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f13.net General Forums => General Discussion => Topic started by: schild on March 11, 2020, 06:46:09 PM



Title: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on March 11, 2020, 06:46:09 PM
This thread is fit for public consumption.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Reg on March 11, 2020, 06:57:51 PM
Edit: have some class, reg, goddamn

Oh sure Schild. I'll try to remember that in the future.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on March 11, 2020, 07:19:24 PM
It was my bad for forgetting Politics is not visible to guests. I.e. what happens in Politics, stays in Politics.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: amiable on March 11, 2020, 07:36:41 PM
Can we keep the non public consumption thread open to provide information we do not want to be publicly consumed?


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on March 11, 2020, 07:39:42 PM
Sure.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Chimpy on March 11, 2020, 08:00:55 PM
NCAA March Madness is going to be done March Basho style - just cameras for TV allowed to spectate.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on March 11, 2020, 08:03:57 PM
"Limited family attendance" will be allowed (for now) so the stands won't be completely empty:
Quote
I have made the decision to conduct our upcoming championship events, including the Division I men’s and women’s basketball tournaments, with only essential staff and limited family attendance.
https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2020-03-11/ncaa-president-mark-emmert-releases-statement-limiting


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on March 11, 2020, 09:00:19 PM
NBA season suspended after tonight's games:

https://twitter.com/NBA/status/1237917831506857989

(https://i.imgur.com/JfuNKIB.jpg)



Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on March 11, 2020, 09:18:09 PM
Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson confirmed as having coronavirus in Australia.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tale on March 11, 2020, 10:09:44 PM
Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson confirmed as having coronavirus in Australia.

We are replicating this like some kind of.... (http://forums.f13.net/index.php?topic=26152.msg1536473#msg1536473)

P.S. Trump's address has sent US stock market futures down another 4%.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on March 11, 2020, 10:16:46 PM
Yeah this isn't going to work if people continue to post general stuff to the other thread.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on March 11, 2020, 10:21:53 PM
Lol


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tale on March 11, 2020, 11:08:04 PM
Italy is reporting 12,462 infections.
Italy is reporting 827 deaths.

South Korea is reporting 7,755 infections.
South Korea is reporting 60 deaths.

Why does Italy seemingly have a 6.6% death rate (https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)?


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Hawkbit on March 11, 2020, 11:30:28 PM
I don’t have sources but apparently the Jazz player was mocking the virus a few days ago, and licking all the microphones during the post game presser.

Edit: not the funny thread, apologies.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Chimpy on March 11, 2020, 11:31:32 PM
Not licking, he just rubbed them all as he stood up.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tale on March 11, 2020, 11:41:09 PM
Australia is now having a Tom Hanks crisis.

He recently spent the morning on a TV breakfast show, so that TV network just lost all their morning cast and crew to quarantine. The cast and crew of the movie he's been working on are also quarantined. The premier (governor) of the state he's been living in has issued an urgent warning that anyone who's had contact with Tom Hanks needs to self-isolate. Fans who've got autographs, etc etc. Mr nice guy is the perfect virus spreader.

Edit: Turns out he was in my city (Sydney) a few days ago, doing all the tourist hot-spots like Bondi Beach. Meanwhile she performed (singing) at the Sydney Opera House and went on a harbour cruise. Fuck you, Hankses.

Also neither of them would have qualified for testing in the USA.... WHICH BY THE WAY IS PROBABLY WHERE THEY CAUGHT CORONAVIRUS: "the couple returned [to Australia] from a brief trip to the US on March 5"


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on March 12, 2020, 12:09:04 AM
Italy is reporting 12,462 infections.
Italy is reporting 827 deaths.

South Korea is reporting 7,755 infections.
South Korea is reporting 60 deaths.

Why does Italy seemingly have a 6.6% death rate (https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)?

Italy's average age is dumb high.

Also, I'd check smoking rates among the older.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Brolan on March 12, 2020, 12:10:37 AM
CBS late night shows are going on with no audiences starting next week.  I also noticed Colbert did not do his running high five with the audience either.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on March 12, 2020, 01:03:51 AM
Italy is reporting 12,462 infections.
Italy is reporting 827 deaths.

South Korea is reporting 7,755 infections.
South Korea is reporting 60 deaths.

Why does Italy seemingly have a 6.6% death rate (https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)?
Italy's average age is dumb high.

Also, I'd check smoking rates among the older.
Italy does have the oldest population in Europe (depending on how you measure) but it's not, like, outlier high like Japan is. However Italy has a much higher % of older people infected compared to Korea with 76.6% of their cases being 51 or older and 39.2% being 70 or older. In contrast Korea's numbers are 40.2% 50 or older and only 9% 70 or older.

South Koreans smoke more than Italians too.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1103023/coronavirus-cases-distribution-by-age-group-italy/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102730/south-korea-coronavirus-cases-by-age/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_cigarette_consumption_per_capita
http://gamapserver.who.int/gho/interactive_charts/tobacco/use/atlas.html


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on March 12, 2020, 01:27:48 AM
People going through the new deceleration have noticed a few things.

(a) This isn't a blanket ban on Europe. It omits 2 countries where there are 3 Trump properties, namely the UK and Ireland. Both of whom have Covid-19 infections.

(b) There's nothing in the deceleration about 30 days. This is indefinite till the Prez orders it over. Which means he could leave it there till next year or cancel it tomorrow.

(c) It does not ban all travel. It basically halts all Visas. If you are a US citizen or a spouse of one etc, come on in.

Text of the deceleration (https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/03/12/trump-coronavirus-travel-europe-resorts-126808?__twitter_impression=true)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 12, 2020, 02:25:58 AM
The two main reasons why the mortality rate in Italy is high:

The way they treated it in the beginning was “just a flu” and a lot of the elderly got exposed through kids, grandkids and social interactions.

It is centred in one small area that doesn’t have the facilities to handle such an epidemic and due to crisis triage measures and limited resources a lot of people die due to lack of treatment. They simple don’t have enough ICU beds,ventilators and oxygen supply to treat everyone and the staff is exhausted and overworked.

That’s the difference between Italy where it’s basically 12,000 cases in an area the size of New York City and e.g. Germany where it’s 1900 cases spread out over the whole country with no city having more than like a few dozen cases.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 12, 2020, 02:40:08 AM
Also there are allegedly two different Covid strains out there now. A more aggressive one with higher mortality rate and a less aggressive one that causes milder symptoms.

Areas hit by the original outbreak have the more aggressive one while the second wave of infections seem to have more cases of the milder variant.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tale on March 12, 2020, 02:50:41 AM
Holy shit. From my parents who are visiting a town a few hours north. Identifying details removed. I last saw them on Saturday.

Quote
We are fine. Unfortunately we have been in contact with someone with Corona virus on Monday morning at [activity] and were not advised until 30 minutes ago. The others in the group just heard today too. [Name] let the health authorities know and I now have the email.  Isolation until [date] March. We are not sure whether to go home or not. I would like to. Anyway no signs of it yet, but we have been in contact with lots of people at the supermarket and [name] and [name] and more!

Their doctor has summoned them home and will swab them in his car park.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on March 12, 2020, 03:55:05 AM
In addition, Earth is the only planet in the solar system that carries the risk of getting mauled by a bear.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 12, 2020, 03:58:10 AM
We can’t say for certain that there aren’t any space bears on Titan.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Goumindong on March 12, 2020, 04:01:24 AM
Italy is reporting 12,462 infections.
Italy is reporting 827 deaths.

South Korea is reporting 7,755 infections.
South Korea is reporting 60 deaths.

Why does Italy seemingly have a 6.6% death rate (https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)?

Italy's average age is dumb high.

Also, I'd check smoking rates among the older.

The answer is that Italy has 3.6 beds per 100,000 people and did not do significant testing and screening. SK has like 25 beds per 100k and agressively screened people. This means that SK caught a lot more cases and prevented spread to vulnerable populations

While Italy is out of respirators and is letting everyone over 65 take their chances without effective treatment.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 12, 2020, 04:08:29 AM
You can’t compare those numbers because the accounting of what is or isn’t considered an ICU bed varies depending on the country and the criteria they use. There’s no generally accepted set of criteria e.g the US and SK definitions of what an ICU bed means differ.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 12, 2020, 04:12:29 AM
“ Some countries, such as the United Kingdom, have a clear definition, describing Level 3 care (ICU-level care) as patients receiving advanced respiratory support alone, or having a minimum of two organs supported. Many countries do not seem to have any definitions. In the United States, there are no standard definitions, but a proposed system of categorization broadly defined the highest level of care as including “sophisticated equipment, specialized nurses, and physicians with critical care training””

https://accessanesthesiology.mhmedical.com/content.aspx?bookid=1944&sectionid=143521546

Italy only counts level 3 beds with ventilators as ICU


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: amiable on March 12, 2020, 06:32:27 AM
Italy is reporting 12,462 infections.
Italy is reporting 827 deaths.

South Korea is reporting 7,755 infections.
South Korea is reporting 60 deaths.

Why does Italy seemingly have a 6.6% death rate (https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)?

Italy's average age is dumb high.

Also, I'd check smoking rates among the older.

The answer is that Italy has 3.6 beds per 100,000 people and did not do significant testing and screening. SK has like 25 beds per 100k and agressively screened people. This means that SK caught a lot more cases and prevented spread to vulnerable populations

While Italy is out of respirators and is letting everyone over 65 take their chances without effective treatment.

Basically this, Italy let the number of cases spiral out of control without effective mechanisms to slow the spread and the hospital system got completely overwhelmed.  As a result hospitals were forced to triage and basically told anyone over 65 or with a pre-existing condition they are on their own.  That's why you also see such high mortality in Iran.  there is a significant subset of the infected population that will require hospitalization and respirators. If you overrun the system mortality rates spike.  This is why there is this desperate push in the epidemiological community to get folks to socially distance in the US, because we are basically 10-20 days away from this right now.

In a week or 2 we should start seeing waves of bilateral interstitial pneumonia and sepsis at hospitals around the country.

The timing is based on the incubation period (up to 2-3 weeks) and time from onset of cough to very serious symptoms (about 8-10 days). People will seem to do alright and then just crash.

To keep the number of patients from overwhelming our medical system, we need to take drastic measures, like stop congregating in crowds and stay home if you can. If you have flu-like symptoms, self-isolate or wear a mask.

Those of you in the medical field need to prepare. Learn what to look for and how to treat it. Prepare your resources now. And most definitely learn how to don and doff PPE correctly and comfortably.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: 01101010 on March 12, 2020, 06:39:37 AM
Basically this, Italy let the number of cases spiral out of control without effective mechanisms to slow the spread and the hospital system got completely overwhelmed.  As a result hospitals were forced to triage and basically told anyone over 65 or with a pre-existing condition they are on their own.  That's why you also see such high mortality in Iran.  there is a significant subset of the infected population that will require hospitalization and respirators. If you overrun the system mortality rates spike.  This is why there is this desperate push in the epidemiological community to get folks to socially distance in the US, because we are basically 10-20 days away from this right now.

In a week or 2 we should start seeing waves of bilateral interstitial pneumonia and sepsis at hospitals around the country.

The timing is based on the incubation period (up to 2-3 weeks) and time from onset of cough to very serious symptoms (about 8-10 days). People will seem to do alright and then just crash.

To keep the number of patients from overwhelming our medical system, we need to take drastic measures, like stop congregating in crowds and stay home if you can. If you have flu-like symptoms, self-isolate or wear a mask.

Those of you in the medical field need to prepare. Learn what to look for and how to treat it. Prepare your resources now. And most definitely learn how to don and doff PPE correctly and comfortably.

Assuming you have access to the correct PPE and the supplies are there to deal with the coming wave.  :oh_i_see: 


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Yegolev on March 12, 2020, 06:56:27 AM
In this thread, I learned Tom hanks is married to Wilson.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 12, 2020, 06:59:33 AM
Since 1988


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Yegolev on March 12, 2020, 07:02:50 AM
Since 1988

I checked wikipedia and you are correct.

Italy's average age is dumb high.

Also, I'd check smoking rates among the older.

This is probably relevant. People still smoke cigs in Europe. Wife asked why no one was giving a breakdown of demographics of the deceased and I figure it's simple privacy issues. Also relatively small samples.

Since I don't know which groups got it, I can speculate it is a set of unhealthy people or similar and not evenly spread around. By the time we know anything solid, it probably won't matter.

Of course, I live under a rock so maybe we do have demographical breakdowns of some of the fatalities.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Comstar on March 12, 2020, 07:48:34 AM
Italy has a high death rate because they acted too late to contain it. The medical system is overwhelmed and collapsed under the weight.

The US is 10 days behind Italy.

Good luck :(


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on March 12, 2020, 08:36:23 AM
Yeah, people bagging on Italy here in the US bugs me, because they're responding better than we are. At least here in NY we have some action at the state level because Cuomo is a bit nuts (generally in a good way). Also, another factor for Italy is the huge tourist economy, lots of movement from foreigners who both concentrate at tourist sites and move throughout the country. There has been some interesting stuff on reddit from inside Italy. Another factor in Italy's high reporting is that they are now reporting more accurately, unlike the ostrich nations.

The fiancee and I are pretty upset that the library response has been tepid at best. The administration is treating it like the flu, and our maintenance guy (in charge of disinfection and coming up with ideas for implementing) is a hardcore Trumpette. He thinks the whole thing is a liberal scam. So....we're getting ourselves ready to bury the fiancee's 87yr old mom this year (the fiancee lives with her mom, who is frail). So when I say pretty upset, I mean we are livid beyond belief and our funny bones re: the whole situation is nonexistent.

(https://i.imgur.com/ikxfyo8.jpg)

Left, lesions in red. Right, 3d image of lungs and trachea. Not fun even if you are not elderly and will recover from it. Source: https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/coronavirus-x-rays-show-terrifying-21672219


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on March 12, 2020, 10:07:39 AM
Ireland basically shut down all public services, effective tomorrow. Gatherings over 500 people outside and 100 people inside are strongly discouraged. Shops pubs and restaurants are to remain open but to "help with social isolation." We had our first death yesterday, so I'm proud we were excluded from the travel ban to the USA.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Hammond on March 12, 2020, 10:09:34 AM
Pelosi is doing her weekly House Speaker briefing right now. She has provide more concrete reassuring information in 10 minutes than the whole trump administration.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Reg on March 12, 2020, 11:05:28 AM
Justin Trudeau and his wife are isolating themselves after his wife Sophie exhibited a dry cough and fever last night. They're waiting on the test results I guess.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on March 12, 2020, 12:23:42 PM
Link to Pelosi briefing today, for those interested.

https://www.c-span.org/video/?470286-1/speaker-pelosi-stresses-importance-testing-stop-coronavirus-spread


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Lucas on March 12, 2020, 01:54:27 PM
Hey folks,

Today I've returned to Italy after a 7-day trip to Swedish Lapland (think I briefly told you about it in a message). Well, while I was away looks like the situation escalated quickly  :oh_i_see:

I must say that, all things considered, our most unlikely PM ever is doing a great job.
---

While there is a general lockdown in place, I'll be especially careful to avoid anyone (luckily my home is my "office") because how risky my compulsory stays at the airports were (airports are waaay more at risk than the inside of airplanes themselves). I definitely won't see my parents for at least 14 days.

EDIT: Oh, and by the way, THANK YOU FRANKFURT AIRPORT: my Stockholm-Frankfurt flight was basically empty: me, my girlfriend and our two friends got nice seats as far away from others as possible (during our trip it was a constant because planes right now are less crowded of course) but then they put you all together, all close to each other on the bus that brings you to the terminal. Good job.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Raph on March 12, 2020, 02:25:01 PM
On Italy: the other thing that people need to realize is that the vast vast majority of cases there are not concluded. Recovery still takes up to 21 days. And super vulnerable people will sicken and die relatively quickly, causing a spike in the mortality early. CFR is a moving target -- it converges to a final value only after the outbreak is over.

I updated my tracking sheet with the numbers from yesterday which calculate a death rate for *finished* cases. It makes Italy's ten times worse -- but also shows that only 15% of cases have finished.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sY61_M4GhP1MPfCD5dZov9g_5CYIycUPDjdZkGKXwN8/edit

The ersatz confidence value there is just "are there more than 500 cases? OK, show concluded/confirmed for confidence. (e.g., 100% when there aren't any active cases). Are there less than 500? Then multiply that by how close to 500 it is, e.g. concluded/confirmed * confirmed/500." 500 is of course an arbitrarily chosen guess at a statistically valid number.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Lucas on March 12, 2020, 02:40:35 PM
 :Love_Letters: :Love_Letters:

(https://i.imgur.com/yXpp6K3.png)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 12, 2020, 02:45:27 PM
Huawei  also donated millions of ffp masks


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on March 12, 2020, 02:52:42 PM
NY state just banned all gatherings at venues with capacity >500, and reduced legal capacity of venues <500 by half, excluding schools, hospitals, nursing homes and mass transit. Effective 5pm tomorrow, except Broadway, effective 5pm tonight.

Shit just got real here.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Lucas on March 12, 2020, 02:56:25 PM
Anyway, Pornhub won today's medal: Premium version will be totally free for the entire month of March for italian users "...to keep you company during all these weeks at home".

(https://i.imgur.com/QdgT1CY.png)

Thank you Pornhub.

More  :Love_Letters:


EDIT: added proof  :grin:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tale on March 12, 2020, 03:02:48 PM
The Serbian Prime Minister coughing while a journalist asks him about coronavirus.  (https://twitter.com/jenanmoussa/status/1238182607126396931?s=19)

If you want to hear what the coronavirus cough sounds like...


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on March 12, 2020, 03:16:03 PM
The Serbian Prime Minister coughing while a journalist asks him about coronavirus.  (https://twitter.com/jenanmoussa/status/1238182607126396931?s=19)

If you want to hear what the coronavirus cough sounds like...

Clip was cut. he choked on water 2 seconds beforehand. That's why no one was actually concerned.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Raph on March 12, 2020, 03:42:39 PM
Washington State is closing all schools until end of April, press conference at 2pm.

Maryland is also closing all schools.

California just banned all gatherings larger than 250.

Also, all smaller gatherings are required to keep 6 feet distance between people, and if they can't, they're banned too.

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03/12/coronavirus-gov-newsom-says-cancel-gatherings-over-250-statewide/

Quote
Governor Gavin Newsom and public health officials have ordered Californians to cancel or postpone gatherings of 250 or more people statewide through the end of March to slow the spread of the potentially deadly coronavirus disease COVID-19. The new order further calls for canceling or postponing even smaller gatherings where those attending cannot keep six feet apart from each other, and limiting groups of older or unhealthier people more vulnerable to the disease to no more than 10.


Quote
Newsom made clear in a Thursday morning press conference that he considers the order to be mandatory. He acknowledged some questions about the state’s authority, but said “we have tools in our toolkit” if anyone resists.

Quote
The ban — which Newsom’s office announced at 11 p.m. Wednesday — applies to all non-essential professional, social and community gatherings regardless of their sponsor. That includes sporting events and concerts, Newsom said Thursday. It does not apply to activities such as attendance at regular school classes, work, or essential services, or to essential public transportation, airport travel, or shopping at a store or mall. It also does not apply to congregate living situations, including dormitories and homeless encampments. “Essential gatherings should only be conducted if the essential activity could not be postponed or achieved without gathering, meaning that some other means of communication could not be used to conduct the essential function,” Newsom’s office said. The directive also does not include casinos, theaters, and large parks like Disneyland

A few hours later, Disney also announced they are closing.

https://variety.com/2020/biz/news/disney-theme-park-closed-coronavirus-1203531795/


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Rasix on March 12, 2020, 04:15:03 PM
Hmm. Wonder if my son's Little League season actually happens. Of course, Arizona has a history if disregarding any safety suggestions.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tale on March 12, 2020, 04:40:44 PM
The Serbian Prime Minister coughing while a journalist asks him about coronavirus.  (https://twitter.com/jenanmoussa/status/1238182607126396931?s=19)

If you want to hear what the coronavirus cough sounds like...

Clip was cut. he choked on water 2 seconds beforehand. That's why no one was actually concerned.

Thanks I had no idea. Sounded convincing!

Meanwhile you can be healed through the television (https://twitter.com/RightWingWatch/status/1238110096334479364?s=19). Of "whatever else kinda' thing".


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Hammond on March 12, 2020, 05:14:55 PM
Washington State is closing all schools until end of April, press conference at 2pm.



3 counties in Washington are closing schools until April. No others have done so yet.

https://www.seattletimes.com/education-lab/inslee-orders-all-private-public-k-12-schools-in-king-pierce-snohomish-counties-to-close-through-april-24/



Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Brolan on March 12, 2020, 06:14:16 PM
Some good news here in Minnesota.  The Mayo clinic says it developed a new COVID-19 test that gives results within 24 hours.  They just need to get it approved by the federal bureaucracy. 

Once they do they are planning on distributing it all over the world.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on March 12, 2020, 06:23:58 PM
Stanford developed theirs (its?) a week ago :awesome_for_real:

https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2020/03/stanford-medicine-COVID-19-test-now-in-use.html


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tale on March 12, 2020, 07:52:12 PM
If it doesn't exist already, what would also be useful is a test for antibodies, to identify people who didn't really get symptoms and are now safe to go back to work (especially those working in healthcare). That will describe many younger people'e experience with the virus. They may not know they've had it, but identifying them is important.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Chimpy on March 12, 2020, 07:55:04 PM
I read an article about South Korea's testing regime and that they are working on trying to get an antibody test developed.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Rasix on March 13, 2020, 12:54:55 AM
Hmm. Wonder if my son's Little League season actually happens. Of course, Arizona has a history if disregarding any safety suggestions.

Season halted until April 7th. No practices, no hitting sessions, no meetings, no opening day, no games. First game was supposed to be on Saturday and they've been practicing 3 times a week for the past month. Big bummer, but I'm ok with it.

Wonder how hard the head coaches are going to try to cheat at this.

Work just gave us the work-at-home directive until further notice.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tale on March 13, 2020, 02:16:08 AM
Australia's Home Affairs Minister (ex-cop and seeming wannabe Nazi) Peter Dutton has been diagnosed with COVID-19. He recently returned from a trip to Washington DC.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on March 13, 2020, 05:00:07 AM
Quote
Satellite images show Iran has built mass graves amid coronavirus outbreak
Trenches in city of Qom confirm worst fears about extent of the epidemic and the government’s subsequent cover-up

Julian Borger in Washington
Thu 12 Mar 2020 21.52 GMTLast modified on Thu 12 Mar 2020 22.24 GMT

Satellite images of mass graves in the city of Qom suggest Iran’s coronavirus epidemic is even more serious than the authorities are admitting.

The pictures, first published by the New York Times, show the excavation of a new section in a cemetery on the northern fringe of Iran’s holy city in late February, and two long trenches dug, of a total length of 100 yards, by the end of the month.

They confirm the worst fears about the extent of the epidemic and the government’s subsequent cover-up. On 24 February, at the time the trenches were being dug, a legislator from Qom, 75 miles (120 km) south of Tehran, accused the health ministry of lying about the scale of the outbreak, saying there had already been 50 deaths in the city, at a time when the ministry was claiming only 12 people had died from the virus nationwide.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/coronavirus-iran-mass-graves-qom


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tale on March 13, 2020, 06:37:41 AM
Australia's Home Affairs Minister (ex-cop and seeming wannabe Nazi) Peter Dutton has been diagnosed with COVID-19. He recently returned from a trip to Washington DC.

Pic taken 7 days ago. The bald potato-looking guy is our Home Affairs (Homeland Security) Minister who just tested positive for coronavirus.

Maybe he got it from/gave it to Barr or Ivanka?

(https://i.imgur.com/tfzvPxD.jpg)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Comstar on March 13, 2020, 08:03:00 AM
The White House will refuse to test for it, and is now spreading it through the Federal Government.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on March 13, 2020, 08:18:31 AM
Those pants tho


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Gimfain on March 13, 2020, 09:14:27 AM
Swedish govt made a huge declaration regarding covid-19 same day as who declared it a pandemic. As someone that handles finances for a sports restaurant/night club its going to fuck the place properly. There was going to be a large sports event in my town with swedish champions for smaller winter sports and its cancelled. Icehockey and basktball cancelled, european cup cancelled, all company groups cancel, booking for friday and saturday is what we normally have for regular week days, friday lunch we lost 30% of what we regularly have.

I'm doing liquidity calculation now but it would probably be better if I just made job applications instead since this place is fucked.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Samwise on March 13, 2020, 10:22:04 AM
The White House will refuse to test for it, and is now spreading it through the Federal Government.

The fact that Trump refuses to get tested for it is the most wonderful thing ever.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Hammond on March 13, 2020, 10:36:01 AM
I didn't notice the news about Australia's Home Affairs Minister being sick until this morning. Apparently the Brazilian president who met with the President last weekend tests positive for COVID-19 as well.

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/12/815022706/brazilian-official-who-met-trump-last-weekend-tests-positive-for-coronavirus

So my guess is there are at least a few people sick in the Whitehouse right now. Trump has to be going nuts or is medicated out of his mind.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on March 13, 2020, 10:57:00 AM
Yeah, as a former gigging musician, a lot of my friends are about to hit some really hard times. We're trying to promote their music and merch to help smooth the lack of gig revenue, but...it's going to be a hard few months.

In library news, we're getting the first of the impact. I'm about to go to a meeting with the boss about accommodating local students who don't have access to computers and/or Internet. We've also shut down almost half our computers to create distance between users.

The boss is a martyr, we should probably close since we get pretty much every major vector of carrier and vulnerable population here...but that would also shut down Internet access (thus access to a lot of critical online services) to a lot of vulnerable populations, so....good times.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on March 13, 2020, 11:12:26 AM
godwilling this fucking plague kills the gig economy

talk about an actual long-term plague

sorry, that wasn't about musicians, they're just fucked - I'm talking about uber and shit


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Mandella on March 13, 2020, 12:26:51 PM
Swedish govt made a huge declaration regarding covid-19 same day as who declared it a pandemic. As someone that handles finances for a sports restaurant/night club its going to fuck the place properly. There was going to be a large sports event in my town with swedish champions for smaller winter sports and its cancelled. Icehockey and basktball cancelled, european cup cancelled, all company groups cancel, booking for friday and saturday is what we normally have for regular week days, friday lunch we lost 30% of what we regularly have.

I'm doing liquidity calculation now but it would probably be better if I just made job applications instead since this place is fucked.

Yeah the reality of the situation is just hitting around here (west side of Georgia), and people are actually trying to stay home. As a business owner in a service business, this is going to be rough. Of course it would be best to just close up, but it's our and others livelihood, so unless some disaster money is made available to distressed businesses that's not a real option.

But we are making it obvious that everything is being sanitized and cleaned constantly, plus we may increase spacing between tables. So far no outbreaks close by, and we are far from metro centers.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Salamok on March 13, 2020, 12:35:57 PM
I think the Italy higher mortality is mostly because Italy is notoriously bad about organizing anything, they aren't even coming close to identifying how many people in the country were actually infected.  I think the SK mortality numbers probably hold true for many other countries because they seem to be the only ones going out of their way to identify everyone who is infected.  Good care for the seriously affected and paranoid level sanitary practices will save lives but not testing and including 50%+ of the population that is infected will have the greatest impact on the mortality rate statistic (and possibly cause more deaths than anything else because of the mildly effected wandering around not knowing they are spreading it).  

edit - and I don't know what le fuck is up with Austin but there is some seriously zombie apocalypse levels of paranoia going on here while the city/state/school districts have basically been stating for days there are zero newly documented cases in the area until today they released info on 2.  The message has been just keep doing your normal routines and ignore the fact that we just banned public gatherings at the cost of 10's of millions of dollars.  Went to the supermarket for some ice cream last night at 9:30pm and people were lined up and down the aisles with carts overflowing waiting to check out.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on March 13, 2020, 01:04:57 PM
I think the Italy higher mortality is mostly because Italy is notoriously bad about organizing anything, they aren't even coming close to identifying how many people in the country were actually infected.  I think the SK mortality numbers probably hold true for many other countries because they seem to be the only ones going out of their way to identify everyone who is infected.  Good care for the seriously affected and paranoid level sanitary practices will save lives but not testing and including 50%+ of the population that is infected will have the greatest impact on the mortality rate statistic (and possibly cause more deaths than anything else because of the mildly effected wandering around not knowing they are spreading it). 

edit - and I don't know what le fuck is up with Austin but there is some seriously zombie apocalypse levels of paranoia going on here while the city/state/school districts have basically been stating for days there are zero newly documented cases in the area until today they released info on 2.  The message has been just keep doing your normal routines and ignore the fact that we just banned public gatherings at the cost of 10's of millions of dollars.  Went to the supermarket for some ice cream last night at 9:30pm and people were lined up and down the aisles with carts overflowing waiting to check out.

I mean. Austin is being pragmatic. I'm actually more impressed with things here then say, Seattle. Or almost anywhere else. Also Abbot somehow found his balls.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on March 13, 2020, 01:21:32 PM
NY Public Library just closed all branches through the end of the month, starting tomorrow.

I'm hoping we follow suit soon, but our martyr director is the prime advisor to our library system, so we will absolutely be the last in the state to close  :angryfist:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Mandella on March 13, 2020, 03:01:58 PM
 Went to the supermarket for some ice cream last night at 9:30pm and people were lined up and down the aisles with carts overflowing waiting to check out.

I did my regular grocery shopping Tuesday, everything pretty normal. Tried to "run in" since I realized that I had forgotten to pick up some rawhide chews for the dogs last night and found the apocalypse. Toilet paper aisle stripped bare, folks queued up in lines that were going to take an hour to get to a register.

Yeah I put the chews back and left. Sorry doggies.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Fabricated on March 13, 2020, 03:28:34 PM
I went to the store today and it was pretty normal outside of a lot of bottled water being purchased and hand sanitizer/wipes/toilet paper being mostly sold out. They had sold a fair amount of pasta and some other common bunker-type sundries but there was still plenty of most stuff in.

Parking lot wasn't super full at the one I went to, people were pretty orderly, checkout lines were running pretty well. This was at a bit after lunch though. So I dunno what it'll look like after work lets out or the weekend hits.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: RhyssaFireheart on March 13, 2020, 03:35:19 PM
Employer keeps faffing about trying to decide if people will be told to work from home or not.  The rumour mill's been working and per my manager, I'm supposed to plan for an extended WFH situation when I leave tonight.  So take everything I need with me when I head out, except that nothing is official yet and nothing's been communicated to people yet.  And I work for Big Pharma, too.  Yay.  :uhrr:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Hammond on March 13, 2020, 04:25:52 PM
So we are trying to get stuff in order for a portion of people WFH. Unfortunately we are a manufacturer so we have to have people onsite to actually do work. We have a plan in place for who can work from home but the list is roughly 1/3 of our employee count. In our factory people are pretty spread out with only a few people per building. They are trying to make sure we get stuff shipped out as quickly as possible to make sure our customers have what they need in case we have to limit production. So far we haven't had any outbreaks in our area although our hospital has a few confirmed patients from other more rural areas



 


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: MahrinSkel on March 13, 2020, 07:57:27 PM
So we are trying to get stuff in order for a portion of people WFH. Unfortunately we are a manufacturer so we have to have people onsite to actually do work. We have a plan in place for who can work from home but the list is roughly 1/3 of our employee count. In our factory people are pretty spread out with only a few people per building. They are trying to make sure we get stuff shipped out as quickly as possible to make sure our customers have what they need in case we have to limit production. So far we haven't had any outbreaks in our area although our hospital has a few confirmed patients from other more rural areas
 
Might want to create some "Best Practices" training about social distancing (no handshakes/high fives, don't sit close together in break rooms/meetings, etc.).

Maybe amiable can provide some links or advice?

--Dave


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on March 13, 2020, 08:06:34 PM
i have NO idea why people are buying water


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Brolan on March 13, 2020, 08:39:22 PM
Because a tornado, hurricane, or flooding might occur?


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Hawkbit on March 13, 2020, 09:11:27 PM
Folks are panicky in Seattle. Shelves were mostly bare in West Seattle: Trader Joes couldn't keep up and QFC said they were getting truckloads of goods overnight that never made it past 10am. No TP! :) But seriously - its a weird vibe. Nine meals from anarchy.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Mandella on March 13, 2020, 09:31:04 PM
I went to the store today and it was pretty normal outside of a lot of bottled water being purchased and hand sanitizer/wipes/toilet paper being mostly sold out. They had sold a fair amount of pasta and some other common bunker-type sundries but there was still plenty of most stuff in.

Parking lot wasn't super full at the one I went to, people were pretty orderly, checkout lines were running pretty well. This was at a bit after lunch though. So I dunno what it'll look like after work lets out or the weekend hits.

What a difference a day makes. I dropping back into my local Kroger tonight to have another try at the dog chews, and that was the way I found it too. Interesting to wander the aisles and check out what people were stocking up on. It wasn't all junk, but folks are planning on making a load of spaghetti in the next week or so.

I also happened to be walking down the sanitizer aisle while the stockguy was stocking it, and was handed two bottles right from the box.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on March 13, 2020, 10:02:43 PM
Boss actually said that if we close the library to the public, it would be a great opportunity to do staff development.

If we close, staff will likely still have to report to work as normal.

Welcome to my world, working for a martyr. And I say this as one of the prime koolaid drinkers when it comes to the mission of the library.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on March 13, 2020, 10:12:00 PM
My wife's cousin in New York state (not far from New Rochelle, where the quarantine has been) who manages a supermarket said they did more business yesterday and today than they have ever done before. The store is basically empty of almost anything. She said folks were buying Twinkies, Mr. Clean, charcoal, Cheeze Whiz, just about anything you could buy.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on March 13, 2020, 10:36:38 PM
people are buying sesame rolls at costco and those are inedible trash


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: lamaros on March 13, 2020, 10:47:11 PM
My wife's cousin in New York state (not far from New Rochelle, where the quarantine has been) who manages a supermarket said they did more business yesterday and today than they have ever done before. The store is basically empty of almost anything. She said folks were buying Twinkies, Mr. Clean, charcoal, Cheeze Whiz, just about anything you could buy.

This is before manufacturers start getting sick workers and have to shut down production.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on March 14, 2020, 12:17:44 PM
So yeah, after most libraries closed in the state, the federal, state, county, and local governments all declare a state of emergency, and NYLA recommends all libraries close....our director finally closed the library.

But we have to report for work on Monday...


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on March 14, 2020, 12:47:53 PM
My department just became the first state agency to go to skeleton crew/essential operations only, with no timetable on going back to full time mentioned, all because my director asked for the authority and was told she had the authority. That's fucking leadership. Of course, I'm part of IT so am considered essential, but that means I get to work from home all but 1 day a week. We'll only have 1 IT person in the office per day and other essential operations departments will only have 1-2 people in the office at any one time. All public facing operations are closed, all events canceled.

I'm hoping it won't get much worse here (we have 4 confirmed cases in the state, which will likely turn into at least 100+ by the end of the week).


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: 01101010 on March 14, 2020, 03:06:50 PM
Has to run to Autozone a few streets over to grab an oil filter for the car and had Spotify playing. Ads broke in and I got my first taste of one that is using the outbreak to push gear, this one was about laptops and how to best work from home - all while they had sniffing and sneezing and coughing soundbytes firing off in the background.  :oh_i_see:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 14, 2020, 03:25:48 PM
What’s it with humans and toilet paper?

I’ve been shopping today and you still can buy nearly everything in abundance. Well except soap, disinfectant of any kind, canned tomatoes, milk and toilet paper.

Are they building nests? Is this some weird tomato and TP based fetish? A new drug that’s made of alcohol, hydrogen peroxide, cellulose and tomatoes? Aliens?

The amount of TP people bought could pay for a Japanese butt cleaning toilet or a bidet and you’d probably still have money left.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on March 14, 2020, 03:26:37 PM
A good Japanese butt cleaning toilet starts at $3500. So, no? Your ass doesn't stay clean while you're saving up for a toilet.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: 01101010 on March 14, 2020, 03:42:36 PM
A good Japanese butt cleaning toilet starts at $3500. So, no? Your ass doesn't stay clean while you're saving up for a toilet.

Just need a good quart squirt bottle and a few washcloths. $5 and reduces your waste!


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 14, 2020, 03:47:54 PM
A good Japanese butt cleaning toilet starts at $3500. So, no? Your ass doesn't stay clean while you're saving up for a toilet.

They have dropped to sub 1000 over here and nearly every manufacturer of toilet ceramics offers multiple different series of them


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on March 14, 2020, 04:15:39 PM
You can also get kits that attach to existing toilets.



Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tale on March 14, 2020, 06:53:44 PM
Holy shit. From my parents who are visiting a town a few hours north. Identifying details removed. I last saw them on Saturday.

Quote
We are fine. Unfortunately we have been in contact with someone with Corona virus on Monday morning at [activity] and were not advised until 30 minutes ago. The others in the group just heard today too. [Name] let the health authorities know and I now have the email.  Isolation until [date] March. We are not sure whether to go home or not. I would like to. Anyway no signs of it yet, but we have been in contact with lots of people at the supermarket and [name] and [name] and more!

Their doctor has summoned them home and will swab them in his car park.

Update: they're getting swab results tomorrow (Monday Aussie time). They're still not sick, but one person who was in their group has got sick so it' s pretty close thing. Delivered groceries to their doorstep yesterday and waved through the window. Actually happy to see them going through this now, as they'll definitely get treatment if it happens, and they're protected from the virusy world [unless I turn out to be sick and gave it to them via the groceries].


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Hawkbit on March 14, 2020, 07:22:54 PM
Wife had been fighting allergies from our pets over the last few years, so the allergist said we have to wash the dog and (last of three) cat EVERY WEEK. We bought this:

https://www.amazon.com/Waterpik-PPR-252-Shower-Attachment-Bathing/dp/B01N4LM3SV

It doubles as a taint washer really well! Five stars, no complaints.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: BobtheSomething on March 14, 2020, 08:18:35 PM
Those pants tho

They hide her hooves.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on March 14, 2020, 10:23:32 PM
You can also get kits that attach to existing toilets.

this is a little ghetto

A good Japanese butt cleaning toilet starts at $3500. So, no? Your ass doesn't stay clean while you're saving up for a toilet.

They have dropped to sub 1000 over here and nearly every manufacturer of toilet ceramics offers multiple different series of them

Toto Washlet+ Wall-Hung or death. They start at like $2100.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: MahrinSkel on March 14, 2020, 11:17:51 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/14/anti-inflammatory-drugs-may-aggravate-coronavirus-infection (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/14/anti-inflammatory-drugs-may-aggravate-coronavirus-infection)

tldr: Don't take anything for the fever, if you must take something for body aches/headache, take Tylenol. Better plan: Suffer, neither one is going to kill you, and it appears to contribute to it progressing to pneumonia in younger patients. Also multiple similar reports out of Italy and Switzerland.

--Dave


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 15, 2020, 04:44:28 AM
This is a hoax. There’s no evidence that ibuprofen makes the sickness worse. The info has been shared all over the web and claims that it’s from the university of Vienna but they already said it’s fake news and they never issued such a claim.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Cyrrex on March 15, 2020, 06:57:00 AM
i have NO idea why people are buying water

It’s like having a portable bidet when the TP runs out, duh.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 15, 2020, 07:34:53 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/14/anti-inflammatory-drugs-may-aggravate-coronavirus-infection (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/14/anti-inflammatory-drugs-may-aggravate-coronavirus-infection)

tldr: Don't take anything for the fever, if you must take something for body aches/headache, take Tylenol. Better plan: Suffer, neither one is going to kill you, and it appears to contribute to it progressing to pneumonia in younger patients. Also multiple similar reports out of Italy and Switzerland.

--Dave

I unfortunately only have German language sources like the German equivalent of snopes: https://www.mimikama.at/allgemein/coronavirus-falschmeldung-ibuprofen-verschlimmert-covid-19/

This news stems from a popular WhatsApp hoax which claims that the "University of Vienna" has found that anti-inflammatories like Ibuprofen or Cortisone can make Covid19 have a worse outcome.

The university has since debunked this as fake news.

There is currently a hypothesis that angiovascular medication like ACE-inhibitors https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACE_inhibitor  may be harmful in combination like a corona virus infection.

https://www.pharmazeutische-zeitung.de/restwahrheit-in-einer-fake-news-116246/

There is one lancet article from march which elaborates on the hypothesis that diseases that are treated with ACE-inhibitors (cardio-vascular diseases like hypertension) or that affect ACE-receptor expression (e.g. insulin sensitizers for diabetes mellitus) may affect the likelihood and severity of corona virus infections.

This includes ACE-inhibitors like Captopril or Thiazolidinediones like ACtos or Avandia

They speculate that it may also affect Ibuprofen but offer no substantial proof. Right now this is only a hypothesis based on very small and unreliable data set and based on one article.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: MahrinSkel on March 15, 2020, 08:32:22 AM
My apologies, I waited until it was in English media sources before passing it on here, since I can't read the original sources.

--Dave


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Mandella on March 15, 2020, 12:57:26 PM
And in the "this is why we have pandemics" category, I know sooo many people who have taken the school closings as a fortuitous early spring break vacation and are already travelling.

 :uhrr:

Also local Irish Pub is still planning their Saint Patrick's Day party, but they are going to have it *inside* instead of out in the parking lot, so everything will be all right.

 :ye_gods:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on March 15, 2020, 03:44:00 PM
If you're in the US, go read the CDC guidance.

No, seriously.  Go do it. 

Look at what they tell you to do, and what they tell you not to do.  Note what they say nothing about and ask how hard it would have been for the to say, "Don't do that, either."  People are calling others out for being stupid and irresponsible when they're doing nothing ill advised at all in the eyes of the CDC, the experts.

This virus is going to do a lot of damage.  Know what else is?  The people overreacting and doing harmful things out of paranoia, misinformation and fear.  Especially the assholes hording things they do not need that others need right now.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Brolan on March 15, 2020, 05:25:07 PM
Has anyone else been following this drug remdesivir?  it was developed for Ebola but they are testing it on COVID-19 patients.  It may hold some promise.  But it has some nasty side effects.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on March 15, 2020, 05:34:40 PM
It's an utter hail mary for people who are gonna die anyway. It's in super short supply. I suspect in most cases they will let people die, because they don't have any choice anyway. If rich people decide the drug is what they need, the plutocrats will stockpile it.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Mandella on March 15, 2020, 06:42:58 PM
If you're in the US, go read the CDC guidance.

No, seriously.  Go do it. 

Look at what they tell you to do, and what they tell you not to do.  Note what they say nothing about and ask how hard it would have been for the to say, "Don't do that, either."  People are calling others out for being stupid and irresponsible when they're doing nothing ill advised at all in the eyes of the CDC, the experts.

This virus is going to do a lot of damage.  Know what else is?  The people overreacting and doing harmful things out of paranoia, misinformation and fear.  Especially the assholes hording things they do not need that others need right now.

And the link is:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on March 15, 2020, 09:39:17 PM
To be honest it does not look that bad to me.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on March 15, 2020, 11:03:37 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETMmDj3WoAEyFKY?format=jpg&name=900x900)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETMmDj3WoAEyFKY?format=jpg&name=900x900 (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETMmDj3WoAEyFKY?format=jpg&name=900x900)

MGM is closing all of its Vegas hotels and casinos, no set reopen date.

Val(Shit) = real.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on March 16, 2020, 08:39:42 AM
Day 1 of being cooped up with my coworkers while the boss looks for ways for us to interact with the public despite the closure. Should go well when I refuse to do any outreach or meet with patrons in general. Otherwise, why did we close?

I'm sure my tape measure will be very popular, I want nobody in 6' of me, I'm going to be running on the assumption that everyone has been exposed, since nobody has been tested and the cases in NY tripled over the weekend, spreading from the NYC/capitol region  to spots across the state. The most frustrating part is lack of testing, nobody knows how bad (or not) it is.

I'm not a gambler, and the losing stake at this table is the death of my MiL(ish). I'm ok with thinking I'm an over-reacting douchebag at this point.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on March 16, 2020, 08:45:48 AM
I'm ok with thinking I'm an over-reacting douchebag at this point.

This needs to be the fucking attitude about all this shit. If we make it out of this with only a few thousand casualties, I'll quite happily say that "overreaction" probably saved somebody's fucking life.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Brolan on March 16, 2020, 09:06:27 AM
In my small Minnesota town the local bar was just as busy as it usually is.  As long as we have a bunch of idiots acting like everything is normal this thing will spread like wildfire.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Cyrrex on March 16, 2020, 09:27:37 AM
https://twitter.com/iqraanabi/status/1239294114094632961 (https://twitter.com/iqraanabi/status/1239294114094632961)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on March 16, 2020, 11:09:21 AM
Holy shit, she came to her senses at exactly the right time. Just got out of the morning meeting about response and it's uniformly sensible. Except that we have to repost to work at the physical building, but a lot of that is so the part-timers can get paid legally, so it is what it is. I've done many things in favor of them, so I am ok with that. Sort of. I'd rather be home playing minecraft. But I continue to have a career and we're not allowing contact with the public and nobody sits within 6' of me. I took the boss aside and let her know how proud I was of her, she almost broke down and cried.

Meanwhile, in the parking lot during the meeting, a group of teenagers all danced around and acted the fool. Glad they closed schools to keep kids isolated  :why_so_serious: Humans.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Lucas on March 16, 2020, 11:15:09 AM
Went to the supermarket for the first time here in Italy since I returned from my trip abroad (which happened before the lockdown was in place).

It was quite the mystical experience: the one I went in is usually very packed with people at all hours, big parking lot etc. ; today it was the closest thing to a "day-after" movie I ever seen.

Parking lot basically empty, silence, and inside people wandering through the aisles in silence as well, trying to keep the 1 meter distance and whatnot, all wearing useless surgical masks and/or gloves.

Basically, once you are at home, you have two paths:

a) You go the "gung-ho/insane" (but also the healthiest one, yes) route: remove shoes right at the entrance,  sanitize every sealed package you bought along with the bags (as you know, virus sticks onto the plastic and metal surfaces), then you throw your clothes in the washing machine, wash your hands etc.

b) You just avoid touching your face 'til you stored everything into the fridge/wherever else, put away/throw away the bags, wash your hands then just hope for the best (well, yeah, I've always removed my shoes whenever I came back home anyway).

Think I'll take the b) route


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Samwise on March 16, 2020, 11:54:14 AM
Yeah, I'm doing (b), and am ready to quarantine myself aggressively if I show any symptoms.

Checked in on my dad (68) yesterday; he's doing (a).


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Brolan on March 16, 2020, 12:01:59 PM
Michael Osterholm had some interesting things to say on CBS This Morning.  He now believes that the 6 foot rule is not enough and he thinks it spreads further than that from people breathing.  On the opposite side he thinks the spread from surfaces is overblown and the virus is just not infectious from surfaces.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on March 16, 2020, 12:14:52 PM
The surface thing is precautionary. I don't think there's been a single case of transmission that way, and given china there would've been.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: MahrinSkel on March 16, 2020, 12:20:50 PM
The surface thing is precautionary. I don't think there's been a single case of transmission that way, and given china there would've been.
There were several, including one where they dissected surveillance footage from a bus and established that someone who grabbed a pole on the same spot a carrier did (half an hour after that carrier had gotten off the bus) caught it from that.

Surface transmission of common cold coronavirus is well established.

--Dave


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Rasix on March 16, 2020, 12:37:21 PM
I have all symptoms except a fever. It's virtually impossible to get tested in Arizona, however. Yay.



Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on March 16, 2020, 01:22:17 PM
We had a plastic bag ban begin just over a week ago, so groceries like it's 1988! Funny to have the old bag loading skills automatically kick in, I have to step in because the kids today.

One reason we have a measured response to interacting with the public is that we're effectively quarantining books as they come back because we're waiting for the science on surface transmission. Books have both porous and non-porous surfaces, and even if we could wipe down the covers (even if we could buy wipes), we can't clean every page someone may have expectorated upon. We're going on previous coronavirus behavior until we have better guidelines.

Maintaining a 6' isolation zone has been interesting. Most people are respectful, with several clueless (they step forward after I step back). At least none have taken offense, though I clearly see the mental eyerolling in some.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on March 16, 2020, 01:30:22 PM
I have all symptoms except a fever. It's virtually impossible to get tested in Arizona, however. Yay.

My wife's sister in Connecticut is still at Yale Hospital, has lost her voice. 6 days later, she still can't get them to give her a Covid test. They've tested for everything else, INCLUDING the flu, and all those tests have come back negative. Still can't get a test.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Mandella on March 16, 2020, 02:13:11 PM
I personally know one person who has self quarantined. She has symptoms and has properly reported herself to her doctor and been told to just keep doing what she is already doing. No test, so no attempt at officially checking her recent contacts either.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Cyrrex on March 16, 2020, 02:29:41 PM
I personally know one person who has self quarantined. She has symptoms and has properly reported herself to her doctor and been told to just keep doing what she is already doing. No test, so no attempt at officially checking her recent contacts either.

Considering the fact that it is already a global pandemic and the lack of testing.....isn’t that the right approach?  It no longer matters where it is coming from, that phase is over.  And considering the lack of available testing, they cannot afford to test anyone who is not in serious condition.



Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on March 16, 2020, 03:12:10 PM
Most of the San Francisco Bay Area will be in "shelter in place" mode starting at midnight:

https://www.sfchronicle.com/local-politics/article/Bay-Area-must-shelter-in-place-Only-15135014.php

Haven't seen the official announcement from my county yet (local TV news is still showing Trump).

SF announced theirs an hour ago:

https://sfmayor.org/article/san-francisco-issues-new-public-health-order-requiring-residents-stay-home-except-essential


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on March 16, 2020, 03:57:18 PM
Follow all guidelines.  Do your research.  Be informed and proactive.

However, understand that OVERREACTION is DANGEROUS.  It is called OVERreaction for a reason. 

Shutting shit down kills people, too.  It destroys businesses, stops insurance coverage, and isolates people that are in need.  Use your brain, not your fear, and make the smart choices that the experts tell you to make. 

Don't pretend like you know better when you have less information, less training, and are likely far less intelligent than the people actually making the big calls. 

Want an example?  People are buying up all the bottled drinking water. And then they're buying up all the other types of water.  They have running faucets at home but they are going shit crazy and buying up all the distilled water 'just in case'.  However, there are people that need that distilled water for medical devices that keep them safe.  And they can't find it, because overreacting assholes are overly worried that for some unexplained reason they may need extra water, and bought up the stuff that they should not be drinking.

React. Be Smart.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Brolan on March 16, 2020, 05:43:29 PM
Here in Minnesota they are closing all bars and restaurants except for delivery or takeout.  Cases are at 54 with 3 hospitalized.  No deaths yet.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on March 16, 2020, 06:04:36 PM
Canadian friends with all symptoms took the test twice and it came back negative both times, she just has a bad (something else).


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Surlyboi on March 16, 2020, 06:07:19 PM
The wife and I both developed tightness in the chest and she's got a scratchy throat, so far, no fevers or anything else. We're also worried we're being overly paranoid but better safe than sorry.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on March 16, 2020, 06:24:27 PM
Canadian friends with all symptoms took the test twice and it came back negative both times, she just has a bad (something else).
Took the test twice?  When there are not enough tests to go around?  What fucking doctor allowed that?


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 16, 2020, 06:28:32 PM
Not enough tests to go around? Maybe in the US?

We could text 12,000 people per day if we wanted to. Our labs would not do anything else anymore but we could


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Samwise on March 16, 2020, 06:30:17 PM
Not enough tests to go around? Maybe in the US?

We could text 12,000 people per day if we wanted to. Our labs would not do anything else anymore but we could

You have to remember, the US is a third world country that thinks it's still a first world country.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on March 16, 2020, 06:56:55 PM
The wife and I both developed tightness in the chest and she's got a scratchy throat, so far, no fevers or anything else. We're also worried we're being overly paranoid but better safe than sorry.
It's also allergy season now (at least around here) so that's not helping.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: 01101010 on March 16, 2020, 07:12:17 PM
It's also allergy season now (at least around here) so that's not helping.

This right here... I've been sneezing and randomly coughing every day for the past 2 weeks or so and each time it makes me wonder. Last week going to work on the bus, it was all I could do not to cough on the bus and raise suspicion.  :oh_i_see:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on March 16, 2020, 07:19:54 PM
I've been trying out the latest and greatest ramen place* near me since they opened in February and hot soups in general and spicy hot soups in particular give me a runny nose. So people have been looking at me funny while I'm blowing my nose :awesome_for_real:

* they don't / didn't do take out so I skipped last week and they better change that policy if they want to stay in business


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on March 16, 2020, 07:58:40 PM
Ireland has announced that it is expecting a 30% increase in C-19 cases per day. Total of 223 cases right now.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Brolan on March 16, 2020, 08:04:55 PM
Although there have been runs on larger stores in Minnesota our little local grocery store has been immune.  At least until today.  Bread, milk, chicken, ham, eggs, wiped out.  There was some more expensive beef left so I bought that.

This is first time in my 60 year old life I have experienced anything like this.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: 01101010 on March 16, 2020, 08:10:44 PM
I've had only something similar (though on a very minor level comparatively) when prepping for hurricanes when I was in Miami. Though there is always the running joke of "getting the bread and milk" when the forecast calls for snow around Pittsburgh, this is so much worse.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on March 16, 2020, 10:34:43 PM
We're coming off a bad flue season, too, and there are some colds that have been circulating.

I went to the store for the first time in a while, her mom needs a restock and so did I. It's...bad. Paper goods aisle completely empty. Meat bunker and butcher counter...completely empty except for a couple steaks, no frozen veg outside the vegan section (edamame, kale, etc). No hand soap, sanitizer, even stuff like bandaids (??) were devastated. And everything is hit hard, most items are low stock, many completely out. Bread, for instance, there were about 10 loaves of pumpernickel and the same of various ryes...everything else was gone.

The odd thing, though...it's almost all dumb white people stuff. Chicken, steaks, white bread, yogurt, water.

I just shifted gears and stocked up on things that were in good supply, some steelhead filets, frozen shrimp and scallops, chuck roast (no burgers of any kind...but 4 chuck roasts? I have burgers now), etc. Bad time to have a shitty palate, good time if you like to cook?

Main thing is no TP, that's going to be shitty (sorry). I should be ok, but the fiancee her mom (our concern as always) use that plush tp that doesn't last very long...luckily I use old fashioned stuff that goes the distance! Problem is, if this situation doesn't get fixed soon (rationing needs to be mandatory for paper goods, hygiene products, and stuff like milk/water/meats/veg, etc).

So stupid and avoidable.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tale on March 16, 2020, 10:38:33 PM
Holy shit. From my parents who are visiting a town a few hours north. Identifying details removed. I last saw them on Saturday.

Quote
We are fine. Unfortunately we have been in contact with someone with Corona virus on Monday morning at [activity] and were not advised until 30 minutes ago. The others in the group just heard today too. [Name] let the health authorities know and I now have the email.  Isolation until [date] March. We are not sure whether to go home or not. I would like to. Anyway no signs of it yet, but we have been in contact with lots of people at the supermarket and [name] and [name] and more!

Their doctor has summoned them home and will swab them in his car park.

Update: they're getting swab results tomorrow (Monday Aussie time). They're still not sick, but one person who was in their group has got sick so it' s pretty close thing. Delivered groceries to their doorstep yesterday and waved through the window. Actually happy to see them going through this now, as they'll definitely get treatment if it happens, and they're protected from the virusy world [unless I turn out to be sick and gave it to them via the groceries].

Update: my parents tested negative. Phew. They've still gotta complete the 2-week quarantine, which is actually peace of mind for me because it protects them... Give it another week and a bit, we'll probably all be in lockdown.

Work conducted our fortnightly all-staff meeting via Zoom today. There were three people in the office and everyone else in various combinations of pyjamas and smart clothes donned for the meeting. I shaved specially, for the first time in four days.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: MahrinSkel on March 16, 2020, 10:47:27 PM
The TP thing was a bit of hysteria triggered by an actual shortage in a few SE Asian countries that rippled all the way to Australia, then turned into a classic panic buying situation: You had to overbuy if you found it, because if you didn't, you couldn't know when it would be reliably available again.

Most of it is just that buying a two weeks to a month's worth of food at once is something most people don't do, most people only have a few days to a week worth of food at home. Buying 3 packs of hamburger instead of 1, spread across enough people, turns into a stripped bare meat counter when people start seeing the shortages. Beyond that, overbuying was something affirmative you could do to prepare, give people a sense of control in a situation that is completely out of their control.

I've always tended to have more food reserves than most, so most of my prep was on things that I would never have normally bought, and was done mostly weeks in advance. But someone who only woke up to this in the last week, what else can they do? The masks are gone, the sanitizer and disinfectant is gone, all that's left is food (and toilet paper).

That being said, I'm glad I remembered that oxygen concentrators need distilled water, because people desperate to buy bottled water (which is pointless) are buying it up.

--Dave


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tale on March 16, 2020, 11:37:08 PM
all that's left is food

The fucking terrifying situation in the local Aldi today. Freezer section and meat section. This will drive more panic buying when stock comes in.

(https://i.imgur.com/4nAqCE9.jpg)

(https://i.imgur.com/eVYpCMZ.jpg)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Mandella on March 16, 2020, 11:43:52 PM
I personally know one person who has self quarantined. She has symptoms and has properly reported herself to her doctor and been told to just keep doing what she is already doing. No test, so no attempt at officially checking her recent contacts either.

Considering the fact that it is already a global pandemic and the lack of testing.....isn’t that the right approach?  It no longer matters where it is coming from, that phase is over.  And considering the lack of available testing, they cannot afford to test anyone who is not in serious condition.



Well, not according to the World Health Organization, who just yesterday was recommending less "social distancing" and more real tests, including running down and testing previous contacts.

The disease is not past the point of testing being useful in the US yet. In two weeks, it may be.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on March 16, 2020, 11:44:54 PM
https://youtu.be/o_cImRzKXOs


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Surlyboi on March 17, 2020, 12:15:48 AM
That was both uplifting and heartbreaking.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Cyrrex on March 17, 2020, 03:15:35 AM
I personally know one person who has self quarantined. She has symptoms and has properly reported herself to her doctor and been told to just keep doing what she is already doing. No test, so no attempt at officially checking her recent contacts either.

Considering the fact that it is already a global pandemic and the lack of testing.....isn’t that the right approach?  It no longer matters where it is coming from, that phase is over.  And considering the lack of available testing, they cannot afford to test anyone who is not in serious condition.



Well, not according to the World Health Organization, who just yesterday was recommending less "social distancing" and more real tests, including running down and testing previous contacts.

The disease is not past the point of testing being useful in the US yet. In two weeks, it may be.

Yeah, I get it....but practically speaking, that is not even possible any more.  There aren't enough tests available.  Nobody is going to spend time tracking down contacts.  They only have time and resources to deal with the most serious cases (and also rich or connected people).

In DK, they are officially saying that they will not even test anyone who does not have very serious symptoms.  Based on what we know, that could mean that the infected rates is easily 10 times what is being reported.  It has to be FAR worse in the US.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tale on March 17, 2020, 07:57:28 AM
Update: my parents tested negative. Phew. They've still gotta complete the 2-week quarantine, which is actually peace of mind for me because it protects them... Give it another week and a bit, we'll probably all be in lockdown.

The man my parents encountered who had Covid-19 died of it today. They are shocked.

Case apparently consistent with others I've read about: patient aged 80+, hospitalised but appearing to recover, takes a nosedive in week 2 and dies.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Teleku on March 17, 2020, 11:08:46 AM
Sigh, yeah, my boomer father who does a lot of travel across all of Northern California as a sales/contract guy, is in full denial mode.  Talking to me about how our commie governor has the state on Martial law over just a few cases of the disease.  Trying to talk sense into him about the practical reasons this is serious, but going to take stuff closer to home for it to sink in I think.  Which I'm very afraid will be his significant other, who has some serious lung issues (hurray a life of smoking), who will 100% die if she caught it.

Really need some high profile GOP asshole to drop dead from this to at least maybe possibly get the fear of god into that group of people.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Morat20 on March 17, 2020, 11:46:18 AM
I had essential travel (helping my kid move to another state) so I got to embark on a five state road trip and a flight back, complete with eating at lots of resteraunts. The day after I flew back his new state shut down all their restaurants and bars, and today Houston did.

I had to argue with my bosses to work from home for the next week (you know, the sensible thing!)-- compromised on me coming in after hours, when the office is very empty, to do a few 'in person' tasks  and working from home the rest of the time.

Having to fight for that was annoying, because I'd bet money that next week my workplace will move to mandatory "work from home" if it all possible. Which is why I went in last night and ensured I had all the paperwork filed to work from home for the next month and to basically just take my work equipment home to do my job. Hopefully I can pick it up tonight.

Of course my kid is low-key panicked. His company paid to move him, but he can't do his job -- he's there as a manager for a new location for his company, a location that was supposed to open in the next two weeks. They can't hire staff, can't train staff,  they couldn't open on schedule anyways (falling into the "closed by order of the state" because, well, it's a place where people hang out in large numbers), so he's stuck on PTO then unemployment.

I've tried to reassure him -- first off, opening a new location for his company ain't cheap, and they paid to relocate him. He's not first on the chopping block, and the salaries of a few managers (the rest of the staff not being hired yet) is peanuts compared to what they've sunk into building this place, but that's pretty cold comfort, you know? And frankly, it's not like he could be working here -- their locations here just closed as Houston shut down all the same things.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Rasix on March 17, 2020, 01:30:47 PM
My doctor is doing a pretty decent job with this. They see a lot of elderly patients (it's Arizona), so they're saving the handful of tests for them. However, his assistant called 3 times yesterday to check on me, and he called me this morning to see how I was doing. They're only seeing sick patients at 3pm or later.

I'm in the spare bedroom 90% of the day, sleeping anywhere from 12-15 hours a day for the past 3-4 days. Still feel extremely crappy. No fever though. Weird ass time to come down with whatever the hell this is.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Mandella on March 17, 2020, 03:31:53 PM
Sure you guys have seen this, but it gave me a chuckle:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1239624352305303552

"Don't be a spreader."


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on March 17, 2020, 03:33:34 PM
The good: we are finally closing for staff as of tomorrow

The bad: I am one of 2-3 people who will continue to report as usual

booooo

The worst: I get to set up a lot of what enables everyone else to work from home


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on March 17, 2020, 03:44:13 PM
NYC “shelter in place” decision coming within 48 hours:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/new-york-city-mayor-says-shelter-place-decision-coming-next-n1161516


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on March 17, 2020, 04:03:59 PM
The bad: I am one of 2-3 people who will continue to report as usual

Yep - the joys of being labeled IT. We are considered essential staff.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on March 17, 2020, 04:16:33 PM
I've been trying out the latest and greatest ramen place* near me since they opened in February and hot soups in general and spicy hot soups in particular give me a runny nose. So people have been looking at me funny while I'm blowing my nose :awesome_for_real:

* they don't / didn't do take out so I skipped last week and they better change that policy if they want to stay in business
And they started offering take out today so my shopping list for this afternoon is now: allergy medicine, paper towels, zipper freezer bags and ramen for dinner.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Lucas on March 17, 2020, 04:19:29 PM
Talking about Italy, the situation is still in flux: experts are saying that high numbers will undoubtedly keep coming in for at least 5 or 6 more days, then we'll hopefully start noticing the effects of the (almost) total lockdown that was put in place between March 9th and 11th.

There are places where the R0 is higher, like in Lombardy, and the struggle is enormous, then the numbers are very "local" (for example, today it was a "good" day for my hometown of Modena, with only two new cases, 20 in the whole province). We're expecting Covid-19 to hit southern Italy harder in the coming days, because of all those idiots moving from the northern towns to get back to their parents while in panic mode a week or so ago.

The general population is reacting well, trying to adapt to this unprecedented situation. Sure, there are still idiots hanging out at the park together, or moving around for no reason: now, whenever you put your nose out of your home, you have to show this to the authorities if they stop you along the way (there are no fixed checkpoints, but lots of police cars moving around):


You can go outside only if:

- You are heading to work
- Iyou are in a "state of necessity" (going to the supermarket or drugstore, need to assist an elder, walk out the dog and similar situations)
- Health reasons (obviously unrelated to flu-like symptoms)
- you're heading back to your home from wherever you were before

Anyway, glad to see that France, Germany and the UK are finally coming to sense, or so it seems. I'm very proud of how our government reacted to this crisis (and I voted something else entirely back in the day) and the measures they're taking, so it's good to see these other foreign countries adopting very similar ones.

Keep your head up, Rasix  :hulk_rock:



Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: MahrinSkel on March 17, 2020, 04:37:47 PM
Welp, I may be screwed. The grandmother of a classmate of one of my kids is currently in the hospital with "unspecified viral pneumonia", her doctors think it is COVID but they can't get her tested. My kid was sick early last week with an unidentified virus, and my SO was really sick later in the week, we assumed from the same thing (they both tested negative for flu and bacterial infection). I was caring for the kid most of the time, so I'm very exposed to whatever it is.

Fucking irony if I get Coronachan because I wasn't paranoid enough. There were no known cases in the state, but if anyone should have known that didn't mean the state was clear, it's me.

--Dave


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on March 17, 2020, 04:40:57 PM
Keep us posted. Remain in light. Hopes and affection.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on March 17, 2020, 04:52:09 PM
Welp, I may be screwed. The grandmother of a classmate of one of my kids is currently in the hospital with "unspecified viral pneumonia", her doctors think it is COVID but they can't get her tested. My kid was sick early last week with an unidentified virus, and my SO was really sick later in the week, we assumed from the same thing (they both tested negative for flu and bacterial infection). I was caring for the kid most of the time, so I'm very exposed to whatever it is.

Fucking irony if I get Coronachan because I wasn't paranoid enough. There were no known cases in the state, but if anyone should have known that didn't mean the state was clear, it's me.

--Dave
Symptoms?


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: MahrinSkel on March 17, 2020, 04:58:44 PM
Symptoms?
I felt a tickle in my throat a few times last week, and what feels like the beginning of a sinus infection today. Could be something else, could be psychosomatic from obsessing over the symptoms and epidemiology of COVID. Checking my temperature regularly, haven't had a fever. We have an oximeter for the kid's asthma, going to watch that as well.

--Dave


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Surlyboi on March 17, 2020, 05:01:58 PM
We're pulling for you, man.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Lucas on March 17, 2020, 05:07:58 PM
Symptoms?
I felt a tickle in my throat a few times last week, and what feels like the beginning of a sinus infection today. Could be something else, could be psychosomatic from obsessing over the symptoms and epidemiology of COVID. Checking my temperature regularly, haven't had a fever. We have an oximeter for the kid's asthma, going to watch that as well.

--Dave

We will all have to deal with some psychosomatic shit to various degrees in the coming weeks/months, virus or not: that sense of "weight" lingering on your chest along with some shortage of breath, which is (at least in the majority of cases, hopefully) not a sign of your lungs starting to act funny, but just anxiety creeping in, which is totally understandable and again, we'll just have to cope with it.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: MahrinSkel on March 17, 2020, 05:11:57 PM
Yeah, that's why I'm watching for fever and O2: They're not subjective, I can't fool myself into thinking they aren't what the machine says they are.

--Dave


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Abagadro on March 17, 2020, 05:14:25 PM
The locked down my building today so no one can go in without having temperature checked for fever. Why this isn't happening all over the place I don't know.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on March 17, 2020, 05:34:10 PM
Learn the symptoms.  Dry Cough.  Shortness of Breath.  Fever. 

Learn the treatment protocol.  For most of us, it would be: Isolate yourself, watch Netflix, and try not to injure yourself masturbating too much (generally, if you draw blood, you've gone too far).  They specifically do NOT want most of us to go to the doctor is we're symptomatic unless we present significant impacts.  Keep the virus isolated.

Whether ill or healthy: Stay the fuck away from people with compromised health, whether from medications, medical issues, or age.  However, don't treat them like lepers - call them.  Video chat them.  Unlike most of us, they actually have something to fear.  Help them feel better - and a big part of that will be helping them avoid fear.

If you get it, and you do not have clear and obvious elevated health concerns (age, disease, medical issue, being an asshole with a karma bill coming to get yer ass), remember that you've got a significantly greater chance to die in an auto accident (1 in 77 in the US) than you do to die of COVID-19 (1 in 200) according to the best stats we have - which are based upon confirmed cases of COVID which likely mean that the 1 in 200 is far too high as a lot of people are bugging through this thing with just minor discomfort - and are likely not even reporting it because they're too afraid to admit to themselves they have it.

And if you have purchased more than two cases of TP in the last month - yes, you're an asshole.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Chimpy on March 17, 2020, 05:42:27 PM
Colorado ordered all ski resorts in the state closed on Saturday. By Sunday morning, resorts elsewhere started closing like dominoes.

I was at Big Sky in Montana with my ski club and on Sunday morning they sent out a press release saying "we are closing at the end of business today, all resort owned retail and food outlets included." They are letting lodging guests stay until the end of their booked time (or this coming weeekend, whichever is earlier) but then are totally shutting down on Sunday. All the seasonal employees are being summarily laid off and kicked out of the staff housing at the end of the week as well.

