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Author Topic: Coronavirus / COVID-19  (Read 250967 times)
Cyrrex
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Reply #490 on: April 09, 2020, 08:24:55 AM

Well, it would be fine if that is what they were doing consistently, everywhere.  If they only tested people who are getting admitted (and there is room to admit everyone who needs it), that works.  But nothing is consistent in the states.

That is how they do it here in DK, and it works just fine.  You can then extrapolate the number of infected using that (somewhere between 3 and 6 times, I don’t know if that number is agreed yet).  If the number of people admitted is falling, and if you have capacity to manage it, then you are getting ahead of the curve.  Nothing else really matters.

"...maybe if you cleaned the piss out of the sunny d bottles under your desks and returned em, you could upgrade you vid cards, fucken lusers.." - Grunk
jgsugden
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Reply #491 on: April 09, 2020, 09:01:51 AM

Numbers, generally, are shit.  Numbers dead are the most reliable indicators of spread, but even that is going to be off as some will die and we won't ever test them for the virus and others will die from non-viral0 influence, but will have the virus and be counted.  However, those differences should be small.

Well, really, the most reliable number seems to be my dipshit percentage calculation.  It is holding steady at 99.9% with a very low margin for error these days.

2020 will be the year I gave up all hope.
Khaldun
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Reply #492 on: April 09, 2020, 09:06:39 AM

I think I mentioned earlier in the thread but in case I didn't, NYC and other cities are seeing two things:

Very abnormally large numbers of reported deaths at home where the dead person is not being autopsied or tested for coronavirus.
Far fewer heart attack cases in ERs, far fewer stroke cases in ERs.

Inference:
Fear of seeking emergency care is leading to more people dying of other conditions, with most of them dying at home.
Some of the people dying at home probably had Covid-19 but we'll likely never know.

When we revisit these numbers in a few years, I think there are going to be plausible models that show that *everywhere* the deaths directly and indirectly attributable to Covid-19 were everywhere much higher than the reporting at the time suggested.
Hammond
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Reply #493 on: April 09, 2020, 01:09:13 PM

I got into a discussion with one of our accountant's today about the numbers of confirmed cases in our area. Just to give some background our numbers of infected is pretty low but our testing level is also really low. He was trying to argue that the Pandemic is not a big deal due to the low numbers that we were seeing. My argument back is the numbers we are seeing are the tip of the iceberg and since you don't have a real handle on how bad it is you have to plan more for a worst case scenario.

He told me he cannot talk about this stuff with me anymore because I wasn't relying on the numbers... I just laughed and walked off. Accountants in general are a interesting bunch and he is no different.

On a separate note I am glad that a good portion of our population in Washington is taking it seriously enough. Hopefully that makes up for the idiots that buck the system and are going to get people killed.
MahrinSkel
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When she crossed over, she was just a ship. But when she came back... she was bullshit!


Reply #494 on: April 09, 2020, 02:00:02 PM

Even people who use math every day aren't able to intuitively grasp geometric growth. You might be able to explain it to him in terms of compound interest, where the rate is 10-15%, compounded daily. A small "debt" turns into a very big one.

In most fields, exponential growth can't continue very long before hit hits a limiting factor. With infectious disease, the limiting factor is when so many people have had it, it gets hard for the virus to find uninfected hosts. That is 40%, minimum.

You can simulate a lot of this in spreadsheets, but it's actually easier for someone that either designs games, or deconstructs them for powergaming, than for people who use math as accountants or engineers.

--Dave

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Salamok
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Reply #495 on: April 09, 2020, 02:34:08 PM

The numbers are mostly bullshit beyond being able to tell your canary in the coal mine just died.  Some scary statistics can be falsely arrived at using the numbers we have.  350k people recovered and 95k dead world wide from covid-19 cases, so of covid 19 cases that have been tracked to a resolution 21% of the people died!  60% of a cruise ship contracted this disease, so in a closed system we have documented evidence that 60% are gonna get it!  Earth is a closed system of over 7 billion peoples so 4.2 billion people are going to get covid-19 and  882 million are going to die.  This is all bullshit of course, you cant compare earth to a cruise ship and ignore the million plus confirmed covid-19 individuals who do not have a documented outcome, i'm guessing that since those individuals are not in the morgue yet it is likely the outcome will skew positive.
slog
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Reply #496 on: April 09, 2020, 03:12:45 PM

Not to mention that the terminally ill get inclucded in the numbers.  You can have a BMI of 55, have Stage IV cancer with 2 weeks to live, and if you catch Covid-19 and die you get picked up in the numbers. 

