The Meta-Console War.

[schild]

Sent in by Litigator.

[Trippy]

Well I liked the beginning but I don't think the point Litigator was trying to make was well made.

If Microsoft did intend for the Xbox 360 to be a "life style" device rather than just something to play video games on where are the music downloads from the MSN Music store (oops missing HD)? How come I can't copy music files from my PC to the Xbox 360 even if I do have a HD (Media Connect can only stream music)? If competing with Apple in the music business is so important how come the Xbox 360 didn't come with a HD (oops missing yet again) when that's the only way to actually get some personal music onto it (ripping the CD on the Xbox 360 to the HD)? How come I can't play my iTunes songs on my iPod through the Xbox 360 (okay that's Apple fault but users won't understand that)?

Basically to do anything useful with your multimedia you still need a PC connected to your Xbox 360 and now you are in the same situation as Apple (need a PC/Mac to use iTunes) except that Microsoft doesn't have the neato cool portable music player device like Apple does so how is that going to work?

On the other side, Sony is a company that clearly does understand the "life style" marketplace (heck their online store is even called "SonyStyle") even if the entertainment bean counters have taken over Sony's corporate culture and relegated the once dominant consumer electronics leader to a follower to other companies such as Samsung and Apple. For example, just like the PS2 with its DVD drive jump started the Japanese DVD industry the PS3 is set to the do the same for Blu-Ray. Sony did get burned trying to turn the PS2 into a media center device with the PSX but that did show they at least were thinking hard about the problem (it was just too dang expensive, even for the Japanese) and I expect them to try and do the same with the PS3 later on down the road when hardware costs are a lot lower. The music side is a lot more complicated for Sony, though, with Sony Music on one side crushing any serious attempts to enter this newfangled digital music download and player business and Sony's "Not Invented Here" mentality (ATRAC and MagicGate for teh win!) finishing off anything that does manage to somehow escape from the ever-present gaze of Sony Music.

So Microsoft's wedged between companies that have far more experience in the consumer electronics business and nothing they've done with the Xbox 360 so far indicates to me that they have a strategy in place to beat either Sony or Apple. Of course there's still time for Microsoft to implement stuff before the PS3 comes out but their MSN Music store, for example, has been online for like 2 years now so they had plenty of time to get something working with the Xbox 360 at launch (oops missing HD again) but didn't so it's unclear what's going on over there.

And coming back full-circle: with Apple expected to enter the video downloading business in a big way come February 28 I fully expect them at some point to reposition/redesign the Intel-based Mac Mini as a "digital convergence" device turning it into a Media Center PC competitor except of course it'll have Apple's "it just works" software and hardware integration making it far more user-friendly than a Windows-based competitor.

[HaemishM]

Microsoft's strategy ISN'T ABOUT THE 360. The 360 is a transitional device at best. It's another step in their long road to get a set top box in everyone's homes that runs some flavor of Microsoft controlled software.

They don't WANT the 360 to be a media device that disseminates downloaded media to a PC. The very copyable nature of PC's is what they don't want. It's "hurt" them in OS and software sales. So why not make a device that games as well as (debatable) PC, has online capabilities like a PC without all the nasty "I pirate shit because I can" connotations?

It ain't the 360, but the 360 is a precursor to it. Look for the 720. Or whatever they call the NextBox. Sony delaying the PS3 to make Blu-Ray viable is stupid. DVD's are a transitional, backup media as well. Do you think in 10 years you'll still need to buy all your movies on DVD?

[Sairon]

When I watched the xbox 360 press conference from last years E3 I also got the feeling that they were aiming at turning the console into a life style. There was nothing, at all, that impressed me about it though. The community bullshit etc provides nothing for me. Okay, I might not belong to the targeted market, but Xbox 360 will NEVER be like iPod. The music industry simply has a waaaay higher coolnes factor, and the iPod has created a certain image which the 360 never can reach. The only way the Xbox 360 could gain really large sales apart from being a machine for gaming is if it could achive something special with the movie watching crowd. I don't know much about that side though when it comes to the 360.

As for the 360 as simply a console, it's not looking very good from my point of view. I see no signs of playstation people geting a 360, all of my buddies who has owned a playstation in the past is aiming for the PS3. That's hardly bulletproof market research though. As for the technical capabilities, if the Cell processor is anything like the PR machine over at sony is making it out to be it's more like comparing a NES to a gaming rig from 2006.

