The "Storm! RUN!" Thread

[Sir T]

Rather than pollute the Redstates thread lets talk storms here

With regard to air pressure, Patricia is the most intense tropical cyclone ever recorded in the western hemisphere, exceeding 2005’s Hurricane Wilma in the Atlantic Ocean by two millibars. However, there have been at least seven other tropical cyclones—all out in the western Pacific Ocean—that have reached 880 millibars or stronger. 1979’s Typhoon Tip currently holds the record for lowest minimum air pressure ever seen in a tropical cyclone, coming in at 870 millibars.

It is entirely possible that Patricia is not the strongest storm we’ve ever seen. Most tropical cyclones that form out in the western Pacific Ocean do not receive the in-depth aircraft recon flights storms near North America encounter. It is possible that a storm like Haiyan was stronger than satellites estimated and we just didn’t know it.

However, Patricia is the real deal. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft flew into the hurricane last night and directly measured these winds using advanced instruments on the aircraft and via dropsondes released from the aircraft and into the hurricane.

Humans directly measured this thing.

This historic feat took everyone by surprise. No weather models predicted this, and just a few short days ago, even the most experienced meteorologist would have laughed if you mentioned the possibility. It is a feat of Mother Nature that a small swirl of clouds would soon become a storm that is now The Storm by which all others will be compared for decades to come.

At 200 MPH, Hurricane Patricia Is Now the Strongest Tropical Cyclone Ever Recorded

Things started to go downhill on Wednesday night and Thursday morning. The storm began to show signs of rapid strengthening, leaping from 65 MPH at 10:00 PM CDT on Wednesday to an 85 MPH category one hurricane at 4:00 AM CDT on Thursday. From there, almost every advisory saw Patricia’s maximum sustained winds jump higher and higher.

During the 24-hour period between 4:00 AM CDT on Thursday and 4:00 AM CDT on Friday, Patricia went from an 85 MPH category one to a 200 MPH category five. Its minimum central pressure dove from 980 millibars to 880 millibars over the same period, such an extreme pressure drop that it is unprecedented in modern history.

The storm is so intense that the air temperature up in the hurricane’s eye, thousands of feet above the surface, was 89°F. 89°F!

The storm is so intense that the Hurricane Hunter aircraft recorded sustained winds of 221 MPH at flight level a few thousand feet above the surface of the ocean.

Patricia is a storm without precedent. We are living history today, but nobody will live it more than Mexico. While we try to wrap our minds around what the atmosphere did last night, it’s important to remember that there are people in the path of this storm. This is not some abstract homework assignment assigned by some madman meteorology professor. This is a real storm that is quickly approaching land and soon threatens to create unimaginable amounts of devastation in any communities caught directly in the path of Patricia’s eye.

At 200 MPH, Hurricane Patricia Is Now the Strongest Tropical Cyclone Ever Recorded

While it’s fun to nerd-out over this becoming the strongest storm we’ve ever recorded, it could also go down in the history books for the amount of human suffering it could cause if it runs smack into a populated area on Mexico’s west coast. We can’t lose sight over the human toll this storm will likely incur.

If the worst case scenario unfolds and the strongest part of this storm hits a populated area, the human suffering will be immense by any standard, let alone what we think can happen in this day and age. The loss of life from wind, surge, and flooding will be enormous, but the deep horror of the lasting effects—crippled infrastructure, illnesses, lack of food, water, clothing, and shelter—will linger for months after the storm dissipates.

http://thevane.gawker.com/at-200-mph-hurricane-patricia-is-now-the-strongest-tro-1738224692

[Speedy Cerviche]

From what I've read the one good thing is that the storm has a strange structure so that the high force wind area is smaller than most other large storms at just 8 miles across (thus I guess concentrating that centre into something more powerful). So you're fucked if in the path, but escape lightly if just outside of it.

[MahrinSkel]

The speed with which it organized is also unusual. Usually they're tracing them for days as they slowly bootstrap from tropical storms to hurricanes. This went from "almost nothing" to "holy shit!" in just over 24 hours.

--Dave

[jakonovski]

Stream: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4n9QogL9IyE

[Ghambit]

Back during my weathernut days I got to sit and watch Wilma rapidly intensify in a few short hours (sat up all night with my jaw dropped).  It was an amazing datastream to sit and watch whilst chatting it up with other weathergeeks.  That was a pinhole eye, however and more of a maritime disaster (it annihilated everything floating out there).  The structure of Wilma was also something to behold.  Storms have "skeletons" so to speak.  How they are built makes all the difference sometimes and is an area of modeling that's getting slowly better.  

Patricia has a much bigger eye diameter though, which makes it all the more impressive.

There was a time that 200mph was deemed impossible meteorologically.  I'd say due to climate change, those theories are out.

