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Author Topic: Coronavirus / COVID-19  (Read 250976 times)
Cyrrex
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Reply #770 on: May 30, 2020, 12:21:21 AM


Edit:  If he meant that lots of people will die unnecessarily when he wrote "America is fucked" then I take it all back.  I assumed he meant America is going to collapse.  I'm thinking we will see 300,000 to 500,000 deaths, but the country as an institution will carry on as normal after that.

That is what I meant.  Covid alone will not bring Ameica down.

But America is collapsing before your eyes for a bunch of reasons already, so meh, may as well just let Covid run its course.  You literally do not have a government that can or will prevent that from happening anyway.

"...maybe if you cleaned the piss out of the sunny d bottles under your desks and returned em, you could upgrade you vid cards, fucken lusers.." - Grunk
slog
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Reply #771 on: May 30, 2020, 02:38:31 AM


Edit:  If he meant that lots of people will die unnecessarily when he wrote "America is fucked" then I take it all back.  I assumed he meant America is going to collapse.  I'm thinking we will see 300,000 to 500,000 deaths, but the country as an institution will carry on as normal after that.

That is what I meant.  Covid alone will not bring Ameica down.

But America is collapsing before your eyes for a bunch of reasons already, so meh, may as well just let Covid run its course.  You literally do not have a government that can or will prevent that from happening anyway.

"You can always count on Americans to do the right thing - after they've tried everything else."

Friends don't let Friends vote for Boomers
Sky
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I love my TV an' hug my TV an' call it 'George'.


Reply #772 on: May 30, 2020, 09:18:47 AM

Here in NH we are losing 5 people a day in nursing homes to the virus and everyone just carries on like normal.
Confirmed nursing home deaths in NY are in the thousands and climbing. Opinions vary between 'it's all fake' and 'they were going to die anyway.'

Just kidding, we also have our valiant progressives who think we should all lock down Death Stranding-style for the next 2 years and let our economy collapse completely.
Sir T
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Reply #773 on: May 30, 2020, 01:09:10 PM

The President of Music offers some advice to Musicians

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=41dOETwOFG8

Hic sunt dracones.
jgsugden
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Reply #774 on: May 30, 2020, 10:18:07 PM

The timing is based on the incubation period (up to 2-3 weeks) and time from onset of cough to very serious symptoms (about 8-10 days). People will seem to do alright and then just crash...
Given this timing (which I think still holds true to our expectations), and the general opening of the flood gates that took place in certain states at the start of May, wouldn't we be expecting to see positive tests and hospitalizations start to rise around now? And deaths in the next 7 to 14 days?  And, as nothing has been done to curb the spread in those states, shouldn't those numbers continue to rise for a minimum of 5 weeks (even if they started to take action next week)?  I'm just trying to calibrate my expectations.

2020 will be the year I gave up all hope.
Trippy
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Reply #775 on: May 30, 2020, 11:32:39 PM

It depends. If counting and testing methodologies haven't changed then you would expect to see what you described. However if, for example, testing frequency has increased then you might see an increase in new cases even though the actual infection rate hasn't changed. E.g. in my county we've seen a rise in new cases even though we're still in mostly in lockdown mode but that may be because we now have testing locations that don't require a doctor's referral and some of those don't even require an appointment. Or let's say a place that has opened up has seen an increase in new cases but they also are testing more frequently / have testing more widely available. It's hard in that case to determine how much of that increase in new cases is attributable to an increase in infection rate rather than testing frequency. The way hospitalizations and deaths are counted can change as well which again can make it hard to determine if the infection rate is increasing.
jgsugden
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Reply #776 on: May 31, 2020, 05:27:22 AM

Over the last week we've seen a decrease in daily testing in South Carolina. The number of positive tests per day had a few days worth of increases. I'm wondering if this is the start of the climb, or just a bit of variance.

2020 will be the year I gave up all hope.
Cyrrex
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Reply #777 on: May 31, 2020, 06:42:02 AM

Um, guys?  Massive out of control protests all over your country.  Toss your guesses out the window.