Also, I don't see how you can prefer Splinters Cells Generic_Action_Movie_Story_no64357 infront of Metal Gears story.

If the market out grows DVD before this generation is over Blue-Ray will win by default. HD-DVD or whatever it was called has already lost the race since it's not default for the 360. I don't think there would be any problems with filling a Blue-Ray disc even today. Just have better quality music, better quality textures etc and the numbers will grow fairly fast. Graphics over all is taking a fairly large leap so the storage space might come in handy.

I do own a Playstation 2 btw and not an xbox so I miiiiight be a little biased 

[Hoax]

If the theory he was trying to put out there was that Sony and M$ (fuck you I still like typing that) have moved well beyond the petty "console wars" and into a larger arena then I think he did a good job.  As someone who doesn't really care, at least at this time, I found it to be an interesting read.

So nice job, and thanks.

[Murgos]

I'm not so sure about the XBox 360 being meant to compete with the iPod.  The Xbox was released long before the iPod became such a phenomena and was clearly the first iteration of MS's Embrace, Extend and Exterminate corporate philosophy.  The XBox is obviously a consumer electronics device as is the iPod but I think any other similarity stops there.  In fact I don't see them as competing technologies at all they each have their own niche.  Content delivery is certainly one of the upcoming Next Big Things and iTunes and XBox live are both positioned in that market space but so are MANY other vendors and iTunes may be leading in the music and video (are they leading in video?  Pron is probably waay out in front here) there is a lot more stuff that can be delivered direct to your home.

Possibly the biggest thing the XBox delivers into your home is simply MS branding into homes that have no previous MS experience.  We tend to think in US and European terms but how many Desktop PC's are going to be purchased by 3rd world countries and families in the next 20 years?  Linux is a big threat there and the more presence MS has the more likely they are to walk out of that battle intact.  Don't even begin to think they aren't aware that their 100 billion dollar core market is vulnerable.

Steve Jobs is not the new Bill Gates.  Bill Gates is still operating on a different plane than Steve, MS rules the desktop market.  Steve has merely managed a foray into consumer electronics and media there are several other bigger fish in both those seas.  The video game industry is not a 'multimillion' dollar industry its a multiBILLION dollar industry that last year generated more income than Hollywood and continues to grow at a much faster rate.  Compared to MS, Apple could have the ENTIRE music and movie industry and still be considered bush league.

I don't even think MS is all that interested in the consumer electronics market to be honest if MS starts marketing branded TV's, home theater and stereo equipment I might change my mind but otherwise they are just paddling around in the shallow end of a trillion dollar industry as just a byproduct of focusing on another sector altogether.

One last thing, there is a another possibly even bigger was being fought here (certainly larger than the yet to be begun Blu-Ray vs HDDVD battle) and thats IBM vs. teh w0rld.  Call it how you like but IBM is going to sell 10's of MILLIONS of PowerPC and Cell processors over then next few years in the form of XBox 360's and PS3's and what are people going to see when they run those processors?  The highest of the high end graphics and gameplay and when the next gen Power and Cell chips come around after that don't be surprised to see an offering from Big Blue into the Desktop & Server Markets with a Linux based clone of OSX on it (projecting 6 to 10 years out).

[Samwise]

M$ (fuck you I still like typing that)

Your grief title is well deserved.

[Fabricated]

Microsoft couldn't afford to buy Capcom or Namco, nevermind neither of those companies would ever ever sell to them. Also, as far as I can tell Blu-Ray has pretty much won the war of the HD formats. The issue with Blu-Ray though is argument over whatever draconian DRM is going to go into it to prevent you from basically owning stuff you paid money for.

Also, is Microsoft making a profit yet on the 360? The original Xbox was a gigantic hole Microsoft dumped their money into in order to snag that ever important "retarded frat boy" demographic. If the 360 turns out to be another money pit, will their stockholders be so hot on MS continuing to try and buy their way to the top of the industry?

[HaemishM]

Also, I don't see how you can prefer Splinters Cells Generic_Action_Movie_Story_no64357 infront of Metal Gears story.

Perhaps because Splinter Cell didn't require a PHD in Nerd Pretentiousness Wankery to enjoy?

I loved Metal Gear Solid 2, but I've seen more coherent thoughts from stoned, angsty college philosophy majors who have just lost their girlfriend than what passed for a story in MGS2.

