LOTRO NDA has been lifted.

[Lantyssa]

I suppose they wouldn't appreciate it if I did it for you, huh?

[Hound]

I figured this was worth bumping just for the numbers predictions. Looks like Turbine is more optimistic than any of us

http://lotrovault.ign.com/View.php?view=Articles.Detail&id=42

Open Beta plans to open the Flood Gates

As far as these guys are concerned, Friday, Open Beta, is launch day… and they are psyched about where this game is headed. With a possible 600k heading into Open Beta, and 1 Million beta keys expected to be added over the course of OB, this team is looking at one of the largest playerbases that an NA-based MMOG has ever seen.

[Nebu]

Open Beta plans to open the Flood Gates

As far as these guys are concerned, Friday, Open Beta, is launch day… and they are psyched about where this game is headed. With a possible 600k heading into Open Beta, and 1 Million beta keys expected to be added over the course of OB, this team is looking at one of the largest playerbases that an NA-based MMOG has ever seen.

Take that, Vanguard!

Funny thing is that I played LotRO in beta and actually had more fun in Vanguard.  LotRO is definately more polished and much more visually apealling... but the gameplay is still pretty run-of-the-mill fantasy mmog.

[Rasix]

I figured this was worth bumping just for the numbers predictions. Looks like Turbine is more optimistic than any of us

http://lotrovault.ign.com/View.php?view=Articles.Detail&id=42

Open Beta plans to open the Flood Gates

As far as these guys are concerned, Friday, Open Beta, is launch day… and they are psyched about where this game is headed. With a possible 600k heading into Open Beta, and 1 Million beta keys expected to be added over the course of OB, this team is looking at one of the largest playerbases that an NA-based MMOG has ever seen.

This has the potential to blow up badly in their face.  Yah, I know Turbine's done a much better technical job with this one, but I see the risk of disaster here and just wince.

Give people 1 million beta keys and have your game melt under the pressure.  Have those cross over WoW players look around and not see anything different worth staying for except for a brand new grind.  Watch as the LOTR fanbois flood in and wonder why the hell they're killing rats and picking flowers, and why they can't be GANDALF.  Cry bitter tears when your beta->retail conversion hovers at 10%.

I would have kept this small and under control.  But what the hell do I know? Perhaps this is how you take dead aim at WoW. /shrug

[tazelbain]

Sounds like more of a promotion than a beta.

What kind of server size are these guys going for?

[Nyght]

They have named 7 initial servers for the start of open beta on Friday, which will be for pre-order (founders) only.

This seems a bit more modest then 600K.

Of coarse, many more could be ready in the wings.

My belief is that this journalist's enthusiasm got out in front of him a bit and what is implied in the article was not quite what was intended.

[Nija]

But what the hell do I know? Perhaps this is how you take dead aim at WoW. /shrug

If you know that 2+3=5 then you're off to a better start than Turbine is.

I'm more interested in THIS at the moment.

[Hound]

I think that must be the European and N American open combined but who knows. I do forsee the phrase

you are number xxx in the que

on my screen a lot in the next week or so. Over the course of the closed beta they have really been pumping up the capacity on the 2 servers they have been running. I would not want to guess what capacity each is capable of, but it is a hell of a lot more than it was in November just judging from the amount of players I see ingame.

[Nyght]

I think that must be the European and N American open combined but who knows. I do forsee the phrase

you are number xxx in the que

on my screen a lot in the next week or so. Over the course of the closed beta they have really been pumping up the capacity on the 2 servers they have been running. I would not want to guess what capacity each is capable of, but it is a hell of a lot more than it was in November just judging from the amount of players I see ingame.

This I can buy.

I mean server capacity should have seen some improvement over all these years. Our old numbers of 3k or so peak must be a little weak.

Plus, they instance out levels 1 to 6. That must help a some.

But I still believe 600k to 1 mil is the anticipated free trials over the course of a one month open beta... not some prediction of subscriptions.

[Alkiera]

But what the hell do I know? Perhaps this is how you take dead aim at WoW. /shrug

If you know that 2+3=5 then you're off to a better start than Turbine is.

I'm more interested in THIS at the moment.

Flagship Studios... isn't that the group that picked up the Fate developer?  The artwork looks similar.  I am intrigued by screenshots, but there is nothing to speak of on the site.