As for Mexico?  Meh... the biggest loss will be Manzanillo.  Big time industrial port city, but not much in the way of swanky leisure.  There's no where for a rec. boater to even tie up really (I bypassed it really in my trip planning).  The port itself won't take much of a hit because it's designed for large ships, but the infrastructure around it will be gone.... which will effect trade inland for sure.  Other than that, the area is pretty sparse.  And the winds at lower elevation will be lifted by the time it starts to move inland; due to terrain.  You may see Cat. 4 up the mountains, but in the valleys it'll be more like Cat. 2 and weakening.

[Merusk]

There isn't a normal house or structure that will be able to stand up to it. God Help anyone in the path of this thing.

No, there are and they're in Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska and the other plains states.  Yes this hurricane is faster than must but Tornados are even more fast and destructive. Flooding is what fucks buildings in Hurricanes.

If you're on the coast in the US you MUST design for a 140MPH impact load minimum. High-risk zones get up to 180 in Florida and 150 in the Gulf.
http://publicecodes.cyberregs.com/icod/ibc/2012/icod_ibc_2012_16_sec009.htm

Those are baby tornados, however.
http://www.enchantedlearning.com/subjects/weather/tornado/fscale.shtml

This hurricane rates a high F-3 if it's at 200mph. There's two whole classifications after that, though. Tornadoes are what those Texas buildings are designed for. While they'll lose a lot of exterior they aren't likely to fall over.  Areas outside of "Tornado Alley" that might get hit will see significant economic damage from torn-off siding to roofs simply disappearing. .

Ed: Of course I am ignoring the damage of wind-driven rain here. That can be bad but it's never as destructive as winds can be and usually happens because wind ripped some important part of the rain barrier off of the building.

[Sir T]

This thread should probably be moved to General Discussion.

[Morat20]

Well, Mexico is proper fucked. I hope to god all the aid agencies are ready, up to and including the US military. There's gonna be a lot of death and damage.

It'll still be a tropical depression halfway to Texas, and that's after crossing mountains.

Jesus.

[01101010]

Back during my weathernut days I got to sit and watch Wilma rapidly intensify in a few short hours (sat up all night with my jaw dropped).  It was an amazing datastream to sit and watch whilst chatting it up with other weathergeeks.  That was a pinhole eye, however and more of a maritime disaster (it annihilated everything floating out there).  The structure of Wilma was also something to behold.  Storms have "skeletons" so to speak.  How they are built makes all the difference sometimes and is an area of modeling that's getting slowly better.  

I was in Miami Beach at the time and everyone there shrugged and kinda blew it off since it was coming bay side. It moved so fast the winds were still 90mph when the eye hit Miami. Crazy thing to be in. No power for a week, charging my phone in the car, no school for 10 days... and all from a storm no one cared enough to pay attention to until it was on top of us.

This one will be the big sister to Andrew which IIRC was a small, compact yet vicious storm.

[KallDrexx]

The inner sustained winds of this hurricane match an F4 tornado.

Let that sink in.

I currently have a friend who flew out to Ajijica to visit his parents Thursday morning.  They are now trying to flee east south east to get away from the storm, which doesn't instill confidence in me as they are heading way out of the tourist areas of Mexico.

[Morat20]

Anything beats being in the way of that thing bearing  down on you. At least the eye is small. They were recording temps of negative 130F in the eye, from updrafts. Best anyone can hope for is that it starts an eyewall replacement cycle before it hits.

Won't do anything for the water, but it'll weaken the winds a bit and help it collapse faster. Might even go down to a Cat 4 as it hits.

[Sir T]

Given a choice between being in Cartel-land and in the path of that thing, I'll take the cartels. They have the capacity for mercy.

[calapine]

As seen from the ISS:



It does look impressive.

[Ghambit]

Back during my weathernut days I got to sit and watch Wilma rapidly intensify in a few short hours (sat up all night with my jaw dropped).  It was an amazing datastream to sit and watch whilst chatting it up with other weathergeeks.  That was a pinhole eye, however and more of a maritime disaster (it annihilated everything floating out there).  The structure of Wilma was also something to behold.  Storms have "skeletons" so to speak.  How they are built makes all the difference sometimes and is an area of modeling that's getting slowly better.  

I was in Miami Beach at the time and everyone there shrugged and kinda blew it off since it was coming bay side. It moved so fast the winds were still 90mph when the eye hit Miami. Crazy thing to be in. No power for a week, charging my phone in the car, no school for 10 days... and all from a storm no one cared enough to pay attention to until it was on top of us.

This one will be the big sister to Andrew which IIRC was a small, compact yet vicious storm.

I was on SoBe also, at Sunset Harbor on a boat... with a generator.  Invited my friends over... we partied on Lincoln and on the boat; sucked on icecubes and then posted the pix to rub it in everyone else's faces.  Good times.