[Fabricated]

Also, I don't see how you can prefer Splinters Cells Generic_Action_Movie_Story_no64357 infront of Metal Gears story.

Perhaps because Splinter Cell didn't require a PHD in Nerd Pretentiousness Wankery to enjoy?

I loved Metal Gear Solid 2, but I've seen more coherent thoughts from stoned, angsty college philosophy majors who have just lost their girlfriend than what passed for a story in MGS2.

MGS3 is much better in this regard. It is also, coincidentally, much much better than any of the Splinter Cell series.

[Murgos]

Microsoft couldn't afford to buy Capcom or Namco...

Uh, huh?

Capcom market cap = 78 billion Yen or about 800 million US.

Namco Bandai is 325 billion yen or about 3.5 billion US.

MS$ is 275+ billion US.

Microsoft could buy either company right out from under them and not even blink; why on earth they would want to is another matter.  I thnk I read on Cringley a while back that MS is sitting on a $40 BILLION war chest just waiting for an opportunity to come along.

P.S.  Total time to look up references?  About 45 seconds.  You might want to try it sometime.

try entering "<company> market cap" in any search utility.

edit: Also, wtf Blu-Ray won already?  Neither one has even been released to market.  Your report of HD-DVD's demise is a bit premature, to say the least.

[Litigator]

Xbox Live is not trying to take music away from iTunes.  It's trying to take video, and it can, because video on an iPod is a gimmick rather than something that people use constantly, like the music. Xbox Live is already connected to your television, and that makes it better for video.  ITunes made perfect sense on a PC as an tool for organizing all those songs, and the portable iPod device made storing music on the PC make sense.

Making the desktop computer a "media convergence device" is a dicey proposition at best. People don't want to look at spreadsheets on their televisions, and they don't want to watch movies on their computers.  Likewise, people want to sit at the desk to do work and on the couch to watch movies. These are obvious problems without obvious solutions for the media convergence device. Also, piracy. It's true that, as a grand scheme for replacing retail DVD and retail video games, Microsoft's pieces are not fully in place. Most obvious is the fact that, with a 20GB hard drive, the Xbox isn't going to store a lot of HD quality video content.

I have no idea what Microsoft's answer to this is going to be, but it took Apple five years to go from the iPod and iTunes to the Apple Music Store as you know it today. It may be that the objective of the Xbox 360 is merely to get people subscribed to the service and to get them started buying things on Live Marketplace, with the World Domination step to occur on future hardware at some undetermined future time.

The PS3, though is all about Blu-Ray, right nowy. If people buy PS3s at the rate they bought even second-place consoles, the PS3 will obliterate the competing HD-DVD format by default.  If the console is an end unto itself, putting Blu-Ray in makes no sense. When PS2 came out, games were regularly sprawling across four CDs, so moving to higher capacity media was a logical solution. But even the most sophisticated games today fit on one DVD disc.

Console design is all about efficiency, and packing the most power into the design while keeping the price as low as you can. Taken on its own terms, installing an expensive drive like the Blu-Ray into a console isn't merely inefficient; it's a kind of sabotage on the console.  Still, Sony is betting that there will be a disc based successor to DVD, and owning that format is worth risking the leading console brand.    

[Murgos]

Console design is all about efficiency, and packing the most power into the design while keeping the price as low as you can. Taken on its own terms, installing an expensive drive like the Blu-Ray into a console isn't merely inefficient; it's a kind of sabotage on the console.  Still, Sony is betting that there will be a disc based successor to DVD, and owning that format is worth risking the leading console brand.   

I think you are overestimating the cost of including a Blu-Ray reader into the PS3.  It's a proprietary device built in Sony's own fabs, cost of production is probably in the low 10's of dollars.  R&D costs may be several times that but there are a HUGE number of other consumer electronics applications that that cost will be amortized over.  Winning the next gen disc race is obviously important but I seriously doubt if the PS3 is seen internally as simply a Blu-Ray delivery device.

[Fabricated]

Microsoft couldn't afford to buy Capcom or Namco...

Uh, huh?

Capcom market cap = 78 billion Yen or about 800 million US.

Namco Bandai is 325 billion yen or about 3.5 billion US.

MS$ is 275+ billion US.