"...maybe if you cleaned the piss out of the sunny d bottles under your desks and returned em, you could upgrade you vid cards, fucken lusers.." - Grunk
01101010
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Reply #778 on: May 31, 2020, 06:49:24 AM

Um, guys?  Massive out of control protests all over your country.  Toss your guesses out the window.

Yeah, people were already relaxing the distancing thing because they are basically tired of it - now you are basically grouping up to protest. This will be the test of how powerful the virus really is - either it stays generally the same or we're going to see an explosion of cases and deaths.

Does any one know where the love of God goes...When the waves turn the minutes to hours? -G. Lightfoot
jgsugden
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Reply #779 on: May 31, 2020, 10:53:02 AM

I'm just assembling my understanding of the situation based upon all the various sources I've come across and would love to hear where people think I've got something wrong.

The virus can spread from surfaces to mouth/nose and infect, but that is not as common as aerosol transmission.  Proper hand washing and surface cleaning nearly eliminates the surface transmission risk.  Exposing yourself to surfaces you did not control, such as prepared foods you did not prepare yourself, exposes you to the risk, as would touching your face without washing your hands after touching an exposed surface, but outside that, risks are very low of surface transmission.

Aerosol transmission is the most common form of transmission and is easiest with sneezing, coughing, shouting, breathing heavy, etc... which allows concentrations of the virus to reach nearby people quickly.  For less vigorous aerosol distribution (without the extra oomph behind it of a sneeze, cough, yell or shout) where standard breathing is the method of delivery, you need one of the following circumstances:

* Very close proximity (time required will depend upon proximity and viral shed of the contagious person),
* Slow moving air that will push the exhalation of the virus along a path without too much disruption (which will require a length of time determined by the distance and extent of air disruption, and will be highly impacted by the rate of viral shed of the contagious person), or
* No air circulation so that the exhalation cloud can slowly expand over time (which will impact a larger and larger area over time - the extend of which will be controlled primarily by the viral shed of the contagious person)

Outside, there are several forces that help protect from the viral transmission.  The first is sunlight which kills the virus in the air at a reasonably quick rate.  The second is wind which disrupts concentrations of the virus in the air, making it harder to deliver a sufficient viral lode for contagion.  The third is humidity, as this has also shown a tendency to limit the ability of the virus to transmit (as well as having impacts on our immune systems, etc...).

If that is all correct, it seems like a lot of these protests and other recent outside events (such as the masses at the beaches) may be in a medium, rather than high, risk zone for transmission.  The folks that are tongue fucking strangers or climbing all over each other are exposing themselves, but unless there are a lot of infected people together shedding virus, marching with them in an open sunny space exposed to wind (and perhaps humidity) may not cause truly massive spikes all at once.

People gathering in restaurants, stores, movie theaters, etc... may be a different story, however.  While sunlight may be coming into windows, etc... to hamper the virus, for the most part these areas still seem ripe to transmit it.

If all that is generally correct, this leaves me unsure how big the June swell will be.  I expect to see things stop declining, but I am unsure if it will swell up to NY levels in many areas, or be a slow climb that brings our death rate back up to 2K people per day by the end of August, or hold steady at some level for a while ... until the weather turns and people start spending more time inside.  At which time we may have kids back in school, etc... and might see them become a massive source of redistribution throughout communities. 

What is wrong in the above?

2020 will be the year I gave up all hope.
HaemishM
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Reply #780 on: May 31, 2020, 11:39:40 AM

I'm pretty sure all the shithead cops just blasting people in protests with tear gas and pepper spray causing them to cough violently and cry is going to significantly raise the transmission rate of this thing within 2-3 weeks in urban centers where the violent police backlash against protests happened.

Sir T
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Reply #781 on: May 31, 2020, 01:09:05 PM

Jgsugden fistly while you mention sneezing, sneezing isn't a symptom of the virus. if you sneeze for something unrelated like allergies, then sure. it will spread the bug.

High Humidity could slow the evaporation of droplets that are carrying the bug, making them live a bit longer on surfaces and in the air.

Aside from that I cant see much wrong with what you said, but I'm no expert.

Hic sunt dracones.
Samwise
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Reply #782 on: May 31, 2020, 01:46:36 PM

Um, guys?  Massive out of control protests all over your country.  Toss your guesses out the window.