Wilma was a phreak storm.  Since it came from the glades, a fast mover in the direction of the trough (so less shear), it was still strong and still able to get its high level winds down to the surface.  The thing had quite a life; was originally a gnasty cape verde thunderstorm that stuck around for like what?  month+?

Anyways, people in this thread talking about tornadoes vs. canes and what-not?  Yah, you've likely never been in a 100mph storm.  Most people haven't nor ever will, regardless of what the news says a storm does.  The media and NOAA always overcast a storm, and realize, they're looking at flight lvl and then extrapolating to the surface without regard for the storm being able to actually DO that. Measurements are also always in areas completely exposed to weather. So, unless you have an anemometer and are in the right place at the right time, chances are you've experienced nothing.

Sustained 100mph winds breaks a LOT of shit.  Most shit.  Nothing we build really does well once you get into the triple-digits, partly because of the speed, partly because of debris in the air with shittons of kinetic energy, and partly because of the time the structures have to endure it in a cane.  A 100mph tornado isnt bad because it comes and goes.  Strong t-storms can do the same.  But... inject that into a hurricane that routinely sends 100mph rotors into your house (not even sustained mind you; these are basically horizontal tornadoes), over and over for 12hrs...  you'll wish you never stayed home.  It's hell.  Yah, water damages way more... but, wind will flatten places inland like nothing else.  Really the US has yet to beat Andrew for seeing what a cat.5 can do to a modern inland community if it's still at peak or strengthening, which Andrew was.  No storm since has come close.  It was a literal apocalypse for SoFla; just in the shitty poor areas so no one cared.  

I got blown off my feet ala superman in a 100mph storm (reading on the meter during Wilma; not even in the worst of it).  Basically only my hands maintained contact with something connected to the ground.  I watched boats sink, marinas get turned to tinder, and megayachts go flying down the bay like kites.  So before you scoff, go stand in it and then post your feelings after.  It's effin hell.  200mph though?  pfft.  If anyone sees that sustained or periodic over time; they wont last long in most homes.  Even a "shelter" during that will lose integrity; walls will crack, sometimes even the corners will get sheared off - then the wind gets inside... then it's all over.

[Morat20]

These days off-shore buoys are often loaded with simple sensors -- and wind-speed is a simple sensor. Now off the coast of Mexico is one thing, but I know Gulf Storms they've got actual wind-speed measurements. From buoys, from oil rigs, etc.

Still isn't not the wind, generally. It's the storm surge -- at least along the Gulf Coast (and in actual, built homes. Which are built to take 100+ mph gusts). Now trailer parks? You're fucked in gusts that big.

But houses? You'll lose the roof, you'll lose windows as stuff gets flung around at speed, but what's gonna kill you is the water as long as you're not a moron. (And god, hurricanes bring out morons. "Gonna go outside, Edith! Gotta check out the storm!")

[Strazos]

Well, Mexico is proper fucked. I hope to god all the aid agencies are ready, up to and including the US military. There's gonna be a lot of death and damage.

It'll still be a tropical depression halfway to Texas, and that's after crossing mountains.

Jesus.

Yeah, we'll be ready, to the extent that is possible. The biggest problem after the storm passes will be access - airports are likely going to be damaged, and many roads may well be impassable. Part of the problem is that you can't really pre-position too close to the disaster areas, because you don't want to risk even more people unnecessarily.

And thanks for the Ixtapa video - I was just there in July. Beautiful place; hope it makes it through OK.

If I end up being deployed to the affected areas, maybe I'll have something to share afterwards.  

[Ghambit]

These days off-shore buoys are often loaded with simple sensors -- and wind-speed is a simple sensor. Now off the coast of Mexico is one thing, but I know Gulf Storms they've got actual wind-speed measurements. From buoys, from oil rigs, etc.

Still isn't not the wind, generally. It's the storm surge -- at least along the Gulf Coast (and in actual, built homes. Which are built to take 100+ mph gusts). Now trailer parks? You're fucked in gusts that big.

But houses? You'll lose the roof, you'll lose windows as stuff gets flung around at speed, but what's gonna kill you is the water as long as you're not a moron. (And god, hurricanes bring out morons. "Gonna go outside, Edith! Gotta check out the storm!")

That's at sea though.  Storms don't behave the same at all over land; as soon as it hits the coast the winds start to lift off the ground..  Moral is, you might get "hit" with a cat. 2 per the forecast, but most times you'll rarely if ever see those winds unless the storm is deepening at landfall (say like katrina, rita, charlie, etc. in Florida) or a special snowflake (like Wilma was).

For Andrew, a lot of people survived that probably shouldn't have... initially.  People lay in rubble under mattresses all over the place.  But, most of the death occurred afterwards because the infrastructure was gone.  There are places still scarred by it even today.  Some small communities were wiped off the map and never rebuilt.  Bush Sr. fucked up that response just like his son did with Katrina.

