less than pleased with what the movie became. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Ghambit on March 15, 2014, 06:07:23 PM All this talk of hijacking and there's still no definitive way to rule out a cockpit fire. I believe two 777's have had fires fairly recently. Egyptair (in 2011) was a total cockpit loss on the ground after 1 minute (since the fire was using the O2 system as an accelerant). The Swissair flight in the 90's that ironically killed about the same amount of people, was almost identical in circumstance. Instrumentation fire. Dead of night. IFR conditions. Pilots struggled to maintain control over the flight plan and eventually hit the ocean at 300mph some time later.
A fire behind the panels or down in the instrument bay could easily get out of control and drop systems one after the other, eventually leaving the pilots with steam gauges and dead reckoning in the middle of the night. Their best bet would be to use the VOR intersections they apparently used and kill time until daylight. Likely the AP would be the only viable inertial nav. system left (their gyros are not located in the same place), if at all. They had a full moon so it's possible they had a horizon as long as they stayed above the cloud layer. Anyways, I find cockpit fire originating at the comm stack a more viable situation them some exotic hijacking scenario. You could fry an egg on some of those electronics (especially the radios) after they've been on a while. I am a pilot too btw. My 2 cents. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: KallDrexx on March 15, 2014, 06:33:46 PM Anyways, I find cockpit fire originating at the comm stack a more viable situation them some exotic hijacking scenario. You could fry an egg on some of those electronics (especially the radios) after they've been on a while. I am a pilot too btw. My 2 cents. Sounds plausible with the oil rig worker spotting too. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: calapine on March 15, 2014, 06:35:09 PM Possible. :-) Or some decompression accident and subsequent flying by the autopilot (until engines died by lack of fuel) as with Helios 552.
The flight path looks very deliberate though, so I'd personally guess human intent, whether by the pilot himself or any hijacker. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: MahrinSkel on March 15, 2014, 07:16:46 PM All this talk of hijacking and there's still no definitive way to rule out a cockpit fire. I believe two 777's have had fires fairly recently. Egyptair (in 2011) was a total cockpit loss on the ground after 1 minute (since the fire was using the O2 system as an accelerant). The Swissair flight in the 90's that ironically killed about the same amount of people, was almost identical in circumstance. Instrumentation fire. Dead of night. IFR conditions. Pilots struggled to maintain control over the flight plan and eventually hit the ocean at 300mph some time later. Except: That should not have taken out all of the comm systems (except the one that wasn't officially there) as they are not all in the cockpit in planes like that, and they might not have had instruments but they would have seen ground lights for rough navigation (so you're postulating a flight path that somehow never crossed a significant town or highway). Also, it was daylight by the time the satellite pings stopped. You are also still left with the problem of where the damned thing finally wound up, and why there's no debris field anywhere after 7 days of searching.A fire behind the panels or down in the instrument bay could easily get out of control and drop systems one after the other, eventually leaving the pilots with steam gauges and dead reckoning in the middle of the night. Their best bet would be to use the VOR intersections they apparently used and kill time until daylight. Likely the AP would be the only viable inertial nav. system left (their gyros are not located in the same place), if at all. They had a full moon so it's possible they had a horizon as long as they stayed above the cloud layer. Anyways, I find cockpit fire originating at the comm stack a more viable situation them some exotic hijacking scenario. You could fry an egg on some of those electronics (especially the radios) after they've been on a while. I am a pilot too btw. My 2 cents. You essentially have to assume that all of the electronic evidence (radar, satellite comm, etc.) has been mis-analyzed, and that the pilots managed to screw up in exactly the right way to maximize difficulties for the search. --Dave EDIT: A lot of these news reports and speculations are assuming a 2250nm limit on how far the plane could have gone and are drawing circles on the map that barely reach the southern tip of Pakistan, that's wrong. 2250 is the distance it was intended to fly (Kuala Lompur to Beijing), it had 8 hours of fuel on board (it's normal for there to be a couple of hours of excess) and could have gone as far as 3100nm from where contact was lost. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Ghambit on March 15, 2014, 08:16:10 PM Eh? I believe the only comm system that isnt articulated from the cockpit is sometimes a sat-comm from a flight attendant station. And that's assuming a hypothetical fire or precautionary action didnt take out the supporting systems for that. ACARS? Also in the cockpit (in the 'doghouse' access I believe) along with the requisite breaker panels within immediate reach of the pilots (if the breaker/fuse panel goes haywire, so will everything that runs through those busses). Regardless, apparently the airline didnt subscribe to ACARS engine monitoring.
Also realize, the first thing you're taught to do in midair fire is to pop every breaker you can find. Even if it was a relatively small hazard, the pilots would've shut off and/or reset every system to curtail it. Two pics of an Egyptair 777 2 mins. after cockpit fire (on the ground): (http://i.imgur.com/NkxlANG.jpg) (http://i.imgur.com/p8g0iGj.jpg) Imagine for a moment you're 35,000ft up in near pitch dark instrument conditions (it's midnite) on a plane that size and you lose nearly all instrumentation including most direct flight control. The cockpit is such a disaster that there's no way you could even land the plane. You cant talk to anyone either (no comms) and you're a ghost-plane with no transponder in busy airspace. You have near zero navigation aside from paper charts and maybe some VOR data. Maybe you've also decompressed and have no shot but to (assuming the AP is still functional) program the plane to fly a different flight plan until daylight... following the Malacca intersections until splashdown. I know it's a longshot, but they musn't discount cascade failures like this. This is the way aviation works. One small thing (or bad decision) leading up to an inconceivable amount of other things. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: MahrinSkel on March 15, 2014, 09:42:22 PM Granted, it's a possibility, and it accounts for one thing that the hijacking explanation has to dismiss: The report from an oil worker of seeing a plane that appeared to be on fire. But eyewitness testimony is often the least reliable form of evidence, and we have only the one guy.
--Dave Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Abagadro on March 15, 2014, 10:18:30 PM Would a cascade failure like that result in them taking it up to 45,000 feet? I guess without instruments maybe they didn't know they were in a climb?
That seems to be a key part of all of this from the latest reports. Some speculation that it was done to intentionally depressurize the plane since it is above the operational ceiling. Knock everyone out so they can't stop you from what you are doing (whatever the hell that may be). Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: angry.bob on March 15, 2014, 10:54:00 PM Would a cascade failure like that result in them taking it up to 45,000 feet? I guess without instruments maybe they didn't know they were in a climb? That seems to be a key part of all of this from the latest reports. Some speculation that it was done to intentionally depressurize the plane since it is above the operational ceiling. Knock everyone out so they can't stop you from what you are doing (whatever the hell that may be). It could, pretty easily and for a couple of reasons. They might not have known they were in a climb if it was shallow enough and then the plane stalls at 45,000 feet which could also account for it diving straight down. The problem with that is if you lose your instruments in the dark/fog/etc you can get a good idea of your axis orientations by just looking at a liquid in a container and piloting to keep it level until you can see something or you run out of gas. More likely, if there was a fire it wreaked havoc on the flight controls. The 777 is Boeing's first fly-by-wire plane. Airbus used to have a problem with wires that were bundled together inducing current in each other and causing the control surfaces to move randomly and uncontrollably in flight. Wires are shielded from doing that, so it's not really a problem anymore. But, as Ghambit said, the avionics and whatnot get hot. Really hot, and they cram all that shit into as small a space as they can right in front of and below the cockpit. On a good, old fashioned hydraulic/cable flight control system if you have a fire you put it out and fly on without whatever caught on fire. With the wire controlled system, that might be what caught on fire. Or the insulation and shielding burned off the wire. Or the wiring just melted/burned apart. So now you're riding in a plane that you have no control at all over. Maybe it'll try to do whatever the last input it got. Maybe the uninsulated wires are shorting out randomly and it'll do god only knows what and god only knows when. So, the plane decides to climb until it hits an altitude where the air density isn't letting the plane produce enough lift and it stalls out. The flight controls are out so there's no recovery and stright down it goes. I haven't worked on anything that big, so I don't know what sort of redundancy they have, but since the big feature of wire control is weight savings I doubt it's much. Also, from all I've read the 777 it seems to be a fucking deathtrap with some pretty big design flaws. My money is on a Fire too. I'm not a pilot but I've had an A & P license since 1989. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Lightstalker on March 15, 2014, 11:06:47 PM I'm not sure how much should be made about that altitude reading - both on the accuracy of the number actually hit and the implications of hitting that number. Back in college Boeing was still doing this (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sA9Kato1CxA) to full aircraft (not just representative mock ups); the operational limits on an aircraft are well under the failure limits of that craft.
You wouldn't want to run near the limit anyway, lest the unexpected happened and you had to / were forced to exceed that threshold. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: MahrinSkel on March 16, 2014, 12:17:52 AM Not knowing exactly what the Malaysian military was using, all I can say is that in general, military radars only give reliable altitude for planes they are actively attempting to track, and as this had to be reconstructed from recorded data, they presumably weren't explicitly tracking it. However, they seemed pretty confident in it, and there are some newer radars that would give that kind of detail without explicit tracking, so it's possible (the original source did say the report wasn't definitive because of range, that implies a radar designed for close-in air defense operating way outside its design parameters and someone trying to calculate what the recorded signal means, an informed guess at best). The same reports have it stabilizing at 23K and returning to normal cruising altitudes, which isn't consistent with uncontrolled flight.
There are a few other possibilities at the limits of chance, like the fact that Malaysia Post is one of the few postal services still shipping lithium batteries in aircraft. But there would be little reason to take them from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing (most are bound from Hong Kong or Singapore to the US or EU). It all comes down to the debris. It's nearly impossible that the plane could crash without leaving a big mess, unless it was soft landed on the ocean and then sank to the bottom. In that case, you'd expect that at least some people would be floating in the Indian Ocean. If nothing ever turns up.... --Dave Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: KallDrexx on March 16, 2014, 07:10:43 AM It all comes down to the debris. It's nearly impossible that the plane could crash without leaving a big mess, unless it was soft landed on the ocean and then sank to the bottom. In that case, you'd expect that at least some people would be floating in the Indian Ocean. If nothing ever turns up.... i was thinking about that last night and a soft water landing (like the Hudson river landing) is the only thing that makes sense in my mind. If it crashed in the ocean at high speed it sounds like there should be a lot of debris everywhere (the chairs and a lot of other pieces are made to float for just that very reason). If the plane was hijacked it seems extremely unlikely (of course not out of the realm of possibilities I guess) that it landed on land somewhere in tact. It would take far too much coordination to not only fly without identification codes (and without getting shot down) in a country's air space, then get access to land on a runway that supports a plane as big as a 777. Then when it lands they have to make sure no one notices a random Malaysian Airlines 777 land when its already been reported that one is missing. Furthermore, what do they do with the passengers? Either they are all alive and someone has to have the resources to keep, feed, and hide 239 passengers + crew or they are all dead and no one has noticed a 777 with 238 dead people on board. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: IainC on March 16, 2014, 07:50:23 AM Flight 447 gives a pretty sobering account of how a cascade of failure from a very minor issue, can cause pilot error that puts an otherwise perfectly OK aircraft into the ground (http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/aviation/crashes/what-really-happened-aboard-air-france-447-6611877). If the pilots of MH370 didn't trust their instruments for whatever reason, there are a lot of very small mistakes that can have devastating consequences.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 16, 2014, 07:59:11 AM As far as the timeline of events is concerned I don't see how a technical issue could be the explanation. If we'd still be talking about a missing plane that was last seen at location X, yes sure. Not when we're talking about a machine whose tracking and transponder systems were disabled deliberately, that deliberately changed course and that deliberately flew in a way to avoid tracking and radar systems.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: satael on March 16, 2014, 08:31:23 AM (one more) infographic on the MH370 flight stuff known so far:
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: angry.bob on March 16, 2014, 09:28:17 AM As far as the timeline of events is concerned I don't see how a technical issue could be the explanation. If we'd still be talking about a missing plane that was last seen at location X, yes sure. Not when we're talking about a machine whose tracking and transponder systems were disabled deliberately, that deliberately changed course and that deliberately flew in a way to avoid tracking and radar systems. Honestly, it's the most likely explanation. There's no evidence that indicates any of that stuff was intentional instead of accidental. A fire or other mishap in the avionics bay would be much more likely than a movie-level series of events. Here's a picture of the avionics bay in a 777: (http://www.airteamimages.com/pics/110/110941_big.jpg) While that is actually a luxuriously spacious avionics bay, it's still iall in one small area below the floor directly underneath the front passenger hatch. Pretty much everything involving electricity on the plane is either directly in there or is controlled by something in there. The only exception would be the flight recorder. Those are put in the tail since that's usually hit the ground last and takes the least damage. As far as avoiding radar, it doesn't sound like anyone with radar actually gave a shit about tracking it until after the fact. There's an old saying about apathy, incompetence, and sloth being more likely than a brilliant plan flawlessly executed. I don't remember it, but you get the idea. As far as no debris, the ocean is big. BIG. And stuff in it, even the size of an intact plane, is hard to see. Really, really hard. Like if you don't have a location pinned down pretty tightly, don't even bother hard. And in this case they have the area narrowed down to a band that stretches from the Crimea to the southern coast of Australia. That's nearly as bad as "somewhere near or in Asia". Actually, that's pretty much exactly what it is. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 16, 2014, 10:38:51 AM The satellite transponder they used to triangulate the projected path and that reported its last ping 6 1/2 hours after the machine vanished doesn't work once it's submerged under water or after a crash. Firstly because it's just a satellite transponder that is not powerful enough and because it draws its power from the engine.