--
Alkiera

[Falconeer]

Flagship Studios = Bill Roper = The Original Warcraft (and Diablo, and Starcraft) Man

[Hound]

But I still believe 600k to 1 mil is the anticipated free trials over the course of a one month open beta... not some prediction of subscriptions.

I should have quoted more of the link, the 1 million is a upper end guess of beta keys, and the 600K is a soft figure for the preorders. My bad.

[Hound]

damn double posted again

[Nyght]

... and the 600K is a soft figure for the preorders. My bad.

I don't think is says that. Here are the words again "possible 600k heading into Open Beta".

I did read the original article.

[Hound]

... and the 600K is a soft figure for the preorders. My bad.

I don't think is says that. Here are the words again "possible 600k heading into Open Beta".

I did read the original article.

I guess it is subject to interpretation I read the possible 600K heading into open beta as preorders starting Friday and the one million keys as public open keys. It's held the number one position over at EB/Gamestop for 6 or more weeks now and been in the top 5 at Amazon.com about the same length of time. I guess we will find out over the next couple of weeks. If they pull even close to those figures you know they will be doing some crowing.

[Simond]

I'm getting the strangest sense of deja vu from this thread: "It's just a polished Diku that brings nothing new to the genre."

...oh yeah. Figured it out. Late summer 2004, World of Warcraft open beta. :D

Turbine have (somehow) made a game with solid diku mechanics, a decent game engine, and the fantasy license. Half a million subs is plausible, and a million is possible - especially with the clever pricing deals they've put together for pre-orders.

[Murgos]

Half a million subs at launch is certainly plausible, I think.  More?  Sure, why not?  It is a solid, polished and well envisioned Diku.  I don't see anything there that is less than WoW was at launch.

It's a Diku though and I'm going to take a miss on it.

[Nyght]

Well, OK. I just find it kinda surprising given the luke warm responce in many places.

600k on day/weekend one is WoW numbers.

So is this capable of spliting off 1/3 to 1/2 of the market? If true, SOE certainly takes a big part of the hit... again. It makes those price increases look increasingly like a very bad timing.

The server count come next Monday morning will certainly give us a huge clue.

[Sky]

With the bump in pricing for the Station Pass, I'm considering a quick pre-order of LotRO. Not sure whether I want to shell out the box cost, but I've cancelled the Station Pass (which would incur the higher charge in a week or two) and Gaming Season isn't quite over yet.

[shiznitz]

The Station Pass price increase just seems more ill-timed every day. It is the perfect reason for someone to take a month off from SOE and try LotRO. The $199 lifetime sub is less than 7 months of Station Pass. If LotRO is only mildly fun, it is a great deal.  Turbine's marketing program should highlight this specifically.

[HaemishM]

600k? 1 Million?

I want some of whatever they are smoking. NOW.

[Nebu]

$199 for a lifetime sub.  While that seems like a good deal on the surface, I don't honestly think I could stay with any MMOG that long ever again.  I guess for someone where WoW was their first mmo it may not be a bad deal.  I've found that none of the new games can seem to capture my interest longer than a month or two anymore.  I guess my affinity for things like the sun may be ruining my gaming affliction. 

[Nyght]

If they called it a free trial with a gift of reduced pricing if you agree to try the product in the next sixty days, would you still think the numbers are way out?

Sometimes people aren't as stupid as they seem to be and many seemed to have figured out that they get the option for reduced pricing and a month of free play with little or nothing up front.

Hell, I might go pick up half a dozen preorder boxes and Ebay 'em out towards then end of open beta.

[Nija]

1) it's a Tubine game
2) it's Lord of the Rings. It's the SimBeru syndrome all over again, but this time it's SimLegolas.
3) Turbine. A life time subscription really hammers this point home . Didn't they offer those for AC2 as well?

There will probably be a lot of boxes moved initially, due to the success of the recent hack and slash LOTR games and not to mention the movies and the novels. There won't be a lot of retained subs. Expect exaggerated figures based on box sales.

[Sky]

Dude...$10/mo. That's $5 less than friggin' Planetside! For a big-name franchise.

My supervisor is a huge Tolkein geek and is feverishly hoping they don't make a mac version (thus ending his marriage and career).