Yeah, people were already relaxing the distancing thing because they are basically tired of it - now you are basically grouping up to protest. This will be the test of how powerful the virus really is - either it stays generally the same or we're going to see an explosion of cases and deaths.

I mean, we seem bound and determined to make this in every way a shittier version of the Spanish Flu pandemic.  I guess this is like that parade in Philadelphia that caused a massive outbreak there, except with a lot more violence, and in every major city simultaneously.

"I have not actually recommended many games, and I'll go on the record here saying my track record is probably best in the industry." - schild
jgsugden
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Reply #783 on: May 31, 2020, 08:54:02 PM

Jgsugden fistly while you mention sneezing, sneezing isn't a symptom of the virus. if you sneeze for something unrelated like allergies, then sure. it will spread the bug.
Agreed. 

Quote
High Humidity could slow the evaporation of droplets that are carrying the bug, making them live a bit longer on surfaces and in the air.
That was my as well, but when I started to look at Covid 19 and humidity all of thre articles were pointing in the opposite direction.
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/how-humidity-may-affect-covid-19-outcome
https://www.sarasotamagazine.com/coronavirus/2020/04/can-high-humidity-slow-the-spread-of-covid-19
https://qz.com/1843347/if-covid-19-becomes-seasonal-humidity-could-help-explain-why/

However:


So - it provides some protection and reduces the area/rate of transmission, but is not a total protection.  Right?

2020 will be the year I gave up all hope.
Sir T
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Reply #784 on: June 01, 2020, 02:35:04 AM

From what you've posted that a fair statement with evidence, ya.

Hic sunt dracones.
Teleku
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Reply #785 on: June 01, 2020, 02:43:34 AM

Flu season in Myanmar/SE is rainy season (so starting right now).  So I sort of doubt we're going to see much relief due to weather.

"My great-grandfather did not travel across four thousand miles of the Atlantic Ocean to see this nation overrun by immigrants.  He did it because he killed a man back in Ireland. That's the rumor."
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jgsugden
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Reply #786 on: June 01, 2020, 12:58:01 PM

South Korea closing schools days after opening them.

They're doing so much more to fight the virus.  And they're not able to keep schools safe.  We're fucked.

2020 will be the year I gave up all hope.
Trippy
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Reply #787 on: June 01, 2020, 01:06:25 PM

Not a very good article. The linked Korea Times article makes it more clear that students are getting infected which is why they've closed schools / postponed reopenings. The BBC article makes it sounds like they closed the schools because factory workers are getting infected.

And yes unless you can get cases down to near zero (relative to total population) or zero like New Zealand and Taiwan have done relaxing restrictions will inevitably cause a rise in new cases until enough people have antibodies.
Trippy
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Reply #788 on: June 04, 2020, 01:23:30 PM

Evidence continues to grow that blood type has an affect on SARS-CoV-2 with three studies so far all showing at A+ type at increased risk, B+ roughly "neutral" risk, and O+ at decreased risk.

The latest pre-print study[1] looked at the genes of patients with COVID-19 respiratory failure in Italy and Spain and found a location associated with ABO blood typing that showed a 45% increased risk of respiratory failure for A+ and a 35% decreased risk for O+.

An earlier study from China[2] showed a roughly similar increase in both infection and death rates for types A and O (no Rh in their data). And a study of patients at a NYC hospital system[3] also showed the same relationship for infection rates (they weren't able to show any relationships for deaths or intubations).

The mechanism for why this might be is unknown but it may involve the anti-A antibody which is present in blood types B and O and has been shown to inhibit the binding of SARS-CoV-1 (i.e. SARS) to ACE2[4].