My friend who was rooming with me and I had a car rental for the week rather than using the airport shuttle so we ended up driving back to Illinois in a mostly straight shot. To help keep myself awake as I was driving through MN on I-90 I counted the vehicles I encountered going the same direction as me. I had a total of 6 trucks and 4 cars between Sioux Falls, SD and the Mississippi river on the other side of MN. Sure, 1-5AM is a slow time on the interstate but I have never, even driving interstates that are low traffic even during the daytime gone 70 miles without seeing a single vehicle going the same direction before.

Everyone stay safe.

Also, an interesting note that was not publicized as far as I can tell: it appears that US cell carriers have opened up the networks you can roam on considerably. I am on Sprint and never have I had roaming coverage on a GSM carrier but on Sunday morning I was suddenly seeing AT&T LTE as the carrier with full signal in Montana rather than the spotty "Extended 3G" that I had been seeing the previous day. At a couple points I had AT&T 3G come up as the carrier while I was driving back.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Mandella on March 17, 2020, 06:14:12 PM
Sigh, yeah, my boomer father who does a lot of travel across all of Northern California as a sales/contract guy, is in full denial mode.  Talking to me about how our commie governor has the state on Martial law over just a few cases of the disease.  Trying to talk sense into him about the practical reasons this is serious, but going to take stuff closer to home for it to sink in I think.  Which I'm very afraid will be his significant other, who has some serious lung issues (hurray a life of smoking), who will 100% die if she caught it.

Really need some high profile GOP asshole to drop dead from this to at least maybe possibly get the fear of god into that group of people.

Your dad is a right winger right?

You might want to mention to him that Trump himself seems to be taking it seriously now (after earlier characteristically dismissive remarks).

So is Newt Gingrich. And I don't know if Buzz Aldrin is GOP, but he is an old geezer and he's quarantined himself -- "Lying on my ass with the door locked!"

I mean, it ain't just the California commies that are recognizing we have a problem.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on March 17, 2020, 06:19:29 PM
Italy is turning out to be the case to pay attention to. Another bad day but the key thing is that it wasn't a *worse* day. It was just as bad as the previous two days. The sequence of partial and then total lockdowns in Italy is having an effect.

People are not good at thinking counterfactually which is costly in this case. Because here I think the lesson has to be: imagine if Italy had just said, hey come on it, the water's fine, no biggie, go have dinner, ride your scooter, ciao.

Yesterday would have been a new peak. Today would have been a new peak. Tomorrow would have been a new peak. And the peaks would be so peaky that they would intensify the mortality because of no beds. There are going to be people after this all calms down who will not be able to see that what's being done right now if it's done right will save an enormous number of lives.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Lucas on March 17, 2020, 06:40:21 PM
Yeah, something that you always have to remember is that, when talking about daily counts, especially when measures are being actively taken and frequently change,  you're not talking about present time or future, you're talking about what happened in the *past*.

And unfortunately, 10 days or so ago people in Milan, for example, were still actively meeting, dining and socializing in the popular "Navigli" area and so on and so forth.

While a total lockdown was immediately put in place in the Codogno and Vo' Euganeo areas at the beginning of the outbreak (the so called "red zone"...By the way, as of yesterday there were no new cases in Vo' Euganeo, and I think it's the same for Codogno, but they're very tiny towns, approx. 3,300 and 15,000 people), with "carpet swabbing" throughout the entire population (asymptomatics too, of course, something they aren't doing anymore here in Italy), the government then decided to take a "step by step" measure, because they explicity mentioned that they couldn't realistically expect a brutal lockdown (I'm talking about Wuhan style) to be so easily understood and digested in such a short time.

Not that it took 2 or 3 weeks, we're talking 10 days max between the progressively limiting lockdowns. I mean, for us next step would be fixed checkpoints with the Army in place. with something akin to your U.S. FEMA starting to bring food to the general population. I REALLY hope it won't come to that, but like I said, it seems that we're more or less doing our homework right now :P


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on March 17, 2020, 06:58:04 PM
For the most part, people started locking down pretty much immediately here in Ireland. There has been a LOT of pushback on shutting the pubs, but in reality pubs and hotels were shutting themselves before official orders came through. I went to my favourite Restaurant last Thursday because, and I said this to the woman who owns it, I wasn't sure if that night would not be the last opportunity for a while.

Of course you had those gobshites in Dublin who swarmed the Temple Bar nightclub district on Saturday night, but out in the country it seems to have been a very orderly shutdown. Rural people here are crap in some ways but in others they are very pragmatic. If it has to be done they dig in and do it, no messing.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tale on March 17, 2020, 08:22:20 PM
Australian government announcement today:

- travel advice raised to maximum "Do Not Travel" for entire world

- "prepare for at least six months of disruption to daily life"

- non-essential gatherings of 100 or more people indoors are banned


Meanwhile we continue to draw a curve of stupid (https://www.covid19data.com.au/):

(https://i.imgur.com/J6zWVDz.png)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on March 17, 2020, 08:41:19 PM
The more stupid, the longer the pain of quarantine/social distancing is going to be, generally.

Or the longer the bleeding out of any health care system--government or private--will be. If if you'd been spending some gross extra amount of GDP on health you might have found this pretty overwhelming (South Korea). But fuck, the worst case scenarios in the US and a few other places are just fucking awful if everyone just goes out and does whatever they want for months.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on March 17, 2020, 08:41:50 PM
lol at all the 15s and 20s k


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on March 17, 2020, 09:08:22 PM
69 more cases confirmed in Ireland, bringing the total to 292.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tale on March 18, 2020, 01:46:50 AM
lol at all the 15s and 20s k

That was our "It's going to be just fine. We have it totally under control." [Donald Trump, January 22]


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tale on March 18, 2020, 01:47:19 AM
69 more cases confirmed in Ireland, bringing the total to 292.

nice


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Cyrrex on March 18, 2020, 02:22:40 AM
DK now forbidding gatherings of 10 or more people publicly.  All retail and restaurants closed except for food stores, pharmacies and take-away.  Strict regimen required for such places to continue to operate (spaceing, gloves, sanitizers, etc.).  Online shopping already under obvious pressure, virtual lines forming, out of stock, extended delivery, etc.  I expect the next 48 hour or so is a good time to ignore it all.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Abagadro on March 18, 2020, 02:26:57 AM
Apparently the R0 on this is worse the lower the humidity, so BYEEEEEEEEEEE from the desert.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: lamaros on March 18, 2020, 02:43:06 AM
I'm moving home in two weeks, so I've put off buying stuff for the last month. Hopefully the hoarders will be done by then.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on March 18, 2020, 02:48:45 AM
Apparently the R0 on this is worse the lower the humidity, so BYEEEEEEEEEEE from the desert.
I thought everybody in Utah keeps at least a year's worth of food and essentials stockpiled. Okay, maybe that's just the Mormons, but they should have plenty to share with the non-Mormons right? :awesome_for_real:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Surlyboi on March 18, 2020, 03:03:08 AM
Mnuchin apparently told a bunch of GOP asshats in a call yesterday that he expects unemployment to hit at least 20%.

Unless trump suddenly becomes a socialist, he's probably fucked. Then again, Americans are stupid, so hey..


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Abagadro on March 18, 2020, 03:26:57 AM
Apparently the R0 on this is worse the lower the humidity, so BYEEEEEEEEEEE from the desert.
I thought everybody in Utah keeps at least a year's worth of food and essentials stockpiled. Okay, maybe that's just the Mormons, but they should have plenty to share with the non-Mormons right? :awesome_for_real:


Ah yes, the ValPak storage food bought 15 years ago that is expired sitting on the metal shelves down in the basement.  My best/weirdest memory is a literal 55 gallon drum of just raw wheat or corn kernels (can't remember which) that my mom had back in the day. I mean, WTF were we going to do with 50 gallons of raw whatever that probably had all sorts of weevils and shit in there.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Cyrrex on March 18, 2020, 03:28:17 AM
Mnuchin apparently told a bunch of GOP asshats in a call yesterday that he expects unemployment to hit at least 20%.

Unless trump suddenly becomes a socialist, he's probably fucked. Then again, Americans are stupid, so hey..


I just assume at this point that he will use foreign interference, Covid-19 or any other excuse he can to either contest the results of the election and/or find a way to postpone it indefinitely.  Declare a further emergency, institute martial law, and then take his chances that the system will not be able to stop him.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Cyrrex on March 18, 2020, 04:43:15 AM
Simple tip seen on Facebook.  I only have a small bottle of hand sanitzer, and it seems at least for a while that one will need such a thing on hand for the next several months any time forced to interact with the public.  Of course, it is sold out everywhere I look.

But what isn't sold out?  Isopropyl alcohol and Aloe Vera.  I guess you just make a 2 to 1 mixture, and BAM, there's your sanitizer.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: lamaros on March 18, 2020, 04:58:34 AM
I still don't get the hand sanitiser thing. Is water that scarce you can't wash your hands? Sanitiser isn't as effective, and is gross.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 18, 2020, 06:17:27 AM
The WHO has an official recipe for hand sanitizer.
https://www.who.int/gpsc/5may/Guide_to_Local_Production.pdf

It’s basically isopropyl alcohol or ethanol, water, hydrogen peroxide and glycerol.

Good luck getting your hands on alcohol though over here isopropyl alcohol and ethanol are sold out.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Cyrrex on March 18, 2020, 06:32:15 AM
I still don't get the hand sanitiser thing. Is water that scarce you can't wash your hands? Sanitiser isn't as effective, and is gross.

I mostly agree, but I guess the theory is that you have it with you on the go.  Clean your hands with it before you do your business in public, clean your hands after.  You can't bring soap and water with you.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 18, 2020, 06:36:48 AM
One week of hand washing and my dry psoriasis skin is completely fucked. Dry and cracked open everywhere and it itches like hell.

Gone through balf a bottle of special neurodermitis/psoriasis skin care cream already.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on March 18, 2020, 07:51:11 AM
Since I'm still working with a half dozen people, it's for the times between hand-washing. Every time I touch anything that's not on my desk or under my direct control (my coat, etc), I've been religiously using hand sanitizer for 2 weeks now. The old lady was already a hand sanitizer nutjob, so we have a stash. But I'm much more of a hand washer, I've always been since my days in food service. Doing food prep, we always had a sanitary hand and a contaminated hand (I call it a chicken hand). My left hand to hold meat, right holds the knife, does the seasoning, opens ovens, etc. Left hand only touches the chicken. Once I move to another prep item, hands washed. Great discipline already built in. And working in warehouses conditioned me to keep the skin moisturized, boxes are hell on your hands, cardboard sucks all the moisture out.

So I guess I've been preparing for this with all the shitty jobs I've done in life!

Also, the irony is sinking in that the ONE person around here who would be happy as hell to board up the doors for a couple months and not come out is one of a handful that have to report to the building. The fiancee actually asked if she could still come in for half her shift. I did not punch her right in the face, but it took restraint :p


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on March 18, 2020, 08:50:49 AM
Regarding the length of this thing: It is the right decision, but we are intentionally prolonging it.  That is the plan.  We should understand what is going on.  The best available option, in the eyes of the professionals focused on beating this thing, is to extend the economic and social pain.  I don't disagree, but we need to understand that this is the plan.

Social distancing is being done to slow this thing down.  There are no illusions that everyone will hide away and this thing will die off.  It'll stay active somewhere and come back if we exit hiding.  The idea is to slow it down so that our healthcare resources can handle it ... which is still a hard thing as the major impact spikes occur in most countries when it gets into a retirement area and suddenly impacts more people in an area than they have resources to address it. 

Stopping this thing requires one of three things: 1,) Everyone to have had it, 2.) Everyone to have had it or be vaccinated, or 3.) Enough people to be in camps 1 and 2 that it can't find carriers and dies off.  If we were closer to 1 and 2, social distancing worldwide might get us to a solution, but just one asshole who thinks they know better can restart the cycle again if few people have this thing.  We need enough people to be immune that the assholes don't find carriers to spread it.



Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on March 18, 2020, 09:01:03 AM
It's not going to die off, any more than H1N1 died off. H1N1 is still around. It's going to become endemic to early 21st Century humanity. But basically that means the same thing: most people will have been infected by it, the vast majority asymptomatically, and any new cases past a certain point of herd immunity will be uncommon enough that they can be handled the same way we handle someone who comes in with pneumonia. The only goal right now is to space out the rate of growth. If everything in the US and elsewhere was business as usual, we'd probably end up with 2 million dead, most of them because there was no possible medical intervention--and of course lots of other people who did not have COVID-19 would die because there were no ICU beds or resources for them--auto accidents, industrial accidents, heart attacks, poisonings, you name it. And if the thought was "well, at least the economy would be normal", that too would be wrong. If we ended up with 2 million dead, most of them elderly, in a six month period, that would be its own source of panic and severe financial disruption. Imagine the real estate market everywhere where the elderly were the primary owners or renters and then imagine a sudden wave of sales by heirs.

There's no way out of this without damage to something. I fear the US with its present leadership is going to split the difference and not do enough to blunt the spread while doing enough to tank the economy.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on March 18, 2020, 09:57:03 AM
https://twitter.com/jeremycyoung/status/1239975682643357696

Quote
Jeremy C. Young
@jeremycyoung
Profile picture
16 hours ago, 21 tweets, 4 min read

We can now read the Imperial College report on COVID-19 that led to the extreme measures we've seen in the US this week. Read it; it's terrifying. I'll offer a summary in this thread; please correct me if I've gotten it wrong.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf)

The Imperial College team plugged infection and death rates from China/Korea/Italy into epidemic modeling software and ran a simulation: what happens if the US does absolutely nothing -- if we treat COVID-19 like the flu, go about our business, and let the virus take its course?

Here's what would happen: 80% of Americans would get the disease. 0.9% of them would die. Between 4 and 8 percent of all Americans over the age of 70 would die. 2.2 million Americans would die from the virus itself.

It gets worse. People with severe COVID-19 need to be put on ventilators. 50% of those on ventilators still die, but the other 50% live. But in an unmitigated epidemic, the need for ventilators would be 30 times the number available in the US. Nearly 100% of these patients die.

So the actual death toll from the virus would be closer to 4 million Americans -- in a span of 3 months. 8-15% of all Americans over 70 would die.

How many is 4 million people? It's more Americans than have died all at once from anything, ever. It's the population of Los Angeles. It's 4 times the number of Americans who died in the Civil War...on both sides combined. It's two-thirds as many people as died in the Holocaust.

Americans make up 4.4% of the world's population. If we extrapolate these numbers to the rest of the world (warning: MOE is high here), this gives us 90 million deaths globally from COVID-19, in 3-6 months. 15 Holocausts. 1.5 times as many people as died in all of World War II.

Now, of course countries won't stand by and do nothing. So the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, this time assuming a "mitigation" strategy: all symptomatic cases in the US in isolation. Families of those cases quarantined. All Americans over 70 social distancing.

This mitigation strategy is what you've seen a lot of people talking about when they say we should "flatten the curve": try to slow the spread of the disease to the people most likely to die from it, to avoid overwhelming hospitals.

And it does flatten the curve -- but not nearly enough. The death rate from the disease is cut in half, but it still kills 1.1 million Americans all by itself. The peak need for ventilators falls by two-thirds, but it still exceeds the number of ventilators in the US by 8 times.

That leaves the actual death toll in the US at right around 2 million deaths. The population of Houston. Two Civil Wars. One-third of the Holocaust. Globally, 45 million people die: 7.5 Holocausts, 3/4 of World War II. That's what happens if we rely on mitigation & common sense.

Finally, the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, assuming a "suppression" strategy: isolate symptomatic cases, quarantine their family members, social distancing for the whole population, all public gatherings/most workplaces shut down, schools and universities close.

Suppression works! The death rate in the US peaks 3 weeks from now at a few thousand deaths, then goes down. We hit but don't exceed the number of available ventilators. The nightmarish death tolls from the rest of the study disappear.

But here's the catch: if we EVER relax suppression before a vaccine is administered to the entire population, COVID-19 comes right back and kills millions of Americans in a few months, the same as before.

After the 1st suppression period ends in July, we could probably lift restrictions for a month, followed by 2 more months of suppression, in a repeating pattern without triggering an outbreak or overwhelming the ventilator supply. Staggering breaks by city could do a bit better.

But we simply cannot EVER allow the virus to spread throughout the entire population in the way other viruses do, because it is just too deadly. If lots of people we know end up getting COVID-19, it means millions of Americans are dying. It simply can't be allowed to happen.

How quickly will a vaccine be here? Last week three separate research teams announced they had developed vaccines. Yesterday, one of them (with FDA approval) injected its vaccine into a live person, without waiting for animal testing. That's an extreme measure, but necessary.

Now, though, they have to monitor the test subject for 14 months to make sure the vaccine is safe. This part can't be rushed: if you're going to inoculate all humans, you have to make absolutely sure the vaccine itself won't kill them. It probably won't, but you have to be sure.

Assuming the vaccine is safe and effective, it will still take several months to produce enough to inoculate the global population. For this reason, the Imperial College team estimated it will be about 18 months until the vaccine is available.

During those 18 months, things are going to be very difficult and very scary. Our economy and society will be disrupted in profound ways. And if suppression actually works, it will feel like we're doing all this for nothing, because infection and death rates will remain low.

It's easy to get people to come together in common sacrifice in the middle of a war. It's very hard to get them to do so in a pandemic that looks invisible precisely because suppression methods are working. But that's exactly what we're going to have to do. /end


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on March 18, 2020, 10:57:36 AM
So a train is on a track, 5 workers ahead and you can switch tracks to kill 1 worker on a side spur...

Given how prolonged and damaging this is going to be to the global economy, I can't help but think maybe it would be less damaging to the other 7 billion people on the planet to let the thing run it's course.

But a primary human trait (that has limited our progress greatly) is selfishness. I prefer isolation and curve-flattening because we both have senior parents we are concerned for and are personally not in too much jeopardy of real hardship, though the likelihood is there for years of really bad times around the world as decades of globalizations now bites us hard.

On the other hand, a second primary human trait is stupidity (statistically speaking), so the teeming hordes of {dumb shit deniers/kids/religious zealots/whatever rationalization for ignoring science} will likely mean millions will die anyway and we will still go through a long period of social, economic, and personal hardships.

On the third hand, how many will die due to the hardships? How can we recover from a 20% unemployment rate? It will destroy the already precarious house of cards built by the finance world and politicians where massive debt is the norm, what happens when credit is no longer any good and 20% of the population (in the US, let alone other economies) has no income and can't access credit (directly or via the government borrowing money to give them)?

Just putting it out there as a thought experiment, not actually advocating for the deaths of millions. But if we just said 'fuck it, everyone go back to work', we could avoid the impending global financial catastrophe that will affect 99.9% of the humans on the planets. So should billions suffer to save millions?


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: 01101010 on March 18, 2020, 11:10:58 AM
So a train is on a track, 5 workers ahead and you can switch tracks to kill 1 worker on a side spur...

Given how prolonged and damaging this is going to be to the global economy, I can't help but think maybe it would be less damaging to the other 7 billion people on the planet to let the thing run it's course.

But a primary human trait (that has limited our progress greatly) is selfishness. I prefer isolation and curve-flattening because we both have senior parents we are concerned for and are personally not in too much jeopardy of real hardship, though the likelihood is there for years of really bad times around the world as decades of globalizations now bites us hard.

On the other hand, a second primary human trait is stupidity (statistically speaking), so the teeming hordes of {dumb shit deniers/kids/religious zealots/whatever rationalization for ignoring science} will likely mean millions will die anyway and we will still go through a long period of social, economic, and personal hardships.

On the third hand, how many will die due to the hardships? How can we recover from a 20% unemployment rate? It will destroy the already precarious house of cards built by the finance world and politicians where massive debt is the norm, what happens when credit is no longer any good and 20% of the population (in the US, let alone other economies) has no income and can't access credit (directly or via the government borrowing money to give them)?

Just putting it out there as a thought experiment, not actually advocating for the deaths of millions. But if we just said 'fuck it, everyone go back to work', we could avoid the impending global financial catastrophe that will affect 99.9% of the humans on the planets. So should billions suffer to save millions?
 

The needs of the many...


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Cyrrex on March 18, 2020, 11:19:50 AM
You aren't alone in thinking these things.  In my less charitable moments, I think that maybe there is a higher power out there, or simply mother nature trying to correct a few things:

-The plague of the Boomers
-Climate change
-Ridiculous over population
-The continued raping of Earth's resources
-Wealth and power distribution

....and so on.  A ravaging on a global scale might be just what planet earth needs.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Hammond on March 18, 2020, 11:25:45 AM
So there was a earthquake in the Salt Lake City Utah area today....


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 18, 2020, 11:48:43 AM
You won’t prevent a economic meltdown with the let all of them die at once approach.

Millions will be sick at home, there will be mass panic in a country with more guns than people. Society will completely break down for weeks as no one will be able to do any essential work to keep everything going.

It’s the difference between levels of fuckedness. Neither of the solutions will make it so we’re fine


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 18, 2020, 11:50:29 AM
You all assume that people who are gravely ill or fear they might die just wander calmly and silently into the night to die with the least amount of bother possible and that everything will go back to normal after.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on March 18, 2020, 12:00:24 PM
The sick will recover before we have a vaccine. Millions out of work for a few weeks is different than millions (and possibly billions) out of work for a year and a half.

I never said we're fine. The one worker on the spur track is not fine, and his buddies who survive aren't either.

I don't think you're picturing the long view of shutting almost everything down. We can weather a brief interruption to global production. We cannot weather a prolonged one.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 18, 2020, 12:08:52 PM
Black Friday 1929 was a brief interruption to global production and the economy that shaped nearly two decades of world history and it took years to recover from it.

It was also not 4 million people dead and several more people gravely ill type of interruption.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Brolan on March 18, 2020, 12:25:05 PM
Deaths in Italy surge to 475 in one day making the total over 3000.  Whatever they are doing they are doing it wrong.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Lucas on March 18, 2020, 12:31:36 PM
Deaths in Italy surge to 475 in one day making the total over 3000.  Whatever they are doing they are doing it wrong.

No.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Cyrrex on March 18, 2020, 12:38:36 PM
Deaths in Italy surge to 475 in one day making the total over 3000.  Whatever they are doing they are doing it wrong.

You have to remember you are looking back in time.  It’s what was being done wrong a few weeks ago.  Like, I don’t know, everywhere else in the world that is not SK or China.  Italy is just in the front of the curve.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Lucas on March 18, 2020, 12:42:47 PM
Deaths in Italy surge to 475 in one day making the total over 3000.  Whatever they are doing they are doing it wrong.

You have to remember you are looking back in time.  It’s what was being done wrong a few weeks ago.  Like, I don’t know, everywhere else in the world that is not SK or China.  Italy is just in the front of the curve.

Exactly; it was largely anticipated that, at least for Italy, these would have been among the hardest 10-15 days, and it's proving to be so. There are spikes from day to day, both in deaths (unfortunately) like today, but also for recovered people, infact today was a "good" day on that front ( +1084, +37% compared to yesterday)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on March 18, 2020, 01:03:15 PM
Deaths.... free up beds.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Brolan on March 18, 2020, 01:07:39 PM
Not really as they are just wheeling the high-risk people to a room to die in.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on March 18, 2020, 01:09:08 PM
this is also true


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on March 18, 2020, 04:09:58 PM
They can just wheel in trolleys. Hell shopping trolleys will do, right?


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on March 18, 2020, 05:04:53 PM
Flabbergasted an we haven't been taking over Ikea warehouses if we're being honest.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on March 18, 2020, 05:34:49 PM
I'm gonna say that I have specific reasons why you shouldn't trust the Twitter guy linked above. Not a bot, nothing of the kind, but definitely a guy who likes to stir up shit via social media.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Lucas on March 18, 2020, 07:23:36 PM
The following image comes from Bergamo, in the Lombardy region here in Italy.  Bergamo and Brescia are cities that are paying the highest price right now; ICUs are completely full, as well as hospital beds. Hospital personnel is exhausted.


And there is no more space in the crematorium and mortuaries.

Army vehicles are waiting outside the cementery, to bring bodies to other regions so that they can burn them. The first group of coffins will arrive right here in my hometown of Modena.


(https://i.imgur.com/ZvzaEbR.jpg)


Stay at home.





Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Goumindong on March 18, 2020, 11:07:03 PM
Apparently the R0 on this is worse the lower the humidity, so BYEEEEEEEEEEE from the desert.

probably has more to do with co-variation between desert climates and Iran/Eqypt


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Abagadro on March 19, 2020, 12:27:38 AM
Apparently the R0 on this is worse the lower the humidity, so BYEEEEEEEEEEE from the desert.

probably has more to do with co-variation between desert climates and Iran/Eqypt

No, it has to do with how low-humidity helps to keep droplets from coughs/sneezes airborne/aerosol rather than precipitate out of the air. It's fairly well known for normal flu stuff.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Abagadro on March 19, 2020, 12:30:07 AM
So there was a earthquake in the Salt Lake City Utah area today....

Ya, been a blast on the Emergency Management side of things. It caused a chemical spill at the big mine of HCl that created a plume we needed to deal with as well.

It's wild. Like, I've been in FEMA training where they do these tabletop exercises and the devious fuckers keep piling on one thing after another (Hazmat train derailment, then a tornado, etc.) and this feels just like that but its all real.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 19, 2020, 05:22:12 AM
The city and county where my sister and parents live as has been put under quarantine and a curfew because it’s become a corona hotspot.

So I won’t  be able to see my family for the next few weeks or months. Maybe never again if my parents get infected.

Ground zero for the outbreak was a beer festival in a town about 20 miles away where all of the townsfolk went including police fire dept and doctors. This town is on lockdown since Tuesday.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on March 19, 2020, 01:08:26 PM
Simple tip seen on Facebook.  I only have a small bottle of hand sanitzer, and it seems at least for a while that one will need such a thing on hand for the next several months any time forced to interact with the public.  Of course, it is sold out everywhere I look.

But what isn't sold out?  Isopropyl alcohol and Aloe Vera.  I guess you just make a 2 to 1 mixture, and BAM, there's your sanitizer.

My wife just bought 3 aloe plants and 2 bottles of iso alcohol for just such a task. I tried to tell her she's probably tripped over into overreaction a bit but she's stubborn. Also, she may be right so yay?


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Ashamanchill on March 19, 2020, 01:12:39 PM
So my wife is a research scientist who runs an immunolgy lab. She is the smartest person I know, but in a couple ways she just lacks common sense. Not like and idiot or anything, just that there are some answers to basic things that Jane on the Street will get that she won't. I've been telling her for a week now her department is going to get shunted to COVID work. She would scoff and tell me that what a bad idea that was, that they didn't know the first thing about the virus (not from a layman's perspective, from and advanced research perspective), that they weren't set up for that, etc. And I would tell her, that doesn't fuckin' matter. You don't have to be Carnac the Magnificent to see that they were going to get forced into it.

And of course I was right.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Surlyboi on March 19, 2020, 03:27:25 PM
Simple tip seen on Facebook.  I only have a small bottle of hand sanitzer, and it seems at least for a while that one will need such a thing on hand for the next several months any time forced to interact with the public.  Of course, it is sold out everywhere I look.

But what isn't sold out?  Isopropyl alcohol and Aloe Vera.  I guess you just make a 2 to 1 mixture, and BAM, there's your sanitizer.

My wife just bought 3 aloe plants and 2 bottles of iso alcohol for just such a task. I tried to tell her she's probably tripped over into overreaction a bit but she's stubborn. Also, she may be right so yay?

We've had a huge aloe plant for years, (had to cut it down and give the cuttings to several friends and family members.) Got a case of everclear too. Let's rock.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Rasix on March 19, 2020, 03:37:53 PM
My son's friend's dad killed himself on Sunday. The guy had some mental health issues and apparently was convinced he had cancer for like the past year. I didn't know this about him, and the guy seemed nice enough and upbeat the few times I hung out with him last year. The whole corona virus situation I guess pushed him over the edge.

Sucks. He had two kids and a wife that works part time.

Anyhow, I suppose we'll see some people broken by this. Keep safe and healthy everyone.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Brolan on March 19, 2020, 03:45:02 PM
I’m expecting other bad shit like an increase in domestic violence and murders.  People stuck together too many hours in a day.  It’s a pressure cooker and stove is set to High.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on March 19, 2020, 03:54:11 PM
There will likely be a spike in divorces because of this. And also babies being made.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: lamaros on March 19, 2020, 04:17:44 PM
My son's friend's dad killed himself on Sunday. The guy had some mental health issues and apparently was convinced he had cancer for like the past year. I didn't know this about him, and the guy seemed nice enough and upbeat the few times I hung out with him last year. The whole corona virus situation I guess pushed him over the edge.

Sucks. He had two kids and a wife that works part time.

Anyhow, I suppose we'll see some people broken by this. Keep safe and healthy everyone.

If you have other medical issues and are in the hospital right now corona is already messing up your chances to survive. We have only six corona deaths here but I know personally two incidents where just the fear of it has affected treatment for individuals.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tale on March 19, 2020, 09:13:56 PM
If you have other medical issues and are in the hospital right now corona is already messing up your chances to survive. We have only six corona deaths here but I know personally two incidents where just the fear of it has affected treatment for individuals.

One of those deaths is the person my parents were exposed to, so shit is real around here. They tested negative and their quarantine ends next Tuesday. At this stage I'd prefer it didn't end.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on March 19, 2020, 09:34:02 PM
Well your reported cases are going up exponentially too so it probably won't be too long before people will be asked/ordered to self-isolate.

Feb 22: 22  reported cases
Feb 29: 25
Mar 07: 71
Mar 14: 295
Mar 19: 757

https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/novel_coronavirus_2019_ncov_weekly_epidemiology_reports_australia_2020.htm


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on March 19, 2020, 09:39:37 PM
have fun in italy, california


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on March 19, 2020, 09:48:05 PM
I live in what was the hardest hit county in California until Los Angeles* passed us recently :awesome_for_real: :oh_i_see: :ye_gods:

At least we don't have a butt-head governor like you do.

* but my county has a lower population so we're still way ahead per-capita

Edit: for those wondering what schild is talking about:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/california-issues-statewide-stay-home-order-coronavirus-fight-n1164471
https://covid19.ca.gov/img/N-33-20.pdf


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on March 19, 2020, 09:49:47 PM
I live in what was the hardest hit county in California until Los Angeles* passed us recently :awesome_for_real: :oh_i_see: :ye_gods:

At least we don't have a butt-head governor like you do.

* but my county has a lower population so we're still way ahead per-capita


our butthead governor legalized alcohol delivery


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on March 19, 2020, 09:51:17 PM
Sadly that's not a cure.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tale on March 19, 2020, 09:51:47 PM
Well your reported cases are going up exponentially too so it probably won't be too long before people will be asked/ordered to self-isolate.

Feb 22: 22  reported cases
Feb 29: 25
Mar 07: 71
Mar 14: 295
Mar 19: 757

https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/novel_coronavirus_2019_ncov_weekly_epidemiology_reports_australia_2020.htm

Agree with you entirely (and have been working from home for a week so far).


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on March 19, 2020, 10:06:18 PM
Sadly that's not a cure.

well, texas gov sucks obviously

but while it's not a cure, it DOES mean I get alcohol brought to my door


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: MahrinSkel on March 20, 2020, 12:08:28 AM
Florida is about to go all pear shaped on us:

https://healthweather.us/ (https://healthweather.us/)

tldr: "Flu Like Illness" is code for "we think COVID but we can't test for it because the proper hoops haven't been jumped through." 4.5M olds in Florida.

--Dave

Edit: Grey doesn't really mean 'normal', it means not enough data because nobody fucking lives there.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Chimpy on March 20, 2020, 12:17:05 AM
The comment about grey being no one living there is fucking hyperbole, Dave.

There are lots of places on that map with pretty high populations that are in grey areas, and places where there are hundreds of square miles per person that are not grey.

But yes, Florida is looking to end up more like Iran than Italy.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on March 20, 2020, 12:34:09 AM
Starting to wish my parents had come here for ... 18 months? Yeeeeee


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: 01101010 on March 20, 2020, 04:37:31 AM
Florida is about to go all pear shaped on us:

https://healthweather.us/ (https://healthweather.us/)

tldr: "Flu Like Illness" is code for "we think COVID but we can't test for it because the proper hoops haven't been jumped through." 4.5M olds in Florida.

--Dave

Edit: Grey doesn't really mean 'normal', it means not enough data because nobody fucking lives there.

ILI, or influenza like illness is what the CDC uses to track possible flu cases (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm#ILIMap target=CDC) and the season waves which they have been doing for at least a decade now. These can only be reported if the person's ARI (acute respiratory illness) symptoms get reported and logged into the medical record system. All it means is people are suffering from respiratory illness, not fever though that accompanies flu most of the time. It's a cool graphic and all, but coming from a company selling thermometers, I can understand why they emphasize the points that directly support their products.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Salamok on March 20, 2020, 05:13:25 PM
I have about a 2 week supply left but I am starting to regret not buying a jumbo pack of TP when I went out for ice cream last week and saw the beginning of the apocalyptic run on the grocery store. There is probably enough food in the house to last as long as the TP.  My wife did make an attempt to go to the store today and said it is still crazy, even less on the shelves than there was 4 days ago.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on March 20, 2020, 07:39:25 PM
I went to the local Kroger today and people have officially LOST THEIR GODDAMN MINDS. Toilet paper/paper products aisle completely obliterated. All antibacterial hand soap, gone (yet oddly these idiots left all the regular hand soap that isn't labeled antibacterial even though just REGULAR GODDAMN SOAP is just fine to wash off viruses and shit). People walking around in face masks, some of them coughing.

Look here, Sally Shitstain. If you are wearing a mask because you need it, i.e. YOU ARE COUGHING, you shouldn't be in the fucking grocery store around 1/4 of the population. If you do NOT have symptoms yet are wearing a face mask, the police should slap you around, go to your home and confiscate every goddamn one of those masks and give to the HOSPITALS THAT FUCKING NEED IT, YOU CUNT.

Thankfully, I think I'm not stocked up enough that I won't have to leave my house again until next Friday when I have to go back into work for my 1 day a week. By that time either we'll have restocked our shelves or the apocalypse will be well and truly upon us and I won't have to go to work anyway.

I got TP. I got booze. I got food. I got snacks. Let's hermit up in this motherfucker.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on March 20, 2020, 08:05:32 PM
I have about a 2 week supply left but I am starting to regret not buying a jumbo pack of TP when I went out for ice cream last week and saw the beginning of the apocalyptic run on the grocery store. There is probably enough food in the house to last as long as the TP.  My wife did make an attempt to go to the store today and said it is still crazy, even less on the shelves than there was 4 days ago.
The TP shortage will not last forever.  If you get desperate, use a washcloth and wash it. 

People only have so much shelf and fridge space - we're starting to see food last longer at Costco, Grocery Stores, etc... in my area.  There was TPon the shelves at Costco and the chain grcery stores for over half the day, today.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: MahrinSkel on March 20, 2020, 08:09:12 PM
By the time I have to shop again(about 3 more weeks), I expect things to have worked themselves out. There's no actual shortage of household products, just a passing demand surge. But once a month/bi-weekly shopping trips are going to become the norm for a bit.

--Dave


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Salamok on March 20, 2020, 08:29:40 PM
The TP shortage will not last forever.  If you get desperate, use a washcloth and wash it.  

People are selling TP on e-bay, if that company gave an actual fuck about anything they would ban it and let these fuckers enjoy their 10 year supply of TP.

edit - I took a quick look here is some absolute saint of a human being selling a package of TP for $40 (not to mention $30 shipping and handling) (https://www.ebay.com/itm/Angel-Soft-264-Sheets-Unscented-Toilet-Paper-12-Pieces-White/174225421263).


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Cadaverine on March 21, 2020, 07:45:13 AM
edit - I took a quick look here is some absolute saint of a human being selling a package of TP for $40 (not to mention $30 shipping and handling) (https://www.ebay.com/itm/Angel-Soft-264-Sheets-Unscented-Toilet-Paper-12-Pieces-White/174225421263).

There's a means to report listings for price gouging, but looks like this person was already reported for it on the 19th, and is still at it, so doesn't seem to do any good.  Not surprising, given how shitty Ebay/Paypal are.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Rendakor on March 21, 2020, 10:26:19 AM
One of my shitbag coworkers was bragging about selling Clorox wipes on Ebay for $80 a pack yesterday.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on March 21, 2020, 11:54:15 AM
Did you cough directly into his shitbag hellmouth? Because you should totally do that.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Brolan on March 21, 2020, 01:53:44 PM
Also, if he has anything nice you can steal just go ahead and take it.  After all he is stealing from others.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on March 21, 2020, 03:53:00 PM
The record of their sales will be there for a while.  eBay and Amazon will face pressure to go after them.  I'm curious if eBay and Amazon have the capability to disgorge your gouging profits.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on March 21, 2020, 04:08:55 PM
I think folks who are doing this kind of stuff don't really know what they're messing with. In this context, it's no longer cute or Reddit-worthy or whatever. In a genuinely dire situation, people who are profiteering have the sense to be discreet and to hire protective muscle. The people who are visible and public and stupid are honestly courting some form of public violence.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on March 21, 2020, 05:12:22 PM
As the US healthcare system gets more stressed, they are starting to talk about not bothering testing

WaPo (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/21/coronavirus-latest-news/#link-A2WGNPYUQNG63CJCMT6YLNFDQA)

Quote
A new message in hard-hit areas: Don’t get tested

Health officials in New York, California and other hard-hit parts of the country are restricting coronavirus testing to health-care workers and people who are hospitalized, saying the battle to contain the virus is lost and we are moving into a new phase of the pandemic response.

As cases spike sharply in those places, they are hunkering down for an onslaught, and directing scarce resources where they are needed most to save people’s lives. Instead of encouraging broad testing of the public, they’re focused on conserving masks, ventilators, intensive care beds — and on getting still-limited tests to health-care workers and the most vulnerable. The shift is further evidence that the rising levels of infection and illness have begun to overwhelm the health care system.

Health officials are struggling with a complicated message — more people can get tested, but those with mild symptoms should stay home and practice social distancing. Some go so far as to warn that widespread testing at this point could threaten the U.S. response by burning through precious supplies just as a tidal wave of sick people descend on the system — a message at odds with administration announcements that millions of test kits are finally becoming available.

“In a universe where masks and gowns are starting to become scarce, every time we test someone who doesn’t need one, we’re taking that mask and gown away from someone in the intensive care unit,” said Demetre Daskalakis, deputy commissioner for the Division of Disease Control of the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene.

Personally I'd start outside drive through testing stations and don't throw away a mask for every patient, but what do I know? Regardless, numbers from tests are going to become even more unreliable.

Also seeing reports that US hospitals are going to start going broke soon as they are spending out the ass for supplies.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Brolan on March 22, 2020, 12:27:35 AM
Here in Minnesota we had our first COVID-19 death.  Patient was in their 80s and had a number of health issues.  We have 137 known cases and 6-12 hospitalized depending on who you believe. 

Youngest patient is 10 so that blows a hole in theory kids don’t get sick from the virus.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on March 22, 2020, 12:43:05 AM
It's not that <20 can't get it. It's that 10-20 have very few hospitalizations and 0-9 barely get symptoms. Also, 0-9 are apparently terrible at transmitting it.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on March 22, 2020, 12:50:40 AM
Where did you see that they're terrible at transmitting it?  They are less likely to have coughing fits, if that is what you mean, but little kids with the virus put their mouths on everything. 


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on March 22, 2020, 08:19:47 AM
Any supermarket that isn't sticking a limit on what customers can buy re: toilet paper and a few other things is either indifferent to profiteering or maybe is even involved in it. It's pretty clear that it's flying off the shelves because goons are buying all of it for resale.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: NowhereMan on March 22, 2020, 10:42:06 AM
Not sure about the US but certainly in the UK the situation is much less down to hoarding or panic buying and actually a symptom of the 'just in time', maximally lean supply chain management system that makes modern supermarkets profitable. Supply is very closely calibrated to normal, seasonal, consumption patterns. A 10% increase because people are grabbing a few extra packs of pasta or suddenly getting an extra couple of tinned beans each trip quickly adds up to empty shelves. The psychological effect of seeing things getting sold out means other people buying crap they normally wouldn't because there isn't anything else and even though deliveries are still coming through, the shelves aren't staying stocked because modern food supply chains cannot easily or quickly adjust for sudden changes in consumption even if those changes aren't especially large.

There are certainly cases of people buying a lot more than they need but, in the UK at least, they aren't impacting things on a systemic level. They're assholes and easy to point blame at but  shelves are empty because of all the people following the sensible advice of stocking up a little bit extra on all your normal shopping trips with durable goods.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: calapine on March 22, 2020, 11:48:16 AM
Ap­ro­pos UK:

(https://i.imgur.com/sVtyqsd.png)

 :oh_i_see:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Cyrrex on March 22, 2020, 01:19:54 PM
UK and Australia both seem to be behind the curve, so to speak.  It is going to get nasty.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: NowhereMan on March 22, 2020, 01:24:34 PM
Spain looks like it's on a sharper curve than even the UK. It's both impressive and terrifying and leaves me really wondering what the fuck is going on there considering how laissez faire the UK response has been.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: eldaec on March 22, 2020, 01:33:18 PM
Not sure about the US but certainly in the UK the situation is much less down to hoarding or panic buying and actually a symptom of the 'just in time', maximally lean supply chain management system that makes modern supermarkets profitable. Supply is very closely calibrated to normal, seasonal, consumption patterns. A 10% increase because people are grabbing a few extra packs of pasta or suddenly getting an extra couple of tinned beans each trip quickly adds up to empty shelves. The psychological effect of seeing things getting sold out means other people buying crap they normally wouldn't because there isn't anything else and even though deliveries are still coming through, the shelves aren't staying stocked because modern food supply chains cannot easily or quickly adjust for sudden changes in consumption even if those changes aren't especially large.

There are certainly cases of people buying a lot more than they need but, in the UK at least, they aren't impacting things on a systemic level. They're assholes and easy to point blame at but  shelves are empty because of all the people following the sensible advice of stocking up a little bit extra on all your normal shopping trips with durable goods.

While all this is true, it is worth adding that supply chains couldn't cope with these sorts of change in demand in the past either. And would regularly leave shops without random things for no good reason.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: eldaec on March 22, 2020, 01:50:15 PM
Spain looks like it's on a sharper curve than even the UK. It's both impressive and terrifying and leaves me really wondering what the fuck is going on there considering how laissez faire the UK response has been.

I've been ignoring everything except deaths because differences in testing policy seem too big to make the case count useful. On that basis today was a good day in the UK, I was mentally braced for 100 dead following the Italy curve and we only got 47.

On deaths though, Spain has gone from 350 to 1700 in a week. Italy took roughly the same amount of time between those two totals. The UK is on 14 day delay from Italy, Spain is about 7 days behind Italy. But the death curve looks identical in every Western country that has lost enough people to make the data useful.

If you want to explore data and really fuck with your mental health. This site is pretty good.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Salamok on March 22, 2020, 03:38:33 PM
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Is it just me or should:  Recoveries != Discharges from hospital


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on March 22, 2020, 04:21:55 PM
the entire recovery metric is a big ol question mark, i guarantee tens of thousands have recovered without ever having even gone to a doctor


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Salamok on March 22, 2020, 04:26:46 PM
True but if they diagnose someone, then don't hear from them or have a death certificate on them in 45 days I would say most likely recovered...


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on March 22, 2020, 06:27:14 PM
I'm also betting a lot of "recovered" people have fibrosis that is going to shorten their lives dramatically.  Some of the early data out of China indicated that a lot of the people that thought they came through this fairly cleanly have significant fibrosis.

Most of the world is either being fuckwatts or are being cautious - both are old news.  I'm really watching for news on two countries: China and North Korea. 

I want to see what happens in China when they go back to work and this virus is floating around freely in the world (and likely still living in freezers, living in jackasses that snuck past sheltering, etc..)  I'm betting they have a fairly significant resurgence, despite precautions. 

I'm also curious as everything as to what is really going on in North Korea.  If that country goes into a horror story it could create entirely different types of chaos.  Unfortunately, we never know what is going on there until the spy planes catch sight of the mass graves.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Morat20 on March 22, 2020, 06:48:10 PM
Hey, remember how I just helped my kid move five states? Guess who furloughs starting tomorrow.

For bonus fun? He's still registered as an employee in Texas -- he never officially started his new position in his new state. And his address is still Texas, because he hasn't changed it.

I have no idea where he should apply for unemployment legally.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Abagadro on March 22, 2020, 06:57:14 PM
Furloughed employees often don't qualify as they are still officially "on the books" of the company, just not working/getting paid.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Morat20 on March 22, 2020, 07:49:37 PM
Furloughed employees often don't qualify as they are still officially "on the books" of the company, just not working/getting paid.
Furloughed workers qualify in Texas.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on March 22, 2020, 09:42:28 PM
Furloughed employees often don't qualify as they are still officially "on the books" of the company, just not working/getting paid.
Furloughed workers qualify in Texas.

Apply in Texas. Why the fuck not who cares. Apply in both places.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Morat20 on March 22, 2020, 10:15:33 PM
Apply in Texas. Why the fuck not who cares. Apply in both places.
The one damn thing Abbot (our moron fucking governor) has done right is waive a lot of the unemployment barriers. He's literally done nothing else about this crisis.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on March 22, 2020, 10:16:26 PM
Apply in Texas. Why the fuck not who cares. Apply in both places.
The one damn thing Abbot (our moron fucking governor) has done right is waive a lot of the unemployment barriers. He's literally done nothing else about this crisis.

First state to have drivethrough testing and we were expanding before any other state.

But yeah, it's still a fair statement. He's been utterly useless. The cities have been doing decently though.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Morat20 on March 22, 2020, 10:34:59 PM
First state to have drivethrough testing and we were expanding before any other state.

But yeah, it's still a fair statement. He's been utterly useless. The cities have been doing decently though.
It's been the cities leading on that.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tale on March 22, 2020, 10:38:33 PM
Intensive care doctors and nurses in Italy.

(https://i.imgur.com/QDbwiPV.jpg)

(https://i.imgur.com/Azs8rpr.jpg)

(https://i.imgur.com/pDnnLUy.jpg)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on March 22, 2020, 10:49:50 PM
What the fuck? Is that from wearing masks 24/7?


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tale on March 22, 2020, 10:58:09 PM
Yes. Full protective gear in intensive care in a non-stop crisis (triaging who lives or dies) where they can barely take a break.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on March 22, 2020, 10:58:42 PM
Holy crap.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tale on March 22, 2020, 11:00:18 PM
One more.

(https://i.imgur.com/UCYr0HR.jpg)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Johny Cee on March 22, 2020, 11:51:10 PM
Hey, remember how I just helped my kid move five states? Guess who furloughs starting tomorrow.

For bonus fun? He's still registered as an employee in Texas -- he never officially started his new position in his new state. And his address is still Texas, because he hasn't changed it.

I have no idea where he should apply for unemployment legally.


He needs to call the DoL line for claimants, explain the situation, and see.  It does vary state by state.

In many/most states, a reduction in hours or furlough would qualify you to collect unemployment under normal circumstances.  Most states are loosening requirements now anyway.  He needs to find out when the DoL claimants line opens for business and call first thing.

In New York, if you leave a job for a new job and then are let go/furloughed from the new position, you would be eligible for benefits as you were a qualifying employee in New York within the last year and lost employment/hours through no fault of your own.  Benefits would be calculated based on your salary at your prior position.


Or, you know, if you had a regular accountant who handled your affairs this would be a great time to ask them to see what the best approach would be...


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on March 23, 2020, 12:10:42 AM
What the fuck? Is that from wearing masks 24/7?
Yes, with an N95 mask or equivalent you need an air tight seal around your nose and mouth or as close as you can get for it to be effective. This is one of the reasons why, at least in the West, face masks aren't recommended unless you yourself are sick or you are a caregiver -- you can't get an air tight seal with those types of masks.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Lucas on March 23, 2020, 03:32:08 AM
 :Love_Letters: :Love_Letters:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 23, 2020, 06:07:16 AM
The pictures have been faked/altered per photoshop and there’s two versions going around. The original and the version with photoshopped sad eyes and additional wounds.

See https://twitter.com/arscronius/status/1242005457427980288?s=20 for comparisons


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on March 23, 2020, 07:49:20 AM
Photoshopping that seems unnecessary. The unaltered shot is bad enough.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tale on March 23, 2020, 08:05:02 AM
Yeah it's hard to use the word "faked" when this is how the originals look. Okay, so someone has used Photoshop to turn up the volume on a real thing.

(https://i.imgur.com/yrTO2uQ.png)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: 01101010 on March 23, 2020, 08:10:03 AM
Having worn a respirator in an industrial setting, I am familiar with that look...but not to that extent.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Hawkbit on March 23, 2020, 10:01:18 AM
There's 100 surreal things each day about this, but knowing our bus routes are reduced and still not seeing a single person on them as they pass by my house... that's surreal.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Brolan on March 23, 2020, 01:43:51 PM
A University of Minnesota doctor formed an ad hoc team of engineers and businesses to create a prototype of an emergency ventilator.  He thinks he can scale it up quickly.

https://cbsloc.al/2Ud4kPP


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: UnsGub on March 23, 2020, 02:03:28 PM
Down town Seattle is now starting to look like what it must be like before a hurricane arrives.

Seen three business that have their windows and doors boarded up with plywood.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Rasix on March 23, 2020, 02:05:30 PM
Well, someone already smashed in the backdoor of the local Mexican food restaurant, so it's not a bad idea if you're not going to be open anytime soon.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on March 23, 2020, 02:28:10 PM
Down town Seattle is now starting to look like what it must be like before a hurricane arrives.

Seen three business that have their windows and doors boarded up with plywood.

Austin businesses are boarded up.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Morat20 on March 23, 2020, 03:10:18 PM
Hey, remember how I just helped my kid move five states? Guess who furloughs starting tomorrow.

For bonus fun? He's still registered as an employee in Texas -- he never officially started his new position in his new state. And his address is still Texas, because he hasn't changed it.

I have no idea where he should apply for unemployment legally.


He needs to call the DoL line for claimants, explain the situation, and see.  It does vary state by state.

In many/most states, a reduction in hours or furlough would qualify you to collect unemployment under normal circumstances.  Most states are loosening requirements now anyway.  He needs to find out when the DoL claimants line opens for business and call first thing.

In New York, if you leave a job for a new job and then are let go/furloughed from the new position, you would be eligible for benefits as you were a qualifying employee in New York within the last year and lost employment/hours through no fault of your own.  Benefits would be calculated based on your salary at your prior position.


Or, you know, if you had a regular accountant who handled your affairs this would be a great time to ask them to see what the best approach would be...
Thanks! I was able to find the information that was Texas specific based on your post, and he does qualify for Texas.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on March 23, 2020, 03:18:35 PM
The looting has quietly begun here, rash of a lot of businesses getting hit. We have a lot of NYC transplants, thanks to the prison outside town (that used to be a mental hospital and is now closed, so...jobs, amirite). So it's a really great class of citizen. Mostly just opportunists taking advantage of closed businesses with low levels of security, but that's how it starts before the desperation. I was ground zero for the King riots in LA in the 90s, so I'd already been contemplating a pistol permit. With the delays due to the current situation (not even sure if I can get a class, though a couple local shops are trying to stay open through the governors shut down order,it's a mess), I'm considering long rifles, probably a shotgun or a NY legal rifle...if I can get ammo.

I don't see how it's not going to get bad when most of the minimum wage jobs just disappeared. I don't want to be in an American city (albeit one of the smallest) without some protection. Also, nice to live in a stone house :D

The old lady is terrified of guns, but I grew up with them around and used to shoot a lot. We talked about this briefly early on, and now she's sending me links about pistol permits, so I know she's now more terrified of human behavior in a couple weeks.

Anyone else been thinking along these lines?


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Brolan on March 23, 2020, 03:36:54 PM
Yup, all I have now is a Ruger 1022 .22 cal rifle in the house.  Probably going to buy a random 12 gauge shotgun and cut the barrel down to where it is still legal.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tale on March 23, 2020, 06:00:33 PM
Welp... Australia.

My parents are out of quarantine today, into this.

(https://i.imgur.com/MADaCHT.png)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: lamaros on March 23, 2020, 08:55:33 PM
Australia is still in a much better situation that pretty much everywhere else in the world.

https://www.health.gov.au/news/australian-health-protection-principal-committee-ahppc-coronavirus-covid-19-statement-on-22-march-2020

More testing per capita than most, lower positive rates than most. Moved earlier (relative to cases) than most.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: 01101010 on March 23, 2020, 09:09:57 PM
Can't confirm this is real or not, but a captivating read... in a horror-sense of the word at least:
https://imgur.com/gallery/fiZxBkt


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: MahrinSkel on March 23, 2020, 10:08:24 PM
Can't confirm this is real or not, but a captivating read... in a horror-sense of the word at least:
https://imgur.com/gallery/fiZxBkt
Saw the original FB post, it's at least actually from the person it says it is.

--Dave


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Abagadro on March 24, 2020, 02:00:51 AM
Well thanks for scaring the ever loving fuck out of me at 1 a.m.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Cyrrex on March 24, 2020, 02:43:25 AM
Makes me rethink this strange nasal drip I have had the last two days.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Comstar on March 24, 2020, 08:30:18 AM
Australia is still in a much better situation that pretty much everywhere else in the world.

No, we are not.

We are doubling every 3 days.

The test results are 10 days behind the actual infection rate. So whatever you have test results for, because we are only testing people with direct contact or have been overseas and are visibly sick, you won't see them and get results for 10 days after they are infected.

We are now 8 days from when Italy's medical system was over taken and could not cope.


3 days after our medical system reaches capacity, you need to double it in size. The estimates are our ICU beds will hit that point around the 1st week of April. That's 2 weeks from now. Our muppet government is allowing 10's of 1000's of people to stand in lines outide centrelink offices and had no idea it would happen and made no plans for it that 1 million people would be out of work in the course of a week.

They are STILL not shutting everything down because they think there is an economy to save!


There is going to be no economy.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 24, 2020, 09:16:36 AM
There’s going to be no people


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Chimpy on March 24, 2020, 09:27:09 AM
And the kangaroo will once again rule the continent!


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: MahrinSkel on March 24, 2020, 09:59:02 AM
And the kangaroo will once again rule the continent!
I, for one, welcome our new marsupial overlords.

--Dave


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Cyrrex on March 24, 2020, 10:15:50 AM
Australia being taken over by kangaroos would be one of the most pleasant things that country has gone through recently.

Oh, and Australia has one of the worst curves in the world, they are in deep shit.  One of the weakest responses I have heard of.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Brolan on March 24, 2020, 10:28:11 AM
That’s the one constant of this virus, it exploits any weaknesses.  In the host body or government/political systems.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Cyrrex on March 24, 2020, 10:43:56 AM
There seems to be a correlation between facist shitfuck governments and slow and uninformed response.  Or maybe it's just me.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: calapine on March 24, 2020, 10:56:54 AM
There seems to be a correlation between facist shitfuck governments and slow and uninformed response.  Or maybe it's just me.

According to some napkin math, there is a positive correlation between the two variables, r = .98, p = < .001.  :grin:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on March 24, 2020, 11:37:15 AM
If its on a napkin, it must be true!  :oh_i_see:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on March 24, 2020, 12:14:35 PM
And the kangaroo will once again rule the continent!
I, for one, welcome our new marsupial overlords.

--Dave
They've got the female human vote locked: THEY HAVE POCKETS

This crisis has revealed that the fiancee's mom is farther into dementia than we had thought. Fiancee has been having to explain the entire situation in full multiple times a day. Mom's one remaining friend has an asshole grandkid living with her, having company over and going out all night partying, so she can't have contact. Keeps asking if family or the cleaning lady can come over. They canceled her church services, she's now completely isolated and just watching the news cycle all day. And then the cycle of questions (because she's seeing it again and again on the news) for the fiancee. Poor girl is run ragged, she's also not coping well with remote work and feels shut out by the younger employees.

Still can't find any TP anywhere.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: calapine on March 24, 2020, 01:51:36 PM
Empty Vienna:
https://vimeo.com/400021239


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on March 24, 2020, 02:12:26 PM
Vienna is gorgeous without the people.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Lucas on March 24, 2020, 02:13:29 PM
Trend in Italy is more or less stable for the third straight day. Again slightly less +positive cases, but also more deaths compared to yesterday's count (but more people recovered too). Peak really seem in sight, but the situation is still spotty because southern Italy might get hit harder in the next 10 days or so.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 24, 2020, 06:21:03 PM
China is an autocratic shithole and yet dealt with the outbreak pretty well.

It’s just that our autocrat shitbags value “the economy” (TM) more than their own people.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on March 24, 2020, 07:02:20 PM
China is an actual dictatorship.

Dictatorships are good at putting the boot down on bootlickers.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Salamok on March 24, 2020, 07:49:47 PM
Maintaining quarantines is a Storm Troopers specialty.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on March 24, 2020, 08:00:08 PM
Day 7 of the San Francisco Bay Area "shelter in place" order. For some reason it feels longer than that to me. Here in the heart of Silicon Valley, which is the epicenter for the infection in the Bay Area (sorry about that rest of the Bay Area), reported cases are doubling every 5 days which looks pretty scary when plotted though not as scary as Australia's graph. Don't know if testing frequency has increased or not yet though Google is now offering free testing (https://www.projectbaseline.com/study/covid-19/) in the area for those that qualify. Of course Google, never missing an opportunity to collect and tie people's personal information together, is forcing people to create Google accounts if they don't already have one to be able to get tested*.

The two grocery store chains I visited today have (finally) instituted purchase limits since I was there end of last week. Whole Foods only has limits on certain high-demand staple items while Sprouts has a limit on everything which is odd and inconvenient. The shelves are slightly better stocked than they have been the last two or three weeks, however, so at least that's good. Whole Foods was also oddly missing its army of Amazon Prime grocery shoppers/deliverers for some reason. Even before all this started it felt like most of people shopping my Whole Foods were Prime shoppers so I'm not sure where they all went. Haven't yet been to Costco this week yet but last week when I was there they had toilet paper in limited quantities (including Charmin and not just the cheap flimsy stuff) so that's encouraging.

I've actually been out more since the lockdown started getting takeout food, trying to both preserve my stockpile of food at home (while I also slowly add to it each week) and also support my favorite restaurants that are still open. Some are even offering gift cards / discounted purchases to encourage people to order food from them which is nice.

* Yes Google is claiming in the FAQ that this data isn't going to be associated with your other Google data "without your explicit permission" but it's trivial for Google to force that permission to happen with their frequent ToS changes that nobody reads

Edit: removed redundancy


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Surlyboi on March 24, 2020, 08:09:38 PM
We went from buying at Whole Foods to ordering Amazon Fresh once they started limiting people in the stores to 50.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on March 24, 2020, 08:10:52 PM
Mine doesn't have that limit (yet) though they do have the one hour in the morning seniors-only (60+) thing now.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on March 24, 2020, 08:18:45 PM
Day 7 of the San Francisco Bay Area "shelter in place" order.

Today represents roughly day 14 of me choosing to shelter in place, and I gotta say

not much has changed


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on March 24, 2020, 08:38:43 PM
I miss sitting somewhere having coffee, but other than that not much for me either.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Surlyboi on March 24, 2020, 08:43:05 PM
I haven't had a good flat white in two weeks.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: lamaros on March 24, 2020, 09:10:54 PM
Australia is still in a much better situation that pretty much everywhere else in the world.

No, we are not.

We are doubling every 3 days.

The test results are 10 days behind the actual infection rate. So whatever you have test results for, because we are only testing people with direct contact or have been overseas and are visibly sick, you won't see them and get results for 10 days after they are infected.

We are now 8 days from when Italy's medical system was over taken and could not cope.


3 days after our medical system reaches capacity, you need to double it in size. The estimates are our ICU beds will hit that point around the 1st week of April. That's 2 weeks from now. Our muppet government is allowing 10's of 1000's of people to stand in lines outide centrelink offices and had no idea it would happen and made no plans for it that 1 million people would be out of work in the course of a week.

They are STILL not shutting everything down because they think there is an economy to save!

There is going to be no economy.

Scott Morrison is an incompetent leader who cannot deliver a clear consistent message to save his life. That's bad.

Australia's economy is going to get fucked. That's bad.

People will die. That's really bad.

We're still way better off that many many other places. That's still bad, because everywhere is fucked.

We are doing more testing per capita here than most places. We've shut down things on a more aggressive schedule that most places, even if not by much. Relatively better can be true, even if it's still bad.

Graphs can look good or bad based on a bunch of recording factors. The US was testing like 17 people per million, Australia was doing about 500. The US can look great if they decide to not test anyone and treat anyone and hundreds die in their own homes. Simplistic looking at graphs and saying "nah nah it's super worse here" is not the way to consider what is going on.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tale on March 24, 2020, 11:25:31 PM
Scott Morrison is an incompetent leader who cannot deliver a clear consistent message to save his life. That's bad.

Australia's economy is going to get fucked. That's bad.

Last night in a televised press conference, Prime Minister Morrison said "Stay at home." Meaning don't go out under any circumstances if you can help it.

This morning his government sent a public health information text message, supposedly to all Australians, saying "Stay at home if you're sick." (contradicting his advice)

It only reached customers on the Telstra network. It came through as being from Telstra itself and began "Coronavirus Aus Gov msg:" like someone's shorthand version, then continued in full sentences.

This is despite the fact his party spent the last election spamming everyone with unsolicited texts where the sender was accurate.

Most things are closed but they're keeping open hairdressers and (for fuck's sake) food courts in shopping malls, restricted to takeaway only. So entire shopping malls full of closed shops are keeping their aircon running for douchebags who want to eat from the food court. Schools also remain open by order of the government, terrifying teachers and parents.

Oh and there's a new co-ordination commission set up to try and minimise the effects of the crisis. It will be headed by.... a former mining boss, aligned with the conservative government. Fuck.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on March 25, 2020, 01:49:14 PM
Main problem with working from home is that most people I work with don't have a ton of stuff they can do from home. So everyone is going stupidly bonkers coming up with ideas in Discord. I was sent an email today saying I need to sign up (I was waiting to be told, I know what a shitshow it's going to be in there). Everyone with a pet project is abusing this opportunity and the worst idealists (who hate me for bringing them down with things like priorities, appropriateness, or even basic sense) are running wild.

Worse, the boss has decided she doesn't want to do calls or email anymore (see above, she's running herself ragged trying to be a superhero), so now important announcements are buried in Discord chat. Without an official email update. For things like 'we're extending our work-at-home policy for 2 more weeks to mid-April'  :oh_i_see: I found out because the fiancee had to get into the Discord thing early (ordered to).

Meanwhile, I've been going in and getting a few computers at a time and getting a ton of shit off my backlog. I've been constantly denied when I request setting up a VPN so I can work remotely (for 20 years straight), so they can kinda go fuck themselves now. I've got more work lined up than I can finish, even with the extra 2 weeks I officially have not been informed about  :oh_i_see: But I'm being given all these 'online' tasks that everyone has to do, because nobody else has enough actual work, so it's getting in the way of me doing actual work (I probably could've finished the majority of my backlog just having 3ish weeks of uninterrupted workbench time!).

Jfc these people are bad at this and everyone rushing to pretend they're good at it. I'm in an almost perfect place (would be better if I could vpn to my servers), but my morale is in the shitter because I'm not being left alone to work. Blah.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Lucas on March 25, 2020, 02:19:51 PM
One more decent day in Italy (I always use adjectives with the utmost respect for those families who lost a dear one of course), experts are saying that the curve is definitely stabilizing, but it's going to be a slow process.

Curve today is at +7,54% (compared to 13,9%,  8,2 and 8,1 of the last three days). Good day for recovered people too, with +1034 (a decent increase compared to yesterday's 834), but unfortunately 683 deaths (less than yesterday's 743).


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Brolan on March 25, 2020, 02:42:47 PM
Here in Minnesota the governor has issued a two week shelter in place order starting Friday.  287 cases so far with 122 recovered. 26 hospitalized.  Still only one death.

On the brighter side the ending of flu season has brought ICU availability from 5% to 15%.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Mandella on March 25, 2020, 02:52:22 PM
Figured I'd check in with you guys after a pretty stressful week. As some of you know, I run a public facing business, so a lot to worry about.

We've gone from business as usual with a lot more sanitizing and removed condiments and table knickknacks to spreading out seating to only to-go orders to finally just shutting down last night. Mind you, we could still be open for delivery or take out (restaurants are considered necessary) but it just seemed prudent. Good news is that employees are covered to some degree by unemployment compensation for time lost to the virus, and good for them that they have to do nothing, their employer applies for them. Of course the government website where that information needs to be entered was overloaded and effectively down for 48 hours, but they finally got entered.

So now we wait. Hope the internet stays up.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on March 25, 2020, 03:05:06 PM
Here in Minnesota the governor has issued a two week shelter in place order starting Friday.  287 cases so far with 122 recovered. 26 hospitalized.  Still only one death.

Mississippi is close to your curve now - 377 cases out of 1943 tested with only 2 deaths. Unfortunately, our governor is following the federal lead of "we have to get the economy working again soon" and hasn't put in any sort of shelter-in-place orders, just a general avoid people, work from home if you can type of feeling. Individual cities have done more depending on the city with some having actual curfews. Schools are closed statewide through like April 17. I fear we're going to be one of the cases that opens back up too soon and gets a serious snapback second wave.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Brolan on March 25, 2020, 03:26:48 PM
In listening to the briefings what they are doing here is incredibly nuanced.  They are running disease projection models along side with economic models and trying to keep people as safe as they can while minimizing economic damage as much as they can.

Quite a juggling act with lives quite literally on the line.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Hammond on March 25, 2020, 04:35:10 PM
So Washington has moved to "Stay home stay safe" model. Which as near as I can tell is a slightly more serious stay home you idiots. They are closing down more retail stores but honestly most of them were already closed.

The company I work for is considered essential so we are not shutting down. And honestly the Agriculture market is pretty hot right now with sales being up. With the recent decision by foreign governments to stop shipping some agricultural products internationally it might kick-start a ugly price inflation on food.

Our office is slowly pushing the people home that they can. Some people for the life of me resist working from home and we cannot get them to stay home since it is "optional" for some people right now... Its a generational thing and I find it really frustrating.

Its interesting to hear people react to the Governor Cuomo and Governor Inslee, Personally I feel like they are doing a fair job of balancing peoples lives and businesses and communicating what is going on and the decisions they are making. However there is lots of anger towards the Governor's from the people that lost jobs or are living paycheck to paycheck. Its a rough go and I feel really bad for the people affected and the medicine for this is a pretty rough pill to swallow and impacts them disproportionately.



Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Surlyboi on March 25, 2020, 04:47:06 PM
New York has slowed the spread somewhat. We've gone from it doubling every 2.5 days to every 4.5 days. It's still getting worse, but maybe we can make it more manageable. 


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on March 25, 2020, 05:06:44 PM
I feel very encouraged that the epidemiological specialists are in fact thinking in sophisticated ways alongside the economists etc.--I honestly was too pessimistic about that. The experts at the heart of this actually seem to recognize the holistic character of the problem.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: 01101010 on March 25, 2020, 05:27:39 PM
I fear that there is going to be some crazy backlash when this is all said and done and DOESN'T kill millions here in the Murica. Whole lot of voting mouth breathers are going to look at the shattered economy and low death rate and conclude they could have avoided the depression/recession if we all would've worked thru it. These are also the same fucks that don't give 2 shits about someone else dying as long as it ain't them and their families.

I can't quite get passed the irony that there was just a short time ago there was all this talk about how the boomers were fucking the country and along comes the plague that targets them in particular. Funny that...


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 25, 2020, 05:39:04 PM
US is rapidly approaching a doubling of infections every two days and will have passed China in total reported infections by the end of this week So the chances of this are getting lower by the hour


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: SurfD on March 25, 2020, 05:39:54 PM
Kind of curious to know how this is turning out in India.  I was half expecting the place to turn into "Zombie Apocalypse Land" if it got a hold over there, but news has been almost completely silent regarding the country.  Then again, it's India, so I wouldn't put it past being possible that people over there are dropping like flies, but because they are all dying in home instead of crushing their hospital system that it doesn't appear nearly as bad as it actually is.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Lucas on March 25, 2020, 05:41:11 PM
Kind of curious to know how this is turning out in India.  I was half expecting the place to turn into "Zombie Apocalypse Land" if it got a hold over there, but news has been almost completely silent regarding the country.  Then again, it's India, so I wouldn't put it past being possible that people over there are dropping like flies, but because they are all dying in home instead of crushing their hospital system that it doesn't appear nearly as bad as it actually is.