As for Wilma?  Ended up costing the country more than Andrew did.  It's the storm that really didn't get the coverage it should have.

[Speedy Cerviche]

Looks like it's making landfall between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta. Pretty rugged coast there should take the edge off.

[brellium]

It's going to soak Texas based on wind patterns.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-102.29,21.76,1979

However that depends on just how much moisture can cross mountains.

I wouldn't be surprised to see continued rain for a couple days after it makes land fall, based on mountain sheer.

[brellium]

Wow, 870 millibars for a barometric low.

[01101010]

I was on SoBe also, at Sunset Harbor on a boat... with a generator.  Invited my friends over... we partied on Lincoln and on the boat; sucked on icecubes and then posted the pix to rub it in everyone else's faces.  Good times.

Wilma was a phreak storm.  Since it came from the glades, a fast mover in the direction of the trough (so less shear), it was still strong and still able to get its high level winds down to the surface.  The thing had quite a life; was originally a gnasty cape verde thunderstorm that stuck around for like what?  month+?

LMAO. Small world, I lived on 15th over near Española Way.

[MahrinSkel]

Wow, 870 millibars for a barometric low.

Fuck me, that is equivalent to over 4000 feet of altitude.  An industrial strength vacuum with an intake 50 miles across.

--Dave

[brellium]

Wow, 870 millibars for a barometric low.

Fuck me, that is equivalent to over 4000 feet of altitude.  An industrial strength vacuum with an intake 50 miles across.

--Dave

It's now a cat 4 and expected to be downgraded in a few hours. A hurricane hitting a low elevation area is different than one hitting mountains, the low is now at 946 millibars.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP5+shtml/240242.shtml

[Count Nerfedalot]

West Coastal Mexico? where the heck do you run from a hurricane there?  get above the storm surge and you'll be in mountains sliding right back down into the sea. God help them!

I *have* experienced hurricane force winds, twice, once as a lark on Mt. Washington, where I was able to lean over 45 degrees into the wind and still stay up.

And once as I huddled in the dark in my house in Charlotte, NC (100 miles inland!) during Hugo listening to trees crashing down around me and deciding to move from my bedroom on the wind side to the living room with the plate glass sliding door on the lee side, partly because my neighbor's tree was brushing my bedroom window, and partly because the curtains over said window were soaking wet and blowing in the breeze coming around the edges of it, in spite of having storm windows as well!  Then the eye passed over shortly after dawn and I went outside and watched as more of my shingles blew off.  Absolutely awe-inspiring and something that really makes you feel puny.  I lost shingles down to plywood over a couple hundred square feet of my roof. My back door neighbor, about 5 feet higher in elevation, lost a third of his shingles. his neighbor across the street in a straight line from my house through the second to the third and another 5 feet higher in elevation lost half of his roof.  We were guessing either microburst or small tornado, probably microburst because all the trees were down in the same direction, no twisting, but it may well have been just the straight winds.  The straight winds at the airport were clocked at 80 mph and gusts up to 100 mph early in the storm but then the anemometer was destroyed! LOL  And we had it MUCH better than the folks in Charleston.

Oh. And I learned that not only do ATM's and credit card swipes not work when the power is out, but neither do gas pumps, and my neighbor's electric chain saw may just have been the most pathetically silly worthless thing I've ever seen! 

[Morat20]

I rode out Ike. Ike sucked. It was huge, so when it hit it knocked out power over a HUGE area. And then it just kept going north, and continued to pound the shit out of Texas. Then it turned into some monster ice-storm/hellspawn and basically fucked people in three states.

All the thousands of trucks, linesman, etc that converge on a town hit by a hurricane? They got smeared over three or four states. If Ike had just collapsed like normal, or had been a sane damn size, people's power would have been out a few days instead of a few weeks.

Then there was Allison. Allison was just a fucking bitch, that's all there is to it. "Just" a tropical storm. It squatted on Houston and let lose 35 inches of rain. It wouldn't leave, and it just sat there, perfectly positioned to snap up water from the ocean and drop it on the town. Three freakin' feet in like two days. On already wet ground.

It was a nightmare. They spent the next decade upgrading the entire water plans for Houston to try to mitigate that in the future. The cost was astronomical ---- houses that had never had water in them for 40 or 50 years of hurricanes were knee deep. The Medical Center? Lost tens of millions, minimum, in research when they flooded ---- specially bred lab rats, cell cultures -- some of it not even remotely replaceable.

Mother nature is a hard-ass.

[kaid]

Looks like they escaped with few if any fatalities lots of trees down but it looks like largely it missed most settlements and slammed into the mountains and expended a lot of its strength there blunting damage that was done. Lots of trees down and property damage but they really dodged a bullet given how little warning they had and how strong of a storm it was.