Edit: New York Times article on study: Genes May Leave Some People More Vulnerable to Severe Covid-19

[1] The ABO blood group locus and a chromosome 3 gene cluster associate with SARS-CoV-2 respiratory failure in an Italian-Spanish genome-wide association analysis

[2] Relationship between the ABO Blood Group and the COVID-19 Susceptibility

[3] Testing the association between blood type and COVID-19 infection, intubation, and death

[4] Glycobiology: Inhibition of the interaction between the SARS-CoV Spike protein and its cellular receptor by anti-histo-blood group antibodies
« Last Edit: June 04, 2020, 01:30:48 PM by Trippy »
Trippy
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Reply #789 on: June 04, 2020, 01:38:11 PM

More bad new for hydroxychloroquine. In the largest observational study to date hydroxychloroquine with or without a macrolide antibiotic like azithromycin showed increased mortality rates compared to the placebo group.

The Lancet: Hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine with or without a macrolide for treatment of COVID-19: a multinational registry analysis
Lots of people are not happy with this study.
And...retracted: https://www.thelancet.com/lancet/article/s0140673620313246

The New England Journal of Medicine also apparently retracted the study they published on blood pressure medication and COVID-19 based on the same suspect Surgisphere databse though I can't find the retraction statement on their site directly.

Edit: here's the NEJM retraction: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2021225
« Last Edit: June 04, 2020, 01:48:16 PM by Trippy »
MahrinSkel
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Reply #790 on: June 04, 2020, 01:57:44 PM

Evidence continues to grow that blood type has an affect on SARS-CoV-2 with three studies so far all showing at A+ type at increased risk, B+ roughly "neutral" risk, and O+ at decreased risk.

The latest pre-print study[1] looked at the genes of patients with COVID-19 respiratory failure in Italy and Spain and found a location associated with ABO blood typing that showed a 45% increased risk of respiratory failure for A+ and a 35% decreased risk for O+.
They saw that in China early on, but it's good (from a certain POV, guess what my blood type is) to have it confirmed.

Sorry about you mutants with A+, though.

--Dave

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Trippy
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Reply #791 on: June 04, 2020, 02:17:51 PM

Saved by Tyson the alpaca?

An alpaca nanobody neutralizes SARS-CoV-2 by blocking receptor interaction

The replies in this tweet from the lead author are hilarious:

https://twitter.com/mcinerney_gerry/status/1268087576340168704

tl;dr Camelid (e.g.camels, llamas, alpacas) antibodies are different than other types and can split up into fragments (a nanobody) and replicated by bacteria and used for therapies in humans. The researchers in the paper infected Tyson with SARS-CoV-2 and isolated that part of the antibodies he produced that binds to the SARS-CoV-2 receptor that binds to our cells preventing the virus from replicating. This is all still test-tube lab work type stuff at the moment so it may be a while before trials in humans start but we use nanobodies for other therapies so we know how to do it.

Edit: Reuters article: Tyson the alpaca takes heavyweight role in search for coronavirus vaccine (warning possible auto-playing video)
« Last Edit: June 04, 2020, 02:54:32 PM by Trippy »
Raph
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Reply #792 on: June 05, 2020, 01:46:27 PM

I’m A+.:(
jgsugden
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Reply #793 on: June 05, 2020, 04:17:28 PM

And thus born were the Were-alpacas.

2020 will be the year I gave up all hope.
Tale
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sıɥʇ ǝʞıן sʞןɐʇ


Reply #794 on: June 05, 2020, 06:49:22 PM

Evidence continues to grow that blood type has an affect on SARS-CoV-2 with three studies so far all showing at A+ type at increased risk, B+ roughly "neutral" risk, and O+ at decreased risk.

Perhaps relevant to another blood-related theory: Coronavirus May Be a Blood Vessel Disease, Which Explains Everything

As an O+ over 50, I've been feeling safer lately.
« Last Edit: June 05, 2020, 06:51:14 PM by Tale »
Cyrrex
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Reply #795 on: June 06, 2020, 02:07:47 AM

As an O neg, I assume I am practically a terminator compared to this thing.

"...maybe if you cleaned the piss out of the sunny d bottles under your desks and returned em, you could upgrade you vid cards, fucken lusers.." - Grunk
Trippy
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Reply #796 on: June 10, 2020, 04:11:54 PM

This may only be of interest to Dave but a recent paper modeled three different strategies for modifying a person's social graph during the pandemic to see which was most effectively in slowing down the spread.