Microsoft could buy either company right out from under them and not even blink; why on earth they would want to is another matter.  I thnk I read on Cringley a while back that MS is sitting on a $40 BILLION war chest just waiting for an opportunity to come along.

P.S.  Total time to look up references?  About 45 seconds.  You might want to try it sometime.

try entering "<company> market cap" in any search utility.

edit: Also, wtf Blu-Ray won already?  Neither one has even been released to market.  Your report of HD-DVD's demise is a bit premature, to say the least.

You seem to be confusing market cap with liquid assets there. Also, with any large scale buyout it will cost much more than just 51% of a company's stock to gain ownership or any significant control considering the majority stockholders will want more than just their stock's straight worth.

Also, on Blu-Ray.

http://news.designtechnica.com/featured_article35.html

[Litigator]

Console design is all about efficiency, and packing the most power into the design while keeping the price as low as you can. Taken on its own terms, installing an expensive drive like the Blu-Ray into a console isn't merely inefficient; it's a kind of sabotage on the console.  Still, Sony is betting that there will be a disc based successor to DVD, and owning that format is worth risking the leading console brand.   

I think you are overestimating the cost of including a Blu-Ray reader into the PS3.  It's a proprietary device built in Sony's own fabs, cost of production is probably in the low 10's of dollars.  R&D costs may be several times that but there are a HUGE number of other consumer electronics applications that that cost will be amortized over.  Winning the next gen disc race is obviously important but I seriously doubt if the PS3 is seen internally as simply a Blu-Ray delivery device.

I'm not an expert on these. I just know what I read about them in features about what was displayed at the CES show.

http://www.cnet.com/4520-11405_1-6415593-1.html

They seem to be expensive to make now. Whether that's a problem of high production costs or low manufacturing capacity driving up price, I have no idea. However, the cost factor for the near future seems substantially higher than DVD.

[Sairon]

Also, I don't see how you can prefer Splinters Cells Generic_Action_Movie_Story_no64357 infront of Metal Gears story.

Perhaps because Splinter Cell didn't require a PHD in Nerd Pretentiousness Wankery to enjoy?

I loved Metal Gear Solid 2, but I've seen more coherent thoughts from stoned, angsty college philosophy majors who have just lost their girlfriend than what passed for a story in MGS2.

Might be, but it was still a more entertaining and intresting story than Splinter Cell, atleast the first Splinter Cell, haven't even played the others. Super agent against evul middle eastern people, how original.

[HaemishM]

I disagree with what you said.

Also, Sam Fisher molested Snake's mother. BECAUSE HE COULD.

[schild]

Yea, you have to be a elitist wanker that makes me look like a carebear to truly enjoy Kojima's nonsense over Hocking's storytelling at UBISoft.

Also, the controls in MGS are ass compared to Splinter Cell.

Also, Metal Gear Solid 4 is SUPER AGENT AGAINST EVUL MIDDLE EASTERN PEOPLE.

Splinter Cell did it first, kekela^_^.

[HaemishM]

Also, the controls in MGS are ass compared to Splinter Cell.

I will say that I loved MSG2's sword fighting mechanics. MMOG's need to adapt that, somehow.

[schild]

Also, the controls in MGS are ass compared to Splinter Cell.

I will say that I loved MSG2's sword fighting mechanics. MMOG's need to adapt that, somehow.

NO, BAD HAEM. They need to adopt Mount & Blade's stuff. I don't want spilled Konami blood anywhere near the MMOG genre.

[Sairon]

I don't like this Sam Fisher guy  :-(

[schild]

I don't like this Sam Fisher guy :-(

He doesn't like you either, and you're next.

[Murgos]

You seem to be confusing market cap with liquid assets there. Also, with any large scale buyout it will cost much more than just 51% of a company's stock to gain ownership or any significant control considering the majority stockholders will want more than just their stock's straight worth.

No I'm not.  MS is more than 2 orders of magnitude larger than either of those companies, purchasing either or both would not be a major stretch.  I did mention that MS has a 40 Billion dollar warchest (I.e. liquid assests)?  Yes I did.  Have you been smoking dope?  You aren't making any sense.  Quit trying to defend an undefensible position.

Also, on Blu-Ray.

http://news.designtechnica.com/featured_article35.html

Err. OK?  So after reading an article with positive Blu-ray spin I am supposed to go shovel dirt for HD-DVD's grave?  Sure, Blu-Ray looks nice and rosy but it still isn't teh winnar, neither format has hit the market yet.