I have the same opinion about India, but let's hope for the best  :oh_i_see:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 25, 2020, 05:44:46 PM
Kind of curious to know how this is turning out in India.  I was half expecting the place to turn into "Zombie Apocalypse Land" if it got a hold over there, but news has been almost completely silent regarding the country.  Then again, it's India, so I wouldn't put it past being possible that people over there are dropping like flies, but because they are all dying in home instead of crushing their hospital system that it doesn't appear nearly as bad as it actually is.

They just implement a two week (?) shelter in place lockdown for the entire country.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on March 25, 2020, 06:55:01 PM
I feel as if there will be an untold history of this in states that are controlling or suppressing information about what's been happening.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on March 25, 2020, 07:15:16 PM
what's untold

assume the worst and then put some jesus on it

and yeah, the US numbers are bogus because we aren't testing enough

the china numbers are bogus because they're fucking liars with no regard for life at all


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tale on March 25, 2020, 07:23:07 PM
Wish we all lived in New Zealand. (https://twitter.com/Ash_Stewart_/status/1242767605976510464)

They are a western democracy entirely locked down. They used a tsunami/volcano/earthquake warning system they already had in place. The entire nation was told: "where you are tonight, you are to remain".

Meanwhile the only thing the Australian PM has tweeted in the last 24 hours is the reversal of a 30-minute limit on hairdressing appointments.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Surlyboi on March 25, 2020, 08:15:46 PM
Spanish Nursing Home Residents Found Living in Squalor Near Bodies of Suspected Coronavirus Victims (https://time.com/5809271/spanish-nursing-home-coronavirus-bodies/)

Quote
Defense Minister Margarita Robles said the elderly residents were “completely left to fend for themselves, or even dead, in their beds.” She said the discovery over the weekend included several nursing homes but did not name them or say how many bodies were found.
  :ye_gods:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on March 25, 2020, 08:52:33 PM
This may or not be news,  but apparantly Iceland has been testing a lot of people there and half of the people who test positive has no symptoms at all.

https://english.alarabiya.net/en/features/2020/03/25/Coronavirus-Iceland-s-mass-testing-finds-half-of-carriers-show-no-symptoms



Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on March 25, 2020, 09:12:39 PM
Spanish Nursing Home Residents Found Living in Squalor Near Bodies of Suspected Coronavirus Victims (https://time.com/5809271/spanish-nursing-home-coronavirus-bodies/)

Quote
Defense Minister Margarita Robles said the elderly residents were “completely left to fend for themselves, or even dead, in their beds.” She said the discovery over the weekend included several nursing homes but did not name them or say how many bodies were found.
  :ye_gods:

Happens predictably in every bad hurricane in the US as well. It's not that surprising in terms of what people who work in nursing homes are paid or how they're treated.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Chimpy on March 25, 2020, 09:34:10 PM
This may or not be news,  but apparantly Iceland has been testing a lot of people there and half of the people who test positive has no symptoms at all.

https://english.alarabiya.net/en/features/2020/03/25/Coronavirus-Iceland-s-mass-testing-finds-half-of-carriers-show-no-symptoms



Testing positive, having symptoms, and being contagious are not all the same thing.

It is possible you have Herpes, but have never had symptoms.

There is still no concrete evidence that this virus is transmissible before symptoms (even the most mild) appear.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tale on March 25, 2020, 09:58:00 PM
Hospital workers at New York's Mount Sinai West hospital apparently lack personal protection equipment and had to wear trash bags instead. A 48-year-old assistant nursing manager there has just died of the virus (https://nypost.com/2020/03/25/worker-at-nyc-hospital-where-nurses-wear-trash-bags-as-protection-dies-from-coronavirus/).

(https://i.imgur.com/C648KVj.jpg)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on March 25, 2020, 11:22:18 PM
Quote
Angry Staffer
@AngrierWHStaff
·
1h
Cuomo called this “almost too good to be true”

If this trend continues, it will unequivocally prove the shelter in place method successful.

That’s still a shit ton of hospitalizations, but the more spread out they are, the better chance people have to live. That’s the goal.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUASim0XYAIzLT7?format=jpg&name=small)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUASim0XYAIzLT7?format=jpg&name=small (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUASim0XYAIzLT7?format=jpg&name=small)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: MahrinSkel on March 25, 2020, 11:53:40 PM
It's not rocket surgery. If you cut down on close physical interactions by several orders of magnitude, infections drop.

--Dave


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on March 26, 2020, 12:05:02 AM
Yeah here's a visualization of how "stay the fuck at home" affects the spread:

(https://i.imgur.com/gDud5Lt.gif)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Salamok on March 26, 2020, 12:08:49 AM
I'm constantly wondering what the new normal is going to look like.  So far the plan seems to be eventually in the months or more likely years ahead we will develop a vaccine until then we just slow down the spread so it happens at a rate the hospitals can handle.  So what does that mean?  Restaurants and public facing businesses shut down until the disease is eliminated in your local area?  No more international travel?  interstate travel?  in state travel?  Until either A) a significant percentage of the population has already contracted it  or B) we have a vaccine...  Just seems crazy and surreal even thinking these things but the writing is kind of on the wall.  Maybe we will see the TSA doing virus screening.

There is still no concrete evidence that this virus is transmissible before symptoms (even the most mild) appear.

Is there any evidence to the contrary?  I bring that up because if there isn't then this is just a bullshit pointless statement.  Most of the planned screening i've seen involves temperature readings, if the scary facebook story posted earlier is true maybe runny nose guy just has to wipe his nose and starts touching things before having an abnormal temperature reading.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200316143313.htm
Quote
Date: March 16, 2020

Source: The University of Texas at Austin

Summary: Infectious disease researchers studying the novel coronavirus were able to identify how quickly the virus can spread, a factor that may help public health officials in their efforts at containment. They found that time between cases in a chain of transmission is less than a week and that more than 10 percent of patients are infected by somebody who has the virus but does not yet have symptoms.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: eldaec on March 26, 2020, 02:12:39 AM
The spread seems completely remarkable if it isn't spreading before symptoms.

As for the new normal, yeah, unless it turns out we all already have it and will either get symptoms or immunity soon, I don't see how return to normal happens.

Regardless of official advice when is it sensible for an uninfected family to ever visit a restaurant? Do workplaces have to maintain 2 m separation forever? The economic fallout if this just sort of tails off rather than has a specific answer seems awful.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tebonas on March 26, 2020, 02:38:49 AM
The only good thing from this catastrophe is that there isn't everybody right up in your face anymore. Might be my Aspergers talking, but I got to tell somebody yesterday he should take the next elevator instead of cramming himself into the one I was taking. Man, that felt good.

I really and selfishly hope that is the death of those hugging and appendage grabbing rituals for good.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Cyrrex on March 26, 2020, 03:03:07 AM
Well, some hugging and appendage grabbing might still be okay.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tebonas on March 26, 2020, 03:09:32 AM
Sure, with the SO, and for fun. But that should be it.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Cyrrex on March 26, 2020, 03:46:26 AM

https://twitter.com/MichaelRapaport/status/1242931495460671489 (https://twitter.com/MichaelRapaport/status/1242931495460671489)

Maybe it should go in the politics thread, but I just kinda think everyone might like this one.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tale on March 26, 2020, 08:12:50 AM
Turns out chloroquine does fuck all (https://mobile.twitter.com/kennwhite/status/1243152451139784711).

Researcher who claimed it helped has about as reliable a record as the autism=vaccines guy. A correctly conducted Chinese study that showed chloroquine did nothing was ignored because this flawed western one said it worked.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Lucas on March 26, 2020, 08:25:34 AM
Kind of curious to know how this is turning out in India.  I was half expecting the place to turn into "Zombie Apocalypse Land" if it got a hold over there, but news has been almost completely silent regarding the country.  Then again, it's India, so I wouldn't put it past being possible that people over there are dropping like flies, but because they are all dying in home instead of crushing their hospital system that it doesn't appear nearly as bad as it actually is.

They just implement a two week (?) shelter in place lockdown for the entire country.

Looks like police is beating down whoever put his nose outside (from al jazeera english twitter feed):

https://twitter.com/AJEnglish/status/1243160778720468993

Oh, and push-ups!


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on March 26, 2020, 09:52:10 AM
I definitely feel like there are countries that are hiding the scale of their own outbreaks, and that's bad, because it's obscuring knowledge about the disease that the world desperately needs to have.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Cyrrex on March 26, 2020, 09:56:38 AM
Hiding and/or simply unable to manage it in a way that gives any good information.

And my old shop teacher would have made them do those push-ups over, shameful.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Salamok on March 26, 2020, 11:09:43 AM
Turns out chloroquine does fuck all (https://mobile.twitter.com/kennwhite/status/1243152451139784711).

Researcher who claimed it helped has about as reliable a record as the autism=vaccines guy. A correctly conducted Chinese study that showed chloroquine did nothing was ignored because this flawed western one said it worked.

To be fair though the Chinese study only involved like 30 people or something.  I pretty much felt it was going to be bullshit from the get go anyway,Trump endorsing something is pretty much means there are only wishes instead of facts supporting it. 


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Lucas on March 26, 2020, 11:46:25 AM
So, yesterday  my fiancee started to feel a bit of a a sore throat, dry cough (not continous) and a bit of a cold (but not really a runny nose). No flu.

Today it's been 14 days since we returned from our trip abroad (like I said, we went through 3 airports, at that time without any security measures, meaning we distanced from others ourselves 'til on the plane, of course).

Honestly, it would be a bit surprising if we both caught it (we live together, currently I have no symptoms whatsoever): we went out only once to buy groceries, exactly 10 days ago. Both periods (14 days and 10) are theorically still within the possible incubation/beginning of symptoms window, but quite beyond the average (5 days). We walk out the dog three times a day (no people outside since we're in lockdown, so you can keep your distance whenever you go out) and we're careful not to touch our face or anything 'til we're back inside and with our hands washed. Yeah, of course there are cases of getting it beyond the usual 14 days window.

A bit skeptic also for another reason: last week weather was splendid, sunny at about 22-23°C (73 F); last three days: windy, cloudy, cold (about 4-5 °C, so a big drop) and TODAY IT FUCKING SNOWED for 3-4 hours in the morning :mob:

Anyway, this drastic weather change surely hasn't helped. Will keep you posted  :pedobear:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Lucas on March 26, 2020, 01:39:39 PM
Here in Italy, Lombardy unfortunately continues to be the big anomaly: national curve went a bit up again today, +8,3% (yesterday it was 7,4); but looking at the values of all the italian regions, Lombardy added a whopping 1,000 more cases compared to yesterday. If not for that, curve would actually be at a slight new low. Lockdown measures are definitely working in most of the other 19 regions...but really struggling in Lombardy  :oh_i_see: . Damn it.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on March 26, 2020, 01:53:02 PM
Turns out chloroquine does fuck all (https://mobile.twitter.com/kennwhite/status/1243152451139784711).

Researcher who claimed it helped has about as reliable a record as the autism=vaccines guy. A correctly conducted Chinese study that showed chloroquine did nothing was ignored because this flawed western one said it worked.

But hey who cares about those lupus, malaria, and Chloroquine poisoning patients, huh? And we can be sure that people will be saying this is the Governments covering up the cure till the end of time. Gotta stockpile just in case!

Also, Doctor said I'm fine for now, just have a cold or something.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on March 26, 2020, 02:41:44 PM
My company just announced that everyone gets an extra week of paid time off to deal with Covid-19 if we need it.  That's pretty nice of them considering everything that's going on.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on March 26, 2020, 02:51:57 PM
wow one week

how benevolent


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on March 26, 2020, 03:00:47 PM
wow one week

how benevolent


Well, we already get 5 weeks paid time off, and no one is getting laid off. 


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tale on March 26, 2020, 05:19:32 PM
Turns out chloroquine does fuck all (https://mobile.twitter.com/kennwhite/status/1243152451139784711).

Researcher who claimed it helped has about as reliable a record as the autism=vaccines guy. A correctly conducted Chinese study that showed chloroquine did nothing was ignored because this flawed western one said it worked.

To be fair though the Chinese study only involved like 30 people or something.  I pretty much felt it was going to be bullshit from the get go anyway,Trump endorsing something is pretty much means there are only wishes instead of facts supporting it.  

It seems unlikely what what works on Plasmodium parasites spread by mosquitoes would work on the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The whole chloroquine possibility is based on MERS trials in 2012 where they threw just about every drug against MERS, and chhloroquine made the "might stop the virus from infecting cells" shortlist, but ultimately didn't show enough activity to be considered further (http://theconversation.com/could-chloroquine-treat-coronavirus-5-questions-answered-about-a-promising-problematic-and-unproven-use-for-an-antimalarial-drug-134511).


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on March 26, 2020, 05:32:53 PM
Remember that malaria is an insanely complicated life cycle and it's super-adapted to people. It's impressive that something so untargeted ever hurt it in the first place, but it has to do with chlorquine's general toxicity. You know what the main treatment (still!) for later-stage trypanosomomasis (sleeping sickness) is? Flooding the body with arsenic. Sometimes kills late-stage patients but if you don't they're dead anyway. It's also in a way what we're doing with chemotherapy and radiotherapy. So drugs that are toxins work sometimes simply because they disrupt the metabolic functioning of a pathogen as well as its host enough to give the host time to recover from the pathogen. But they're not targeted and they often do more harm than good. Some of the later chloroquin derivatives used to fight malaria after it developed resistance had really bad side effects beyond garden-variety toxicity.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: lamaros on March 26, 2020, 06:03:33 PM
I definitely feel like there are countries that are hiding the scale of their own outbreaks, and that's bad, because it's obscuring knowledge about the disease that the world desperately needs to have.

We all owe a lot to Italy in a way. Without what's happened there, and them making it so public and open (hello Iran, China) a lot of the rest of our countries would have been even slower to take this seriously than they are.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Chimpy on March 26, 2020, 07:33:43 PM
Italy also scared the pants off a lot of doctors/nurses etc in the West who were initially thinking this might be blown out of proportion. Doctors and nurses are well aware just how advanced Italy's healthcare system is and the fact that it has been crushed under the weight of this thing has really woken them up.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Lucas on March 27, 2020, 04:51:39 AM
More weird from India (from CNN live updates. I mean, you do whatever you think it's necessary, but that's quite weird nonetheless :D ) :

(https://i.imgur.com/vM6MOkU.png)

Change Rajastthan with Arstotzka and you're basically in full "Papers, Please" mode :D

Or, if you prefer, "for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Rajasthan"  :grin:




Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Lucas on March 27, 2020, 06:22:54 AM
Breaking news:

(https://i.imgur.com/94AGxxs.png)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: eldaec on March 27, 2020, 09:11:12 AM
You just know he'll be fine.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Cyrrex on March 27, 2020, 09:18:26 AM
Without any way to actually back up this claim, I would go out on a limb and suggest this virus skews heavily towards infecting total cunts.  If for no other reason than they are more likely to ignore the rules and recommendations.  We'll see a few giant assholes die from this before all's said and done.

Which in no way is me saying that everyone that catches it falls into this category.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Chimpy on March 27, 2020, 09:51:08 AM
Without any way to actually back up this claim, I would go out on a limb and suggest this virus skews heavily towards infecting total cunts.  If for no other reason than they are more likely to ignore the rules and recommendations.  We'll see a few giant assholes die from this before all's said and done.

Which in no way is me saying that everyone that catches it falls into this category.

So far, the number of celebrities/public figures who have died of this has skewed towards the "better than average" people being more likely to die.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on March 27, 2020, 09:51:48 AM
The statistics on this are not very good at telling the story of what's going on.  For example, It would be really helpful to know how many people who died had a pre-existing condition, were terminally ill, and what the age distribution is. A country with a more developled healthcare system will have more elderly people that are susceptible to Covid-19 than countries with a lower life expectancy. 


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: MahrinSkel on March 27, 2020, 10:02:29 AM
The statistics on this are not very good at telling the story of what's going on.  For example, It would be really helpful to know how many people who died had a pre-existing condition, were terminally ill, and what the age distribution is. A country with a more developled healthcare system will have more elderly people that are susceptible to Covid-19 than countries with a lower life expectancy. 
Yeah, you could wish there was an entire medical specialty dedicated to gathering, collating, and publishing that data....

Do some googling, I already did my homework, you can do your own.

--Dave


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on March 27, 2020, 10:09:27 AM
The statistics on this are not very good at telling the story of what's going on.  For example, It would be really helpful to know how many people who died had a pre-existing condition, were terminally ill, and what the age distribution is. A country with a more developled healthcare system will have more elderly people that are susceptible to Covid-19 than countries with a lower life expectancy.  
Yeah, you could wish there was an entire medical specialty dedicated to gathering, collating, and publishing that data....

Do some googling, I already did my homework, you can do your own.

--Dave

I'd love to but we are just slammed with work at the office.  My team and I will be working this weekend.

Edit: It is cool that something is out there!


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on March 27, 2020, 10:13:39 AM
Yeah, you could wish there was an entire medical specialty dedicated to gathering, collating, and publishing that data....

Do some googling, I already did my homework, you can do your own.

--Dave
I've been able to find some data that tells age based information, and some that tells about preexiting conditions, but nothing that cross references those, as well as factors in other important considerations.  For example how many people my age with my health conditions have been tested, how many of those were posititive, how man of those developed no symptoms/symptoms that did not require hospitalization/symptoms that required hospitalization but were never critical/critical cases that survived/deaths - and for each of those, where they were located.

The question everyone wants to know is: Given my circumstances, and the circumstances surrounding my friends and family, what are people facing if they get the virus?


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: NowhereMan on March 27, 2020, 11:42:56 AM
It's useful information from the view of individuals who want some level of individualised actuarial information i.e. how much is this going to fuck me versus someone in my age cohort without whatever conditions I have, but from a general perspective it's absolutely not necessary to cross reference deaths with pre-existing conditions, etc. because we're comparing mortality rates with known diseases like influenza and that shows pretty clearly that it's killing a fuckload more people. Yes we might not know what the survival rates of a super healthy 70 year old are versus a 40 year old with 1 lung, type II diabetes and gonorrhoea but we can definitely see that both of them are more likely to be killed by this than the flu and the 70 year old is a lot more likely to die.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: MahrinSkel on March 27, 2020, 12:03:33 PM
It takes time (and a lot of cases) to get enough numbers crunched to get mortality for all the permutations of age, gender, and comorbidities.

--Dave


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on March 27, 2020, 12:34:59 PM
I think one thing you can see in the data is that if you're over 20, you're not invulnerable--there is a small but notable group of people 25-49 who get really severe cases of it who have no pre-existing conditions or vulnerabilities.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Lucas on March 27, 2020, 01:45:08 PM
Just to reinforce the idea on how a local  health system can fail under such an extreme stress, today has been the worst day in Italy when it comes to daily deaths: 919

Of those, 541 in the Lombardy region alone (which has a total pop. of 10 million out of 60 mil.)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Gimfain on March 27, 2020, 02:02:19 PM
Stockholm (capital) is having an escalation of covid-19 cases in iva and as a result more deaths. With people getting their pay checks on wednesday you had restaurants and pubs filled to the brim with people in the wealthier parts. With easter about to happen those same people would go to the swedish ski resorts and you would get the same crisis as the bergamo/lombardy region in italy.

Its due to things like that why Sweden just made it illegal for public gatherings of more than 50 people. My work place is doomed but honestly given that the owner is the same kind of person that don't give a shit about the human cost to get profits its probably for the best. The shithead pushed 700 people into the night club when the limit was 500 two weeks ago.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Cyrrex on March 27, 2020, 02:18:18 PM
Jesus Fucking Christ, Sweden is waaaaaaaaaaaay behind.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on March 27, 2020, 04:52:03 PM
They are literally just announcing a full scale lockdown here in Ireland. No-one to go more than 2km from their home. Stay inside.

Time to wear pyjamas all day


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Lucas on March 27, 2020, 05:28:05 PM
Stockholm (capital) is having an escalation of covid-19 cases in iva and as a result more deaths. With people getting their pay checks on wednesday you had restaurants and pubs filled to the brim with people in the wealthier parts. With easter about to happen those same people would go to the swedish ski resorts and you would get the same crisis as the bergamo/lombardy region in italy.

Its due to things like that why Sweden just made it illegal for public gatherings of more than 50 people. My work place is doomed but honestly given that the owner is the same kind of person that don't give a shit about the human cost to get profits its probably for the best. The shithead pushed 700 people into the night club when the limit was 500 two weeks ago.

I mean, that "hands off" could (could) make sense in the Norrbotten province ( I was there for a week at the beginning of March, nearby Jokkmokk), given how low the population density is; but Stockholm is just like any average city in the western world right now.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 27, 2020, 05:46:27 PM
Sweden and the Netherlands are pretty fucked because they both went with the. “We don’t really need a lockdown” strategy even after the experience we had with Italy and Spain


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Gimfain on March 27, 2020, 10:13:40 PM
Everyone is pretty fucked regardless. What you need are longterm strategies that you can maintain during a year because this one isn't going away easily and if its gone in spring it will be back in fall. Denmark closed their borders but you also have swedes that work in denmark that can move freely over the border. If its shut down completely you have vital parts that don't work because necessary people can't be in the country.The new situation will be when people move out of the large cities and go to their summer houses which will spread it to other regions of the country. The next problem is during fall when everyone is back to work, and everything spreads again.

There are huge cultural differences between swedes and italians when it comes to social distancing. Had lunch with an italian the other day and she immediately hugged me, italians spends far more time with their family elders so if young people have it they will transmit it to the old. Native swedes are nothing like italians so its not going to spread like wildfire among the elderly up here.



Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 28, 2020, 04:58:48 AM
Regardless of any stereotypical “cultural norms” the rate of infections is currently tracking really badly for both Sweden and The Netherlands

They’re both on a worse trajectory than for example Austria even though Sweden has a population density that is about 1/4th that of Austria. Also the Netherlands should have put a shelter in place order long ago  given that they have a higher population density than India.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: eldaec on March 28, 2020, 06:09:33 AM
No one outside Asia looks to be on a materially different curve to me.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on March 28, 2020, 07:39:46 AM
I'd really like every country, including South Korea, to stop talking about a rate of infection. This thing has 2-14 days of being asymptomatic. No country is "getting ahead" of it until there's an instant goddamn test and they systemically go through every single person one by one and those people STAY in their houses until every person is healthy again.

This is a thing we live with now and absolutely every country on the planet is *fucked.*


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tale on March 28, 2020, 08:52:25 AM
FYI this popular tally is incorrectly showing a high number of deaths in Australia. The number of new cases today in each Australian state has somehow been entered as the number of deaths (e.g. New South Wales, Australia, is showing as 212 deaths when it actually has 7 deaths total, but 212 new COVID-19 cases today. There are only 14 deaths total in Australia so far.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: MrHat on March 28, 2020, 12:12:51 PM

 No country is "getting ahead" of it until there's an instant goddamn test and they systemically go through every single person one by one and those people STAY in their houses until every person is healthy again.


https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1243696001958981632?s=20

Quote
Scott Gottlieb, MD
@ScottGottliebMD
·
16h
This is GAME CHANGER. Abbott to market, starting next week, a fast point-of-care #coronavirus test, delivering positive results in 5min and negative results in 13min. Will deliver 50K tests/day to start. Kudos to Abbott and FDA’s Jeff Shuren and team at CDRH who are in the fight.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Brolan on March 28, 2020, 12:52:44 PM
Here in Minnesota we now have 5 dead and 441 known infected.  30 cases in the hospital. 

The first 4 dead were all in their 80s, 3 of those from nursing homes.  The latest death is not documented yet.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on March 28, 2020, 01:05:09 PM
that tweet

 No country is "getting ahead" of it until there's an instant goddamn test and they systemically go through every single person one by one and those people STAY in their houses until every person is healthy again.

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1243696001958981632?s=20

Quote
Scott Gottlieb, MD
@ScottGottliebMD
·
16h
This is GAME CHANGER. Abbott to market, starting next week, a fast point-of-care #coronavirus test, delivering positive results in 5min and negative results in 13min. Will deliver 50K tests/day to start. Kudos to Abbott and FDA’s Jeff Shuren and team at CDRH who are in the fight.

step 0 is having a test that gives answers fast enough to isolate

steps 1 through 300 rely on the administration and red state governments not being mega retarded

step 0 is actually the easy one here


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 28, 2020, 01:15:33 PM

 No country is "getting ahead" of it until there's an instant goddamn test and they systemically go through every single person one by one and those people STAY in their houses until every person is healthy again.


https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1243696001958981632?s=20

Quote
Scott Gottlieb, MD
@ScottGottliebMD
·
16h
This is GAME CHANGER. Abbott to market, starting next week, a fast point-of-care #coronavirus test, delivering positive results in 5min and negative results in 13min. Will deliver 50K tests/day to start. Kudos to Abbott and FDA’s Jeff Shuren and team at CDRH who are in the fight.

If they work like any other virus quick test they’re pretty much useless. Flu quick tests have a horrible detection percentage of less than 30 percent in some cases.

That’s why everyone is doing PCR testing right now.

If it works it would be awesome but this sounds to good to be true. Like Theranos


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 28, 2020, 01:34:08 PM
I’m always very “encouraged” when I google shit like this and all I get is PR bullshit or “this could revolutionize X” fluff pieces and “Held in high regard by clinical professionals for their accuracy” copy.

Molecular quick tests seem to be rather reliable though at least on par with current COVID tests so about 90% accuracy. It also seems that the tests are about three to five times more expensive, the machines are also very expensive to buy and operate, the test is very susceptible to mishandling and operator error and it’s also always running on a vendor proprietary platform. Like Abbott’s IDNow platform of which this mobile testing unit is just one element.

Sounds very expensive/lucrative. And also something most labs/hospitals or patients won’t be able to even afford.

Also FDA didn’t license this test. It’s pretty much only legal because of an emergency order by the FDA.

„ The ID NOW COVID-19 EUA has not been FDA cleared or approved. It has been authorized by the FDA under an emergency use authorization for use by authorized laboratories and patient care settings. The test has been authorized only for the detection of nucleic acid from SARS-CoV-2, not for any other viruses or pathogens, and is only authorized for the duration of the declaration that circumstances exist justifying the authorization of emergency use of in vitro diagnostic tests for detection and/or diagnosis of COVID-19 under Section 564(b)(1) of the Act, 21 U.S.C. § 360bbb-3(b)(1), unless the authorization is terminated or revoked sooner.“


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 28, 2020, 01:35:23 PM
The cynic in me sees this as yet another way of profiteering from a global crisis with help from the Trump administration. I hope I’m wrong though


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on March 28, 2020, 03:19:39 PM
The way I see this: The longterm strategy is flatten the curve, isolate the most vulnerable until they can trust a vaccine, and put the people back to work when the total impact of shutting down the economy (not just the economic cost, but the lives lost due to isolation, lost health care, medical treatments uavailable due to an overly taxed health system, etc...) outwieghs the risks to those that have not had it yet in the eyes of decision makers. 


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Surlyboi on March 28, 2020, 03:37:45 PM
That assumes that the decision makers are rational and motivated by something other than greed, power or racial resentment.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Goumindong on March 28, 2020, 03:52:25 PM
How does it produce a positive result in 5 minutes and negative in 13?


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: 01101010 on March 28, 2020, 04:18:48 PM
I assume you would see some kind of growth starting at 5 minutes up to 13 minutes. After 13 minutes I would guess if nothing happens, then it would be neg.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Bunk on March 28, 2020, 10:06:11 PM
Hey all, long time. Figured I'd drop in and make sure everyone here is doing okay.

I'm fortunate to have moved out to the boonies (Vancouver Island) at the start of the year, and we're pretty isolated from it here. Still have cases in our town, but the total cases on the Island is under 100.

I'd started working at Home Depot, figuring it would be something to keep me busy while hunting for a "real" job. All of a sudden went from a part time gig, to being given all the hours I am willing to work, plus hazard bonuses, because apparently gardening and home repair is an essential service, and since half of the staff at Home Depot is over 60, most of them are staying home.

And no - we do not have any disinfectant wipes or toilet paper in stock.

Stay safe, and don't go stir crazy. Take it from someone who was pretty much a self imposed hermit for some time - its survivable. Though thank god for things like Tabletopia and Discord.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on March 28, 2020, 10:08:35 PM
Though thank god for things like Tabletopia and Discord.


you're never logged into the discord server you punk


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Bunk on March 28, 2020, 10:10:24 PM
I'll be around. Schedule is starting to settle.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Gimfain on March 28, 2020, 11:27:11 PM
since the swedish curve means we are fucked the link below shows the curve of how many people in sweden that have been put into intensive care each day due to the corona outbreak. It didn't look like I would have expected.
Link (https://portal.icuregswe.org/siri/report/vtfstart-corona)

In sweden we have a state epidemiologist in the government agency for public health that speaks every day about the crisis, our elected officials mostly focus on putting new rules in place. I suppose its different from everyone else that have their elected officials that know absolutely nothing on the subject to speak about what to do.



Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Soln on March 29, 2020, 12:23:39 AM
Where on the Island are you Bunk? We’ve been eyeing the place as a bolt hole.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on March 29, 2020, 08:59:00 AM
Hey all, long time. Figured I'd drop in and make sure everyone here is doing okay.

I'm fortunate to have moved out to the boonies (Vancouver Island) at the start of the year, and we're pretty isolated from it here. Still have cases in our town, but the total cases on the Island is under 100.
Total positive case was under 100.  Given what they've discovered about how many people show little or no symptoms (sometimes, ever - sometimes, for the first few weeks og being contagious).  Most of the medical guidance tells people with minor symptoms not to get tested - to just assume you have it.  Unfortunately, most people are assholes and are going out with minor coughs, etc...  And then when you factor in all the people showing no symptoms... 

The numbers I try to find and look at are: How many tests were given in an area, and how many of those were positive.  If the percentage of positive tests/total tests given rise on a day to day basis, it is expansively loose in the community and should not be considered contained.  If there are a decent number of tests given and a decrease or flat rate of positive cases, the situation is not showing signs of getting worse - although the precentage of positive cases obviously matter - you're only in good shape if the number of positive tests per day stays low.   Unfortunately, the number of tests given in an area is becoming increasingly hard data to find.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Bunk on March 29, 2020, 04:45:20 PM
Where on the Island are you Bunk? We’ve been eyeing the place as a bolt hole.

Comox Valley area, which is just over an hour north of Nanaimo. So about half way up the island.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Bunk on March 29, 2020, 04:47:53 PM
I've been estimating how bad it is here from first hand firehall info. There's only been a handful of cases requiring ambulance response in the area so far.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Lucas on March 29, 2020, 04:50:20 PM
Encouraging data here in Italy: curve percentage today was at +5,64% (more or less the same number of swabs of the last few days), definitely a downward trend in the last 5-6 days (from 13%, to 8, 7, again 8, then 6 and today 5). Yesterday it was a record day for recovered people (+1434 I think), still too many deaths, albeit less. Trend is definitely going down in Lombardy too.

It's not only a metric given by general stats, but evidence coming from E.R. (less calls, less ambulances going out) and also ICU patients are growing at a much slower rate (while a portion of those go back to a regular hospital section).

Just to give you an idea of the longevity we're talking about, in my hometown  7 people lost their life today, unfortunately: a 103 years old woman (yep, you read that right; btw, a 102 yrs old woman made the news a couple days ago because she recovered), a 77 years old woman, then five men: 97 years old, 96, 95, 82, 60 (dunno if this one had any pre-existing conditions)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Salamok on March 29, 2020, 06:47:58 PM
I want the test the UK company is working on that is cheap, can be done at home and tells you if you've already had corona.  If you test positive for that stay home for a few symptom free weeks then operate under the assumption you wont get the same strain again and unquarantine yourself.  

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/25/uk-coronavirus-mass-home-testing-to-be-made-available-within-days


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Surlyboi on March 29, 2020, 07:33:44 PM
Where on the Island are you Bunk? We’ve been eyeing the place as a bolt hole.

Comox Valley area, which is just over an hour north of Nanaimo. So about half way up the island.

Soln, I'd suggest not running out into the sticks if you can avoid it unless you've got a significant enough stockpile to really shelter in place for about three months. When the peaks hit the hinterlands, there will be absolutely nowhere to go and the other city folk running out there for "safety" will overflow an already razor-thin safety net.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on March 29, 2020, 09:08:19 PM
From another forum

Quote
The situation in France with Raoult Didier and his Chloroquine experiments has gotten weirder and weirder.

He is now essentially saying that of course his first early paper was flawed, but that the emergency circumstances don't leave time to do rigorous science.

He then came out with a new set of data using 80 patients in which his treatment resulted in 80% of the cases resolving without severe symptoms.

...which, if you've been paying attention, is the rate at which untreated cases resolve without severe symptoms.

This branch of the news just keeps getting weirder.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Bunk on March 29, 2020, 09:59:58 PM
Where on the Island are you Bunk? We’ve been eyeing the place as a bolt hole.

Comox Valley area, which is just over an hour north of Nanaimo. So about half way up the island.

Soln, I'd suggest not running out into the sticks if you can avoid it unless you've got a significant enough stockpile to really shelter in place for about three months. When the peaks hit the hinterlands, there will be absolutely nowhere to go and the other city folk running out there for "safety" will overflow an already razor-thin safety net.

Yeah, that's kind of my advantage here - my parents are semi-hoarders. We've got enough food here to last 6 months.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on March 30, 2020, 04:51:28 AM
Irish report.

https://beat102103.com/covid-19/simon-harris-to-meet-officials-to-bring-new-measures-to-tackle-covid-19-in-nursing-homes/
Quote
Simon Harris to meet officials to bring new measures to tackle Covid-19 in nursing homes

30 March 2020

The Health Minister will meet top officials today to arrange for new measures to tackle Covid-19 in nursing homes.

There are now 17 clusters of the coronavirus in nursing homes across the state.

Simon Harris says he is very worried about the prevalence of the illness among older people.

“I am concerned to see a significant amount of infection now breaking out in a number of nursing homes,” said Mr Harris.

“We’ll be meeting with the nursing home sector and also, and very importantly, the Chief Medical Officer is having a number of meetings in advance of the National Public Health Emergency Team meeting on Tuesday.

“And I expect you’re going to see a number of measures aimed at minding and protecting those who are in our nursing homes and also other long term residential facilities.

“And also our staff how work there.”

Yesterday it was announced that 10 more people in Ireland had died after contracting Covid-19.

It brings he death toll since the beginning of the outbreak to 46.

There have also been 200 new confirmed cases of the virus in the country – bringing the total to 2,615.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Lucas on March 30, 2020, 04:48:58 PM
A "good" day in Italy, with a few caveats:

- highest count of recovered people in a single day: 1590
- still a high count of deaths: 812

The daily curve of new cases for today was at a new low: +4,1% BUT.... a significant lower amount (nationwide) of swabs results came in compared to the previous 3-4 days, so experts are eagerly awaiting for the next 2-3 days to confirm the downward trend.

What is truly a relevant and notable piece of data (if/when authorities start giving it out), especially when you need to start confirming that a downward trend might be ongoing (so, unfortunately, that is not the case for the U.S., for now) ,
is daily ambulance interventions for Covid-19 related issues.

For example, in Bergamo, which has been the most dramatic epicenter for the last few weeks, interventions in the last couple days were halved compared to the "peak" of a week and half ago.

In my hometown of Modena, there was a peak on the 20th March with 74 daily ambulance calls; yesterday there were "only" 36.

Btw, yes, there still might be "lucky" and "unlucky" days with spikes; now, I don't have graphs available, but authorities confirmed that those daily interventions are less and less frequent as days go by, lately.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on March 30, 2020, 05:09:41 PM
When I was wondering when our 'military trucks lined up for corpse removal' moment would come? Imminent in NYC. Earlier today they were interviewing a dude at a morgue in the city that is now overflowing into a refrigerated trailer parked in the back. I guess it's a more efficient setup? Ready to cart away and bring in the next one(s).


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Bunk on March 30, 2020, 06:21:09 PM
We're well prepared here in Canada. We have plenty of skating and curling rinks.

I apologize if gallows humor offends, but I find it kind of necessary.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on March 30, 2020, 07:26:55 PM
For a local perspective for those in the US.

State by State Projections of how unprepared your state is... (http://www.healthdata.org/data-visualization/covid-19-us-state-state-projections?fbclid=IwAR1-Tw6f_V2V4X1N6-CT0JSW_wupThDYHU_UxWLBfYO1D2SPQWtAeuG-FNM)

Relatively speaking, if these projections are close to correct, South Carolina does not look too bad relative to other states.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tale on March 30, 2020, 08:18:32 PM
New laws in my Australian state (https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/six-months-in-jail-11-000-fine-for-leaving-home-without-a-reasonable-excuse-20200330-p54fg8.html) (New South Wales): Six months in jail and $11,000 fine for leaving your home without a reasonable excuse.

My employer has been deemed an essential service. Apparently we're getting new white passes that say essential worker in case we need to go to the office, but most of us are already working from home anyway.

Quote
The NSW Public Health (COVID-19 Restrictions on Gathering and Movement Order 2020) makes it unlawful to leave your place of residence except "to obtain food or other goods and services", work and education that cannot be done from home, exercise, medical or caring reasons, and a limited number of other reasons.

It also bans gatherings of more than two people in public places, unless those people are members of the same household, or the gatherings are "essential for work or education". Unlike the order in Victoria, the NSW order does not appear to explicitly ban gatherings in people's residences.

Under the Public Health Act, individuals can be fined up to $11,000 or sent to prison for six months - or both - for breaching these ministerial directives. They can also be fined another $5500 for each day the offence continues.

Corporations that fail to comply are liable for a $55,000 initial fine and $27,500 for each day the offence continues.

A total of 16 "excuses" for leaving the home are contained in Schedule 1 of the order, including to attend weddings and funerals, which are limited to five and 10 people respectively. Other "excuses" include moving house, donating blood, undertaking legal obligations and accessing public services such as Centrelink and domestic violence services.

Furthermore, contact between parents and children or siblings who do not live together will also be regarded as a reasonable excuse. Priests and other ministers will still be allowed to go to their place of worship or provide pastoral care.

The order specifically states: "Taking a holiday in a regional area is not a reasonable excuse." It was signed by NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard late on Monday night.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: pxib on March 31, 2020, 02:05:27 AM
Excellent illustrative back-of-a-napkin calculations and animations from math youtuber 3blue1Brown. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs)

Gives easy-to-visualize examples of what different prevention measures would look like, and what results they might have.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on March 31, 2020, 07:23:36 AM
My early morning shopping finally paid off, I got a 4-pack of store brand TP  :oh_i_see: Literally the first time in three+ weeks I've seen any on the shelf.

I've been bitching at the fiancee to use her AARP powah, she's 55 and can get into the early bird hour (6-7am) to get the hard to find items. Instead, she complains it's too early and then further complains about the store being understocked and overcrowded later in the day  :uhrr:

Also...people are stupid and really do for the most part deserve horrible things:

(https://i.imgur.com/PrJJ23a.png)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Lucas on March 31, 2020, 08:22:31 AM
My early morning shopping finally paid off, I got a 4-pack of store brand TP  :oh_i_see: Literally the first time in three+ weeks I've seen any on the shelf.

I've been bitching at the fiancee to use her AARP powah, she's 55 and can get into the early bird hour (6-7am) to get the hard to find items. Instead, she complains it's too early and then further complains about the store being understocked and overcrowded later in the day  :uhrr:

Also...people are stupid and really do for the most part deserve horrible things:

(https://i.imgur.com/PrJJ23a.png)

Where is the army and/or the police with batons bashing the hell out of those people ?


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Phildo on March 31, 2020, 08:38:08 AM
Trying not to catch a disease from them.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: 01101010 on March 31, 2020, 09:16:29 AM
Maybe they just want to be the first passengers.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Chimpy on March 31, 2020, 09:39:22 AM
Where is the army and/or the police with batons bashing the hell out of those people ?

Too busy looking for people with less pasty white skin tones to hassle. I wish I was joking.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Surlyboi on March 31, 2020, 07:48:10 PM
My early morning shopping finally paid off, I got a 4-pack of store brand TP  :oh_i_see: Literally the first time in three+ weeks I've seen any on the shelf.

I've been bitching at the fiancee to use her AARP powah, she's 55 and can get into the early bird hour (6-7am) to get the hard to find items. Instead, she complains it's too early and then further complains about the store being understocked and overcrowded later in the day  :uhrr:

Also...people are stupid and really do for the most part deserve horrible things:

(https://i.imgur.com/PrJJ23a.png)

Man, there's always one black guy in there to fuck up the curve for the rest of us.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on March 31, 2020, 09:09:46 PM
Man, there's always one black guy in there to fuck up the curve for the rest of us.

(https://media.giphy.com/media/iQ7I02tiQi90I/giphy.gif)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on March 31, 2020, 10:25:13 PM
Excellent illustrative back-of-a-napkin calculations and animations from math youtuber 3blue1Brown. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs)

Gives easy-to-visualize examples of what different prevention measures would look like, and what results they might have.
That was interesting, thanks for that.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Salamok on April 01, 2020, 03:26:19 PM
Did Corona kill the yearly April fools thread? 

Maybe I can get it kickstarted with a crossover post:

https://www.surrogate.tv/game/toiletpaperclaw


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: RhyssaFireheart on April 01, 2020, 04:32:22 PM
Work has officially extended the work from home period to May 4th.

I'm not sure I'll survive being home for that long. 

And I'm mostly upset that my office plants will be dead by the time we're let back into the office because I completely forgot about them when considering what I needed to bring home for the extended WFH period. 


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: 01101010 on April 01, 2020, 04:37:44 PM
So working from home is nice enough. I got out of the shower and went to the bedroom to put my clothes on, grabbed my sweatpants and looked over at the wife and said, "Putting on the uniform." Haven't heard her laugh like that in awhile.

I'm also getting to know all her co-workers thru just overhearing all her meetings. Dunno if I can take having two groups of office people in my house all the time.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Rasix on April 01, 2020, 04:40:49 PM
2 work from home parents with meetings. Kid with online class meetings. I've taken a few scrum meetings in the spare bedroom.

This house needs some damn sound proofing. It's a fucking cacophony of keyboard clicks and random voices.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Salamok on April 01, 2020, 04:51:29 PM
I think with the wife and daughter now working from home as well I feel a little less ridiculous about buying an over sized house, then again if things get real bad my oversized mortgage isn't going to be very forgiving.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Samwise on April 01, 2020, 04:59:42 PM
Work has officially extended the work from home period to May 4th.

We're going till June.  I won't be surprised if it gets extended further.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Ruvaldt on April 01, 2020, 05:21:14 PM
I have a 4 year-old and teach webinars/design self-paced training professionally so anything involving audio has been tricky.  Instead of working in my house I've moved everything to my backyard shed and I work from there.  Even dragged a 100 ft. ethernet cable out here.  Using my webcam to show everyone my "luxurious studio" has turned into a nice icebreaker.

The weather is awesome right now and the only problem has been a plague of crane flies, but they mostly leave me alone.  I can't keep it up into late May/June though...it's going to be hot down here.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Hammond on April 01, 2020, 05:43:01 PM
Looking like we are going to extending our WFH until at least May as well.

Personally having half day in office and half day out is pretty darn nice. Only real issue is I setup my office in the basement which has a weird echo effect when I have people on speakerphone.



Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on April 01, 2020, 05:46:38 PM
They removed even the skeleton crew from my office. I'm IT so still working from home but I no longer have to go into the office. There isn't even a date set for when it might end. I don't expect to go back until at least mid-May or later.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on April 01, 2020, 06:07:52 PM
I think the call back in places that have had their early wave will be June 1. Unfortunately what's going to fuck that up is redstate bullshit, much as predicted. Florida in two weeks is going to be worse than NY; Missouri's urban areas too. And so the danger is going to be that places where folks have been sheltering--and thus NOT gaining herd immunity--is that insane fuckheads from places where folks refused to shelter are going to reignite everywhere before we really get over the top in terms of medical capacity and therapies. So what's going to happen in a place like NYC is that businesses will reopen but mostly people with money to burn will still be hiding (or at the country home). In some businesses and institutions, the lawyers will be advocating to continue shutting down or face liability suits--but probably the sane CEOs will look at the balance sheet and figure that being sued by old guy employee #2 is less expensive than staying completely closed.

The US is going to be the absolute worst case scenario of this thing except maybe for countries that essentially have no health care sector or government authority to speak of.

Maybe.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Hawkbit on April 01, 2020, 07:19:08 PM
Adam Schlesinger from Fountains of Wayne passed today due to this, age 52.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Comstar on April 01, 2020, 08:21:26 PM
Nearly everyone in my office is WFH, though we have 6 or so other IT people to handle laptop builds (which are still being handed out) and random people with PC's who don't have laptops yet :(



Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on April 01, 2020, 09:25:36 PM
So working from home is nice enough. I got out of the shower and went to the bedroom to put my clothes on, grabbed my sweatpants and looked over at the wife and said, "Putting on the uniform." Haven't heard her laugh like that in awhile.

I'm also getting to know all her co-workers thru just overhearing all her meetings. Dunno if I can take having two groups of office people in my house all the time.

my go outside and work from home outfits are, I've discovered, the exact same


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on April 01, 2020, 09:32:40 PM
My work at home outfits are not outfits. 


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on April 01, 2020, 09:57:01 PM
neither are mine :somediscordemojiicantusehere:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Surlyboi on April 01, 2020, 11:13:11 PM
Doing webex meetings on the terrace. It's almost the only outside time I've had.

Going to walk the three miles to my place to grab some other supplies and wave at my wife from afar before walking back up to my mother's place for a few more days. She's almost up to walking with a cane and it's almost been 15 days since she got out of the hospital. I'm working from home probably;y until mid may either way.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Chimpy on April 02, 2020, 01:15:28 AM
My "don't leave my house or interact with people for 2 weeks" timer keeps getting reset.

Saturday I needed to go to the hardware store for the tank fill mechanism for my toilet which only decides to fill on its own after flushing about 10% of the time.
Sunday, I had a hardware update issue at work that required me to go into the server room in my office to reseat something.
Monday, I had to visit our other datacenter on campus to resolve the same issue on another piece of the same model hardware.
Tomorrow or Friday I will need to go into the datacenter to replace a failed disk in one of our production VM hosts.

I might make it to 14 days in a row once by the time the stay at home order is lifted.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Cyrrex on April 02, 2020, 02:31:52 AM
What's the thinking about a 2 week timer for yourself?  I mean....it is more about what is happening out there, right?  You could successfully lock yourself in for 2 weeks, but then what?


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on April 02, 2020, 02:40:42 AM
Maybe he means not spreading it if he's infected but asymptotic?


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Chimpy on April 02, 2020, 07:44:36 AM
What's the thinking about a 2 week timer for yourself?  I mean....it is more about what is happening out there, right?  You could successfully lock yourself in for 2 weeks, but then what?

Mainly to see if I can do it without becoming convinced my soap is an ice cream bar.

Maybe he means not spreading it if he's infected but asymptotic?


Also this.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: NowhereMan on April 02, 2020, 08:45:10 AM
I've gotta say if it's the latter... going out for any reason that's not an emergency is pretty shitty to do to everyone you came into contact with...


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Chimpy on April 02, 2020, 08:52:25 AM
I've gotta say if it's the latter... going out for any reason that's not an emergency is pretty shitty to do to everyone you came into contact with...

I am only running under the assumption we all should be under that I got it at some point and I need to be careful to avoid other people.

And I am super careful about wearing gloves, not touching my face, washing my hands, etc.

Fuck I wipe down every single surface I touch with clorox wipes on my way out of the office when I am forced by circumstances outside of my control to go in.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: NowhereMan on April 02, 2020, 10:51:11 AM
I mean I assumed that you didn't actually have a reason to think you've been exposed but putting a 2 week timer on yourself and then going out (or resetting it anytime you've come within 2m of another human being) seems totally ineffective and a pretty good way to go insane :why_so_serious:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on April 02, 2020, 09:10:03 PM
This is going to be a pretty shitty couple of weeks when many people that were working so hard to stay safe realize that the assholes out there that were being ignorant infected them despite their precautions.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: MahrinSkel on April 02, 2020, 09:14:19 PM
At this point, every random asshole, and every idiot relation and friend that isn't as paranoid as you are, is a loaded gun pointed at your most at risk acquaintance or relative. Act accordingly. We're passing the point where you can go outside with a reasonable presumption of not crossing paths with a carrier.

--Dave


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on April 02, 2020, 09:16:29 PM
We long ago passed that point.  Assume everyone has it but you, and also that you have it and nobody else does (but will die if they get it).

In other news, Apple is doctoring.

https://www.apple.com/covid19 (https://www.apple.com/covid19)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Lucas on April 03, 2020, 06:35:20 PM
So, here in Italy we've reached the so called "plateau": numbers are stabilizing and/or decreasing all over the place, albeit at a very slow pace (deaths are still too many, but it will be the last number to decrease, unfortunately).

Lockdown is extended 'til April 13, but it will definitely go on 'til May 4th.

Our PM is starting to talk about the so called "Phase 2": start to actively hunt the virus, aggressively look for people who developed some sort of immunity and slowly re-open some non essential factories with much stricter safety measures in place; maybe some shops too, at least those which can assure proper social distancing (so, no restaurants, bars, disco, whatever).

Schools might get re-opened for a month and half for those students who have to undertake the overarching exam at the end of our fifth and final year of high school (the so called "esame di maturità"). Everyone else stays at home.
---

But it's also the phase everyone else, sooner or later, will face: start to get out again (at least in order to feed the family) and live together with Covid-19  while, hopefully, more focused drugs and therapies will be developed and tried out... 'til a vaccine is created.

It's gonna be a long, 18 month slog.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on April 03, 2020, 08:46:22 PM
There are a lot of wealthy people putting a lot of money into a gamble that businesses will be reopened and functioning by the end of summer.  NFL, movies, etc...

Regardless, I live in a state where the Governor thinks we're unique and we don't need a shelter in place order.  Still.  South Carolina is the Motel 6 of this thing - we'll keep the plague on for you.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: eldaec on April 04, 2020, 07:38:34 AM
In 'just how stupid would you have to be' news...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-52164358

Quote
Mobile phone masts have been torched and engineers abused over "baseless" theories linking coronavirus to 5G.

I'm genuinely unsure if I have less respect for the idiots torching phone masts or the idiots putting quote marks around the work baseless.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tale on April 04, 2020, 10:03:47 AM
In that context, the quote marks around "baseless" are simply meant to indicate that an expert is quoted in the story saying the claim is baseless. They're not being used to question whether it's baseless.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: eldaec on April 04, 2020, 10:40:17 AM
They've removed them now.

But they were there to report it as an opinion rather than fact. And they were just shitty journalism.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on April 04, 2020, 05:37:22 PM
So the house on the corner that has been flying a 'Women for Trump' flag for over a year now is staying true to stereotype and hosting a large gathering of people.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: MahrinSkel on April 04, 2020, 06:20:55 PM
So the house on the corner that has been flying a 'Women for Trump' flag for over a year now is staying true to stereotype and hosting a large gathering of people.
You should send them a gift box of kazoos and harmonicas.

--Dave


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on April 04, 2020, 06:23:26 PM
Gotta love those Corona Parties!


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on April 04, 2020, 06:37:28 PM
So the house on the corner that has been flying a 'Women for Trump' flag for over a year now is staying true to stereotype and hosting a large gathering of people.
You should send them a gift box of kazoos and harmonicas.

--Dave
I heard bubble blowers are a big hit in those kinds of gathering too.

Edit: add quote, page break


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on April 04, 2020, 07:14:45 PM
So the house on the corner that has been flying a 'Women for Trump' flag for over a year now is staying true to stereotype and hosting a large gathering of people.
You should send them a gift box of kazoos and harmonicas.

And then board their house up with them all in it.

Optional: Light the motherfucker on fire just to be sure.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on April 04, 2020, 07:56:54 PM
So the house on the corner that has been flying a 'Women for Trump' flag for over a year now is staying true to stereotype and hosting a large gathering of people.
You should send them a gift box of kazoos and harmonicas.

--Dave
Or arson.

Edit: Oh, new page, haemish said the obvious.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Gimfain on April 05, 2020, 05:00:10 AM
I got troubled by snow mold allergies bit over a week ago, itchy eyes, face feeling swollen around eyes and random sneezing when outdoors. Today I woke up by a mild sweat and bit moist pillow and body feels bit weird. If this would have been any other time I would have done exercise like normal but since nothing is normal I'm staying the fuck away from people.

Restaurant I work for is on the edge of toppling over, our biggest competitor gave up 1.5 week ago so it gave us some sort of minimal chance, also govt is doing some stuff to help businesses but we are all out of money. To make it worth investing more into company I did some calculations on what sort of numbers we could hope for in april and we told our largest creditors those numbers. Outcome for friday-saturday was a third of what I calculated, revenue for the weekend won't be enough to cover employee costs and not even close when you add raw material costs on top of that.

At least I shouldn't go to work tomorrow so can have that awful conversation with the owners on the phone instead.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Korachia on April 05, 2020, 06:26:04 AM
In 'just how stupid would you have to be' news...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-52164358

Quote
Mobile phone masts have been torched and engineers abused over "baseless" theories linking coronavirus to 5G.

I'm genuinely unsure if I have less respect for the idiots torching phone masts or the idiots putting quote marks around the work baseless.

Hahah I have an american friend I meet during my student exchange program many years ago, who keeps posting about this "theory" on facebook. He was actually quite a respectable person back then, before he got the crazies..  


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: NowhereMan on April 05, 2020, 07:05:43 AM
I actually had a social associate send that crap to a Whatsapp group. He's a nice guy and at least was posting it with a 'got sent this, is there anything to it?' rather than yelling about 5g cancers. Like all conspiracy theories there's about 6 different explanations of why 5g causes Coronavirus that are mutually exclusive but somehow all together provide 'more' proof than the single actual connection (nothing). The even more fun thing is that 5g signals are super short wave so the towers getting attacked are pretty much all 3/4g signal towers so the only people who are going to have any fucking data signal if these guys get going are people on 5g networks.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Korachia on April 05, 2020, 08:24:28 AM
Hah that's hilarious! I bet you they will have a conspiracy for that too.

What bugs me, is that in times of great uncertainty and insecurity like now, regular and low-information individuals are more prone to be influenced by these wretched and harmful mistruths.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on April 05, 2020, 07:32:24 PM
I wish the people in my area cared enough to have conspiracy theories.  A lot of them - even former New Yorkers that have friends in the city - are just not taking this seriously.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Korachia on April 06, 2020, 01:02:30 AM
That´s really self-centered, to the point of being egoistic. While they might not suffer too much, they could become carriers and infect old/vulnerable people. I don´t understand how they cannot take it just a bit seriously.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on April 06, 2020, 10:38:24 AM
Because they think it's a case of probability: "oh, even if I'm exposed, I'm only 3% likely to die and not that likely to have a serious case, so who cares". There are things in life where yes, you can go ahead and take risks where probability is that much in your favor. But what they refuse to see is that it's not their individual chances that are the issue here. If almost all of us who *can* stay isolated stay isolated, we're improving everyone's collective probability--changing what might be a 6-8% mortality to a 3% one, say.

I put it this way to a colleague who is maybe the only person around here who doesn't really understand what the big deal is. There's about 170 professors and instructors here. If 2% of us die, that's 3 people. In a given year, 3 serving faculty dying during a semester is unheard of--in the last three decades, I can only think of two faculty dying during an academic year. If 5% of us die, that's 8 or 9 of us. If 9% of us die, that's sixteen or so. If you can turn 8 or 9 percent to 2 percent, it's a huge difference in human terms, whatever your own individual exposure to risk might be.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on April 06, 2020, 12:40:54 PM
I feel like more people need to see what it's like to be intubated for a couple weeks. Just because 'you might not die', there's still a good chance that you'll experience the worst week or two of your life. And you may have long-term effects from the fibrosis in your lungs, and even the intubation itself. The fiancee's throat never recovered from her 2015 intubation (and that was just a small stomach drainage tube), she's had a persistent nagging cough for five years now.

People are excellent at rationalizing all kinds of really stupid behavior.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/04/05/youre-basically-right-next-nuclear-reactor/

Why would you not want to avoid being the victim here?


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: MahrinSkel on April 06, 2020, 01:16:57 PM
I can not emphasize enough how much being intubated on a ventilator sucks. Even with copious treatment with "Milk of Amnesia" (propofol), I remember being absolutely miserable, completely helpless, and scared out of my damned mind because when I came out of the propofol enough to be making new memories, I still couldn't remember where I was or why I was there.

Pretty sure I was just as terrified whenever I was conscious, I just don't remember it.

--Dave


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Lucas on April 06, 2020, 01:29:09 PM
I can not emphasize enough how much being intubated on a ventilator sucks. Even with copious treatment with "Milk of Amnesia" (propofol), I remember being absolutely miserable, completely helpless, and scared out of my damned mind because when I came out of the propofol enough to be making new memories, I still couldn't remember where I was or why I was there.

Pretty sure I was just as terrified whenever I was conscious, I just don't remember it.

--Dave

*distanced hug*


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Chimpy on April 06, 2020, 01:45:23 PM
I had to have a tube run down my nose into my stomach to pump out some pretty nasty stuff when I had an abcess from leftover appendix goo in my abdomen after my appendix was removed several years ago. Was the worst 4 days of my life.



Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Rasix on April 06, 2020, 04:35:16 PM
I can not emphasize enough how much being intubated on a ventilator sucks. Even with copious treatment with "Milk of Amnesia" (propofol), I remember being absolutely miserable, completely helpless, and scared out of my damned mind because when I came out of the propofol enough to be making new memories, I still couldn't remember where I was or why I was there.

Pretty sure I was just as terrified whenever I was conscious, I just don't remember it.

--Dave

Luckily enough I can't remember any of the time that I was intubated for my back surgery. My mom said it was one of the most horrifying things she's ever seen in her life. I do remember my throat feeling like someone had ripped a garden hose wrapped in barbed wire out of it.

The one time I did wake up, apparently I was on too many drugs to remember. I was told that I punched a nurse. That must have been interesting..


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: MahrinSkel on April 06, 2020, 05:14:12 PM
I knocked out a resident. Also pulled out a chest tube. I remember the chest tube, but not the resident. Explains why I was in restraints for the parts I do remember.

--Dave


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Mandella on April 06, 2020, 05:47:24 PM


Regardless, I live in a state where the Governor thinks we're unique and we don't need a shelter in place order.  S

That may be for the best for you if you are like our situation in Georgia, where when the Governor finally took action his restrictions where actually less than many of the measures local communities had already put in place.

Got a good meme out of it though.

(https://i.imgur.com/xUkRAy6.jpg)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on April 07, 2020, 02:17:06 PM
New twist to being the facilitator, shopper, and all-around point man for two households: my ankle. As in, I twisted it yesterday.

It was beautiful out, so I very carefully (nursing my persistent shoulder injury). Was just going to move 2-3 wheelbarrowfulls of split wood from the front yard to the back yard. Very first load, twisted my ankle (uneven ground because of skunk overpopulation, they dig the shit out of the yard). I swear the tree is cursed (my shoulder injury and almost losing 3 fingers, exacerbated my previous ankle injury on the OTHER ankle, now this).

I put this wonderful little tale in this thread because it kinda fucked us as far as dealing with the day-to-day of the current situation. Good times.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on April 07, 2020, 03:11:36 PM
Recent numbers have drastically dropped the expected numbers of deaths relative to prior data from the same models.  The inclusion of information from Spain and Italy (instead of relying heavily on China data) have had some dramatic effect.s   We'll see if that holds true.  US projected dead (by August 1) are at a little over 80K.  https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america (https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america) 

We shall see....


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on April 07, 2020, 03:43:00 PM
The key is this caveat right at the top.

Quote
COVID-19 projections assuming full social distancing through May 2020

Not a hope.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on April 07, 2020, 04:13:10 PM
I'm just about 100% positive that social distancing will be removed in my state by the end of April. I'm also 100% positive it will not be kept in place here through the end of May. Schools may be closed but businesses will be allowed to reopen whether it's a good idea or not.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Brolan on April 07, 2020, 07:10:12 PM
Even here in Minnesota they may allow some businesses to reopen.  They are getting nervous about the economy.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Hawkbit on April 07, 2020, 08:47:15 PM
New twist to being the facilitator, shopper, and all-around point man for two households: my ankle. As in, I twisted it yesterday.

It was beautiful out, so I very carefully (nursing my persistent shoulder injury). Was just going to move 2-3 wheelbarrowfulls of split wood from the front yard to the back yard. Very first load, twisted my ankle (uneven ground because of skunk overpopulation, they dig the shit out of the yard). I swear the tree is cursed (my shoulder injury and almost losing 3 fingers, exacerbated my previous ankle injury on the OTHER ankle, now this).

I put this wonderful little tale in this thread because it kinda fucked us as far as dealing with the day-to-day of the current situation. Good times.

Get these, wear them while it's healing:  https://www.amazon.com/Salonpas-Relieving-Shoulder-Muscle-Soreness/dp/B01ITWHT7C/ref=sr_1_6?dchild=1&keywords=salonpas&qid=1586310324&sr=8-6 (https://www.amazon.com/Salonpas-Relieving-Shoulder-Muscle-Soreness/dp/B01ITWHT7C/ref=sr_1_6?dchild=1&keywords=salonpas&qid=1586310324&sr=8-6)

It's essentially putting an 8-hour Icy Hot in place. They have saved my shit a few times and I SWEAR they have improved my recovery times.

EDIT: Also, get healing fast, man.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on April 08, 2020, 01:42:15 PM
My most recent conspiracy theory is that the whole Hydroxychloroquine thing is a pump-n-dump scheme  :awesome_for_real:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Salamok on April 08, 2020, 02:02:59 PM
My most recent conspiracy theory is that the whole HydroxychloroquineTrump presidency thing is a pump-n-dump scheme  :awesome_for_real:

FTFY


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on April 08, 2020, 04:54:03 PM
Nah, he's running more NYC scams than just the one.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tale on April 08, 2020, 07:07:52 PM
Recent numbers have drastically dropped the expected numbers of deaths relative to prior data from the same models.  The inclusion of information from Spain and Italy (instead of relying heavily on China data) have had some dramatic effect.s   We'll see if that holds true.  US projected dead (by August 1) are at a little over 80K.  https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america (https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america) 

We shall see....


Running at 2000/day at the moment in the US and rising. Looks much worse than that figure.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on April 08, 2020, 07:08:47 PM
COVID-19 may be twice as contagious as previous estimates (median R0 5.7).

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article?deliveryName=USCDC_333-DM25287

Quote
Abstract

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6–7 days and a basic reproductive number (R0) of 2.2–2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period. We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9). We further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on April 08, 2020, 07:11:54 PM
So, in short, China is a big sack of fucking liars and they have like 50m cases. Coolcoolcoolcoolcool.gif


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on April 09, 2020, 12:02:02 AM
Running at 2000/day at the moment in the US and rising. Looks much worse than that figure.
1900 or so, but yeah - huge spike today.  It spiked up to nearly double after slower growth for several days.  However, you have to expect a few spikes.  If we climb significantly again tomorrow and the next day, then we can worry that the projections are way off.

They think we're a few days away from the peak and then due to decline (across the US) with an expected value of deaths per day (DPD) capping out in the 2200 range this weekend. That means we can likely expect some spikes up to 3000 here or there over the next several days with some dips maybe as low as 1000.  This close to the projected peak, we would not expect to see such a massive shift.  However, some shit places, like my state, won't cap on DPD for several weeks, yet, and then it will still only be in the teens as an expected average (although given the state of shitty distancing I've seen, it could be weeks more before we peak, and our peak may last longer).


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on April 09, 2020, 08:11:09 AM
A lot of those more optimistic projections are predicated on maintaining social distancing rules until at least August.

That's not going to happen.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tale on April 09, 2020, 08:22:11 AM
They think we're a few days away from the peak and then due to decline (across the US)

The accumulation of deaths is a delayed result of the following patterns, so I can't agree with them yet.

(https://i.imgur.com/0u4TbLh.jpg)

(https://i.imgur.com/SfXnKfC.jpg)



Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Pennilenko on April 09, 2020, 09:18:56 AM
Personally, I think the numbers are shit. Mostly because testing is still lackluster. Although it is anecdotal, my wife was on a video call with her doctor for a cough and sore throat. The doctor told her that there would be no testing unless she went to a specific emergency room with breathing trouble. I really think there are a huge number of cases not being tested, especially in Florida.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on April 09, 2020, 09:22:46 AM
I'm pretty much just expecting that the number of ACTUAL cases not being tested is anywhere from 2x to 10x what we are seeing reported as actual cases. My state stopped reporting the number of tested over a week ago, and is only giving out the number of positive cases. "Only 2,000 new cases!" means nothing if you only tested 3,000 people who showed the worst symptoms.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Cyrrex on April 09, 2020, 10:24:55 AM
Well, it would be fine if that is what they were doing consistently, everywhere.  If they only tested people who are getting admitted (and there is room to admit everyone who needs it), that works.  But nothing is consistent in the states.

That is how they do it here in DK, and it works just fine.  You can then extrapolate the number of infected using that (somewhere between 3 and 6 times, I don’t know if that number is agreed yet).  If the number of people admitted is falling, and if you have capacity to manage it, then you are getting ahead of the curve.  Nothing else really matters.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on April 09, 2020, 11:01:51 AM
Numbers, generally, are shit.  Numbers dead are the most reliable indicators of spread, but even that is going to be off as some will die and we won't ever test them for the virus and others will die from non-viral0 influence, but will have the virus and be counted.  However, those differences should be small.

Well, really, the most reliable number seems to be my dipshit percentage calculation.  It is holding steady at 99.9% with a very low margin for error these days.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on April 09, 2020, 11:06:39 AM
I think I mentioned earlier in the thread but in case I didn't, NYC and other cities are seeing two things:

Very abnormally large numbers of reported deaths at home where the dead person is not being autopsied or tested for coronavirus.
Far fewer heart attack cases in ERs, far fewer stroke cases in ERs.

Inference:
Fear of seeking emergency care is leading to more people dying of other conditions, with most of them dying at home.
Some of the people dying at home probably had Covid-19 but we'll likely never know.

When we revisit these numbers in a few years, I think there are going to be plausible models that show that *everywhere* the deaths directly and indirectly attributable to Covid-19 were everywhere much higher than the reporting at the time suggested.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Hammond on April 09, 2020, 03:09:13 PM
I got into a discussion with one of our accountant's today about the numbers of confirmed cases in our area. Just to give some background our numbers of infected is pretty low but our testing level is also really low. He was trying to argue that the Pandemic is not a big deal due to the low numbers that we were seeing. My argument back is the numbers we are seeing are the tip of the iceberg and since you don't have a real handle on how bad it is you have to plan more for a worst case scenario.

He told me he cannot talk about this stuff with me anymore because I wasn't relying on the numbers... I just laughed and walked off. Accountants in general are a interesting bunch and he is no different.

On a separate note I am glad that a good portion of our population in Washington is taking it seriously enough. Hopefully that makes up for the idiots that buck the system and are going to get people killed.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: MahrinSkel on April 09, 2020, 04:00:02 PM
Even people who use math every day aren't able to intuitively grasp geometric growth. You might be able to explain it to him in terms of compound interest, where the rate is 10-15%, compounded daily. A small "debt" turns into a very big one.

In most fields, exponential growth can't continue very long before hit hits a limiting factor. With infectious disease, the limiting factor is when so many people have had it, it gets hard for the virus to find uninfected hosts. That is 40%, minimum.

You can simulate a lot of this in spreadsheets, but it's actually easier for someone that either designs games, or deconstructs them for powergaming, than for people who use math as accountants or engineers.

--Dave


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Salamok on April 09, 2020, 04:34:08 PM
The numbers are mostly bullshit beyond being able to tell your canary in the coal mine just died.  Some scary statistics can be falsely arrived at using the numbers we have.  350k people recovered and 95k dead world wide from covid-19 cases, so of covid 19 cases that have been tracked to a resolution 21% of the people died!  60% of a cruise ship contracted this disease, so in a closed system we have documented evidence that 60% are gonna get it!  Earth is a closed system of over 7 billion peoples so 4.2 billion people are going to get covid-19 and  882 million are going to die.  This is all bullshit of course, you cant compare earth to a cruise ship and ignore the million plus confirmed covid-19 individuals who do not have a documented outcome, i'm guessing that since those individuals are not in the morgue yet it is likely the outcome will skew positive.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on April 09, 2020, 05:12:45 PM
Not to mention that the terminally ill get inclucded in the numbers.  You can have a BMI of 55, have Stage IV cancer with 2 weeks to live, and if you catch Covid-19 and die you get picked up in the numbers. 


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Salamok on April 09, 2020, 05:16:52 PM
Not to mention that the terminally ill get inclucded in the numbers.  You can have a BMI of 55, have Stage IV cancer with 2 weeks to live, and if you catch Covid-19 and die you get picked up in the numbers.  