Nature Human Behaviour: Social network-based distancing strategies to flatten the COVID-19 curve in a post-lockdown world

The three strategies, paraphrased, are:

1. Restrict based on similarity (geography, age, income, etc., similarity strategy)
2. Restrict based on community (restrict non-common ties, community strategy)
3. Restrict to those you interact with most (repetition strategy)

Strategy 3 turns out to be the most effective in their model though not signficantly more than the other two.



Khaldun
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Reply #797 on: June 10, 2020, 04:34:32 PM

I'll look at the paper in a bit, but did they model variable defection rates in each strategy model?

Basically a lot of residential undergraduate higher ed is going for "strategy 2" but the question that's floating around it is, "If you ask your students to stay strictly in community--to not travel to other campuses, to not go home frequently, to not go on road trips, etc., will they do it?" At least a few of them won't, so if this works, it has to work well even if you have something like 5-10% defections. But it would be interesting to model that upwards to see where the strategy breaks and becomes little better than no restriction.
« Last Edit: June 10, 2020, 05:11:00 PM by Khaldun »
Trippy
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Reply #798 on: June 10, 2020, 04:43:30 PM

I'll look at the paper in a bit, but did they model variable defection rates in each strategy model?
I think so. The model is pretty complicated but I believe they are setting the parameters for the actors in the simulations so they aren't following the restrictions 100%. Search for the "Parametrization of the different simulations" section near the bottom to see how the set things.
MahrinSkel
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When she crossed over, she was just a ship. But when she came back... she was bullshit!


Reply #799 on: June 10, 2020, 04:59:05 PM

This may only be of interest to Dave but a recent paper modeled three different strategies for modifying a person's social graph during the pandemic to see which was most effectively in slowing down the spread.

Nature Human Behaviour: Social network-based distancing strategies to flatten the COVID-19 curve in a post-lockdown world

--Signature Unclear
jgsugden
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Reply #800 on: June 10, 2020, 08:33:18 PM

Positive tests in my area going from 3 to 4% four weeks ago to 9 to 14% this week?

Numbers of tests being provided also increasing steadily?

Deaths per day also on the increase already?

I'd say we were starting to spike in every critical category... except for people social distancing, wearing masks, or taking other precautions.  We're still managing to keep those numbers dirt low.  Like, 6 feet under low. 

2020 will be the year I gave up all hope.
Khaldun
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Reply #801 on: June 11, 2020, 10:21:34 AM

Out shopping for food today, everyone wearing masks. Not being that careful about personal proximity, but not bad. I was struck that the plexiglass shield they've put up for the people at the registers is kind of fucking dumb because it covers the area where you swipe your debit or credit card but not the area where they put your bags before you put them in your cart, and the clerk is constantly turning and facing you about a foot away without a shield there. But at least there are masks.

Mostly I saw people in shopping lots wearing masks too to and from cars.

But apparently in some states (Texas, South Carolina), absolutely nobody is wearing masks anywhere and almost no one is distancing.
schild
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Reply #802 on: June 11, 2020, 10:39:02 AM

I had to get gas the other day any everyone was wearing masks. Also plexiglass.

Don't clump cities and states together.
Trippy
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Reply #803 on: June 11, 2020, 10:50:11 AM

Mask wearing in Texas and South Carolina is optional. Hence the reason why so many aren't. And of course Austin is Austin, and I'm assuming Houston is probably similar.
Rasix
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Reply #804 on: June 11, 2020, 10:53:24 AM

The Tucson response to Arizona's "open up" is somewhat of a mixed bag. A lot of people have just stopped trying, and a majority of these appear to be older people. Bars are in full swing and some are even hosting live music (wtf?).

The Whole Foods are requiring masks, but they're still doing curbside, so fuck going inside. Other places look like everyone but employees are just ignoring any resemblance of safety. I don't really trust my safety to the business driven decision making of our ex-ice-cream-shop CEO governor. And if that isn't bad enough, doctor friends are telling us that ICUs in the area are at full capacity.

I'm getting a haircut on Wednesday, but my stylist is just a one person salon in a standalone building. She's already gotten Covid (closed down for 3 weeks), so I guess that's a plus.

-Rasix
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