Friends don't let Friends vote for Boomers
Salamok
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Reply #497 on: April 09, 2020, 03:16:52 PM

Not to mention that the terminally ill get inclucded in the numbers.  You can have a BMI of 55, have Stage IV cancer with 2 weeks to live, and if you catch Covid-19 and die you get picked up in the numbers.  

And I doubt they consistently follow up/retest the you tested positive and have the sniffles go home and self quarantine for 14 days.  Would love to see a statistic of how many people tested positive over 3 weeks ago and are not currently in the hospital or dead.  I would bet that there are more dead but untested positive cases than confirmed positive cases that died for unrelated reasons though.
« Last Edit: April 09, 2020, 03:18:25 PM by Salamok »
Jeff Kelly
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Reply #498 on: April 09, 2020, 03:26:47 PM

My most recent conspiracy theory is that the whole Hydroxychloroquine thing is a pump-n-dump scheme  awesome, for real

Trump at least is predictable in that respect. Also yes the guy is actually called Joe Pizza I looked it up.

https://readsludge.com/2020/04/09/did-joe-pizza-tell-trump-about-hydroxychloroquine/

“ Trump donor Joseph Pizza, whose wife was serenaded by President Trump at Mar-a-Lago, runs a pharmaceutical company that sells hydroxychloroquine sulfate, the primary active ingredient of Plaquenil.”

http://www.interchem.com/
Tale
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Reply #499 on: April 09, 2020, 04:26:14 PM

Pizzagate. There you have it.
Hammond
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Reply #500 on: April 09, 2020, 04:50:25 PM

I tried a few different angles with the accountant and he just couldn't get past his spreadsheets.  In the future I will just not have those conversations with him. He tends to be a bit of a libertarian anyway so anything remotely political gets weird.

When all this is said and done it will be interesting to see the final statistics and see how close the modelers were to the actual numbers.

Abagadro
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Reply #501 on: April 09, 2020, 10:38:44 PM

Far fewer heart attack cases in ERs, far fewer stroke cases in ERs.


I can provide a bit of info on this since I am actively involved in conversations about it.  So, one of the things about medical transports for these type of events is that they will try to get you resuscitated really quickly in the field as the oxygen flow to the brain is the top priority and has to happen REALLY QUICKLY.  If they can get you back breathing, they will then transport you as you have a decent chance of survival (subject to how long the initial response time was) with hospital care. However, if they don't revive you on scene they will "scoop and scoot" and continue to work you all the way to the hospital and if they pump enough shit into people and compress them enough you can usually get a pulse in the back of the box but they are likely brain dead already and have a very low survival rate once in the hospital. They basically end up PVS on vents until they pull the plug.  So, the decision was made in NYC that if they can't revive them on scene you simply don't transport and call it on scene. It's a harsh decision but makes sense when vents are so scarce and the survival rate so low for those not revived on scene.

"As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

-H.L. Mencken
eldaec
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Reply #502 on: April 10, 2020, 02:05:05 AM

When all this is said and done it will be interesting to see the final statistics and see how close the modelers were to the actual numbers.

To be fair to those models in advance, they all have enormous confidence intervals - which is the model's way of saying they have no fucking clue because insufficient data. Even those where the central estimate turns out roughly right will have been broken clocks.

"People will not assume that what they read on the internet is trustworthy or that it carries any particular ­assurance or accuracy" - Lord Leveson
"Hyperbole is a cancer" - Lakov Sanite
HaemishM
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Reply #503 on: April 10, 2020, 06:29:49 AM

I tried a few different angles with the accountant and he just couldn't get past his spreadsheets.  In the future I will just not have those conversations with him. He tends to be a bit of a libertarian anyway so anything remotely political gets weird.

