MMORPG.com Article about MMO Burnout

[Margalis]

There are innumerable combinations of minor success, major success, major failure and minor failure that will achieve those returns. One WoW certainly covers a dozen Horizons with moneyhats left over, but there is nothing inherently wrong in backing a dozen Eve Online-style niche games. I bet Eve has a 25% ROI at this point - but that is just a guess.

That is true, but for some reason VCs don't tend to operate in that way.

[HaemishM]

Haemish has said it before, but I'll repeat it:

"Niche, baby."

I think the moment enough developers (and also VCs)  realize they don't need to be pulling in $85m+ a month from subs in order to be a success is the moment we'll begin to see better games.

Actually, it's "Embrace the niche, bitches."

But yours will do.

[shiznitz]

There are innumerable combinations of minor success, major success, major failure and minor failure that will achieve those returns. One WoW certainly covers a dozen Horizons with moneyhats left over, but there is nothing inherently wrong in backing a dozen Eve Online-style niche games. I bet Eve has a 25% ROI at this point - but that is just a guess.

That is true, but for some reason VCs don't tend to operate in that way.

How does one explain the VC investment in Turbine then?! A retarded chimp can tell Turbine is never going to deliver a WoW, let alone an EQ1. All VCs are not created equal.

[HaemishM]

I'm still trying to figure out how one can explain Turbine getting both the D&D license AND the Tolkien license.

[shiznitz]

I am sure their method of persuasion is unfit for discussion on these family boards.

[Margalis]

I'm sure the VCs thought that Turbine could potentially make huge money, especially with LOTRO.

[El Gallo]

World of Warcraft is the best thing to ever happen to the industry, because it's the first game that actually appears to have been created by adults with a plan rather than a gaggle of stoned teenagers in a basement somewhere.  Smedco, Koster, McQuiad, Turbine, Funcom, Mythic & co were all the same: let's slap together some half-assed shit and hope it maybe works because our customers are too goddamn stupid to demand an actual product.  Amateur hour is over and whatnot.  Things will move ahead when other companies run by actual adults step up to the plate and start dropping $100m+ on games with a reasonable expectation of making much more than that back.

Also, I don't think the "Diku" style of WoW will never be supplanted in the fantasy genre.  Kill-loot-level has been the rock-solid cornerstone of fantasy computer games since Akalabeth.  I think the bulk of non-diku growth of the MMO genre (which I think will be huge) will be in Sims/Animal Crossing type games (not that they don't seem to have diku-esque elements themselves).

People want dynamic worlds, random world events, a mixture of a player/npc economy that reacts to supply and demand (UO's original version), no more stupid levels that keep you from gaming with friends, etc.

I think that people who say they want that are a minority.  I really, really think that people who actually want that and would enjoy it if they got it are a vanishingly tiny minority.  You are right about demanding smaller contiguous chunks of time, though.  Which is another reason WoW is such a monsterous success.

[Soln]

honestly?  I'm pretty sure people don't know what they want.  I've always thought that the customer is pretty often wrong, and need to be helped to understand what is good, or what it is they really need. 

[edlavallee]

honestly?  I'm pretty sure people don't know what they want.  I've always thought that the customer is pretty often wrong, and need to be helped to understand what is good, or what it is they really need. 

And with that thinking GM has gone from owning the American market to a mere bit player. Good companies do a little of both -- listening to the customer to see what they want and education to teach them what is possible.