That would mean that the plane continued on, on the wrong path, for six hours. If that had been the case wouldn't it have been more likely that the autopilot would have continued on its way to Beijing? Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Hawkbit on March 16, 2014, 10:48:55 AM I had a weird feeling that when they didn't find wreckage it was flown nose first into the ocean like United 93 did into land. It's a weird situation though and I'm glad F13 has a crack-investigation team working day and night on it.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Merusk on March 16, 2014, 11:41:53 AM That would mean that the plane continued on, on the wrong path, for six hours. If that had been the case wouldn't it have been more likely that the autopilot would have continued on its way to Beijing? I could be mistaken but doesn't Autopilot only keep a heading, not adjust for a destination or the original magnetic direction? i.e. If you're headed 122d 15' but then manually adjust course by 22d it will keep you going at the new heading of 100d 15' Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: calapine on March 16, 2014, 11:58:18 AM The satellite transponder they used to triangulate the projected path and that reported its last ping 6 1/2 hours after the machine vanished doesn't work once it's submerged under water or after a crash. Firstly because it's just a satellite transponder that is not powerful enough and because it draws its power from the engine. Yes, still receiving signals for 6 hours is what makes this so strange. Else one could reasonably assume: "It crashed somewhere of course, and, well, its a big ocean, so..." That would mean that the plane continued on, on the wrong path, for six hours. If that had been the case wouldn't it have been more likely that the autopilot would have continued on its way to Beijing? Think so too. I mentioned the Helios 552 flight before, and that is exactly what happened there. Crew unconscious, AP continues towards destination (Athen), actually executes approach procedure for the airport, but stays at the same flight-level, passes the Airport then turns into the designated holding area and stays there doing loops for the next 1 1/2 hours until it crashes due engine flameout. The official account was a really chilling read. Going back to the signal and knowing the plane didn't crash. If we assume mechanical failure, that would require an accident that: A) Knocks out the Transponder. B) Knocks out the ACARS, but C) Does Not disable the satcom which is used by the ACARS D) Knocks out all navigation in such a way the pilots weren't able to do a straight 180° turn and fly back to the starting airport, but E) Leaves enough of the other systems intact to enable pilots to stay in the air and fly controlled paths for the next 6 hours. It also requires that when the pilot crossed Malaysia again they failed to notice being over land and continued past the coast and that whatever course they took was so unfortunate that they never ended up over land again before running out of out fuel. :psyduck: Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: calapine on March 16, 2014, 12:12:45 PM That would mean that the plane continued on, on the wrong path, for six hours. If that had been the case wouldn't it have been more likely that the autopilot would have continued on its way to Beijing? I could be mistaken but doesn't Autopilot only keep a heading, not adjust for a destination or the original magnetic direction? i.e. If you're headed 122d 15' but then manually adjust course by 22d it will keep you going at the new heading of 100d 15' AFAIK (unlike Ghambit not a pilot): Depends on settings. Simple AP in Airbus is just some dials: one for heading, one for FL. I don't think that adjusts if you manually change course and then re-enage the AP. The more complex way are complete routes, which are stored in the Flight Management System, which relates its orders to the AP. Edit: Here is an image: (http://i.imgur.com/e7Nc2Ro.jpg) Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: MahrinSkel on March 16, 2014, 12:53:31 PM The satellite transponder they used to triangulate the projected path and that reported its last ping 6 1/2 hours after the machine vanished doesn't work once it's submerged under water or after a crash. Firstly because it's just a satellite transponder that is not powerful enough and because it draws its power from the engine. Not necessarily. The fly-by-wire system has some defaults that would try to keep the plane flying straight and level if all other control inputs were lost (if all control runs got burnt up, for example). But it wouldn't be making a soft landing, just flying until it ran out of fuel, then into the ocean at several hundred knots.That would mean that the plane continued on, on the wrong path, for six hours. If that had been the case wouldn't it have been more likely that the autopilot would have continued on its way to Beijing? --Dave Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Merusk on March 16, 2014, 12:54:01 PM Flight 447 gives a pretty sobering account of how a cascade of failure from a very minor issue, can cause pilot error that puts an otherwise perfectly OK aircraft into the ground (http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/aviation/crashes/what-really-happened-aboard-air-france-447-6611877). If the pilots of MH370 didn't trust their instruments for whatever reason, there are a lot of very small mistakes that can have devastating consequences. And this is why I hate flying. Panicked idiots on the highway can kill me, but I have at least some sort of ability to control my fate and evade them. Panicked idiots in the sky, I'm dead. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Evildrider on March 16, 2014, 02:27:27 PM (http://i.imgur.com/Ee6MBIs.jpg)
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: K9 on March 16, 2014, 02:57:09 PM Flight 447 gives a pretty sobering account of how a cascade of failure from a very minor issue, can cause pilot error that puts an otherwise perfectly OK aircraft into the ground (http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/aviation/crashes/what-really-happened-aboard-air-france-447-6611877). If the pilots of MH370 didn't trust their instruments for whatever reason, there are a lot of very small mistakes that can have devastating consequences. And this is why I hate flying. Panicked idiots on the highway can kill me, but I have at least some sort of ability to control my fate and evade them. Panicked idiots in the sky, I'm dead. By the same logic, do you also hate taking trains or the metro? Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Chimpy on March 16, 2014, 02:58:31 PM Flight 447 gives a pretty sobering account of how a cascade of failure from a very minor issue, can cause pilot error that puts an otherwise perfectly OK aircraft into the ground (http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/aviation/crashes/what-really-happened-aboard-air-france-447-6611877). If the pilots of MH370 didn't trust their instruments for whatever reason, there are a lot of very small mistakes that can have devastating consequences. And this is why I hate flying. Panicked idiots on the highway can kill me, but I have at least some sort of ability to control my fate and evade them. Panicked idiots in the sky, I'm dead. By the same logic, do you also hate taking trains or the metro? He lives in one of the many parts of the US where there is no metro and you have to go way out of your way to travel by train. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Morat20 on March 16, 2014, 03:15:25 PM Flight 447 gives a pretty sobering account of how a cascade of failure from a very minor issue, can cause pilot error that puts an otherwise perfectly OK aircraft into the ground (http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/aviation/crashes/what-really-happened-aboard-air-france-447-6611877). If the pilots of MH370 didn't trust their instruments for whatever reason, there are a lot of very small mistakes that can have devastating consequences. And this is why I hate flying. Panicked idiots on the highway can kill me, but I have at least some sort of ability to control my fate and evade them. Panicked idiots in the sky, I'm dead. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Merusk on March 16, 2014, 03:37:56 PM More cars on the road than planes. Trains and metro are on rails, so disasters are more of the "guy was drunk" than "airline cuts corners on training. Inexperienced pilot kills 300" or "whoops, took a wrong turn into an obstacle" variety. :awesome_for_real:
Feel free to keep flying. I hear the experience has only gotten better as time's gone on. Meanwhile it still costs me less to drive 14 hours than to fly 4 people the same distance, so there's also that. No, time "saved" isn't included, mainly because I enjoy car trips and despise the dens of humanity that are airports. So let's count sanity saved as well. My last business flight was supposed to be a 4 hour affair, including the airports. 12 hours later I was beginning to understand serial killer's point of view. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Morat20 on March 16, 2014, 03:49:11 PM More cars on the road than planes. Trains and metro are on rails, so disasters are more of the "guy was drunk" than "airline cuts corners on training. Inexperienced pilot kills 300" or "whoops, took a wrong turn into an obstacle" variety. :awesome_for_real: Strangely enough, statisticians are very aware of the whole "more cars than planes" bit and thus do things like calculate "fatalities per hour" or "per million miles".It's not even close. As in "you're an order of magnitude more likely to die" in a car than a plane, even when you've sorted it all out by miles traveled. Planes are far safer for a couple of reasons -- starting with the fact that pretty much every pilot every is far better trained than any driver outside of NASCAR, that planes themselves have a hell of a lot more safety measures built into them (and their routes) than cars and highways, etc. For every billion km driven, there are 3 fatalities. For every billion kilometers flown, there are 0.05 fatalities. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Cheddar on March 16, 2014, 03:57:33 PM Infowars is going apeshit. This and the ukraine thing have made the conspirists heads pop.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Morat20 on March 16, 2014, 04:05:48 PM Infowars is going apeshit. This and the ukraine thing have made the conspirists heads pop. Conspiracies are fun. And who knows, sometimes the truth even is some weird conspiracy. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Ghambit on March 16, 2014, 04:40:45 PM I'm not watching this thread close enough to address all the questions. But, back to the "sat-com" and/or ACARS. There's a big difference between being pingable and transmitting. A satellite in orbit can ping pretty much ANYTHING on the planet regardless of location (even w/o LOS many times). If it registers the address as pingable, then the location is 'available.' It does not mean the location is transmitting. These big planes have plenty of standby power (not including passive components inside the devices like capacitors, standby batts, etc.). She could be sitting in a tree canopy or floating on the indian ocean and still show up to the datacenters.
As for AP operation... every plane is different and highly depends on the equipment. Most modern craft can fly a flight plan w/o input, but typically a pilot would need to 'accept' the course change for the system to allow it. Even on consumer-grade GPS-coupled APs this is the case. Maybe that function is bypassable, but not sure. The navigational intersections you saw the plane theoretically fly are a remnant of the old-school IFR capable radio intersections. Basically you'd line up 2 or 3 stations and your vectors would put you on those points (if not directed by ATC)... then you'd fly the tables to the next one, and so forth. Nowadays this is just done virtually with GPS, but the locations still remain. If MH370 lost GPS they'd pretty much have to use that system to know where they are at night, or old-school RNAV, RDF, etc. (if equipped). Realize, over the ocean you have NONE of that... just dead reckoning. Most planes still have a GPIRB, EPIRB, and/or 121.5 ELS in case of emergency (for location-finding). But, all would need to be manually activated unless submerged. The GPIRB would also need LOS. The 121.5 would need a station within range (12 mile radius at 6ft elevation to receiver) listening... which no one does unless they're coast guard. It was easy to pin this event as an accident because the route showed an immediate turn towards the nearest land (after the apparent altitude changes). From there you'd have to make the stretch that the plane was unlandable at night (on land or sea); maybe due to equipment/cockpit failure and the pilot's were biding their time (or unconscious). Maybe a novice had to commandeer the plane. Who knows. It's a certainty the aircraft was acting 'lost' though. Hell, there are pro. pilots out there (I'm not kidding here) that if you shut off the GPS and/or radios - they're essentially SOL. Perhaps these pilots just couldnt handle finding their way w/o full instrumentation. Everyone seems to think the plane is highjacked in central Asia somewhere, but there still are a few experts telling everyone to just 'hold on a minute here' and keep the options open. 1st cause is always pilot error, then breakdown, and then terrorism/hijacking. The 1st two hypothesis dont just go away because there's strong evidence of the latter. Also, there are whispers there may have been sabotage causing a pilot error and/or breakdown. Reminds me of that story about a year ago of that IT company that demonstrated it could take over a plane with nothing more than a laptop and a wi-fi connection. :ye_gods: Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Simond on March 16, 2014, 05:49:32 PM Fuck it.. it's aliens. :awesome_for_real: Nope.(http://i.imgur.com/3MFKGJY.jpg) Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: calapine on March 16, 2014, 08:28:06 PM New information from Malaysian papers. I think it's safe to say now this was not an accident:
Quote from: New Straits Times MISSING MH370: Final words from jet came after systems shutdown Authorities have said someone on board the plane first disabled one of its communications systems — the Aircraft and Communications Addressing and Reporting System, or ACARS — about 40 minutes after takeoff. The ACARS equipment sends information about the jet’s engines and other data to the airline. Around 14 minutes later, the transponder that identifies the plane to commercial radar systems was also shut down. The fact that both systems went dark separately offered strong evidence that the plane’s disappearance was deliberate. Quote from: The Malaysian Insider MH370 flew as low as 1,500m to avoid detection In an exclusive story, the government-backed paper said investigators analysing MH370’s flight data revealed that the 200-tonne, fully laden twinjet descended 1,500m or even lower to evade commercial (secondary) radar coverage after it turned back from its flight path en route to Beijing. Investigators poring over MH370’s flight data had said the plane had flown low and used “terrain masking” as it flew over the Bay of Bengal and headed north towards land, the NST reported. Officials, who formed the technical team, were looking into the possibility that whoever was piloting the jet at that time had taken advantage of the busy airways over the Bay of Bengal and stuck to a commercial route to avoid raising the suspicion of those manning primary (military) radars, the paper said. Source 1 (http://www.nst.com.my/latest/font-color-red-missing-mh370-font-final-words-from-jet-came-after-systems-shutdown-1.517352?cache=03%2F7.212150%2F7.209269%2F7.259183%2F7.478118%2F7.478118%2F7.502513%2F7.502513%2F7.502513%2F7.502513) Source 2 (http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/mh370-flew-as-low-as-1500m-to-avoid-detection-says-nst) Well, shit... :oh_i_see: I'd say this is even beyond a "normal" hijacking. Scary... Edit: No need to thank me for scouring the web to bring you the latest news. It's not like I have anything else to do! (I don't :sad:) Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Hoax on March 16, 2014, 10:03:26 PM I love reading threads like this but I also seriously wonder who you people are sometimes and where you find the time/impetus to dig this deep. Keep it up.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Ghambit on March 17, 2014, 12:38:51 AM Only the ACARS went down before the final radio message (there's probably no alarm/indicator that it even happened). That still does not rule out a serious cascading electrical issue. As for flying low; that's par for the course if there's a fire. You need to get down and quickly even if you cant land.
(I'm never going to let this theory go) :why_so_serious: Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Khaldun on March 17, 2014, 02:38:08 AM I'm just remembering the last time the Internet decided it knew exactly what had happened with a mystery, e.g., the Boston Marathon bombing. Fun's fun and all, but people can be pretty quick to come to strong conclusions based on limited evidence...
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 17, 2014, 03:21:23 AM These big planes have plenty of standby power (not including passive components inside the devices like capacitors, standby batts, etc.). She could be sitting in a tree canopy or floating on the indian ocean and still show up to the datacenters. As far as I could find out the only way to get any data off the plane is the ACARS. Every connected system transfers data to the ACARS and the ACARS routes it to the destination via VHF or Inmarsat or other communication systems (depending on what is available on a plane and if it has a connection). Makes sense really, since the transmission power involved to get a message to its destination via VHF or L-Band Satellite is too high for integrated and battery powered transceivers. Also VHF requires an antenna that is between 25 cm and 2,5m long at lambda/4 depending on the band used (VHF is 30 to 300 MHz) and L-Band Transmitters require a 40 cm dish. It's unlikely that a data recording subsystem could transmit anything on its own without going through the plane's transmission system. So in order for the Satellite network to be able to ping the plane and get a reply the whole transmitter system has to still be functional and it has to be powered. Either by backup power or the internal generator. It also can't transmit while the transmitter (antenna system) is submerged in water. Radio signals are easily isolated by water (that's why the flight data recorder uses sonar or acoustical pings) usually 10 cm to 30 cm of water are enough to completely block any transmissions. In order for your scenario to work the plane would need to be mostly operational. That's why so many experts still think the plane was in the air for the whole time (at least until fuel ran out) because it would be highly unlikely for those systems to still be active once the plane had crashed and it also seemed unlikely that the plane could have landed anywhere without it being noticed. So the plane was either still in the air when the last contact was made which probably means that it ran out of fuel and crashed or it was on the ground but mostly intact so that the plane's transmitter was still operational. Quote Everyone seems to think the plane is highjacked in central Asia somewhere, but there still are a few experts telling everyone to just 'hold on a minute here' and keep the options open. 1st cause is always pilot error, then breakdown, and then terrorism/hijacking. The 1st two hypothesis dont just go away because there's strong evidence of the latter. Usually the most likely explanation is also what really happened. I don't even take issue with that reasoning. It's just that the explanations by experts involved as to why anything else couldn't have happened seems weak. Firstly because the persons involved knew pretty early on that both the transponder and the ACARS have been deliberately shut off before the last 'AOK' transmission was made. This points to other explanations than pilot error or defect as to why the machine is missing. Secondly because the explanations amount to 'the plane couldn't have landed because we would have found it by now if it did' and 'it would require expert knowledge to pull something like this off which the perpetrators likely didn't have'. Since 9/11 one should be very careful with that line of reasoning because it amounts to nothing but a chauvinistic belief that those brown people aren't smart or educated enough to pull something like this off and a professional pilot would never do this for any reason at all. The most probably scenario is still that we'll find the plane somewhere, crashed, and that the flight data recorder will show us a scenario that explains everything and that it was simply a chain of events we couldn't even imagine would happen and that we couldn't have anticipated. I don't fault the investigators for looking at every possible angle though, especially since the whole things seems to be suspicious. (The search for a possibly crashed plane is still going on after all even after they've searched the captain's house) I just fault the 'experts' who by and large are quick to dismiss anything out of the ordinary as 'this couldn't have happened, ever'. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 17, 2014, 03:26:47 AM For me it's a difference if whether you state that 'this is the most likely explanation but we are investigating in all directions', what a professional investigative team would do and 'this is the only explanation and it's unnecessery to investigate anything else because it could have never happened' many 'experts' have been quoted on saying.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Numtini on March 17, 2014, 04:35:49 AM We don't have a lot of mysteries in the world. It's hard to believe in the Yeti when there are hundreds of people climbing Mount Everest. At least right now, while there's obviously been some kind of horrible happening, we have a bona fide "In Search Of" mystery. It's not surprising it's grabbed people's attention and imagination.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: KallDrexx on March 17, 2014, 05:56:19 AM The most probably scenario is still that we'll find the plane somewhere, crashed, and that the flight data recorder will show us a scenario that explains everything and that it was simply a chain of events we couldn't even imagine would happen and that we couldn't have anticipated. I don't fault the investigators for looking at every possible angle though, especially since the whole things seems to be suspicious. (The search for a possibly crashed plane is still going on after all even after they've searched the captain's house) I just fault the 'experts' who by and large are quick to dismiss anything out of the ordinary as 'this couldn't have happened, ever'. I might be wrong but I think the flight recording might be somewhat useless at this point. We might be able to find out if it was a hijacking or not but I believe the flight recorder only holds 2 hours worth of data, and since it was flying for 4-5 hours past when they went dark I have a feeling we won't ever really know the full story (unless people are actually found alive, which I find highly unlikely). Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: IainC on March 17, 2014, 06:01:12 AM The voice recorder is a minimum of 30 minutes (NTSB recommendation is 2 hours), the flight data recorder records 17-25 hours of flight data.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: KallDrexx on March 17, 2014, 06:18:19 AM The voice recorder is a minimum of 30 minutes (NTSB recommendation is 2 hours), the flight data recorder records 17-25 hours of flight data. Oh ok, that makes more sense then. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: IainC on March 17, 2014, 07:10:56 AM Interesting hypothesis for how MH370 could have used another aircraft to slip through radar undetected into Central Asia (http://keithledgerwood.tumblr.com/post/79838944823/did-malaysian-airlines-370-disappear-using-sia68).
Quote Starting with a set of facts that have been made available publically and verified over the past few days, I first plotted MH370’s course onto an aviation IFR map which shows the airways and waypoints used to navigate the skies. I plotted the point where it stopped transmitting ADS-B information at 1721UTC. I then plotted the Malaysian military radar track from that point towards “VAMPI”, “GIVAL”, and then onward toward “IGREX” on P628 ending with where the plane should be at 1815UTC when military radar lost contact. Nothing profound there… but then I looked to see what other planes were in the air at 1815UTC and I looked to see exactly where they were positioned in the sky and where they were flying. The picture started to develop when I discovered that another Boeing 777 was en-route from Singapore over the Andaman Sea. I investigated further and plotted the exact coordinates of Singapore Airlines flight number 68’s location at 1815UTC onto the aviation map. I quickly realized that SIA68 was in the immediate vicinity as the missing MH370 flight at precisely the same time. Moreover, SIA68 was en-route on a heading towards the same IGREX waypoint on airway P628 that the Malaysian military radar had shown MH370 headed towards at precisely the same time. [...] So by now, you may have caught on or you may be scratching your head and wondering if I’ve gone insane! How does SIA68 have anything to do with MH370 disappearing? Remember the one challenge that is currently making everyone doubt that MH370 actually flew to Turkmenistan, Iran, China, or Kyrgyzstan? That challenge is the thought that MH370 couldn’t make it through several key airspaces such as India or Afghanistan without being detected by the military. It is my belief that MH370 likely flew in the shadow of SIA68 through India and Afghanistan airspace. As MH370 was flying “dark” without transponder / ADS-B output, SIA68 would have had no knowledge that MH370 was anywhere around and as it entered Indian airspace, it would have shown up as one single blip on the radar with only the transponder information of SIA68 lighting up ATC and military radar screens. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: MahrinSkel on March 17, 2014, 07:25:06 AM He's not crazy, what he describes could work. Even if an operator saw two blips where he 'knew' there was one plane, he'd be likely to dismiss it or report it to maintenance rather than think it was two planes. Odds are it would never be noticed at all, radar is notorious for artifacts and false echoes, and the resolution isn't all that great unless it's been specifically designed to distinguish planes flying in close formation.