Tell this dipshit he has to do all his client's business taxes for the past 10 years, but the only books he can use are from January 2019 and they are just a stack of crumpled up receipts that smell like beer and vomit. Also, if he gets even one cent wrong on the return, the IRS will arrest him, sentence him to death by hanging and carry out the sentence slowly over 10-14 days while he dangles over an open flame.

If he doesn't get it then, just cough on him and move on with your life.

slog
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Reply #504 on: April 10, 2020, 10:14:52 AM

I tried a few different angles with the accountant and he just couldn't get past his spreadsheets.  In the future I will just not have those conversations with him. He tends to be a bit of a libertarian anyway so anything remotely political gets weird.

Tell this dipshit he has to do all his client's business taxes for the past 10 years, but the only books he can use are from January 2019 and they are just a stack of crumpled up receipts that smell like beer and vomit. Also, if he gets even one cent wrong on the return, the IRS will arrest him, sentence him to death by hanging and carry out the sentence slowly over 10-14 days while he dangles over an open flame.

If he doesn't get it then, just cough on him and move on with your life.

I like this analogy.

Sweden is trying a different approach. Lot's of people will be copying it if it works https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/10/europe/sweden-lockdown-turmp-intl/index.html


Friends don't let Friends vote for Boomers
Sky
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I love my TV an' hug my TV an' call it 'George'.


Reply #505 on: April 10, 2020, 11:10:20 AM

Sweden isn't quite the 'hold my beer' population of our nation.
Trippy
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Reply #506 on: April 10, 2020, 11:16:10 AM

Cases of "recovered" patients being "reinfected" are showing up in South Korea now too:

https://fortune.com/2020/04/09/coronavirus-reinfection-fears-grow-cured-patients-test-positive-reactivated-virus/
Salamok
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Reply #507 on: April 10, 2020, 01:13:52 PM

It would be pretty bad if this ended up like some Herpes virus that goes into remission then flares up and every flareup you gotta roll the d20 to see how fucked you are.
Sir T
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Reply #508 on: April 10, 2020, 04:09:12 PM

Or chicken pox that comes back to shingles.

Hic sunt dracones.
MahrinSkel
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When she crossed over, she was just a ship. But when she came back... she was bullshit!


Reply #509 on: April 10, 2020, 04:23:33 PM

All of the cases so far (including those in the linked article) seem to be people who were recently (within a week or two) discharged from the hospital and then became ill again. So we're talking about a lingering infection with undetectable viral loads, or false negatives on the screening test, not a disease that hides for years and re-emerges.

--Dave

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Jeff Kelly
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I'm an apathetic, hedonistic, utilitarian, nihilistic existentialist.


Reply #510 on: April 10, 2020, 04:35:12 PM

The current crop of corona tests has an accuracy of maybe 70%. There are lots of people with clear symptoms who had negative tests and vice versa.

Antibody tests are even less accurate. The major antibody Test for celiac disease for example (which I suffer from) only detects it in about fifty percent of all people affected.

People being ‚reinfected’ can mean all kinds of things at this moment.
Ashamanchill
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Reply #511 on: April 10, 2020, 04:51:23 PM

Is that something vaguely resembling a sliver of hope from Jeff Kelly?

A poster signed by Richard Garriot, Brad McQuaid, Marc Jacobs and SmerricK Dart.  Of course it would arrive a couple years late, missing letters and a picture but it would be epic none the less. -Tmon
Jeff Kelly
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I'm an apathetic, hedonistic, utilitarian, nihilistic existentialist.


Reply #512 on: April 10, 2020, 04:52:37 PM

Quarantine does weird things to all of us, I guess
schild
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Reply #513 on: April 10, 2020, 05:53:22 PM

Also it's just cold facts that these tests and the dormancy of this thing are all just shit slices on a shitburger.
Abagadro
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Reply #514 on: April 10, 2020, 05:57:56 PM

So I have a question for folks who use face masks regularly. I have some and when I put them on they only seem to serve to blow my breadth straight into my eyes, which seems....uh...counterproductive and also fogs up my glasses so I can't see.  Is there some magical way to fit/wear these things that I am too dense to figure out?