And I doubt they consistently follow up/retest the you tested positive and have the sniffles go home and self quarantine for 14 days.  Would love to see a statistic of how many people tested positive over 3 weeks ago and are not currently in the hospital or dead.  I would bet that there are more dead but untested positive cases than confirmed positive cases that died for unrelated reasons though.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on April 09, 2020, 05:26:47 PM
My most recent conspiracy theory is that the whole Hydroxychloroquine thing is a pump-n-dump scheme  :awesome_for_real:

Trump at least is predictable in that respect. Also yes the guy is actually called Joe Pizza I looked it up.

https://readsludge.com/2020/04/09/did-joe-pizza-tell-trump-about-hydroxychloroquine/

“ Trump donor Joseph Pizza, whose wife was serenaded by President Trump at Mar-a-Lago, runs a pharmaceutical company that sells hydroxychloroquine sulfate, the primary active ingredient of Plaquenil.”

http://www.interchem.com/


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tale on April 09, 2020, 06:26:14 PM
Pizzagate. There you have it.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Hammond on April 09, 2020, 06:50:25 PM
I tried a few different angles with the accountant and he just couldn't get past his spreadsheets.  In the future I will just not have those conversations with him. He tends to be a bit of a libertarian anyway so anything remotely political gets weird.

When all this is said and done it will be interesting to see the final statistics and see how close the modelers were to the actual numbers.



Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Abagadro on April 10, 2020, 12:38:44 AM
Far fewer heart attack cases in ERs, far fewer stroke cases in ERs.


I can provide a bit of info on this since I am actively involved in conversations about it.  So, one of the things about medical transports for these type of events is that they will try to get you resuscitated really quickly in the field as the oxygen flow to the brain is the top priority and has to happen REALLY QUICKLY.  If they can get you back breathing, they will then transport you as you have a decent chance of survival (subject to how long the initial response time was) with hospital care. However, if they don't revive you on scene they will "scoop and scoot" and continue to work you all the way to the hospital and if they pump enough shit into people and compress them enough you can usually get a pulse in the back of the box but they are likely brain dead already and have a very low survival rate once in the hospital. They basically end up PVS on vents until they pull the plug.  So, the decision was made in NYC that if they can't revive them on scene you simply don't transport and call it on scene. It's a harsh decision but makes sense when vents are so scarce and the survival rate so low for those not revived on scene.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: eldaec on April 10, 2020, 04:05:05 AM
When all this is said and done it will be interesting to see the final statistics and see how close the modelers were to the actual numbers.

To be fair to those models in advance, they all have enormous confidence intervals - which is the model's way of saying they have no fucking clue because insufficient data. Even those where the central estimate turns out roughly right will have been broken clocks.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on April 10, 2020, 08:29:49 AM
I tried a few different angles with the accountant and he just couldn't get past his spreadsheets.  In the future I will just not have those conversations with him. He tends to be a bit of a libertarian anyway so anything remotely political gets weird.

Tell this dipshit he has to do all his client's business taxes for the past 10 years, but the only books he can use are from January 2019 and they are just a stack of crumpled up receipts that smell like beer and vomit. Also, if he gets even one cent wrong on the return, the IRS will arrest him, sentence him to death by hanging and carry out the sentence slowly over 10-14 days while he dangles over an open flame.

If he doesn't get it then, just cough on him and move on with your life.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on April 10, 2020, 12:14:52 PM
I tried a few different angles with the accountant and he just couldn't get past his spreadsheets.  In the future I will just not have those conversations with him. He tends to be a bit of a libertarian anyway so anything remotely political gets weird.

Tell this dipshit he has to do all his client's business taxes for the past 10 years, but the only books he can use are from January 2019 and they are just a stack of crumpled up receipts that smell like beer and vomit. Also, if he gets even one cent wrong on the return, the IRS will arrest him, sentence him to death by hanging and carry out the sentence slowly over 10-14 days while he dangles over an open flame.

If he doesn't get it then, just cough on him and move on with your life.

I like this analogy.

Sweden is trying a different approach. Lot's of people will be copying it if it works https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/10/europe/sweden-lockdown-turmp-intl/index.html



Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on April 10, 2020, 01:10:20 PM
Sweden isn't quite the 'hold my beer' population of our nation.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on April 10, 2020, 01:16:10 PM
Cases of "recovered" patients being "reinfected" are showing up in South Korea now too:

https://fortune.com/2020/04/09/coronavirus-reinfection-fears-grow-cured-patients-test-positive-reactivated-virus/


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Salamok on April 10, 2020, 03:13:52 PM
It would be pretty bad if this ended up like some Herpes virus that goes into remission then flares up and every flareup you gotta roll the d20 to see how fucked you are.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on April 10, 2020, 06:09:12 PM
Or chicken pox that comes back to shingles.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: MahrinSkel on April 10, 2020, 06:23:33 PM
All of the cases so far (including those in the linked article) seem to be people who were recently (within a week or two) discharged from the hospital and then became ill again. So we're talking about a lingering infection with undetectable viral loads, or false negatives on the screening test, not a disease that hides for years and re-emerges.

--Dave


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on April 10, 2020, 06:35:12 PM
The current crop of corona tests has an accuracy of maybe 70%. There are lots of people with clear symptoms who had negative tests and vice versa.

Antibody tests are even less accurate. The major antibody Test for celiac disease for example (which I suffer from) only detects it in about fifty percent of all people affected.

People being ‚reinfected’ can mean all kinds of things at this moment.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Ashamanchill on April 10, 2020, 06:51:23 PM
Is that something vaguely resembling a sliver of hope from Jeff Kelly?


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on April 10, 2020, 06:52:37 PM
Quarantine does weird things to all of us, I guess


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on April 10, 2020, 07:53:22 PM
Also it's just cold facts that these tests and the dormancy of this thing are all just shit slices on a shitburger.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Abagadro on April 10, 2020, 07:57:56 PM
So I have a question for folks who use face masks regularly. I have some and when I put them on they only seem to serve to blow my breadth straight into my eyes, which seems....uh...counterproductive and also fogs up my glasses so I can't see.  Is there some magical way to fit/wear these things that I am too dense to figure out?


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on April 10, 2020, 08:07:24 PM
So I have a question for folks who use face masks regularly. I have some and when I put them on they only seem to serve to blow my breadth straight into my eyes, which seems....uh...counterproductive and also fogs up my glasses so I can't see.  Is there some magical way to fit/wear these things that I am too dense to figure out?

A recommendation I’ve seen a lot that actually seems to work is to put a folded tissue under the mask where the nose is.



Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Chimpy on April 10, 2020, 08:10:00 PM
So I have a question for folks who use face masks regularly. I have some and when I put them on they only seem to serve to blow my breadth straight into my eyes, which seems....uh...counterproductive and also fogs up my glasses so I can't see.  Is there some magical way to fit/wear these things that I am too dense to figure out?

If the mask doesn't have the little metal piece to mold over your nose, put double stick tape on it and press it down onto your nose.

Added bonus: it will clean out your pores  :why_so_serious:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Abagadro on April 10, 2020, 08:18:08 PM
Ive had the problem with both a cloth one without and an N95 with a metal tab. Just can't get them to fit right. I'm either a dope or have a weird head.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on April 10, 2020, 08:34:37 PM
weird head



Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Samwise on April 10, 2020, 08:36:03 PM
It would be pretty bad if this ended up like some Herpes virus that goes into remission then flares up and every flareup you gotta roll the d20 to see how fucked you are.
Or chicken pox that comes back to shingles.

Chicken pox is a herpesvirus, which is exactly why it's able to do that.

themoreyouknow.jpg


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on April 11, 2020, 01:30:20 PM
I switched from masks to a respirator for work/hobby stuff because I hated everything about n95 masks. I haven't been out of the house since the CDC bunglingly admitted we should be wearing masks in public.

At this point I'm thinking of modifying my Darth Vader helmet with a filter when I need to hit the supermarket again.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on April 11, 2020, 02:51:16 PM
There are 9 women in my little town sewing masks for Nurses on a voluntary basis. I went up on Tuesday to donate a couple of cotton Duvet covers, and they game me a free green fashion mask. Its pretty cool. Of course I should have made a photo to accompany this. Anyway it beats the shit out of a surgical mask.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Samwise on April 11, 2020, 02:56:11 PM
There are 9 women in my little town sewing masks for Nurses on a voluntary basis. I went up on Tuesday to donate a couple of cotton Duvet covers, and they game me a free green fashion mask. Its pretty cool. Of course I should have made a photo to accompany this. Anyway it beats the shit out of a surgical mask.

My mom has been cranking those out.  I ordered her some patterned fabric to make masks for the owners of my local pub (they're big Trek fans).

(https://i.imgur.com/xqSeihF.jpg)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on April 11, 2020, 03:02:16 PM
Ive had the problem with both a cloth one without and an N95 with a metal tab. Just can't get them to fit right. I'm either a dope or have a weird head.
There are versions that have a one way vent on the front which makes it easier to breath out of and helps prevent air from going up your face.

https://www.3m.com/3M/en_US/worker-health-safety-us/personal-protective-equipment/cool-respirator-mask/

Of course that does mean you can breath out the virus onto people through the vent :awesome_for_real: (I have mine taped off)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on April 11, 2020, 03:07:18 PM
My mom has been cranking those out.  I ordered her some patterned fabric to make masks for the owners of my local pub (they're big Trek fans).

Ya mine looks pretty similar


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Surlyboi on April 11, 2020, 06:19:30 PM
I modified my Destiny hunter helmet to take PD100 filters. Now I just need to work on some proper seals.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on April 11, 2020, 07:35:31 PM
Is this going to be one of those things where people get pimped out masks and then get sad that they don't really have a reason to use them once we get past the virus?  Are we going to end up with masks being fashionable?


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Chimpy on April 11, 2020, 08:26:56 PM
Is this going to be one of those things where people get pimped out masks and then get sad that they don't really have a reason to use them once we get past the virus?  Are we going to end up with masks being fashionable?


I live in a college town with several thousand Chinese nationals going to school here.

Probably 5-10% wear masks ALL the time.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Polysorbate80 on April 12, 2020, 06:02:36 AM
.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Goumindong on April 12, 2020, 06:20:58 PM
So I have a question for folks who use face masks regularly. I have some and when I put them on they only seem to serve to blow my breadth straight into my eyes, which seems....uh...counterproductive and also fogs up my glasses so I can't see.  Is there some magical way to fit/wear these things that I am too dense to figure out?

Its not counter productive unless it fogs your glasses up so that you run into things. Otherwise its doing more or less what it should. Keeping your breath near yourself.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Salamok on April 12, 2020, 09:45:25 PM
Honestly?  If I didn’t need to wear glasses half the time I’d get a pimped out steampunk plague doctor mask  :oh_i_see:

Bird mask or GTFO: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07B2HYJ7K


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on April 12, 2020, 10:01:12 PM
Honestly?  If I didn’t need to wear glasses half the time I’d get a pimped out steampunk plague doctor mask  :oh_i_see:

Bird mask or GTFO: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07B2HYJ7K

So angry it wasn't this: https://www.amazon.com/CreepyParty-Novelty-Halloween-Costume-Pigeon/dp/B010BRP7I6


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Salamok on April 13, 2020, 12:53:30 AM
Honestly?  If I didn’t need to wear glasses half the time I’d get a pimped out steampunk plague doctor mask  :oh_i_see:

Bird mask or GTFO: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07B2HYJ7K

So angry it wasn't this: https://www.amazon.com/CreepyParty-Novelty-Halloween-Costume-Pigeon/dp/B010BRP7I6

Well both will ensure that people stay 6' away from you.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Hammond on April 14, 2020, 08:08:44 PM
Been interesting working from home due to Covid-19. I am seeing things in my neighborhood that I normally wouldn't see. Like almost all my neighbors have yard services that take care of things and they don't even mow their lawns. Or like today a migrating bee swarm taking a pit stop in my yard before moving on in a few hours. Walking out my back door reminded me of a bad horror movie with all the buzzing. I called a local beekeeper but the bees flew off 15 minutes before he got here. He estimated that the swarm was somewhere around 15 to 20 thousand bees.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on April 14, 2020, 08:19:02 PM
Offtopic, I remember Michael Caine (after saying that he had made like 300 movies and by average half of them will be crap) being asked what the worst movie he was ever in was, and after thinking a second he said "The Swarm." And when asked why that one, he said way the Bees had to be locked into their hives between takes, and Bees apparently don't poo in their hives. So when they were let out they went and crapped all over the actors and everything else, and after a few takes their lab coats were a slight shade of brown.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on April 15, 2020, 01:56:41 AM
So, I got my Trump bucks. Wife and I are giving about a quarter of it to a restaurant that's feeding doctors and nurses. Provides food for a week. If any restaurants near you all are doing that, if you can spare the coin it's a pretty good cause. And if you want to but don't have a place doing it locally, I can link you to mine.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on April 15, 2020, 12:46:53 PM
Been interesting working from home due to Covid-19. I am seeing things in my neighborhood that I normally wouldn't see. Like almost all my neighbors have yard services that take care of things and they don't even mow their lawns. Or like today a migrating bee swarm taking a pit stop in my yard before moving on in a few hours. Walking out my back door reminded me of a bad horror movie with all the buzzing. I called a local beekeeper but the bees flew off 15 minutes before he got here. He estimated that the swarm was somewhere around 15 to 20 thousand bees.
I used a yard service for years, the old lady was paying for it as her way to pitch in for housework (because she doesn't do any). It was convenient, but I eventually had to fire them because they just sucked so bad. And they were the best in town. Most common was burning ruts into the yard by turning too hard and poor trimmer usage (also damaging just about everything at ground level with the trimmers). Worst was knocking downspout extensions off, my basement was flooded twice. I had been working with the business owner, sending him pictures and pressuring him through other business owners I know, but the second time the basement flooded I fired them on the spot.

Hard to find good help, people just don't give a fuck anymore. And charge through the nose. I have about a hundred projects that require a handyman's attention but there's nobody who can do small jobs well. And these fucking millennials bitch about the job market. Learn a trade, bitches.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Salamok on April 15, 2020, 02:01:13 PM
Not trying to espouse any number suppression cover up conspiracy sort of angle but I did find the City of Austin graph a bit surprising when i click to expand it:

" width="600" border="0


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on April 15, 2020, 02:18:23 PM
Jump happened when we had readily available tests. This is fairly known at this point.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Salamok on April 15, 2020, 03:10:54 PM
Not that, I was just surprised when the compressed graph used the same scale for the x axis as the non compressed and despite being compressed they used a max Y range of 1.5k instead of the uncompressed versions 1.1k (almost like saying hey lets add 50% more flatness).


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on April 16, 2020, 12:11:58 AM
i mean they made the graph on the left really fucking small lol


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on April 16, 2020, 12:41:34 PM
Just checked Ireland's graph on the Worldometer. It's depressing. 444 deaths, 12547 cases. Per capita we are actually worse than the USA right now, at least officially. We ARE better on per capita testing however, wnich counts for a lot, but we are still not great even on that.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/ireland/


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on April 16, 2020, 12:41:45 PM
Don't confuse idiocy with conspiracy.  


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on April 16, 2020, 07:00:36 PM
Just checked Ireland's graph on the Worldometer. It's depressing. 444 deaths, 12547 cases. Per capita we are actually worse than the USA right now, at least officially. We ARE better on per capita testing however, wnich counts for a lot, but we are still not great even on that.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/ireland/
Yeah Ireland's case curve is pretty scary looking right now.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: eldaec on April 17, 2020, 06:10:18 AM
I think Ireland's numbers are still too low to mean much, but anyone in Europe's best case is Germany, and worst is the UK/France/Spain/Italy, and let's be honest, no one except Germany is Germany.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tebonas on April 17, 2020, 07:02:36 AM
The Austrian numbers are besically the same, but we are used to being marginalized in comparasation to Germany, so I don't personally hate you for that wrong comment, eldaec ;)





Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on April 17, 2020, 07:05:23 AM
Ireland’s total cases to date per capita is already substantially higher than Germany’s (almost 2x) and basically at Italy-levels right now so that’s not good.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on April 17, 2020, 07:06:52 AM
The Austrian numbers are besically the same, but we are used to being marginalized in comparasation to Germany, so I don't personally hate you for that wrong comment, eldaec ;)
Yeah well Norway, Iceland and Finland are all doing better than you and Germany so there’s that too :awesome_for_real:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tebonas on April 17, 2020, 07:08:54 AM
But everybody knows Scandinavia does better in everything, we are all used to that.  :awesome_for_real:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: NowhereMan on April 17, 2020, 07:24:38 AM
Ireland’s total cases to date per capita is already substantially higher than Germany’s (almost 2x) and basically at Italy-levels right now so that’s not good.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


I have to admit to being a little confused on why. Ireland has been making the right noises and certainly seemed to be being stricter in reaction than the UK. Was it just the case that they were  significantly further along in terms of spread than the UK? Didn't seem to be the case from the reporting at the time I saw.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on April 17, 2020, 07:25:06 AM
...
Yeah well Norway, Iceland and Finland are all doing better than you and Germany so there’s that too :awesome_for_real:
Finland, in particular, is doing amazingly well as Finland has a devastatingly gorgeous Prime Minister. 

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVqG-CjVAAABMsK.jpg)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Chimpy on April 17, 2020, 07:29:28 AM
Hmm, Finland and Germany are doing well? And so is New Zealand?

Maybe having women in charge is a good thing, no?


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Cyrrex on April 17, 2020, 07:36:08 AM
...
Yeah well Norway, Iceland and Finland are all doing better than you and Germany so there’s that too :awesome_for_real:
Finland, in particular, is doing amazingly well as Finland has a devastatingly gorgeous Prime Minister. 

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVqG-CjVAAABMsK.jpg)

Okay, I saw a picture the other day and thought "it was probably just good lighting", but holy god damn!


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Fraeg on April 17, 2020, 01:32:36 PM
and now for something completely unrelated:

 :awesome_for_real: I have a ticket on Finnish airlines to fly into Helsinki next month 5/15/20...  :why_so_serious:

guessing that is a thousand dollars I might never see again (they made the ticket good for a year, but yeah.. )




Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on April 17, 2020, 01:51:08 PM
It's safer to be in Finland than the US. You may want to fly over (assuming they let you in after a quarantine period) and just not leave until this is all over (for now).



Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on April 17, 2020, 02:17:37 PM
Finland, in particular, is doing amazingly well as Finland has a devastatingly gorgeous Prime Minister. 
Finland is led by five women, with all but one younger than 35.

(https://i.imgur.com/E2SLxew.jpg)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on April 17, 2020, 03:32:36 PM
The projections in the US that I have been following are suddenly more optimistic.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

We'll see.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on April 17, 2020, 04:21:27 PM
I don't understand how that site is making its projections. Way too many countries and US states are all peaking at or around May 1st for total deaths and then flat-lining right after no matter how many days its been since their peak daily deaths.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on April 17, 2020, 04:30:43 PM
I've been watching those numbers for my state and I think they might be working under the assumption that our leaders are not going to try to force every business they can to reopen right about the time we should be keeping them closed.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Salamok on April 17, 2020, 04:59:57 PM
The projections in the US that I have been following are suddenly more optimistic.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

We'll see.

Why do I feel like Trump grabbed his Sharpie marker and drew the line he wanted inside the "we have no fucking clue" sized area of uncertainty?


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on April 17, 2020, 06:02:41 PM
My 80 year old uncle is currently in a cancer ward after a tumor in his lung was removed, he suffers from a lung infection and pneumonia as complications from the operation. (Not Covid related). Pneumonia at this age is usually not a good sign, it’s usually an early indicator for multiple organ failure and death.

He probably doesn’t have a lot of time left and I’ll not be able to visit him. Or even attend his funeral if it came to him dying.

We didn’t have the best relationship but damn it sucks regardless. Thanks to this whole mess I won’t even be able to be with my family and my Dad (who is my uncle’s brother) during all of this.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on April 17, 2020, 06:47:06 PM
The site is from The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).  It is is an independent global health research center at the University of Washington.  I believe them to be independent and trying to project things as best they can.

There predictions have Deaths per Day dropping dramatically in California very soon.  That'll be a big indicator of how reasonable these estimates are.  You'll notice there is a huge range on the number of deaths per day possible for most states.  Michigan projects at 124, but the potential range is between 10 and 508.  Essentially, their numbers indicate that we're at the point where our isolation strategies should be having an impact on the number of deaths (as deaths occur weeks after infection and it has been several weeks since we took more drastic steps to isolate people).  That makes some sense. We may be on a decline at this point.  Until we lift the preventative measures and.... boom.

…. and Texas.  At least my state wasn't the first one to start rebuggering. (https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/politics/texas-economy-reopen-testing-coronavirus/index.html)

… and Silicon Valley. We just make technology.  Who needs math. (https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/health/santa-clara-coronavirus-infections-study/index.html)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on April 17, 2020, 09:01:59 PM
Texas isn't reopening. Read the plan. They're going to allow curbside pickup at retail. We ain't doin shit.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on April 17, 2020, 09:17:36 PM
… and Silicon Valley. We just make technology.  Who needs math. (https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/health/santa-clara-coronavirus-infections-study/index.html)
Not sure what the point of your title is. The Stanford study confirms what we already know which is that there's a lot of people out there who have had it and didn't know it either cause they never got tested or the test failed to detect it.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on April 17, 2020, 11:34:21 PM
I've had a cough for nearly 2 weeks now.

It's not corona, but I really badly wish it was. Not even bothering getting tested because it's such a wet cough. Getting tested would *increase* my exposure.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: eldaec on April 18, 2020, 04:52:51 AM
Plus if you get tested positive there is jack shit they can do about it.

I've been in the same position for the last couple of weeks, but then last few of days suddenly much worse, and my son suddenly had cough day 1, fever day 2, and now apparently fine. So... maybe... no clue really.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on April 18, 2020, 08:01:02 AM
Texas isn't reopening. Read the plan. They're going to allow curbside pickup at retail. We ain't doin shit.
I did.  Mostly about the lack of testing, honestly.  However, the two key words jumped out: "Incremental steps"

Texas will keep expanding action until they see the resurgence.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on April 18, 2020, 08:28:36 AM
Some positive news on the re-infection reporting

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/health/south-korea-coronavirus-retesting-positive-intl-hnk/index.html

Quote
The KCDC has re-investigated three cases from the same family where patients tested positive after recovering, Kwon says.

In each of these cases, scientists tried to incubate the virus but weren't able to -- that told them there was no live virus present.
Like many countries, South Korea uses a reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) to test for the virus. The RT-PCR test works by finding evidence of a virus's genetic information -- or RNA -- in a sample taken from the patient.
According to Kwon, these tests may still be picking up parts of the RNA even after the person has recovered because the tests are so sensitive.



Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on April 18, 2020, 09:12:49 AM
Texas isn't reopening. Read the plan. They're going to allow curbside pickup at retail. We ain't doin shit.
I did.  Mostly about the lack of testing, honestly.  However, the two key words jumped out: "Incremental steps"

Texas will keep expanding action until they see the resurgence.
That requires the cities to play ball (spoiler: we won't)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on April 18, 2020, 09:15:33 AM
Plus if you get tested positive there is jack shit they can do about it.

I've been in the same position for the last couple of weeks, but then last few of days suddenly much worse, and my son suddenly had cough day 1, fever day 2, and now apparently fine. So... maybe... no clue really.

Yeah, we had laryngitis or some bullshit come through the house (our symptoms were classic), but it has lasted longer than normal. Granted we didn't see a doctor or anything and are just letting it play out because we know it's functionally harmless. But man, having a cough for 2 weeks during Pangolin Lung Season is trash.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on April 18, 2020, 12:40:56 PM
Some positive news on the re-infection reporting

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/health/south-korea-coronavirus-retesting-positive-intl-hnk/index.html

Quote
The KCDC has re-investigated three cases from the same family where patients tested positive after recovering, Kwon says.

In each of these cases, scientists tried to incubate the virus but weren't able to -- that told them there was no live virus present.
Like many countries, South Korea uses a reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) to test for the virus. The RT-PCR test works by finding evidence of a virus's genetic information -- or RNA -- in a sample taken from the patient.
According to Kwon, these tests may still be picking up parts of the RNA even after the person has recovered because the tests are so sensitive.
However some of those testing positive again are also getting symptoms again too, albeit mild so far.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/17/836747242/in-south-korea-a-growing-number-of-covid-19-patients-test-positive-after-recover


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: eldaec on April 18, 2020, 03:42:00 PM
Mild symptoms are indistinguishable from a regular cold though, so... I guess we know nothing.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on April 18, 2020, 03:51:03 PM
Mild symptoms are indistinguishable from a regular cold though, so... I guess we know nothing.

And this is why my shortly gonna hit 2 week cough makes me really hope it's corona. I'm not buying this "you don't get immunity" thing until it's proven without a doubt.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Brolan on April 18, 2020, 05:16:57 PM
If your body can't fight off the virus eventually then you would die from it, right?  So you must be building some form of immunity once you are infected.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on April 18, 2020, 05:57:03 PM
There are a lot of angles to reinfection.  One would be whether the antibodies remain strong enough in the system to fight it off the next time.  Another would be if the virus tweaks itself fast enough that the antibodies you develop to fight it off in April are well suited to fight off the version you encounter in September.  There are a bunch of other angles.  You can find some online scholarly works on it (as opposed to the crap the media is releasing for clickbait).

There are a lot of stories out there from people that got this thing.  Some of them feature otherwise healthy people in their 30s and 40s that had it for a few weeks and barely showed any symptoms - and then were gone in a week.  It is a small percentage - but if you've played enough games, you know the really improbably turns up every once in a while.  You don't want to play games with this virus.  It may take a while to really get going in your lungs, but if your body just happens to have trouble fighting it off (which can happen to anyone) when it is in your lungs, you're looking at major permanent lung damage at best (shortening your life span and quality of life dramatically), and a week long painful descent into death at the other end of things.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on April 30, 2020, 02:14:20 AM
Placebo-controlled trial of remdesivir has shown a modest benefit. Trial is sponsored by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the National Institutes of Health.

Summary: median recovery time for those receiving drug was 11 days vs 15 days on placebo. Lower mortality rate was reported as well for remdesivir group but apparently that was not statistically significant. As is now typical regarding SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 studies these results haven't been peer-reviewed yet.

NIAID annoncement:
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/news-events/nih-clinical-trial-shows-remdesivir-accelerates-recovery-advanced-covid-19

New York Times article:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/29/health/gilead-remdesivir-coronavirus.html


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on April 30, 2020, 01:45:50 PM
Summary by Bill Gates of the vaccine development process and how it might play out for the COVID-19 vaccines:

https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/What-you-need-to-know-about-the-COVID-19-vaccine


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on April 30, 2020, 02:50:05 PM
Summary by Bill Gates of the vaccine development process and how it might play out for the COVID-19 vaccines:

https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/What-you-need-to-know-about-the-COVID-19-vaccine


Maybe we get a vaccine for the common cold after all this is done. 


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Ashamanchill on May 01, 2020, 01:15:45 AM
There's like a hundred viruses associated with the common cold.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Cyrrex on May 01, 2020, 03:07:32 AM
There's like a hundred viruses associated with the common cold.

Obviously he means the REALLY COMMON cold.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on May 01, 2020, 04:03:56 AM
There's like a hundred viruses associated with the common cold.

Sorry for looking for something positive.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on May 01, 2020, 01:27:43 PM
More like we'll now have Nyquil for covid19. The money is not in the cure, we live in a capitalist world. Now shut up and enter your payment info.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on May 01, 2020, 01:47:52 PM
More like we'll now have Nyquil for covid19. The money is not in the cure, we live in a capitalist world. Now shut up and enter your payment info.

If we get a vaccine for Covid-19 it will be the first vaccine for a Coronavirus and there would be tons of money for an annual common cold vaccine :)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on May 01, 2020, 02:02:27 PM
The coronaviruses that cause the common cold do account for a decent chunk of the infections, perhaps up to a 1/3rd. So if developing vaccines for coronaviruses becomes easier and (much) cheaper after all of this then perhaps somebody will make a vaccine for the 4 coronaviruses that cause the common cold.

Edit: sauces

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/general-information.html
Quote
Common human coronaviruses, including types 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1, usually cause mild to moderate upper-respiratory tract illnesses, like the common cold

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3416289/
Quote
Epidemiological studies suggest that HCoVs account for 15 to 30% of common colds


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on May 01, 2020, 04:09:59 PM
Yeah, I was pretty sure that rhinoviruses are most of what we call "the common cold".


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Salamok on May 01, 2020, 07:11:21 PM
Texas isn't reopening. Read the plan. They're going to allow curbside pickup at retail. We ain't doin shit.

Reopening the Texas Economytm


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Salamok on May 01, 2020, 07:20:37 PM
More like we'll now have Nyquil for covid19. The money is not in the cure, we live in a capitalist world. Now shut up and enter your payment info.

Just as long as it isn't regular Nyqil which contains dextromethorphan  (https://www.kqed.org/science/1963298/common-ingredient-in-common-cough-medicine-might-promote-coronavirus-study-finds)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Polysorbate80 on May 01, 2020, 07:31:34 PM
.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: NowhereMan on May 02, 2020, 06:26:03 AM
Placebo-controlled trial of remdesivir has shown a modest benefit. Trial is sponsored by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the National Institutes of Health.

Summary: median recovery time for those receiving drug was 11 days vs 15 days on placebo. Lower mortality rate was reported as well for remdesivir group but apparently that was not statistically significant. As is now typical regarding SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 studies these results haven't been peer-reviewed yet.

NIAID annoncement:
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/news-events/nih-clinical-trial-shows-remdesivir-accelerates-recovery-advanced-covid-19

New York Times article:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/29/health/gilead-remdesivir-coronavirus.html


One of the researchers who worked on that does regular Instagram stories on stuff (@gutterkingbaby) and is well worth a follow. Hell might be worth creating an instagram account. She made the point that this whole study was funded by the NIH and if it shows positive outcomes keep a close on eye on Gilead's pricing for Remdesivir because they saved a ton of R&D costs not having to run the trial themselves and had the whole process massively streamlined for them by the US government.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on May 02, 2020, 12:45:53 PM
More like we'll now have Nyquil for covid19. The money is not in the cure, we live in a capitalist world. Now shut up and enter your payment info.

Just as long as it isn't regular Nyqil which contains dextromethorphan  (https://www.kqed.org/science/1963298/common-ingredient-in-common-cough-medicine-might-promote-coronavirus-study-finds)
Sure.

Quote
“Sorting all that out, obviously, would be important,” he said. “But I just cannot imagine that this has a real impact on patients taking Robitussin.”


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on May 02, 2020, 02:40:28 PM
Placebo-controlled trial of remdesivir has shown a modest benefit. Trial is sponsored by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the National Institutes of Health.

Summary: median recovery time for those receiving drug was 11 days vs 15 days on placebo. Lower mortality rate was reported as well for remdesivir group but apparently that was not statistically significant. As is now typical regarding SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 studies these results haven't been peer-reviewed yet.

NIAID annoncement:
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/news-events/nih-clinical-trial-shows-remdesivir-accelerates-recovery-advanced-covid-19

New York Times article:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/29/health/gilead-remdesivir-coronavirus.html
One of the researchers who worked on that does regular Instagram stories on stuff (@gutterkingbaby) and is well worth a follow. Hell might be worth creating an instagram account. She made the point that this whole study was funded by the NIH and if it shows positive outcomes keep a close on eye on Gilead's pricing for Remdesivir because they saved a ton of R&D costs not having to run the trial themselves and had the whole process massively streamlined for them by the US government.
Regardless of whether or not the NIH is helping funding these trials, Gilead will be under tremendous pressure to keep pricing "reasonable" if it turns out to be an effective treatment and better than the other alternatives being trialed. I.e. if Gilead tried to price it for maximum profits even the Republicans in Congress would be forced to do something about that. However I put reasonable in quotes cause it turns out that remdesivir is (currently) not easy to make so it may still be an expensive drug even "at cost". For an amusing read on what it takes to synthesize remdesivir check out: OMG! We Made One Gram Of Remdesivir! (https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/03/26/problem-remdesivir-making-it-14665)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Hawkbit on May 05, 2020, 12:00:59 AM
Absolutely surreal video of an empty Seattle: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2qm9QZ_RzZc&feature=youtu.be

Of course they filmed early in the day to minimize traffic and people out an about. However, Seattle is the first city I lived in where there's *always* people out. This is just odd looking.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: MahrinSkel on May 05, 2020, 12:11:17 AM
Absolutely surreal video of an empty Seattle: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2qm9QZ_RzZc&feature=youtu.be

Of course they filmed early in the day to minimize traffic and people out an about. However, Seattle is the first city I lived in where there's *always* people out. This is just odd looking.
I was a street urchin in Seattle 35 years ago. Even at 3-4 o'clock, there were always people about.

--Dave


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on May 05, 2020, 12:09:28 PM
That remdesvir article was great, thank you for linking it.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on May 05, 2020, 06:41:31 PM
Some recent information regarding Vitamin D and COVID-19.

A retrospective study done in Indonesia[1] (presumably non-peer reviewed) concluded that those studied with serum 25(OH)D (Vitamin D in the blood) of <=29 ng/ml had significantly higher death rates (7x - 10x) than those with >30 ng/ml. Note that since this wasn't a randomized double blind placebo controlled trial this is only correlation that's being shown here.

However there is a hypothesis that was recently proposed in a non-peer reviewed study[2] that Vitamin D may be suppressing the cytokine storm associated with more severe COVID-19 cases. This study used CRP levels as a proxy for Vitamin D levels since Vitamin D blood level measurements were unavailable so it's even more indirect.

Vitamin D plays an important part in our immune system[3] and has been shown in RDBPCTs to reduce the rates of acute respiratory tract infections among those with low levels of Vitamin D[4] so it wouldn't surprise me if it's shown that it has an effect(s) on COVID-19 as well.

Personally I've been taking a Vitamin D3 supplement daily since mid-2017 when I stopped going out regularly in the daytime so hopefully that's offering at least some protection. On average each additional 100 IU of Vitamin D3 will raise serum 25(OH)D by 1 ng/ml[5] so 2500 IU (a common supplement dosage amount here in the US) a day should may keep you above 30 ng/ml assuming a minimal amount being generated from some sunlight exposure or food sources.

However Vitamin D is a hormone and it's fat soluble (so you should take supplements with some fat) so excess amounts will stick around in your body unlike water-soluble vitamins like Vitamin C that you pee out so more is not necessarily better. In fact 25(OH)D >60 ng/ml may be associated with adverse effects[6] and even higher levels can be toxic.

Also you should not be taking medical advice from strangers on the Internet.

[1] Patterns of COVID-19 Mortality and Vitamin D: An Indonesian Study (https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3585561)

[2] The Possible Role of Vitamin D in Suppressing Cytokine Storm and Associated Mortality in COVID-19 Patients (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.08.20058578v3)

[3] Vitamin D and respiratory health (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2759054/)

[4] Vitamin D supplementation to prevent acute respiratory tract infections: systematic review and meta-analysis of individual participant data (https://www.bmj.com/content/356/bmj.i6583)

[5] Vitamin D in health and disease (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18525006)

[6] Health Risks from Excessive Vitamin D (https://ods.od.nih.gov/factsheets/VitaminD-HealthProfessional/#h8)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on May 05, 2020, 10:27:58 PM
It wouldn't be a message board if someone wasn't trying to get you to take the D.

Interesting tidbit.  I'll be looking into it further. 


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Brolan on May 05, 2020, 11:59:22 PM
My doctor has me taking 50K units once a month.  I have no idea how that matches up to the 30ng/ml sweet spot.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on May 06, 2020, 12:55:30 AM
According to this study it looks like your chances are decent (42%) that you are >=30 ng/ml, assuming you are similar (enough) to the patients studied.

EVALUATION OF VITAMIN D REPLETION REGIMENS TO CORRECT VITAMIN D STATUS IN ADULTS (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2683376/)

You would be in treatment plan #2 in the study.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Gimfain on May 06, 2020, 03:23:37 AM
There will be lots of plague doctors with various remedies all promising to provide a cure for the disease.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: eldaec on May 06, 2020, 03:54:24 AM
I'd guess the counterargument is that normal vitamin D levels in gen pop are presumably an indicator that someone is outside seeing the sun a normal amount and therefore likely to be generally healthy?


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on May 06, 2020, 02:09:46 PM
Saw this on SA:

"Colorado man who organized Anti-Quarantine/Open Carry Rally in Denver get's yelled at by his mom on live stream."

Mom yells at around 19:26.

https://youtu.be/XcGzVnUyegA?t=1148


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Samwise on May 06, 2020, 03:09:07 PM
Saw this on SA:

"Colorado man who organized Anti-Quarantine/Open Carry Rally in Denver get's yelled at by his mom on live stream."

Mom yells at around 19:26.

https://youtu.be/XcGzVnUyegA?t=1148

Worth turning the volume up for that one.  I LOL'd.   :why_so_serious:



Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on May 06, 2020, 03:24:35 PM
Yeah, probably should've muted the mic before going inside.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Salamok on May 06, 2020, 04:56:40 PM
Lol Cartman in real life, but maaah i'm trying to organize the resistance!


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on May 06, 2020, 06:31:03 PM
This has been one of the most depressing things in my life because of the major fucking idiocy of some of the people I formerly respected.  The number of jackasses that are itching to get out there and making jokes about the virus on my Facebook feed one post away from someone I know in the medical field or in New York … ugh.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Gimfain on May 07, 2020, 10:58:18 AM
Both me and my brother managed to get it, or at least most likely its this one because neither of us feel the need to get it tested. He is on day 6, i am on day 2. Both of us feels like its quite different, feels like we aren't healthy but not truly ill. I woke up drenched in sweat yesterday, with muscles feeling fatigued and body just feeling tired. Today I woke up horribly dehydrated, same muscle fatigue, after a nap I felt the same kind of dehydration again. It feels like it wouldn't take much to make be out of breath. No coughs or anything else though. Its fairly similar to what my brother experience.

The boredom of having to isolate myself......fuck me its going to be dull.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on May 07, 2020, 11:02:49 AM
Both me and my brother managed to get it, or at least most likely its this one because neither of us feel the need to get it tested. He is on day 6, i am on day 2. Both of us feels like its quite different, feels like we aren't healthy but not truly ill. I woke up drenched in sweat yesterday, with muscles feeling fatigued and body just feeling tired. Today I woke up horribly dehydrated, same muscle fatigue, after a nap I felt the same kind of dehydration again. It feels like it wouldn't take much to make be out of breath. No coughs or anything else though. Its fairly similar to what my brother experience.

The boredom of having to isolate myself......fuck me its going to be dull.

This thing can turn fast on you, so don't hesitate to call a doctor of you feel worse.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Brolan on May 07, 2020, 11:10:26 AM
Yeah, do you have access to an oximeter?  Either at your clinic or a drug store?  If your oxygen saturation is less than 92% then you should go in.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on May 07, 2020, 11:35:53 AM
The boredom of having to isolate myself......fuck me its going to be dull.

you... should've already been doing that


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Chimpy on May 07, 2020, 11:57:25 AM
Both me and my brother managed to get it, or at least most likely its this one because neither of us feel the need to get it tested. He is on day 6, i am on day 2. Both of us feels like its quite different, feels like we aren't healthy but not truly ill. I woke up drenched in sweat yesterday, with muscles feeling fatigued and body just feeling tired. Today I woke up horribly dehydrated, same muscle fatigue, after a nap I felt the same kind of dehydration again. It feels like it wouldn't take much to make be out of breath. No coughs or anything else though. Its fairly similar to what my brother experience.

The boredom of having to isolate myself......fuck me its going to be dull.

This thing can turn fast on you, so don't hesitate to call a doctor of you feel worse.

(http://flatbeat.net/stuff/butsweden.png)



Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Mandella on May 07, 2020, 12:00:59 PM
I'd guess the counterargument is that normal vitamin D levels in gen pop are presumably an indicator that someone is outside seeing the sun a normal amount and therefore likely to be generally healthy?

Yeah, the correlation is not causation problem. Still, glad I've been on doctor prescribed D supplements for a while since low vitamin levels were associated with my reoccurring periodontal syndrome and implant rejection (sorry for the TMI, but this is a medical thread).

In other news, sent my wife in this morning to get an antibody test. The thing is, she got sick with all the symptoms back in early January. So did another friend, who also got tested today.

We'll see by next week if we get to add to the number of cases that appear to have happened well before the outbreak "officially" happened.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on May 07, 2020, 12:10:23 PM
Both me and my brother managed to get it, or at least most likely its this one because neither of us feel the need to get it tested. He is on day 6, i am on day 2. Both of us feels like its quite different, feels like we aren't healthy but not truly ill. I woke up drenched in sweat yesterday, with muscles feeling fatigued and body just feeling tired. Today I woke up horribly dehydrated, same muscle fatigue, after a nap I felt the same kind of dehydration again. It feels like it wouldn't take much to make be out of breath. No coughs or anything else though. Its fairly similar to what my brother experience.

The boredom of having to isolate myself......fuck me its going to be dull.

This thing can turn fast on you, so don't hesitate to call a doctor of you feel worse.

(http://flatbeat.net/stuff/butsweden.png)



You're one of those people that can't leave politics behind?


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on May 07, 2020, 01:08:43 PM
Both me and my brother managed to get it, or at least most likely its this one because neither of us feel the need to get it tested. He is on day 6, i am on day 2. Both of us feels like its quite different, feels like we aren't healthy but not truly ill. I woke up drenched in sweat yesterday, with muscles feeling fatigued and body just feeling tired. Today I woke up horribly dehydrated, same muscle fatigue, after a nap I felt the same kind of dehydration again. It feels like it wouldn't take much to make be out of breath. No coughs or anything else though. Its fairly similar to what my brother experience.

The boredom of having to isolate myself......fuck me its going to be dull.

Ya, it really is a killer to be isolated. I've been doing the shutting in thing for nearly two months now and it's still not easy. Its not a thing you can get used to, especially when you have the stress of the disease. All i can suggest is keep an eye on your blood oxygen if you can, and play some music while you are in bed so you are not listening to silence. Or podcasts. Whatever you are into. Don't listen to Silence as the isolation and thoughts can overwhelm you. I don't know how the health services are in Sweden right now but they are at least better than Ireland so you are lucky in that.

Keep us posted regularly as well. It really helps to touch base with people, and I for one would like to know you are doing ok.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on May 07, 2020, 04:40:37 PM
The closing for house we are buying is on Monday and we just got the "New Covid-19" procedures.  It's a lot different than the last time I bought a house:

You will drive up to the designated area in the parking lot and call us
when you have arrived. Your closer will have already introduced
herself and given you a phone number to call.
 The closer will then come out to your vehicle. She will ask that you
hold your picture ID up to the window so she can take a picture of it
for our records.
 You will then be given a pen and the documents that need to be
notarized. She will be explaining the documents and where to sign
over the phone.
 The closer will then take those documents back into the office to
notarize.
 While she is doing that, you will sign the remaining the remaining
documents and will call the closer if you have questions or concerns,
or to let her know when you have completed the signing.
 Your copies of these closing documents will be emailed or mailed to
you after closing.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Hawkbit on May 07, 2020, 07:48:34 PM
We are doing similar for renting apartments. Folks don't even get to see the actual apartment outside of a youtube video prior to signing the lease. It's wild - we're moving folks into our buildings without ever meeting them. I just did a lease entirely through email, never even spoke to the person.

 


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: 01101010 on May 07, 2020, 07:57:53 PM
We are doing similar for renting apartments. Folks don't even get to see the actual apartment outside of a youtube video prior to signing the lease. It's wild - we're moving folks into our buildings without ever meeting them. I just did a lease entirely through email, never even spoke to the person.

Hoping this will be me soon... but since hiring processes have ground to a halt, I am still in limbo with a job I have been interviewing for. They keep calling me to update me that I am still their top candidate but everything has been frozen.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Gimfain on May 08, 2020, 09:33:24 AM
Day 3 and just like any illness, start by feeling fine enough to do things and realize i'm not so fine after being awake for an hour. Its far from any illness I have had though, no fever, no visible signs, no coughs, no real pain, lungs feels like they operate at 90% of what they normally can do but I can take deep breaths like I did a week ago, its nothing compare to the regular seasonal flu where it feels lik you cough up your lung.

A friend of our bar boss' had it, his lungs got to the point where  he could just take small sips of air even if he tried to breathe deep. A bridge partner that is in his early 30's spent 2.5 weeks being ill, worst part for him was that it felt like there was a substance in his lung that he just couldn't cough up but apart from that it never got bad. A former bridge team mate in his early 60's spent at week at hospital getting oxygen after feeling bit worse from it, its the important preventive care that stops people from going in late and ending up at hospital in really bad shape.

The owner asked me yesterday if I could work today and started babbling about it possibly being allergies and not covid-19, its because of psychopaths like him that its going to keep spreading and everyone going to get it in the end. The other owner tells me to stay the fuck away from the place, then again it wasn't until a business contact to him died from it that he realized the harm it can do to people that's close to the age of retirement. Before that he had the attitude of it just being another swine flu.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on May 08, 2020, 11:23:42 AM
Get tested.  If you think you have it, get tested.  Period.  If not for you, for other people.  It adds to the statistics and lets you tell people with certainty that they've been near someone that had it.

All this assumes you can get tested.  There are still some places where that is problematic.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on May 08, 2020, 12:31:39 PM
Get tested.  If you think you have it, get tested.  Period.  If not for you, for other people.  It adds to the statistics and lets you tell people with certainty that they've been near someone that had it.

All this assumes you can get tested.  There are still some places where that is problematic.

Testing seems to be easing up a bit.  Today they have a thing in the local news begging people to get tested because the sites they setup are way below capacity.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on May 08, 2020, 07:26:27 PM
A look into how South Korea's contact tracing system works:

Seoul’s Radical Experiment in Digital Contact Tracing (https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/seouls-radical-experiment-in-digital-contact-tracing)

Outline.com version in case you get paywalled (https://outline.com/BuNyzn)

Edit: contact


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on May 08, 2020, 09:30:54 PM
Really interesting piece. I think the cafe owner has a point: if you're going big data and tracing, go all the way. Don't just tell people "a positive stopped in that coffee shop today" but "they were there for no more than two minutes and the cafe is taking thorough precautions."

Not for the first time, I'm really wondering where we'd be if this virus was closer to SARS--say, 10-15% IFR and fairly indiscriminate about the age range or co-morbidities it exploited. It might be that the Chinese government would have been harsher still in the lockdown and more forthcoming early on about what was happening; it might have been that the world would have buttoned up tighter more quickly (the reaction to SARS and MERS was pretty decisive). But that might be an era of international cooperation that's already past, recent as it is--maybe we would have had the same incompetence and lethal indifference and secret-keeping and right now we'd beyond any debate about opening up or the economy or whatever. There wouldn't be any uncertainty if one in every ten people were dropping dead, though there also wouldn't be any cute bullshit about sourdough starters either--the stores would have been scoured clean and everyone right now would be trying to make their dried beans stores stretch for the next six months. There wouldn't be any penny-ante would-be eugenicist scumbags talking about how it's just the nursing homes and some negroes in Georgia so go ahead and go to the beach and the hairdresser white people, it's ok to make American great again. It would be every person for himself and maybe for once owning a gun in the home would actually turn out to be a good idea.

We could take this as a lesson--a chance to be more prepared and more responsive and smarter about something more like that before it happens. A lesson about what is stalking the Anthropocene, about the microbes and toxins and fungi and pests that are adapting to an ecosystem defined by our bodies, our effluvia, our technologies, our social structures, our cognitive and moral weaknesses. Microparasites and macroparasites are infesting the host to the point of mortality, but I think we're likely to get a reprieve this time. I don't put high odds on us learning from this, but the chance is there.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on May 09, 2020, 12:46:20 AM
Some countries will learn, but likely not all. South Korea learned from MERS as the article talks about. Taiwan and Hong Kong learned from SARS. Given the global nature of this event, though, it's likely that there will be research into more general/generic coronavirus treatments and vaccines even past when the SARS-CoV-2 ones are developed. So even if some countries don't prepare for the next one as well as they should, if it's another new coronavirus that's spreading we'll likely be able to have treatments and vaccines available sooner. Similar to how some of the companies that are seemingly in the lead right for a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine are the ones that had done research into SARS or MERS vaccines before stopping that research because those epidemics died out before becoming pandemics.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on May 09, 2020, 01:18:34 AM
Another model to play with, this one modeling how mask wearing affects the spread (click on the Advanced tab near the bottom to see all the options):

masksim simulator (https://www1.icsi.berkeley.edu/~dekai/mirror/masksim/)

Watch the video at the bottom for an explanation how the model works.

tl;dw Wear a fucking mask.

Vanity Fair article on the creator De Kim and his model (https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/05/masks-covid-19-infections-would-plummet-new-study-says)

His team's non-peer reviewed paper:
Universal Masking is Urgent in the COVID-19 Pandemic: SEIR and Agent Based Models, Empirical Validation, Policy Recommendations (https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.13553.pdf)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: SurfD on May 09, 2020, 10:21:13 PM
Interesting model, but a more useful one would include some kind of slider for "mask grade".  I mean, no point in telling everybody "wearing a mask is great and cut down infections significantly" if what they are really saying is "Wearing a properly fitted N95 mask is great" while 90% of the population are wearing shitty home-make crap that is about as useful as nothing.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on May 09, 2020, 11:25:55 PM
It's in there under advanced settings. Mask transmission rate is how much is *blocked* outgoing and mask absorption rate is how much blocked incoming. I.e. you can think of the defaults of 70% as an "N70" mask. So if you wanted to simulate everybody wearing N95 masks you could bump it up to 95% (or less to account for people not wearing them properly).

Edit: here's the explanation from the above linked paper (the other parameters are explained in there as well):
Quote
Mask characteristics. Varying degrees of mask effectiveness are modelled by the mask transmission rate T and mask absorption rate A, which denote the proportion of viruses that are stopped by the mask during exhaling (transmission) versus inhaling (absorption), respectively. We set T = 0.7 and A = 0.7 to model the use of inexpensive, widely available, and even nonmedical or homemade masks with only 70% effectiveness for universal masking, and not higher quality N95, N99, N100, FFP1, FFP2, or FFP3 masks which in many regions need to be reserved for medical staff.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: SurfD on May 09, 2020, 11:29:41 PM
Ahh wow.  Completely missed the Advanced settings tab.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Samwise on May 10, 2020, 09:58:07 AM
Shitty homemade masks turned out to be the best defense against Spanish Flu a hundred years ago.  It's not about wearing one to protect yourself from being sneezed on (which does require actual medical grade PPE) so much as the massive cumulative effect of everyone wearing something over their face to prevent them from sneezing on anyone else.

(https://i.imgur.com/KbGO3DH.jpg)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on May 10, 2020, 10:20:47 AM
I see there were people back then who also weren’t covering their noses for some reason just like some of the mask wearers of today :awesome_for_real: :oh_i_see: :uhrr:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Cyrrex on May 10, 2020, 12:26:50 PM
I see there were people back then who also weren’t covering their noses for some reason just like some of the mask wearers of today :awesome_for_real: :oh_i_see: :uhrr:


I have heard it hilariously being compared to wearing underpants with your dick hanging out.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on May 10, 2020, 10:12:55 PM
...I have heard it hilariously being compared to wearing underpants with your dick hanging out.
That, sir, is just good fashion in some places.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Gimfain on May 11, 2020, 04:49:21 AM
On day 6. Yesterday I felt good (under the circumstances that is), muscles just don't recover like they should and the regular energy still isn't there but I still haven't had coughs, breathing is more like normal and lungs feel fine. Today I lost most of my taste, smell and when I tried to answer the phone I realized my voice is almost gone. I will try do stuff that makes my pulse go up a bit so i can tell how I really feel.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on May 11, 2020, 04:51:44 AM
On day 6. Yesterday I felt good (under the circumstances that is), muscles just don't recover like they should and the regular energy still isn't there but I still haven't had coughs, breathing is more like normal and lungs feel fine. Today I lost most of my taste, smell and when I tried to answer the phone I realized my voice is almost gone. I will try do stuff that makes my pulse go up a bit so i can tell how I really feel.

Get tested?


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Gimfain on May 11, 2020, 04:53:01 AM
On day 6. Yesterday I felt good (under the circumstances that is), muscles just don't recover like they should and the regular energy still isn't there but I still haven't had coughs, breathing is more like normal and lungs feel fine. Today I lost most of my taste, smell and when I tried to answer the phone I realized my voice is almost gone. I will try do stuff that makes my pulse go up a bit so i can tell how I really feel.

Get tested?
They don't do test on people that are outside vulnerable groups, don't need hospital help or handle vulnerable people. Besides, I lack a car so can't get there on my own. The rule for people like me is, stay isolated and if you start feeling bad, call for phone support, if it urgent, call 112.

For statistics they check for people needing hospital help and intensive care.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on May 11, 2020, 07:12:37 AM
Articles are a week old, I'm getting these from another forum I read, but thought they were interesting nonetheless.

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/iceland-testing-coronavirus-success

Quote
Iceland has confirmed 1,799 cases of the virus, but just 10 people have died. The number of new COVID-19 cases each day has fallen from 106 at the peak of the outbreak to single digits — even, on some days, zero.

“I didn’t expect the recovery to be this fast,” said Iceland’s chief epidemiologist, Thorolfur Gudnason.

Iceland’s success is partly testament to its tiny population — just 360,000 people. But it also reflects decisive action by authorities, who used a rigorous policy of testing and tracking to find and isolate infected people, even when they had no symptoms.

Quote
Associated Press (https://apnews.com/238af56283754cd19d1966ff1681f5ae): US to rein in flood of virus blood tests after lax oversight

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. regulators Monday pulled back a decision that allowed scores of coronavirus blood tests to hit the market without first providing proof that they worked.

The Food and Drug Administration said it took the action because some sellers have made false claims about the tests and their accuracy.

Under pressure to increase testing options, the FDA in March essentially allowed companies to begin selling tests as long as they notified the agency of their plans and provided disclaimers, including that they were not FDA approved. The policy was intended to allow “flexibility” needed to quickly ramp up production, officials said.

“However, flexibility never meant we would allow fraud,” Dr. Anand Shah, an FDA deputy commissioner, said in a statement. “We unfortunately see unscrupulous actors marketing fraudulent test kits and using the pandemic as an opportunity to take advantage of Americans.”


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tebonas on May 11, 2020, 07:20:06 AM
Companies use missing oversight to defraud customers. That really is a surprise to exactly nobody...


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on May 11, 2020, 08:29:42 AM
Who would have thought that an agency created to make sure people weren't selling literal poison to consumers as miracle cures would then be needed to regulate companies selling utter lies to people in desperate need?


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Engels on May 11, 2020, 12:05:41 PM
Why its nearly as if having a working government is a good thing.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on May 11, 2020, 07:07:00 PM
Another randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial of remdesivir, this time at ten hospitals in Wuhan, China, published in The Lancet:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31022-9/fulltext

Unfortunately the results of this trial did not show any statistically significant differences in the primary outcomes measured:
Quote
Our trial found that intravenous remdesivir did not significantly improve the time to clinical improvement, mortality, or time to clearance of virus in patients with serious COVID-19 compared with placebo.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on May 11, 2020, 09:41:02 PM
About a month ago, but if you want to get some sense of why antiviral medications are so hard to develop--and why almost all experts are pessimistic about vaccines or drug therapies: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/04/13/the-quest-for-a-pandemic-pill


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Gimfain on May 12, 2020, 06:06:34 AM
Day 7. So I suppose that was the mild version, lungs stayed intact, no crazy inflammation or anything, no horror story about lacking oxygen or other severe illness. Its weird feeling ill and you can't really point at something that is really wrong with you, regular flu or cold is really obvious but this one felt out of place. I don't want to know how it feels like when this shit hits the lungs.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on May 12, 2020, 07:17:47 AM
Day 7. So I suppose that was the mild version, lungs stayed intact, no crazy inflammation or anything, no horror story about lacking oxygen or other severe illness. Its weird feeling ill and you can't really point at something that is really wrong with you, regular flu or cold is really obvious but this one felt out of place. I don't want to know how it feels like when this shit hits the lungs.

Glad to hear that you are better. It's too bad they are not interested in testing you for purposes of contract tracing.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: 01101010 on May 12, 2020, 07:28:51 AM
Day 7. So I suppose that was the mild version, lungs stayed intact, no crazy inflammation or anything, no horror story about lacking oxygen or other severe illness. Its weird feeling ill and you can't really point at something that is really wrong with you, regular flu or cold is really obvious but this one felt out of place. I don't want to know how it feels like when this shit hits the lungs.

Get tested? Results?


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Brolan on May 12, 2020, 09:23:35 AM
From reports this thing can really turn on you about day 9.  Even if you are feeling better.  Be vigilant!


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on May 12, 2020, 10:02:05 AM
Day 7. So I suppose that was the mild version, lungs stayed intact, no crazy inflammation or anything, no horror story about lacking oxygen or other severe illness. Its weird feeling ill and you can't really point at something that is really wrong with you, regular flu or cold is really obvious but this one felt out of place. I don't want to know how it feels like when this shit hits the lungs.

You're gonna want to knock on wood over the next 72 hours.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on May 12, 2020, 03:35:13 PM
The narratives from people who have had the bad version are pretty terrifying.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on May 12, 2020, 06:58:33 PM
Meanwhile, people in my little community of 4000 people are bitching because the community pool is not open.  And it looks like it *will* open soon. South Carolina - land of denial.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on May 12, 2020, 09:40:02 PM
A pre-print (non-peer reviewed) paper was uploaded today that claims that if you take into account individual variations in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2, the percentage of people that needs to be infected (and recover or die) before the virus stops spreading is smaller than if you assume everybody has the same susceptibility and exposure chances.

Individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2 lowers the herd immunity threshold (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v2.full.pdf)

I'm still trying to understand their argument but I believe what they are claiming conceptually is that:

1. People who are susceptible to being infected will get it sooner rather than later

2. People who are "connected" will get it sooner rather than later

3. Once the above two populations have been infected and recovered (or dead) those that remain are either less likely to be infected or are essentially hiding so there's not enough less "fuel" around for the virus to keep spreading, thereby lowering the percentage of population that needs to be infected before herd immunity kicks in.

 


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: MahrinSkel on May 12, 2020, 11:25:47 PM
On it's face, it's bullshit, by their own assumptions the population of "susceptible" needs to quickly die or recover without infecting the "vulnerable". It's the "herd immunity" argument with extra pixie dust.

--Dave


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on May 12, 2020, 11:35:31 PM
that sounds like silicon valley reinventing taxis for the hundredth time

how many different ways can we describe herd immunity, as dave said


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on May 13, 2020, 01:07:43 AM
Another pre-print paper that also claims that for COVID-19 we won't need to reach the classical, vaccine-based herd immunity percentages to reach herd immunity.

The disease-induced herd immunity level for Covid-19 is substantially lower than the classical herd immunity level (https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.03085)

Their model is different than the previous one but it's also based on the assumption that the disease is spreading through a heterogeneous population rather than a homogeneous one. In this paper they group people by age and then assume each age group has a different amount of "activity"/contact. So the younger more active population is infected sooner than the younger or older less active populations which again means the herd immunity % doesn't need to be as high.

Interview with one of the authors, Tom Britton, about the paper:

Ny kalkyl: Stockholm kan nå flockimmunitet i juni (https://www.svd.se/ny-berakning-stockholm-kan-na-immunitet-i-juni) (New calculation: Stockholm can reach herd immunity in June)

It's in Swedish but Google Translate seems to do a good job translating.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Gimfain on May 13, 2020, 05:28:12 AM
Need a proper antibodies tests so that they can do proper testing to see who had it in stockholm, until then any calculation is just throwing darts at random.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on May 13, 2020, 09:54:44 AM
Yeah - when part of the assumptions are that people are hiding from the virus, it doesn't pan out. 

Go look up Spanish Flu in San Francisco. 


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on May 13, 2020, 10:48:58 AM
Yes I don’t understand the math but I assume both models are assuming people are mixing more freely than they are in stay at home conditions though it’s not clear if Sweden matches that or if they are mixing enough for either model to apply. But without enough mixing you end in a situation like South Korea right now where some “super spreaders” have been isolating and once you let them mingle again you start back up the spread of infections. So you need to get those people infected early for the overall herd immunity threshold to drop if I understand these models correctly.

Edit: iPad screw up


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Samwise on May 13, 2020, 10:50:12 AM
Yes I don’t understand the math but I assume both models are assuming people are mixing more freely than they are in stay at home conditions though it’s not clear if Sweden matches that or if they are mixing enough for either model to apply. But without enough mixing you end in a situation like South Korea where some “super spreaders” have been isolating and once you let them mingle again you sta

oh my god, Corona-chan just took Trippy out mid-post   :ye_gods:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on May 13, 2020, 10:54:49 AM
LOL


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: MahrinSkel on May 13, 2020, 11:03:37 AM
To simplify, they are saying the potential super-spreaders will catch it early, so the potential R0 will drop and the herd immunity threshold will be lower.

There may be something to that, but they are not really understanding the underlying graph theory as applied to social spaces (this is very definitely in my wheelhouse), and as a result are overstating the effect by an order of magnitude. They're saying it reduces the threshold from 80% to 30%, the reality is more like 80% to 75%.

tldr: Hyperconnected nodes are generally on the shortest arbitrary paths across a graph, but real social graphs are highly redundant. Taking out the shortest paths to infection does not remove all paths to infection.

--Dave


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on May 13, 2020, 08:24:08 PM
This sadly makes a lot of sense to me... (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/without-a-vaccine-herd-immunity-wont-save-us/amp/)  Herd immunity, per this article, is not going to help us much. 


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on May 13, 2020, 08:32:24 PM
Uh, their model, using their default values. seems to disprove their thesis. So I'm not sure what the point of including that was.

Fortunately for us non-Swedes, Sweden continues to test whether or not you can develop herd immunity to COVID-19 on a real life population (sadly for Swedes, their own), so we should know by the end of Summer whether or not that's possible, unless they give up and lock down.

Edit: clarification



Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on May 13, 2020, 08:43:06 PM
It has some problems with how it is written, but the default is meant to show how herd immunity works.  As you play with the sliders as they discuss through it, you see the problems.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on May 13, 2020, 10:40:06 PM
Yeah still don't see the problem. Increasing R0 decreases the number of days to reach herd immunity (obviously that may overwhelm hospitals but they don't model that). Shortening immunity duration by *a lot* does drag things out, potentially indefinitely, and while that is still an unknown given what we know from other coronaviruses it's probably not *that* short.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on May 14, 2020, 11:53:52 AM
Yeah still don't see the problem. Increasing R0 decreases the number of days to reach herd immunity (obviously that may overwhelm hospitals but they don't model that). Shortening immunity duration by *a lot* does drag things out, potentially indefinitely, and while that is still an unknown given what we know from other coronaviruses it's probably not *that* short.
Their fictitious disease, labeled as Fictitious, using the default sliders hits herd immunity threshold in about 50 days.  It is not a simulation of COVID 19.

They then explain herd immunity, etc....

Then they say, why is herd immunity not a good solution for COVID 19?

1.) This is a highly contagious disease.  That pushed to a higher percentage of the population needing to get it before there is a chance of herd immunity - and that chance is contingent (see below).
2.) We don't know the extent to which antibodies help us.  So far, the reports of reinfection seem to be situations in which the original infection has not left the body and the positive tests down the road after being free of symptoms may be evidence of resurgence, not reinfection.  However, we do not know how quickly this RNA virus will mutate.  We do not know if our bodies complete kill off the virus in our bodies.  And we do not know if the virus is being killed off enough to keep us from getting symptoms again, but is leaving us capable of transmission (or, at least, leaving a percentage of the population).  The scariest version of this concern would be for our immunity to wear off before we reach herd immunity.  That is unlikely in this case given the rate this thing spreads... unless we're prolonging the spread by flattening the curve.  A lot is unknown here, although there is reason to be positive that this is going to be something where getting it once gives you protection for a while from being sick again.
3.) Finally - due to the highly contagious nature of this bug, the amount of people needed to reach herd immunity is high.  Assuming we get there before people lose their protection from transmission / getting symptoms, we'll have essentially the entire population have it.  As there is little we can do for the people that get it and get very sick, that could mean millions die in the US over a few cycles.

And when you factor in that the high estimate for percentage of population infected based upon studies in NY, a hotspot, is 21% and the herd immunity requirement is likely between 70 and 90%...  We are going to have more rounds until an effective vaccine is distributed enough to push us across the herd immunity threshold.

If you play with the sliders, their model says that we'd only be in a danger of perpetual infection (where we lose immunity before the virus disappears) if we lost immunity over a 3 or 4 month period.  However, this does not factor in the nuances of the virus resurfacing.  For example, if we lose immunity after a year, and there are people that sneezed on a frozen package and open it a year later, and get just enough virus and bad luck combined, we could have a new patient zero and no immunity in the general population.

So herd immunity is unlikely to help us much because most people will get sick before the virus burns itself out - and there is a chance it could fail to eradicate the virus entirely for several reasons and that we could lose immunity before it resurfaces.

The final lines:
Quote
So let’s go back to that 70 percent herd immunity threshold. If the fatality rate is around 0.5 percent and 70 percent of Americans have to get sick before their immunity starts protecting others, that means more than 1.1 million people would die. In New York, even having 21 percent of the population exposed, if that serological survey is accurate, has overrun hospitals and led to the death of one in every 400 New Yorkers, while the vast majority of the population remains susceptible.

“That’s the cost of getting to 20 percent,” said Emma Hodcroft, a postdoctoral epidemiology researcher at the University of Basel in Switzerland. “It really illustrates the price you’re going to pay if you want to get up to the 60 percent or 70 percent that you’ll need for herd immunity, and I hope it really illustrates why that just isn’t a feasible plan.”


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on May 14, 2020, 12:15:31 PM
Like I said their model, unlike some others, doesn't include hospital capacity, so again it's pointless to include the model if they are using the danger of running out of hospital capacity as part of their argument about why trying to achieve herd immunity is bad thing. Also saying we can't achieve herd immunity because the death toll would be too high is also different than what their title implies which is that herd immunity is not possible to achieve at all.

I'm not necessarily disagreeing with their conclusion trying to achieve herd immunity here in the US is not going to fly or their methodology -- I did the exact same modeling over in the Politics version of this thread:

http://forums.f13.net/index.php?topic=26152.msg1539496#msg1539496
http://forums.f13.net/index.php?topic=26152.msg1539499#msg1539499
http://forums.f13.net/index.php?topic=26152.msg1540000#msg1540000

I'm just saying it's very poorly argued, especially by throwing in that model.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on May 15, 2020, 10:18:38 PM
Anyone heard from Grimfain? He was right at the point this thing can turn on you, and he hasn't posted to say he is ok.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on May 15, 2020, 10:38:35 PM
He's been reading the forums today.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Gimfain on May 15, 2020, 11:22:43 PM
I was just waiting for my body to go back to normal and thought of things I normally do after being hit by a regular flu or common cold and make sure to not do that stupid shit this time. My voice, sense of taste and smell is slowly recovering.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Fraeg on May 16, 2020, 01:37:08 AM
I was just waiting for my body to go back to normal and thought of things I normally do after being hit by a regular flu or common cold and make sure to not do that stupid shit this time. My voice, sense of taste and smell is slowly recovering.

Your sense of smell is coming back?  Nurse friend is 6 weeks on recovery and still zero sense of smell.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on May 16, 2020, 07:15:06 PM
NY started the phase 1 of reopen yesterday.

People have lost their minds, it seems like the popular opinion is that all restrictions are lifted and people are throwing parties everywhere.

This will go well. We're phase 3 or 4, so I expect to get back to working from the office in about 3 years.  :oh_i_see:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on May 16, 2020, 07:36:09 PM
I was just waiting for my body to go back to normal and thought of things I normally do after being hit by a regular flu or common cold and make sure to not do that stupid shit this time. My voice, sense of taste and smell is slowly recovering.

Good to hear it. Hopefully you will have some immunity after all this.

Ireland is starting "phase 1" lifting of restrictions on monday. I fully expect Pubs to open (which should be happening stage 4) and be having parties and me sidestepping vomit Tuesday morning. People are stupid.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on May 16, 2020, 07:57:42 PM
The consistency of odd symptoms like the loss of taste/smell really worries me about this disease--I have a really bad feeling it's doing things nobody fully understands and that the third act of this play is going to be about grim chronic afteraffects. It's very clearly not an ordinary respiratory disease, not even on the model of SARS or MERS.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on May 16, 2020, 11:45:21 PM
Last week researchers in England (pre)-released the largest study to date examining risk factors in COVID-19 deaths using UK NHS health data.

Press release (https://opensafely.org/press-releases/2020/05/covid-risk-factors/) bullet points:

  • Largest study to date, analysing NHS health data from 17.4 million UK adults between 01 February 2020 and 25 April 2020, has given the strongest evidence to date on risk factors associated with COVID-19 death.
  • Among the 17.4 million adults in the sample, there were 5,707 deaths in hospitals attributed to COVID-19.
  • People of Asian and Black ethnic backgrounds are at a higher risk of death and, contrary to prior speculation, this is only partially attributable to pre-existing clinical risk factors or deprivation.
  • Key factors related to COVID-19 death included being male, older age, uncontrolled diabetes and severe asthma.
    A deprived background was also found to be a major risk factor: this was also only partially attributable to other clinical risk factors.