If it's flying that close, it can also 'draft' on the other aircraft and extend the range. --Dave Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 17, 2014, 07:27:47 AM Even if a RADAR would have shown a sort of 'double-contact' operators might have dismissed it as interference or 'echoes' from flight SIA68 so they might not have suspected that anything was wrong. After all there was a real and scheduled flight showing up on there with a transponder signal.
If that were the case though then the people involved had to have intimate knowledge about all of the technology involved, the airspaces they'd needed to fly over, the flight plans of other planes in the area and so on. I can't imagine even an organized terrorist cell to come up with every bit of information needed. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: IainC on March 17, 2014, 07:38:17 AM Most of that stuff is public knowledge, especially if you're a commercial pilot or know enough about commercial aviation to know where to look. All they'd need is to link up with a flight going in the right direction and that airspace is busy, there'd be suitable candidates practically round the clock.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 17, 2014, 07:55:07 AM I may be wonky on my physics there but wouldn't the fact that a second plane was basically slipstreaming increase the fuel consumption of the plane travelling in front?
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: MahrinSkel on March 17, 2014, 08:11:44 AM I may be wonky on my physics there but wouldn't the fact that a second plane was basically slipstreaming increase the fuel consumption of the plane travelling in front? Not unless it was *really* close. It could get a significant (although sub-optimum) boost at a distance of several hundred meters. "Heavies" like the 777 throw out such a large wave of air that air traffic control has to keep them miles apart so they don't knock each other around, light aircraft can be flipped outright by it.--Dave EDIT: If it was flying 100-200 meters behind, it would be nearly indistinguishable on radar unless someone was looking directly at it with the kind of radar normally only used for missiles or AA guns. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Goumindong on March 17, 2014, 11:26:17 AM I may be wonky on my physics there but wouldn't the fact that a second plane was basically slipstreaming increase the fuel consumption of the plane travelling in front? No. The plane traveling in front actually gets a reduction in drag because the wake that a plane normally leaves is a low pressure zone which exerts force holding the plane back. Two planes with a good slip would be just like two cars with a good slip. Faster and more fuel efficient than one car. Supposing that you could do it. That being said, the problem with slipping planes should actually be stalling (and engine air intake). Because the plane in front is pulling air with it as it displaces the plane behind it has effectively reduced air speed. Its possible this effect isn't significant enough in the wing portion to have enough effect. The other issue would be that if you're behind a plane you're flying into its exhaust and not into a good air mix for your engines. If you wanted to fly close to get radar to ignore you you probably wouldn't fly behind another plane, but beside. That being said, its entirely more likely that what this information means is that the plane crashed near where we originally saw it disappear and that the other radar contact was actually the other 747 that just happened to intersect with his path and is being confused for the missing plane. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Ghambit on March 17, 2014, 12:53:21 PM Jet wake is the worst and is a serious concern for any pilot no matter how big your plane. There are rules when dealing with it both on the ground and in the air that ATC and crew have to abide by. That said, to avoid it they'd have to be right up the ass of the other plane or above it and behind. Story: I came into a known 'wakey' area once in a small plane and voiced my concern to the controller; but given the traffic density had nowhere to go - especially when crossing a flighttracked ADIZ. Sure as shit, got near the departure vector of FLL and wham, whole plane got corkscrewed about 20 degrees left in about 10ms. Another time I flew underneath an approach vector to MIA and could literally "see" the wake coming (from the burnt JetA); that time I could brace for it and slow down.
These big planes have plenty of standby power (not including passive components inside the devices like capacitors, standby batts, etc.). She could be sitting in a tree canopy or floating on the indian ocean and still show up to the datacenters. As far as I could find out the only way to get any data off the plane is the ACARS. Every connected system transfers data to the ACARS and the ACARS routes it to the destination via VHF or Inmarsat or other communication systems (depending on what is available on a plane and if it has a connection). Makes sense really, since the transmission power involved to get a message to its destination via VHF or L-Band Satellite is too high for integrated and battery powered transceivers. Also VHF requires an antenna that is between 25 cm and 2,5m long at lambda/4 depending on the band used (VHF is 30 to 300 MHz) and L-Band Transmitters require a 40 cm dish. It's unlikely that a data recording subsystem could transmit anything on its own without going through the plane's transmission system. So in order for the Satellite network to be able to ping the plane and get a reply the whole transmitter system has to still be functional and it has to be powered. Either by backup power or the internal generator. It also can't transmit while the transmitter (antenna system) is submerged in water. Radio signals are easily isolated by water (that's why the flight data recorder uses sonar or acoustical pings) usually 10 cm to 30 cm of water are enough to completely block any transmissions. In order for your scenario to work the plane would need to be mostly operational. That's why so many experts still think the plane was in the air for the whole time (at least until fuel ran out) because it would be highly unlikely for those systems to still be active once the plane had crashed and it also seemed unlikely that the plane could have landed anywhere without it being noticed. So the plane was either still in the air when the last contact was made which probably means that it ran out of fuel and crashed or it was on the ground but mostly intact so that the plane's transmitter was still operational. Quote Everyone seems to think the plane is highjacked in central Asia somewhere, but there still are a few experts telling everyone to just 'hold on a minute here' and keep the options open. 1st cause is always pilot error, then breakdown, and then terrorism/hijacking. The 1st two hypothesis dont just go away because there's strong evidence of the latter. Usually the most likely explanation is also what really happened. I don't even take issue with that reasoning. It's just that the explanations by experts involved as to why anything else couldn't have happened seems weak. Firstly because the persons involved knew pretty early on that both the transponder and the ACARS have been deliberately shut off before the last 'AOK' transmission was made. This points to other explanations than pilot error or defect as to why the machine is missing. Secondly because the explanations amount to 'the plane couldn't have landed because we would have found it by now if it did' and 'it would require expert knowledge to pull something like this off which the perpetrators likely didn't have'. Since 9/11 one should be very careful with that line of reasoning because it amounts to nothing but a chauvinistic belief that those brown people aren't smart or educated enough to pull something like this off and a professional pilot would never do this for any reason at all. The most probably scenario is still that we'll find the plane somewhere, crashed, and that the flight data recorder will show us a scenario that explains everything and that it was simply a chain of events we couldn't even imagine would happen and that we couldn't have anticipated. I don't fault the investigators for looking at every possible angle though, especially since the whole things seems to be suspicious. (The search for a possibly crashed plane is still going on after all even after they've searched the captain's house) I just fault the 'experts' who by and large are quick to dismiss anything out of the ordinary as 'this couldn't have happened, ever'. Not a disagreement but I will clarify again. The ACARS wasnt transmitting anything (already established), plane operational or not. All it was doing was passive 'wake on lan' type listening. It's no different then a powered-down smart TV or a computer in sleep mode. You can still ping the equipment and get a few bits response, but that doesn't mean said equipment is fully "on" or even operational. All those systems could be shut down and as long as the receiver is functional w/millivolts available to the volatile RAM, still be pingable. To give a frame of reference; you can buy a cigarette pack sized 'pinger' that'll work on standby for 4 years and transmit actively for minimally 2 days to an orbiting constellation. Also realize, the only reason this data is even being looked at is because there are no other avenues to go down. Typically one would not need to sift through acars triangulation even in the case of something like AirFrance (who had full acars all the way to impact). But, take that EE-room and set it afire?? With the plane being lost? There's not much else you can do. Not saying to discount hijacking at all (it's popularly the most valid theory), but seriously... electrical/mechanical failure with a subsequent crash-landing is still very much an option especially in these newer planes (777 is electrically 'notorious' btw). You have some of the best pilots in the world on TV saying the same thing... especially with the apparent lack of any cell phone data, not even an inflight internet usage. If the plane was hijacked, it's highly unlikely not a single passenger got any data out - especially a plane full of Freescale engineers (hell, they probably designed many of the systems in the plane). Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Lantyssa on March 17, 2014, 01:12:10 PM So you're suggesting the engineers had the know-how to hijack this specific plane? I t was an inside job.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 17, 2014, 01:38:35 PM The reason that those cigerette-pack sized pingers work for four years on standby is that they do nothing else and have been designed exactly for that application.
The main parameters that determine power use of a transmitter or more exactly - how much power does a certain transmitter need to still be able to be received by a certain receiver at a distance of X - is: 1. range 2. bandwidth 3. receiver sensitivity (kind of dependent on 1. and 2.) If all you need is a link that transmits virtually no data (a ping is essentially just that) and can therefore use a very narrow-band transceiver (a few bit/s) then the amount of energy you need to transmit over a certain range can be really low. If you have to do the same with a wideband-transmitter you also use to transmit large datagrams your power requirements will be much higher. I've designed transmitter systems that cover a distance of 1000 miles and work for yeras on a single coin cell. Those transceivers are very narrow band though and would only be able to transmit a few bytes/s. It would not be possible though if the transmitter was capable of for example transmitting 100 kBit/s. At a certain bandwidth level and range (a few kBit/s at a range of miles) the power required to transmit can no longer come from a simple small battery, like the ones used in those small transmitter devices. The receiver would draw more power than the chemical reaction in those batteries can deliver. That limit is reached even sooner when you need batteries that work in hostile environments. (-80°C at 30,000 feet or inside an engine compartment at +600°C) because batteries that survive that environment deliver even less power. You'd need a few watts of transmit power to reach an Iridium or Inmarsat Satellite in low earth orbit if you needed to do that with the sort of L-Band Transmitter you'd also use to transmit ACARS datagrams, even if all you wanted to transmit is a reply to a ping (and it has to reply otherwise we wouldn't know that the transmitter was active). That's why those systems only transmit when mains power is available, that's also why you can turn them off to conserve power. If they run on backup power the batteries involved are usually much more voluminous than AA-Batteries, more like car batteries. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 17, 2014, 01:43:36 PM The reason that laptop and mobile phone batteries are so sophisticated is not only because of the capacity (several amp-hours) but also because of the high power draw (100 mA of current and more). That's also why your car abttery is such a huge thing compared to other types of rechargables (up to 30 amps of current drawn at engine start)
A normal battery would just lead to a brown out of the device or the battery would get too hot and explode. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Quinton on March 17, 2014, 01:47:22 PM Thought this was an interesting point of view: https://plus.google.com/106271056358366282907/posts/GoeVjHJaGBz
Quote MH370 A different point of view. Pulau Langkawi 13,000 runway. A lot of speculation about MH370. Terrorism, hijack, meteors. I cannot believe the analysis on CNN - almost disturbing. I tend to look for a more simple explanation of this event. Loaded 777 departs midnight from Kuala to Beijing. Hot night. Heavy aircraft. About an hour out across the gulf towards Vietnam the plane goes dark meaning the transponder goes off and secondary radar tracking goes off. Two days later we hear of reports that Malaysian military radar (which is a primary radar meaning the plane is being tracked by reflection rather than by transponder interrogation response) has tracked the plane on a southwesterly course back across the Malay Peninsula into the straits of Malacca. When I heard this I immediately brought up Google Earth and I searched for airports in proximity to the track towards southwest. The left turn is the key here. This was a very experienced senior Captain with 18,000 hours. Maybe some of the younger pilots interviewed on CNN didn't pick up on this left turn. We old pilots were always drilled to always know the closest airport of safe harbor while in cruise. Airports behind us, airports abeam us and airports ahead of us. Always in our head. Always. Because if something happens you don't want to be thinking what are you going to do - you already know what you are going to do. Instinctively when I saw that left turn with a direct heading I knew he was heading for an airport. Actually he was taking a direct route to Palau Langkawi a 13,000 foot strip with an approach over water at night with no obstacles. He did not turn back to Kuala Lampur because he knew he had 8,000 foot ridges to cross. He knew the terrain was friendlier towards Langkawi and also a shorter distance. Take a look on Google Earth at this airport. This pilot did all the right things. He was confronted by some major event onboard that made him make that immediate turn back to the closest safe airport. For me the loss of transponders and communications makes perfect sense if a fire. There was most likely a fire or electrical fire. In the case of fire the first response if to pull all the main busses and restore circuits one by one until you have isolated the bad one. If they pulled the busses the plane indeed would go silent. It was probably a serious event and they simply were occupied with controlling the plane and trying to fight the fire. Aviate, Navigate and lastly communicate. There are two types of fires. Electrical might not be as fast and furious and there might or might not be incapacitating smoke. However there is the possibility given the timeline that perhaps there was an overheat on one of the front landing gear tires and it blew on takeoff and started slowly burning. Yes this happens with underinflated tires. Remember heavy plane, hot night, sea level, long run takeoff. There was a well known accident in Nigeria of a DC8 that had a landing gear fire on takeoff. A tire fire once going would produce horrific incapacitating smoke. Yes, pilots have access to oxygen masks but this is a no no with fire. Most have access to a smoke hood with a filter but this will only last for a few minutes depending on the smoke level. (I used to carry one of my own in a flight bag and I still carry one in my briefcase today when I fly). What I think happened is that they were overcome by smoke and the plane just continued on the heading probably on George (autopilot) until either fuel exhaustion or fire destroyed the control surfaces and it crashed. I said four days ago you will find it along that route - looking elsewhere was pointless. This pilot, as I say, was a hero struggling with an impossible situation trying to get that plane to Langkawi. No doubt in my mind. That's the reason for the turn and direct route. A hijack would not have made that deliberate left turn with a direct heading for Langkawi. It would probably have weaved around a bit until the hijackers decided on where they were taking it. Surprisingly none of the reporters , officials, other pilots interviewed have looked at this from the pilot's viewpoint. If something went wrong where would he go? Thanks to Google earth I spotted Langkawi in about 30 seconds, zoomed in and saw how long the runway was and I just instinctively knew this pilot knew this airport. He had probably flown there many times. I guess we will eventually find out when you help me spread this theory on the net and some reporters finally take a look on Google earth and put 2 and 2 together. Also a look at the age and number of cycles on those nose tires might give us a good clue too. Fire in an aircraft demands one thing - you get the machine on the ground as soon as possible. There are two well remembered experiences in my memory. The AirCanada DC9 which landed I believe in Columbus Ohio in the eighties. That pilot delayed descent and bypassed several airports. He didn't instinctively know the closest airports. He got it on the ground eventually but lost 30 odd souls. In the 1998 crash of Swissair DC-10 off Nova Scotia was another example of heroic pilots. They were 15 minutes out of Halifax but the fire simply overcame them and they had to ditch in the ocean. Just ran out of time. That fire incidentally started when the aircraft was about an hour out of Kennedy. Guess what the transponders and communications were shut off as they pulled the busses. Get on Google Earth and type in Pulau Langkawi and then look at it in relation to the radar track heading. 2+2=4 That for me is the simple explanation why it turned and headed in that direction. Smart pilot. Just didn't have the time. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: lamaros on March 17, 2014, 03:32:27 PM People love a conspiracy theory, but there is only one reason to assume such a thing in this case, that there were two people traveling on stolen passports. I would love to see how common that is though, perhaps it's not really that remarkable.
Only an accident makes sense. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Chimpy on March 17, 2014, 03:46:54 PM The scariest thing about this thread is that Ghambit is pretty much the voice of reason. :ye_gods:
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Lantyssa on March 17, 2014, 04:31:38 PM Heh. That's so true.
While a hijacking might give some 'meaning' to this tragedy, a fire still makes the most sense. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: MahrinSkel on March 17, 2014, 05:05:31 PM Since "serious" news outlets are considering theories up to and including the literal hand of God (http://www.mediaite.com/tv/don-lemon-cnn-guest-wonder-whether-something-supernatural-happened-to-malaysian-plane/), I think we're all comparatively reasonable here.