"As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

-H.L. Mencken
Jeff Kelly
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I'm an apathetic, hedonistic, utilitarian, nihilistic existentialist.


Reply #515 on: April 10, 2020, 06:07:24 PM

So I have a question for folks who use face masks regularly. I have some and when I put them on they only seem to serve to blow my breadth straight into my eyes, which seems....uh...counterproductive and also fogs up my glasses so I can't see.  Is there some magical way to fit/wear these things that I am too dense to figure out?

A recommendation I’ve seen a lot that actually seems to work is to put a folded tissue under the mask where the nose is.

Chimpy
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Reply #516 on: April 10, 2020, 06:10:00 PM

So I have a question for folks who use face masks regularly. I have some and when I put them on they only seem to serve to blow my breadth straight into my eyes, which seems....uh...counterproductive and also fogs up my glasses so I can't see.  Is there some magical way to fit/wear these things that I am too dense to figure out?

If the mask doesn't have the little metal piece to mold over your nose, put double stick tape on it and press it down onto your nose.

Added bonus: it will clean out your pores  why so serious?

'Reality' is the only word in the language that should always be used in quotes.
Abagadro
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Reply #517 on: April 10, 2020, 06:18:08 PM

Ive had the problem with both a cloth one without and an N95 with a metal tab. Just can't get them to fit right. I'm either a dope or have a weird head.

"As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

-H.L. Mencken
schild
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Reply #518 on: April 10, 2020, 06:34:37 PM

Samwise
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Reply #519 on: April 10, 2020, 06:36:03 PM

It would be pretty bad if this ended up like some Herpes virus that goes into remission then flares up and every flareup you gotta roll the d20 to see how fucked you are.
Or chicken pox that comes back to shingles.

Chicken pox is a herpesvirus, which is exactly why it's able to do that.

themoreyouknow.jpg

"I have not actually recommended many games, and I'll go on the record here saying my track record is probably best in the industry." - schild
Sky
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I love my TV an' hug my TV an' call it 'George'.


Reply #520 on: April 11, 2020, 11:30:20 AM

I switched from masks to a respirator for work/hobby stuff because I hated everything about n95 masks. I haven't been out of the house since the CDC bunglingly admitted we should be wearing masks in public.

At this point I'm thinking of modifying my Darth Vader helmet with a filter when I need to hit the supermarket again.
Sir T
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Reply #521 on: April 11, 2020, 12:51:16 PM

There are 9 women in my little town sewing masks for Nurses on a voluntary basis. I went up on Tuesday to donate a couple of cotton Duvet covers, and they game me a free green fashion mask. Its pretty cool. Of course I should have made a photo to accompany this. Anyway it beats the shit out of a surgical mask.

Hic sunt dracones.
Samwise
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sentient yeast infection


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Reply #522 on: April 11, 2020, 12:56:11 PM

There are 9 women in my little town sewing masks for Nurses on a voluntary basis. I went up on Tuesday to donate a couple of cotton Duvet covers, and they game me a free green fashion mask. Its pretty cool. Of course I should have made a photo to accompany this. Anyway it beats the shit out of a surgical mask.

My mom has been cranking those out.  I ordered her some patterned fabric to make masks for the owners of my local pub (they're big Trek fans).


"I have not actually recommended many games, and I'll go on the record here saying my track record is probably best in the industry." - schild
Trippy
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Reply #523 on: April 11, 2020, 01:02:16 PM

Ive had the problem with both a cloth one without and an N95 with a metal tab. Just can't get them to fit right. I'm either a dope or have a weird head.
There are versions that have a one way vent on the front which makes it easier to breath out of and helps prevent air from going up your face.

https://www.3m.com/3M/en_US/worker-health-safety-us/personal-protective-equipment/cool-respirator-mask/

Of course that does mean you can breath out the virus onto people through the vent awesome, for real (I have mine taped off)
Sir T
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Reply #524 on: April 11, 2020, 01:07:18 PM

My mom has been cranking those out.  I ordered her some patterned fabric to make masks for the owners of my local pub (they're big Trek fans).

Ya mine looks pretty similar

Hic sunt dracones.
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