LotRO will probably be huge. I'm not a big fan of the genre and I'm in. Hell, with the money I'm saving by ditching the SOE pass, it'll pay for the box in two months. Big fuckup by SOE, but I'm sure they have their reasons.

And I'm sure I'm in the vast minority, but I have a hard time paying $40 for an expansion to a game I'd already played to (almost (58)) max level (WoW). So between the high cost of BC (imo) and the SOE pass bump, LotRO is headed for a perfect launch window.

[Signe]

$199 for a lifetime sub.  While that seems like a good deal on the surface, I don't honestly think I could stay with any MMOG that long ever again.  I guess for someone where WoW was their first mmo it may not be a bad deal.  I've found that none of the new games can seem to capture my interest longer than a month or two anymore.  I guess my affinity for things like the sun may be ruining my gaming affliction. 

Poor Nebu.  What was the last MMO you spent a life time playing?  Exactly how long is a Nebu life, anyway?  Snarky me aside... I agree.  I don't think I would get value for my money, either.  I am so having the same problem staying interested in any of the newer games, too, for any amount of time.  LOTRO is a nicely done game and even has some different bits but, I guess, it's just not different enough.  I have no motivation for any of them except to pop in to CoX once in a while for an hour or so. 

I also ditched the Station Pass but I did it when they increased it the last time, I think.

[Sky]

I have no motivation for any of them except to pop in to CoX once in a while for an hour or so.

[Signe]

Ok.  I understand that because I said "CoX" that it makes it sound like some sort of sexual innuendo or something.  I can't figure out how, though.  If I substitute cocks for CoX, it says:  "pop into cocks once in a while for an hour or so."  I'M STILL NOT UNDERSTANDING!!!  I haven't said anything about sucking anything or tossing any lettuce or spreading anything... or have I?  Ack!  This is like that vagina joke everyone was laughing at that I still don't understand, isn't it?   

[Lantyssa]

Don't worry, I do it all the time.  (See Merusk's sig for examples.)

[Sky]

If making sense were mandatory, we'd all be fucked!

[WindupAtheist]

signe enjoys cox lol

[Hound]

I can't see me playing more than 3 or 4 months in a row either however I am going for the 200 dollar deal because I can see me playing it off and on for several years. They are already planning some free and some paid expansions beginning as early as a month or two after release. Here is a map posted on another forum that shows roughly what is in the original release tinted in red.

http://img185.imageshack.us/img185/4296/lotromap3ob4.jpg

By the way comparing this one to AC2 is like comparing the Pinto to the Mustang. I have serious doubts as to much over 500K at release also but given time unless Turbine completely loses their minds and decides to commit digital hari-kari it could happen.

[Nija]

A truly auspicious post there. My AC2 character name was, honest to god, Harakiri.

They are releasing without Mordor?

[Hound]

A truly auspicious post there. My AC2 character name was, honest to god, Harakiri.

They are releasing without Mordor?

~chuckle ~ No not even all of Eriador is in at release. There is a assload of content here left to develop and a lot of the areas were just skimmed over by old JRR. I am looking forward to Moria as the mother of all dungeons, and perhaps horse mounted combat with a new human class wiith Rohan. The northren wastes have all sorts of possibilities as does Haradwaith, Rhun, and Khand. I am hoping Forlindon, Harlindon and Forochel will be fleshed in as freebies over the next few months before a paid expansion is released.


Maybe I am just a fanboy but this is the first game I have felt good about in a long time. I cannot even see SOE fucking this one up...well maybe that is going too far. I saw the writing on the wall with AC2, I was only surprised that more people did not. I wasn't even in the beta and the leaks fortold it's fate well before release. But that was ok I was stupid enough to believe SOE would fix SWG.

[Venkman]

To hit 600k is saying that in the few territories LoTRO is going to launch they are going to do better than WoW did in those territories in the first year. That's pretty ballsy. They do NOT come with game-fanbois, merely a whole bunch of literature nuts who are going to grudgingly accept or villify loudly. The rest are the normal "I need a new fix" crowd enamored by the more-realistic graphics, a familiar game system and the usual round of minor tweaks.

If they break half a mil ever, I'll be surprised.

I was way wrong about WoW too, like a lot of people. But that's mostly because the relevance of their innate competitive advantage was not clearly understood. Most of that does not exist here. Except the graphics and diku.