--Dave Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Khaldun on March 17, 2014, 05:11:10 PM You know, it's pretty clear that even the relatively cautious mainstream media thinks it wasn't an accident, though the plane may well have met with an accident later.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Goreschach on March 17, 2014, 05:13:36 PM No, the mainstream media doesn't want it to be an accident.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Merusk on March 17, 2014, 05:30:33 PM More accurately, they don't want an answer because it lets them speculate, fuel the usual bullshit with talking heads, including anti-muslim nonsense and raise ratings. The latest one I saw was how the oldest pilot was a political exrtremist because they found a picture in which he was wearing a "Democracy is Dead" t-shirt.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: 01101010 on March 17, 2014, 05:53:37 PM If this was hijacked and taken to completion, then what happened to all those passengers? I'd think by now there would have been something. Just armchair throwing it out there.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Ghambit on March 17, 2014, 06:23:43 PM Thought this was an interesting point of view: https://plus.google.com/106271056358366282907/posts/GoeVjHJaGBz Quote MH370 A different point of view. Pulau Langkawi 13,000 runway. A lot of speculation about MH370. Terrorism, hijack, meteors. I cannot believe the analysis on CNN - almost disturbing. I tend to look for a more simple explanation of this event. Loaded 777 departs midnight from Kuala to Beijing. Hot night. Heavy aircraft. About an hour out across the gulf towards Vietnam the plane goes dark meaning the transponder goes off and secondary radar tracking goes off. Two days later we hear of reports that Malaysian military radar (which is a primary radar meaning the plane is being tracked by reflection rather than by transponder interrogation response) has tracked the plane on a southwesterly course back across the Malay Peninsula into the straits of Malacca. When I heard this I immediately brought up Google Earth and I searched for airports in proximity to the track towards southwest. The left turn is the key here. This was a very experienced senior Captain with 18,000 hours. Maybe some of the younger pilots interviewed on CNN didn't pick up on this left turn. We old pilots were always drilled to always know the closest airport of safe harbor while in cruise. Airports behind us, airports abeam us and airports ahead of us. Always in our head. Always. Because if something happens you don't want to be thinking what are you going to do - you already know what you are going to do. Instinctively when I saw that left turn with a direct heading I knew he was heading for an airport. Actually he was taking a direct route to Palau Langkawi a 13,000 foot strip with an approach over water at night with no obstacles. He did not turn back to Kuala Lampur because he knew he had 8,000 foot ridges to cross. He knew the terrain was friendlier towards Langkawi and also a shorter distance. Take a look on Google Earth at this airport. This pilot did all the right things. He was confronted by some major event onboard that made him make that immediate turn back to the closest safe airport. For me the loss of transponders and communications makes perfect sense if a fire. There was most likely a fire or electrical fire. In the case of fire the first response if to pull all the main busses and restore circuits one by one until you have isolated the bad one. If they pulled the busses the plane indeed would go silent. It was probably a serious event and they simply were occupied with controlling the plane and trying to fight the fire. Aviate, Navigate and lastly communicate. There are two types of fires. Electrical might not be as fast and furious and there might or might not be incapacitating smoke. However there is the possibility given the timeline that perhaps there was an overheat on one of the front landing gear tires and it blew on takeoff and started slowly burning. Yes this happens with underinflated tires. Remember heavy plane, hot night, sea level, long run takeoff. There was a well known accident in Nigeria of a DC8 that had a landing gear fire on takeoff. A tire fire once going would produce horrific incapacitating smoke. Yes, pilots have access to oxygen masks but this is a no no with fire. Most have access to a smoke hood with a filter but this will only last for a few minutes depending on the smoke level. (I used to carry one of my own in a flight bag and I still carry one in my briefcase today when I fly). What I think happened is that they were overcome by smoke and the plane just continued on the heading probably on George (autopilot) until either fuel exhaustion or fire destroyed the control surfaces and it crashed. I said four days ago you will find it along that route - looking elsewhere was pointless. This pilot, as I say, was a hero struggling with an impossible situation trying to get that plane to Langkawi. No doubt in my mind. That's the reason for the turn and direct route. A hijack would not have made that deliberate left turn with a direct heading for Langkawi. It would probably have weaved around a bit until the hijackers decided on where they were taking it. Surprisingly none of the reporters , officials, other pilots interviewed have looked at this from the pilot's viewpoint. If something went wrong where would he go? Thanks to Google earth I spotted Langkawi in about 30 seconds, zoomed in and saw how long the runway was and I just instinctively knew this pilot knew this airport. He had probably flown there many times. I guess we will eventually find out when you help me spread this theory on the net and some reporters finally take a look on Google earth and put 2 and 2 together. Also a look at the age and number of cycles on those nose tires might give us a good clue too. Fire in an aircraft demands one thing - you get the machine on the ground as soon as possible. There are two well remembered experiences in my memory. The AirCanada DC9 which landed I believe in Columbus Ohio in the eighties. That pilot delayed descent and bypassed several airports. He didn't instinctively know the closest airports. He got it on the ground eventually but lost 30 odd souls. In the 1998 crash of Swissair DC-10 off Nova Scotia was another example of heroic pilots. They were 15 minutes out of Halifax but the fire simply overcame them and they had to ditch in the ocean. Just ran out of time. That fire incidentally started when the aircraft was about an hour out of Kennedy. Guess what the transponders and communications were shut off as they pulled the busses. Get on Google Earth and type in Pulau Langkawi and then look at it in relation to the radar track heading. 2+2=4 That for me is the simple explanation why it turned and headed in that direction. Smart pilot. Just didn't have the time. That's a great summation (more eloquent then I could provide); thanks. I'd only add that the author is assuming they had instruments (or even controls) to run the approach to Lankgawi. At night, near impossible to fly that thing VFR (visual) over a dark countryside and ocean. They had good weather though, so maybe he could pull it off... maybe not. As a pilot, he may have weighed the risks and decided to kill time until daylight. Recall, the last military radar contact was right near Lankgawi airport also. Then the track goes haywire. Also, logic dictates the pilot would've preferred a lower cruising altitude assuming he was instrumentless. The airways are busy and midairs are always a risk at normal cruising altitudes. Inflight TCAS (traffic awareness) systems typically only work off of transponder; so if that's off, nearby traffic wont be able to avoid and vice versa. Some models have magnetic disturbance modes, but that's a crapshoot and short range. The smarter move would be to stick below 5k feet for safety reasons, and away from approach/departure vectors. The caveat being radar would have trouble tracking. Using that logic, it's not hard to see how MH370 might have gotten mixed up in another aircraft's flight plan even though they never flew it. The ACARS ping data doesnt concur though, assuming it's valid. Youd have to assume he crashed the plane in the sea somewhere between west and east Malaysia. By 8am the data stopped. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: MahrinSkel on March 17, 2014, 06:38:31 PM That scenario has it crashing into the ocean well after dawn and leaving *nothing*. No survivors, no debris, no witnesses, in some of the most active seas in the world. Not to mention being inconsistent with the satellite data, which is the one piece of the whole thing I actually trust. You are not going to dump a plane in the South China Sea or just off northwest Australia and not find anything.
An accident scenario only works on the presumption that the initial problems took out all communications, that flight control was retained for a while and then was also lost before anyone was able to use a cell phone to communicate, and the plane went straight and level heading roughly southwest for a couple of thousand miles with no controls, then *somehow* enough control was restored for a landing soft enough that the plane did not break up, in a manner that few or none made it off the plane into the water with a flotation device. It's plausible that there is debris in the southern Indian Ocean that hasn't been spotted yet. It's even possible that there was a perfect storm of coincidence such that nothing will ever be found, like could have happened with AF447 if they had somehow flown a thousand miles south before going in the drink (there was almost no debris, they only found the crash site because they were in communication almost to the end). --Dave Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: lamaros on March 17, 2014, 07:56:40 PM An improbable chain of events stemming from an accident is still far more likely than an improbably chain of events stemming from some expertly conducted human actions than have no discernible value to anyone as yet.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: MahrinSkel on March 17, 2014, 08:27:36 PM The accident scenario has the advantage that we don't have to try and figure out the who and why, which takes you off into tinfoil territory if you lack the resources of the CIA. Ignoring that, you can also describe a plausible scenario where the plane was deliberately diverted to Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, or Turkmenistan for reasons unknown by parties unknown. Either scenario can only be definitively dismissed by proving the other, since both are improbable and involve unknown antecedents, only in the aftermath can we find any answers.
Playing Sherlock Holmes is fun, either way, but only because nothing we spitball here is going to have any actual effect on either the progression of the search or us personally. --Dave EDIT: This is interesting (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/18/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-flight.html?_r=0). At the same time they are backing off of reports that the ACARS was disabled before the last radio communication (which I ignored because I couldn't find the primary source or an exact timestamp, but many took as 'confirmation' of foul play), Malaysia authorities are now saying that the last ACARS data received shows the Flight Management System (a more sophisticated verson of an autopilot) being given instructions to make the turn over Malaysia. The report says that this is being seen as another indication of foul play, but I am not so sure. If the FMS uses different control runs than the flight controls, you can easily imagine that the pilots, dealing with a fire or other damage, would attempt to use it as a workaround. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: satael on March 17, 2014, 10:27:06 PM An improbable chain of events stemming from an accident is still far more likely than an improbably chain of events stemming from some expertly conducted human actions than have no discernible value to anyone as yet. I think that it's an accident with some one in a million chance thing (that will get changed/fixed once they figure out what it is) mucking up the picture. Making a plane deliberately disappear like this would take a mastermind and planning on level seen only in movies and still have a really high chance of failing. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Ingmar on March 17, 2014, 11:11:41 PM Oceans are big. Really big. It doesn't really stretch credulity at all for the plane to go down without a trace, I don't think.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: KallDrexx on March 18, 2014, 05:34:22 AM Thai radar shows plane turn-around (http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/18/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane/index.html?hpt=hp_t1).
However, the more important part in my eyes: Quote "The unknown aircraft's signal was sending out intermittently, on and off, and on and off," the spokesman said. The Thai military lost the unknown aircraft's signal because of the limits of its military radar, he said. If true it definitely adds another data point to equipment failure Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 18, 2014, 06:07:37 AM I'm not clear what they mean by 'unknown aircraft's signal was sending out intermittently'.
They can't mean the transponder signal because then it would not be an 'unknown aircraft'. The transponder - even if it was only intermittently active - would have shown that it was MH 370 as well as direction height and airspeed. So they must mean radar contact. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: IainC on March 18, 2014, 06:15:53 AM I'm not clear what they mean by 'unknown aircraft's signal was sending out intermittently'. They can't mean the transponder signal because then it would not be an 'unknown aircraft'. The transponder - even if it was only intermittently active - would have shown that it was MH 370 as well as direction height and airspeed. So they must mean radar contact. But military radar works on active pings rather than passively receiving. I suspect that it's simply a case of hedging the language in this case. The military radar was showing a blip in the same space as the intermittent transponder signal. It's reasonable to assume that the blip was MH370 but not a 100% certainty without other corroborating data - especially in such crowded airspace. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 18, 2014, 06:28:17 AM "The unknown aircraft's signal was sending out intermittently, on and off, and on and off," the spokesman said. The Thai military lost the unknown aircraft's signal because of the limits of its military radar, he said.
This doesn't sound at all like they had a transponder signal, it's more like a 'normal' radar contact they lost because the aircraft got out of range Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Ghambit on March 18, 2014, 09:37:03 AM redux:
ACARS only 'pings' like once every 30mins and it's only a few bits for a handshake. Not a lot of power needed. On the contrary, I'd assume the sat-comm would ping more often. It's still confusing which piece of equipment they were using to triangulate. I'll go on the flipside here and surmise the only possible 'hijacker' scenario I might give credence to. I've learned that apparently the pilot can de-pressurize the plane as well as control O2 flow from the oxy generator. Note, the pilot's airsupply is separate typically (I believe it's on a bottle) and lasts much longer, whilst the cabin O2 is run via oxy generator which doesnt last very long - 15 mins or so? So essentially, the pilot (or whoever took over the cockpit) asphyxiated the passengers purposely at altitude (they're dead, so they cant use their phones, storm the cockpit, etc.) After the cabin was asleep permanently, he rushed to a lower altitude before his independent air supply runs out (O2 bottle flowrates at altitudes above 15k are super high) and/or possibly to evade radar. Since ACARS was off at this point, the ground stations wouldn't know what was happening. Pilot diverts to Lankgawi to blend into commercial traffic on his northbound trek, which takes himself over very sparsely populated countries with little to no radar coverage. He eventually lands the plane for whatever use (likely for sale), and since the passengers are already dead they're no trouble to deal with. I'd put this scenario on the younger pilot (the 29 yr. old copilot) only because he would likely be over-stressed with probably a <$30k salary and student/flight-loans in excess of $100k. :tinfoil: As for the transponder. They routinely glitch (happened a few times to me). The flow says to cycle them on/off, and usually that fixes it - this is very common dialogue between ATC and pilot. If the xpndr isnt fixed, sometimes the controller may divert the plane depending on the traffic. Slick controllers won't stress the pilot, so sometimes they say nothing until you're on the ground and they're all like "hai, just FYI your transponder wasnt working on approach" :ye_gods: Controlled airspaces require a transponder except in odd cases. The most common glitch is altitude, because the transponder is usually reading altitude from a transmitting altimeter inside the plane - if both aren't calibrated perfectly you'll get a false reading but usually not more then say 500ft. If you've got clogged pitot-statics like in AirFrance, the xpndr will transmit improperly as well. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 18, 2014, 10:47:18 AM OK now it's getting even more ridiculous:
- Several outlets are reporting that allegedly several inhabitants of a small island in the Maledives saw a 'large commercial jet flying low over the island' on saturday march 8th. Allegedly they reported the incident to local authorities on the same day. - taliban officially denied involvement in the disapperance of MH 370, a 'commander' is quoted as saying that 'we wish we had the opportunity to hijack such a plane' Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 18, 2014, 11:04:17 AM redux: ACARS only 'pings' like once every 30mins and it's only a few bits for a handshake. Not a lot of power needed. On the contrary, I'd assume the sat-comm would ping more often. It's still confusing which piece of equipment they were using to triangulate. The 'all-knowing landfill' (wikipedia) states that ACARS routes messages depending on connectivity over either VHF or Sat-Com. As to the triangulation, all sources I've read talk about satellite communication used to ping so it's either a dedicated satellite-trasnceiver for a dedicated data reporting system or the Sat-Com link of ACARS. It also seems that they've received the signall at two receivers. If they had only received it on one receiver they wouldn't have been able to triangulate anything, with three it wouldn't be a geodesic line. re. power: It's not the amount of power needed to send/receive a ping. That would probably negligable in flight when the generator is on. It's the fact that you couldn't power such transmitters from a small compact internal energy cell. We were talking about whether or not the pings could have still been received even after the plane had crashed/sunk. I deem that to be unlikely. A dedicated locator probably could have, the power requirements of a standard VHF or Sat-Com transmitter are too high for that though. Such a device is connected to mains or a dedicated backup power source that is able to supply the amperage needed to power the transmitter. It's unlikely that it would still function after a crash or major defect. There are also other emeregency systems (portable radios, locator beacons, flight data recorder etc.) on board for such an event so it very likely wasn't a design requirement either.. If the ping was answered by ACARS or another standard reporting system then the plane either landed mostly intact or was still in the air. Which wouldn't exclude the theory that a defect or major incident caused the erratic behaviour. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: IainC on March 18, 2014, 11:29:32 AM The Thais have cast some doubt on the 'climb to 45k then dive to 23k' manoeuvre. They suggested that those readings could be data artifacts and not necessarily valid readings. Partly this is because such artifacts are fairly common but also because there's some doubt about being able to lose that much altitude that fast and still have wings on the airliner afterwards.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 18, 2014, 01:37:16 PM Ok so let's suppose for a moment that what those islanders on the Maledives saw was true and it was really a very low flying MH 370.
How's that for a theory: At the point where air traffic control lost contact the plane ran into some kind of trouble, a major defect perhaps. The pilot starts a descend and wants to turn back to land. The defects are so severe though that the instrumentation is affected. Only option is VFR. Even worse some of the instruments still work but now the crew has to deal with conflicting and possibly incorrect info. After the descend and with no way to contact air traffic control the crew gets lost and flies west instead of east. Maybe by the time this happens the crew is no longer conscious/alive and the plane flies on due west over the indian ocean until it is seen last by the islanders. The only mystery being how radar installations and air surveillance units from several different countries could miss a Boeing 777 flying straight on. Oh and of course what the hell the Malaysian authorities have been smoking to lead us onto a wild goose chase over half the earth Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 18, 2014, 01:53:56 PM and yes I only just realized, that this is exactly what the wired article was saying, even though I've read it.
[edit] It would fit quite well. The Dhaalu atoll where the islanders allegedly saw the low flying plane could be reached by flying due west in a straight line from Langkawi on Pulau, where the writer of the wired article said the pilot crew would be heading. They would have passed south of Sri Lanka though so the air traffic control of Colombo should have noticed it. They deny any contact with MH370 though Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Ghambit on March 18, 2014, 02:17:07 PM The Maldives angle doesn't coincide with the last known (810am) satellite ping data though. That's what's got this entire investigation bottlenecked. Ironically, the satellite is in geosync quite near the Maldives; and the siting there would quite literally be the closest piece of land possible to that satellite.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 18, 2014, 02:50:15 PM There are several ways you can triangulate a position via a radio signal, all of them are very susceptible to interference and/or resolution of time measured. Especially when the distances get large. That's because radio signals travel at speeds that are near c.