Preprint (non-peer reviewed) paper: OpenSAFELY: factors associated with COVID-19-related hospital death in the linked electronic health records of 17 million adult NHS patients. (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.06.20092999v1)

"Deprived" is this case means lower-income as measured/classified by patients' postcodes. Every patient, based on their postcode, was classified between 1 and 5 with 1 being highest-income / "least deprived" and 5 being lowest-income / "most deprived".

Fatality risk in the paper is reported using "hazard ratios" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hazard_ratio) or HR. So 1.0 means baseline / reference risk, 2.0 would be double the reference risk, 0.5 half the reference risk, etc. E.g. for risk by gender, female is set at 1.0 and male has an adjusted risk of 1.99 in this study. So men have double the risk of dying from COVID-19 than women, at least in the UK according to the study.

One weakness of this study to me is that, as far as I can tell, it doesn't include SARS-CoV-2 infection risk factors like occupation in the data analysis. E.g. in a country like the UK with shelter in place orders "essential workers" are presumably at higher risk for infection than non-essential workers. And any risk factors that are more common in people with those types of jobs would likely increase the HR of those risk factors.

Most of the risks identified in this study have been reported in other studies with a few notable exceptions:

  • Hypertension is a slightly lower risk, fully adjusted (0.95) compared to Normal blood pressure (1.0).
  • Current smokers have lower risk, fully adjusted (0.88) compared to those that have never smoked (1.0). Ex-smokers have slightly higher risk (1.25).
  • The aforementioned increased risk for lower-income patients (a risk factor that usually isn't examined in other studies)
  • The significantly higher risk for Asians and Blacks, even after being fully adjusted (Asian 1.62, Black 1.71).

Hypertension is often reported as a comorbidity in other studies but there's been disagreement whether or not it is an independent risk factor because, for example, in places with less-than-ideal diets (which is pretty much all of the industrial world), increased age in linked to increased blood pressure. So if you don't take that association into account you may get misleading results. E.g. this editorial in the American Journal of Hypertension (https://academic.oup.com/ajh/article/33/5/373/5816609) calls into question whether or not hypertension and the medications commonly associated with its treatment are risk factors.

The smoking result is interesting. There's been conflicting data on whether or not smoking is a risk factor. A small meta-analysis of five early studies in China (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7083240/) concluded that, "smoking is most likely associated with the negative progression and adverse outcomes of COVID-19". However they weaken their own conclusion by also admitting a limited amount of data and "the above results are unadjusted for other factors that may impact disease progression". A much larger more recent meta-analysis of 19 papers (https://academic.oup.com/ntr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/ntr/ntaa082/5835834) concluded smoking is a risk factor for progression of COVID-19. Note that neither meta-analysis attempted to calculate the fatality HR like the UK study did.

The race results in the UK study, while adjusted for the other risk factors included in the study like income, does not appear to take occupation into account like I mentioned above. Looking at the UK ethnicity data by sector (https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/work-pay-and-benefits/employment/employment-by-sector/latest) we see that Asians are disproportionately employed in the "Distribution, hotels and restaurants" and "Transport and communication" sectors (unfortunately this site rolls up multiple sectors into one category in many cases) compared to Whites. And Blacks are disproportionately employed in the "Public admin, education and health" sectors compared to Whites. So if any of those sectors employ a disproportionate number of "essential workers" that could account for at least some of the higher HR for those races.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: NowhereMan on May 17, 2020, 11:20:18 AM
The consistency of odd symptoms like the loss of taste/smell really worries me about this disease--I have a really bad feeling it's doing things nobody fully understands and that the third act of this play is going to be about grim chronic afteraffects. It's very clearly not an ordinary respiratory disease, not even on the model of SARS or MERS.


Obviously totally anecdote rather than data but my experience of (almost certainly) this thing was totally not a respiratory type infection. I basically had fever, tiredness for a day or so and total loss of my sense of smell but no cough or breathing issues. My fiancee didn't even have fever, basically just felt shitty and sore for a couple of days and then lost her sense of smell. She had actually been symptomatic and over the weekend when we went for a hike and visited a friend of mine (!) but assumed it was general soreness from the gym or something (I would say she's the fucking worst public health professional if the head of the Imperial college research unit hadn't gotten caught breaking lockdown to go shag his mistress).

Between the symptoms and the studies suggesting it might actually function by binding to haemoglobin in red blood cells, I think it's quite likely this is actually a very different kind of disease to what we are used to with influenza and other coronaviruses but there isn't a lot of point worrying about long term effects just because we have no fucking idea.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on May 17, 2020, 04:13:16 PM
The consistency of odd symptoms like the loss of taste/smell really worries me about this disease--I have a really bad feeling it's doing things nobody fully understands and that the third act of this play is going to be about grim chronic afteraffects. It's very clearly not an ordinary respiratory disease, not even on the model of SARS or MERS.
That is pessimistic, but fortunately no hints of that being true. 

One of the struggles I'm having is not assuming the absolute worst.  I mean, there is plenty of shit that is the worst, with so many people ignoring the reality that this thing is out there.  I expect to see slow building of numbers as a percentage of the population, at least, is trying to limit the spread - but we will see some areas explode.

The consistency of odd symptoms like the loss of taste/smell really worries me about this disease--I have a really bad feeling it's doing things nobody fully understands and that the third act of this play is going to be about grim chronic afteraffects. It's very clearly not an ordinary respiratory disease, not even on the model of SARS or MERS.

Obviously totally anecdote rather than data but my experience of (almost certainly) this thing was totally not a respiratory type infection...
This is not the only bug out there and it has a lot of overlap with other bugs.  As this thing manifests differently in different people, it is hard to guess whether you had it or something else unless you get a test.  A lot of us have had some form of health issues in the past few months and thought we had it.  My wife and both kids had fevers, off and on, over the past few weeks.  Could have been the virus, but very likely something else. 


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on May 17, 2020, 04:46:40 PM
The consistency of odd symptoms like the loss of taste/smell really worries me about this disease--I have a really bad feeling it's doing things nobody fully understands and that the third act of this play is going to be about grim chronic afteraffects. It's very clearly not an ordinary respiratory disease, not even on the model of SARS or MERS.
This Science article covers much/most of what we know so far about how SARS-CoV-2 affects the body (though not necessarily why yet):

Science: How does coronavirus kill? Clinicians trace a ferocious rampage through the body, from brain to toes (https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/how-does-coronavirus-kill-clinicians-trace-ferocious-rampage-through-body-brain-toes)

As for the loss of smell we actually have a pretty good idea why that's happening now. SARS-CoV-2 invades our cells via our ACE2 cell receptors in the presence of the enzyme TMPRSS2 (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0092867420302294). Researchers have also recently shown that tissues in the nose are particularly rich with this combination of proteins (https://arxiv.org/abs/2003.06122). This includes the olfactory epithelium in the roof of the nose which contain the neurons which trigger our sense of smell. So if the virus gets in those cells and starts to replicate it's likely interfering with those cells ability to send the signals back up to the brain that we sense as smells.

Edit: some more info about what may be happening in our noses:

Neurology Today: Loss of Smell as an Early Symptom of COVID-19: What Research Is Uncovering (https://journals.lww.com/neurotodayonline/blog/breakingnews/pages/post.aspx?PostID=928)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Mandella on May 18, 2020, 03:21:44 PM


This is not the only bug out there and it has a lot of overlap with other bugs.  As this thing manifests differently in different people, it is hard to guess whether you had it or something else unless you get a test.  A lot of us have had some form of health issues in the past few months and thought we had it.  My wife and both kids had fevers, off and on, over the past few weeks.  Could have been the virus, but very likely something else. 

That reminded me that I don't think I checked back in with the antibody test results I mentioned earlier. Both the results from my wife and my friend (who was absolutely certain he had it) were negative. Now I know that the tests are not conclusive (and said friend makes that point every time it comes up), but it strikes me that going to the trouble and expense of getting a test and not going forward accepting the results of that test doesn't make a lot of sense.

So I'm assuming that I haven't had it, and plan to keep up good sanitary practices (distance, washing, masks, and constant sanitizing) going until I get it or get a vaccine.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on May 18, 2020, 03:23:52 PM
If your wife didn't have it, you probably don't. But I'm sure you already know that.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on May 18, 2020, 08:16:47 PM
If you or someone you know tests positive and gets through it - do not assume you're immune.  It is likely that your antibodies will protect you, but that is not a lock, yet.  We don't know what percentage of people are protected by antibodies, and we don't know how long that protection will last.  Better safe than the fucking idiots I see every fucking day.  Those fuckers keep it up, and they'll realize how deadly this fucking virus is because I'll fucking k... Ahem. 

I appreciate the intelligence on these boards as I see people getting informed.  Understanding how it transfers (as much as we can), what it does to the body and how tp play it safe are things that way too many people can't seem to fathom.

Are people watching South Korea and China?  They are telling thousands of people to get tested based on cell phone location data if they were near a pocket - and they're still seeing resurgence in the reopening economy.  We're still having trouble getting tested if we think we're sick and we're practically fucking each other on the streets already.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on May 18, 2020, 11:30:42 PM
i mean china is just megafucked regardless, so it's kind of moot in regards to how they handle it


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on May 19, 2020, 07:42:05 AM
There was still a flu strain around this winter, and people as usual got it--and almost everyone who did thinks they had covid-19 instead.

As my neighbor pointed out, you could get something like Lyme disease this spring and think it was covid unless you got lucky and spotted the bullseye rash, which doesn't always appear. Etc.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Mandella on May 19, 2020, 07:00:11 PM
There was still a flu strain around this winter, and people as usual got it--and almost everyone who did thinks they had covid-19 instead.

As my neighbor pointed out, you could get something like Lyme disease this spring and think it was covid unless you got lucky and spotted the bullseye rash, which doesn't always appear. Etc.


I do know a smattering of folks that did test positive, but they were all from mid Feb at the earliest. It does look like late January flu was, indeed, just the flu.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on May 19, 2020, 07:18:39 PM
Nobody remembers all the tables comparing allergies, the flu and COVID - do they?


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tale on May 19, 2020, 08:50:39 PM
If you or someone you know tests positive and gets through it - do not assume you're immune.  It is likely that your antibodies will protect you, but that is not a lock, yet.  We don't know what percentage of people are protected by antibodies, and we don't know how long that protection will last.

Yep, also you can be just fucking lucky.

On page 1 of this thread, my parents (in their late 70s) were quarantined after spending several hours with an infected friend on March 9. A few days later, the friend was admitted to hospital, and died the next week.

My father sat next to the person at lunch. The person gave my mother a lottery ticket in an envelope, which she took home. When the person's Covid-19 was diagnosed, my parents were quarantined for 2 weeks back in mid-March, swabbed and tested negative. Last week (mid-May) my father developed a cough that alarmed his doctor, but tested negative again.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on May 19, 2020, 11:59:47 PM
well, blood test done, now we wait

til friday

fingers crossed I didn't spend 5 weeks coughing for no reason whatsoever


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: MrHat on May 20, 2020, 08:48:04 AM
well, blood test done, now we wait

til friday

fingers crossed I didn't spend 5 weeks coughing for no reason whatsoever


Maybe you're allergic to sourdough starter.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on May 20, 2020, 10:19:30 AM
well, blood test done, now we wait

til friday

fingers crossed I didn't spend 5 weeks coughing for no reason whatsoever


Maybe you're allergic to sourdough starter.
i'd be fucking dead then


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on May 21, 2020, 07:38:52 AM
The CDC has clarified how easily the virus spreads on surfaces.  Nice to see some more good news.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/05/20/coronavirus-does-not-spread-easily-surfaces-objects-cdc/5232748002/


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on May 21, 2020, 08:21:57 AM
There is absolutely no news here.  We've been told for two months: Use proper precautions and your risk of being infected by surfaces is low.  That is the same thing they're saying now - just with different wording. 

Journalists see those guidelines and report:
Quote
The virus does not spread easily in other ways

COVID-19 is a new disease and we are still learning about how it spreads. It may be possible for COVID-19 to spread in other ways, but these are not thought to be the main ways the virus spreads.

From touching surfaces or objects. It may be possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes. This is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads, but we are still learning more about this virus.
And ignore:
Quote
The virus spreads easily between people

How easily a virus spreads from person-to-person can vary. Some viruses are highly contagious, like measles, while other viruses do not spread as easily. Another factor is whether the spread is sustained, which means it goes from person-to-person without stopping.

The virus that causes COVID-19 is spreading very easily and sustainably between people. Information from the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic suggest that this virus is spreading more efficiently than influenza, but not as efficiently as measles, which is highly contagious.

If you read them together, it actually says 'Hey, Fuckheads.  Stop hanging out together.  This shit transmits easily from person to person.  The only reason people are getting sick is because you assholes can't follow social distancing.  The new cases you see are generally not because someone touched a doorknob or received a package from Amazon.  Well, the fuckheads that take no precautions could get sick that way (if not already getting sick by being close to the people that infected the object), but seriously - know the fuck off with your hanging out together and we'll knock this virus down a lot and give ourselves a chance to get a vaccine before we hit herd immunity the hard way. Just use sensible precautions when you're handling shit and you'll be fine.'


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on May 21, 2020, 10:00:22 AM
Looking at that, wouldn't it be a good idea to test whether if you inject yourself with bleach or shove a UV light up your ass, would that cure the corona?

Just referencing an occasion where corona spread on surfaces may have been mentioned.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on May 21, 2020, 10:25:55 AM
Looking at that, wouldn't it be a good idea to test whether if you inject yourself with bleach or shove a UV light up your ass, would that cure the corona?...
(shhhh… you'll ruin the chances of convincing our special friends that glow in the dark condoms are UV emitters…)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on May 21, 2020, 02:24:52 PM
A pre-print study estimating global COVID-19 IFR by estimating country IFR values based on their CFR and testing rate / sample prevalence was released a few days ago. The authors' maths and number crunching results in a global IFR of 1.04%, with the 95% Confidence Interval range being 0.77% to 1.38%. If I understand their methodology correctly, what they are claiming is essentially as more of a population is tested over time (testing rate / sample prevalence) a country's CFR will converge on its IFR so we can look at the CFRs and testing rates among different countries, which currently vary widely, and estimate what value(s) is being converged on across all of them.

Estimating the Global Infection Fatality Rate of COVID-19 (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.11.20098780v1)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on May 21, 2020, 02:43:19 PM
And another pre-print study using a similar concept as the one above, but looking just at the US data, where if you extrapolate out declining CFRs over time you end up with the "IFR-S" (IFR for symptomatic people).

Estimating The Infection Fatality Rate Among Symptomatic COVID-19 Cases In The United States (https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/full/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00455)
Quote
Using data through April 20, 2020, we fit a statistical model to COVID-19 case fatality rates over time at the US county level to estimate the COVID-19 IFR among symptomatic cases (IFR-S) as time goes to infinity. The IFR-S in the US was estimated to be 1.3% (95% central credible interval: 0.6% to 2.1%).
IFR-S will be greater than IFR cause it's not including all the asymptomatic people. The author estimates IFR to about 20% lower than IFR-S based on the data from the Diamond Princess outbreak.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: SurfD on May 21, 2020, 04:38:47 PM
For "how fucked are we" comparison sake, How does an IFR-S of 1.3% for Corona stack up vs something like the standard Flu?


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: MahrinSkel on May 21, 2020, 04:53:28 PM
For "how fucked are we" comparison sake, How does an IFR-S of 1.3% for Corona stack up vs something like the standard Flu?
Flu is 0.1%, so X13. In the article, they do the calculations for COVID hitting as many people in the US as the flu. 33.5 M X 1.3% = 435,500.

That's kinda a best-case scenario, since the flu is constrained by both collateral immunity from closely related strains and extensive immunization campaigns. None of the normally extant coronaviruses that cause things like colds are closely related to SARS-COV2.

You can run it backwards to get an estimate of how many people have actually had it, 93,533 / 0.013 = 7,194,846 (compared to the official case count of 1,570,583).

--Dave


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on May 21, 2020, 05:03:07 PM
The figure that's most widely quoted for the IFR of regular influenza is 0.1% like Dave posted above.

However, in the US, at least, annual flu death numbers are *estimated*, not directly counted, and the reported estimated deaths are inflated significantly by the CDC to account for cases that aren't counted by traditional means. I can't find where I read this at the moment (I'll add to the list below when I do*) but one thing I saw suggested the CDC *way* overestimates the number as a way to encourage people to get a flu shot. So it's likely that at least in the US that actual influenza IFR is significantly lower than 0.1% which makes SARS-CoV-2 even more deadly in comparison.

JAMA: Assessment of Deaths From COVID-19 and From Seasonal Influenza (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2766121)

Scientific American: Comparing COVID-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is like Comparing Apples to Oranges (https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/comparing-covid-19-deaths-to-flu-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/)

* Edit: it's commentary from one of the authors of the JAMA article linked above made to Medscape Medical News which requires a (free) log in view:

Medscape: Comparing COVID-19, Flu Death Tolls 'Extremely Dangerous' (https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/930514) (log in required to view)
Quote
"It's apparent [the CDC has] been overestimating," Faust said. "If you publish a number on the higher end of the estimate, people might take your public health messages more seriously, such as, it's important to get your yearly flu shot."


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Salamok on May 22, 2020, 12:17:37 PM
JAMA: Assessment of Deaths From COVID-19 and From Seasonal Influenza (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2766121)


With their very first sentance of the first article they are already getting bendy with the truth.

"As of early May 2020, approximately 65 000 people in the US had died of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19),1"

Then you see via the footnote showing the data is from April 28th.  And if the number was 65k on April 28th then in the last 25 days or so we have seen nearly a 45% increase, camparing it to a years worth of Flu deaths while ignoring that sort of progression is beyond reaching for a conclusion to support some wishful point.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: RhyssaFireheart on May 22, 2020, 12:34:34 PM
So I just found out that I get to have a C-19 screening to prepare for my upcoming medical procedure on 19-June (yay, for avoiding a colonoscopy for this long). Which considering I can count the number of times I've interacted with someone other than my husband on one hand, I certainly hope I don't have it.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Mandella on May 22, 2020, 12:41:01 PM
Silver linings dept: Except for allergies, this has been the most healthy spring in my memory for both me and the wife. No spring colds, stomach flues, or other contagious crap. It really looks like all these masks and plastic spit guards and hand washing and social distancing might be making a difference in just the regular stuff.

On the other hand, now I'm worried that we're losing overall immune system health, since that does need to be exercised by exposure...


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on May 22, 2020, 02:08:25 PM
Silver linings dept: Except for allergies, this has been the most healthy spring in my memory for both me and the wife. No spring colds, stomach flues, or other contagious crap. It really looks like all these masks and plastic spit guards and hand washing and social distancing might be making a difference in just the regular stuff.

On the other hand, now I'm worried that we're losing overall immune system health, since that does need to be exercised by exposure...
I have a pretty healthy immune system, even before I spent the last 20 years working directly with the public at the library. The health factor I've noticed improved significantly? My sinuses have been clear for the entire lockdown. I normally wear breathing strips and have constant stuffiness and have been certain for years it was due to the shitty air in our office.

Goes back to my dislike of engineers. Engineer told our maintenance guy that the HVAC we installed years ago supplied fresh air to all spaces. We have a ceiling unit in our office and all the windows are sealed. The maintenance guy never cleans the filter. I wonder why I have respiratory issues in a closed office with no airflow and a dirty HVAC filter that just keeps recycling the same air all day.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on May 22, 2020, 09:19:48 PM
It's real clarifying about where your colds and minor illnesses come from.

I don't know if there's any research on this, but I genuinely doubt that an immune system that's trained on normal volumes of social interaction loses its 'training' in a single period of six months or so. It's clear that there's always a vulnerability to novel social interaction--it's why people get so sick when their toddlers first go to school (interaction with a novel population of adults--not just the families of the other children but all the people those families interact with) and why they are prone to get sick when travelling far away, but I think in your own social worlds, your immune system's training has to be pretty vigorous even when there's some months of  relative isolation.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on May 23, 2020, 12:28:45 PM
My favorite local restaurant is reopening. They sent a nice email about all the stuff they're doing, 'industry-leading' methods, like distancing the tables.

All I can see is that infographic about the guy sitting by the AC that infected half the entire room.

I continue to be a harbinger of we're all fucked on this one.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on May 23, 2020, 02:35:50 PM
We're most of us fucked. Business owners, especially larger corporations or smaller, less scrupulous ones will make a whole lot of noise about how they are looking out for their customers but push comes to shove, they won't bother.

More worrisome are the fact that the average mouth-breathing fucktard out there sees their leaders telling them to reopen to save the economy and automatically think everything is safe. See the crowds of jackwagons out and about in Wisconsin and Ohio, assholes to elbows in bars and restaurants without a mask among them, loudly celebrating the return of their "FREEDOM!"


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on May 23, 2020, 05:12:47 PM
3 houses with north of 6 cars parked in the road each (plus driveways packed) ON THIS BLOCK for bbqs today. Got an invite from my redneck buddies across the way for a brisket bbq tomorrow. It's over, right guys?

The fiancee and I are going to take her mom to her family's abandoned graveyard on the Tug Hill, far from any humans. Win.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Fabricated on May 23, 2020, 06:56:29 PM
Yeah, there's a nice chunk of the population that has basically declared this over. Whee.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on May 23, 2020, 07:13:59 PM
Went to pick up a pizza, there are parties all over the city right now. Neat.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on May 23, 2020, 07:51:10 PM

Quote
BBC News (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-52769919): Coronavirus: Yemen's healthcare system 'in effect collapsed'

War-torn Yemen's healthcare system has "in effect collapsed" and coronavirus is spreading across the country, the United Nations has warned.

Jens Laerke, spokesman for the UN Office for the Co-ordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), described the situation as "extremely alarming".

He said people were being turned away from treatment centres partly because staff lacked protective equipment.

The Yemeni authorities have confirmed scores of infections, and 30 deaths.

But the UN says the real figures are almost certainly much higher.

The country's health system has been damaged by years of civil war and ventilators are in short supply.

Damn.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on May 23, 2020, 10:55:02 PM
So I don't want to understate the gravity of that report, but this is where we are maybe drifting into coronavirus tunnel-vision.

Yemen hasn't had a functioning health system throughout this entire war. That's why Saudi Arabia's bombing (with US support) has been so destructive--there is literally no humanitarian capacity on the ground but what NGOs provide.

Coronavirus is bad, but even at its worst, it's only a modest extra dose of misery on top of an already ghastly, miserable situation.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on May 23, 2020, 11:32:12 PM
It likely wasn't the 'rona that tipped Yemen over the edge. It just swamped a pre-broken system.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on May 24, 2020, 12:35:40 AM
I'm curious how many wealthy types are planning to isolate for the next 3 months while encouraging as many idiots as possible to get sick to limit the risk to their wealthy families down the road. 



Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on May 24, 2020, 02:10:55 AM
Placebo-controlled trial of remdesivir has shown a modest benefit. Trial is sponsored by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the National Institutes of Health.

Summary: median recovery time for those receiving drug was 11 days vs 15 days on placebo. Lower mortality rate was reported as well for remdesivir group but apparently that was not statistically significant. As is now typical regarding SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 studies these results haven't been peer-reviewed yet.

NIAID annoncement:
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/news-events/nih-clinical-trial-shows-remdesivir-accelerates-recovery-advanced-covid-19

New York Times article:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/29/health/gilead-remdesivir-coronavirus.html
Peer-reviewed version (which includes confidence intervals) is up now:

The New England Journal of Medicine: Remdesivir for the Treatment of Covid-19 — Preliminary Report (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2007764)

Some analysis of this version:

STAT (Boston Globe): Covid-19 study details benefits of treatment with remdesivir, and also its limitations (https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/22/covid-19-study-details-benefits-of-treatment-with-remdesivir-and-also-its-limitations/)

MedPage Today: Remdesivir Data from NIAID Trial Published — "Not a panacea" or a "cure-all," expert cautions (https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/86670)

tl;dr Remdesivir worked best on the less severe patients. Those on high-flow oxygen, non-invasive mechanical ventilation, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) or invasive mechanical ventilation did only slightly better or slightly worse than the placebo group (see figure 2 in study). I.e. once the virus has established itself the anti-viral properties of remdesivir likely didn't show any reduced mortality since it's now the body's own immune system that's causing the most problems. There's also been criticism that the study criteria changed part way through and was also ended prematurely because the benefit was deemed significant enough that treatment should not be withheld from placebo subjects.

STAT: Inside the NIH’s controversial decision to stop its big remdesivir study (https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/11/inside-the-nihs-controversial-decision-to-stop-its-big-remdesivir-study/)

In more severe cases remdesivir will likely need to be combined with other drugs like anti-inflammatories to show a benefit. There's a double blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial starting that combines remdesivir with the anti-inflammatory drug baricitinib to see if baricitinib combined with remdesivir works better than remdesivir alone (the placebo).

NIH Clinical Trial Testing Antiviral Remdesivir Plus Anti-Inflammatory Drug Baricitinib for COVID-19 Begins (https://www.niaid.nih.gov/news-events/nih-clinical-trial-testing-antiviral-remdesivir-plus-anti-inflammatory-drug-baricitinib)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on May 24, 2020, 02:25:08 AM
More bad new for hydroxychloroquine. In the largest observational study to date hydroxychloroquine with or without a macrolide antibiotic like azithromycin showed increased mortality rates compared to the placebo group.

The Lancet: Hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine with or without a macrolide for treatment of COVID-19: a multinational registry analysis (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31180-6/fulltext)

Study Analysis:

STAT: What a big new study on malaria drugs as Covid-19 treatments tells us — and what it doesn’t (https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/22/what-a-big-new-study-on-malaria-drugs-as-covid-19-treatments-tells-us-and-what-it-doesnt/)
Quote
“It’s a very striking finding and it’s convincing to me,” said Steven Nissen, a cardiologist at the Cleveland Clinic. “Based upon these findings and others, no one should take hydroxychloroquine with or without an antibiotic unless they are in a randomized controlled trial. It should not be used in the general population to prevent or to treat Covid-19 infection.”

Eric Topol, director and founder of the Scripps Research Translational Institute and a cardiologist, noted the risk in a series of tweets. “It’s no longer that hydroxychloroquine has no sign of efficacy,” he wrote, “it is associated with an increase in mortality.”


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on May 24, 2020, 02:31:20 AM
Reuters Exclusive: U.S. plans massive coronavirus vaccine testing effort to meet year-end deadline (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-vaccine-exclus/exclusive-u-s-plans-massive-coronavirus-vaccine-testing-effort-to-meet-year-end-deadline-idUSKBN22Y2L3)
Quote
CHICAGO (Reuters) - The United States plans a massive testing effort involving more than 100,000 volunteers and a half dozen or so of the most promising vaccine candidates in an effort to deliver a safe and effective one by the end of 2020, scientists leading the program told Reuters.

The project will compress what is typically 10 years of vaccine development and testing into a matter of months, testimony to the urgency to halt a pandemic that has infected more than 5 million people, killed over 335,000 and battered economies worldwide.

[...]

Candidates that demonstrate safety in small early studies will be tested in huge trials of 20,000 to 30,000 subjects for each vaccine, slated to start in July.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: SurfD on May 24, 2020, 02:35:21 AM
Yeah, cause there isn't a hundred and one ways the Trump admin could possibly fuck something like that up.   If we are lucky, it will only be a small clusterfuck, but there is ample opportunity for it to turn into an epic shitshow as election day approaches and Trump gets more desperate for literally anything to throw to the masses.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on May 24, 2020, 09:25:46 AM
cool, that's a terrible idea i can't wait


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on May 24, 2020, 12:01:52 PM
I always wondered how we'd find a way to create the Rage Virus in real life. Now I know.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Cyrrex on May 24, 2020, 12:08:32 PM
You gotta figure that if they get 100,000 volunteers, almost all of them will be MAGAs.  I think it is a great plan.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on May 24, 2020, 02:28:34 PM
You gotta figure that if they get 100,000 volunteers, almost all of them will be MAGAs.  I think it is a great plan.
I don't see why. Most of them don't think the virus is a big deal. 


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Gimfain on May 24, 2020, 02:49:07 PM
What you have to ask yourself is if you find it acceptable the potential harm caused by advancing potential vaccines in this way or if you want to do the traditional way that will cause 10 to 50 million people world wide to die from covid-19 before we have a vaccine in 2030. The mass vaccination for the swine flu did cause a few people to have horrible side effects but it also prevented far more people from dying. When the safe route cause so much death you have to be willing to look for short cuts.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Reg on May 24, 2020, 02:55:09 PM
There's no way I'm using a vaccine that's been rushed out the door by a pharmaceutical company desperate for the money they gain from being first to market when the FDA has been forced to approve it by a corrupt head of state.

I'll wait for Health Canada to let me know if it's safe, thanks.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on May 24, 2020, 03:05:43 PM
What you have to ask yourself is if you find it acceptable the potential harm caused by advancing potential vaccines in this way or if you want to do the traditional way that will cause 10 to 50 million people world wide to die from covid-19 before we have a vaccine in 2030. The mass vaccination for the swine flu did cause a few people to have horrible side effects but it also prevented far more people from dying. When the safe route cause so much death you have to be willing to look for short cuts.
If the thing sterilizes everyone that takes it after 5 years, it'd be a massive world changing horror. There is a reason for those long development cycles.   


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on May 24, 2020, 03:31:13 PM
What you have to ask yourself is if you find it acceptable the potential harm caused by advancing potential vaccines in this way or if you want to do the traditional way that will cause 10 to 50 million people world wide to die from covid-19 before we have a vaccine in 2030. The mass vaccination for the swine flu did cause a few people to have horrible side effects but it also prevented far more people from dying. When the safe route cause so much death you have to be willing to look for short cuts.
If the thing sterilizes everyone that takes it after 5 years, it'd be a massive world changing horror. There is a reason for those long development cycles.   

World improving horror

Pick something better than that, like everyone with an IQ over 80 gets brain cancer and dies


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: MahrinSkel on May 24, 2020, 03:35:48 PM
You know they're going to want to push something out before November. That means there is no long-term test group, and a lot of these are using technology that has never been used for humans. Some of them need all new distribution protocols.

It is not possible to put out a vaccine that quickly and know it is safe. It's barely possible to put it out with any confidence it even works.

--Dave


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on May 24, 2020, 03:55:02 PM
I'm sure that third eye that grows on my ass cheek and also speaks in tongues will be totally safe and not in any way life-changing.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on May 24, 2020, 04:07:55 PM
I'm sure that third eye that grows on my ass cheek and also speaks in tongues will be totally safe and not in any way life-changing.
Well, if it were a long tongue it certainly would be life-changing.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on May 24, 2020, 07:41:17 PM
What are you talking about? You can trust Grandfather Nurgle's guaranteed Vaccine.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on May 24, 2020, 11:06:29 PM
You gotta figure that if they get 100,000 volunteers, almost all of them will be MAGAs.  I think it is a great plan.
I don't see why. Most of them don't think the virus is a big deal.  
Was over at the neighbor's for a beer (me sitting away from the cluster of drunks). Had to leave once it got to 'it's all fake so Biden can win' 'my friend is a nurse who risked her license to say they are just letting people die in rooms to inflate the numbers' and 'we can't let communism win, goddamned socialists.'

I did point out that the guy in mid-rant was a government employee home on disability and his cheerleader has been home since November on unemployment and bitching that they were cutting him off.

These fucking people, man. I've never wanted so badly to not live in this country.

edited to add: and remember, I live in NY state, not Alabama. I can't imagine what it's like in gooberland.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on May 24, 2020, 11:54:57 PM
Outside of major urban centers, it's ALL Alabama.  :why_so_serious:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Surlyboi on May 25, 2020, 01:09:31 AM
The danger of a rushed vaccine is something like what they did with the swine flu vaccine back in '76 that gave a whole bunch people Guillain–Barré syndrome. I can see this bunch of chucklekfucks making something like that in a best-case scenario. I don't want to think about worst case.

As for people thinking it's over? Urban centers aren't safe either. I ventured out today and there were more maskless morons than I cared to count. I'm still making my mom stay home until fucking January at this point.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Gimfain on May 25, 2020, 07:32:22 AM
The danger of a rushed vaccine is something like what they did with the swine flu vaccine back in '76 that gave a whole bunch people Guillain–Barré syndrome. I can see this bunch of chucklekfucks making something like that in a best-case scenario. I don't want to think about worst case.
The only reason it was a mistake back then was because it was something mild, apply the same odds to something where the chance of dying is 1 in a 100 and the same thing would be viewed as a miracle, especially among older people where the odds of dying is 1 in 20 if they get it. Odds of me dying is somewhere around 1 in 2500 and with those odds it better be a safe vaccine.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Cyrrex on May 25, 2020, 10:12:44 AM
Trump has so poisoned his own FDA that I would trust nothing that comes from it while he is in office.  Better to look at authorities outside the US.

A fact which sadly applies to basically everything now.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Mandella on May 25, 2020, 02:11:20 PM
You gotta figure that if they get 100,000 volunteers, almost all of them will be MAGAs.  I think it is a great plan.
I don't see why. Most of them don't think the virus is a big deal.  

edited to add: and remember, I live in NY state, not Alabama. I can't imagine what it's like in gooberland.

Goobers are goobers everywhere. I've been to upstate NY, felt right at "home."


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Mandella on May 25, 2020, 02:13:55 PM
Trump has so poisoned his own FDA that I would trust nothing that comes from it while he is in office.  Better to look at authorities outside the US.

A fact which sadly applies to basically everything now.

Certainly not arguing your main point, but considering how many other countries are not exactly shining through as the bright shining hope on this, what authority would you suggest?

Honestly interest, not a snark.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Reg on May 25, 2020, 02:29:07 PM
I'm very sure of Health Canada. In the past we've trusted the FDA enough to rubber-stamp their decisions unless we had reason to doubt them (which we sometimes did.) That's just not going to happen anymore. If the government even tried there'd trouble. A fairly large majority of us have lost confidence in the USA. Our government may go on pretending that we're good buddies and allies but they aren't speaking for people who've been paying attention for the last few years.

The same applies to China and Saudi Arabia. We know they aren't our friends.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on May 25, 2020, 02:55:12 PM
I feel like it doesn't matter who you ask, because our understanding is changing rapidly.  And, usually for the worse.  

Look at this article from April 23rd discussing papers written in a survey a week earlier. (https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/surveys-infectious-disease-experts-aim-predict-covid-19-s-toll)  Pay attention to those predictions. 19 Experts in public health and infectious disease predicted the total number of deaths about 2 weeks out (May 1) and then again about 7 weeks out (June 1) in the US. Out of 19 modelers, only *one* predicted expected deaths in the US above 105,000 by June 1.  9 of them said the upper bounds of how many deaths we could possibly face was going to be below 100,000 for June 1.  We passed 100,000 days ago, and should end up around 107,000 to 110,000 once you adjust for the shitty data trends that have deaths per day dropping off every weekend.

I think back to all of those nice bell curves they were predicting with a spike around mid-April and then things falling off as rapidly as they came upon us.  Ha.  My most commonly used source (IMHE) was predicting on April 1 that we'd not exceed 93,000 deaths. 

I've found nothing to trust, but still there are clear rules: Stay the fuck away from people.  Go our as rarely as possible.  Shop in the middle of the night, when possible, or right when stores open.  



Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on May 25, 2020, 03:24:35 PM
i predicted a quarter million by summer

we're coming down to the wire

"thankfully" all the red states opened back up, so we're in for a party.... so to speak


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on May 25, 2020, 03:25:41 PM
It's becoming pretty clear that warm weather is not going to cause this one's infection rate to drop all that drastically.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on May 25, 2020, 04:05:03 PM
One thing to watch is that a lot more of the cases popping up in the global South are people under 40. That could mean a lot of things, some of them just an indicator of general poor health in the under-40s, some of them that a lot of developing nations skew hard to younger populations (so that it is not per capita more under 40) or it could mean the virus is continuing to mutate or demonstrate new infection patterns.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on May 25, 2020, 04:06:48 PM
April 6th. Trump: If under 100,000 Americans die from coronavirus we've done a good job


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on May 25, 2020, 04:16:44 PM
It's becoming pretty clear that warm weather is not going to cause this one's infection rate to drop all that drastically.

at all

it's not going to drop at all


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on May 25, 2020, 06:02:18 PM
It's becoming pretty clear that warm weather is not going to cause this one's infection rate to drop all that drastically.
MOst of the transmission seems to be taking inside with poor ventilation.  Not all of it, but those are the environments where the superspreaders are doing the most damage.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on May 25, 2020, 06:43:36 PM
It's becoming pretty clear that warm weather is not going to cause this one's infection rate to drop all that drastically.
MOst of the transmission seems to be taking inside with poor ventilation.  Not all of it, but those are the environments where the superspreaders are doing the most damage.
I think I've mentioned this before but ventilation -- i.e. circulating air -- may make things worse. E.g.:

COVID-19 Outbreak Associated with Air Conditioning in Restaurant, Guangzhou, China, 2020 (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0764_article)

This crop of the included figure (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0764-f1) is the interesting, tl;dr part:

(https://i.imgur.com/yLRNYS8.png)

A1 is "patient zero" in this case. Notice how customers both downwind *and* upwind of A1 (relative to the AC) got infected, but nobody "laterally" from A1 airflow-wise at tables E or F got infected. They swabbed the inside of the air conditioner itself and didn't find the virus there so it's unlikely table C got infected that way. It seems more likely there was circulating airflow because of the glass wall next to table B bouncing air back towards table C.

In any event eat at restaurants even with spaced apart tables at your own risk if you don't have antibodies yet as the virus may be able to travel much further than 6 feet in some circumstances.



Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on May 25, 2020, 07:04:03 PM
One thing to watch is that a lot more of the cases popping up in the global South are people under 40. That could mean a lot of things, some of them just an indicator of general poor health in the under-40s, some of them that a lot of developing nations skew hard to younger populations (so that it is not per capita more under 40) or it could mean the virus is continuing to mutate or demonstrate new infection patterns.
Or it could just be more people are being tested. If the hospitalization rate of those under 40 is going up, that would be something to worry about.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on May 25, 2020, 09:09:39 PM
I looked at some charts for Mississippi's cases and most of the total cases we have come from the under 50 crowd, but most of the deaths are the over 60 crowd. I'm going to put those numbers up to the "our people under 50 are being fucking retarded and think they are invincible" crowd.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Chimpy on May 25, 2020, 09:22:26 PM
I looked at some charts for Mississippi's cases and most of the total cases we have come from the under 50 crowd, but most of the deaths are the over 60 crowd. I'm going to put those numbers up to the "our people under 50 are being fucking retarded from Mississippi and can't think they are invincible" crowd.

Fixed to be more in line with most people's estimation  :why_so_serious:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on May 25, 2020, 09:51:19 PM
CDC's write up of the South Korea tracking in an office and the restaurant situation above.  A ventilation system that slowly pulls the virus along a path is bad.  A series of open windows is a different story. 

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/8/20-1274_article (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/8/20-1274_article) - Office Spread
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0764_article (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0764_article) - Restaurant Spread


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on May 25, 2020, 09:52:42 PM
I looked at some charts for Mississippi's cases and most of the total cases we have come from the under 50 crowd, but most of the deaths are the over 60 crowd. I'm going to put those numbers up to the "our people under 50 are being fucking retarded and think they are invincible" crowd.
Mississippi's cases by age group matches pretty closely the state's population by age group. So pretty much all adult age groups are behaving equally bad or good, depending on your perspective.

Note the age groups aren't quite the same between the charts.

(https://i.imgur.com/OGIQwg1.png[)

(https://i.imgur.com/GHqx7T0.png)

https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/14,0,420.html

https://acl.gov/sites/default/files/programs/2016-11/Mississippi%20Epi%20Profile%20Final.pdf


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Draegan on May 26, 2020, 04:09:03 PM
Can a smart medical person help me out here and tell me what risks are at factor. I'm from NJ and my mother (also in NJ) wants to visit the grand kids for a few days and I'm trying to figure out if it's safe.

10-14 days ago, my father was feeling ill, had a fever, and went in to a local emergent care facility. My mother got an Anti-Body test from Quest Diagnostics (SARS CoV 2 Serology, SARS CoV 2 AB IGG) and it came back positive. My father went into the hospital with an infection and was released a few days later. He tested negative in the hospital for the virus.

My father just got an antibody test, same as my mother, and tested positive as well, the results came back today. (They are currently doing just fine)

If my mother were to come to my home what are the risks? Is it safe for her and also with my father (who wouldn't be visiting)? Is it safe for me and my family?

Personally, I've been basically quarantined from home for the most part. In the last 2 weeks I've been inside a grocery store once if that matters at all.

Can anyone help explain the tests, their accuracy, and what it means for people around them?


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on May 26, 2020, 04:32:02 PM
Here's the WaPo piece on higher death rates for 20-49 in Brazil, Mexico and other developing countries: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/coronavirus-brazil-killing-young-developing-world/2020/05/22/f76d83e8-99e9-11ea-ad79-eef7cd734641_story.html  The interpretation seems to be that it's greater medical precariousness with an unhealthier population on the whole therefore more people who are vulnerable. One of the complicated things about a lot of developed economies, including the US, is that while they may have a lot of obesity-connected ailments including in relatively poor communities that have poor access to fresh non-processed food, on balance those ailments may still leave the overall population healthier or more resilient to many other illnesses than societies where many grow up with food insufficiency. It's the basic argument that a lot of demographic historians have made about global population increases after 1750 or so--that the availability of more calories to the whole population in wealthier societies, even if the calories were nutritionally 'bad' (e.g., sugar) let more people survive the first five years of life and gave them more basic metabolic energy for the development of their immune systems.

Waiting to see what what the experts say on Draegan's query--I wouldn't want to venture an opinion plus I'm sort of curious for my own sake.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Gimfain on May 26, 2020, 05:04:24 PM
In brazil only 9-10% are 65 or older, in western countries 20% are 65 or older. There's likely to be an even bigger difference for 80+ so the statistical differences might just be due to differences in age distribution.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on May 26, 2020, 06:13:40 PM
Can a smart medical person help me out here and tell me what risks are at factor. I'm from NJ and my mother (also in NJ) wants to visit the grand kids for a few days and I'm trying to figure out if it's safe.

10-14 days ago, my father was feeling ill, had a fever, and went in to a local emergent care facility. My mother got an Anti-Body test from Quest Diagnostics (SARS CoV 2 Serology, SARS CoV 2 AB IGG) and it came back positive. My father went into the hospital with an infection and was released a few days later. He tested negative in the hospital for the virus.

My father just got an antibody test, same as my mother, and tested positive as well, the results came back today. (They are currently doing just fine)

If my mother were to come to my home what are the risks? Is it safe for her and also with my father (who wouldn't be visiting)? Is it safe for me and my family?

Personally, I've been basically quarantined from home for the most part. In the last 2 weeks I've been inside a grocery store once if that matters at all.

Can anyone help explain the tests, their accuracy, and what it means for people around them?
NOT A DOCTOR. DON'T LISTEN TO RANDOMS ON INTERNET FOR MEDICAL ADVICE.

That being said it sounds like there's still a risk your mother may be infectious since she hasn't been tested for the virus itself -- i.e. she may be an asymptomatic carrier. If there's a no-referral PCR testing facility near her that would be one way to check but you would want her to be tested at least twice (like one or two days apart) to reduce the chances of a false-negative result. Or you could have her wait 14 days before coming to visit.

https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/if-youve-been-exposed-to-the-coronavirus

Quote
For how long after I am infected will I continue to be contagious? At what point in my illness will I be most contagious?
[...]
Most people with coronavirus who have symptoms will no longer be contagious by 10 days after symptoms resolve. People who test positive for the virus but never develop symptoms over the following 10 days after testing are probably no longer contagious, but again there are documented exceptions. So some experts are still recommending 14 days of isolation.

One of the main problems with general rules regarding contagion and transmission of this coronavirus is the marked differences in how it behaves in different individuals. That's why everyone needs to wear a mask and keep a physical distance of at least six feet.

Here is a more "scientific" way to determine if you are no longer contagious: have two nasal-throat tests or saliva tests 24 hours apart that are both negative for the virus.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Draegan on May 26, 2020, 06:21:24 PM
If my parents indeed had something, my father had a sinus infection he was treated for back in early April or so.

My mother's test was from 5/8.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Father mike on May 26, 2020, 06:21:33 PM
Can anyone help explain the tests, their accuracy, and what it means for people around them?

My wife is an MD.  Here's her take.

The anitbody tests are extremely unreliable.  Corona viruses are an incredibly prevalent class of virus -- the common cold is in the Corona class.  The current antibody tests don't have the specificity to single out COVID-19 reliably, so you get a LOT of false positives.  She didn't have info on the specific tests you listed, but she said that her practice doesn't feel that the antibody tests are accurate enough to use for diagnostic purposes.

The PCR test can tell you if you currently have it, but it can generate false negatives and it's not a rapid-read type test (you have to send it off and wait a few days).

As far as the risks ... I don't have a great answer.  But she said she wouldn't make plans based around the results of an antibody test.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on May 26, 2020, 06:31:53 PM
If my parents indeed had something, my father had a sinus infection he was treated for back in early April or so.

My mother's test was from 5/8.
So if we assume your mother was/is an asymptomatic carrier and was contagious starting on that date then it's been more than 14 days since then. However my recommendation would still be to have her get some PCR tests done.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Draegan on May 26, 2020, 06:59:13 PM
Can anyone help explain the tests, their accuracy, and what it means for people around them?

My wife is an MD.  Here's her take.

The anitbody tests are extremely unreliable.  Corona viruses are an incredibly prevalent class of virus -- the common cold is in the Corona class.  The current antibody tests don't have the specificity to single out COVID-19 reliably, so you get a LOT of false positives.  She didn't have info on the specific tests you listed, but she said that her practice doesn't feel that the antibody tests are accurate enough to use for diagnostic purposes.

The PCR test can tell you if you currently have it, but it can generate false negatives and it's not a rapid-read type test (you have to send it off and wait a few days).

As far as the risks ... I don't have a great answer.  But she said she wouldn't make plans based around the results of an antibody test.

That's the general thought process with antibody tests in general, but this is a very good test out of all of them as far as I can tell reading different opinions.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Father mike on May 26, 2020, 07:18:15 PM
Like I said, my wife doesn't have any info on that specific test.  It may be a very accurate test, but the information sources she relies upon haven't singled it out as being accurate enough to rely on, yet.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: MahrinSkel on May 26, 2020, 08:08:47 PM
Like I said, my wife doesn't have any info on that specific test.  It may be a very accurate test, but the information sources she relies upon haven't singled it out as being accurate enough to rely on, yet.
UCSF and UC Berkeley have done some experiments on this, using known-positive and known-negative samples (from before COVID was a thing in humans). Quest had one of the better performances, with >99% specificity (1 false positive on 150 samples) and 90% sensitivity. Of the rapid tests, it was the lowest false positives.

https://covidtestingproject.org/ (https://covidtestingproject.org/)

Pre-print of the report at the link.

--Dave


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on May 29, 2020, 12:41:39 PM
We had a meeting yesterday to say that staff will be back in the building on Monday as NY enters Phase 2. Last night Cuomo announced that NY would stay in Phase 1 for another 2 weeks (and our county exec had a public meltdown). Then, disturbingly, our director sent an email saying that the system directors were of a consensus that we should've been Phase 1 anyway and we would continue to open as a retail entity.

It's moot, since Cuomo backpedaled...but holy shit. The boss, who had been really compliant and ahead of the curve, just pulled a redstate move. Since the system directors look to her for guidance, I feel they all 'complied' because she has been so on point thus far.

Now we're questioning everything she's doing going forward. It's amazing how the fatigue is hitting people in really weird ways, even a couple weeks ago she would never go against the stated guidelines. And we have no choice but to go along with what she decides, even if it's 'fuck it, we're phase 1 because I think so'.

Which means that now, outside of total lockdown again, we'll be open no matter what. Fiancee is having a meltdown, her mom is doing poorly in isolation (her dementia is progressing extremely rapidly to the point she totaled her car this week), and now her stress burden includes being forced back to work despite anything the governor says.

Shit is getting crazier. I'm going to stop thinking it can't get crazier now, when even the previously sane people are getting chaotic.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Cyrrex on May 29, 2020, 01:08:46 PM
Meanwhile, here in my worklplace in DK, where we have days now where nobody at all dies, I have been informed that I will be working from home probably until there is a vaccine.

This is why America is fucked.  You are not even within the ballpark of taking this seriously and never have been.  On the whole.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Polysorbate80 on May 29, 2020, 01:52:43 PM
.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Hawkbit on May 29, 2020, 02:12:38 PM
My wife works for a large insurance firm now. Management worried when all this went down that employees wouldn’t be productive. Three months into lockdown now they’re starting to not renew leases in some cities, telling employees to work from home permanently. Sounds like they’re going to funnel the rent costs into a tech buy to help wfh. I’m sure they’re pocketing extra money too.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: 01101010 on May 29, 2020, 02:28:41 PM
My wife works for a large insurance firm now. Management worried when all this went down that employees wouldn’t be productive. Three months into lockdown now they’re starting to not renew leases in some cities, telling employees to work from home permanently. Sounds like they’re going to funnel the rent costs into a tech buy to help wfh. I’m sure they’re pocketing extra money too.

Wife and I discussed this as well since UPMC is putting out email surveys "exploring" the WFH model. Already talks of not renewing leases and how that is going to turn downtown Pittsburgh into a ghost town and at the same time making UPMC richer. They already have a tech allocation that might get a bump but nothing like it should. And you damn well know it is not going to increased wages.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: MahrinSkel on May 29, 2020, 02:48:00 PM
My wife works for a large insurance firm now. Management worried when all this went down that employees wouldn’t be productive. Three months into lockdown now they’re starting to not renew leases in some cities, telling employees to work from home permanently. Sounds like they’re going to funnel the rent costs into a tech buy to help wfh. I’m sure they’re pocketing extra money too.

Wife and I discussed this as well since UPMC is putting out email surveys "exploring" the WFH model. Already talks of not renewing leases and how that is going to turn downtown Pittsburgh into a ghost town and at the same time making UPMC richer. They already have a tech allocation that might get a bump but nothing like it should. And you damn well know it is not going to increased wages.
You'll make it up in commuting costs. Not to mention having that time back. I should write a Medium piece on staging for wfh offices. Where to put the camera, how to get clear sound without letting everyone hear what's happening off camera, what to have in the background, etc.

--Dave


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on May 29, 2020, 02:55:53 PM
I don't see it.  WFH is possible, but there are far too many inefficiencies .  At some point, there will be a swing to bring people back to offices, whether that is after safety improves, after rents drop, or just when the business identifies the hidden costs of wide ranging WFH.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on May 29, 2020, 02:57:21 PM
Meanwhile, here in my worklplace in DK, where we have days now where nobody at all dies, I have been informed that I will be working from home probably until there is a vaccine.

This is why America is fucked.  You are not even within the ballpark of taking this seriously and never have been.  On the whole.

Sacrificing the old and the sick, while terrible, will not stop anything.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Surlyboi on May 29, 2020, 03:14:47 PM
 :uhrr:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on May 29, 2020, 03:40:57 PM
Just keep fucking that chicken, slog.

I've been informed that many of us will be back at work on a staggered schedule starting Monday. My dept. will be one week of Mon/Wed/Fri followed by a week of Tue/Thu (half the employees will be there on 3 days one week then 2 days the next) so that we are at 50% normal staffing at least for our division. The days we aren't in the office will still be officially work from home days.

Of course, I live in a state where we "quarantined" but most people don't follow guidelines like wearing masks or social distancing, have been going to church constantly and were gleefully having giant parties this past weekend. We all gon' die.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on May 29, 2020, 04:57:33 PM
That's the ironic thing, the virus isn't bad here yet, but it's as bad as it's been since this started. So...we go back to work despite nothing really changing, the temp testing is a joke. At least our hospitals should be able to handle it with a cluster of small/medium cities with university facilities.

At this point everything has been so colossally mishandled that I've come back to the 'save the economy' side, because we're sure as fuck not buying much time or making anything safer.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on May 29, 2020, 05:10:15 PM
I'd like to know what slog thinks is wrong with South Korea or New Zealand.

I suspect he will fall back on "This is America, and we suck". Which he will then also take to be completely normal, acceptable and defensible--or wholly someone's fault besides his own.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on May 29, 2020, 05:48:18 PM
More bad new for hydroxychloroquine. In the largest observational study to date hydroxychloroquine with or without a macrolide antibiotic like azithromycin showed increased mortality rates compared to the placebo group.

The Lancet: Hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine with or without a macrolide for treatment of COVID-19: a multinational registry analysis (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31180-6/fulltext)

Study Analysis:

STAT: What a big new study on malaria drugs as Covid-19 treatments tells us — and what it doesn’t (https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/22/what-a-big-new-study-on-malaria-drugs-as-covid-19-treatments-tells-us-and-what-it-doesnt/)
Quote
“It’s a very striking finding and it’s convincing to me,” said Steven Nissen, a cardiologist at the Cleveland Clinic. “Based upon these findings and others, no one should take hydroxychloroquine with or without an antibiotic unless they are in a randomized controlled trial. It should not be used in the general population to prevent or to treat Covid-19 infection.”

Eric Topol, director and founder of the Scripps Research Translational Institute and a cardiologist, noted the risk in a series of tweets. “It’s no longer that hydroxychloroquine has no sign of efficacy,” he wrote, “it is associated with an increase in mortality.”
Lots of people are not happy with this study. The server hosting the letter to the Lancet (https://zenodo.org/record/3862789#.XtBU7BMzYXr) signed by more 120 researchers and medical professionals is broken but I believe this is the contents, cribbed from Reddit:
Quote
Concerns regarding the statistical analysis and data integrity

The retrospective, observational study of 96,032 hospitalized COVID-19 patients from six continents reported substantially increased mortality (~30% excess deaths) and occurrence of cardiac arrhythmias associated with the use of the 4-aminoquinoline drugs hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine. These results have had a considerable impact on public health practice and research.

The WHO has paused recruitment to the hydroxychloroquine arm in their SOLIDARITY trial. The UK regulatory body, MHRA, requested the temporary pausing of recruitment into all hydroxychloroquine trials in the UK (treatment and prevention), and France has changed its national recommendation for the use of hydroxychloroquine in COVID-19 treatment and also halted trials.

The subsequent media headlines have caused considerable concern to participants and patients enrolled in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) seeking to characterize the potential benefits and risks of these drugs in the treatment and prevention of COVID-19 infections. There is uniform agreement that well conducted RCTs are needed to inform policies and practices.

This impact has led many researchers around the world to scrutinize in detail the publication in question. This scrutiny has raised both methodological and data integrity concerns. The main concerns are listed as follows:

1. There was inadequate adjustment for known and measured confounders (disease severity, temporal effects, site effects, dose used).
2. The authors have not adhered to standard practices in the machine learning and statistics community. They have not released their code or data. There is no data/code sharing and availability statement in the paper. The Lancet was among the many signatories on the Wellcome statement on data sharing for COVID-19 studies.
3. There was no ethics review.
4. There was no mention of the countries or hospitals that contributed to the data source and no acknowledgments to their contributions. A request to the authors for information on the contributing centres was denied.
5. Data from Australia are not compatible with government reports (too many cases for just five hospitals, more in-hospital deaths than had occurred in the entire country during the study period). Surgisphere (the data company) have since stated this was an error of classification of one hospital from Asia. This indicates the need for further error checking throughout the database.
6. Data from Africa indicate that nearly 25% of all COVID-19 cases and 40% of all deaths in the continent occurred in Surgisphere-associated hospitals which had sophisticated electronic patient data recording, and patient monitoring able to detect and record “nonsustained [at least 6 secs] or sustained ventricular tachycardia or ventricular fibrillation”. Both the numbers of cases and deaths, and the detailed data collection, seem unlikely.
7. Unusually small reported variances in baseline variables, interventions and outcomes between continents (Table S3).
8. Mean daily doses of hydroxychloroquine that are 100 mg higher than FDA recommendations, whereas 66% of the data are from North American hospitals.
9. Implausible ratios of chloroquine to hydroxychloroquine use in some continents.
10. The tight 95% confidence intervals reported for the hazard ratios appear inconsistent with the data. For instance, for the Australian data this would need about double the numbers of recorded deaths as were reported in the paper. The patient data were obtained through electronic health records, supply chain databases, and financial records. The data are held by the US company Surgisphere. In response to a request for the data Professor Mehra replied: “Our data sharing agreements with the various governments, countries and hospitals do not allow us to share data unfortunately.”

Given the enormous importance and influence of these results, we believe it is imperative that:

1. The company Surgisphere provides details on data provenance. At the very minimum, this means sharing the aggregated patient data at the hospital level (for all covariates and outcomes)
2. Independent validation of the analysis is performed by a group convened by the World Health Organization, or at least one other independent and respected institution. This would entail additional analyses (e.g. determining if there is a dose-effect) to assess the validity of the conclusions
3. There is open access to all the data sharing agreements cited above to ensure that, in each jurisdiction, any mined data was legally and ethically collected and patient privacy aspects respected

In the interests of transparency, we also ask The Lancet to make openly available the peer review comments that led to this manuscript to be accepted for publication.

This open letter is signed by clinicians, medical researchers, statisticians, and ethicists from across the world. The full list of signatories and affiliations can be found below.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on May 29, 2020, 07:05:20 PM
Those are pretty valid critiques. Part of the issue now is that with Trump promoting it, other people have something at stake in showing it's not helpful. If we really want to be committed to the science, we have to follow it--and the problem really is that good clinical results are so thoroughly contaminated in the case of ALL pharmaceuticals right now--so much metaresearch has shown that many drug trials have been simultaneously tainted by corporate imperatives and academic publication incentives that we really only know for sure about drugs and therapies that have overwhelming benefits that stand out in any data. Knowing what works here is going to take a while, as it did with HIV, as it does with many conditions. And the thing is that it's not purely about financial incentives. There's a significant financial incentive to knock down norovirus considering its massive impact on tourism and the travel industry as well as nursing homes but it's a super-complicated prospect technically so progress has been very slow.

If we're gonna live by the science, we have to die by it, if that's the way it is.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on May 29, 2020, 09:03:41 PM
I'd like to know what slog thinks is wrong with South Korea or New Zealand.

I suspect he will fall back on "This is America, and we suck". Which he will then also take to be completely normal, acceptable and defensible--or wholly someone's fault besides his own.


Not a thing is wrong with those countries.  I would like to know why you think I'm wrong.  Do you not see all the people walking without masks walking around completely ignoring anything resembling social distancing?  America isn't fucked because this thing kills the old and the sick.  Here in NH we are losing 5 people a day in nursing homes to the virus and everyone just carries on like normal.

Edit:  If he meant that lots of people will die unnecessarily when he wrote "America is fucked" then I take it all back.  I assumed he meant America is going to collapse.  I'm thinking we will see 300,000 to 500,000 deaths, but the country as an institution will carry on as normal after that.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on May 29, 2020, 11:16:20 PM

 I would like to know why you think I'm wrong.

Experience. Your avatar does not help either.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Cyrrex on May 30, 2020, 02:21:21 AM

Edit:  If he meant that lots of people will die unnecessarily when he wrote "America is fucked" then I take it all back.  I assumed he meant America is going to collapse.  I'm thinking we will see 300,000 to 500,000 deaths, but the country as an institution will carry on as normal after that.

That is what I meant.  Covid alone will not bring Ameica down.

But America is collapsing before your eyes for a bunch of reasons already, so meh, may as well just let Covid run its course.  You literally do not have a government that can or will prevent that from happening anyway.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on May 30, 2020, 04:38:31 AM

Edit:  If he meant that lots of people will die unnecessarily when he wrote "America is fucked" then I take it all back.  I assumed he meant America is going to collapse.  I'm thinking we will see 300,000 to 500,000 deaths, but the country as an institution will carry on as normal after that.

That is what I meant.  Covid alone will not bring Ameica down.

But America is collapsing before your eyes for a bunch of reasons already, so meh, may as well just let Covid run its course.  You literally do not have a government that can or will prevent that from happening anyway.

"You can always count on Americans to do the right thing - after they've tried everything else."


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on May 30, 2020, 11:18:47 AM
Here in NH we are losing 5 people a day in nursing homes to the virus and everyone just carries on like normal.
Confirmed nursing home deaths in NY are in the thousands and climbing. Opinions vary between 'it's all fake' and 'they were going to die anyway.'

Just kidding, we also have our valiant progressives who think we should all lock down Death Stranding-style for the next 2 years and let our economy collapse completely.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on May 30, 2020, 03:09:10 PM
The President of Music offers some advice to Musicians

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=41dOETwOFG8


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on May 31, 2020, 12:18:07 AM
The timing is based on the incubation period (up to 2-3 weeks) and time from onset of cough to very serious symptoms (about 8-10 days). People will seem to do alright and then just crash...
Given this timing (which I think still holds true to our expectations), and the general opening of the flood gates that took place in certain states at the start of May, wouldn't we be expecting to see positive tests and hospitalizations start to rise around now? And deaths in the next 7 to 14 days?  And, as nothing has been done to curb the spread in those states, shouldn't those numbers continue to rise for a minimum of 5 weeks (even if they started to take action next week)?  I'm just trying to calibrate my expectations.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on May 31, 2020, 01:32:39 AM
It depends. If counting and testing methodologies haven't changed then you would expect to see what you described. However if, for example, testing frequency has increased then you might see an increase in new cases even though the actual infection rate hasn't changed. E.g. in my county we've seen a rise in new cases even though we're still in mostly in lockdown mode but that may be because we now have testing locations that don't require a doctor's referral and some of those don't even require an appointment. Or let's say a place that has opened up has seen an increase in new cases but they also are testing more frequently / have testing more widely available. It's hard in that case to determine how much of that increase in new cases is attributable to an increase in infection rate rather than testing frequency. The way hospitalizations and deaths are counted can change as well which again can make it hard to determine if the infection rate is increasing.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on May 31, 2020, 07:27:22 AM
Over the last week we've seen a decrease in daily testing in South Carolina. The number of positive tests per day had a few days worth of increases. I'm wondering if this is the start of the climb, or just a bit of variance.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Cyrrex on May 31, 2020, 08:42:02 AM
Um, guys?  Massive out of control protests all over your country.  Toss your guesses out the window.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: 01101010 on May 31, 2020, 08:49:24 AM
Um, guys?  Massive out of control protests all over your country.  Toss your guesses out the window.

Yeah, people were already relaxing the distancing thing because they are basically tired of it - now you are basically grouping up to protest. This will be the test of how powerful the virus really is - either it stays generally the same or we're going to see an explosion of cases and deaths.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on May 31, 2020, 12:53:02 PM
I'm just assembling my understanding of the situation based upon all the various sources I've come across and would love to hear where people think I've got something wrong.

The virus can spread from surfaces to mouth/nose and infect, but that is not as common as aerosol transmission.  Proper hand washing and surface cleaning nearly eliminates the surface transmission risk.  Exposing yourself to surfaces you did not control, such as prepared foods you did not prepare yourself, exposes you to the risk, as would touching your face without washing your hands after touching an exposed surface, but outside that, risks are very low of surface transmission.

Aerosol transmission is the most common form of transmission and is easiest with sneezing, coughing, shouting, breathing heavy, etc... which allows concentrations of the virus to reach nearby people quickly.  For less vigorous aerosol distribution (without the extra oomph behind it of a sneeze, cough, yell or shout) where standard breathing is the method of delivery, you need one of the following circumstances:

* Very close proximity (time required will depend upon proximity and viral shed of the contagious person),
* Slow moving air that will push the exhalation of the virus along a path without too much disruption (which will require a length of time determined by the distance and extent of air disruption, and will be highly impacted by the rate of viral shed of the contagious person), or
* No air circulation so that the exhalation cloud can slowly expand over time (which will impact a larger and larger area over time - the extend of which will be controlled primarily by the viral shed of the contagious person)

Outside, there are several forces that help protect from the viral transmission.  The first is sunlight which kills the virus in the air at a reasonably quick rate.  The second is wind which disrupts concentrations of the virus in the air, making it harder to deliver a sufficient viral lode for contagion.  The third is humidity, as this has also shown a tendency to limit the ability of the virus to transmit (as well as having impacts on our immune systems, etc...).

If that is all correct, it seems like a lot of these protests and other recent outside events (such as the masses at the beaches) may be in a medium, rather than high, risk zone for transmission.  The folks that are tongue fucking strangers or climbing all over each other are exposing themselves, but unless there are a lot of infected people together shedding virus, marching with them in an open sunny space exposed to wind (and perhaps humidity) may not cause truly massive spikes all at once.

People gathering in restaurants, stores, movie theaters, etc... may be a different story, however.  While sunlight may be coming into windows, etc... to hamper the virus, for the most part these areas still seem ripe to transmit it.

If all that is generally correct, this leaves me unsure how big the June swell will be.  I expect to see things stop declining, but I am unsure if it will swell up to NY levels in many areas, or be a slow climb that brings our death rate back up to 2K people per day by the end of August, or hold steady at some level for a while ... until the weather turns and people start spending more time inside.  At which time we may have kids back in school, etc... and might see them become a massive source of redistribution throughout communities. 

What is wrong in the above?


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on May 31, 2020, 01:39:40 PM
I'm pretty sure all the shithead cops just blasting people in protests with tear gas and pepper spray causing them to cough violently and cry is going to significantly raise the transmission rate of this thing within 2-3 weeks in urban centers where the violent police backlash against protests happened.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on May 31, 2020, 03:09:05 PM
Jgsugden fistly while you mention sneezing, sneezing isn't a symptom of the virus. if you sneeze for something unrelated like allergies, then sure. it will spread the bug.

High Humidity could slow the evaporation of droplets that are carrying the bug, making them live a bit longer on surfaces and in the air.

Aside from that I cant see much wrong with what you said, but I'm no expert.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Samwise on May 31, 2020, 03:46:36 PM
Um, guys?  Massive out of control protests all over your country.  Toss your guesses out the window.

Yeah, people were already relaxing the distancing thing because they are basically tired of it - now you are basically grouping up to protest. This will be the test of how powerful the virus really is - either it stays generally the same or we're going to see an explosion of cases and deaths.

I mean, we seem bound and determined to make this in every way a shittier version of the Spanish Flu pandemic.  I guess this is like that parade in Philadelphia that caused a massive outbreak there, except with a lot more violence, and in every major city simultaneously.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on May 31, 2020, 10:54:02 PM
Jgsugden fistly while you mention sneezing, sneezing isn't a symptom of the virus. if you sneeze for something unrelated like allergies, then sure. it will spread the bug.
Agreed. 

Quote
High Humidity could slow the evaporation of droplets that are carrying the bug, making them live a bit longer on surfaces and in the air.
That was my as well, but when I started to look at Covid 19 and humidity all of thre articles were pointing in the opposite direction.
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/how-humidity-may-affect-covid-19-outcome (https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/how-humidity-may-affect-covid-19-outcome)
https://www.sarasotamagazine.com/coronavirus/2020/04/can-high-humidity-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19 (https://www.sarasotamagazine.com/coronavirus/2020/04/can-high-humidity-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19)
https://qz.com/1843347/if-covid-19-becomes-seasonal-humidity-could-help-explain-why/ (https://qz.com/1843347/if-covid-19-becomes-seasonal-humidity-could-help-explain-why/)

However:
(https://www.who.int/images/default-source/health-topics/coronavirus/myth-busters/52.png?sfvrsn=862374e_12)

So - it provides some protection and reduces the area/rate of transmission, but is not a total protection.  Right?


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on June 01, 2020, 04:35:04 AM
From what you've posted that a fair statement with evidence, ya.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Teleku on June 01, 2020, 04:43:34 AM
Flu season in Myanmar/SE is rainy season (so starting right now).  So I sort of doubt we're going to see much relief due to weather.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on June 01, 2020, 02:58:01 PM
South Korea closing schools days after opening them. (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52845015?fbclid=IwAR0EcwZiyZPfSPztnYa5hmAk5vgengMhakmkVY15A3nMQCMuBasqBkflmbc)

They're doing so much more to fight the virus.  And they're not able to keep schools safe.  We're fucked.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on June 01, 2020, 03:06:25 PM
Not a very good article. The linked Korea Times article (https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2020/05/181_290297.html) makes it more clear that students are getting infected which is why they've closed schools / postponed reopenings. The BBC article makes it sounds like they closed the schools because factory workers are getting infected.

And yes unless you can get cases down to near zero (relative to total population) or zero like New Zealand and Taiwan have done relaxing restrictions will inevitably cause a rise in new cases until enough people have antibodies.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on June 04, 2020, 03:23:30 PM
Evidence continues to grow that blood type has an affect on SARS-CoV-2 with three studies so far all showing at A+ type at increased risk, B+ roughly "neutral" risk, and O+ at decreased risk.