[schild]

Didn't Vivid and a few other porn studios announce support of Blu-Ray?

I mean really, do we have to go through that again? I guess so.

[Fabricated]

Didn't Vivid and a few other porn studios announce support of Blu-Ray?

I mean really, do we have to go through that again? I guess so.

Well, that too. I knew I should've posted the dozen or so more articles on Blu-Ray pretty much being the winner.

[Murgos]

I don't care who wins, I just think it's pretty silly to declare a winner before the race has even started.  It's not like HD-DVD doesn't also have huge backers (Time Warner, Universal, etc )or won't put up a fight.

HD-DVD is going to come out at around half the price of Blu-Ray and months earlier (from the article above), cost and timing can be pretty deciding when it comes to two almost identical things.

[Trippy]

Xbox Live is not trying to take music away from iTunes.  It's trying to take video, and it can, because video on an iPod is a gimmick rather than something that people use constantly, like the music. Xbox Live is already connected to your television, and that makes it better for video.  ITunes made perfect sense on a PC as an tool for organizing all those songs, and the portable iPod device made storing music on the PC make sense.

I agree that video on the current iPods is a gimmick given the ridiciously small screen (which still hasn't prevented Apple from selling over 8 million video downloads at $2 a pop) but again everybody expects Apple to come out with a real video iPod RSN (again probably February 28) along with a vastly expanded selection of videos including full-length movies on iTunes. With Xbox Live you can not download TV shows or movies to your non-bundled HD since MSN Music doesn't have any (and even if it did it's not even hooked up to Xbox Live) and with Media Connect you can only stream to them your Xbox 360 from an existing Windows PC. So what's Microsoft's Xbox 360 video strategy exactly? That it has a DVD player?

Edit: My local paper had a chart today stating that Apple has sold 15 million videos to date which means (assuming the chart is correct) between January 10th or so when Apple announced the 8 million download figure (with the first one downloaded in October 2005) and today they've sold another 7 million videos. At that rate they'll easily sell more than 100 million videos this year.

[Litigator]

Xbox Live is not trying to take music away from iTunes.  It's trying to take video, and it can, because video on an iPod is a gimmick rather than something that people use constantly, like the music. Xbox Live is already connected to your television, and that makes it better for video.  ITunes made perfect sense on a PC as an tool for organizing all those songs, and the portable iPod device made storing music on the PC make sense.

I agree that video on the current iPods is a gimmick given the ridiciously small screen (which still hasn't prevented Apple from selling over 8 million video downloads at $2 a pop) but again everybody expects Apple to come out with a real video iPod RSN (again probably February 28) along with a vastly expanded selection of videos including full-length movies on iTunes. With Xbox Live you can not download TV shows or movies to your non-bundled HD since MSN Music doesn't have any (and even if it did it's not even hooked up to Xbox Live) and with Media Connect you can only stream to them your Xbox 360 from an existing Windows PC. So what's Microsoft's Xbox 360 video strategy exactly? That it has a DVD player?

Edit: My local paper had a chart today stating that Apple has sold 15 million videos to date which means (assuming the chart is correct) between January 10th or so when Apple announced the 8 million download figure (with the first one downloaded in October 2005) and today they've sold another 7 million videos. At that rate they'll easily sell more than 100 million videos this year.

Not bundling the hard drive with all the Xbox systems was a tactical mistake on Microsoft's part. I think they got cold feet about the $400 price point  The "core" systems were very unpopular with the people who were buying the 360 at launch (They still sold out, but to people who would have preferred the premium systems if they could get them). The hard drive is necessary for the current Marketplace content, which includes games and trailer-length high def video. 

Obviously the hard drive is not big enough to store a lot of HD feature films, and the storage problem is going to have to be dealt with if anybody is going to realize a digitally distributed successor to DVD, as opposed to a higher capacity disc.  Maybe it can be streamed over broadband.

There's a video packaged free with almost every new "Purchase Album" option on iTunes, and sometimes more than one.  I strongly suspect that those videos are included in tallying the number of videos sold through.  It's also worth noting that Apple's video content is not high-def. As for MSN Music, Microsoft's decision not to fuse it into the XBox and the Live Marketplace probably speaks worse for MSN Music than it does for the marketplace or the box.