- time of flight: measurement of the time it took a signal to reach different receivers. - angle: measure the angle at which different receivers received a signal - received signal strength; if you know the transmit power of the transmitter and the received signal strength at the receiver you can estimate the distance - signal phase: measure the phase difference of the signal you sent out and the reply - round trip time of flight All of those triangulation methods measure values that are susceptible to interference or measurement errors and can give you results that can be off by miles if the data is distorted. If your signal travels at c you'll be off by 1 meter if your time measurement is only off by 3 nanoseconds. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: MahrinSkel on March 18, 2014, 03:20:03 PM There are several ways you can triangulate a position via a radio signal, all of them are very susceptible to interference and/or resolution of time measured. Especially when the distances get large. That's because radio signals travel at speeds that are near c. Time of flight is what is used by radar, and is limited in precision to a scale determined mostly by pulse width. Angle depends on the design of the receiver, and can be very precise in some cases (this is what was detected in the satellite pings, accuracy appears to have been fairly rough with an error in the neighborhood of +/-100nm around the lines in the maps I linked earlier). Received signal strength is nearly useless except as a *very* rough indicator of distance when transmitter strength is known and interference isn't a significant factor. Signal phase is only useful in narrow circumstances when you are trying for sub-micrometer refinement of an otherwise known distance (in radar signal phase is used to distinguish moving targets, but that's a whole different thing). GPS uses extremely precise clocks to measure tiny differences in time of flight of signals that are changing in pre-determined ways.- time of flight: measurement of the time it took a signal to reach different receivers. - angle: measure the angle at which different receivers received a signal - received signal strength; if you know the transmit power of the transmitter and the received signal strength at the receiver you can estimate the distance - signal phase: measure the phase difference of the signal you sent out and the reply - round trip time of flight All of those triangulation methods measure values that are susceptible to interference or measurement errors and can give you results that can be off by miles if the data is distorted. If your signal travels at c you'll be off by 1 meter if your time measurement is only off by 3 nanoseconds. --Dave Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 18, 2014, 03:26:54 PM Yeah they even have to compensate for time dilation effects due to gravity, otherwise clocks would shift so much that you'd be off by continents.
I seriously wonder how they triangulated the path and how reliable the info really is. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 18, 2014, 04:42:50 PM I've looked around but I couldn't find any detailed info on how they calculated the positions.
What I could find out is that they probably used multilateration to get to the line they've released. This means that they'd need to calculate the time difference of arrival fpr three receivers or antennas/antenna segments. You basically measure the time difference between the time the signal hits the first antenna/receiver and the time it hits the second antenna/receiver. If you know the exact location of both antennas/receivers you can estimate the location of the sender. One TDoA measurement (two receivers) will only allow you to place the transmitter on a hyperboloid though, you'd need a second TDoA measurement (a third receiver) to get to a geodesic (the intersection of those two hyperboloids) and three TDoA measurements (four receivers) to pinpoint an exact location in 3D space. As it seems they only received the ping on one geostationary satellite though (marked on the map, right over the maledives) which means that the ping would have needed to hit three different antenna segments or spot beams on the same satellite, they'd need to know the exact distance of those antenna segments from each other and they'd need to be able to measure the time difference of arrival for each of those segments with a certain precision. It's not that hard because you can do a wave count and measure phase shift between those signals, which is easier than if you needed to precisely measure times with nanosecond resolution but still. Another problem I have with the picture is that it doesn't show a geodesic line. If they had two distinct TDoA measurements the result would be basically a straight line that connects the two points where both hyperboloids intersect. On a spheroid a straight line is always a geodesic line (shortest line following the curvature). The image looks as if it is the line that is created when one hyperboloid intersects with the surface, though. Which implies only a single TDoA measurement. That would mean that, at least theoretically, the plane could be anywhere on the 35° circle the red line is on. They've probably only marked the area the plane could realistically have travelled given its remaining fuel supply. I still would have liked for them to disclose how they came up with that line. I hope that at least the nations that take part in the SAR operation have the data and can verify the accuracy. I also wonder why they didn't calculate similar intersections for the other data pings they must have received. Maybe they could have shown the direction the plane was travelling. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Korachia on March 19, 2014, 03:10:23 AM Here is an elegant yet simple theory of this whole debacle: http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/ (http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/)
An electric fire, and a pilot's attempt to handle it by getting to the nearest airport might be the explanation. (Edit: oh it's already been posted - sorry for that. Carry on) Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Ghambit on March 19, 2014, 07:40:26 AM I've looked around but I couldn't find any detailed info on how they calculated the positions. What I could find out is that they probably used multilateration to get to the line they've released. This means that they'd need to calculate the time difference of arrival fpr three receivers or antennas/antenna segments. You basically measure the time difference between the time the signal hits the first antenna/receiver and the time it hits the second antenna/receiver. If you know the exact location of both antennas/receivers you can estimate the location of the sender. One TDoA measurement (two receivers) will only allow you to place the transmitter on a hyperboloid though, you'd need a second TDoA measurement (a third receiver) to get to a geodesic (the intersection of those two hyperboloids) and three TDoA measurements (four receivers) to pinpoint an exact location in 3D space. As it seems they only received the ping on one geostationary satellite though (marked on the map, right over the maledives) which means that the ping would have needed to hit three different antenna segments or spot beams on the same satellite, they'd need to know the exact distance of those antenna segments from each other and they'd need to be able to measure the time difference of arrival for each of those segments with a certain precision. It's not that hard because you can do a wave count and measure phase shift between those signals, which is easier than if you needed to precisely measure times with nanosecond resolution but still. Another problem I have with the picture is that it doesn't show a geodesic line. If they had two distinct TDoA measurements the result would be basically a straight line that connects the two points where both hyperboloids intersect. On a spheroid a straight line is always a geodesic line (shortest line following the curvature). The image looks as if it is the line that is created when one hyperboloid intersects with the surface, though. Which implies only a single TDoA measurement. That would mean that, at least theoretically, the plane could be anywhere on the 35° circle the red line is on. They've probably only marked the area the plane could realistically have travelled given its remaining fuel supply. I still would have liked for them to disclose how they came up with that line. I hope that at least the nations that take part in the SAR operation have the data and can verify the accuracy. I also wonder why they didn't calculate similar intersections for the other data pings they must have received. Maybe they could have shown the direction the plane was travelling. I had similar thoughts, but since the satellite is right over the maldives the geodesy is near symmetrical (more like an ellipse really) from there. e.g. the spotbeam is nearly the same distance all the way around. We are assuming the beam geometry is exactly the way the media presents it though; which is unlikely. For all we know that beam may actually be obliquely pointed towards the east. Whole thing seems fishy to me because there's so much missing data. Like you said, there should be other data pings (every 30 mins minimally). The fact that there isn't tells me that Inmarsat might be looking to backpeddle from their calculations... or arent that confident in them. edit: I'd been following a tad on reddit and I dont believe even they are attempting to parse the possible data. It'd be an interesting project; if I werent so hammered with school and applications I'd fool with it for fun. But, I'm sick like that. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: IainC on March 19, 2014, 08:06:50 AM It was explained previously in an article about the ACARS thing and satellite keep-alives, that previous pings aren't stored, they are overwritten with the latest data. Actual data is presumably stored wherever the satellite forwards it to but the handshake and keep-alive stuff is rewritten every time a new ping is received..
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: HaemishM on March 19, 2014, 08:20:40 AM Since "serious" news outlets are considering theories up to and including the literal hand of God (http://www.mediaite.com/tv/don-lemon-cnn-guest-wonder-whether-something-supernatural-happened-to-malaysian-plane/), I think we're all comparatively reasonable here. --Dave :facepalm: :argh: :argh: :argh: :mob: Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: 01101010 on March 19, 2014, 08:39:23 AM Since "serious" news outlets are considering theories up to and including the literal hand of God (http://www.mediaite.com/tv/don-lemon-cnn-guest-wonder-whether-something-supernatural-happened-to-malaysian-plane/), I think we're all comparatively reasonable here. --Dave :facepalm: :argh: :argh: :argh: :mob: (http://i.imgur.com/uBHBAs4.jpg) There's..........something onthewing! :why_so_serious: Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Ghambit on March 19, 2014, 09:02:34 AM It was explained previously in an article about the ACARS thing and satellite keep-alives, that previous pings aren't stored, they are overwritten with the latest data. Actual data is presumably stored wherever the satellite forwards it to but the handshake and keep-alive stuff is rewritten every time a new ping is received.. Makes sense. Now to be 'splaining that to the media who keeps harping on the fact there isn't more ping data. Latest theories has our military and Australia's leaning towards the southern arc now (that's where we sent the sub-hunter). The search box is much smaller though it's all the way to the southern Indian Ocean. They derived it simply by using point of last contact, available fuel/range, and point of last sat-ping. If you overlay all that you come up with the new search box. (http://www.independent.co.uk/incoming/article9194712.ece/ALTERNATES/w620/16March_MalaysiaPlaneweb.jpg) Note: this route comes from the NTSB: (http://www.abc.net.au/news/image/5329096-3x2-700x467.jpg) I took it a step further and dead-reckoned a possible scenario if they were diverting to Lankgawi and failed on Autopilot. Note, the above box is 11 days old so it's been shifting steadily Eastward due to currents/wind. Actual splashdown occured more to the WNW, which supports the claim. If you line it all up, a failed approach to Lankgawi corresponds exactly to a splashdown in that position. Similar could be said of Andaman airport, but it's a tad far imo and the approach angle doesnt line up as well: http://tinyurl.com/nn9lcx4 Note, currents arent terribly swift in that spot. Matter of fact, just to the north is a doldrum. It wont have moved far to the east w/o the wind. Maybe I'll plot more later. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: IainC on March 19, 2014, 10:04:27 AM Here's the article about the satellite ping data. Source (http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-263.html#post8383477)
Quote I note many posts referring to earlier pings and asking the question why no information has been released concerning anything other than the “last ping.” Maybe I can shed some light on this. Summary 1) It is most unlikely that data relating to anything other than the most recent ping would be retained onboard the satellite, and 2) Each ping must necessarily contain an unique identifier. Communication satellites generally use time division multiple access (TDMA) to enable them to service many “clients” simultaneously. This works as follows: the satellite allocates time slots to each client for them to uplink their data, so that in normal operation client A transmits a brief burst of data then Client B, client C and so on. The whole sequence repeats many times per second in so-called frames. For this to work, the sat’ needs to keep a record of all its potential clients and the time slot(s) allocated to each one. This is the TDMA scheduling table and it is maintained by the satellite’s on-board computer. Periodically, the satellite broadcasts a channel access frame, inviting any new client wanting to use the satellite’s services to identify itself and the services it wants to access. The timing of the replies received during the channel access frame enables the satellite to work out the most suitable time slot(s) to allocate to that client. Note that in doing so, the satellite has implicitly calculated the round-trip time for radio waves to that client. Once a client (aircraft, sat-phone, etc.) has established channel access it periodically pings the satellite to check its time slot allocations. (Hello this is client XYZ. My time slot is 36ms after the frame. Is that still OK?) If the client has moved significantly, the satellite may notice the timings have changed and update its TDMA tables with a new time slot for that client. Note that all of this TDMA stuff is merely to maintain access to the satellite if needed and has nothing to do with actual data transfer, which is negotiated separately as and when needed. The operative word is update in that paragraph. When the tables are updated, previous values are overwritten and lost. There would be no reason to log or down-link all the technical details of the TDMA protocol as that information has no commercial value to the satellite operator. When a client falls silent, its entry will remain in the TDMA tables until expunged to make room for a new client. It would appear that Inmarsat were able to interrogate their bird before this happened and down-link the data for MH370. Unless the satellite was logging useless, out-of-date information, this record would contain only the most recent ping data. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Shannow on March 19, 2014, 10:34:49 AM To tie it back to f13 (however vague)..its all the fault of video games (http://boston.com/news/world/asia/2014/03/19/thai-radar-might-have-tracked-missing-plane/v3mc1lHX52mDQVe2vVdXaI/story.html).
The guy did have a pretty nice flight sim setup (which I'm too lazy to post a pic of). Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 19, 2014, 10:51:13 AM I don't get the media's angle on that particular bit of info either. They now analyse everything that would be normal or at most slightly weird behaviour as suspicious just because something has happened.
If I would expect anyone to have a sophisticated flight simulator setup at home it would of course be a pilot. Especially in a part of the world where access to a commercial simulator might be problematic. That he might have trained approaches or landings on airports in Oceania or Asia is also not unusual. he is flying those routes so better to be prepared. It's also not at all weird that he has deleted files from his computer. Everyone of us deletes countless files each day. I expect that nothing will come from this angle of investigation, except the knowledge that a 777 captain owned a personal flight simulator. If they'd have found a book called 'how to steal a jetliner' or '101 ways to crash a plane into the ocean' they might be on to something but right now it seems like normal if slighly odd behaviour and nothing else Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Shannow on March 19, 2014, 10:53:44 AM shhhh, you're ruining the NARRATIVE!
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Ghambit on March 19, 2014, 11:16:55 AM You're forgetting this is a dirty Muslim event and the pilots are brown. :oh_i_see:
If we wanna go there though, again, the co-pilot would be the one to look at. The Captain was evidently a devout atheist (per his fb page), more of a techno-geek then anything else. The co-pilot was a religious muslim and likely a financially strapped one at that. He was also the last one on comms. Tenured major airline pilots who do not believe in god and have a family at home do not purposely steal or crash a plane. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: lamaros on March 19, 2014, 08:36:54 PM http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-20/abbott-says-possible-objects-found-mh370/5334314
Quote "New and credible information has come to light in relation to the search ... in the south Indian Ocean," Mr Abbott told Parliament during Question Time. "The Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA) has received information based on satellite imagery of objects possibly related to the search." Still calling accident. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Ghambit on March 19, 2014, 10:21:22 PM Yah this is being verified as we speak. Gonna take the aircraft a while to get onsite though. The object measurements are consistent with one of the wings (24mts). If it turns out to be true, that means the plane didnt disintegrate upon landing and maybe there were survivors... though they'd be dead from exposure after 14 days. :(
edit: gonna have to wait for verification from a nearby merchant ship (a few hours away). The way that works (recall I am a boat captain), is essentially the coast guard says "you need to get your ass over there." Whatever you were doing, you basically have to drop (the unwritten code of the sea and all that). I've been re-tasked before a few times - mostly for broke down weekend warriors, but once to pluck 2 half-drowning kids out the inlet. Another time I found an immigrant raft. And another I found something I cannot discuss publicly. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 20, 2014, 01:00:58 AM I don't feel guilty speculating since I'm a mere forum dweller and bored. The mystery is also always more fun and interesting than the dire reality.
On the other hand though it seems to me that the official invetigation was also so engrossed in its owm theories about foul play and 'ermergerd terrrer' that they've dismissed the most likely explanations. Remember they searched indian ocean and the northern corridor first, even though the path of the plane would have made indian ocean or southern corridor more likely. Maybe they could've made a difference if the information about a the likely flight path had been made available sooner and the australian authorities had reached the seatch area sooner. Maybe the whole style of reporting and discussion about the event would even have been different then. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: calapine on March 20, 2014, 08:05:51 AM The Malaysian information policy certainly wasn't opitmal.
Another info-graphic: (http://i.imgur.com/yykI1Q7.jpg) Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Ghambit on March 20, 2014, 04:19:10 PM Okay, the below flight route link surmises some of my thinking (now that I've sat down and examined the avcharts). It starts at point of last contact and ends at the current search location (west-northwest of the current debris, given drift patterns). Note: you can zoom in/out and change from IFR lo/hi and VFR charts. VFR will show you more actual 'visual' information while the IFR will show you more flight lanes and so forth. The thinking is (shortly after losing contact with the plane halfway to vietnam), the pilot made the emergency turn home and activated the updated emergency route. He would've chosen the nearest airport with enough runway and a safe enough approach.