The latest pre-print study[1] looked at the genes of patients with COVID-19 respiratory failure in Italy and Spain and found a location associated with ABO blood typing that showed a 45% increased risk of respiratory failure for A+ and a 35% decreased risk for O+.

An earlier study from China[2] showed a roughly similar increase in both infection and death rates for types A and O (no Rh in their data). And a study of patients at a NYC hospital system[3] also showed the same relationship for infection rates (they weren't able to show any relationships for deaths or intubations).

The mechanism for why this might be is unknown but it may involve the anti-A antibody which is present in blood types B and O and has been shown to inhibit the binding of SARS-CoV-1 (i.e. SARS) to ACE2[4].

Edit: New York Times article on study: Genes May Leave Some People More Vulnerable to Severe Covid-19 (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/03/health/coronavirus-blood-type-genetics.html)

[1] The ABO blood group locus and a chromosome 3 gene cluster associate with SARS-CoV-2 respiratory failure in an Italian-Spanish genome-wide association analysis (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.31.20114991v1)

[2] Relationship between the ABO Blood Group and the COVID-19 Susceptibility (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.20031096v2)

[3] Testing the association between blood type and COVID-19 infection, intubation, and death (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.08.20058073)

[4] Glycobiology: Inhibition of the interaction between the SARS-CoV Spike protein and its cellular receptor by anti-histo-blood group antibodies (https://academic.oup.com/glycob/article/18/12/1085/1988773)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on June 04, 2020, 03:38:11 PM
More bad new for hydroxychloroquine. In the largest observational study to date hydroxychloroquine with or without a macrolide antibiotic like azithromycin showed increased mortality rates compared to the placebo group.

The Lancet: Hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine with or without a macrolide for treatment of COVID-19: a multinational registry analysis (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31180-6/fulltext)
Lots of people are not happy with this study.
And...retracted: https://www.thelancet.com/lancet/article/s0140673620313246

The New England Journal of Medicine also apparently retracted the study (https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/04/lancet-retracts-major-covid-19-paper-that-raised-safety-concerns-about-malaria-drugs/) they published on blood pressure medication and COVID-19 based on the same suspect Surgisphere databse though I can't find the retraction statement on their site directly.

Edit: here's the NEJM retraction: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2021225


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: MahrinSkel on June 04, 2020, 03:57:44 PM
Evidence continues to grow that blood type has an affect on SARS-CoV-2 with three studies so far all showing at A+ type at increased risk, B+ roughly "neutral" risk, and O+ at decreased risk.

The latest pre-print study[1] looked at the genes of patients with COVID-19 respiratory failure in Italy and Spain and found a location associated with ABO blood typing that showed a 45% increased risk of respiratory failure for A+ and a 35% decreased risk for O+.
They saw that in China early on, but it's good (from a certain POV, guess what my blood type is) to have it confirmed.

Sorry about you mutants with A+, though.

--Dave


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on June 04, 2020, 04:17:51 PM
Saved by Tyson the alpaca?

An alpaca nanobody neutralizes SARS-CoV-2 by blocking receptor interaction (https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.02.130161v1)

The replies in this tweet from the lead author are hilarious:

https://twitter.com/mcinerney_gerry/status/1268087576340168704

tl;dr Camelid (e.g.camels, llamas, alpacas) antibodies are different than other types and can split up into fragments (a nanobody) and replicated by bacteria and used for therapies in humans. The researchers in the paper infected Tyson with SARS-CoV-2 and isolated that part of the antibodies he produced that binds to the SARS-CoV-2 receptor that binds to our cells preventing the virus from replicating. This is all still test-tube lab work type stuff at the moment so it may be a while before trials in humans start but we use nanobodies for other therapies so we know how to do it.

Edit: Reuters article: Tyson the alpaca takes heavyweight role in search for coronavirus vaccine (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccine/tyson-the-alpaca-takes-heavyweight-role-in-search-for-coronavirus-vaccine-idUSKBN23B28L) (warning possible auto-playing video)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Raph on June 05, 2020, 03:46:27 PM
I’m A+.:(


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on June 05, 2020, 06:17:28 PM
And thus born were the Were-alpacas.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tale on June 05, 2020, 08:49:22 PM
Evidence continues to grow that blood type has an affect on SARS-CoV-2 with three studies so far all showing at A+ type at increased risk, B+ roughly "neutral" risk, and O+ at decreased risk.

Perhaps relevant to another blood-related theory: Coronavirus May Be a Blood Vessel Disease, Which Explains Everything (https://elemental.medium.com/coronavirus-may-be-a-blood-vessel-disease-which-explains-everything-2c4032481ab2)

As an O+ over 50, I've been feeling safer lately.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Cyrrex on June 06, 2020, 04:07:47 AM
As an O neg, I assume I am practically a terminator compared to this thing.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on June 10, 2020, 06:11:54 PM
This may only be of interest to Dave but a recent paper modeled three different strategies for modifying a person's social graph during the pandemic to see which was most effectively in slowing down the spread.

Nature Human Behaviour: Social network-based distancing strategies to flatten the COVID-19 curve in a post-lockdown world (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-0898-6)

The three strategies, paraphrased, are:

1. Restrict based on similarity (geography, age, income, etc., similarity strategy)
2. Restrict based on community (restrict non-common ties, community strategy)
3. Restrict to those you interact with most (repetition strategy)

Strategy 3 turns out to be the most effective in their model though not signficantly more than the other two.

(https://i.imgur.com/dbvNkuw.png)



Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on June 10, 2020, 06:34:32 PM
I'll look at the paper in a bit, but did they model variable defection rates in each strategy model?

Basically a lot of residential undergraduate higher ed is going for "strategy 2" but the question that's floating around it is, "If you ask your students to stay strictly in community--to not travel to other campuses, to not go home frequently, to not go on road trips, etc., will they do it?" At least a few of them won't, so if this works, it has to work well even if you have something like 5-10% defections. But it would be interesting to model that upwards to see where the strategy breaks and becomes little better than no restriction.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on June 10, 2020, 06:43:30 PM
I'll look at the paper in a bit, but did they model variable defection rates in each strategy model?
I think so. The model is pretty complicated but I believe they are setting the parameters for the actors in the simulations so they aren't following the restrictions 100%. Search for the "Parametrization of the different simulations" section near the bottom to see how the set things.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: MahrinSkel on June 10, 2020, 06:59:05 PM
This may only be of interest to Dave but a recent paper modeled three different strategies for modifying a person's social graph during the pandemic to see which was most effectively in slowing down the spread.

Nature Human Behaviour: Social network-based distancing strategies to flatten the COVID-19 curve in a post-lockdown world (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-0898-6)
(https://i.postimg.cc/4dP88jK6/QpOqoAi.gif)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on June 10, 2020, 10:33:18 PM
Positive tests in my area going from 3 to 4% four weeks ago to 9 to 14% this week?

Numbers of tests being provided also increasing steadily?

Deaths per day also on the increase already?

I'd say we were starting to spike in every critical category... except for people social distancing, wearing masks, or taking other precautions.  We're still managing to keep those numbers dirt low.  Like, 6 feet under low. 


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on June 11, 2020, 12:21:34 PM
Out shopping for food today, everyone wearing masks. Not being that careful about personal proximity, but not bad. I was struck that the plexiglass shield they've put up for the people at the registers is kind of fucking dumb because it covers the area where you swipe your debit or credit card but not the area where they put your bags before you put them in your cart, and the clerk is constantly turning and facing you about a foot away without a shield there. But at least there are masks.

Mostly I saw people in shopping lots wearing masks too to and from cars.

But apparently in some states (Texas, South Carolina), absolutely nobody is wearing masks anywhere and almost no one is distancing.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on June 11, 2020, 12:39:02 PM
I had to get gas the other day any everyone was wearing masks. Also plexiglass.

Don't clump cities and states together.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on June 11, 2020, 12:50:11 PM
Mask wearing in Texas and South Carolina is optional. Hence the reason why so many aren't. And of course Austin is Austin, and I'm assuming Houston is probably similar.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Rasix on June 11, 2020, 12:53:24 PM
The Tucson response to Arizona's "open up" is somewhat of a mixed bag. A lot of people have just stopped trying, and a majority of these appear to be older people. Bars are in full swing and some are even hosting live music (wtf?).

The Whole Foods are requiring masks, but they're still doing curbside, so fuck going inside. Other places look like everyone but employees are just ignoring any resemblance of safety. I don't really trust my safety to the business driven decision making of our ex-ice-cream-shop CEO governor. And if that isn't bad enough, doctor friends are telling us that ICUs in the area are at full capacity.

I'm getting a haircut on Wednesday, but my stylist is just a one person salon in a standalone building. She's already gotten Covid (closed down for 3 weeks), so I guess that's a plus.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on June 11, 2020, 01:16:47 PM
The Tucson response to Arizona's "open up" is somewhat of a mixed bag. A lot of people have just stopped trying, and a majority of these appear to be older people. Bars are in full swing and some are even hosting live music (wtf?).

The Whole Foods are requiring masks, but they're still doing curbside, so fuck going inside. Other places look like everyone but employees are just ignoring any resemblance of safety. I don't really trust my safety to the business driven decision making of our ex-ice-cream-shop CEO governor. And if that isn't bad enough, doctor friends are telling us that ICUs in the area are at full capacity.

I'm getting a haircut on Wednesday, but my stylist is just a one person salon in a standalone building. She's already gotten Covid (closed down for 3 weeks), so I guess that's a plus.
This is veering into Politics but Arizona is unfortunately one of those states that isn't do well at the moment. On the one hand the governor is saying "We are not in a crisis situation" and on the other Banner Health, the largest health care provider, is saying they are running out of ICU capacity and the state health director sent out a letter urging hospitals to "fully activate" emergency plans.

Edit: add page break quote


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: 01101010 on June 11, 2020, 01:44:07 PM
Out shopping for food today, everyone wearing masks. Not being that careful about personal proximity, but not bad. I was struck that the plexiglass shield they've put up for the people at the registers is kind of fucking dumb because it covers the area where you swipe your debit or credit card but not the area where they put your bags before you put them in your cart, and the clerk is constantly turning and facing you about a foot away without a shield there. But at least there are masks.

Mostly I saw people in shopping lots wearing masks too to and from cars.

But apparently in some states (Texas, South Carolina), absolutely nobody is wearing masks anywhere and almost no one is distancing.

Kinda on topic, but my local grocery store has had handheld scanners that you link to when you walk in and scan all your stuff as you go (you can also use your phone with the app if need be). Wife and I haven't used a checkout with a clerk since they started it. Scan, put it in the reusable bag, next aisle.

Thing that really struck me now as opposed to 2019, the stores in the area set up all the aisles as 1-way aisles. Holy shit why wasn't this a thing years ago. I love not having a complete clusterfuck of carts down the aisle...now it actually flows. Sure, drawback is wanting a single item down an aisle that you might have to walk all the way around for but since the aisles all flow better it is just more steps in my book... time is about the same.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Rasix on June 11, 2020, 02:25:25 PM
And now there's a fire that may force the evacuation of my in-laws (mother, father, sister). So it looks like I may be living with 3 more people and 2 more cats. All without a working washing machine.

I have a feeling I may be sleeping on an inflatable mattress in the (home)office tonight.

This year just keeps pumping out the hits.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: 01101010 on June 11, 2020, 02:28:27 PM
Well I think we only have 2 more Seals to open before it is over... so yay


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Chimpy on June 11, 2020, 02:46:06 PM
Kinda on topic, but my local grocery store has had handheld scanners that you link to when you walk in and scan all your stuff as you go (you can also use your phone with the app if need be). Wife and I haven't used a checkout with a clerk since they started it. Scan, put it in the reusable bag, next aisle.

Thing that really struck me now as opposed to 2019, the stores in the area set up all the aisles as 1-way aisles. Holy shit why wasn't this a thing years ago. I love not having a complete clusterfuck of carts down the aisle...now it actually flows. Sure, drawback is wanting a single item down an aisle that you might have to walk all the way around for but since the aisles all flow better it is just more steps in my book... time is about the same.

All the stores around here have asked people not to bring re-usable bags into the store. And our one store with the scan as you go on your cell phone app still requires you to go to the self-checkout lane to pay/bag your stuff.

And yeah, 1-way aisles are kinda good. But stores need to be re-designed to properly have the 1-way thing really work for me.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on June 11, 2020, 02:46:52 PM
I had to get gas the other day any everyone was wearing masks. Also plexiglass.

Don't clump cities and states together.
You can clump all of South Carolina together.  Some individuals are exceptions, but all the cities seem to have high percentages of people that either don't believe COVID is real, believe they're not going to get it because God is protecting them/will see them through, or understand that they (and the people they most care about) are in low risk categories and don't give a shit about others.  

It is hard to want to forge new friendships in new communities when your first sixth months there are filled with people showing their true stripes.  COVID and the recent BLM movement are making a lot of things clear.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: 01101010 on June 11, 2020, 03:14:51 PM
All the stores around here have asked people not to bring re-usable bags into the store. And our one store with the scan as you go on your cell phone app still requires you to go to the self-checkout lane to pay/bag your stuff.

And yeah, 1-way aisles are kinda good. But stores need to be re-designed to properly have the 1-way thing really work for me.

There was a push to discourage re-usable bags in all the stores around here, but only insofar as those people using regular checkouts. Scan, bag, and go is pretty much exempt as we never have anyone touch our stuff.

All this being said, western PA seems to think everything is ok now so everything is switching back to business as usual.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Salamok on June 11, 2020, 04:28:13 PM
I like how the Austin recovery statistics were "transitioned" at the beginning of the month.  So now we only have 821 Active cases of covid! somehow this is supposed to jive with the thousand new cases that were reported within the last 12 days...


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on June 11, 2020, 05:13:49 PM
Where do you see that 821 figure? On the Austin dashboard it's showing 4109 cases right now for the entire county.

https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/39e4f8d4acb0433baae6d15a931fa984


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Salamok on June 11, 2020, 05:19:29 PM
In the new cases per day pane switch the view to "Cumulative cases, recoveries and active cases".


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on June 11, 2020, 05:38:42 PM
Gotcha, so they made the change (https://www.austintexas.gov/news/austin-public-health-makes-changes-how-recovered-cases-are-determined) to be consistent with the rest of the state. The white total reported line does still seem to be tracking the daily new case amounts. The yellow active cases line post-adjustment is increasing less than the daily new case amount but that could just be verification lag.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Salamok on June 11, 2020, 05:53:31 PM
I just don't see how it can be remotely accurate unless the new cases they are testing are already almost recovered.  Just add up the new cases reported each day and you only have to go back 10 or 11 days to exceed 821.   


edit - That said I like the idea and it has been somewhat missing from all the early data they just might have gone too far with it in search of palatable statistics.  Pretty sure you could make a general statement that hey if you tested positive for Corona and we haven't heard from you in X days and you aren't dead then it is fairly accurate to say you have recovered.  Unfortunately I'm thinking X should be more like 30 or 45 and they seem to be thinking it is 10.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Chimpy on June 11, 2020, 05:56:27 PM
They may be considering "active" to only be hospitalizations (not just ICU).


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Salamok on June 11, 2020, 05:59:28 PM
They may be considering "active" to only be hospitalizations (not just ICU).

nope they have a dashboard for hospitalized and it is a bit over 100 nowhere near 821.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Rendakor on June 11, 2020, 06:25:08 PM
Our grocery stores are theoretically one-way aisles too, but not everyone is really complying. Masks are still mandatory at least, although the number of people wearing them wrong is always frightening.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on June 11, 2020, 06:38:24 PM
No fucking idea how our grocery stores work.  I'm having things delivered. 


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: 01101010 on June 11, 2020, 08:05:30 PM
No fucking idea how our grocery stores work.  I'm having things delivered. 

Wife and I don't really trust other people to pick out produce or meat for us... and that is like 80% of our shopping list. Only things we use the pickup service or delivery is for baking ingredients and liquids like milk or soda.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on June 11, 2020, 08:10:30 PM
No fucking idea how our grocery stores work.  I'm having things delivered. 
Wife and I don't really trust other people to pick out produce or meat for us... and that is like 80% of our shopping list. Only things we use the pickup service or delivery is for baking ingredients and liquids like milk or soda.
We grow a lot of our own produce (the ones that are hard to get in quality at a store - tomatoes, etc...) , and we're getting big purchases of meats from Costco - probably not getting the best cuts, but I'd rather do that than take the store risks.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: NowhereMan on June 12, 2020, 09:17:04 AM
So I'm going in today to for an antibody test as I've volunteered to donate plasma based on having had symptoms. I guess I get to find out if I've had this thing with reasonable certainty and if so I'll be hopefully helping out people who get it worse than I had.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Ruvaldt on June 12, 2020, 11:32:47 PM
Mask wearing in Texas and South Carolina is optional. Hence the reason why so many aren't. And of course Austin is Austin, and I'm assuming Houston is probably similar.


Hardly anyone wears masks in Dallas.  It's dumb.  I only leave the house once every two weeks so I can record some voice overs in our sound booth at work, which is fortunately empty.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on June 17, 2020, 09:20:45 AM
So what are people doing for masks? I've tried a bunch, the initial homemade ones from crafty types in the area were terrible. Got in a few from China with ports and neoprene, but they were garbage quality. So far Vistaprint has been the best I've seen. Just got them in and the first day I wore it to work everyone went to order one, so it's the current winner. Going to get in a couple Lands' End masks by the weekend.

I'm down with the snakeskin print  :drill:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on June 17, 2020, 09:27:40 AM
We've made a few here at home that are ok, we bought a few that are pretty and work well enough. I'm getting better at making them--I got some better wire and filter material. Going to try a new batch this weekend.

My painting respirator is what I use if I'm going shopping still but I need to replace the filters soon.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on June 17, 2020, 02:46:29 PM
I have a bunch of masks I'd accumulated before this all started (thanks wildfires, home remodeling and Caltrain diesel fumes!). Currently I use a 3M N95 8511 mask (https://www.3m.com/3M/en_US/company-us/all-3m-products/~/3M-Particulate-Respirator-8511-N95-80-EA-Case/?N=5002385+8709322+8711405+8720539+8720774+3294780243&preselect=8720542+8729349&rt=rud) with the valve taped off as my weekly grocery shopping mask. I've also been sporadically stockpiling various other masks as I see them become available at non-outrageous markup prices, just in case.

If you want something that offers a bit more protection than a cloth face mask and you don't have a big head/face, you can try a cloth mask that has a pocket inside (https://smile.amazon.com/gp/product/B086MTX1KW/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o06_s00) to fit a PM2.5 particulate filter (https://smile.amazon.com/gp/product/B086QSY5C1/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o08_s00). These are popular in China because of the heavy air pollution over there.

If you want better protection than that you'll want a KN95 or FFP2 mask (the Chinese and European equivalents of N95 masks) if you can find them at non-outrageous markups.

In terms of markups right now imported China-made isolation (surgical) masks of questionable quality are going for about US$0.50 each right now for masks that ship quickly (you can get them a lot cheaper if you are willing to wait a few months for them arrive by sea). In comparison I bought 300 isolation masks of the exact type used at Stanford Hospital for $25.00 ($0.083/ea) a few years back. KN95/FFP2 masks of questionable quality are going for about $5.00/ea in quantity right now. Fall of last year I bought a box of 10 of the above 3M N95 8511 masks for the remodeling project for ~$15.00 ($1.50/ea).


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on June 18, 2020, 05:07:29 AM
So what are people doing for masks? I've tried a bunch, the initial homemade ones from crafty types in the area were terrible. Got in a few from China with ports and neoprene, but they were garbage quality. So far Vistaprint has been the best I've seen. Just got them in and the first day I wore it to work everyone went to order one, so it's the current winner. Going to get in a couple Lands' End masks by the weekend.

I'm down with the snakeskin print  :drill:

This is what I use in the grocery story.  It keeps everyone at least 10 feet away from me, which is the goal in the first place.

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0793NZMQ5/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o01_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Salamok on June 18, 2020, 03:00:29 PM
I have been reusing the same N95 mask I have had sitting in a drawer for 2 years for my once every 10 days or so foray out into the world.  It is wildly uncomfortable but I just see that as encouragement to hurry the eff up and get back home.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Draegan on June 18, 2020, 03:53:08 PM
There anything out there about quest diagnostic anti body tests that are positive yet? My parents both have them and I don't know what the means for re-integrating with them.

No idea when it'll be "safe" to have the grand parents back in the kids' lives.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on June 18, 2020, 04:05:39 PM
My lay opinion is they should still get PCR tests to check if they still have the virus.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Draegan on June 18, 2020, 04:12:02 PM
My lay opinion is they should still get PCR tests to check if they still have the virus.


A week prior to my father being tested positive for antibodies he was in the hospital and tested negative for covid. Not sure what test they were using.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on June 18, 2020, 07:25:38 PM
So it's probably okay for him to visit then, though again like we've mentioned above those tests can still give false negatives so there's still some risk involved.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on June 19, 2020, 08:52:27 AM
The mask thing is getting tense at work.

Right wing propaganda is really strong, apparently.

The interesting thing is the breakdown of compliance/belief: only one of the professional, salaried staff is on the fence about masks (but complies begrudgingly). Only one of the unskilled wage staff is happily complying, teh rest range from begrudging to flouting compliance at every turn.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Draegan on June 21, 2020, 03:19:26 PM
Our whole family (and my parents) are getting tested this week (nasal swab). Once we get results we're going to mingle. Should be fun.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Rasix on June 21, 2020, 11:27:14 PM
Steve Bannon may have caused me to get exposed to covid. I wish I were joking. This fucking year.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on June 22, 2020, 08:06:03 AM
Did you drive a stake through his bloated, festering heart? Because I've heard that works.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Surlyboi on June 22, 2020, 11:41:23 AM
So what are people doing for masks? I've tried a bunch, the initial homemade ones from crafty types in the area were terrible. Got in a few from China with ports and neoprene, but they were garbage quality. So far Vistaprint has been the best I've seen. Just got them in and the first day I wore it to work everyone went to order one, so it's the current winner. Going to get in a couple Lands' End masks by the weekend.

I'm down with the snakeskin print  :drill:

This is what I use in the grocery story.  It keeps everyone at least 10 feet away from me, which is the goal in the first place.

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0793NZMQ5/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o01_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1

Why does that not surprise me?


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Cyrrex on June 22, 2020, 12:01:06 PM
So what are people doing for masks? I've tried a bunch, the initial homemade ones from crafty types in the area were terrible. Got in a few from China with ports and neoprene, but they were garbage quality. So far Vistaprint has been the best I've seen. Just got them in and the first day I wore it to work everyone went to order one, so it's the current winner. Going to get in a couple Lands' End masks by the weekend.

I'm down with the snakeskin print  :drill:

This is what I use in the grocery story.  It keeps everyone at least 10 feet away from me, which is the goal in the first place.

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0793NZMQ5/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o01_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1

Why does that not surprise me?

Is it because you get the same white supremacy vibe from that mask that I do?  I mean, maybe that is not fair, but it is my visceral reaction to seeing that mask.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Rasix on June 22, 2020, 06:58:55 PM
Guy that may have infected my sister-in-law (not Steve Bannon himself) is now on a ventilator. Yikes.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on June 22, 2020, 07:48:57 PM
I hope he's not bald and type A blood type (seriously).


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Rasix on June 22, 2020, 07:50:20 PM
He's bald and old. Apparently he had also just gotten a root canal.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Surlyboi on June 22, 2020, 10:22:24 PM
So what are people doing for masks? I've tried a bunch, the initial homemade ones from crafty types in the area were terrible. Got in a few from China with ports and neoprene, but they were garbage quality. So far Vistaprint has been the best I've seen. Just got them in and the first day I wore it to work everyone went to order one, so it's the current winner. Going to get in a couple Lands' End masks by the weekend.

I'm down with the snakeskin print  :drill:

This is what I use in the grocery story.  It keeps everyone at least 10 feet away from me, which is the goal in the first place.

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0793NZMQ5/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o01_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1

Why does that not surprise me?

Is it because you get the same white supremacy vibe from that mask that I do?  I mean, maybe that is not fair, but it is my visceral reaction to seeing that mask.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EXHKS7RWoAouckM?format=jpg&name=small)

Same fucking energy. He either needs to yell, “True Sons” or start sporting a Hawaiian shirt with his mask to complete the look.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Draegan on June 22, 2020, 10:37:22 PM
The wife and I are getting a COVID nose swab test tomorrow. My parents are getting them as well this week. If we're all negative we're getting together next weekend. I'm looking forward to it. First outside contact we've all had in three months.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Rasix on June 22, 2020, 11:04:02 PM
False negatives exist, ya know.  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on June 23, 2020, 07:31:02 PM
Slog 100% is wearing speed shades in at least on Facebook avatar since that shit launched


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on June 24, 2020, 08:01:23 AM
Slog 100% is wearing speed shades in at least on Facebook avatar since that shit launched

Sadly, this has been my facebook avatar for years, only because the only sunglasses I can wear on my big head are Ray Bans.


(https://i.imgur.com/oyXME6Ql.jpg)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Hammond on June 24, 2020, 09:30:49 AM
So up here in Washington State as of Friday we are going to start requiring masks when you are out in public. The is potential of fines attached if you do not comply. In my red corner of the state people are flipping out about personal rights. This is the same corner that has the worst increases in infections.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/23/politics/washington-state-coronavirus-masks/index.html


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Chimpy on June 24, 2020, 09:38:46 AM
That is a good step, but will the local authorities where people are screaming about FREEDUMB enforce it?


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on June 24, 2020, 09:51:03 AM
It's not even just 'personal rights', I commonly hear the 'building the immune system' line of reasoning. We're not dealing with intelligent people here, and they don't have a shred of information literacy. It's especially maddening to those of us who work in libraries, where the entire job is about information literacy.

But good job finally requiring masks 5 months later?


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: 01101010 on June 24, 2020, 10:05:02 AM
Well at least they are backing the evolutionary aspects of extinction events. The only ones getting out unscathed are those that are asymptomatic and hopefully have no effects of this later on. The rest die off because they are too weak. It's pure science guys!!  We should be encouraging them to embrace it!   :why_so_serious:



Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Hammond on June 24, 2020, 12:35:31 PM
As far as the enforcement of wearing a mask goes I suspect that most of the local officials will be forced into enforcing it. The numbers are getting pretty bad in a few of the counties and they have already ran out of hospital space. They are shipping people elsewhere throughout the state right now but that is just a band-aid fix. At some point they are going to be forced into enforcing it.

I mentioned in the other thread that they can actually start requiring masks because you can actually buy them now. I think that is why California and Washington are starting to enforce it. The company I work for was trying to source masks and it was damn near impossible to get anything at any quantity up til a month ago.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: 01101010 on June 24, 2020, 12:48:10 PM
On a more serious note... Here in Allegheny County, we were pretty on point with focusing on social distancing and limiting contacts and non-essential activities. That was back starting in March and we got the initial numbers and they didn't really rise like other places. March turned into May and people were getting increasing pissy about things and since cases weren't going up around here, we moved to a more cautionary stance which they chucklefucks took to mean everything is back to normal and only the idiots are still social distancing and wearing masks. So of course, now the county is experiencing an uptick in cases reported. Only thing that is a little fuzzy here is if testing has gone up proportionally or if it has stayed the same.

This is really fascinating to my former self who was knee deep in my graduate work in medical sociology. While that didn't pan out, I am still intrigued by the whole process of collective action both to be ultra-cautious but then completely abandon it once the collective started getting tired of it.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on June 24, 2020, 01:19:06 PM
The amazing part to me is that despite living in a deep red nest of chucklenuts, there are only currently 13 cases in hospitals in our county, and 10 of those are from nursing homes.

Lots of contact tracing going on here, though. That's been making a huge difference as even the chuckletards in their typical cognitive dissonance are following the exposure announcements and talking about getting tested if they've been in those locations at those times.

The whole thing is very surreal.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: DevilsAdvocate25 on June 24, 2020, 01:54:11 PM
So up here in Washington State as of Friday we are going to start requiring masks when you are out in public. The is potential of fines attached if you do not comply. In my red corner of the state people are flipping out about personal rights. This is the same corner that has the worst increases in infections.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/23/politics/washington-state-coronavirus-masks/index.html

This sounds like a good plan, although i am concerned it could be used like stop and frisk. Ignore the white people flagrantly disregarding the rules and stick it to the darkies because they aren't wearing their mask correctly and could possibly be hiding a gun under it.

Lots of contact tracing going on here, though.

My son mentioned to me yesterday that Apple has instituted the ability to do contact tracing through their phones. More information can be found here: https://www.apple.com/covid19/contacttracing (https://www.apple.com/covid19/contacttracing)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: calapine on June 27, 2020, 11:50:13 PM
Can we have a moment of silence please:


(https://i.imgur.com/Iuutk0B.jpg)


Honestly, I can only hope they are just social media savvy and are trying to get viral. If not...  :oh_i_see:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on June 28, 2020, 12:16:54 AM
THE ONLY WAY SHE CAN EAT FAJITAS

imagine typing that for real


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on June 28, 2020, 01:44:01 AM
I'm certainly HOPING they go viral.  :why_so_serious:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Salamok on June 28, 2020, 05:45:20 PM
Wife is on mandatory quarantine from work after minimal contact with a coworker who tested positive, she was taking it pretty well "only was in the room with her for a moment and didn't get that close"  then I ruined it for her and pointed out that said person probably caught it from someone else at work....


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on June 30, 2020, 02:07:08 PM
I saw this blog linked on SA so I don't now how qualified this guy is to speak on Vaccines, but he goes into a lot of detail.  Lot's of companies trying lots of different things, and the Chinese don't seem to hesitate when it comes to sending drugs to trial as early as they can.

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/06/29/coronavirus-vaccine-update-june-29



Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on June 30, 2020, 02:23:46 PM
He's a good person to follow though he isn't an expert on vaccines.

If you like podcasts, there's one run by a virologist that's become very popular thanks to COVID-19: https://www.virology.ws/


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Gimfain on July 01, 2020, 01:45:59 AM
Immunity to COVID-19 is probably higher than tests have shown (https://news.ki.se/immunity-to-covid-19-is-probably-higher-than-tests-have-shown)
New research from Karolinska Institutet and Karolinska University Hospital shows that many people with mild or asymptomatic COVID-19 demonstrate so-called T-cell-mediated immunity to the new coronavirus, even if they have not tested positively for antibodies. According to the researchers, this means that public immunity is probably higher than antibody tests suggest.

Our results indicate that roughly twice as many people have developed T-cell immunity compared with those who we can detect antibodies in.”


Its a fairly small sample of bit over 200 and it hasn't been peer reviewed, but it could be an explanation why antibodies result from tests done world wide has been so low.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Salamok on July 01, 2020, 02:25:03 PM
In further news city of Austin data (https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/39e4f8d4acb0433baae6d15a931fa984) is now at 2400+ new cases reported in the last 4 days and yet miraculously only has a bit over 2800 active cases, must be some miracle cure no one is telling anyone about that gets you symptom free in 5 days.  Seriously if the mandate on how to calculate these "statistics" is coming down from the Feds then they are basically telling everyone to cook the books.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on July 01, 2020, 02:54:01 PM
I'm feeling a sense of deja vu (http://forums.f13.net/index.php?topic=26159.msg1542616#msg1542616) for some reason. In any case, yes their active cases count seems to backasswards* but I wouldn't let that discourage you too much as long as the new cases are accounted for somewhere in their combined graph.

* The yellow "active cases" line seems to be derived from the white reported cases minus the purple *estimated* recoveries, rather than being a direct count. The switch to estimated recoveries was made as I explained previously to conform to the state standards. It doesn't appear to be a Fed thing.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on July 01, 2020, 08:45:05 PM
We should be honestly be open to the possibility that fatality/serious cases are going to start to lag behind testing/positives in a way that seems unlike the early epidemic because the most vulnerable have already been exposed disproportionately in the early epidemic and died in higher numbers than what will follow. By no means does that mean everybody should go to a giant beerfest on a river in Arizona and have anonymous sex with young adults or whatever, but...


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: MahrinSkel on July 01, 2020, 09:01:17 PM
This hasn't killed anywhere near enough olds for that to be true for that reason. The recent bounce seems to skew lower in age, so that may drive the fatality rate down for a while.

If the numbers are real, and we've got good cause to believe that at least a couple of states (AZ and FL) are cooking the books.

--Dave


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on July 01, 2020, 09:27:48 PM
Immunity to COVID-19 is probably higher than tests have shown (https://news.ki.se/immunity-to-covid-19-is-probably-higher-than-tests-have-shown)
New research from Karolinska Institutet and Karolinska University Hospital shows that many people with mild or asymptomatic COVID-19 demonstrate so-called T-cell-mediated immunity to the new coronavirus, even if they have not tested positively for antibodies. According to the researchers, this means that public immunity is probably higher than antibody tests suggest.

Our results indicate that roughly twice as many people have developed T-cell immunity compared with those who we can detect antibodies in.”


Its a fairly small sample of bit over 200 and it hasn't been peer reviewed, but it could be an explanation why antibodies result from tests done world wide has been so low.
As is often the case with health and medical research, the PR surrounding this research and the research itself are way out of sync with each other. The abstract of the article makes no mention of SARS-CoV-2 antibody detection compared to SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells. The data they are touting is buried in a figure near the end of the paper (Figure 4G, bottom right corner). They don't even make mention of it in the main text of the research itself (they do mention vaguely in the text accompanying the figures).

Essentially what they found is that for one of the cohorts they studied -- Swedish blood donors -- the antibody positivity rate (4 out of 31 people) was less than half that of the SARS-CoV-2-specific T-cells response detection rate (9 out of the same 31 people). This is how they came up with the "roughly twice as many people" in their PR. The other cohorts either showed smaller differences or no difference at all between the antibody and T-cells detection rates. And yet, somehow, based on this one very specific cohort they've somehow concluded that:
Quote
Our results indicate that roughly twice as many people have developed T-cell immunity compared with those who we can detect antibodies in.
Which is not what their research shows if you look at the data for all of the cohorts.

Another issue with the paper is that they don't include confidence intervals for their antibody testing results. These tests can result in both false positives and false negatives. They did perform two separate tests on each sample but that still doesn't guarantee zero false negatives and positives.

Their tests don't also prove that the samples with the SARS-CoV-2-specific T-cell response without corresponding antibodies means those individuals have immunity going forward. There's some indirect evidence that that may be the case but their PR calls it "T-cell immunity" implying that these people are immune.

Edit: this is the paper: Robust T cell immunity in convalescent individuals with asymptomatic or mild COVID-19 (https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.29.174888v1)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on July 01, 2020, 09:31:22 PM
We should be honestly be open to the possibility that fatality/serious cases are going to start to lag behind testing/positives in a way that seems unlike the early epidemic because the most vulnerable have already been exposed disproportionately in the early epidemic and died in higher numbers than what will follow. By no means does that mean everybody should go to a giant beerfest on a river in Arizona and have anonymous sex with young adults or whatever, but...
Yes there's plenty of anecdotal evidence that the average age of those getting infected now is lower than those initially so that will bring the Case Fatality Rate down when all cases and ages are combined together.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Rasix on July 02, 2020, 01:02:43 PM
Ran into my first two Covid Karens today. I was at the nearby cafe ordering takeout (they only have outdoor seating, but fuck no, I'm not doing that), and there were two early-to-mid thirties women "just browsing" without masks on. One was talking really loud on the phone. "We have medical conditions" was their response when asked to put on a mask. Then the one on the phone was laughing about it on her still very loud phone call. They then proceeded just to walk around the interior of the small cafe. I think they were just fishing for some sort of confrontation. Not your typical Karen look, but the one of the phone looked exceptionally crazy. Like "5G is going to give us uber covid" crazy.

Ohh well, that was rather infuriating. I'm not sure what a small cafe is supposed to do other than ask them to leave, but they probably didn't want the ensuing logical calama-fuck that was bound to occur. That place is often frequented by some of the older local population here.  Other than that specific situation, people have been taking things more seriously. 


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on July 02, 2020, 01:40:48 PM
Had to go out and get an oil change yesterday. As I walked in the place, I notice there's a warning sign on every door talking about health and masks, etc.

Not one person besides me, customer or employee was wearing a mask.

Fuck this entire place.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on July 02, 2020, 01:56:52 PM
Mask-wearing is definitely up where I live. But people are still super-inconsistent about physical space and distancing.

I think some of it is people consciously trying to communicate that they could give a shit and they're only wearing the mask because they don't want a confrontation at the door of the market or what have you. But I think some of it is that there are people who are *always* bad at understanding where their bodies are in relationship to other peoples' bodies. I mean, in the supermarket, there has always been a subset of people--maybe 30%, many of them middle-aged or older women?--who just do not have any apparent sense that they're blocking the aisle or that while they decide which brand of whatever they want to buy while they stand a foot away from a section of product, no one else can get in there, or that there's a line at the deli counter. That comes from a weird combination of subconscious sociopathy (other people don't really exist for them) and just plain cluelessness (oh, am I actually in the way? I didn't realize). I think a lot of men are way more aware of their body's proximity to other bodies, especially men--you learn pretty quickly that some men are gonna get angry or aggressive if you block their way or touch them accidentally or move too slowly for their tastes, etc. so you pay more attention in these settings.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Mandella on July 02, 2020, 02:35:58 PM
I have a dog like that. A not at all dumb otherwise Chocolate Lab, but he has no idea he has a body. Can't figure out that he needs to move his head to get his food poured into his dish, just stands in a door waiting for you to walk though him, and will often try to walk through areas too narrow for him. None of the other dogs are that clueless, and often look at him like "you dumbass, MOVE!"

Doesn't have much to do with Covid 19, other than to agree that some mammals just don't get body awareness.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Hawkbit on July 02, 2020, 10:56:46 PM
This entire experience is shining light on those that were never told "no".


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Phildo on July 03, 2020, 06:06:05 PM
Their religion is solipsism.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Gimfain on July 06, 2020, 03:08:13 AM
Read an article based on an extremely limited chinese study of 37 who had fallen ill and recovered, plus 37 positive patients that never developed symptoms. Within 8 weeks 40% of asymptomatic patients and 13% of those with symptoms had antibodies levels that could no longer be detected.
Clinical and immunological assessment of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0965-6)

It says nothing about immunity but it sounds like its going to be hard to achieve any sort of herd immunity over a longer period of time through infection or vaccines unless there is something scientists are missing.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Chimpy on July 06, 2020, 07:33:17 AM
There have also been a few studies that surmise that T-Cell response and not antibodies may have the greater impact on this virus.

It is still too early to tell what any immunity is, and how long it lasts.

Remember folks, we are talking about a disease that has only been recognized as being a particular virus for barely over 6 months.

I know 6 months is an eternity in 2020 and all, but it will be literally years before we know if immunity is even really possible.

Though I am of the opinion that having survived the Spanish Flu makes your chances of survival way higher than normal. I have seen several stories now of people 102-106 who survived having Covid.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on July 06, 2020, 08:30:18 AM
At this point, how good are the antibody tests?  Are the results reliable enough to make it worthwhile to get one?


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: eldaec on July 06, 2020, 08:39:57 AM
The tests that process samples in a lab are supposed to be accurate.

But nobody has a fucking clue whether it means anything.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tebonas on July 06, 2020, 09:09:38 AM
So this weekend I heard that the US still doesn't to pool testing because there aren't rules in place for that yet after months of Covid. I'm not surprised anymore you don't get shit done. An idiot president really brings the whole house down.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on July 06, 2020, 09:12:57 AM
Which is not just the test but the other uncertainties as just mentioned by Gimfain.

We don't even have a great understanding just yet of what's happened with people who've recovered and are having no further symptoms (or why some people continue to experience symptoms for weeks or months).

----------

The US federal government is driven exclusively by Trump's understanding of what he needs for his re-election, and he's decided that what he needs is to pretend coronavirus doesn't exist. So yeah, there will be no national rules, procedures or infrastructures until January 2021 at the earliest.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on July 06, 2020, 09:28:54 AM
Speaking of this, despite the severity of the Spanish outbreak earlier this year, a new study shows that only 5% of the Spanish population seem to have evidence of an antibody response to covid-19. There wasn't an appreciably higher indication of antibody formation in places that had been covid-19 hotspots.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31483-5/fulltext

So we're really facing a bad scenario here.

1. It may be that people who don't get sick from covid-19 aren't being protected primarily by antibody formation but simply because they're not very vulnerable for other reasons that don't lend themselves to population-level immunization (whether via vaccine or exposure). Meaning covid-19 may well become endemic and continue to attack vulnerable populations for years to come.

2. Even if the people working on vaccines feel like they've got a working version, it may be hard to measure its efficacy and it may not last for very long.

3. People who were exposed and were not affected/were asymptomatic may be infected more severely on re-exposure.

4. If the virus goes fully endemic, it may have further opportunities to mutate and adapt to human beings as a vector. On the other hand, maybe coronaviruses aren't built for us--that big RNA genome that they all have may be because they have evolved to bats, who have very unusual immune systems.

5. The upshot is that we had probably start planning for a future where covid-19 joins the family of recurrent scourges of human societies. I think this means that a lot of resources should also be going right now into therapeutic strategies.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on July 06, 2020, 02:32:26 PM
Read an article based on an extremely limited chinese study of 37 who had fallen ill and recovered, plus 37 positive patients that never developed symptoms. Within 8 weeks 40% of asymptomatic patients and 13% of those with symptoms had antibodies levels that could no longer be detected.
Clinical and immunological assessment of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0965-6)

It says nothing about immunity but it sounds like its going to be hard to achieve any sort of herd immunity over a longer period of time through infection or vaccines unless there is something scientists are missing.
There have also been a few studies that surmise that T-Cell response and not antibodies may have the greater impact on this virus.

It is still too early to tell what any immunity is, and how long it lasts.

Remember folks, we are talking about a disease that has only been recognized as being a particular virus for barely over 6 months.

I know 6 months is an eternity in 2020 and all, but it will be literally years before we know if immunity is even really possible.
Immunity is possible but it is still unknown how long it might last either if "naturally" acquired or with any of the many upcoming vaccines being developed. It may also depend on the severity of the case. I.e. those with no or mild symptoms may not be immune as long as those with worse symptoms.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on July 06, 2020, 03:02:44 PM
Speaking of this, despite the severity of the Spanish outbreak earlier this year, a new study shows that only 5% of the Spanish population seem to have evidence of an antibody response to covid-19. There wasn't an appreciably higher indication of antibody formation in places that had been covid-19 hotspots.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31483-5/fulltext

So we're really facing a bad scenario here.

1. It may be that people who don't get sick from covid-19 aren't being protected primarily by antibody formation but simply because they're not very vulnerable for other reasons that don't lend themselves to population-level immunization (whether via vaccine or exposure). Meaning covid-19 may well become endemic and continue to attack vulnerable populations for years to come.

2. Even if the people working on vaccines feel like they've got a working version, it may be hard to measure its efficacy and it may not last for very long.

3. People who were exposed and were not affected/were asymptomatic may be infected more severely on re-exposure.

4. If the virus goes fully endemic, it may have further opportunities to mutate and adapt to human beings as a vector. On the other hand, maybe coronaviruses aren't built for us--that big RNA genome that they all have may be because they have evolved to bats, who have very unusual immune systems.

5. The upshot is that we had probably start planning for a future where covid-19 joins the family of recurrent scourges of human societies. I think this means that a lot of resources should also be going right now into therapeutic strategies.
You are presuming too much from this one study. Even though Spain was hard hit by the virus we're still only talking about 0.6% of the population with confirmed cases (298,869 confirmed / 46,755,070 population). The fact that this sampling showed that the actual infected % was about 10x the confirmed cases is useful information but you can't assume that achieving population-wide immunity is therefore impossible because only 5% have had it now or that that 5% number was much larger at some point but most of those infected no longer have detectable antibodies.

If you look at the seroprevalence numbers of smaller populations that have been heavily infected that have been tested the numbers are much much higher. E.g. in the Bergamo region in Italy it's estimated that 57% have been infected (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-antibodies/over-half-of-people-tested-in-italys-bergamo-have-covid-19-antibodies-idUSKBN23F2JV). Roughly 25% of NYC may have been infected (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/roughly-25percent-of-new-york-city-has-probably-been-infected-with-coronavirus-dr-scott-gottlieb-says.html) as well.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on July 06, 2020, 05:25:48 PM
At this point, how good are the antibody tests?  Are the results reliable enough to make it worthwhile to get one?
It depends. When the test is performed (i.e. how many days post-initial infection) and which test is used can both affect the results. And there's probably others things as well that can affect things (e.g. tests via blood drawn in a hospital might be more accurate than a pin-prick blood sample test).

The FDA has been independently testing antibody tests. You can peruse the results here:

https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/emergency-situations-medical-devices/eua-authorized-serology-test-performance

If you read the "About this page" stuff it discusses how population "prevalence" affects the actual false positive and false negative performance of tests. They don't really explain why that is but this Scientific American article does:

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/coronavirus-antibody-tests-have-a-mathematical-pitfall/

Essentially the less prevalent the virus is in a population the more likely a positive test is a false positive. The same is true with negative tests but reversed (and to a much lesser extent). I.e. the less prevalent the virus is in a population the more likely a negative test is a true negative.

So basically you want a test with both a high PPV (Positive Predictive Value) and high NPV (Negative Predictive Value) at whatever prevalence % you believe your area is at right now. Ideally both would be at 100% (estimated) but note that these tests also have a confidence interval so you also want one with a very narrow CI.

As for when the test is performed, according to this Cochrane review:

Summary: https://www.cochrane.org/news/new-cochrane-review-assesses-how-accurate-antibody-tests-are-detecting-covid-19
Study: https://www.cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi/10.1002/14651858.CD013652/full

the tests in the studies they reviewed were most accurate between 15 and 35 days after symptoms first began. Sooner than that and the tests were less accurate and there wasn't enough data to analyze the accuracy after 35 days.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on July 06, 2020, 07:38:38 PM
Are there working vaccines that induce T-cell responses rather than being built off of antibody responses? (If it turns out that the Spanish results are because most of the recovered/exposed people were protected by T-cell rather than antibody responses?)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on July 06, 2020, 07:57:22 PM
The Oxford one does in pigs. Does that count? https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.20.159715v1


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on July 07, 2020, 11:40:16 AM
Guess we'll find out!

Interesting piece in the WaPo by a guy in one of the vaccine trials, by the way, just describing the experience.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Gimfain on July 09, 2020, 03:32:21 AM
2 months and my sense of smell is still mostly gone apart from noticing strong perfume or horrid stench. Sense of taste have gradually returned but last days it suddenly disappeared which coincided with grass allergy. I still haven't developed bat sonar to compensate.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: eldaec on July 09, 2020, 09:05:34 AM
Fucking comics lying to us.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Gimfain on July 09, 2020, 11:30:03 AM
Read some statistics on the 30-day mortality for covid-19 patients at ICU. It was 34% for patients that first got treated in march, it dropped down to 19% in april and in may it was down to a mere 4%.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on July 09, 2020, 11:54:50 AM
Is that age-adjusted?


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on July 09, 2020, 12:23:31 PM
Read some statistics on the 30-day mortality for covid-19 patients at ICU. It was 34% for patients that first got treated in march, it dropped down to 19% in april and in may it was down to a mere 4%.

That's really good news.  Hopefully they can continue that downward trend.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Gimfain on July 09, 2020, 12:55:37 PM
Is that age-adjusted?

No. its based on total ICU patients. Its important to know that extremely few old people get intensive care treatment due to extremely high mortality. For ages 80+ that received ICU treatment, women had 88% mortality, men 66%.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on July 09, 2020, 06:21:20 PM
This reminds me of the theory among medical historians that the 1918-1920 pandemic faded partly because physicians got much better at treating it and because with the end of the war had the resources to treat it in a focused way.

The way out on this may not be a vaccine--it may just be a far better clinical understanding of what's happening when someone gets acutely ill from covid-19 and a far better strategy for treating it. The worst thing the Chinese government may have done is pass on an idea that covid-19 was closely akin to MERS and SARS in clinical terms, such that everyone got ready to treat a severe respiratory disease that presented like a pneumonia, when in fact they were facing a disease that caused respiratory symptoms for completely different reasons.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on July 11, 2020, 03:58:46 PM
Depressing but on the money interview with Larry Brilliant on where we're at in July 2020.

https://www.wired.com/story/larry-brilliant-on-how-well-are-we-fighting-covid-19/


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Samwise on July 11, 2020, 04:31:10 PM
Depressing but on the money interview with Larry Brilliant on where we're at in July 2020.

https://www.wired.com/story/larry-brilliant-on-how-well-are-we-fighting-covid-19/

That was good.  I guess the ray of sunshine is that the experts seem optimistic about us having a vaccine eventually, and by that point odds are we'll have a new president who will have begun to unfuck the country.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: BobtheSomething on July 12, 2020, 02:56:40 PM
I read somewhere that one of the lingering effects of “asymptomatic” Covid 19 is erectile dysfunction.  I don’t know if that’s true, but I bet spreading the word will help with mask compliance.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: jgsugden on July 12, 2020, 03:01:17 PM
Read some statistics on the 30-day mortality for covid-19 patients at ICU. It was 34% for patients that first got treated in march, it dropped down to 19% in april and in may it was down to a mere 4%.
One statistic set I'd like to find is: How long are people in various age groups hospitalized, in ICU, and ventilated - and what is the attached fatality rates for each of those classifications.  I'm hearing a lot of stories about 8 weeks in the hospital (which could be one reason the stats for May admissions might be low - many have not died, yet).

Edit to include the limited I have found: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.30.20084780v3.full.pdf (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.30.20084780v3.full.pdf)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on July 12, 2020, 05:48:35 PM
I've actually read that there have been a few cases of dangerous sustained erections from microclotting in the penis--the kind of thing that threatens your future sexual functioning.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on July 12, 2020, 07:53:39 PM
Yay, Covid wants to blow my dick off.

Fuck everything about 2020.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Gimfain on July 15, 2020, 01:38:32 AM
Read some statistics on the 30-day mortality for covid-19 patients at ICU. It was 34% for patients that first got treated in march, it dropped down to 19% in april and in may it was down to a mere 4%.
Yeah, 4% for may was actually wrong, caused by bug in the system, it was too good to be true. The actual number for may was 19% so not an actual improvement over time.

A university study over flu patients at a hospital (sahlgrenska universitetssjukhuset) found that for 435 laboratory verified flu patients during 2016-2017 that 114 of those cases got the flu at hospital. Its patients that were hospitalized for other illnesses and got the flu symptoms 48 hours or more after they were initially hospitalized.

For covid-19 they found that 10300 people working at healthcare had contracted covid-19 in mid may, which is about half of the confirmed cases in sweden. Sweden did have limited testing availability at the time but during a crisis the most important people ends up ill.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on July 15, 2020, 07:14:48 PM
I stupidly didn't bookmark it, but there were a couple of Twitter accounts I follow reporting today a new study that adds to the evidence that viral load is a key differentiator between serious and mild cases of covid-19--and that while masks don't prevent you from getting an asymptomatic or mild case of covid-19, they do apparently prevent exposure at levels that may be associated with severe or fatal cases. I'll try to track down the study link.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: MahrinSkel on July 15, 2020, 11:44:40 PM
It's fundamental virology, so I'll take your word for it. Exponential curves that start from 1 and from 1^5th are very different things.

--Dave

Edit: And I just realized that should be 10 and 10^5th, because one to the fifth power is still 1.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: calapine on July 16, 2020, 03:30:12 AM
I stupidly didn't bookmark it, but there were a couple of Twitter accounts I follow reporting today a new study that adds to the evidence that viral load is a key differentiator between serious and mild cases of covid-19--and that while masks don't prevent you from getting an asymptomatic or mild case of covid-19, they do apparently prevent exposure at levels that may be associated with severe or fatal cases. I'll try to track down the study link.

Nots sure if it's the study you refer to, but the conclusion is similar:

Quote
Surgical mask partition reduces the risk of non-contact transmission in a golden Syrian hamster model for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)


Surgical mask partition for challenged index hamsters significantly reduced transmission to only 16.7% (2/12, P=0.019) of exposed naïve hamsters. Unlike the severe COVID-19 manifestations of challenged hamsters, infected naïve hamsters had lower clinical scores, milder histopathological changes, and lower viral nucleocapsid antigen expression in respiratory tract tissues.

https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa644/5848814


That aside: I want to see this naive hamsters with surgical masks.  :heart:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on July 16, 2020, 10:24:44 AM
Presumably there's some sophisticated hipster hamsters with stylish respirators being used as a control.



Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Chimpy on July 16, 2020, 12:42:11 PM
It says "partition" so they probably just put a fabric wall between the hamsters.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on July 16, 2020, 01:27:09 PM
That's correct. They were not wearing hamster-sized and shaped masks.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on July 16, 2020, 01:31:15 PM
Well that just seems like a waste of a good opportunity.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on July 16, 2020, 02:50:34 PM
They tried it but half of the hamsters freaked out and started screaming about freedom.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on July 16, 2020, 03:02:41 PM
They tried it but half of the hamsters freaked out and started screaming about freedom.
:rimshot:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on July 28, 2020, 08:05:44 AM
Some interesting stuff about the ACE2 attack vector explaining a lot of the weird symptoms: https://www.ucsf.edu/magazine/covid-body?fbclid=IwAR2T9NdqlshIiYDDj_Xd9U9dt6IInj82CZTwWAbf0Om29-C8NRczXhq3yY0


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Mandella on July 28, 2020, 08:33:37 PM
Some interesting stuff about the ACE2 attack vector explaining a lot of the weird symptoms: https://www.ucsf.edu/magazine/covid-body?fbclid=IwAR2T9NdqlshIiYDDj_Xd9U9dt6IInj82CZTwWAbf0Om29-C8NRczXhq3yY0

Thanks for that link. And it looks like I've let myself get behind the information curve.

Is it generally accepted now that 50 to 80 percent of cases are asymptomatic? That is way more than I remember reading from just a few months ago.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on July 28, 2020, 09:08:38 PM
Some interesting stuff about the ACE2 attack vector explaining a lot of the weird symptoms: https://www.ucsf.edu/magazine/covid-body?fbclid=IwAR2T9NdqlshIiYDDj_Xd9U9dt6IInj82CZTwWAbf0Om29-C8NRczXhq3yY0
Thanks for that link. And it looks like I've let myself get behind the information curve.

Is it generally accepted now that 50 to 80 percent of cases are asymptomatic? That is way more than I remember reading from just a few months ago.
No it's not. That one doctor making that assumption based on that one antibody study in the SF Mission District. The CDC's "best guess", which they don't explain/justify, is 40%. That could be based on testing results in places like Vò, Italy, where most of the population has been tested multiple times and about 40% were asymptomatic.

Edit: here's a review of various studies that measured asymptomatic people:

Annals of Internal Medicine: Prevalence of Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infection (https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-3012)



Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Rasix on August 13, 2020, 12:43:20 PM
My son's baseball league announced they're doing fall ball. Begins in a couple weeks.

Not sure how I feel about this. 95% of the kids are in very large public school districts and Arizona is still Arizona.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on August 13, 2020, 01:27:16 PM
Over the past three weeks, many universities that had previously announced full or partial residential reopenings for September have reversed course and gone to being fully online.

Most small colleges are sticking to whatever they announced in June, though, which is mostly some form of partial or 'hybrid' reopening. I think the large universities just came to the conclusion that there is absolutely no way for them to successfully avoid the spread of covid-19 if they have thousands of undergrads in residence--even the wealthiest of them aren't set up to monitor the comings and goings of students, can't handle the volume of testing required, etc.

I also think some of them have lawyers who said, "You're going to get sued into oblivion if any students, staff or faculty die of covid-19 in a way that's traced to the campus". Penn State tried to pull a fast one by putting a comprehensive waiver of liability deep inside a pledge of responsible conduct that students were expected to sign before coming back (it literally said something like "no matter what, if I get sick from covid-19, I acknowledge that it's my own fault and I hereby agree to forgo any claims of liability") and there were howls of anger from students, parents and legislators. Not long afterwards, Penn State dropped that part and then said, "Hey, know what? let's not have students be in residence..."


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: 01101010 on August 13, 2020, 01:48:58 PM
Pitt is actually having move-in this week and next in a phased system. I guess parents were contacted and given a window to be on campus. I was actually on campus earlier because my pharmacy is there. No parking anywhere for no parents moving any kids in. All the student groups that help with move-ins are no where - just a huge stack of the wheeled laundry bins they use every year in the usual spots. Such a pain in the ass to find available parking for basically no reason as the volume of kids moving back is reduced and they are not moving into the dorms, they are using the campus hotel which has their own parking lot. Typical.

Anyway, driving around the campus more than I usually do because of all that, so many packs of kids all moving in groups around campus - some masks, some not. Some walking around alone, most not. If this is what it is going to be like, looks like my co-workers are not going to be back in the office until a vaccine is out because these future adults are already screwing things up. I'll be shocked if there is not a spike around in both positives and hospitalizations probably end of Sept.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on August 13, 2020, 03:44:24 PM
Pitt's a good example of another thing that made some research-1 universities blink and change course: they're in the middle of cities. It's actually just plausible that a place like Grinnell or Williams can make students be an isolated "cohort"--the town is basically an extension of the college, there's only 2000 students or so there, the setting is intimate enough that you can actually do contact tracing and sort of monitor whether students are doing dumb fucking shit like driving to a rave in Albany or whatever the fuck one would do in Des Moines in a large group of wasted-as-fuck twenty-somethings. Any big university in a city is completely fucked as far as that goes--they can't monitor students and there are a zillion ways for them to infect and be infected.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on August 13, 2020, 04:55:33 PM
On a completely separate subject, just to show you that if you want to be data-driven you have to accept that the road doesn't always go where you expect, here's an interesting analysis of one of our favorite subjects of conversation, Sweden: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2251615-is-swedens-coronavirus-strategy-a-cautionary-tale-or-a-success-story/

Upshot is that there may really be two simultaneous failures in the United States: that mask-wearing and compliance with social distancing was turned into a symbol of sociopolitical loyalty on the right...and that it was turned into a symbol of sociopolitical loyalty on the left. Meaning that it turns out (as has been suggested in previous discussions) that Swedes were essentially practicing social distancing (with the same economic consequences) voluntarily at roughly the same rates as in countries where social distancing was mandated by strong government or regulatory authority. And that maybe Swedes *did* develop some (at yet not well-measured) immunity. And that maybe Sweden's high per-capita death rate was mostly about a single judgmental error, which was to underestimate the vulnerability of elder care.

In the US, of course, I would still argue that this suggests that an administration that emphasized the importance of voluntary controls and acknowledged the liberty or autonomy of citizens but ALSO was absolutely unmistakeably coherent and united in its approach to the disease and strongly recommended distancing, masking, testing, might have cut in half or more the deaths. Maybe Americans are locked into an oppositional death spiral that means that if one group says, "Everyone loves apple pie", the other faction will say "Fuck you, we're going to burn apple pies by their thousands at motorcycle rallies and eat only red velvet cake" but political leadership that fuels that fire guarantees failure and death. If you leave an educated populace to cope with a pandemic while supplying them with trustworthy technical expertise and transparent political leadership, you may get roughly similar outcomes, including that your economy takes a hit because people cut back on their voluntary social interactions and travel.

So the lesson from Sweden may not be "no controls", any more than the lesson from New Zealand is "tight controls". It may be "trust, unity and truthful information".


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: BobtheSomething on August 16, 2020, 01:06:48 AM
My son's baseball league announced they're doing fall ball. Begins in a couple weeks.

Not sure how I feel about this. 95% of the kids are in very large public school districts and Arizona is still Arizona.

Probably sucks for the kids who get permanent lung damage that impairs their game.  Also for the ones who spend the rest of their lives knowing they brought home the disease that killed grandma/grandpa alone and in pain.



Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Rasix on August 26, 2020, 11:09:54 AM
The safety guidelines were put up for baseball, and they're pretty lackluster. They work on the assumption that no one will get sick and no one will go to games/practices while ill. The language is pretty loose as to not mandate masks in almost any situation except perhaps in the dugout.

They're trying, but it just kind of comes up short. You have to be clear about what you're going to do if/when someone gets sick on a team, and they're just dancing around that situation.  :oh_i_see:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on August 27, 2020, 05:09:05 PM
Anybody know anything about a company called Everlywell? I can only find stuff about their post-Shark Tank nutritional test and then a kerfuffle with the FDA in May over a covid-19 test. Nothing since about the reliability of their testing procedure, etc.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on August 27, 2020, 06:05:12 PM
they shouldn't even be "trying"


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Surlyboi on August 27, 2020, 06:11:07 PM
My brother-in-law is a school bus driver in Delaware. He got it within a week of school opening down there. He then, of course gave it to my sister. They’ve both gotten through the worst of it but he’s still on oxygen three weeks later and they’re both experiencing long-haul syndrome after effects (lingering fatigue, foggy heads, etc.)

I’m also worried about the potential other effects, especially since the brother-in-law is diabetic.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on August 27, 2020, 06:35:22 PM
Anybody know anything about a company called Everlywell? I can only find stuff about their post-Shark Tank nutritional test and then a kerfuffle with the FDA in May over a covid-19 test. Nothing since about the reliability of their testing procedure, etc.
According to this (https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-authorizes-first-standalone-home-sample-collection-kit-can-be-used) Everlywell is using Fulgent Therapeutics and Assurance Scientific Laboratories for the actual testing. Fulgent is doing a good job of hiding their internal test results (can't find them at the moment) so I don't know what their internal false positive and false negative rates are. Assurance Scientific Laboratories does publish their internal test data and it looks good (under ideal circumstances):

https://assurancescientificlabs.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/COVID-19_Technical_Bulletin.pdf


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on August 27, 2020, 07:47:02 PM
Thanks, that's useful. I get the need to let testing producers operate under FDA authorization rather than approval, but it still seems to me that should confer an obligation to publication of results on a rolling basis if you're pushing out millions of kits. Especially since this company's previous product (the nutrition thing) got a lot of bad marks for dodgy or inconsistent results.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Chimpy on August 27, 2020, 07:49:11 PM
Thanks, that's useful. I get the need to let testing producers operate under FDA authorization rather than approval, but it still seems to me that should confer an obligation to publication of results on a rolling basis if you're pushing out millions of kits. Especially since this company's previous product (the nutrition thing) got a lot of bad marks for dodgy or inconsistent results.


The FDA just dropped any requirements for EUA on Covid tests last week. There are going to be a lot of fly-by-night testing coming out soon.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on August 27, 2020, 07:54:06 PM
Yes. So now we're going to get bullshit tests done by employers that are on the cheap and unreliable just so they can say they checked off the liability problem. Which will leave anyone who feels they were in a workplace where the employer was utterly negligent having to get entangled in complicated litigation over a decade or more about the reliability of a particular test provider. Rather than having a single national standard or even three or four approved variant tests that have met some standard of reliability. Probably the same when we get to vaccination, if we do, unless we have a new political regime in January.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Gimfain on September 03, 2020, 02:03:21 PM
There were a study made on blood givers and they found out that 7% of blood givers had anti-bodies for covid-19. When doing randomized testing of active covid-19 on 2500 people they found 0 people with current infection. When they did randomized tests in april it was 0.9%, in may it was 0.3%. In the region where I live there isn't anyone hospitalized for covid-19. There were 2492 persons tested (not randomized) for covid-19 two weeks ago and 12 with active infection.

Given how few people have antibodies its due to  mostly voluntary social distancing, local reinforcement of common sense rules and not about herd immunity.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: MahrinSkel on September 03, 2020, 03:44:21 PM
Meanwhile, in the land of the mud people: https://www.kpq.com/coronavirus-updates-university-reports-90-jump-in-cases-on-campus-2/ (https://www.kpq.com/coronavirus-updates-university-reports-90-jump-in-cases-on-campus-2/)

Quote
Sep 02, 6:13 am
Ole Miss reports 20 active outbreaks on campus

The University of Mississippi said it has confirmed at least 481 cases of COVID-19 among students and employees on its Oxford campus since the start of the pandemic.

Of those, 277 are active cases, mostly among students. Over the past seven days, there have been 223 new confirmed cases, an increase of more than 90%. There are currently 20 active outbreaks of three or more cases on campus, most of which are within campus housing, according to data posted on the University of Mississippi’s website.

The public research university in Oxford, Mississippi, known by its nickname Ole Miss, resumed classes on Aug. 24.

According to the student newspaper, The Daily Mississippian, emails were sent out saying residents in on-campus dormitories with a cluster of three or more cases would need to find a place to quarantine. However, some students were urged to return home or isolate themselves off-campus in nearby apartments or hotels due to the limited number of quarantine spaces on campus.

Health officials are concerned this could lead to COVID-19 spreading off-campus among the local community, according to a report by Memphis ABC affiliate WATN-TV.
So, yeah, one week from "Everything will be fine." to "Man, this risk was calculated very badly."

--Dave


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Chimpy on September 03, 2020, 04:38:44 PM
And they are not testing asymptomatic people unless they are a close contact, I am sure.

That case number is likely 10% or less of the actual number of cases around there.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on September 03, 2020, 05:19:38 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/tGDqx6j.png)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on September 03, 2020, 10:16:26 PM
Meanwhile in NY, where we have actual leadership and a functioning government: https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-cuomo-deploys-swat-team-suny-oneonta-contain-covid-19-cluster


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on September 03, 2020, 10:41:40 PM
And they are not testing asymptomatic people unless they are a close contact, I am sure.

That case number is likely 10% or less of the actual number of cases around there.

Sometimes even symptomatic people aren't tested either in this state. Just about everyone here seems to be intent on wearing a mask then completely forgetting the thing exists.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Gimfain on September 10, 2020, 03:02:30 AM
Did an antibodies test and it showed negative so most likely its something else that made me lose taste completely for a brief time after being ill and completely wrecked my sense of smell.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on September 10, 2020, 09:02:36 AM
That is maybe not a safe conclusion: the antibody tests are known to have high rates of false negatives.

Not that it matters in some sense: you should continue to protect yourself from coronavirus regardless.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on October 30, 2020, 05:24:18 PM
New paper from the Imperial College London and others estimating IFR based on 10 antibody studies:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-34-ifr/

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-10-29-COVID19-Report-34.pdf

Quote
Summary

The infection fatality ratio (IFR) is a key statistic for estimating the burden of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and has been continuously debated throughout the current pandemic. Previous estimates have relied on data early in the epidemic, or have not fully accounted for uncertainty in serological test characteristics and delays from onset of infection to seroconversion, death, and antibody waning. After screening 175 studies, we identified 10 representative antibody surveys to obtain updated estimates of the IFR using a modelling framework that addresses the limitations listed above. We inferred serological test specificity from regional variation within serosurveys, which is critical for correctly estimating the cumulative proportion infected when seroprevalence is still low. We find that age-specific IFRs follow an approximately log-linear pattern, with the risk of death doubling approximately every eight years of age. Using these age-specific estimates, we estimate the overall IFR in a typical low-income country, with a population structure skewed towards younger individuals, to be 0.23% (0.14-0.42 95% prediction interval range). In contrast, in a typical high income country, with a greater concentration of elderly individuals, we estimate the overall IFR to be 1.15% (0.78-1.79 95% prediction interval range). We show that accounting for seroreversion, the waning of antibodies leading to a negative serological result, can slightly reduce the IFR among serosurveys conducted several months after the first wave of the outbreak, such as Italy. In contrast, uncertainty in test false positive rates combined with low seroprevalence in some surveys can reconcile apparently low crude fatality ratios with the IFR in other countries. Unbiased estimates of the IFR continue to be critical to policymakers to inform key response decisions. It will be important to continue to monitor the IFR as new treatments are introduced.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on October 30, 2020, 11:03:29 PM
So it's somewhere between 5 and 10 times more deadly than seasonal flus.

We are so fucked.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on November 09, 2020, 08:04:53 AM
Today a German biotech firm has announced that they successfully completed their trials and that they have a vaccine that is „more than 90% effective”.

The plan to start the clearance process with the German analog to the FDA next week

edit: the company name is Biontech and they also request clearance with the FDA

Edit by Trippy: Pfizer press release:

https://investors.pfizer.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2020/Pfizer-and-BioNTech-Announce-Vaccine-Candidate-Against-COVID-19-Achieved-Success-in-First-Interim-Analysis-from-Phase-3-Study/default.aspx


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Chimpy on November 09, 2020, 08:46:34 AM
Pfizer is their US partner.

