HURRICANE FUCKSTICK 5001: MORE IRMA, MORE CANE

[01101010]

Wonder if Branson made it out of his wine cellar yet or if they are still playing AD&D or if they drown.

[Brolan]

Wonder if Branson made it out of his wine cellar yet or if they are still playing AD&D or if they drown.

You talking about his private island?   That only got sideswiped.

[01101010]

You talking about his private island?   That only got sideswiped.

True, but a sideswipe from this beast had to be pretty fucking catastrophic.

[Teleku]

Everybody on the island is OK, but the 'sideswipe' destroyed almost everything on the island they say.

[Abagadro]

 

[Trippy]

IBM's "Deep Thunder" weather predictor is predicting a direct hit on Miami as Cat 5 hurricane.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/905950194772176896

Let's hope Deep Thunder is as bad at learning as IBM's Watson is and is wrong

[Chimpy]

NHS cone of doom is now predicting a track centered all the way up the center of the peninsula.

Stay safe Floridians.

[schild]

IBM's "Deep Thunder" weather predictor is predicting a direct hit on Miami as Cat 5 hurricane.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/905950194772176896

Let's hope Deep Thunder is as bad at learning as IBM's Watson is and is wrong

if it's right

grandma is coming home to a completely destroyed condo

[Abagadro]

NWS has it as a 4 winding down to a 3 at landfall, so there is some variability in the models. Still bad but not necessarily a Cat 5 landfall.

[schild]

cat 3 is fine
cat 5 is death

[Abagadro]

8.1 quake off coast of Mexico.  3M tsunami warning for Mexico coast. Maybe this is the end times.

[TheWalrus]

Well, isn't Jesus supposed to come back when Trump/Pence blow? 

[calapine]

Two prediction:

ECMWF 0z left, GFS right




The European model has the landfall in SW Florida, GFS (US) dead center Miami.

 

[01101010]

That'll be the end of South Beach... 

[Yegolev]

Let's hope Deep Thunder is as bad at learning as IBM's Watson is and is wrong

It's fortunately not related to Watson in any way.  It is a replacement for the TWC model and IBM's model, created by the combination of IBM's 5 (!) meteorologists and our best-of-200.  Runs on a new Cray.  I only just opened up the firewall holes for it so I'm not 100% on if we are using it in the aggregate.  But I've been busy on other things.

The ECMWF is a good model but we still mash it all together and manufacture a best guess from all of them.

And:

[Morat20]

NWS has it as a 4 winding down to a 3 at landfall, so there is some variability in the models. Still bad but not necessarily a Cat 5 landfall.

Won't it still be pushing a bitch of a storm surge, though?

[Chimpy]

NWS has it as a 4 winding down to a 3 at landfall, so there is some variability in the models. Still bad but not necessarily a Cat 5 landfall.

It still has a pool of really warm water to roll over before it makes the turn, I wouldn't bet too much on it getting much weaker before landfall. Or that it won't be cat5 again.

This is a hell of a year. O.o

[Yegolev]

As of 6pm, projected storm surge is 5-10 feet and 8-12 inches of rain for south FL.

[Nebu]

As of 6pm, projected storm surge is 5-10 feet and 8-12 inches of rain for south FL.

Should they expect 155 mph winds or will that subside a bit by landfall?  Any idea on the speed of the path and lingering effects?

[schild]

As of 6pm, projected storm surge is 5-10 feet and 8-12 inches of rain for south FL.

Should they expect 155 mph winds or will that subside a bit by landfall?  Any idea on the speed of the path and lingering effects?

Corpses float. They all float.

[RhyssaFireheart]

Let's hope Deep Thunder is as bad at learning as IBM's Watson is and is wrong

It's fortunately not related to Watson in any way.  It is a replacement for the TWC model and IBM's model, created by the combination of IBM's 5 (!) meteorologists and our best-of-200.  Runs on a new Cray.  I only just opened up the firewall holes for it so I'm not 100% on if we are using it in the aggregate.  But I've been busy on other things.

The ECMWF is a good model but we still mash it all together and manufacture a best guess from all of them.

And:

Damn.  Maybe we should just stop using I-J-K for naming storms.

[Raph]

I've got family up in Jacksonville but inland a bit... am growing more concerned. Usually Jax is fairly safe from the big winds. This time...

[Yegolev]

Winds around Miami are forecast to be ~130mph when it rides over, but of course that is the high mark of the storm.  My info is old, still from 6pm, so I'd suggest watching TWC or tolerating weather.com if you can.

I'm busy planning some infrastructure-as-code patterns for a new product.  My machines make the same unintelligible JSON payloads no matter what is going on, just some of the numbers are bigger or smaller at the moment.

Get out of Florida.

[Teleku]

Yegolev, in case anybody hasn't actually said, thank you for your weather advice.  Many people on this forum never say anything, but you have a unique job and information, so thank you for posting what you know here.

A hell of a lot of people just lurk and say nothing.  I hope everybody in general appreciates the information they've given out.  Also, I hope you get picked up in a particularly unique wind blast and thrown out to to sea where you meat the ....arrrgghhhh
If you play Xcom, there are a ton of awesome propaganda posters with your name on them!  Also, fuck.  Much as I want to hate on Florida, I wish no i'll will towards fellow Americans.  Hope everything works out!

[Nebu]

Yegolev, in case anybody hasn't actually said, thank you for your weather advice.  Many people on this forum never say anything, but you have a unique job and information, so thank you for posting what you know here.

Yes, this.  Thanks Yeg.  I appreciate the info.

[Chimpy]

Harvey and Irma, Married 75 Years, Marvel at the Storms Bearing Their Names

[Khaldun]

I thought that story was an Onion at first, but nope. One funny thing in a non-funny moment.

Looks like the track is shifting west? Bad for the Keys, better for Miami, maybe worse for Fort Myers? Plus current forecast is for 8-14 ft. storm surge into the Keys which is    but if that rolls over into the southern Everglades, bad for lots of alligators and pythons and shit but not wiping a city off the map. I don't think anybody who lives(d) in Key West had better plan on driving back to their property soon.

[Chimpy]

Cat 5 again. 

[Abagadro]

Updated track too. Looks like Naples is landfall now.

[Samprimary]

http://robirmatnik.ytmnd.com/

[Abagadro]

ytmnd still exists?

[Tale]

Looks like the track is shifting west? Bad for the Keys, better for Miami, maybe worse for Fort Myers?

The sheer size of the thing though... the projections show insane hurricane wind speeds covering more than the width of Florida even if it continues to track west.

[MahrinSkel]

Yeah, labeling hurricanes on the assumption that wind speed at the eyewall is the only meaningful parameter is turning out to be inadequate, the sheer scale of two Cat 5 storms can differ by an order of magnitude.

--Dave

[Merusk]

Also important; tidal surge and how many tornadoes does the storm spawn.

[Jeff Kelly]

1. Harvey was a Cat 4 storm at landfall and look at what happened
2. Irma is already much larger than Katharina or Andrew
3. Cat 5 "cataclysmic damage will occur" vs. Cat 4 "catastrophic damage will occur"

Debating about will it be a Cst 4 or 5 is largely academic it will be one of the biggest Atlantic hurricanes yet and should be treated as such.