Langkawi was a good initial theory, but upon researching that strip - it requires an approach on runway 03 (northbound) due to terrain. Also, there are no published navpoints that'd allow the plane to end up where it theoretically is now, assuming a southbound approach. So my next thought was Narathewat; a southbound approach there would line up pretty well with the current crash location (though it would require a left turn after that waypoint); the problem with this theory is on its way south it would've put it over Kuala Lumpurs main radar complex. The plane would've been detected. Then I thought maybe Narathewat was the initial point for another further along, and I found Panang and Butterworth. Assuming a southbound approach for Panang, if you line that up with a published IFR flight route, you come up with Alor Starr as the approach point. It lines up absolutely perfectly. Basically the computer would fly those NDB/VOR routes until it ran out of waypoints and from thenceforth simply keep the plane straight and level at altitude until fuel runs out. Assuming a cockpit fire that got bad enough, the pilots would have no GPS to go by and the AP would be left to do all the work either through a standby passive GPS or internal guidance using compass with aforementioned land-based beacons at those particular airports. All after the pilot initially inputted them into the FMS. You might be thinking why not just use the published intersections instead of the airports (like the infamous GIVAL or LEVAT). Well, the reason is those intersections are largely 'virtual' in this case. There is no ground transmitter there so the plane would only be able to fly those assuming the GPS is still working; though if the system had enough triangulation from land-based beacons, it is doable (I had such a system in my plane, called an RNAV; it was awesome). Given the pilots likely lost most instrumentation, I doubt they'd input a virtual intersection for navigational purposes. Then you might be thinking well wouldnt those fields pick the plane up on radar? Nope. Those airports are closed then and radar service isnt really manned except by request (unlike kuala lumpur). Tower services are definitely not manned, though you can get approach radar service if needed. Even if there's someone sitting at their station in the wee hours (not likely), guess what... at FL (flight-level) you'd fly right over the top of those radar's service areas (out of range). Literally, you'd hear not a peep from the tower most times unless you were on a flight-following program (flight plan). Since this flight was diversionary, there would be no such scheduled flight plan, hence no such communication. Even if the radar operator saw the plane, so what... it's not their jurisdiction to supply contact to a craft at FL350 (35000ft). Butterworth is the closest station, but again it's closed and if manned - it tops out at FL245. So you see the dilemma here with regards to the reliability of radar info. from this region. Moving on, the plane is just flying the waypoints with no pilot input. It flies right over the final waypoint at Panang from Alor Star w/o pilot input and heads for the south indian ocean. Not a single radar station is within range of this flight path, so the plane is lost. http://skyvector.com/?ll=-17.58538323336866,108.83496092729055&chart=302&zoom=14&plan=F.WS.IGARI:N.VT.NT:V.WM.VAS:G.-38.50519139625133,92.55102538098568 disclaimer: just my geeky conjecture on what might've happened. It's not what I necessarily 'believe' happened, but it's a possible theory. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: calapine on March 20, 2014, 05:05:57 PM I like it :)
One question From looking at your map I guess you think the flight path from Malaysian primary radar returns (IGARI-VAMPI-GIVAL-IGREX) is wrong and sort of a red-herring? Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Ghambit on March 20, 2014, 06:03:27 PM I like it :) One question From looking at your map I guess you think the flight path from Malaysian primary radar returns (IGARI-VAMPI-GIVAL-IGREX) is wrong and sort of a red-herring? Yes, I've somewhat given up on those per the wishy-washiness of the reports. They also dont jibe with what the pilot might've done if an emergency nor do they jibe with the preferred southern route now coveted by everyone. (they just dont believe Indian and Chinese radar would've missed it). I supposed it's possible if the pilot was still under command up until IGREX. He'd be accepting the course changes while fighting the problem until they were overcome on a 'free-return' trajectory near southbound, wherein the AP was just flying a course rather then a waypoint. We're getting into pilot-error territory at this point because really... the plane just needs to be on the damned ground pronto. Though it's not hard to see given the conditions (night, terrain, etc.) that they might've decided to roll-the-dice out there mistakenly. My first thought was initially that actually (on pg. 1), because really... the odds are way against you trying to get that thing down no instruments at night even with a fire - even though that'd turn out to be the wrong choice. That's the way flying is. I've been a hair's-breath away from making the wrong choice b4. I heard conflicting reports on if the pilots need to accept a course change in order for the system to run it. Typically via GPS the pilot is gonna need to say 'yah.' But via NDB/VORs and such, I think it just happens automatically like in my plane. The AP doesnt know the difference and the RNAV just goes to the next point w/o input. This would only matter when deciding when the plane went 'ghost.' The GPS can fly whatever the heck course it wants also, so all my talk about land-based navpoints and such dont mean much if it's functional and the pilots can still press 'accept.' Most of the accident-theorists think that the screens likely went dark though, even if GPS itself still was active... and they were flying via beacons and 'steam gauges' as I've surmised. Not sure how independent the FMS is from the pilot after programming either. In a nutshell, no one has a clue. :oh_i_see: Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: rk47 on March 20, 2014, 07:09:52 PM (https://i.imgur.com/gIQhzPp.jpg)
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Ghambit on March 20, 2014, 11:40:06 PM Here's a timing uncertainty update:
Quote Officials have revealed a new timeline suggesting the final voice transmission from the cockpit of the missing Malaysian plane may have occurred before any of its communications systems were disabled, adding more uncertainty about who aboard might have been to blame. Malaysian Airlines CEO Ahmad Jauhari Yahya said an initial investigation indicated that the last words heard from the plane by ground controllers - "All right, good night" - were spoken by the co-pilot, Fariq Abdul Hamid. Had it been a voice other than that of Fariq or the pilot, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, it would have clearest indication yet of something amiss in the cockpit before the flight went off-course. Malaysian officials said earlier that those words came after one of the jetliner's data communications systems - the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System - had been switched off, suggesting the voice from the cockpit may have been trying to deceive ground controllers. However, Amhad said that while the last data transmission from ACARS - which gives plane performance and maintenance information - came before that, it was still unclear at what point the system was switched off, making any implications of the timing murkier. addendum: the eastern malaysian field diversion theories are also out because they're only 110nm from point of last contact. A 777 at FL350 needs way more distance/time then that to safely descend. Pilots would minimally have to try the other side of the island. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Ironwood on March 21, 2014, 02:24:00 AM I don't care anymore. Wake me up when the plane's found or the evil plan has come to fruition.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Cyrrex on March 21, 2014, 03:11:34 AM Yeah, I guess I stopped caring a while ago. It is strange how we as humans deal with this sort of thing. People can starve by the thousands and we barely bat an eye, and yet a plane crashes every once in a while and it's like the world comes to a complete halt. Sure, it is a tragedy, and these families could use some closure. But still, thousands of smaller tragedies happen all the time and we all but ignore them.
I chalk it up to our instinctive fear of flying, combined with the thought that someone may have actually done something like this on purpose. No wonder terrorist target airplanes as much as they do: because it scares the shit out of us. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: lamaros on March 21, 2014, 04:49:19 AM I have no fear of flying at all. It's just the mystery.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Ironwood on March 21, 2014, 07:56:07 AM Yeah, I was interested in the mystery at first too, but now it's all 'Fuck it, we're in 2014 and we can't even locate a massive fuck off plane in under 48 hours, so who gives a shit'. As long as Liam Fucking Neeson was onboard, the passengers will be all right.
A Pack of Wolves is Hunting You. It's Ten Degrees Below. It's Neeson Season. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Ghambit on March 21, 2014, 10:55:42 AM Yah, I'm gonna be signing off on this until they find something tangible. Taking up too much of my time lately.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Margalis on March 21, 2014, 03:36:01 PM Quote Taking up too much of my time lately. Are you like...spending multiple hours a day researching this or something? My guess is that it's Sunil Tripathi. He orchestrated the Boston bombing, pinned it on those other guys, faked his own death, laid low for a while, then hijacked this plane. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Ironwood on March 21, 2014, 04:06:44 PM It's quite clear that it's Obama trying to distract from Benghazi.
Or something. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Soln on March 21, 2014, 08:03:59 PM Oceans are vast, dynamic and can easily hold all the conspiracy theories the Internet can dream up. Those poor people are dead and we just need to prove it.
Edit: autocorrect Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Surlyboi on March 21, 2014, 08:06:49 PM Rl'yeh has risen and the plane was Cthulhu's first victim.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: MahrinSkel on March 21, 2014, 08:20:58 PM Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn!
--Dave (If it's all the same to the Ancient Ones, I'd rather be eaten last) Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Stormwaltz on March 22, 2014, 01:17:23 PM (If it's all the same to the Ancient Ones, I'd rather be eaten last) We can only hope that Mythos Survival Horror replaces Zombie Survival Horror as the dominant game meme. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Venkman on March 22, 2014, 01:57:38 PM It's quite clear that it's Obama trying to distract from Benghazi. Or something. Heh (http://mediamatters.org/blog/2014/03/21/even-the-missing-malaysian-airliner-reminds-fox/198562). Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: NowhereMan on March 23, 2014, 01:16:27 AM Current conspiracy theory doing the rounds in Malaysia: It was the Mongolians. Apparently the last Malaysian PM had an affair with the daughter of a prominent Mongolian family and she died due to an accident (?) with a grenade. This was revenge of some kind.
I'm not really sure on the details because talking about this kind of stuff is just a rapid descent into the rabbit hole and I don't want to find out how crazy some of my coworkers are. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Ironwood on March 23, 2014, 04:50:29 AM It's quite clear that it's Obama trying to distract from Benghazi. Or something. Heh (http://mediamatters.org/blog/2014/03/21/even-the-missing-malaysian-airliner-reminds-fox/198562). OH COME ON. I was fucking JOKING !! :uhrr: Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Merusk on March 23, 2014, 06:14:11 AM Were you, or were you just trying to distract us from the real story. That these terrorists were the same ones that masterminded Bengazhi and you're in cahoots!
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Numtini on March 23, 2014, 02:00:06 PM I'm liking the Mongolian explanation.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Kageru on March 24, 2014, 01:31:32 AM Has the US media gotten bored and stopped reporting on it? The sightings of floating debris in the ocean far west of Perth, roughly on the path of the projected southerly arc, looks like it might lead to a result. Though I imagine finding the wreck is still going to be very challenging even if it is there. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 24, 2014, 02:20:46 AM It's basically the worst place to look for a crashed aircraft. It's about 2,600 miles from australia. Literally in the middle of absolutely nowhere. Far off from any land and any shipping lane.
The pacific ocean is also almost 4.5 kilometers deep there. About the same depth actually as the ocean where the AF flight sunk and it took them two years to find and salvage the flight data recorder of that flight. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: calapine on March 24, 2014, 04:56:14 AM It's basically the worst place to look for a crashed aircraft. It's about 2,600 miles from australia. Literally in the middle of absolutely nowhere. Far off from any land and any shipping lane. The pacific ocean is also almost 4.5 kilometers deep there. About the same depth actually as the ocean where the AF flight sunk and it took them two years to find and salvage the flight data recorder of that flight. It's worth nothing it took them 2 years underwater search despite finding floating parts of AF447 on the first day after the crash. In case of MH370 there are already 2 1/2 weeks of drift due to currents and wind to account for. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Chimpy on March 24, 2014, 05:51:59 AM The pacific ocean is also almost 4.5 kilometers deep there. About the same depth actually as the ocean where the AF flight sunk and it took them two years to find and salvage the flight data recorder of that flight. Uhm, that is not the Pacific Ocean where they are searching. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 24, 2014, 06:03:03 AM So still indian ocean?
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Samwise on March 24, 2014, 06:39:19 AM (If it's all the same to the Ancient Ones, I'd rather be eaten last) We can only hope that Mythos Survival Horror replaces Zombie Survival Horror as the dominant game meme. No. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Lantyssa on March 24, 2014, 06:48:41 AM Has the US media gotten bored and stopped reporting on it? Huh? There was a missing plane?We vaguely remember something about that now that you mention it... Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: KallDrexx on March 24, 2014, 06:51:57 AM Has the US media gotten bored and stopped reporting on it? Huh? There was a missing plane?We vaguely remember something about that now that you mention it... You don't remember the alien terrorists? Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Ghambit on March 24, 2014, 09:13:56 AM It's now been confirmed officially that the plane indeed went down right around where the search area is currently; Southern Indian Ocean. Basically the US and the UK were the ones spearheading the data research to come to a final, definitive solution. Evidently, it was a relative certainty the moment they started moving the Kidd (out of the northern area) and the P-8 (to the southern area). UK/Inmarsat then was able to get a true triangulation either with another satellite or (more likely) using doppler shift for a regional bearing.
Families were informed via text msg. :oh_i_see: They've likely known since the 12th, but with all the political wrangling and back-forth between bureaucracies/large-corps there was no way to quickly verify information as it came in. The NTSB had to provide the initial gravitas to get the ball rolling at least; which they did. They are also now reporting a more definitive sudden drop in altitude, just as I suspected in my prior summations. There's still no way they make an eastern airfield in time for an emergency descent though (not sure why the 'experts' would think that), along with likely fighting the problem. In both situations (fire and/or instrumentation blackout) you would make this sudden descent, both to get down quickly and to avoid traffic. It's becoming clearer the plane was flying on FMS until the last waypoint somewhere over western Malaysia, then the AP kept the final heading and alt-hold until flameout. Butterworth's radar data is the key, but no one's really talking about that - which means someone at that station dropped the ball, if there was even anyone there. Supposedly there's a joint AUS/MS military station there, but again, was likely not even manned. You can throw out any relatively sudden turn to the south as there's no way they fly over Kuala Lumpur or Singapore space w/o being seen. Either they flew the route I cited, or they went NW over the Malacca Straits to buy some more time (getting their bearings and fighting the problem) before a final approach southbound, wherein they succumbed... flying indefinitely over BFE. The fuck didnt someone in the cabin help out??? Especially if you've got a bevy of Freescale engineers aboard. Something really, really bad happened on that plane. At this point I'm hoping there was simple a decompression because most other scenarios involve much suffering. The worst would allude to the photo I upped of Egyptair's 777 fire. Cockpit inferno with eventual airframe burn-through. If that happened in-flight you'd get loss of instruments, pilotage, and cabin due to fire and decompression. I'll get on my 'certified aviation' soapbox in another post. A lot of 'wtf, this is the 21st century, how do we lose a jumbo jet' rhetoric on the nets. I have the answer for you and you wont like it. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Merusk on March 24, 2014, 09:19:46 AM Shit. I hope it was a decompression. Otherwise passengers panic knowing you're dead already because the cockpit is gone. Ugh I hadn't even considered that one.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 24, 2014, 09:59:08 AM Whatever it was I suppose it was not a catastrophic event (at first). When the co-pilot signed off everything still seemed to be normal. All of the 'somebody turned off the transponder and ACARS deliberately' talk was likely a relatively slow moving issue. At first systems dropped out the crew likely didn't even notice and by the time they did notice it was probably too late.
Electrical fires are devious bastards. They smolder more than burn due to closed confinement (inside a wall, in a duct etc.) but the wire insulation still provides enough fuel for the fire to not go out. The burning plastic produces poisonous and noxious fumes that creep out of light fixtures, switches, and openings and can incapacitate you and you usually notice it too late. Once the fire has burned through the wall or to an opening it flares up and turns into a full blown blaze. As to 'why didn't anyone do something?'. You know as well as I that it is unlikely somebody would have been able to do anything if the whole crew was incapacitated. They'd have trouble even entering the cockpit if the door was shut and even if you could you'd need a trained pilot to get the thing anywhere and a trained team of avionics engineers or technicians with access to parts and tools to have any chance of fixing something. There's nothing a team of Freescale employees could have done. There's probably not much a team of trained airplane techs could have done if they were on that flight instead. The best safety measure for such kinds of event is simply to make damn sure that something like that must not and cannot happen. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: KallDrexx on March 24, 2014, 10:11:16 AM Whatever it was I suppose it was not a catastrophic event (at first). When the co-pilot signed off everything still seemed to be normal. All of the 'somebody turned off the transponder and ACARS deliberately' talk was likely a relatively slow moving issue. At first systems dropped out the crew likely didn't even notice and by the time they did notice it was probably too late. The best safety measure for such kinds of event is simply to make damn sure that something like that must not and cannot happen. All the talk about the systems going off before the pilot said "goodnight" was a complete mis-interpretation by the media. The truth of the matter is the last ping happened at X, pilot said goodnight at Y, and neither transponder checked in at Z. They don't know when the first transponder actually got turned off they just know that it should have checked back in after the pilot said goodnight but never did. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 24, 2014, 10:31:49 AM I know. If the event had been sudden and catastrophic though the plane would have continued on to the next waypoint and not changed course. If on the other hand any communication system had still worked by the time they descended, they would at least have sent a mayday.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Ghambit on March 24, 2014, 10:43:58 AM The flight crew have access to the cockpit via coded lock. If the pilots became incap., they can still get in. Reason I wonder why someone didnt do something is because it's obvious the AP was still functioning. If you've still got access to it you can still manipulate the aircraft even if the main flight controls are burnt through. Like I said, it's a separate system so indications are it survived whatever happened, including maybe the autothrottle.
I cited the Freescale guys because they'd have the mindset (if there werent other pilots in the plane) to grok the solution aside from the crew. Maybe some of those guys were even familiar with the systems. The fact it was night-time plays a big role (they may have just gotten lost b4 succumbing entirely) but I still believe the cabin had to be incap. as well, which means either asphyxiation from a fire or suffocation via decompression. I read most planes have finished removing their inflight phone service, so MH370 probably didnt have that option. The next is inflight wifi or crew satcomm. None of that was used though. Whole plane had to go 'dark' or people perished somewhat quickly. :headscratch: edit: maybe the AP interface (head unit) was shot but the system itself intact. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Simond on March 24, 2014, 02:24:48 PM I'm guessing Greek ghost plane redux - the crew barely manages to put the autopilot on before they run out of air, which then dumbly follows nav points and carries on flying on the last heading until the engines flame out. In all honestly that's probably the least bad outcome for the crew and passengers at this point - anything else boils down to being trapped, concious, in a flying coffin for hours while you know that you are going to die.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 24, 2014, 02:36:29 PM I'm sorry to say that but at a certain point there's nothing you can do.