This is one of the trials that when their testing protocols were released a couple of months ago got a good bit of skepticism from vaccine experts because the low bar they were looking to clear for "efficacy". And they said they would possibly stop the trial early if it showed early promising results. (I am not sure if it is this one, or the Moderna one that it just needed to show a "lack of a mild case in as few as 18 patients" to be deemed 'effective')


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on November 09, 2020, 09:23:23 AM
According to the press release

Vaccine candidate was found to be more than 90% effective in preventing COVID-19 in participants without evidence of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection in the first interim efficacy analysis
Analysis evaluated 94 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in trial participants
Study enrolled 43,538 participants, with 42% having diverse backgrounds, and no serious safety concerns have been observed; safety and additional efficacy data continue to be collected
Submission for Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) planned soon after the required safety milestone is achieved, which is currently expected to occur in the third week of November
Clinical trial to continue through to final analysis at 164 confirmed cases in orde


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on November 09, 2020, 09:50:56 AM
 90% would be great if it pans out. 


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Chimpy on November 09, 2020, 09:59:44 AM
There only being 84 cases out of 22,000 placebo recipients is what leads to questioning the 90% effective number.

It leads me to think that the people who participated in this trial were being more cautious than the population as a whole when it comes to social distancing, masking, etc.

I mean, it is great if it is truly effective.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on November 09, 2020, 10:05:46 AM
I don’t see how you could ‚improve‘ those odds without either vastly increasing the number of test subjects probably tenfold or without deliberately infecting people.

If you pre-select subjects for e.g. risky behavior it’s no longer a controlled representative study and you lose aspects of the double blind property.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on November 09, 2020, 12:11:35 PM
Pfizer is their US partner.

This is one of the trials that when their testing protocols were released a couple of months ago got a good bit of skepticism from vaccine experts because the low bar they were looking to clear for "efficacy". And they said they would possibly stop the trial early if it showed early promising results. (I am not sure if it is this one, or the Moderna one that it just needed to show a "lack of a mild case in as few as 18 patients" to be deemed 'effective')
They changed the criteria over time so the data they have currently is stronger than their original design. I'm not a statistician so I can't say if the earlier criticisms are still valid.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/09/covid-19-vaccine-from-pfizer-and-biontech-is-strongly-effective-early-data-from-large-trial-indicate/
Quote
In their announcement of the results, Pfizer and BioNTech revealed a surprise. The companies said they had decided not to conduct the 32-case analysis “after a discussion with the FDA.” Instead, they planned to conduct the analysis after 62 cases. But by the time the plan had been formalized, there had been 94 cases of Covid-19 in the study. It’s not known how many were in the vaccine arm, but it would have to be nine or fewer.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on November 09, 2020, 01:08:18 PM
Fun fact: the company which made the vaccine - Biontech - was founded by two second generation Turkish immigrants.

They decided to work on a COVID vaccine in January when there were still no confirmed cases in Europe.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on November 09, 2020, 03:50:28 PM
A few "cons" for this vaccine:

* It's one of the mRNA vaccines, like Moderna's version, which have never been approved for use in humans before -- i.e. it's unproven technology as a human vaccine

* It requires two doses, not one, separated by 21 days, to be effective

* It requires ultra-low temperature freezers (at -70C or below), which are rare, for longer-term storage, and needs to be used within a day or two of being thawed. Pfizer will be shipping the vaccine in special "suitcases" that can keep the vaccine at temperature for 10 days so the special freezers aren't an absolute requirement but it still makes handling the vaccine more complicated than some of the others.

In contrast, Johnson and Johnson's vaccine is a single dose, can be stored at -20C for long-term storage (~2 years), and at normal biological / vaccine storage temperatures (~5C) for up to 3 months. Basically J&J is going for the slower "ease of use and distribution will win the day" strategy while others are racing to be first to market.

https://www.rollcall.com/2020/10/13/deep-freezers-and-dry-ice-for-pfizer-vaccine-may-face-shortages/
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/j-j-starts-covid-19-vaccine-phase-3-eyes-early-2021-approval


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Chimpy on November 09, 2020, 03:54:23 PM
The J&J one is the one that I am hoping works because it is a more standard vaccine and, like you mentioned, it is the only vaccine in late stage trials right now that is a single dose and able to be distributed in developing countries.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on November 09, 2020, 05:41:49 PM
and that’s great. No need to turn everything into a two horse race.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on November 09, 2020, 05:54:32 PM
There are a crap-ton of vaccines in development right now with 30 already in trials (9 in Phase 3) and another 30 still in development. There's going to be a bunch on the market initially before things settle down to just the handful of best ones.

https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on November 09, 2020, 06:15:39 PM
Just to show you the pressures that are going to come to bear on this, we had students asking today if they could take it by January and be on campus without restrictions by the end of the month. People REALLY want to get back to normality. If the first vaccine that gets to market widely screws the pooch ultimately and either has terrible side effects or doesn't really work, it's going to be a catastrophe, but at the same time, waiting for the highest standard of clinical certainty is going to be a disaster too.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: 01101010 on November 09, 2020, 06:43:34 PM
There are a crap-ton of vaccines in development right now with 30 already in trials (9 in Phase 3) and another 30 still in development. There's going to be a bunch on the market initially before things settle down to just the handful of best ones.

https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker


This scares me the most - or at least has me concerned. I am convinced a lot of these companies are in it for the free development funds and might actually get a vaccine in testing that in no way ever would be cleared for it. Granted, those will be filtered out before it goes into human trials, but with so many running out there... inevitably one shitty one will get through.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Cyrrex on November 10, 2020, 05:05:09 AM
A few "cons" for this vaccine:

* It's one of the mRNA vaccines, like Moderna's version, which have never been approved for use in humans before -- i.e. it's unproven technology as a human vaccine

* It requires two doses, not one, separated by 21 days, to be effective

* It requires ultra-low temperature freezers (at -70C or below), which are rare, for longer-term storage, and needs to be used within a day or two of being thawed. Pfizer will be shipping the vaccine in special "suitcases" that can keep the vaccine at temperature for 10 days so the special freezers aren't an absolute requirement but it still makes handling the vaccine more complicated than some of the others.

In contrast, Johnson and Johnson's vaccine is a single dose, can be stored at -20C for long-term storage (~2 years), and at normal biological / vaccine storage temperatures (~5C) for up to 3 months. Basically J&J is going for the slower "ease of use and distribution will win the day" strategy while others are racing to be first to market.

https://www.rollcall.com/2020/10/13/deep-freezers-and-dry-ice-for-pfizer-vaccine-may-face-shortages/
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/j-j-starts-covid-19-vaccine-phase-3-eyes-early-2021-approval


Reading your points above, and I leap automatically to "ah....this is the vaccine for the super rich".  Doesn't sound like something that can be mobilized without a lot of resource behind it.

But fine, whatever, there are better solutions on the way.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on November 10, 2020, 07:19:47 AM
The proposed cost per treatment for the vaccine is $20 which is in line with other vaccinations.
Also dry ice exists is dirt cheap (waste byproduct of oxygen liquefaction) and has been used for decades to transport and store refrigerated items.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Draegan on November 10, 2020, 07:51:21 AM
There are a crap-ton of vaccines in development right now with 30 already in trials (9 in Phase 3) and another 30 still in development. There's going to be a bunch on the market initially before things settle down to just the handful of best ones.

https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker


This scares me the most - or at least has me concerned. I am convinced a lot of these companies are in it for the free development funds and might actually get a vaccine in testing that in no way ever would be cleared for it. Granted, those will be filtered out before it goes into human trials, but with so many running out there... inevitably one shitty one will get through.

This is how conspiracy theories are born.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on November 10, 2020, 08:18:34 AM
This is why we didn’t rush deployment of a vaccine candidates by skipping clinical trial steps. You know, what China and Russia did. while also forcing soldiers to be their Guinea pigs.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: 01101010 on November 10, 2020, 09:00:19 AM
There are a crap-ton of vaccines in development right now with 30 already in trials (9 in Phase 3) and another 30 still in development. There's going to be a bunch on the market initially before things settle down to just the handful of best ones.

https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker


This scares me the most - or at least has me concerned. I am convinced a lot of these companies are in it for the free development funds and might actually get a vaccine in testing that in no way ever would be cleared for it. Granted, those will be filtered out before it goes into human trials, but with so many running out there... inevitably one shitty one will get through.

This is how conspiracy theories are born.

Yeah, my worry is the fuel this can provide to the anti-vacc insanity. Cheetolini's handling of this is also to blame.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Chimpy on November 10, 2020, 09:30:34 AM
I think that the only company that really was in it for the 'grift' aspect was Moderna, because they are shady as fuck and the whole "warp speed" thing was being run by one of their board members (who resigned to run the thing).


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on November 10, 2020, 11:05:05 AM
My last comment comes over very hostile and that wasn’t my intention. Sorry


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Gimfain on November 11, 2020, 02:52:13 PM
Given that they have done a lot of testing they would have spotted the most common negative effects so I'm not that worried about uncommon side effects, I'm not worried about costs, I'm only concerned about the effectiveness of the vaccine. When you have lots of people dying while simultaneously having a fucked up economy any cost-benefit and risk analysis will tell you that waiting years isn't an option.

If it gets approved its done by people that have knowledge and definitely are a hell of a lot smarter than I am.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on November 11, 2020, 05:28:21 PM
The effectiveness thing is huge. If we say "vaccinated people are hereby cleared to have anal sex in the middle of a huge crowd of people drinking in a badly ventilated interior space where half of them are over 75 and have high blood pressure" and it turns out the vaccine only provides about 50% of the vaccinated with real protection from infection, we're right back where we started only we wasted a lot of time and money and public goodwill.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: 01101010 on November 11, 2020, 05:30:41 PM
The effectiveness thing is huge. If we say "vaccinated people are hereby cleared to have anal sex in the middle of a huge crowd of people drinking in a badly ventilated interior space where half of them are over 75 and have high blood pressure" and it turns out the vaccine only provides about 50% of the vaccinated with real protection from infection, we're right back where we started only we wasted a lot of time and money and public goodwill.

whoa... that escalated pretty quick.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on November 11, 2020, 05:49:31 PM
I see someone has filled out their "first thing I'm doing when we're free from Covid restrictions" list. :why_so_serious:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on November 11, 2020, 07:18:56 PM
People with a mature fetish have no doubt been really suffering.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: MahrinSkel on November 11, 2020, 07:49:02 PM
"Mature" and "lemon party" are very different fetishes, I think.

--Dave


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on November 12, 2020, 04:18:11 AM
The effectiveness thing is huge. If we say "vaccinated people are hereby cleared to have anal sex in the middle of a huge crowd of people drinking in a badly ventilated interior space where half of them are over 75 and have high blood pressure" and it turns out the vaccine only provides about 50% of the vaccinated with real protection from infection, we're right back where we started only we wasted a lot of time and money and public goodwill.


All of the current projections assume a 50% effectiveness of a vaccine, like you get with e.g. Indluenca vaccines. It’s usually enough to prevent full blown pandemic outbreaks at that point. Vaccines for less volatile diseases have usually a much higher effectiveness.

Also influenza vaccines for example make it so that the symptoms and progression of the disease is  less severe even in cases where an outbreak couldn’t be prevented entirely. Cases where a vaccine simply doesn’t work at all are extremely rare even with vaccines like influenza that depending on the current strain and vaccine mix is anywhere from 50-80% effective.

In addition the vaccination rate for influenza is low compared to other diseases like measles and it’s still effective in preventing large scale outbreaks


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: eldaec on November 12, 2020, 06:19:18 AM
I'm not sure influenza vaccines do stop outbreaks, my understanding was they primarily try to protect the most vulnerable from an inevitable outbreak.

The hard thing with a covid vaccine is that plans being talked about seem to imply that getting to the point of sufficient coverage to stop transmission will take years.

And protecting the espeicially vulnerable might still be achievable but covid still really sucks for everyone else who won't immediately get access to a jab.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Mandella on November 12, 2020, 09:14:28 PM
The effectiveness thing is huge. If we say "vaccinated people are hereby cleared to have anal sex in the middle of a huge crowd of people drinking in a badly ventilated interior space where half of them are over 75 and have high blood pressure" and it turns out the vaccine only provides about 50% of the vaccinated with real protection from infection, we're right back where we started only we wasted a lot of time and money and public goodwill.

whoa... that escalated pretty quick.

Pretty much the last few Ramones shows I saw. Maybe. I was drinking pretty heavy....


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on November 16, 2020, 01:43:15 PM
Moderna's interim trial results are in:

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/promising-interim-results-clinical-trial-nih-moderna-covid-19-vaccine
Quote
The interim analysis comprised 95 cases of symptomatic COVID-19 among volunteers. The DSMB reported that the candidate was safe and well-tolerated and noted a vaccine efficacy rate of 94.5%. The findings are statistically significant, meaning they are likely not due to chance. 90 of the cases occurred in the placebo group and 5 occurred in the vaccinated group. There were 11 cases of severe COVID-19 out of the 95 total, all of which occurred in the placebo group.
94.5% efficacy is slightly higher than the BioNTech/Pfizer reported results of "above 90%". Moderna's version, despite also using mRNA, is also easier to store being able to last 30 days in a refrigerator while the BioNTech/Pfizer has to be used within 5 days once thawed.

Moderna's analysis was 95 cases from >30,000 participants while BioNTech/Pfizer was 94 cases from >38,000 participants (receiving both doses). Moderna's reported results includes the count of those infected after they were vaccinated of 5 while BioNTech/Pfizer has not yet so far released that data and is presumably higher than Moderna (probably around 9 people) which is why their reported efficacy is lower.

Edit: that 9 number above comes from this article:
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/11/pfizer-biontech-interim-report-promising-but-lack-of-data-very-concerning/

Edit 2: More analysis from Derek Lowe:
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/11/16/modernas-vaccine-efficacy-readout


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on November 16, 2020, 02:10:26 PM
90%+ is greater than the 50% being tossed around earlier. I hope these become available soon.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on November 16, 2020, 02:34:01 PM
50% is the minimum for approval by the FDA, assuming it's safe. Fauci was hoping for at least 75%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/07/coronavirus-vaccine-dr-fauci-says-chances-of-it-being-highly-effective-is-not-great.html


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on November 16, 2020, 02:45:58 PM
Moved Sky's post to Politics version: http://forums.f13.net/index.php?topic=26152.msg1549859#msg1549859


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on November 16, 2020, 03:39:24 PM
I was posting it as more of a 'yeah but it'll still be a few months before we can get excited' thing...the schism in "presidential" posts was just an added chuckle. Sorry! (I'm avoiding the Politics sub for a while)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on November 17, 2020, 07:35:05 AM
If we have vaccines that are 90% effective and we get 60% of the population to take the vaccine and we also assume 15% of the population has been infected, is that enough?

Doing napkin math, 90%*60% gets us to 54%.  Then 15%* (1-60%) = 6% (removing the people who had the virus and got the vaccine) gets us to 60% of the population have some form of immunity.  I have no idea if this is how the math actually works, but I've seen that 55% number tossed around as enough to get out of this mess.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Chimpy on November 17, 2020, 08:36:56 AM
These "90% effective" numbers are not really indicative of immunity as what they deemed "effective" was not "makes person totally immune", it was whatever their trial protocol deemed the goal. And this efficacy information we have so far is all based on press releases that reference preliminary data that has not been peer reviewed.

In at least one of the vaccine trials it was "prevented mild symptoms".

There is also no indication yet of if these vaccines block transmission or just inhibit symptoms. Nor do we know how effective they are even a few months out.

I am not trying to say these vaccines are not important, but we need to be realistic that this is not just magically going away quickly.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on November 17, 2020, 08:56:25 AM
Anyone that thinks we'll be even close to "take your masks off and fly free!" stage of normal before late summer to end of 2021 is being wildly delusional and optimistic, and that's IF the vaccines are as effective as claimed. Even if the vaccines worked with that exact efficacy rate on most of the population, having the ability to produce that much vaccine AND get enough people to take it is going to require a massive mobilization. I mean, luckily we'll have people who actually believe in work doing it, but the real trick is somehow convincing 70+ million that some certain someone is not using the vaccine to track their movements or harvest their stem cells to create an army of transStalin clones.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on November 17, 2020, 01:20:29 PM
If we have vaccines that are 90% effective and we get 60% of the population to take the vaccine and we also assume 15% of the population has been infected, is that enough?

Doing napkin math, 90%*60% gets us to 54%.  Then 15%* (1-60%) = 6% (removing the people who had the virus and got the vaccine) gets us to 60% of the population have some form of immunity.  I have no idea if this is how the math actually works, but I've seen that 55% number tossed around as enough to get out of this mess.
The basic formula for calculating herd immunity is 1 - 1/R0[1]. Estimating R0 however is extremely complicated[2]. WHO currently estimates it between 2.0 and 4.0[3]. The CDC current "best guess" is 2.5[4]. We'll go with 3.0 for this estimate so that puts the herd immunity threshold at 66.67% or 67% rounding up. Estimates of seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in US currently varies wildly by region. We'll go with 9.0% here[5], and we're assuming immunity is long lasting.

So if we get a vaccine that's 90% "effective" where effective means those with the vaccine do not spread the virus to others then we would need:

(67% - 9%) / 90% = 64.4% of the population to get the vaccine for herd immunity to kick in

However the percentage needed to "get out of this mess" is potentially lower if we're willing to live with some restrictions. E.g. if "large" gatherings continue to be restricted for some period of time even after vaccines are widely available then COVID-19 may stop spreading at a lower vaccination level.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity#Mechanics

[2] Examples of some of the models used in the UK to estimate R0: https://royalsociety.org/-/media/policy/projects/set-c/set-covid-19-R-estimates.pdf

[3] https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/risk-comms-updates/update-28-covid-19-what-we-know-may-2020.pdf?sfvrsn=ed6e286c_2

[4] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

[5] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32009-2/fulltext


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on November 18, 2020, 12:47:20 PM
Pfizer / BioNTech Phase 3 study completed. Efficacy now at 95% from the 170 COVID-19 cases studied (162 placebo, 8 vaccine) which is on-par with the Moderna vaccine, though the Moderna one currently has fewer cases studied (95). One person in the Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine group had a "severe" COVID-19 case while so far none that have been studied in the Moderna vaccine phase 3 trial have.

https://investors.biontech.de/news-releases/news-release-details/pfizer-and-biontech-conclude-phase-3-study-covid-19-vaccine


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on November 20, 2020, 02:07:52 PM
Pfizer and BioNTech to Submit Emergency Use Authorization Request Today to the U.S. FDA for COVID-19 Vaccine (https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-submit-emergency-use-authorization)
Quote
NEW YORK & MAINZ, Germany--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) and BioNTech SE

(Nasdaq: BNTX) announced they will submit a request today to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) of their mRNA vaccine candidate, BNT162b2 against SARS-CoV-2, which will potentially enable use of the vaccine in high-risk populations in the U.S. by the middle to end of December 2020.

This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201120005370/en/

The submission is based on a vaccine efficacy rate of 95% (p<0.0001) demonstrated in the companies’ Phase 3 clinical study in participants without prior SARS-CoV-2 infection (first primary objective) and also in participants with and without prior SARS-CoV-2 infection (second primary objective), in each case measured from 7 days after the second dose. The first primary objective analysis was based on 170 confirmed cases of COVID-19. This submission also is supported by solicited safety data from a randomized subset of approximately 8,000 participants ≥18 years of age and unsolicited safety data from approximately 38,000 trial participants who have been followed for a median of two months following the second dose of the vaccine candidate. The submission also includes solicited safety data on approximately 100 children 12-15 years of age. Approximately 42% of global participants and 30% of U.S. participants in the Phase 3 study have racially and ethnically diverse backgrounds, and 41% of global and 45% of U.S. participants are 56-85 years of age. To date, the Data Monitoring Committee (DMC) for the study has not reported any serious safety concerns related to the vaccine.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: WayAbvPar on November 21, 2020, 03:09:42 AM
I am glad we are getting closer to a vaccine, and also glad I won't be one of the poor fuckers who get the first real doses. These things have been rushed so much that I fear there are a ton of undiscovered (or unreported) side effects. The really scary part is if there are major long term effects that no one will know about until everyone has it coursing through their veins. Between that and the virus, that might just do for humankind. Happy holidays!


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on November 23, 2020, 03:09:56 PM
Oxford announces results of their vaccine Phase III trial results:

https://www.research.ox.ac.uk/Article/2020-11-23-oxford-university-breakthrough-on-global-covid-19-vaccine

Quote
* Phase 3 interim analysis including 131 Covid-19 cases indicates that the vaccine is 70.4% effective when combining data from two dosing regimens
* In the two different dose regimens vaccine efficacy was 90% in one and 62% in the other
* Higher efficacy regimen used a halved first dose and standard second dose
* Early indication that vaccine could reduce virus transmission from an observed reduction in asymptomatic infections
* There were no hospitalised or severe cases in anyone who received the vaccine
* Large safety database from over 24,000 volunteers from clinical trials in the UK, Brazil and South Africa, with follow up since April
* Crucially, vaccine can be easily administered in existing healthcare systems, stored at ‘fridge temperature’ (2-8 °C) and distributed using existing logistics
* Large scale manufacturing ongoing in over 10 countries to support equitable global access

For reasons not understood yet (though there are hypotheses (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03326-w)) it was the treatment plan with with a half dose first dose and a full dose second dose that was the 90% effective one rather than the one with both at full doses. Also not sure what the "breakthrough" in the title is supposed to be since it's never referred to in the actual press release text.

They also conveniently left out the fact that the carrier adenovirus is from chimpanzees and extracted from their poop. :awesome_for_real:

Assuming the 90% effectiveness result holds up (the group getting the half dose + full dose treatment was significant smaller than the full dose x2 group) the advantages of this vaccine compared to the mRNA ones is that it's much cheaper to manufacturer right now (~US$2.50/dose vs ~US$25.00/dose for the mRNA versions) as adenovirus vector vaccines have been in use for a while and are well understood, and are easier to store.

Analysis from Derek Lowe: https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/11/23/oxford-az-vaccine-efficacy-data


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on November 23, 2020, 03:27:40 PM
The side effects part seems less worrisome than the fact that people who get it, no matter how much they're told to be cautious, are going to act as if they're invulnerable. If they're still capable of spreading it--or if it's a short-term immunity--things could get even worse after the first major wave of vaccination, paradoxically. But if there are side effects, then all vaccination may be in danger in the future. This is incredibly high stakes.



Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Chimpy on November 23, 2020, 05:48:31 PM
The oxford vaccine being found to work with reasonable efficacy bodes well for the J&J vaccine which is going to be the real game changer in terms of stopping the pandemic around the world.

Single dose, no special handling compared to vaccines already widely used, massive phase III trial with a considerably more robust criteria for efficacy.

I can tell you what, if I am given the choice I am taking the Oxford (or any other non mRNA) vaccine.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: 01101010 on November 23, 2020, 08:10:23 PM
So the new hotness is getting a COVID test and negative result - that is your ticket to not having to wear a mask. Honest to god heard a person actually say that today at the store. Perhaps with is an evolutionary event rather than just a pandemic.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Hawkbit on November 23, 2020, 10:06:15 PM
I appeared to be the only sick person in the line today for testing and we waited 30 minutes with 100+ others. I suspect most are getting tested so they can travel for the holidays.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on November 27, 2020, 09:54:21 PM
Kinda looks like the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine results need to be read with a boulder of salt.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Chimpy on November 27, 2020, 10:02:01 PM
Kinda looks like the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine results need to be read with a boulder of salt.


I dunno. While their stuff being strange due to different doses is concerning but they actually tested their subjects for COVID regularly whereas the mRNA guys only had people “report symptoms” and even the 62% number that was the low number from Oxford is above the minimum 50% efficacy requirement by regulators. And their vaccine is the only one so far that appears to have an impact on transmission. Also it is less than a tenth the price of the mRNA stuff a dose and doesn’t require any special handling compared to normal vaccines used everywhere.

The “miracle over 90%” numbers should be taken with at least as much salt as the Oxford/AstraZeneca one.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on November 27, 2020, 11:42:55 PM
I'm wise enough to know that by the time my ass can get any sort of vaccine, a whole bunch of other guinea pigs while have beta tested this shit for me.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on November 29, 2020, 10:38:21 AM
I'm wise enough to know that by the time my ass can get any sort of vaccine, a whole bunch of other guinea pigs while have beta tested this shit for me.


Not on a long enough timeline. We need to see what real countries have approved in the next few weeks, rather than the US.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Gimfain on December 02, 2020, 01:52:33 AM
Pfizer/biontech vaccine has been approved by UK
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/dec/02/pfizer-biontech-covid-vaccine-wins-licence-for-use-in-the-uk (https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/dec/02/pfizer-biontech-covid-vaccine-wins-licence-for-use-in-the-uk)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Cyrrex on December 02, 2020, 02:32:46 AM
Personally waiting for a vaccine approved by a non-facist right-winged government, thanks.

Actually I don't know what the process is like in the UK nor what levers the government there can apply.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Hawkbit on December 02, 2020, 03:40:04 AM
I'm on day 12 of this mess. I can technically go back to work now, but my doc wrote a note that says next Monday. It seemed to appease HR so that's good. My wife and I both ultimately tested positive; our daughter never got sick and tested negative. Also good.

I'm having 2-3 good days with fair energy, followed by a bad 1-2 days with lots of coughing and sleeping 12+ hours. The only thing that is really worrying me now is mental function, which is not 100%. Brain fog lingers, along with bouts of anxiety and forgetfulness. I keep doing dumb shit like leaving the teapot on, which causes my anxiety to spike because I'm worried about what this may have done to my head. It feels different than a regular cold/flu - like something else is getting in the way of thoughts. Hoping it all passes in time.

We got this because my wife visited a friend that has terminal cancer to say goodbye and the family members did not tell us they had just been tested. We only found out after we were both sick. I am super pissed. My wife and I worked out a plan to try to keep her as safe as possible during the visit, but all that got thrown out the window because of stupid, selfish people. They fully admitted they didn't tell her they were being tested for it because then my wife wouldn't visit. Fuck each and every person in that family. Don't trust people to do the right thing, no matter who they are.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: 01101010 on December 02, 2020, 07:19:42 PM
Getting whiplash from so many goalposts shifting around. CDC came out with a reduction to the days recommended to quarantine to 7 to encourage compliance. Ugh...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/02/health/cdc-shorter-quarantine-guidance/index.html

and soon after came this gem:
“I do think, unfortunately, before we see February, we could be close to 450,000 Americans who’ve died from this virus,” Redfield stated.

https://us.newschant.com/health/cdc-head-says-180000-more-americans-could-die-from-covid-19-by-february/

And just caught a 6pm local Colorado news story about a state rep telling businesses to basically ignore the governor's restrictions. I'll try and find the story on their website.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on December 03, 2020, 10:27:44 AM
Getting whiplash from so many goalposts shifting around. CDC came out with a reduction to the days recommended to quarantine to 7 to encourage compliance. Ugh...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/02/health/cdc-shorter-quarantine-guidance/index.html

and soon after came this gem:
“I do think, unfortunately, before we see February, we could be close to 450,000 Americans who’ve died from this virus,” Redfield stated.

https://us.newschant.com/health/cdc-head-says-180000-more-americans-could-die-from-covid-19-by-february/

And just caught a 6pm local Colorado news story about a state rep telling businesses to basically ignore the governor's restrictions. I'll try and find the story on their website.

If it wasn't clear before, America really isn't well setup to handle a crisis like this.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Cyrrex on December 03, 2020, 10:38:40 AM
Getting whiplash from so many goalposts shifting around. CDC came out with a reduction to the days recommended to quarantine to 7 to encourage compliance. Ugh...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/02/health/cdc-shorter-quarantine-guidance/index.html

and soon after came this gem:
“I do think, unfortunately, before we see February, we could be close to 450,000 Americans who’ve died from this virus,” Redfield stated.

https://us.newschant.com/health/cdc-head-says-180000-more-americans-could-die-from-covid-19-by-february/

And just caught a 6pm local Colorado news story about a state rep telling businesses to basically ignore the governor's restrictions. I'll try and find the story on their website.

If it wasn't clear before, America really isn't well setup to handle a crisis like this.

On account of all the Americans.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tale on December 04, 2020, 02:11:39 AM
I'm on day 12 of this mess. I can technically go back to work now, but my doc wrote a note that says next Monday. It seemed to appease HR so that's good. My wife and I both ultimately tested positive; our daughter never got sick and tested negative. Also good.

I'm having 2-3 good days with fair energy, followed by a bad 1-2 days with lots of coughing and sleeping 12+ hours. The only thing that is really worrying me now is mental function, which is not 100%. Brain fog lingers, along with bouts of anxiety and forgetfulness. I keep doing dumb shit like leaving the teapot on, which causes my anxiety to spike because I'm worried about what this may have done to my head. It feels different than a regular cold/flu - like something else is getting in the way of thoughts. Hoping it all passes in time.

We got this because my wife visited a friend that has terminal cancer to say goodbye and the family members did not tell us they had just been tested. We only found out after we were both sick. I am super pissed. My wife and I worked out a plan to try to keep her as safe as possible during the visit, but all that got thrown out the window because of stupid, selfish people. They fully admitted they didn't tell her they were being tested for it because then my wife wouldn't visit. Fuck each and every person in that family. Don't trust people to do the right thing, no matter who they are.

Continuing to read what you're posting, and wishing you well.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Hawkbit on December 04, 2020, 02:41:26 AM

Continuing to read what you're posting, and wishing you well.

Thank you! I think we are on the other side of this. My head isn't 100% but I think my body is ready to get back to work.

As sick as we were, I still feel we were the lucky ones.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Cyrrex on December 04, 2020, 05:06:52 AM
My 15 year-old seems to be out the other side of this thing as well, and seems nobody else got infected.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: calapine on December 06, 2020, 01:27:00 AM
Glad to hear that from both of you. 🤗


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Rasix on December 08, 2020, 01:08:02 PM
Son's school is staying all virtual until at least March 15.  :oh_i_see: There's no attempt to even try hybrid, but that's what we get for being at a charter school. They don't have the resources (teachers) to pull this off. There might be in person PE at some point, but whatever.

Of course the preschool just had to close down due to a staffer testing positive and the school contacting the heath board about what their next step should be.

There's a lot of mask wearing in Tucson, but also a lot of stupidity. I see a lot of dumbasses just completely maskless doing stuff like dropping off a package or waiting inside to pick up their takeout. Seriously, how much an ass do you have to be to see everyone around you masked up, and you just casually strolling around with a care in the world. There's not even any of posturing like they're looking for conflict, they just don't give a shit. It's a wide swath too from old grannies to some young douchebag wearing his fluffy moccasins. Only positive thing I've seen is some guy realize his mistake, ask for a mask, and then leave when they didn't have any.



Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on December 08, 2020, 02:45:24 PM
Son's school is staying all virtual until at least March 15.  :oh_i_see: There's no attempt to even try hybrid, but that's what we get for being at a charter school. They don't have the resources (teachers) to pull this off. There might be in person PE at some point, but whatever.

Of course the preschool just had to close down due to a staffer testing positive and the school contacting the heath board about what their next step should be.

There's a lot of mask wearing in Tucson, but also a lot of stupidity. I see a lot of dumbasses just completely maskless doing stuff like dropping off a package or waiting inside to pick up their takeout. Seriously, how much an ass do you have to be to see everyone around you masked up, and you just casually strolling around with a care in the world. There's not even any of posturing like they're looking for conflict, they just don't give a shit. It's a wide swath too from old grannies to some young douchebag wearing his fluffy moccasins. Only positive thing I've seen is some guy realize his mistake, ask for a mask, and then leave when they didn't have any.



I was watching the Monday Night Football game last night and noticing the mask compliance.  Routinely coaches remove their mask to yell (and spit) at their players, people don't cover their noses, etc.

There is never going to be 90% compliance in the US.  I'd be impressed if we even hit 50%


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on December 09, 2020, 12:49:30 PM
Apparently your teeth falling out because of vascular damage from Covid is also one of the long term complications  :ye_gods:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: calapine on December 09, 2020, 03:22:03 PM
Apparently your teeth falling out because of vascular damage from Covid is also one of the long term complications  :ye_gods:

I am no doctor, but doesn't that also imply negative effects on the male ...performance?  :grin:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on December 09, 2020, 04:39:39 PM
German Twitter calls it „Hodencovid“ (literal translation would be something akin to ‚COVID Of the Balls‘) don’t know if this term has carried over to Austria as well.

Calamine is correct as well, erectile dysfunction and sterility are also long term complications of COVID. Basically if it’s a body part with small blood vessels, it’s fucked long term.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on December 09, 2020, 05:00:51 PM
BBC: Covid-19 vaccine: Allergy warning over new jab (https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55244122)

Two NHS workers had allergic reactions to the BioNTech / Pfizer vaccine. The article doesn't list the cause of the reaction but it's likely from the polyethylene glycol (PEG) coating used to transport the vaccine (helps protect the payload from immune responses before its reach its target) which is known to cause allergic reactions.

Allergy, Asthma & Clinical Immunology: Immediate hypersensitivity to polyethylene glycols in unrelated products: when standardization in the nomenclature of the components of drugs, cosmetics, and food becomes necessary (https://aacijournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13223-019-0327-4)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on December 10, 2020, 12:09:47 PM
If it was already known to cause reactions... wouldn't you put that on the tin?

 :uhrr:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: 01101010 on December 10, 2020, 02:31:46 PM
If it was already known to cause reactions... wouldn't you put that on the tin?

 :uhrr:

lol. The haven't had time to create a tv commercial to outline all of that yet. Sheesh...  :why_so_serious:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on December 10, 2020, 04:46:23 PM
I already have the music for it:

Come on, vaccine
Oh, I swear
At this moment
You mean everything!


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: NowhereMan on December 22, 2020, 05:42:07 AM
At least one and possibly both of these were I believe in people who didn't have a history of allergic reactions.

In other fun news though, looks like Covid20 has emerged in the UK. On top of the regional lockdowns coming in for Christmas we've had travel restrictions put in for a growing number of countries. I do know a few people who were planning to go home for christmas to see family that are now firmly not going anywhere due to the travel restrictions. It's hard to feel too bad for them because clearly getting on a plane to go see your elderly parents in Italy is a bad idea but it sucks how many people are doing Xmas alone this year.

Hopefully experts are right and in this new strain is still going to be covered by the existing vaccinations otherwise 2021 isn't going to be much better. In fact for the UK it'll be happening alongside no deal Brexit so probably pretty shitty.

Regarding trusting UK vaccine approvals, etc. In general the NHS is well insulated from political pressure but Johnson has been pushing to remove that insulation largely because he wants to push through reforms that many trusts and hospitals have been resistant to. I don't think bodies like NICE (National Institute of Clinical Excellence) which does drug and treatment approvals have been under the gun for this kind of pressure so without hearing anything bad I'd trust health body recommendations and approvals but the government here would definitely be happy to loudly announce approval of a miracle cure before testing came in and just cross their fingers that it works out.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Chimpy on December 22, 2020, 11:21:23 AM
EU approved the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine yesterday.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Mandella on December 24, 2020, 04:56:59 PM
Welp, put me down in the group Gamers With COVID. Finally failed to dodge this bullet.

I'll spare you the recounting of just how crappy we're handling this most recent outbreak around here. By all sane considerations we should be in tight economically compensated lockdown, but no it's pretty much just business as usual except for the jam packed hospitals and care centers.

But so far relatively mild. Been fatigued for days with an itchy throat and sinus pressure. No loss of taste, but appetite is really down. Been subsisting on tiny oranges and Moose Munch. No more brain fog than usual, and no fever. We think my wife has already had it, but to be on the safe side we've divided the house up. I have the room with the biggest TV screen, so I'm good.

Might finally have the time to play A Wolf Among Us, or maybe finish The Last of Us.

I have a friend that spent his COVID time catching up with The Walking Dead, but I don't think I'm to that stage yet.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: calapine on December 26, 2020, 09:05:11 AM
It probably doesn't help any, but: Be well and  get better soon. Holding my thumbs for that's it a case. :heart:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Mosesandstick on December 26, 2020, 10:50:24 AM
Hope you recover quickly. I watched a Let's Play of A Wolf Among Us and really enjoyed it.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Mandella on December 28, 2020, 01:30:42 PM
Thanks for the well wishes. In retrospect I probably should have posted in the Conversation thread instead of this thread more devoted to news of the virus. But hey, from my point of view me getting it is news!

Glad I'm not having as rough a time of it as many others, but I am getting to experience that "feel mostly fine one day and then the next feel like crap again" symptom of the disease. But over all improving, and making damn sure I'm well quarantined and not infecting others, which is apparently a radical idea around these parts, so yall don't report me as some sort of socialist...

 :oh_i_see:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Hawkbit on December 29, 2020, 02:22:47 AM
Glad you’re on the mend. I’m about five weeks out from getting it and I still have good days/bad days with my lungs and sinuses.

Nothing to keep me from working but first few hours of every 3-4 days can be rough.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on December 29, 2020, 06:23:11 AM
My daughter received the first dose of the Moderna vaccine last week. No issues to report which is always a good thing.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: eldaec on December 30, 2020, 12:52:45 PM
Tested positive for covid just before Christmas.

Only symptoms were a mild cough and recently acid reflux. Which is kind of interesting since I came down with something back in the April peak and them suffered reflux for months afterward.

Always suspected whatever I had in April was the covids - but testing was basically not available then, wheras now I can get a PCR swab at the end of my road any day I need it. I wouldn't even have bothered with a test and stayed blissfully unaware this time if they weren't so easy to get now.

Rest of the family is still testing negative. Though here in north London 2% of the community have it at any one time now and horror of horrors they are talking about school closures again.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Rasix on January 22, 2021, 06:43:18 PM
Got vaccinated. IT fuckup in Tucson meant they had lots of vaccines but no appointments for about a 4 hour window.  Easy peasy.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on January 27, 2021, 09:57:09 AM
So I googled this and it's surprisingly hard to find the information.  I've read that hospitals have tested the surfaces in the rooms of covid patients and find no trace it the virus, indicating that it dies pretty quick outside the human body.

Do we actually know how long the virus lives on surfaces?  If you are wearing a mask and the mask filters some virus, how long does it last on the mask?


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on January 27, 2021, 12:02:26 PM
So I googled this and it's surprisingly hard to find the information.  I've read that hospitals have tested the surfaces in the rooms of covid patients and find no trace it the virus, indicating that it dies pretty quick outside the human body.

Do we actually know how long the virus lives on surfaces?  If you are wearing a mask and the mask filters some virus, how long does it last on the mask?
Your Google-fu is pretty bad if you can't find research on this subject. Something as basic as "how long does covid-19 live on surfaces" won't necessarily give you direct links to the original research papers but will give you lots of articles that link to the papers such as:

NEJM: Aerosol and Surface Stability of SARS-CoV-2 as Compared with SARS-CoV-1 (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973) (probably the most cited paper)

Lancet: Stability of SARS-CoV-2 in different environmental conditions (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(20)30003-3/fulltext) (this one includes tests on face masks)

Virology Journal: The effect of temperature on persistence of SARS-CoV-2 on common surfaces (https://virologyj.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12985-020-01418-7) (these tests were done "in the dark" to eliminate UV degradation since they were only interested in the impact of temperature)

The bigger question, which is hard to find good answers to, is whether or not you can get an transmissible infection from surface contact alone. So far that risk appears to be very very low. I.e. people who are getting transmissible infections do not appear to be getting it through surface contact. So it's not needed to constantly wipe down surfaces, handle takeout containers like they are made out of radium, etc. unless you are in a high-infection area like a hospital.

Edit: I think I meant symptomatic rather than transmissible


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on January 27, 2021, 12:20:53 PM
Yea I am terrible at the google.  Thanks!


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on January 27, 2021, 01:29:30 PM
Holy shitballs the old lady got an appointment for vax for her mom TOMORROW MORNING.

The site has been either buggy or filled by the time she's filled out this particular form, many times in the past couple weeks, and a coworker who was also filling it out got a 503 error at the same time.

PHEW at least we can continue to keep ourselves locked down and safe with a bit more ease of mind, despite the terrible people around us. I have another update for the counterpart thread in the basement....


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: RhyssaFireheart on February 08, 2021, 01:01:34 PM
Welp, got my first dose scheduled for Wednesday morning through my job.  My manager had this this morning, so I suspect it's the people who were originally approved for my employer's next phase of employees to return to the office which was supposed to happen last November, before Illinois started blowing up again.  No idea which variety I'll get yet, so it'll be a *surprise*!

Husband is mildly jealous that I'm getting mine before him (he's far more at risk than I am) but hey, employer's coordinating all this for me.  It probably means that I'll be back in the office at least part time around the end of Q1.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Draegan on February 08, 2021, 01:10:34 PM
My parents got their 1st dose few days ago in NJ.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on February 08, 2021, 08:18:12 PM
Yeah, my parents got their first shot last week in MS. I still can't even get on the schedule for mine.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on February 08, 2021, 08:22:46 PM
My mom at 80 got hers in a way that outrages me for my country and pleases me for her--her own health system was telling her sorry lady we have no idea, so her friends in the other major hospital system told her to call their hospital system and they were like oh yeah we got fucktons of it for you 80 year old lady come on down tomorrow, it's unlimited Moderna, we're bathing in it. So she went down tomorrow and got it and she's got her follow-up scheduled and it's no hay problema.

That is fucking crazy. It's not even about power or money or anything as coherent as that. It's one hospital system saying "oh yeah" like the Kool-Aid man and the other saying "we have never heard of this vaccine, plz to tell us what you are asking for". And the second system is otherwise a prestige system that gets asstons of federal money and has high ratings and is the place that powerful people go to for elective surgeries and so on. So yeah, we've managed to fuck this up special bad.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on February 09, 2021, 12:05:44 AM
My mom at 80 got hers in a way that outrages me for my country and pleases me for her--her own health system was telling her sorry lady we have no idea, so her friends in the other major hospital system told her to call their hospital system and they were like oh yeah we got fucktons of it for you 80 year old lady come on down tomorrow, it's unlimited Moderna, we're bathing in it. So she went down tomorrow and got it and she's got her follow-up scheduled and it's no hay problema.

That is fucking crazy. It's not even about power or money or anything as coherent as that. It's one hospital system saying "oh yeah" like the Kool-Aid man and the other saying "we have never heard of this vaccine, plz to tell us what you are asking for". And the second system is otherwise a prestige system that gets asstons of federal money and has high ratings and is the place that powerful people go to for elective surgeries and so on. So yeah, we've managed to fuck this up special bad.
Not surprising. Kaiser, the largest HMO in the San Francisco Bay Area, ran into vaccine shortages and had to cancel appointments, but some / most of the other hospital systems in the area didn't have the same issue, leading to a lot of confusion. My county, Santa Clara County, said enough is enough and announced recently that those 65 and older can get the vaccine at any vaccination site regardless of who their insurance is with.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: RhyssaFireheart on February 09, 2021, 12:31:09 PM
Yeah, we've been told April earliest for our group (1C) from our healthcare system, our county has no clue, just sign up please, and my employer came through for me alone out of the blue (I got the email for appointments on Monday to schedule for Wednesday).



Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Cyrrex on February 09, 2021, 01:27:39 PM
It is BONKERS that your employer even has any input into the decision.  I mean, good for your.  But BONKERS.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on February 09, 2021, 02:15:56 PM
US national policy on covid has been essentially set by employers all along. What fascinates me is that they aren't completely outraged by it, but I guess it's the same reason that many of them are indifferent to the idea of single-payer health care despite the fact that it would transfer an enormous cost burden back to the US government--they understand that being the only way to get health care (or now a vaccine) is ultimately an important tool for retaining employees who might otherwise look for a better compensation package or better working conditions.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on February 10, 2021, 03:24:37 AM
The new COVID variants have scared our politicians so much that Germany will extend our current lockdown until middle of March.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on February 11, 2021, 08:43:27 AM
It is BONKERS that your employer even has any input into the decision.  I mean, good for your.  But BONKERS.

Our employers and the politicians they donate to are the reason the US hasn't had any significant national lockdown. FOR THE ECONOMIEZ (you must be sacrificed - it's in the fine print of your contract).


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: RhyssaFireheart on February 11, 2021, 12:02:26 PM
It is BONKERS that your employer even has any input into the decision.  I mean, good for your.  But BONKERS.

?? - I'm confused.  My employer is handling getting all their employees (and contractors, if I read it right) vaccinated, so they have the space set up on campus to bring people in to get the shots.  I'm certainly not complaining because my freaking county and healthcare org aren't moving too quickly.  Hell, employer has said they'll eventually do family members as well, not sure on that timeline but if they can get my husband vaccinated quicker than the county/healthcare?  I'm all for it.  Biopharma bosses FTW! (No, employer doesn't even do vaccines, so that isn't a factor either).

Our employers and the politicians they donate to are the reason the US hasn't had any significant national lockdown. FOR THE ECONOMIEZ (you must be sacrificed - it's in the fine print of your contract).

Yeah, if the government hadn't been run by a fucking narcissistic orange asshole so damn stingy about helping actual people, it might have been easier for everyone overall.  I will say my employer sent everyone home back in March, unless you were unable to physically work from home (manufacturing, labs/scientists) and have kept everyone there since.  We were going to do a phased returned to office back in October for people willing to return, but then Illinois blew up again and they stopped it.  I think with the vaccines that'll start up again at the end of Q1 but they are being cautious overall, which is nice to know.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on February 11, 2021, 12:10:50 PM
Here’s California’s plan right now:

https://covid19.ca.gov/vaccines/#California's-vaccination-plan

Basically if you aren’t 65 or older or not in one of the essential workers categories listed in phase 1A and 1B you shouldn’t be getting the vaccine no matter what your employer might want.

Most other states have similar phased distribution schedules in place. That’s why Cyrrex thinks it’s crazy your employer is able to distribute the vaccine to whom it’ sees fit.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on February 11, 2021, 12:14:38 PM
Well, in Philadelphia, the city gave a bunch of vaccines to untrained 18-22 year old "entrepreneurs" from Drexel University, who proceeded to fuck up their one attempt at vaccinating elderly people and who then went off and vaccinated themselves at a party and photographed themselves doing it on Snapchat. So giving vaccine to employers is at least less crazy than doing that.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Cyrrex on February 11, 2021, 01:11:19 PM
It is BONKERS that your employer even has any input into the decision.  I mean, good for your.  But BONKERS.

?? - I'm confused.  My employer is handling getting all their employees (and contractors, if I read it right) vaccinated, so they have the space set up on campus to bring people in to get the shots.  I'm certainly not complaining because my freaking county and healthcare org aren't moving too quickly.  Hell, employer has said they'll eventually do family members as well, not sure on that timeline but if they can get my husband vaccinated quicker than the county/healthcare?  I'm all for it.  Biopharma bosses FTW! (No, employer doesn't even do vaccines, so that isn't a factor either).


I absolutely do not begrudge you for getting it.  My statement is wholly on the idea that any employer has any power to decide.  I am a little surprised if you do not see the reason for that.  There is a pretty well established methodology for rolling out vaccine in a country, and it sure as shit does not include anything about who your employer is unless you work in medical care of some kind.

So yeah.  Your employer having any say in the matter is utterly insane.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on February 11, 2021, 01:32:48 PM
Even in a hospital there's supposed to a be a priority list -- i.e. not everybody will/would be able to get it immediately. Stanford Medical Center made the news for fucking up their internal vaccine distribution plans twice in December.

https://www.ktvu.com/news/stanford-medicine-again-accused-of-bungling-vaccination-program


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on February 11, 2021, 01:38:23 PM
Having 50 different sets of guidelines for who gets a vaccine and when, without any sort of real guidance with teeth is the insane part. Allowing private industry to ensure their workers are vaccinated is only slightly less crazy than that because at least the private industry has a vested fucking interest in not fucking it up and making sure their people are protected. The problem isn't that private industry does it, it's that they feel they have to because the government has shit the bed on everything about this virus for the last year.

That's not even getting into the politics of our patchwork, schizo private for profit healthcare system, which has only exacerbated our previously shitty response.

In short, private industry had the ability to make vaccine choices because AMURCA and FREEDOM and FREE MARKRETS or some shit.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on February 12, 2021, 09:20:00 AM
The dad in FLA got his first dose yesterday, the old lady has an appointment set up, her mom gets her second dose next week, and my mom just got an appointment for today. I'm really hoping she shows up, she's trying to wiggle out of it. I suspect the influence of religious social media   :oh_i_see:

So then there's just me, the young, healthy one  :drill: I was checking exceptions and obesity as calculated by the silly BMI system is on the list. So I check and I'm at 29.3/30 needed.

Now I have a mad plan to eat dozens of cheeseburgers to qualify for the shot and I feel like Kramer.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on February 12, 2021, 11:41:19 AM
lulz


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on February 12, 2021, 02:28:46 PM
Today we learned my grilling can overcome social media misinformation! I mentioned to my mom that attendance to my grilling season events were conditional on being vaccinated  :drill:

She got her first shot an hour ago!


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on February 12, 2021, 02:30:41 PM
Nice social engineering job.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: eldaec on February 14, 2021, 07:32:50 AM
Today we learned my grilling can overcome social media misinformation! I mentioned to my mom that attendance to my grilling season events were conditional on being vaccinated  :drill:

She got her first shot an hour ago!

We have found access to grandchildren works the same way.
 


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on February 14, 2021, 09:50:01 AM
That would be a major medical miracle, right there.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on February 14, 2021, 11:07:08 AM
Today we learned my grilling can overcome social media misinformation! I mentioned to my mom that attendance to my grilling season events were conditional on being vaccinated  :drill:

She got her first shot an hour ago!

We have found access to grandchildren works the same way.
 

This is going to be what happens across the board. 99.99% of the people will cave the moment that not having a vaccine prevents them from getting their hair cut or going to a bar.  the other .01% will post on Facebook and it will be a major news story.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: eldaec on February 14, 2021, 11:35:43 AM
So far here in the UK we're reporting well over 90% takeup so far - way higher than generally expected, and higher than the proportion who told pollsters they'd accept the vaccine.

There is something in this worth investigating about why people are unusually willing to listen to objective truth and ignore idiots on this subject.



Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tale on February 14, 2021, 04:09:13 PM
So far here in the UK we're reporting well over 90% takeup so far - way higher than generally expected, and higher than the proportion who told pollsters they'd accept the vaccine.

There is something in this worth investigating about why people are unusually willing to listen to objective truth and ignore idiots on this subject.

My UK cousin's husband, after a year of posting conspiracy theories about vaccines and claiming the virus is a myth, has moved on to complaining about "chestfeeding" and loudly posting the word "breast" (oh and "cunt" for good measure) because he feels it's all censorship gone too far. [Snopes informs me that a UK hospital introduced "chestfeeding" as an additional acceptable term alongside breastfeeding, to be more inclusive of gay and trans parents, and nothing has been censored or replaced]

I suspect that once your parents and grandparents are being vaccinated for their own safety and you realise you want this to happen, you STFU about vaccine myths.

[Edit: I find him a pleasant and even kindhearted person and have enjoyed hanging out with him; it's only on FB that it's become apparent what is going on in his mind]


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on February 14, 2021, 04:52:44 PM
titnozzling just never took off


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: eldaec on February 14, 2021, 05:17:50 PM
That story was specifically about Brighton, which has an estimated 15% LBGTQ population.

So as you would expect they tend to make more of effort than most on inclusive language, occasionally with amusing results.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on February 15, 2021, 10:41:12 AM
i've already basically cast the devils out of family but someone who doesn't want a vaccine would get completely nuked, there'd be no negotiation

stupid spreads, and it won't spread here


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Cyrrex on February 16, 2021, 03:39:21 AM
Apparently both of my nieces - one who is a nursing assistant working with old people and the other a young RN who is too smart for her own good - are not getting the vaccine.  I thought most of the stupid was excised from my family, guess I was wrong about that.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on February 16, 2021, 03:50:54 AM
They might not get to choose, if they want to keep their jobs.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on February 16, 2021, 08:19:23 AM
Everyone in my close family has had their first shot! The old lady got hers yesterday.

Now it's just me (and ofc their 2nd jabs). I'm just too goddamned young and pretty.



Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on February 16, 2021, 02:44:06 PM
Both of my parents are now under quarantine because one of the nurses from the adult day care service that helps them with stuff was diagnosed with Covid.

This year just keeps getting worse and worse.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on March 05, 2021, 08:54:48 AM
So we have a loophole to be eligible, our director was pestering a [insert county official here] last night when he contacted her about a big new batch they just got (so big they've set up multiple arena-sized vax sites). She's been pushing our direct public contact and our charter as an educational institution from the state (from whence the vax cometh).

Crossing my fingers it's all legit, but about to head out to get my first jab! It's nice that by our spring vacation, my whole circle will be vaxxed up (not that we will be traveling, but at least we can get together and grill something)!


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on March 05, 2021, 09:11:09 AM
Be sure to sell your immune blood on the black market.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Rasix on March 08, 2021, 12:39:57 PM
I'm 2 weeks past my second dose. Yay.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on March 08, 2021, 12:41:59 PM
Congratulations.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: RhyssaFireheart on March 08, 2021, 02:14:43 PM
Second shot was this past Friday and I had a sore arm for a day or so?  It felt like I'd just overworked my muscles and that's about it.  I was maybe a bit extra tired that evening and on Saturday but otherwise, no real side effects.

Now to get past the two weeks until I'm fully "covered" and all will be good for me.  Next is getting my husband vaccinated somehow.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: calapine on March 09, 2021, 06:28:49 PM
Second shot was this past Friday and I had a sore arm for a day or so?  It felt like I'd just overworked my muscles and that's about it.  I was maybe a bit extra tired that evening and on Saturday but otherwise, no real side effects.

Now to get past the two weeks until I'm fully "covered" and all will be good for me.  Next is getting my husband vaccinated somehow.

Woohoo. :-)

Are you in any special group for early vaccination or just a "normal" person?


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on March 10, 2021, 07:54:11 AM
First shot felt like a mule kicked me in the shoulder, second one should be interesting...

Luckily the worst of it was just before bed and just after rising, so I slept through most of that phase! Around 30 hours after it went away entirely.

The old lady had her second on Monday. She also got a stuffy nose so she's convinced she has covid now.  :why_so_serious: She has a long history of 'I think I'm coming down with a cold' and her symptoms are completely normal for that situation, so I'm not worried though I urged her to get a test this morning for work purposes.

Availability in general seems to be getting really good the past couple weeks, a lot more places for people to qualify if they're on the boundaries of eligibility. In NY, retail (mostly drug stores) has been primarily for 65+ in phase 1b, but this morning one chain is allowing 60+ and teachers/aides (and they were much looser with the large batch of state-supplied vax last week when I was able to get in).


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on March 10, 2021, 07:56:36 AM
Also, the old lady alone has signed up hundreds of people for appointments and given guidance to many more. I don't think we've had a more gratifying (if exhausting) few weeks in the 21 years I've been here. All the frustration of the past year can be funneled into a positive course of action.

Of course, the county is the primary distributor and they're the ones who cut our funding by 50% while also asking for our help in filling appointments...


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: RhyssaFireheart on March 10, 2021, 10:41:33 AM
Second shot was this past Friday and I had a sore arm for a day or so?  It felt like I'd just overworked my muscles and that's about it.  I was maybe a bit extra tired that evening and on Saturday but otherwise, no real side effects.

Now to get past the two weeks until I'm fully "covered" and all will be good for me.  Next is getting my husband vaccinated somehow.

Woohoo. :-)

Are you in any special group for early vaccination or just a "normal" person?

No special group and while I'm glad I'm vaccinated now, I'm annoyed that my husband who is high-risk can't get an appointment at all.  My employer is doing all this for employees, then eventually family members.  I think contractors are even being included.  There's a benefit to working for a biopharma company, even though it is more than a bit fucked up that they can get vaccines privately but counties and health systems can't manage to get any for people. I more than suspect that the reason my company is doing this is so people can start coming back into the office starting 1-April, because according to our CEO it's vital to company culture to be in the office!  The sheer fact that we've done great working from home for a whole damn year doesn't matter, just "culture" and being able to hold meetings in person again.  *sigh*


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on March 10, 2021, 01:47:17 PM
Managed to finally get an appointment tomorrow--I think it will be for Moderna shot #1, though the pharmacy won't say in advance if that's what they've got.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: 01101010 on March 10, 2021, 02:30:53 PM
Managed to finally get an appointment tomorrow--I think it will be for Moderna shot #1, though the pharmacy won't say in advance if that's what they've got.

Which is still odd to me. Legally I believe they are obligated to tell you the details of any vaccine you are getting, but only at the time. I assume they don't tell you prior so you don't back out of a slot because you are partial to one or the other or the other?


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Rasix on March 10, 2021, 03:39:26 PM
First shot felt like a mule kicked me in the shoulder, second one should be interesting...


Did you get Moderna or Pfizer? My wife and I got the Moderna. Both had really sore arms for 2-3 days after the first shot. Second shot put me down with flu like symptoms for 24 hours. Wife was nearly out of it for 2 days.

Most people we know that got the Moderna had at least one "not fun" day after getting the second dose.



Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: 01101010 on March 10, 2021, 05:17:47 PM
My mother got round 1 of Pfizer and said her arm was pretty sore day after but eased up the more she moved it on her daily walk. Said it was similar to some of the flu shots she has had in the past.

Given my age and health status, I'll probably be put into the J&J single dose crowd in a few months.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on March 10, 2021, 09:16:52 PM
Mine was pfizer.

And as happy as I am, this also means we're likely to reopen the library next month, so....

 :ye_gods:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Zetor on March 10, 2021, 11:57:01 PM
I got the first shot (Sinopharm) two weeks ago. I'm not in a high-risk group, but all direct relatives of health workers are considered high priority, so I was actually vaccinated way before schedule.

Only side effect was feeling sleepy for half a day or so. Second dose is due in 2 weeks, apparently that one may have some more fun side effects.

(In Hungary, you get Pfizer/Biontech if you work in healthcare or are in a high risk group, Sinopharm otherwise)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Mandella on March 12, 2021, 12:59:38 PM
Got an appointment to get it done Monday, and not surprisingly from a completely broken process. My wife, who is actually on the high risk list (teacher), was asked while she made her appointment if it was just for her or for her and another. So she listed me.

Okay. Fine I guess. I'm still about three or four days short of the CDC recommended 90 day wait from onset of symptoms to getting the vaccine, but what the hell right? If I don't get it now I'll probably have to wait until May.

And nope don't know which vaccine I am getting. For all I know I'm going to be sprinkled with holy water while a priest chants...


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on March 12, 2021, 04:45:27 PM
Got #1 Moderna today. Friend of mine in CS wrote a script to ping all the pharmacies within 75 miles to get appointments for me and a few other folks. One of the women just ahead of me was an older lady and I heard her talking to a couple of the other folks waiting the usual 15 minutes after the shot--she started tearing up about how proud she was of herself for doing it because her sister and some of her friends kept screaming at her about how it was a government conspiracy and it was going to rewrite her DNA etc. "It was so hard to just tell them all to go to hell--they won't talk to me now," she said. "But you have to look out for yourself."  I wanted to ask her for their addresses so I could go slap them all.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on March 13, 2021, 11:07:29 AM
I'm 2 weeks past my second dose. Yay.

You know it's your duty as an American to lick every doorknob in your neighborhood, then go downtown and breathe in everyone's faces.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on March 13, 2021, 11:12:55 AM
I more than suspect that the reason my company is doing this is so people can start coming back into the office starting 1-April, because according to our CEO it's vital to company culture to be in the office!  The sheer fact that we've done great working from home for a whole damn year doesn't matter, just "culture" and being able to hold meetings in person again.  *sigh*

Less than a week after our governor decided to just remove all mask mandates and open all businesses at 100% capacity, we were told to come back in the office full-time. It's coming. There are plenty of people (OK BOOMERS) that cannot stand not having the office to come to, even though they may be no less productive from home. The culture of my generation (which I guess is our generation) and the one before us has been "if you ain't in the office, you ain't working even though I know you are, and if you aren't working, you're just being a lazy bastard!"

Fuck that attitude so squarely in the earhole.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: 01101010 on March 13, 2021, 12:23:53 PM
Less than a week after our governor decided to just remove all mask mandates and open all businesses at 100% capacity, we were told to come back in the office full-time. It's coming. There are plenty of people (OK BOOMERS) that cannot stand not having the office to come to, even though they may be no less productive from home. The culture of my generation (which I guess is our generation) and the one before us has been "if you ain't in the office, you ain't working even though I know you are, and if you aren't working, you're just being a lazy bastard!"

Fuck that attitude so squarely in the earhole.

So my department has been WFH for a year now and I was in the office for the first 2 weeks of my hire date in Oct 2020. WFH since that time, and at first it was MARCH 31, 2021 we'll be back in the office. All the higher ups in management were chanting this over and over, trying to promote the office experience as essential (I work as a data manager/specialist pulling data for research studies). This chant was being rallied around even as proof of everyone's productivity remained constant and even blipped up on occasion.

End of Jan, KP Colorado regional board pushed the 'temporary WFH' date back to August 31, 2021 and now there is a whole lot of chatter about restructuring the work week to 2-3 in office days a week or 5-10 in office days a month or as needed for meetings. In addition, since we are a research center, there is serious talk about moving our offices to consolidate space and selling the 3 build campus that I am supposed to be working at.

So in the 6m since I started, we went from pushing to get back into the office to losing our work office space entirely and shifting to a shared office space platform where people will be assigned like 3 work stations that they can use if they are in the office. I think the management in my dept were fighting to keep our space, but corporate looked at the numbers and decided it was too much sunk cost into an office building for us when we are as effective in the WFH environment. Bottom line, once the numbers were crunched and it became apparent that the upkeep cost of office space could be reduced, corporate started moving in that WFH direction.

Now I'd like to know if I can claim internet as a business expense since 80% of my internet traffic is for work for myself and my wife.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on March 13, 2021, 07:05:05 PM
Apparently not due to Trump: he eliminated almost all possible deductions for home offices so that he could lavish a tax cut on the .1%, right in time for covid-19.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Mandella on March 15, 2021, 02:36:50 PM
So yeah, got the shot (Moderna), and am now in the post vaccine COVID bonus round.

Looks like another day not getting off the couch. The dogs are happy with that.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: calapine on March 19, 2021, 12:35:20 PM
Got my government-sponsored anti-gen covid-test ration (5 tests):

(https://i.imgur.com/hwl1QUM.png)

Was as I expected, go to pharmacy, tell your social security number and they handle it like a e-prescription. 5 per month max.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: schild on March 19, 2021, 03:22:15 PM
no thank u


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: 01101010 on March 19, 2021, 04:34:36 PM
I'm with schild on this. No thank you... after watching the old research team swab people for Flu and how far that swab goes into your head? No. Not donating any of my brain matter for a test. Stick me in the arm and draw blood.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Mandella on March 20, 2021, 11:20:31 AM
Wait what?

Are you guys really balking at a nasal swab? I have two of those things scheduled for next week to make sure I'm Covid clear before a minor procedure, and I haven't given it two thoughts.

Am I missing something?


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Chimpy on March 20, 2021, 12:11:57 PM
I have been PCR COVID tested about 60 times now, never once with a brain swab.

Spit in a tube test is great. Worst part is no food or drink for an hour before.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on March 20, 2021, 01:38:29 PM
I've had worse things done to me. And according to some people I don't have any brain matter to lose anyway.  :why_so_serious:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: calapine on March 20, 2021, 02:15:14 PM
no thank u
I'm with schild on this. No thank you... after watching the old research team swab people for Flu and how far that swab goes into your head? No. Not donating any of my brain matter for a test. Stick me in the arm and draw blood.
Wait what?

Are you guys really balking at a nasal swab? I have two of those things scheduled for next week to make sure I'm Covid clear before a minor procedure, and I haven't given it two thoughts.

Am I missing something?

Maybe they are getting lobotomized? It's really not that bad: 2 cm up in the nose. At a testing station I had it performed on by a nurse in the same way, so this seems to be the proper procdure.

(https://i.imgur.com/opcFZ8O.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/c7lPEi2.png) (https://i.imgur.com/Mx4HfoT.png)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Mandella on March 20, 2021, 06:41:42 PM
I should have mentioned I've already had this before, but they do go further back than two cm here. They definitely go scraping back o' the sinuses, I just didn't find it that sensitive.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Chimpy on March 20, 2021, 11:04:06 PM
The typical swab PCR test uses a nasopharyngeal swab and has to go way back in.

The Austrian test pictured is an antigen test which apparently does not require the brain massage depth. Antigen tests have a fairly high false negative rate (though low false positive rates, just like PCR).


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Hammond on March 22, 2021, 09:17:58 AM
Got my first shot of the Pfizer vaccine Saturday and other than being a bit tired and a sore arm I didn't really noticed anything. I checked my temperature a few times and I didn't have anything noticeable. Washington state recently opened vaccinations up to a larger group and as of March 31st they are opening it up for even more.

The local mass clinic was extremely well run and from pulling in the parking lot to pulling out of the parking lot it took about 25 minutes.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on March 22, 2021, 11:35:23 AM
NY DoH just opened up vaccinations to 50+

Despite my neighbor complaining about her favorite bar being open only one night a week, she still won't get vaccinated after I told her they were opening another night for folks with vax records. I was sure it would push her off the fence, her hobby is getting drunk. She's been eligible since day 1 (she's a public-facing food service employee with the school district). "I'll get it when I'm ready." Bitch, what you waitin' for?

We also have a VH guy thats does part-time maintenance. Makes you real confident he's taking his sanitization duties seriously. His other gig is the inter-library delivery driver. So he visits three counties and touches thousands of items every day. What the hell.

Today marks the old lady's first day of 'full immunity' (3 wks out from her 2nd pfizer). Friday I get my 2nd pfizer. We're focusing on that and not the people who are bringing their 2020 stupidity along for the ride into the future. Fuck those people, tbqh.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Rasix on March 22, 2021, 02:01:43 PM
Tucson is now open to everyone 16 and older.  :thumbs_up: I hope the hesitancy/fuck-you-science population is a fairly small one, but I should know better.  Would be nice if the Little League coaches/volunteers got vaccinated to remove another possible infection vector for my son.



Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on March 22, 2021, 03:27:29 PM
I got my second jab of the Pfizer shot last Thursday. Felt a little sore and tired that night. Woke up Friday morning expecting to go to work and was like "Fuck no." Spent most of the day assuming the fetal position and waiting for the sweet release of death.

By Saturday, I felt fine.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Mandella on March 23, 2021, 12:54:55 AM
I got my second jab of the Pfizer shot last Thursday. Felt a little sore and tired that night. Woke up Friday morning expecting to go to work and was like "Fuck no." Spent most of the day assuming the fetal position and waiting for the sweet release of death.

By Saturday, I felt fine.

It's "funny" how fast the vaccine can put you through the symptoms again. The day I got mine (and as I had been warned) I got sick fast, with a repeat of the onset symptoms I had with the real thing. I was all ready to just wrap up in a blanket and catch up on some more Disney+ for the next couple of days, but then after a few hours I felt fine again. I was actually a little disappointed.

They tell me my second shot should have no ill effects, so that's cool I guess.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on March 27, 2021, 10:24:30 AM
Had my 2nd pfizer dose yesterday. I'm concerned about the turnout for the second dose. For the first dose, there were lines at every interaction, place was absolutely packed, took me over 3 hours from getting out of the FJ to getting back in to go home. Yesterday, no lines, just walked in, did the paperwork, got the jab, 15 minute observation (in an almost empty event center), walked out, about 25 minutes from FJ to FJ.

Feels a lot like people are skipping the 2nd shot here. Similar reports this morning from the 2nd vax site for this large county batch, so not an anomaly.

Kicked a lot harder this time. 1st time was just a sore shoulder in the evening, gone in about 30 hours. This time I had a hard wave of fever and nausea 5 hours in, which passed in about an hour. Then about 12 hours in, shoulder started getting sore and lethargy waves hit. Whole delt was just kicking like crazy and I had a weird nausea/acid stomach thing, so I slept in fits, getting up at least once an hour to hydrate and take a mild antacid...12 hours of fitful naps later, shoulder still a little sore but I'm probably through the woods.

That was...unpleasant. Happy that's over! Now my family circle is done, just waiting for me to hit my 2 weeks post-2nd shot. It's been a long damn road to get here, but none of us ended up infected, so that's nice. Going to have a heck of a grilling party in a couple weeks!

As a side note, our boss has fostered a culture of martyrdom that the old lady and I do not ascribe to....every other person getting their 2nd shot has tried to come back to work. I said fuck that and took the afternoon off to rest (and maybe play Valheim ofc), very glad I did. Because everyone else either suffered through at work (shitty service, thanks) or ended up going home (meaning someone had to scramble to cover their shift). Cult of martyrdom is stupid.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Samwise on March 27, 2021, 01:48:54 PM
In places where the rate of vaccination is increasing, more people will be getting the first jab on any given day than there will be people getting their second.  You'd also expect that second jabs will be high priority and scheduled/allocated far in advance, which should translate to shorter lines.

I'm counting down the days until I'm eligible for my first jab.  (19.)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on March 27, 2021, 11:39:53 PM
It's a special county event, 1 day each at 3 locations, fri/sat/sun. Your 2nd appointment is made on the spot, it's exactly the same time and day. I saw the guy who was ahead of me in line last time, everyone I work with had the same time slot. Wasn't any wiggle room, you had to get your second on the day the event was happening.