I'm intimately familiar with automotive ECUs (electronic control units) I know all of the tools, I've helped develop and bring to market quite a few. I know the tech inside and out. I also wouldn't be able to do anything if I ever was in a vehicle that went out of control on a highway at speed. The tools are so specialized, everything is so complex and so tightly integrated that there is virtually no chance that you could do anything once the plane is airborne. If pulling all of the breakers and relying on fall-back systems or manual controls doesn't help then there's nothing you could do without access to manuals, computers, expensive tools and a dedicated workshop. That is if those Freescale employees even had any experience with avionics systems. The best bet is that enough of your plane is operational that you can get it to ground. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: MahrinSkel on March 24, 2014, 03:01:03 PM Yeah, my ex-wife asked me if there were people inside for 6 hours, why didn't they use the satellite comms the engines were hooked up to, to call for help. Basically, because they would have to have exhaustive knowledge of both satellite communications systems, *and* exactly how it was installed in the 777. There probably isn't anyone in the world who could have done it in less than a week and access to all of the diagrams, and only a few dozen that could have done even that. Doing it on an operating aircraft before the fuel runs out? Forget it, MacGuyver would take one look at it and say "We're fucked". Similar problems with trying to fly the aircraft if the cockpit was gutted by fire, it's not like there's a place you can hook up a joystick.
That's setting aside the question of air, odds are everybody was unconscious or dead long before the plane went into the water. Possibly even before the plane reached the end of the FMS course, which appears to have been programmed by the pilot as a matter of safety procedure. --Dave Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: TheWalrus on March 24, 2014, 03:14:54 PM I'm intimately familiar with automotive ECUs (electronic control units) I know all of the tools, I've helped develop and bring to market quite a few. I know the tech inside and out. So you're one of the bastards on my list!!! :grin: Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 24, 2014, 03:52:00 PM If it were up to me those things wouldn't suck, at least not as much.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: KallDrexx on March 24, 2014, 04:18:39 PM That's setting aside the question of air, odds are everybody was unconscious or dead long before the plane went into the water. Possibly even before the plane reached the end of the FMS course, which appears to have been programmed by the pilot as a matter of safety procedure. --Dave How does the air you normally breathe work in an airplane at 35k feet? Is it a special system that pressurizes the air that once it goes out no more air comes into the cabin? Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: MahrinSkel on March 24, 2014, 05:12:27 PM That's setting aside the question of air, odds are everybody was unconscious or dead long before the plane went into the water. Possibly even before the plane reached the end of the FMS course, which appears to have been programmed by the pilot as a matter of safety procedure. --Dave How does the air you normally breathe work in an airplane at 35k feet? Is it a special system that pressurizes the air that once it goes out no more air comes into the cabin? (http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-N6EX9-j1rr8/UnU3MiJYzGI/AAAAAAAABFM/Bi7ybEv3oh8/s1600/egypt_b772_su-gdb_cairo_110729_2.jpg) If you've got a hole like that in in the aircraft, and can't get below about 20,000, nobody is going to be conscious for long. --Dave Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Ghambit on March 24, 2014, 06:37:34 PM Yeah, my ex-wife asked me if there were people inside for 6 hours, why didn't they use the satellite comms the engines were hooked up to, to call for help. Basically, because they would have to have exhaustive knowledge of both satellite communications systems, *and* exactly how it was installed in the 777. There probably isn't anyone in the world who could have done it in less than a week and access to all of the diagrams, and only a few dozen that could have done even that. Doing it on an operating aircraft before the fuel runs out? Forget it, MacGuyver would take one look at it and say "We're fucked". Similar problems with trying to fly the aircraft if the cockpit was gutted by fire, it's not like there's a place you can hook up a joystick. --Dave The sat-comm I refer to is a simple handset usually located in the attendant's area. You pick it up... you dial. That's it. Since they've taken them out of the seats, you now just ask the attendant. There's likely another one in the cockpit, but since we're assuming the cockpit was unusable, that's a no-go. The ACARS was able to get pinged... assuming the sat-comm uses the same array, it's possible it was still intact along with the inflight wi-fi (also satellite-based). Maybe the main buss went out or something and the subsystems still had power, but there was no power to the head-units. (this has happened to me with craft I've piloted, both air and sea) Many times displays and the like will be on a main buss and the actual unit will be on a more un-interruptable power supply. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: KallDrexx on March 24, 2014, 07:36:03 PM If you've got a hole like that in in the aircraft, and can't get below about 20,000, nobody is going to be conscious for long. --Dave Wasn't there a finding that the plane might have cruised at 5,000 feet for a while? Thanks for the article. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 25, 2014, 01:18:24 AM If you've got a hole like that in in the aircraft, and can't get below about 20,000, nobody is going to be conscious for long. That is an aluminium hull I suppose? If so the fire was at roughly 1200°C (or it would be at sea level). The melting point of 7075 aluminium alloy is lower than that (about 700°C) but it contains 2% - 3% Magnesium which will oxydize once exposed. With that kind of flames burning inside the cockpit breathing is only one of your concerns really Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: angry.bob on March 25, 2014, 07:46:29 PM How does the air you normally breathe work in an airplane at 35k feet? Is it a special system that pressurizes the air that once it goes out no more air comes into the cabin? THe linked Smithsonian article is good but long. The TLDR version is the plane takes in compressed air from the back of the compressor section of the jet engines and after cooling it lets it into the cabin. At the same time there's a valve in the cabin that lets air out of cabin to maintain a set pressure. New air is pretty much always entering the cabin and at the same time exiting via the outflow valve. For less pressure open the valve a little more, more pressure open it a little less. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: KallDrexx on March 27, 2014, 07:45:07 AM Malaysia says there's sealed evidence on MH370 that cannot be made public (http://www.straitstimes.com/the-big-story/missing-mas-plane/story/malaysia-says-theres-sealed-evidence-mh370-cannot-be-made-publ)
:facepalm: Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: IainC on March 27, 2014, 07:59:30 AM Trying to cover up some potentially embarrassing security issue is pretty much the only explanation I can think of for the otherwise baffling information releases from the Malaysian authorities.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Torinak on March 27, 2014, 10:04:30 AM Trying to cover up some potentially embarrassing security issue is pretty much the only explanation I can think of for the otherwise baffling information releases from the Malaysian authorities. Obviously, they have proof of (insert conspiracy theory here) that (powerful group) wants suppressed! It's the only possible explanation, at least from what the media tells me. The real question is whether it's the literal Hand of God, aliens, or (politics). Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Chimpy on March 27, 2014, 10:07:02 AM They are probably covering up some major incompetence rather than some mad conspiracy or criminal actions.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: IainC on March 27, 2014, 10:26:34 AM Yeah, this is where we find out that Malaysia doesn't turn its military radar on unless they are asked to or something.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Ghambit on March 27, 2014, 03:54:18 PM For them, there are a lot of national elements to this crash. Malaysia Airlines is a national carrier, that's been in trouble and bleeding money the past few years; this almost always results in lax internal regulation, which of course leads to negligence, and then an accident. (I've lost friends and relatives in a crash because of this - see: Chalks Ocean Airways).
Then you run into the radar & comms issue. No country can be expected to maintain FAA levels of tracking, not even the UK. This is why intl students come to the US to learn how to fly; there's just no comparison with any other system in the world. Unfortunately, people around the world expect just that... FAA levels of tracking and regulation. They just cant get it. All you have to do is study the avcharts to see that, or even better - learn to fly and fly around in other countries a while. Not hard to get mysteriously 'lost' in these places. To add some perspective, much of the third world literally charges you for each and every comm. you make. Want flight tracking? $20 prease. Oh hai, how's the weather?? $10 dorrar. "When you land, talk to my cousin Loubens about port agency. He hook you up. Make customs real easy. $100 dollah." It's a totally different world. There is definitely an issue with the Butterworth radar though. There's no excuse a joint MS/AUS military station + commercial airport could mistrack and lose a jumbo jet in their space. The conclusion is it's just a 'micky fick' operation. Simple as that. Granted, we're talkin 'redeye' timeframes here, but still. There are expensive national assets (weaponry) on the ground. Either the commercial station should stay open 24-7 or the military one should, or both. Beyond that, the Andaman/Nicobar region lost the plane too, assuming the plane even went there. That's vaunted Indian territory, wherein they're supposed to have this magically impenetrable radar coverage, plus surface command/ships. :oh_i_see: Hence partially why I didnt think the plane even went that direction - you now see the news updating their tracking graphics to show this... the plane just fades out over Butterworth. It's the third world. :shrug Why should we expect more, really. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: MahrinSkel on March 27, 2014, 04:32:58 PM And now you know why I found it completely reasonable to think that the plane could have crossed into China via Bangladesh and flown through western China unobserved. I know what it takes to maintain the "No sparrow shall fall" level of radar coverage the US has, and that even comparatively high-tech countries in Asia have nowhere near the same level of coverage.
--Dave Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: ajax34i on March 27, 2014, 04:54:46 PM Unrelated comment: so what you're saying is stealth technology isn't really necessary considering everyone else's level of radar coverage.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Ghambit on March 27, 2014, 04:58:16 PM The problem with that theory is they've gotta get past two Indian ADIZ's to pull that off (along with a lot of charted eastern indian radar coverage)... Adaman and mainland India, even if creeping through Bangladesh (which would be impossible if flying near Dhaka). Also, it's a lot different when aircraft are leaving an ADIZ as opposed to entering. You're ignored if you're leaving, you're an issue if you're entering. This is why if you fly you always try to stay inside the boundary because once you leave you've got to go into a completely different tracking system w/discrete squawk code. If you leave and come back w/o one, the jets scramble.
I suppose it's possible, but definitely not on a direct course and set altitude. Makes me wanna fire up the old F-19 (117) Stealth Fighter sim. :awesome_for_real: Anyone else play that game as a kid? It's awesome and really gives you a feel for radar evasion and planning. edit: not that I'd need that skill or anything :awesome_for_real: Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: MahrinSkel on March 27, 2014, 05:12:57 PM Unrelated comment: so what you're saying is stealth technology isn't really necessary considering everyone else's level of radar coverage. Depends on what kind of losses you're willing to soak up, and how much somebody is specifically looking for you. Even in a pre-stealth era, U-2's over-flying the Soviets would often evade radar coverage without even really trying, simply by flying a hundred miles outside of the direct approach lanes before turning. The Indians? Pfft, outside of the regions facing Pakistan their coverage is a joke, and the Bangladeshis are worse. China, not so much, but most of their serious attention is directed towards Russia.Radar is always throwing off false positives and noise, throw in some weather and operator fatigue and it's easy enough to be missed. --Dave EDIT: Keep in mind, until fairly recently it was trivially easy to fly from Mexico or Canada into the US without anybody noticing. Military-grade approach detection is expensive and until recently manpower-intensive, and most of the latest gear hasn't been exported by anyone yet. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 28, 2014, 12:38:58 AM The reason people learn to fly in the US is that you have lots of open space where there are no settlements for hundreds of miles. So no one is being bothered by the noise and there will be no major catastrophes should a training flight crash.
Germany or in fact most of western/central Europe has facilities on par or even surpassing those of the US that even can be maintained more easily (much less surface area to cover). Yet even the venerable Lufthansa teaches their pilots in its own flight school in the US. This is because it's much easier to schedule and get permits for training flights somewhere like Montana instead of a crowded airspace like Germany. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: NowhereMan on March 28, 2014, 01:39:50 AM Other popular training destinations include New Zealand. Again I'm going to guess related more to uninhabited training space than NZ's incredible radar infrastructure and highly developed Air traffic monitoring systems.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Ghambit on March 28, 2014, 07:18:57 AM Uhhh no. Europeans who have the whole of Europe to fly (and inherently the world) do not come to the US for "open space."
The US practically has an airfield every 20 miles (because of Eisenhower). In this country, in the 50's and 60's mainly, it was largely thought every other family would have a plane and the govt. spent many many billions to push that agenda, aside from being at the forefront of every element of aviation. You cannot fly anywhere in this entire continent w/o being safely in contact with someone/thing on the ground. And when you get on the ground, have full service (fuel, repairs, logistics, EMS, etc.) at just about any point you can think of. On top of all that, aeronautics/aerospace in the US is just flat out the best. It's had its ups and downs due to policy, but its rank has never been in question. Shit, the US's third best aeronautical/space eng. school (MIT) is still better than anywhere else in the world. There is no comparison. None. Not even close. This is w/o even considering NASA or even the military complex; which blow away most every other country just by themselves even on infrastructure alone. That is why people come here to train. To add another perspective, you can be dead in the air w/zero engine power just about anywhere in this country and not break a sweat; even in the "open spaces." Look over your shoulder and there's likely a controlled airfield with repair services you can land. When you land, there's fresh lattes, a crew car, plane washdown/fueling, and a hot stewardess to make your hotel arrangements for you while you check the weather and grab a nap and a blowjob in the fully appointed pilot lounge. Pilots. Here. Are damned spoiled. It's a running joke in aviation. In contrast to all that self-dicksucking though, the US is scaling back its aviation complex. Small fields, even regionals, have been closing all over the country to appease greedy housing developers. Fuel taxes have gotten so high that most G.A. cant afford to fly w/o a taxable business around it. More importantly, it's so deeply regulated now that 'certified' aviation is not even close to being the safest, most efficient way to fly (you see that in MH370). And the A&Ps charge you up the yang for simple repairs (if you can afford the parts). I've gone on record in saying that I refuse to even buy back into certified GA. If I came back it'd be fully experimental. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Fabricated on March 28, 2014, 08:15:12 AM (http://i.imgur.com/fgBvefv.png)
:oh_i_see: Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Ironwood on March 28, 2014, 08:23:57 AM Oh Dear God, is that a shop ? please ?
:ye_gods: Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 28, 2014, 10:33:49 AM Uhhh no. Europeans who have the whole of Europe to fly (and inherently the world) do not come to the US for "open space." So Lufthansa flight training and the German Airforce chose Goodyear, AZ as the site for their flight schools for its urban lifestyle and state of the art infrastructure? I don't think so. Maybe, just maybe, it's the fact that Arizona has a population density of 57 ppl/sq mi and a climate that ensures good weather conditions for most of the year and - unlike Central Europe - is not the most crowded airspace in the world. You can also easily expand into Utah, New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado. That's an area the size of Europe with an average population density of 35ppl/sq. mi. or 1/10th to 1/15th that of Europe. To put it into context. Arizona is almost as big as Germany (80% of the size of Germany), has a population density of the aformentioned 57 ppl/sq mi and operates 12 commercial airports that have more than 2,500 passenger boardings per year, while Germany has a population density of 583 ppl/sq. mi., much more unpredictable weather conditions and operates 39 commercial airports that have more than 10,000 passenger boardings per year (over 500 airports in total). In fact the top 5 German airports combined serve more passengers per year than probably all of the airports in that 5 state area combined. That is a fucking buttload of 'open space' Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: calapine on March 28, 2014, 10:57:46 AM I didn't know about Lufthansa training in the US, but I do know that the Luftwaffe main Eurofighter training-center moved from Germany to the US (Holloman AFB, New Mexico) some years ago. Reasons given were a) round year good weather b) large empty flight zones.
Edit: Kelly did mentioned the "German air force". Missed that, sorry. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Numtini on March 28, 2014, 11:19:32 AM Yeah, I always thought it was the weather. Maximum number of flyable days per year.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Ghambit on March 28, 2014, 11:36:26 AM You're guys are talking specifically about a line-item of an air force, wherein I'm talking about the entire aviation complex. :oh_i_see:
Anyways. Interesting developments with the new search area. Shaved it off an hour basically (685 statute miles less). They've always assumed a low altitude flight, as if it was at FL350 the plane would've flown even further; at max fuel load and performance it should get 7700nm range - 17hrs of flight time. I doubt they put that much fuel in the plane, but no one has that exact figure but officials. edit: yes, weather is a factor when considering AZ or NM. Riddle has their new school in n. AZ btw, mainly because it's near year-round flight weather even better than Florida. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: WayAbvPar on April 02, 2014, 11:09:15 AM Malayasian authorities are now saying we may never know what happened. Is this just ass-covering for incompetence, or did something even worse happen? I just can't shake the feeling that they either fucked up big time in tracking/controlling the flight, or they shot it down or something strange. Did this guy get a new gig?
(http://www.welovetheiraqiinformationminister.com/images/07-minister.jpg) Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Furiously on April 02, 2014, 12:28:35 PM I saw that episode of fringe.....