I'd say turnout was at best 10% of the 1st injection.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: NowhereMan on March 28, 2021, 08:42:45 AM
Had my first vaguely connected brush with the shit end of Covid yesterday. Friend of mine has been real busy giving moral support to a friend of his whose 33 year old wife just died of it a week after getting diagnosed. Shit really sucks as she didn't have any underlying health conditions and her husband is now dealing with that and looking after his 18 month old son while in self-isolation because of exposure to a confirmed Covid case. Apparently she was feeling standard ill but because of the low risk factors was just at home. They weren't aware her O2 levels were plummeting until it was really serious and she had just deteriorated too much by the time they got her to hospital.

They weren't anyone I knew but it's a bit of a shock considering the vaccine roll out in the UK and the general lack of reporting on deaths/cases still going on. The situation was feeling pretty near done to me and it just seems cosmically unfair to her family.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on March 28, 2021, 01:56:50 PM
Those seem to be the really horrible cases--the person is feeling "well, this is just a flu, I'll deal, no special reason to worry" and then very abruptly they're in mortal danger and it's already too late.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Samwise on March 28, 2021, 04:33:43 PM
I'm counting down the days until I'm eligible for my first jab.  (19.)

One of the places I waitlisted for a while back texted me this morning to let me know they'd added me to their eligible pool and I could sign up for an appointment with them.  I get the J&J on Tuesday!  Feels like waiting to open a big present on Christmas morning, even if the present is full of body aches.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: eldaec on March 28, 2021, 05:11:15 PM
Whoo got vaccinated.

Our pharmacy is running a list for people who are not yet eligible to book but can get to the store quickly to take spare doses that would otherwise go to waste. Got the call this evening and had a needle stuck into me 8 minutes later.

From what I can tell a lot of vaccination centres in the UK are now doing this but not advertising it to avoid being overrun, heard of a number of people who've been getting vaccinated quickly this way.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on March 28, 2021, 06:18:09 PM
I am hearing the same about pharmacies and pharma desks in supermarkets in the US--they have a list but they aren't (yet) advertising it.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on March 28, 2021, 09:09:15 PM
I suggested to my sister that she go to the Vaccination center and ask could she get a dose  left over from a No show, and she poo poohed it saying "Oh everyone will be doing that." I think I should suggest it again.

No real problems for me bar some arm pain and a lot of fatigue. My blood sugars went a bit apeshit as well. 12 weeks till Astra Zenika No 2. My mother got her dose of Pfeiser yesterday, and she is 4 weeks to Jab 2.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Morat20 on March 28, 2021, 09:48:20 PM
Whoo got vaccinated.

Our pharmacy is running a list for people who are not yet eligible to book but can get to the store quickly to take spare doses that would otherwise go to waste. Got the call this evening and had a needle stuck into me 8 minutes later.

From what I can tell a lot of vaccination centres in the UK are now doing this but not advertising it to avoid being overrun, heard of a number of people who've been getting vaccinated quickly this way.
I'm signed up on a few lists, and Texas goes to 16+ tomorrow. Hoping soon.



Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on March 29, 2021, 08:27:54 AM
I may be biased here, but see if your local library has their shit together. We tend to have announcements in real-time for new sites or appt blocks opening up. Basically we've been in signup/lobby/info mode since the first batches hit the Empire State. But not all libraries are as diligent, so ymwdv.

Lots of appointments we're making for our usual 1-3 day out windows already have appointments weeks out or are on various lists. By far the most effective thing, especially for those unsure if they're eligible (or looking for a legal loophole) is getting a hold of a good library in the area (we can cover several counties before our info starts getting sketchy).

One of those times that I'm incredibly proud of what we do, while simultaneously frustrated that people continue to not know about it and forget that we're not book warehouses, we're information and literacy agencies.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: 01101010 on March 29, 2021, 09:18:16 AM
I may be biased here, but see if your local library has their shit together. We tend to have announcements in real-time for new sites or appt blocks opening up. Basically we've been in signup/lobby/info mode since the first batches hit the Empire State. But not all libraries are as diligent, so ymwdv.

Lots of appointments we're making for our usual 1-3 day out windows already have appointments weeks out or are on various lists. By far the most effective thing, especially for those unsure if they're eligible (or looking for a legal loophole) is getting a hold of a good library in the area (we can cover several counties before our info starts getting sketchy).

One of those times that I'm incredibly proud of what we do, while simultaneously frustrated that people continue to not know about it and forget that we're not book warehouses, we're information and literacy agencies.

Funny this. There is a local library a block away from our apt and my wife is a library junkie. One of the first things she did was get her library card online when we got here in Sept. They were closed until earlier this year and moved to only having I think 10 patrons allowed inside at a given time. Then in 2 or 3 hour rotations, they closed the library to clean it before reopening for the next group of patrons that signed up. My wife went once and was very pleased with how they were handling it. Granted, it is one library...but hopefully this is standard practice at the other ones in the area. We walked up there yesterday to return some of her books and noticed they now have an installed series of lockers outside the main entrance that you can punch a code to get in and out of with a 24 hour limit sign... pretty much a package concierge locker system that apartment complexes have for amazon and other deliveries. 


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on March 30, 2021, 10:03:06 AM
Maybe it’s just me but every time I’m outside now I’ll get to a point where I just want to murder people. I no longer know how to cope with the situation.

Everywhere I go there’s people who will rage-tell you that “the government doesn’t do enough to stop Covid!” yet who can’t even be bothered to wear their masks correctly or follow any of the Covid protocols. People who completely absolved themselves of any personal responsibility for fighting this since it should be the magical - run by Hogwarts- government who should “just do their jobs”. Everyone has suddenly turned into an omniscient Covid expert who can and will tell you exactly what they would have done if they ran the government why everyone in charge is incompetent except them.

It’s spring and right now there’s hundreds of people outside in the parks of my city acting as if we’re not currently in the middle of a third Covid wave.

...and I really have to control my desire to simply go around and murder each and everyone of them.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on March 30, 2021, 11:51:36 AM
That was me last summer when I was the only person I could see wearing a fucking mask.

Its also me Today. Yes I'm wearing my mask after getting vaccinated as I give a fuck. Look upon the masses of maskless and despair


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: eldaec on March 30, 2021, 02:45:06 PM
I'm about a week away from that on current trends.

We're in a good place in the cycle right now in the UK, but it still means 5000 people testing positive a day and people are acting like they were at the height of last August's stupidity.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: calapine on April 02, 2021, 11:45:32 AM
Had two really crappy weeks, so it was a sunshine moment that I got the Moderna vaccine:

(https://i.imgur.com/QbGNn95.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/bteYVf3.png)

They are following the max 28 day interval strictly, so next appointment around 19. April


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: calapine on April 02, 2021, 11:52:02 AM
Maybe it’s just me but every time I’m outside now I’ll get to a point where I just want to murder people. I no longer know how to cope with the situation.

It’s spring and right now there’s hundreds of people outside in the parks of my city acting as if we’re not currently in the middle of a third Covid wave.

Isn't that partly because from several sources it was said that the outdoor infection risk is very slim and most infections occur at workplace or with family?

And just focus on yourself and your health. You can't fix other people.

Do you work in a job in which you have to deal with the Covid fallout?


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on April 02, 2021, 06:56:33 PM
Maybe it’s just me but every time I’m outside now I’ll get to a point where I just want to murder people. I no longer know how to cope with the situation.

It’s spring and right now there’s hundreds of people outside in the parks of my city acting as if we’re not currently in the middle of a third Covid wave.

Isn't that partly because from several sources it was said that the outdoor infection risk is very slim and most infections occur at workplace or with family?

And just focus on yourself and your health. You can't fix other people.

Do you work in a job in which you have to deal with the Covid fallout?

No I’ve just been stuck in my small apartment since January of last year and I’m just done with everything and everyone. I’m at a point where I absolutely despise just going outside


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on April 02, 2021, 07:41:07 PM
There's a book I like that's about how communities come together in disasters (counter to our typical assumption that everything will be a Hobbsean nightmare) and how governments often fuck shit up worse once they show up. The author agrees that doesn't always happen, it's not that simple, but it seems like a valid thought. And then here we are: the thing about the pandemic is that it has forced us to not support one another. Nobody's been able to give loving care for deeply sick family members, people have had to die alone, we've had to stay isolated from people we care for, we don't have those unintentional small conversations that let you really know where people are at, we're all stuck in routine. Everything looks the same and nothing's the same. This interrupts every good impulse people have about how to support one another in bad times.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on April 02, 2021, 07:53:37 PM
It’s not that. It’s realizing that this could all have been a lot easier, a lot fewer people could have died and we could have had fewer restrictions for less time if people  would have just accepted and adhered to a few minor inconveniences. Like keeping distance or wearing masks or not fucking off to Mallorca the first opportunity they get or not suing quarantine measures out of existence.

Instead what we’re seeing is people absolutely losing their shit and throwing temper tantrums even a three year old would be embarrassed about just because of inconsequential inconveniences.

All of the challenges we‘re about to face will require to accept changes to our lifestyle and will inconvenience us and we’re all gone die, as a species, because people would rather everyone dies than be inconvenienced even just a little bit.

Then once the consequences of their actions hit they cry for their governments to fix shit for them and then get absolutely stark raving mad on e they realize that a government is not a cabal of magical all powerful beings that just need to snap things into existence.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on April 02, 2021, 07:56:09 PM
We westerners have an infantile notion of everything. It’s me, me, me and when we fuck things up we cry and run back to mommy and daddy state and expect them to bail us out like we’re some sort of trust fund kid which ran over a kid while drunk driving and still wants to be admitted to Harcard.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on April 02, 2021, 08:19:58 PM
Last year around May or June it actually for a moment felt like we’re all in this together, there was still a wave of optimism and the lockdown had unlocked a lot of creative energy it almost seemed like a possibility that this could lead to some sort of lasting change. Naive I know but it felt that way.

Now we’re back to ‚it is my god given right to expose everyone else to the possibility of a horrifying and lonely death as long as I can waste money on this shit chain restaurant food and waste my time in bad clubs listening to shit music and paying too much money for sub par alcohol.

Which is why it’s now 3:30 am on Good Friday and I’m sitting here writing unabomber style diatribes on a gaming forum because I can’t sleep and can’t even get myself shit faced drunk because none of the liquor stores are open.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: calapine on April 02, 2021, 09:47:55 PM
Wish I could say something. Hope letting it out helps. Else pot or drinking might not be bad idea. As you said, get shit faced and stop caring about the state of the world for a few hours.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Mandella on April 02, 2021, 09:55:11 PM
I have to admit that I'm struggling to keep up a good "public face" too. That's odd for me, since, to be absolutely frank, I've seen a lot of examples of just how low humanity in general and in specific can sink, and I thought I was immune to it.

But just like I wasn't immune to the virus, I wasn't immune to coming down with a strong case of, well, barely concealed Elitism is really the only way to describe it.

Christ, I just realized I'm becoming Schild...

 :awesome_for_real:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on April 03, 2021, 04:38:16 AM
We are all... Schild...

(https://mutantreviewers.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/s4kosh2.jpg)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on April 03, 2021, 07:30:02 AM
I could watch Babylon 5 again


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: calapine on April 03, 2021, 09:44:38 AM
I could watch Babylon 5 again

Come to think of it, Kosh's "The avalanche has already started. It is too late for the pebbles to vote." feels very apropos to climate change.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on April 09, 2021, 04:41:36 PM
Pfizer and BioNTech Request Regulatory Agencies Expand Emergency Use of Their COVID-19 Vaccine to Adolescents (https://investors.biontech.de/news-releases/news-release-details/pfizer-and-biontech-request-regulatory-agencies-expand-emergency)
Quote
NEW YORK and MAINZ, GERMANY, April 9, 2021 — Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) and BioNTech SE (Nasdaq: BNTX) today requested amendments to the U.S. Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine (BNT162b2) to expand the use in adolescents 12 to 15 years of age. The companies plan to request similar rulings by other regulatory authorities worldwide in coming days. These requests are based on data from the pivotal Phase 3 trial in adolescents 12 to 15 years of age with or without prior evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, which demonstrated 100 percent efficacy and robust antibody response after vaccination with the COVID-19 Vaccine.

The Phase 3 trial with adolescents went very well and the results were announced at the end of March (https://investors.biontech.de/news-releases/news-release-details/pfizer-biontech-announce-positive-topline-results-pivotal-covid):
Quote
The trial enrolled 2,260 adolescents 12 to 15 years of age in the United States. In the trial, 18 cases of COVID-19 were observed in the placebo group (n=1,129) versus none in the vaccinated group (n=1,131). Vaccination with BNT162b2 elicited SARS-CoV-2–neutralizing antibody geometric mean titers (GMTs) of 1,239.5, demonstrating strong immunogenicity in a subset of adolescents one month after the second dose. This compares well (was non-inferior) to GMTs elicited by participants aged 16 to 25 years old (705.1 GMTs) in an earlier analysis. Further, BNT162b2 administration was well tolerated, with side effects generally consistent with those observed in participants 16 to 25 years of age.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Strazos on April 10, 2021, 03:14:33 AM
Finally getting a Moderna shot in about a week. Took way too damn long to get vaccines here, considering we are semi-front line workers without quick access to US-tier healthcare in the case of infection.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on April 10, 2021, 07:59:21 AM
https://twitter.com/justinjm1/status/1380684226496970756

Quote
Justin Miller
@justinjm1
·
12h
Detroit-area hospital is out of ventilators tonight for Covid patients, a source tells me. Michigan has almost as many people hospitalized now as the peak last April. It's very bad.

Quote
More on the crush of patients and the exhaustion of hospital workers, who aren't getting the support they had a year ago

https://t.co/igWgTbx8Ex?amp=1


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: SurfD on April 11, 2021, 04:31:50 AM
You know shit has to be bad when even 20 to 50 dollar an hour raises ONTOP of their already existing pay isn't enough to make people who essentially want to help people continue to work simply because they are so freaking burnt out even insane pay raises like that aren't worth it.  Like, Jesus Christ.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on April 11, 2021, 06:11:48 AM
People can only go at 110% for so long.  :heartbreak:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on April 11, 2021, 08:11:27 AM
Yeah but we applauded them from our windows and balconies, once, last year. That should have been more than enough. :why_so_serious:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on April 11, 2021, 11:12:15 AM
Yeah, the sheer amount of disdain that's been shown at the POLICY level for healthcare workers is an absolute crime, and it will affect our healthcare system for years. Not to get too political outside of politics, but it's the same sort of horseshit that happened after 9/11 with first responders and military personnel. "Thank you for your service," quickly turned to "Why are you bitching about having 4 consecutive tours in a war torn hellhole where the citizens are actively trying to kill you?" and "Pay raise? I'm not paying more in taxes!"


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on April 12, 2021, 05:41:20 AM
We lose about 7000 healthcare workers per month currently to burn out and a general „nothing materially has changed so you can all fuck off“ sense of being utterly done with this shit.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on April 12, 2021, 09:00:59 AM
Suicide rates for doctors and other medical professionals in the US have been steadily climbing for years.

I think on one end that's the relentless intensification of the work hours and pressures and on the other end the loss of professional autonomy--doctors have quietly been almost 100% turned into employees of big hospitals and insurance firms and rarely get either first or final say on treatment. Same thing has happened to a lot of lawyers and professors; in general we've eliminated the entire idea of professionals having controlling authority over the work they've been trained to do. But I think it's hit hardest on doctors because the stakes are so high and because they're so often told what to do by people who don't know a fucking thing about medicine except how to read actuarial data.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on April 12, 2021, 09:28:02 AM
(oops meant this for the crankypants thread in the basement!)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Hammond on April 12, 2021, 12:07:16 PM
Got my second shot of the Pfizer vaccine Saturday. Day of it wasn't to bad other than a sore arm. Sunday was a bit more fun with quite a bit of exhaustion.

In positive news if things continue as is by the end of this week 50% of the US population should have at least one shot with 30% being fully vaccinated.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-vaccine-updates-04-12-21/h_83beb1b429c300f4e881be0e515e23c1


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: 01101010 on April 12, 2021, 01:39:31 PM
My wife went to the clinic pharmacy Friday late in the day and got offered a vaccine. She and I were scheduled for Saturday so she declined at first. Waited in line to get her prescription, and then while walking out was approached again. So she decided to get it Friday night as long as they handled cancelling the Saturday appointment. She got Moderna - which is the one she really hoped for, so quite happy for her. She had a sore arm, but that was about it. Was gone by Sunday. I got my first shot Saturday and got Pfizer - a day later - which is the one I preferred. Sore arm later in the day and into Sunday - about 24h after the shot I suddenly felt completely exhausted and slightly aches - mostly joints felt achy like I if I had a cold. Gone today and the soreness is fading.

Funny part is my wife got her's a day later and has to wait 28 days till her 2nd Moderna. I went the day after, and my wait is 21 days so I'll get my 2nd before her and be cleared a week after she gets her 2nd. That said, for the first time in a year, I see a slight glimmer at a summer of caution rather than isolation.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on April 12, 2021, 05:01:44 PM
I got Moderna #2. Felt lightly bleah for the weekend but no biggie.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on April 12, 2021, 05:10:01 PM
So hard to know if this goes in Politics corona or normal people corona.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-canada-hospitals-idUSKBN2BZ205?taid=6074b8564ab4da0001c19d91&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_medium=trueanthem&utm_source=twitter (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-canada-hospitals-idUSKBN2BZ205?taid=6074b8564ab4da0001c19d91&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_medium=trueanthem&utm_source=twitter)

Quote
Ontario hospitals may have to withhold care as COVID-19 fills ICUs

By Allison Martell, Anna Mehler Paperny

3 Min Read

TORONTO (Reuters) - Doctors in the Canadian province of Ontario may soon have to decide who can and cannot receive treatment in intensive care as the number of coronavirus infections sets records and patients are packed into hospitals still stretched from a December wave.

Canada’s most populous province is canceling elective surgeries, admitting adults to a major children’s hospital and preparing field hospitals after the number of COVID-19 patients in ICUs jumped 31% to 612 in the week leading up to Sunday, according to data from the Ontario Hospital Association.

The sharp increase in Ontario hospital admissions is also straining supplies of tocilizumab, a drug often given to people seriously ill with COVID-19.

Hospital care is publicly funded in Canada, generally free at the point of care for residents. But new hospital beds have not kept pace with population growth, and shortages of staff and space often emerge during bad flu seasons.

Ontario’s hospitals fared relatively well during the first wave of the pandemic last year, in part because the province quickly canceled elective surgeries.

The College of Physicians and Surgeons of Ontario told doctors last Thursday that the province was considering “enacting the critical care triage protocol,” something that was not done during earlier waves of the virus. Triage protocols help doctors decide who to treat in a crisis.

“Everybody’s under extreme stress,” said Eddy Fan, an ICU doctor at Toronto’s University Health Network. He said no doctor wants to contemplate a triage protocol but there are only so many staff.

“There’s going to be a breaking point, a point at which we can’t fill those gaps any longer.”

In a statement, the health ministry said Ontario has not activated the protocol. A September draft suggested doctors could withhold life-sustaining care from patients with a less than 20% chance of surviving 12 months. A final version has not been made public.

Ontario’s Science Advisory Table had been forecasting the surge for months, said member and critical care physician Laveena Munshi. During a recent shift she wanted to call the son of a patient only to discover he was in an ICU across the street.

“The horror stories that we’re seeing in the hospital are like ones out of apocalyptic movies,” she said. “They’re not supposed to be the reality we’re seeing one year into a pandemic.”


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Mandella on April 15, 2021, 12:09:57 PM
Damn if the second Moderna injection hasn't kicked my butt harder than the first one did, contrary to expectations. But I'm already feeling better -- it's not really that bad.

I got the shots from a health department about an hour north of here in a *very* rural county. They are justifiably proud of the effectiveness of their local outreach, and a bit disgruntled about the State stepping in and screwing with their hands on approach to replace it with the state-wide online sign up. They feel that system is too easily gamed, and is messing up the ability to track shots.

Personal anecdote: I chatted with one of my neighbors yesterday while we were both stopped to move a small tree that had fallen across the road, and he proceeded to tell me about how reluctant he was to get the vaccine. Here we go, I thought, since I know him to be a touch right of center in his politics. He then proceeded to confide in me that he's always had a severe phobia of needles and he hasn't had a shot since he was a kid in the seventies, but this was just too important and he wanted to be safe for his grandchildren. He had already gotten the J&J shot.

That's really been my experience around here. For all the attention on anti-vaxxers and anti-maskers, people just want to get the damn vaccine and get on with their lives.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on April 15, 2021, 12:26:02 PM
I think yeah, that's it. Plus I think some people are getting comfortable with it now who weren't before just because so many people they know have gotten the shot.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Chimpy on April 15, 2021, 06:12:26 PM
There was a lot of hesitancy early on from people that didn’t trust the process of “warp speed”.

That group has mostly decided things are ok now that adults are in charge of health policy and millions of shots have been administered.

Now a lot of the hesitancy is from the red hat wearing crowd because if they get a vaccine then they would have to admit it isn’t a hoax.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Jeff Kelly on April 15, 2021, 06:47:26 PM
I learned that my mother could have already gotten a vaccine appointment but since it would have been with Astra Zeneca she refused.

Im ambivalent about this. I’d be much happier if she was vaccinated and I also believe that AZ would have been a safe choice and she also belongs to an at risk group for Covid due to several health issues.. On the other hand she has so many pre existing conditions and health issues and takes so many different medications for it that she might also be at a higher risk from complications.

I’d still probably be happier if she hadn’t refused.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: eldaec on April 16, 2021, 10:28:49 AM
Now a lot of the hesitancy is from the red hat wearing crowd because if they get a vaccine then they would have to admit it isn’t a hoax.

Around me it isn't this.

I'm seeing that crowd mouthing off but quietly getting the jab.

What I am seeing is more vulnerable people, often those who need the job more urgently, become more hesitant because of the idiots.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on April 16, 2021, 10:35:58 AM
Now a lot of the hesitancy is from the red hat wearing crowd because if they get a vaccine then they would have to admit it isn’t a hoax.

Around me it isn't this.

I'm seeing that crowd mouthing off but quietly getting the jab.

What I am seeing is more vulnerable people, often those who need the job more urgently, become more hesitant because of the idiots.

Now that you mention it, I'm seeing something similar.  All the Trumpy relatives I have all got vaccinated and the friends I have that didn't tend to be the crunchy hippy/liberal types who don't like the idea of being injected with anything.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: RhyssaFireheart on April 16, 2021, 11:27:23 PM
Husband got his second Pfizer stick today, so now we just wait the 2 weeks until he's safe and then.... nothing's going to change for us.  It's not worth taking risks even if we are both vaccinated now just to sit inside a restaurant to eat. 



Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: 01101010 on April 17, 2021, 07:59:33 AM
I dunno. After our second round of shots, wife and I are planning to ease up on the isolation effects. Still going to wear masks in public spaces but at least we will know we are unlikely to have to be hospitalized if we do get it.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on April 17, 2021, 04:14:49 PM
My wife and I got to visit my parents last night for the first time since Christmas 2019 because they are both vaxxed as well as us. No masks and I got to hug my parents which is amazingly something I missed a lot more than I would have thought.

Then I learned my dumbass sister and her dumbass godbothering husband aren't going to get vaxxed because "it's just a flu."

Fuck these idiots who pushed this idea so much.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tale on April 17, 2021, 06:38:32 PM
I learned that my mother could have already gotten a vaccine appointment but since it would have been with Astra Zeneca she refused.

Both my parents - who are about 80 - got the AstraZeneca vaccine last week.

My father is in the earlyish stages of dementia and says he didn't have much of a reaction, but my mother was very sick for 24 hours. She got so sick she rang the doctor (probably because of the fears about AstraZeneca). The doctor said he had exactly the same symptoms for 24 hours after his first AstraZeneca dose.

Australia's shitty federal government committed us almost entirely to AstraZeneca from the beginning (with a little bit of Pfizer), not wanting to cope with the deep freeze needs of the other vaccines. We're even locally manufacturing AstraZeneca as well as importing it. They've now recommended that nobody under 50 get the AstraZeneca vaccine, and a 48-year-old just died of blood clots after receiving it.

My sister is considered at-risk, so she signed up for the AstraZeneca despite being in her late 40s. She has now cancelled her appointment after all this, and it looks like she'll have to wait until October for Pfizer in Australia.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on April 22, 2021, 06:35:34 AM
I received the 2nd Dose of the Pfizer yesterday.  Today, I will entertain you all with details of my suffering. My employer gives us a full week of "Covid Relief Time Off" to use for stuff like getting vaccinated so used today because why not?


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on April 22, 2021, 10:00:44 AM
Now that we're all vaccinated, I feel basically safe for myself about being out in public but it seems to me that sticking with distancing and masking for a while longer is important both because the vaccinated might still be carriers and because there's enough Americans who are avoiding vaccination that if the vaccinated start up "normal life" again it will give them protective cover to do as they please, which will in turn lead to another spike in cases.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Samwise on April 22, 2021, 10:05:27 AM
Now that we're all vaccinated, I feel basically safe for myself about being out in public but it seems to me that sticking with distancing and masking for a while longer is important both because the vaccinated might still be carriers and because there's enough Americans who are avoiding vaccination that if the vaccinated start up "normal life" again it will give them protective cover to do as they please, which will in turn lead to another spike in cases.

This, plus the general public doesn't know that I'm vaccinated, so I figure it's easier to just keep masking up in public to avoid stressing other people out.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on April 22, 2021, 10:20:04 AM
That definitely also.

I don't know that I'll be comfortable dining inside a restaurant until the restaurant ownership assures me that everybody working there is vaccinated so I know that customers are not putting the staff at risk. I'm ok being in an interior space if there's some other dumbfuck customer there who isn't vaccinated and doesn't care about their own risk, but not about putting people at risk who have to be there to keep their jobs (though past May 30 or so, if they also aren't vaccinated, they're being stupid).


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on April 22, 2021, 10:33:01 AM
Now that we're all vaccinated, I feel basically safe for myself about being out in public but it seems to me that sticking with distancing and masking for a while longer is important both because the vaccinated might still be carriers and because there's enough Americans who are avoiding vaccination that if the vaccinated start up "normal life" again it will give them protective cover to do as they please, which will in turn lead to another spike in cases.

This is an area where I feel like the CDC is holding back a bit for the same reason you are.  Their website says "We are still learning how well vaccines prevent you from spreading the virus that causes COVID-19 to others, even if you do not have symptoms." Yet there are many studies (including their own https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7013e3.htm  that show it reduces transmission by 90%) that show you should feel safe about it.

So in the meantime, I wear my mask in the same way I did before getting vaccinated.





Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on April 22, 2021, 10:41:53 AM
Yeah, I'm pretty sure they're exaggerating how unsure they are about whether the vaccinated can spread covid-19 in order to encourage the vaccinated to remain masked and distanced as part of an effort to get the unvaccinated to comply. I think that's repeating the same mistake they made with discouraging masking in the first month of the pandemic because they were afraid of hoarding.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Samwise on April 22, 2021, 10:52:49 AM
Even at 90% efficacy, if you're constantly surrounded by unvaccinated mouthbreathers, you're at pretty good odds of picking it up and being able to transmit it to other unvaccinated mouthbreathers.  So every little bit helps.  If we were ever to hit 90% vaccination rates I don't think it'd matter but I also doubt we're getting there any time soon.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Chimpy on April 22, 2021, 11:25:38 AM
The rule of thumb for vaccines always is "you are safer as an unvaccinated person in a community that is fully vaccinated than a vaccinated person in a community that is mostly unvaccinated" .

Everyone needs to continue to practice masking/distancing/etc as much as possible until both the community spread is low and the percentage of vaccinated people is very high (like 75-80% minimum) or we will never get out of this loop. Community spread being stamped out is critical to stop variants from breeding like mad.



Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on April 22, 2021, 11:55:10 AM
Saw an article, 'If US vaccinations are up to 25%, why are cases spiking/'

 :uhrr:

We're still fucked and that's the new normal. Sense has left the building.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on April 22, 2021, 02:36:02 PM
Community spread being stamped out is critical to stop variants from breeding like mad.
And to follow up on that we don't know how effective the current vaccines are against most of the variants that are going around right now (with more appearing seemingly every week).


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on April 22, 2021, 02:47:17 PM
Saw an article, 'If US vaccinations are up to 25%, why are cases spiking/'

 :uhrr:

We're still fucked and that's the new normal. Sense has left the building.
In the US, yearly COVID-19 vaccine shots will likely be the norm for the foreseeable future given the amount of international travel the US receives and the level of vaccine hesitancy in this country.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: eldaec on April 22, 2021, 05:52:48 PM
Rest of world could easily take 5 years before credible levels of vaccination happen. So not sure international travel is going to be a thing for a long time.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on April 22, 2021, 05:57:38 PM
If that. There are going to be reservoirs of endemic covid-19 where variants are happily mutating away for at least that long.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on April 22, 2021, 11:27:40 PM
And yet international travel IS a thing and varients are spreading around.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: eldaec on April 23, 2021, 03:19:17 AM
Thing in the Times about a study that concluded the vaccines (AZ at least) were almost certainly reducing transmission and not just turning cases asymptomatic, that I found reasonably convincing and understandable...

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/b53bb7c6-a39b-11eb-949b-ab1b919d4f89?shareToken=f37be92aea796fe41300f90a89aea52e

Quote
The team conducting the study, which has been published before peer review, was able to record the viral load by noting how many “cycles” in the test were needed to detect a positive result.

Standard coronavirus tests employ a reaction known as PCR, in which genetic material from the virus is continually amplified. The fewer such amplifications needed to spot a positive, the more virus is present.

People who were vaccinated were far more likely to require 30 cycles or more to produce a positive result.

“I think from that we can infer that it likely reduces transmission,” Dr Koen Pouwels, from the University of Oxford, said. “These are people that are still able to transmit, but at a lower rate. So I think we can be fairly confident that there is a reduction. We just need to quantify the exact reduction.”


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on April 23, 2021, 09:21:40 PM
And yet international travel IS a thing and varients are spreading around.

Yes, that's what we're talking about already.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on April 23, 2021, 10:57:16 PM
There are way too many unvaccinated, stupid motherfuckers running around maskless for me to feel safe either not wearing a mask in public or dining in a restaurant or going to the gym. People like my sister who apparently is going around saying "it's just a flu." I haven't spoken to her, and fear that when I do, I'll say something like "You get a flu shot, you dumb bitch, what do you think that is?"


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: rattran on April 24, 2021, 08:57:22 AM
1 week after my first shot, and I have a tooth going bad. Had a panic attack just thinking about going in among the unwashed only partly-vaccinated myself.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Mandella on April 24, 2021, 02:18:15 PM
1 week after my first shot, and I have a tooth going bad. Had a panic attack just thinking about going in among the unwashed only partly-vaccinated myself.

Around here the dentists still have procedures that would be the envy of the guys in the lab in The Andromeda Strain. You stay in your car when you arrive. They come get you and take you directly to your exam room. Everyone is masked and all rooms are wiped down and sanitized between uses.

I actually felt safer at my periodontist than at my doctor's office. A lot safer, actually. For all the six foot spacing and plexi shields patients waiting were still directed to go sit in clearly unsanitized shared chairs.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on April 24, 2021, 02:42:30 PM
I had a bad tooth pulled during the week. Utterly horrific extraction as the tooth had been infected for months, but the point is that the dentist wore this thing that looked like a space helmet with a pipe for airflow going behind his back. They also did not have any people waiting in the waiting room and you had to wait in your cars outside.

I wouldn't worry about infection at a dentists.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: rattran on April 24, 2021, 03:36:16 PM
I've been putting off 2 extractions and an implant for a year. If it was just an extraction, I wouldn't be as worried. But it's more involved, and in Missouri. So I'm worried.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on April 25, 2021, 03:22:38 PM
I received the 2nd Dose of the Pfizer yesterday.  Today, I will entertain you all with details of my suffering. My employer gives us a full week of "Covid Relief Time Off" to use for stuff like getting vaccinated so used today because why not?

So other than a little fatigue, no side effects from the 2nd Pfizer dose.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Rasix on April 26, 2021, 03:18:06 PM
Son's baseball team had to shut down for a week due to the coach's kid testing positive. Not a big shocker, considering I've never seen a mask on the kid's face. Most of the real jock-ish kids barely even have them. It's interesting seeing the divide in mask usage. The breakdown on parent's profession is somewhat mixed. There's exceptions present, like the dentists' kids never wearing masks. Some kids whose parents are Univerisity employed wear and some don't. Most doctor's kids' do.

The one universal seems to be if your kid is a star player, a mask does not touch their face. Which is kind of odd, considering most of those players' parents have aspirations of them being collegiate atheletes and beyond. Might be difficult if COVID fucks up their lungs.

Luckily my son tested negative. We're both vaccinated but got tested anyways. They wanted to play Saturday, but I think we were the only hold out due to testing not being back yet. Funny enough, we were only going to have 8 and thus play with 8 (since no team wanted to lend players, shocker) since the coach's kid and other start player (both likely still had covid?) were playing in a club ball tournament. Fucking hell.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on April 26, 2021, 07:20:55 PM
The way in which the disease got politicized across the world (it's not just the US) conditioned some reactions and responses that I think might not have happened otherwise. Polio is a good counter-example. At its height, people were really sensitive across the board to the risk of it even if the iron-lung level of consequence was relatively rare, and especially families whose kids were athletic with aspirations in that direction. If the political hierarchy in the US and elsewhere had said forthrightly, "look, the long-term consequences are rare but very serious, mask up and limit your exposure", I think some of the people who've rejected masking would have accepted it. Once it got mapped against serious divides within global populations, it was all over.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on April 27, 2021, 02:38:39 PM
The way in which the disease got politicized across the world (it's not just the US) conditioned some reactions and responses that I think might not have happened otherwise. Polio is a good counter-example. At its height, people were really sensitive across the board to the risk of it even if the iron-lung level of consequence was relatively rare, and especially families whose kids were athletic with aspirations in that direction. If the political hierarchy in the US and elsewhere had said forthrightly, "look, the long-term consequences are rare but very serious, mask up and limit your exposure", I think some of the people who've rejected masking would have accepted it. Once it got mapped against serious divides within global populations, it was all over.


Counterpoint: Seat Belts.  'The long-term consequences of an accident are rare but very serious, buckle up and limit your exposure' has been similar to the marketing campaign for decades.  It was only when we mandated their use that people changed their behavior. 


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Cyrrex on April 28, 2021, 08:30:37 AM
I don't necessarily agree with making it "mandatory" as such, but that doesn't mean both government and private entities can't make your life impossible if you don't have, say, a vaccine pass.  Don't want a vaccine?  Cool!  Also, we'll arrest you if you go out in public.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on April 29, 2021, 10:58:12 AM
Arundhati Roy on the devastation of covid-19 in India right now. An unsparing indictment of Modi and the government he has shaped. https://www.theguardian.com/news/2021/apr/28/crime-against-humanity-arundhati-roy-india-covid-catastrophe


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: eldaec on April 29, 2021, 12:00:08 PM
India is the only country I've spent time in where the degree of nationalist and sectarian infection in the discourse even among generally well educated, was just frightening.

It is where Trump/Johnson et al lead.

And that piece is say exactly what I'd expect.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on April 29, 2021, 02:14:15 PM
At least some of that is a result of Modi's repression--somewhere in the last five years, it's become actively dangerous to be an educated, elite Hindu who is on record as disagreeing with Modi and Hindutva. (Obviously it's been real bad to be a Muslim elite since the very beginning of Modi's rise to power.)

And yes, this is precisely where this was always going in India and will go anywhere else on this road. It's not an accident that Hungary has had one of the world's worst death rates from covid-19 and that Brazil has been a catastrophe throughout the pandemic. Authoritarianism and sectarian nationalism doesn't even create efficient structures for managing public crises.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: pxib on April 29, 2021, 02:23:20 PM
Finally got first shot of Moderna after it got easier to get appointments online, and although there'd been a rush early on once things cleared up I had all sots of options. No crowd, no fuss, got it at a grocery store pharmacy a few blocks away... went shopping for the 15 minutes I wasn't recommended to drive.  Injection site was hot and achy the day of, merely achy for an additional three days and now I'm just waiting until mid May for the scheduled second shot.

Asking around, the report is that people are coming to their appointments on time and the appointments are indeed still booking up solid just more slowly than early on. Even though rural Kansas has a lot more doubters than the urban area I'm in, they're apparently also getting consistent enough business that they're using doses as quick as they're getting them. Everybody jokes about how getting the vaccine improves your cell phone reception.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on April 29, 2021, 03:12:47 PM
My county is redneck af and we're at 51% 1st dose, 41% fully vaxxed.

I'm kind of amazed, but it does take the edge off being at the grocery store lately. On the other hand, I'm not sure how much more penetration we're going to get.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Strazos on April 30, 2021, 12:36:29 PM
At least some of that is a result of Modi's repression--somewhere in the last five years, it's become actively dangerous to be an educated, elite Hindu who is on record as disagreeing with Modi and Hindutva. (Obviously it's been real bad to be a Muslim elite since the very beginning of Modi's rise to power.)

And yes, this is precisely where this was always going in India and will go anywhere else on this road. It's not an accident that Hungary has had one of the world's worst death rates from covid-19 and that Brazil has been a catastrophe throughout the pandemic. Authoritarianism and sectarian nationalism doesn't even create efficient structures for managing public crises.

And as bad as it is here in India...it's likely to only get a lot worse before it gets better. People are still having weddings and other large-scale religious ceremonies here.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: 01101010 on May 01, 2021, 02:58:04 PM
Pfizer round two was an hour ago. Some woman waiting in observation had a reaction while waiting to leave. Visibly sweating and kinda out of it so that was interesting.

Now the wait-and-see part starts. Good thing I took care of all my errands yesterday on my day off.

edit: Fell asleep on the couch last night and remained there. Getting up this morning, feels like I have a medium sized hangover. Stomach is flip-flopping, headachy, slight ringing in the ears, and overall body aches but nothing severe. Slightly hard to focus on anything that takes up brainpower, but that is probably due to everything else being more pronounced. The arm I got the injection in is less sore than the last one. So overall, nothing crazy...


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Cyrrex on May 03, 2021, 01:12:05 AM

edit: Fell asleep on the couch last night and remained there. Getting up this morning, feels like I have a medium sized hangover. Stomach is flip-flopping, headachy, slight ringing in the ears, and overall body aches but nothing severe. Slightly hard to focus on anything that takes up brainpower, but that is probably due to everything else being more pronounced. The arm I got the injection in is less sore than the last one. So overall, nothing crazy...

I hate to be the one to break it to you, but this post you made is entirely in your imagination.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Phildo on May 03, 2021, 08:30:56 AM
I had my second Pfizer yesterday and took today off work just in case, but I feel fine so far other than some arm soreness.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: calapine on May 04, 2021, 06:57:56 AM
I had my second Pfizer yesterday and took today off work just in case, but I feel fine so far other than some arm soreness.

Exactly my reaction too (2nd Moderna). Focusing too much on possible reactions probably just invites them.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: eldaec on May 04, 2021, 07:49:48 AM
Read various things suggesting getting more rest in the aftermath helps get a stronger response from the vaccine.


Might be bullshit but unlikely to hurt.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on May 04, 2021, 11:59:01 PM
https://twitter.com/rupasubramanya/status/1389718661905092609

Quote
Rupa Subramanya@rupasubramanya
New variant discovered discovered in the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh is "at least 15 times more virulent than the earlier ones, and may be even stronger than the Indian variants of B1.617 and B1.618. Experts a shorter exposure is enough to acquire the virus". I don't even.


The Hindu@the_hindu
· 22h
Experts say the new prevalent #COVID19 variant, which is being called the AP strain as it was first discovered in Kurnool, is at least 15 times more virulent than the earlier ones, and may be even stronger than the Indian variants of B1.617 and B1.618

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E0lQ2SIVUAMb0aD?format=jpg&name=large)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on May 05, 2021, 08:39:17 AM
So, in a metaphor, a seaside town in japan has used $228k of Covid relief money to build a giant statue of a squid.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56978075

(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/BAE1/production/_118314874_squid1.jpg)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: RhyssaFireheart on May 21, 2021, 11:02:33 AM
So I'm being submitted on Monday for approval to return to the office.  I'll have to go through instructor-led training of some sort (lulz!) before being allowed back, but otherwise it's only part time.  My manager suggest M W F, I countered with M W Th, and he's fine with that, so we'll see.  I'm still planning to wear a mask when moving about and will continue to avoid in-person meetings if possible.

At least it'll be a change from being at home all the effing time.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Rasix on May 21, 2021, 11:10:19 AM
Yah, I just got approved for working on site. I didn't ask to, but I need to install some development hardware for another site in our lab.

There's no logical reason why it has to be me, but whatever, I'll go in. We're still in a phase 1 reopening, so the practices are pretty much the same as a year ago. Fun fun.

Baseball season is almost over and my son will be done with school soon, so there's little impact on me personally. I'd just rather not be everyone's lab gopher.





Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on May 21, 2021, 11:58:22 AM
We are fully opening on June 1. Nobody is happy, but it is what it is. Just happy that I'm vaccinated.

Unfortunately, we kinda got forced into moving up our timeline thanks to the state and locals falling into line behind the CDC almost immediately. We figured we'd phase the opening similar to last year's phases. So I just had a shitload of work dumped onto my desk to finish next week.

And I just had a confrontation yesterday with an angry dude about masks, so after June 1 it'll basically be 'fuck it, pandemic's over' (though the daily deaths are still more than double of where they were last year here, but who gives a shit, right?)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on May 21, 2021, 07:31:35 PM
I volunteered to go back into the office for a pilot.  I only live 10 minutes away so I figured "why not?"  Unfortunately, the powers that be decided to change to a more open concept seating arrangement and that just doesn't work when the job requires 6 zoom meetings a day. 

So it's back to the home office I go.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: 01101010 on May 21, 2021, 11:13:26 PM
I had to go in for a whiteboarding session for a new intervention a project is planning. Had a call an hour before so went in early. It was strange not least of which I have ever only been in the office for this job for my orientation week. The whole time I kept thinking I could be listening in on the whiteboarding session on Teams and working on code to pull the data for another project. Actually started feeling anxious about not being able to get more done.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on May 24, 2021, 09:02:58 AM
the powers that be decided to change to a more open concept seating arrangement and that just doesn't work
fify


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Samwise on May 24, 2021, 10:01:51 AM
Usually in an open-seating office you at least have conference rooms where you can have meetings without everyone having to hear everyone else.  I'm still waiting to see how things shake out when the office reopens, but given the number of people who've gone fully remote and the number of Zoom meetings I'm going to continue to have to do, I might be able to just permanently claim a conference room as my private office.   :drill:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on May 25, 2021, 04:26:27 AM
Usually in an open-seating office you at least have conference rooms where you can have meetings without everyone having to hear everyone else.  I'm still waiting to see how things shake out when the office reopens, but given the number of people who've gone fully remote and the number of Zoom meetings I'm going to continue to have to do, I might be able to just permanently claim a conference room as my private office.   :drill:

So when everyone is on zoom calls it becomes a scramble to see who can show up the earliest and claim a room.  Sounds fun!


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Samwise on May 25, 2021, 12:20:15 PM
So when everyone is on zoom calls it becomes a scramble to see who can show up the earliest and claim a room.  Sounds fun!

Every Zoom call takes the place of what would otherwise (pre-pandemic) have been a meeting in a conference room, so room availability should stay the same, at worst.  

My "private office" comment was suggesting that with the increased number of people who've gone full remote, we might just have one conference room per person in the actual office, which means effectively everyone gets a real office with walls and a door, just like the old days.  Will have to see how the numbers actually shake out, but the overall trend is going to be toward office space being cheaper, which means more space for those of us who have the luxury of living near it.  I've already been thinking about subletting my own private office from one of the companies in SF who are madly scrambling to stop the bleeding from their now-useless leases.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on May 26, 2021, 02:14:24 PM
Lots of talk in academia about what the "new normal" ought to be when we all come back in the fall, which for a lot of faculty and staff sounds uncomfortably like "I wonder whose jobs we can get rid of permanently?" and "Hey, maybe we really don't have to have students here" (that's being pushed by the ed-tech people who've been trying to pull an Uber on K-12s and universities alike since the late 1990s and have so far failed).  But there's stuff I'm completely good with making permanent. I've been to talks and workshops on Zoom "at" locations all over the world this year and it's been rather lovely. A lot of events that would have been dull canned lectures have been turned into conversations or dialogues. I would be perfectly happy to see professional association meetings die forever.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on May 27, 2021, 05:29:03 AM
So when everyone is on zoom calls it becomes a scramble to see who can show up the earliest and claim a room.  Sounds fun!

Every Zoom call takes the place of what would otherwise (pre-pandemic) have been a meeting in a conference room, so room availability should stay the same, at worst.  

My "private office" comment was suggesting that with the increased number of people who've gone full remote, we might just have one conference room per person in the actual office, which means effectively everyone gets a real office with walls and a door, just like the old days.  Will have to see how the numbers actually shake out, but the overall trend is going to be toward office space being cheaper, which means more space for those of us who have the luxury of living near it.  I've already been thinking about subletting my own private office from one of the companies in SF who are madly scrambling to stop the bleeding from their now-useless leases.

Before the Pandemic when we "in the office" it's not a situation where all of us are at the same location.  I will have project team members from California, Texas, New Hampshire, and India.  So when we are in the office, it's just like working from home with Zoom calls all day from your desk.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tebonas on May 27, 2021, 06:36:05 AM
Of course many companies will try to use this to roll off parts of their infrastructure costs to their employees, ideally without re-compensating them for it.

Apart from that, there are only upsides to more flexible working space arrangements in areas where this is possible. Another bank in our area had mandatory Home Office days even before Covid, cutting down on 20 to 30 percent of office space. I think the future in many companies will be Home Office as standard, and mandatory office days once in a while. No bean counter can resist the idea of saving that much money, especially now that necessity has proven that people aren't really less productive at home (which was the standard argument one heard before Covid).


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on May 27, 2021, 07:32:23 AM
Back when organized labor was something that generally got you hit over the head by a Pinkerton with a billy club, mine owners made miners pay for their own equipment. I can definitely see a lot of white-collar businesses being happy to make employees eat all the costs of maintaining a functional office--it's up to you to get your own broadband and productivity software etc. if you want to work here!--and maybe offloading the rest of their benefits structure at the same time. (Though health care tied to the workplace is an important strategic tool in employee retention.)



Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Samwise on May 27, 2021, 09:17:07 AM
So when we are in the office, it's just like working from home with Zoom calls all day from your desk.

Oh, yeah, that's pretty dumb then.  Before the pandemic I worked in an open-plan office where if you were going to be on a Zoom call you grabbed a conference room.  Finding a big conference room for a big in-person meeting was usually challenging on short notice, but we had a lot of smaller two-person conference rooms for 1:1s and Zoom calls.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on May 27, 2021, 11:04:56 AM
A bunch of four Young likely lads were right up in my back yesterday when I was grocery shopping and I had to tell them to back off. Weren't wearing masks too. The whole Covid reality is largely breaking down here.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Cyrrex on June 03, 2021, 06:36:44 AM
New normal:  During a 4 hour training/workshop event today, I:

-Shaved my face and head
-Ate lots of cold pizza
-Took a dump.
-Dis-assembled some DnD terrain pieces
-Took a shower during a 5 minute break
-Stood up and wandered around a bit

Despite all that, I don't believe I got any less out of the event.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tale on June 03, 2021, 07:22:10 AM
Haha, but you do have to triple-check that no video/mic is on.

I've been working from home since March 13, 2020. During today's meeting about a site I don't run (that is similar to one I run), I was namedropped twice at the start and had to respond, then I muted myself, switched off video and, while listening on my headphones...

- Emptied the dishwasher
- Stacked two days' worth of firewood
- Sat down with a cup of tea and a snack
- Played EverQuest in a window


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on June 13, 2021, 05:18:21 PM
AstraZenica jab on Wed. I'll be appearing as a boss in Bloodborne afterwards.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on June 14, 2021, 04:28:35 PM
Too bad for you, most of us have already achieved "Hobo Magneto" status.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on June 14, 2021, 05:21:20 PM
Novavax announced their non-peer reviewed US / Mexico Phase 3 Trial results today:

Novavax COVID-19 Vaccine Demonstrates 90% Overall Efficacy and 100% Protection Against Moderate and Severe Disease in PREVENT-19 Phase 3 Trial (https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-90-overall-efficacy-and)

Quote
GAITHERSBURG, Md., June 14, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq: NVAX), today announced that NVX-CoV2373, its recombinant nanoparticle protein-based COVID-19 vaccine, demonstrated 100% protection against moderate and severe disease, 90.4% efficacy overall, and met the primary endpoint in its PREVENT-19 pivotal Phase 3 trial. The study enrolled 29,960 participants across 119 sites in the U.S. and Mexico to evaluate efficacy, safety and immunogenicity, with an emphasis on recruiting a representative population of communities and demographic groups most impacted by the disease.
...
The company intends to file for regulatory authorizations in the third quarter, upon completion of the final phases of process qualification and assay validation needed to meet chemistry, manufacturing and controls (CMC) requirements. Upon regulatory approvals, Novavax remains on track to reach manufacturing capacity of 100 million doses per month by the end of the third quarter and 150 million doses per month by the end of the fourth quarter of 2021.

The Novavax NVX-CoV2373 vaccine is yet another type of vaccine -- a "protein subunit" vaccine -- which packages up spike proteins plus an immune response booster "adjuvant" to trigger an immune response. An explanation of how they work and are made below:

https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/what-are-protein-subunit-vaccines-and-how-could-they-be-used-against-covid-19


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Cyrrex on June 15, 2021, 01:35:43 AM
Guys, just got my first Pfizer shot about an hour ago.  I can already feel that spoons are more attracted to me.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on June 15, 2021, 08:17:59 AM
Guys, just got my first Pfizer shot about an hour ago.  I can already feel that spoons are more attracted to me.
Sorry, mutations only manifest themselves in mental adolescents.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Rasix on June 18, 2021, 01:26:25 AM
I've been back in the office for about a month now. Just a couple days a week, but this commute/campus sucks in 110 degree weather.

We're still mask mandatory, because our site isn't part of any particular common sense pilot program like "if you've not vaccinated, stay fucking home or whatever". Apparently they can do this at corporate, but not here. Funny thing is, I go into the "agile area" since I saw the door was propped open and that room has been off limits since the start of the pandemic. 3 dudes having a meeting with nary a mask in site. By the looks on their faces, you'd have thought I caught them doing some lewd.   :drill:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Chimpy on June 18, 2021, 11:18:51 PM
Maybe they were!


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on June 18, 2021, 11:22:57 PM
After a year+ of not showing my mouth and nose to anyone that isn't my wife, parents or doctor, the idea of free breathing feels pretty forbidden to me. I actually had a boxed catered lunch at work for the first time since the lockdown with another person. Both of us were vaxxed and we basically locked ourselves in the auditorium control room while we ate, but it took me a second to get comfortable with it.

Shit be weird, yo.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tale on June 19, 2021, 07:04:41 AM
To boost the covid-hit economy, our state government has given everyone 4 x $25 vouchers to spend in restaurants and on tickets to attractions, so we and some friends took our toddlers to the zoo. It was all outdoors with "covid marshals" keeping people apart, until.... a section where you went into a dark tunnel to see fish and penguins swim underwater, which was unpoliced and packed with people from all over the city who were mostly not wearing masks and breathing each other's air in the dark. Mr 2-year-old loved it, but I felt nothing but fear, picked him up and fled. Even though covid is almost absent here, plenty of other viruses are around and I don't think I'll ever accept situations like that again. We've changed. But I guess not all of us have, given the number of people in the tunnel.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on June 19, 2021, 09:15:25 AM
This is one thing where the anti-maskers almost had a point that they were distorting and misinterpreting and being characteristically stupid about, but...excessive hygienic isolation is a risk in its own right. Your immune system actually needs regular exposures to pathogens to stay tuned. There's a growing body of evidence that increases in food allergies and possibly the virulence of some viruses or other conditions is a result of too much cleanliness, too much protection of children from new foods, and too much time spent away from groups of people outside the home. Social distancing was important during this pandemic and will be important when another one comes along, but it might not be a wise general strategy for living.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tale on June 19, 2021, 11:38:47 AM
I think daycare provides all the exposure to pathogens we need :) We're all sick (a cold, not covid) for the second time in a month.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on June 19, 2021, 12:13:55 PM
Daycare, working in an office with people who have kids in daycare or in school - both of those are going to be PLENTY of exposure to viruses and bacteria just like they were before the pandemic. Holy shit, I marvel at the number of times I got sick because one of the parents who worked in the office at my old job would get it from their little crumbsnatchers then come into the office covered in sickness, or from the people who were so Type A that they refused to work from home when they were clearly contagious because they didn't want to take the time off (or didn't have stored up days). If wearing this mask among a bunch of people too nasty to even splash water on their fucking hands in the public restroom after depositing a mountain of toxic waste will keep me from catching sinus infections 2-4 times a year, I will proudly wear my mask.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on June 23, 2021, 04:17:02 PM
The CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) just had a meeting discussing the reported cases of myocarditis/pericarditis after mRNA COVID-19 vaccination. Based on their findings and discussion the CDC will be adding a warning of that risk give the "likely association", to the fact sheets for the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, but still recommends young people get vaccinated.

Various news coverage:

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/us-panel-review-heart-inflammation-cases-after-pfizer-moderna-vaccines-2021-06-23/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/06/23/cdc-finds-likely-link-between-vaccine-and-rare-heart-inflammation-but-covid-causes-it-too-and-is-a-bigger-risk/

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/23/cdc-reports-more-than-1200-cases-of-rare-heart-inflammation-after-covid-vaccine-shots.html

This is the updated page on cdc.gov about this:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/myocarditis.html

The ACIP meeting slides are here:

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/slides-2021-06.html

And the 5 hour video of the meeting is here (from CNBC, it's not on the CDC YouTube channel yet):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lc7TnFWdYzY


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: 01101010 on June 23, 2021, 04:31:24 PM
Hey I know some of those folks. I am actually working on one of Matt Daley's projects currently and he was one of the first people I met when I changed jobs back in Oct. Pretty neat to see.



Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on June 25, 2021, 11:13:10 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/B580Yqn.jpeg)


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on July 05, 2021, 05:18:19 PM
Israel’s Ministry of Health reports a drop in efficacy of Pfizer-BioNTech against Delta:

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-confirms-vaccine-less-effective-against-delta-variant-eyes-third-dose/

Quote
According to the ministry, the Pfizer vaccine’s effectiveness in preventing symptomatic COVID-19 has dropped by some 30 percent to 64%, given the spread of the Delta variant. The data shows that during May, when the strain was less prevalent, the vaccine was 94.3% effective.

The Delta variant, which is believed to be twice as contagious as the original strain of COVID-19, is thought to be responsible for 90% of new cases in Israel over the past two weeks.

The data, however, also shows that the vaccine is still highly effective against preventing serious symptoms and hospitalization. During May, that figure stood at 98.2%, and during June, it was 93%.

And from the Fortune version of this news:

https://fortune.com/2021/07/05/israel-data-plunge-efficacy-pfizer-biontech-vaccine-delta-variant/

Quote
These figures are in line with ministry data that show that many of the new cases are among people who have been vaccinated, while the number of serious cases is rising much more slowly, Ynet said. Last Friday, 55% of the newly infected had been vaccinated, the website said. As of July 4, there were 35 serious cases of coronavirus in Israel, compared with 21 on June 19.

I checked the English-language version of the Ministry of Health (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/ministry_of_health) but couldn't find the source study / data referred to above.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on July 13, 2021, 03:05:51 PM
Some additional serious side-effect warnings for the Janssen (Johnson & Johnson) vaccine.

EMA: EMA advises against use of COVID-19 Vaccine Janssen in people with history of capillary leak syndrome (https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/ema-advises-against-use-covid-19-vaccine-janssen-people-history-capillary-leak-syndrome)
Quote
EMA’s safety committee (PRAC) has recommended that people who have previously had capillary leak syndrome must not be vaccinated with COVID-19 Vaccine Janssen. The Committee also recommended that capillary leak syndrome should be added to the product information as a new side effect of the vaccine, together with a warning to raise awareness among healthcare professionals and patients of this risk.

The Committee reviewed 3 cases of capillary leak syndrome in people who had received COVID-19 Vaccine Janssen, which occurred within 2 days of vaccination. One of those affected had a history of capillary leak syndrome and two of them subsequently died.

CNN: FDA warns of potential rare neurological complication with Johnson & Johnson coronavirus vaccine (https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/12/health/johnson-vaccine-guillain-barre-syndrome-fda/index.html) (Guillain-Barré syndrome)
Quote
"Reports of adverse events following use of the Janssen COVID-19 Vaccine under emergency use authorization suggest an increased risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome during the 42 days following vaccination," the updated label reads.

"Although the available evidence suggests an association between the Janssen vaccine and increased risk of GBS, it is insufficient to establish a causal relationship. No similar signal has been identified with the Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccines," the label adds.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on July 13, 2021, 06:30:07 PM
I think I read there's been 100 cases of G-B Syndrome after the Vaccination from 160 million doses (However many doses those are of the Johnson and Johnson) That's pretty decent odds, honestly.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: MahrinSkel on July 13, 2021, 06:49:18 PM
Yeah, the extreme "adverse events" have been right at the margins of statistical significance, it's not even a certainty that the jabs are the cause.

--Dave


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Tale on July 14, 2021, 01:32:51 AM
Not sure if it's been in this thread, but the adverse event possibly associated with the Pfizer vax is myocarditis (heart wall inflammation) or pericarditis (heart's outer lining inflammation).

I spontaneously had viral pericarditis as a teenager and to date it's the most serious illness I've had. Two weeks in hospital and six months until I was fully cleared. I've since cycled over mountain ranges many times and my heart seems just fine, but it's a little daunting to have that history and a Pfizer vax due in 12 days.

Still much rather have pericarditis again than delta covid, so I'm hoping they don't incorporate "do you have a history of..."into the safety questions by then 😉


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Chimpy on July 15, 2021, 10:02:26 AM
The cases reported were mostly in male recipients under 35.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Rasix on July 26, 2021, 03:06:26 PM
Mother-in-law's open heart surgery today was cancelled due to the ICU beds filling up with COVID patients. Thanks, fucknuts. Those leaking valves aren't going to fix themselves.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sky on July 26, 2021, 03:59:53 PM
Mother-in-law's open heart surgery today was cancelled due to the ICU beds filling up with COVID patients. Thanks, fucknuts. Those leaking valves aren't going to fix themselves.
Let's be clear UNVACCINATED patients.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Rasix on July 26, 2021, 04:54:15 PM
While being more liberal and science minded than Phoenix, we've still got our share of cowboys and live-free-and-die types all over Tucson. Kooky rich white moms aren't helping either.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Sir T on July 26, 2021, 09:09:33 PM
I have a friend in Dublin that has needed double hip replacements for a couple of years now, but the hospital wont even examine her becasue they are snowed under with Covid Covid. She went into the hospital with a lung infectiona couple of weeks ago and they basically refused to even discuss her hips and hack sent her home despite her not bieng able to walk, becasue they hospital is full of Delta Young people infections. The nurse told her its not the old people anymore, as they are either vaccinated or protecting themselves, its the under 40s now as they havent gotten vaccinated and they never stopped having parties and socializing.

She said everyone looked tired and stressed out, and there was a guy who looked 30 coughing up blood clots in a room behind a clear partition.

I'm still masking up despite by full 2 Vaxx status.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Zetor on August 09, 2021, 12:44:45 PM
Since the govt is now allowing Hungarians to get a second vaccine if they want as long as at least 3 months have passed since the first vac's last dose (and many people got 2 doses of Sinopharm, which is not very effective and not accepted anywhere in the world for travel), I got Janssen as my vac #3 today. Bow down before The Vaxman, Lord Of 5G!

... I'm pretty sure that even with the power of these 3 vaccinations combined, any of you who got two Moderna or Pfizer/BioNTech doses are better protected than me  :awesome_for_real:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Samwise on August 09, 2021, 02:44:36 PM
I got the J&J in March and then got myself a Pfizer shot in July after I started seeing stories about doctors who'd had J&J opting to booster themselves up.  Hoping I can get some kind of booster at the next 3-month mark (maybe Novavax or a retooled Pfizer) to stay one step ahead of delta.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on August 09, 2021, 03:12:02 PM
SF General is giving out mRNA shots to J&J recipients. No idea if that'll still be the case 3 months from now. Two months appears to be the best timing for Pfizer based on a non-peer reviewed study from the UK testing dosing intervals so that's something else to consider.

https://abc7news.com/san-francisco-covid-booster-shots-zuckerberg-general-hospital-coronavirus/10933577/

https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n1875

https://www.pitch-study.org/PITCH_Dosing_Interval_23072021.pdf


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: 01101010 on September 03, 2021, 01:14:46 PM
Interesting results looking at the use of surgical masks in reducing COVID transmission in community settings.

https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2021/09/surgical-masks-covid-19.html

But of course this will be hand-waved away for freedumb reasons.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on September 03, 2021, 01:55:38 PM
Interesting results looking at the use of surgical masks in reducing COVID transmission in community settings.

https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2021/09/surgical-masks-covid-19.html

But of course this will be hand-waved away for freedumb reasons.

"A large, randomized trial led by researchers at Stanford Medicine and Yale University has found that wearing a surgical face mask over the mouth and nose is an effective way to reduce the occurrence of COVID-19 in community settings."

I would say 20% of the people I see wearing a mask don't cover their nose.  They should do a study on the effectiveness based on how people actually wear them.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Morat20 on September 03, 2021, 06:23:29 PM
Interesting results looking at the use of surgical masks in reducing COVID transmission in community settings.

https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2021/09/surgical-masks-covid-19.html

But of course this will be hand-waved away for freedumb reasons.

"A large, randomized trial led by researchers at Stanford Medicine and Yale University has found that wearing a surgical face mask over the mouth and nose is an effective way to reduce the occurrence of COVID-19 in community settings."

I would say 20% of the people I see wearing a mask don't cover their nose.  They should do a study on the effectiveness based on how people actually wear them.


Those 20% must think their nose in no way connects to their lungs.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: 01101010 on September 03, 2021, 08:35:39 PM
Interesting results looking at the use of surgical masks in reducing COVID transmission in community settings.

https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2021/09/surgical-masks-covid-19.html

But of course this will be hand-waved away for freedumb reasons.

"A large, randomized trial led by researchers at Stanford Medicine and Yale University has found that wearing a surgical face mask over the mouth and nose is an effective way to reduce the occurrence of COVID-19 in community settings."

I would say 20% of the people I see wearing a mask don't cover their nose.  They should do a study on the effectiveness based on how people actually wear them.


Those 20% must think their nose in no way connects to their lungs.

I believe they honestly believe their nose only blows down and does not contain droplets.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Samwise on September 04, 2021, 10:31:23 AM
I would say 20% of the people I see wearing a mask don't cover their nose.  They should do a study on the effectiveness based on how people actually wear them.

Why?  We already know that the way "people"* wear them doesn't really work.

I used to see that nose-hanging-out thing early in the pandemic but people around here have figured out at this point (thanks to very clear signage and fairly consistent enforcement) that if you're not covering your nose you're not actually wearing a mask, and nobody does the half-assed thing -- it's either all the way on or all the way pulled down.

* I use the term loosely, much like New Hampshire golfers wear their masks


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: HaemishM on September 04, 2021, 06:28:26 PM
The half-assery of no-nosing it is rampant around here.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Chimpy on September 04, 2021, 11:40:10 PM
I am just amazed at the people I see wearing the mask with the nose-out method since there is no benefit with breathing because they are all fucking mouth-breathers anyway  :why_so_serious:


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: eldaec on September 05, 2021, 05:59:20 AM
I don't see much no nonosing, but the stubborn minority of wearing the damn thing around their neck is a thing.

I think it is just people who would ideally like to be no-mask assholes, but are too British to deny themselves plausible deniability if challenged.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Samwise on September 05, 2021, 11:13:08 AM
Yeah, that's so if someone says "hey, put your fucking mask on" they can say "oh, I just pulled it down for a second" and maybe not get in as much trouble.

I absolutely recognize the impulse.  I figured out in high school that I could get away with not following the dress code 99% of the time as long as I had the right clothes in grabbing distance.

Having said that I don't see many no-nosers around here, I did see one the other day in the subway downtown (there are always a bunch of assholes from out of town), yakking on his phone.  I glared at him like a fucking psycho until he made eye contact with me, and then I pulled on my own mask emphatically.  He corrected himself.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on September 05, 2021, 12:07:58 PM
I would say 20% of the people I see wearing a mask don't cover their nose.  They should do a study on the effectiveness based on how people actually wear them.

Why?  We already know that the way "people"* wear them doesn't really work.

I used to see that nose-hanging-out thing early in the pandemic but people around here have figured out at this point (thanks to very clear signage and fairly consistent enforcement) that if you're not covering your nose you're not actually wearing a mask, and nobody does the half-assed thing -- it's either all the way on or all the way pulled down.

* I use the term loosely, much like New Hampshire golfers wear their masks

Why?  It's important to study how things are practiced in real world scenarios.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on September 05, 2021, 02:19:05 PM
They did. Read the study at the link.

What, you think this was a simulation in the lab? It was a large-scale study of mask-wearing in a real place.

If you want to know "well, how effective is it in a real place where some percentage of people wear the masks over the mouth but not the nose", you can make a good guess from this study. Somewhere between "vastly less effective" and "substantially less effective" sounds like a pretty good back of the envelope guess.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Trippy on September 05, 2021, 02:45:20 PM
Slog meant a study on how well masks work when you only cover your mouth. The linked study explicitly did not count as "mask-wearing" those that were wearing masks but did not cover both the mouth and hose.

Edit: the preprint study https://www.poverty-action.org/sites/default/files/publications/Mask_RCT____Symptomatic_Seropositivity_083121.pdf


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Morat20 on September 05, 2021, 04:40:55 PM
The scare mongering about the mu variant has already begun, with the "it may evade some antibodies" (per some small petri dish results) turning into "VACCINES ARE WORTHLESS WE'LL ALL DIE".

Which just goes to show 18 months into a pandemic, and news reporters still can't fucking write sensibly about viruses.

There's really limited room for COVID to avoid vaccine produced antibodies without rendering it incapable of infecting cells (they chose that spike protein for a reason), and while a more virulent strain like Delta can sort of bypass that by throwing heavier viral loads at vaccinated people (overwhelming their ability to no-sell infection instantly with their current antibodies), there's a reason breakthrough cases are generally so mild. The antibodies created by the vaccine are more than sufficient to handle Delta.

The problem is if your antibody load is low (because, for instance, you've goner 6 to 8 months without being exposed to COVID since vaccination). You don't have enough to strangle Delta before it gets replicating and it takes time for your body to pump out more in response to an active infection.

That doesn't even get into mu trying to spread in an ecosystem where Delta is raging, and I sincerely doubt mu is more virulent than Delta.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: slog on September 05, 2021, 05:37:20 PM
Slog meant a study on how well masks work when you only cover your mouth. The linked study explicitly did not count as "mask-wearing" those that were wearing masks but did not cover both the mouth and hose.

Edit: the preprint study https://www.poverty-action.org/sites/default/files/publications/Mask_RCT____Symptomatic_Seropositivity_083121.pdf


Thank you. I feel it's important for our leaders to have an understanding of how a mask policy will work in the real world and what level of enforcement is required.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on September 05, 2021, 05:51:29 PM
Eh, I honestly think the gold standard is: this actually works, based on real-world conditions. Enough to be worth doing. If it turns out that in real life, some folks won't do what works, well, we're already there with vaccines, which work to a huge degree and yet we have people dosing themselves with horse dewormer to own the libs. Go on, own me. Own me some more.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: 01101010 on September 05, 2021, 07:30:52 PM
I can't wait till the news comes about an asteroid colliding with the Earth. I honestly am hoping the scientific community can keep a lid on it till the last minute because if this is what a virus outbreak does? It'll be precious what the actual end of the world will bring.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Samwise on September 05, 2021, 08:01:25 PM
Sure, we could build a laser to zap the asteroid before it hits us and ends all human life -- but at what cost to our freedoms?


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on September 05, 2021, 08:03:26 PM
I mean, what if they have to slow production of all-terrain vehicles or guns for a year or something because of the laser components? Why should we let liberal socialists decide to privilege their government laser? Who knows who they'd fire it at next? Probably a NASCAR race or a church!


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Cyrrex on September 06, 2021, 12:11:52 AM
Who knows who they'd fire it at next? Probably a NASCAR race or a church!

You forgot unborn fetuses.


Title: Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19
Post by: Khaldun on September 09, 2021, 10:03:31 PM
Who is going to get unborn fetuses little tiny guns that will let them kill a mother who might abort them? Not doctors or medical researchers! Nobody trusts them!