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Venkman on April 03, 2014, 04:46:28 PM or they shot it down or something strange. Before the whole "world is big"|"that area of uninhabited water is big" mentality set in, my first thought was another TWA800 where MH370 was shot down and nobody wanted to admit it. I'd like to hope that's not the case. I'd like to hope the resources in the area are committed enough to not give up. But it's difficult to imagine an endless search, and the daily updates on "Airline/Country X just spotted via radar/satellite/flyover some debris" are subsiding. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: KallDrexx on April 05, 2014, 09:31:04 AM Supposedly Chinese vessel picks up 'pulse signal' from South Indian Ocean (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/10746529/Malaysia-Airlines-MH370-black-box-ping-detected-reports.html?fb)
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Ghambit on April 05, 2014, 10:30:57 AM Supposedly Chinese vessel picks up 'pulse signal' from South Indian Ocean (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/10746529/Malaysia-Airlines-MH370-black-box-ping-detected-reports.html?fb) This is more likely (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONQlTMUYCW4) (you can hear them constantly through the bottom of most any boat, even w/o a hydrophone) Even more likely, they just heard the depth sounder from another vessel (or their own)... which sounds almost exactly the same as the black box periodic signal depending on how deep you want the sounder to work. (deeper sounders ping slower then shallower ones; about 1/sec). Note: active sonar is different then a depth sounder "ping." The latter is not a ping at all, but a click like the black box. The former is more like the ping from a sub. Any surface vessel would need a towable array to see that deep though (15k feet?); with a long periodic low frequency "blast" to reach the bottom and get a return (if towed shallow). They did say the sound was fairly regular over a period of 1.5 mins. We shall see. AUS didnt seem overly excited to send resources to investigate. :oh_i_see: Recall, the Chinese were silly enough to pluck a jellyfish out of the water thinking it was aircraft debris. These were "seamen" mind you. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: MahrinSkel on April 05, 2014, 11:35:09 AM For reasons that would take this thread straight to Politics, China desperately wants a "Naval Victory" such as being the ones that find the first definitive evidence of MH370. I'm not saying they'd make stuff up, but they're pre-disposed to interpret ambiguous evidence favorably and inexperienced at this kind of operation.
--Dave Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Ghambit on April 05, 2014, 01:26:24 PM That said, they do have much better aircraft for low-speed visual reconnaisance. I love the Ilyushin II's for that purpose.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ilyushin_Il-76 For all the tech. those P-3/8's carry, they're shittastic for search and rescue (small windows, low cockpit vis, higher speed, low-wing interference, higher alt). Those Illyushins can locate anything visually just about, and then drop support resources right on the target (food/water, liferafts, pumps, etc.). It's why the USCG uses modified C-130s and Jayhawks rather then P-3s generally. I kinda hope the Chinese find it first, as it's mostly their citizens involved. Just imagine what the s. Indian Ocean would look like if it was 240 Americans onboard. You'd have the entire 7th Fleet out there. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: calapine on April 05, 2014, 02:45:35 PM For reasons that would take this thread straight to Politics, China desperately wants a "Naval Victory" such as being the ones that find the first definitive evidence of MH370. I'm not saying they'd make stuff up, but they're pre-disposed to interpret ambiguous evidence favorably and inexperienced at this kind of operation. --Dave Well, I can't blame them really. When 200+ of your citizens disappear any government will be pressed to be seen "doing something". For reference, this is current search area and place of the supposed ping: (http://i.imgur.com/gE9mj0f.gif) Off-topic, plane related: Really enjoyed this video of a Pilot's View of Airbus A380 approach and landing at San Francisco (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k3HKN-FWNq0). For starters the view is really nice, San Fransisco is very pretty from above. The video itself is quite well done (lots of different camera perspectives) and quite informative to see how the landing of a modern airliner works. Finally, the pilots are soo cliche German in their dialect and mannerisms...I couldn't help giggling throughout. :grin: Overall well worth watching, 4/4 flaps up! Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Ghambit on April 06, 2014, 09:59:47 PM So I just sat and listened to an entire press conference plus explanation from the US Navy liason and it's becoming fairly apparent that they've likely found the plane (audibly) on the bottom of the sea near the northern edge of the refined search area - this being where the AUS Ocean Shield carrying the US Navy equipment is. The Chinese detection? dunno wtf that was about, but it's been theorized that it might've been attenuated noise from the same northern location over a distance of 300km. Both recorders are located in the tail, so it's unlikely one would've sunk 300km further then the other.
Pretty extraordinary they were able to pull this off, given all they had was the maths to go by... buuuut yah, I think we can assume they had some help from a few nuke subs in the area. There's no way in hell they were coincidentally in exactly the right spot to pull off a surface detection at 3knots in an area that big. A passive listening sub at 30kts can cover way the hell more ground with much better equipment; then direct surface assets via ULF if need be. Best theory now is that the plane hit the water largely in one piece, which sadly will drive the victims' families insane Im sure. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Jeff Kelly on April 08, 2014, 03:08:26 PM Signal vanished. If it came from the flight data recorder it probably ran out of energy.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Tale on April 08, 2014, 03:40:22 PM Malayasian authorities are now saying we may never know what happened. This: Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: RhyssaFireheart on April 09, 2014, 07:43:11 AM Holy hell, that infographic. :ye_gods: It's one thing to have someone say "It's about 3 miles deep in this area" but having it shown like that really brings it home that there are places and things simply out of our reach on our own planet.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Ghambit on April 09, 2014, 07:48:19 AM Signal vanished. If it came from the flight data recorder it probably ran out of energy. Yah, they picked it back up yesterday but given the power profile of the batts they use (lithium polymer evidently) the signal should soon drop out fairly suddenly. Sounds insensitive, but I'm looking forward to a sci-eng based documentary once all this gets sorted out. It really is a triumph of engineering how this thing was found; of course, those who pray a lot will say it's a miracle and so forth. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: WayAbvPar on April 09, 2014, 09:11:24 AM It is the mirror of the failing of engineering that caused the crash in the first place :grin:
Although, as an employee of a Boeing subsidiary, I am praying it is some sort of operational and/or maintenance issue rather than design or manufacture. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Ghambit on April 09, 2014, 09:27:46 AM No, it is the mirror of the failing of the regulated aviation beuracracy, not engineering. Certified aviation is a joke. I'll go into it if you'd like but only if people are interested in that particular soapbox.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Jeff Kelly on April 09, 2014, 01:09:22 PM please do. as someone working in automotive I'm a sucker for stories as to how bad regulations and bureaucracy fuck up other industries. I mean it's hellishly bad in automotive so it must be Even More rodiculous in Aviation.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Merusk on April 09, 2014, 02:58:36 PM Heh automotive regulation: AKA laws to prop-up an antiquated business model and keep stakeholders whole.
See: Telsa vs. Every Automotive Dealer Lobbyist in the US. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Ghambit on April 09, 2014, 07:17:01 PM At least with the auto industry the regulation actually does keep stakeholders whole and prop up an industry. For Aviation, it destroys it. Everything in a certified aircraft (certified aircraft is basically any plane made by a manufacturer that isn't experimental - so Cessna, Piper, Boeing, all that), has to be approved by the FAA/DOT. Everything. Every nut, bolt, rivet, and so forth... including each and every piece of electro-mechanical hardware. Many times, even it's an 'approved' piece of equipment, if you dont have a tag or it comes from an unlicensed station, you've got to fill out a heck of a lot of paperwork (many times requiring a lawyer + fees) and get a special inspection from a field officer; who then in his holiness may grace you with an STC (supplemental type certificate). That item then of course must be installed by a licensed and insured station approved to install that component on that craft.
Now, this might not sound that bad... but the actual effort of getting approved to make/sell anything that goes into a plane is SO cost prohibitive that most companies just dont bother; and when they do they just pass the cost down to the consumer. Examples: -A $75 air cylinder approved by the DOT for O2 (that anyone can buy off the shelf for home use), once it hits the aviation market, becomes a $500 cylinder - even though it's the same regulatory body. So what happens? Most folk will just use 20-yr old overweight steel cylinders or go with a portable system. -A power-supplied xenon landing light vastly superior in every way... if it's not tagged for your plane? Cant use it. Gotta use the 30-yr old $300 bulb that blows every two seconds and goes dim on landing at low RPM. -New built-in GPIRB locators? Cant use em. Gotta stick with old VHF radio systems that no one listens to. Or just use a portable. You've still gotta have the old system in your plane though (and maintain it, get a signature, etc.) -Got a nice FMS you bought from a reputable developer? Too bad, you cant panel mount it nor have it permanent in any way. Gotta stick with the ol' steam gauges; which are barely reliable and again, require signoffs and maintenance... and are more likely to get you killed. -Fuel management? Lolz. Gotta stick with the 30 yr old fuelflow gauge that's broken. Want to replace it? $500. Wanna fix it? Uhh, $500 + your old one. Wut? There's one that a million times better and cheaper?? Too bad. DIE. -Oh wait, you wanna go "all glass" panel?? :awesome_for_real: $40,000 please. Nevermind a $300 panel-mounted Ipad would do the same thing; it's not 'legal' so eff off. Please to be giving $40,000 to your nearest certified dealer/installer. And oh yah, you HAVE to keep up with the proprietary monthly software updates that cost $100 per. Oh, you found vastly superior software?? Lol, too bad. -Solid-state artificial horizon?? LMAO. Did you not hear me when I said DIE? No no, you must keep the 60 yr-old vacuum guage tech. in there... better yet, buy ANOTHER vacuum guage as a backup. And it HAS to be inspected and overhauled every few years. Throw that fancy self-redundant bullet-proof gauge away. DIE! ... and on and on. General Aviation is dead because of this. This is how I sold my plane for more then I paid for it. And my plane was over 30-yrs old. That's how bad the market is for aviation - you have to spend so much money on bullshit that your plane actually appreciates. Planes are the simplest machines we've got. Literal lawnmowers with wings. Cars are more complex. Yet we act like planes are some kind of magic that must be contained and hyper-inflated to keep the muggles away. Nevermind the fact that we re-built this country (New Deal + Eisenhower) under the assumption every other middle-american family would have a small aircraft. That dream died in the Reagan era 80's. The plane you could once buy for $12k new is now a $90k machine used with a $10k yearly maintenance bill attached. It's a sad sad state of affairs. A beautiful, romantic industry rent to nothing and destroyed by bloated govt. and well-to-do NIMBY oligarchs who want to rule the sky alone in their shit-spewing corporate jets. (that are written off at the taxpayer's expense) If I go back to aviation, it'll likely be in an experimental aircraft that I can maintain w/o being questioned. Likely will take an existing airframe and modify to my liking after I get the 'ok' from the manufacturer. And b4 you get snarky and say "well, that's one plane I wont be flying in." Realize that experimental aircraft are by orders of magnitude safer and more efficient then certified aircraft; along with being cheaper to maintain. And that my friends is the real reason it's taken well over a month to locate a $100m jumbo jet in the 21st century. To take it further, it's likely the reason it went down in the 1st place... antiquated, innately flawed equipment that was too cost-prohibitive to re-develop and install. EVERY aviation guru on CNN wants to say this, and they come close to, but never quite have the balls to do so. You may have heard slight hints of it though. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Viin on April 09, 2014, 09:18:11 PM ^^ That's why I went Experimental. When there was an option between "steam gauges" and G1000 all glass in a Cessna 172, the G1000 was ~$75-100k add-on to the $280k base price.
There is a new category being considered for existing aircraft of certain sizes called Primary Category which would allow owner maintenance and install of ATSM approved equipment (not requiring FAA PMA/TSO cert). Would allow you to install stuff like a Dynon PFDs/MFDs for $12k vs $50-80k for a Garmin G1000. (Or install a Garmin G3X non-TSO'ed panel for about $12k if you like Garmin, which I do). Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Ghambit on April 09, 2014, 09:44:41 PM Even the Dynons are getting a bit ridiculous nowadays. I could build the exact same system (with more flexibility) for like <$800+peripherals... complete with synthetic vision, HITS/GPS, weather, traffic, AP-coupling, all that.
FAA spends BILLIONS on shit like ADSB, highway-in-the-sky, etc... then they fail to give the consumer a viable way to use the technology. But they're super quick to the draw when it comes to raising fuel taxes. It's fuckstupid. Dont even get me started on engine modifications. Things that would literally keep you in the air (or keep from setting yourself on fire; like a 10-cent gasketed fuel transducer that isnt located right above a lava-hot manifold) are insanely hard and expensive to put in your plane. And when you do, it's almost always a re-built part because no one makes them new (regulations again); and even then the prices are insane. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: angry.bob on April 10, 2014, 05:24:02 AM Have either of you considered going to night school or whatever and getting an A&P license? The material isn't hard at all to learn and if you can work on a 1960's Volkswagon you can work on an airplane. The only unpleasant thing from when I went was doing airworthiness directive searches and checking serial numbers on everything to see what applied. Having an A&P will let you do a whole lot more yourselves and cut down a ton on maintenance costs.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Ghambit on April 10, 2014, 08:45:43 AM Yah, I know a lot of pilots that have done that. It pretty much solves every issue we have. One pilot I know was able to buy and maintain his own L-29 fighter due to becoming an A&P. There's no way he would've be able to do-so w/o the licensing. The problem with going that route though, is that it requires practical experience... which means you have to apprentice. The guy I referred to b4 just got someone to pencil-whip his time instead. :oh_i_see:
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Viin on April 10, 2014, 09:43:03 AM Yeah the 18-30 month apprenticeship requirement is the killer. I can't spend 30 months working an extra 6 hours/5 days a week to get an A&P. A technical school is better (I think only 18 months?) but usually expensive since they are private trade schools and require 8hrs a day. I'd love to do it though, I'm sure I'd learn a lot.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Jeff Kelly on May 01, 2014, 09:57:30 AM Sinne the story has been completely dropped by all news outlets, does anybody know the current state of affairs?
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: calapine on May 01, 2014, 01:53:34 PM
Here the link to the report: http://www.dnaindia.com/world/report-malaysia-releases-first-preliminary-report-on-missing-flight-mh370-1984083 (scroll down) Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Ghambit on May 01, 2014, 04:01:01 PM The most interesting thing of late has been the new spectral imaging of a possible object on the seafloor in the bay of bengal. Unlikely it's the plane (so they say) but a few people are shitting their pants over that technology right now, for sure. Personally, I bevlieve it needs to be checked out. The data pointing to the current search area was never independently verified; in sci-eng circles we call that "useless data." Until they do, there's no reason not to investigate other options. And like I said, about the pings?? It's still possible they were pings from another craft's sounder (boat, sub, sonobouy, etc.); leading them on a complete wild goose chase.
Would you like to know more? http://georesonance.com/ Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Jeff Kelly on May 02, 2014, 05:21:47 AM Hopefully there will be an FAA report someday that discloses the search details so that interest parties can verify the conclusions made.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Tale on May 07, 2014, 01:33:26 AM The party in government here in Australia is suffering some negative PR on various fronts at the moment. One of their tactics when they need a distraction seems to be "hold an MH370 press conference". Don't listen to us; we actually don't know shit. You've probably figured that out by now.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Jeff Kelly on May 27, 2014, 03:32:44 AM Just a heads up: Malaysia and Imarsat today published the satellite data they used to calculate the trajectory of MH 370.
The disclosure already caused quite a stir among experts. Apparently the document is 40+ pages long but acoording to experst only maybe two or three of them actually contain data meaningful and necessary to the calculation of said trajectory. The other stuff is just 'noise' and irrelevant data. Also even those 40+ pages don't seem to contain everything Inmarsat should have. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Tale on May 28, 2014, 09:54:34 PM Everything we told you was bullshit. MH370 is not in the Indian Ocean.
(http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BoxwfhtCUAAbNLP.png) (read more) (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-29/mh370-search-zone-not-resting-place-of-plane/5487052) Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Cheddar on May 29, 2014, 04:00:28 AM Everything we told you was bullshit. MH370 is not in the Indian Ocean. (http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BoxwfhtCUAAbNLP.png) (read more) (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-29/mh370-search-zone-not-resting-place-of-plane/5487052) Did you read the article? Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: KallDrexx on May 29, 2014, 04:27:50 AM Alien theory still on track!
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Tale on May 29, 2014, 09:23:55 PM Did you read the article? The article didn't exist when I linked to it. There was one line, with "more to follow". Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Abagadro on July 11, 2014, 08:47:55 PM Looks like it almost happened again:
http://news.yahoo.com/united-777-diverts-remote-pacific-island-burning-smell-012414176--abc-news-topstories.html I think I'll steer clear of 777 flights over the pacific for the next little while. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: WayAbvPar on July 12, 2014, 09:45:10 AM Judging from my interactions with Boeing employees, it is a wonder any of them ever get off the ground.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Furiously on July 15, 2014, 12:07:46 PM I'd be more scared to fly on a 787. A catering truck hitting one of them putting stress on the plane that no one can see is terrifying to me.
Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Trippy on July 18, 2014, 02:20:24 PM Flight MH17 discussion moved here:
http://forums.f13.net/index.php?topic=24312.0 Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: jakonovski on June 01, 2015, 08:59:10 AM This feels a bit necromantic, but I stumbled upon a great conspiracy theory: it was the Russians all along!
Like all good ones, this version makes sense. http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/02/jeff-wise-mh370-theory.html Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Hawkbit on June 01, 2015, 09:41:06 AM I'm out of the loop on this one, but what did the Russians have to gain by this?
It makes sense, but it is so dang far-fetched. Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Trippy on July 29, 2015, 11:26:07 AM Part of wing found? (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/malaysia/11771229/MH370-wreckage-found-on-Reunion-matches-Malaysia-Airlines-flight.html)
Quote Fragments of a wing washed up in the French island of Reunion could be wreckage from Malaysia Airlines flight MH370, says aviation expert Title: Re: Flight MH370 Post by: Ghambit on July 31, 2015, 07:26:19 PM Blown out of sky enroute to Diego Garcia.
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