MLB 2013

[WayAbvPar]

First - he's unarguably a worse defender than Bourn, who is the best defensive CF in the game by a pretty large margin IMO. Fielding Bible gave their award to Trout but I think Bourn was better. Point being, Atlanta fans are going to feel like they're seeing a dropoff when they watch him and they probably will be right.

Second - the naked eye is not always the best judge of defense. We're usually looking at the batter for long enough that we miss what kind of jump an OF gets on a ball, so we only see the 'catch' part and think a guy who makes great catches - and Upton *does* do this impressively - is a great defender, even if we're missing the fact that there are balls that other guys get to that he's missing. Advanced metrics for fielding are not yet as reliable as those for hitting, but they're a lot better than they used to be and they tend to have Upton as an average-to-pretty-good fielder overall. (Assuming I didn't fuck up my filter at FanGraphs he's actually slightly below average on both UZR and defensive runs saved in 2012.)

That is Ken Griffey Jr to a tee. I think he got a reputation as a great defender for making spectacular catches, while the truly great defenders make it look easy because they are always in the right place ahead of the ball.

[cmlancas]

First - he's unarguably a worse defender than Bourn, who is the best defensive CF in the game by a pretty large margin IMO. Fielding Bible gave their award to Trout but I think Bourn was better. Point being, Atlanta fans are going to feel like they're seeing a dropoff when they watch him and they probably will be right.

I watched a grand total of zero ATL games last year, so okay.  :)

Second - the naked eye is not always the best judge of defense. We're usually looking at the batter for long enough that we miss what kind of jump an OF gets on a ball, so we only see the 'catch' part and think a guy who makes great catches - and Upton *does* do this impressively - is a great defender, even if we're missing the fact that there are balls that other guys get to that he's missing.

I've been a fan, player, coach, umpire in some fashion for 22 years now, and barring a shoulder injury would've played collegiate ball.  What you're referring to is what I call baseball speed, and it's the one or two steps an outfielder gains just by properly reading the position of the pitch and the swing the batter puts on the ball.  I'm certainly not a pro scout though, but it does help me play softball and be competitive even though I'm 30lbs. overweight now (God what I'd kill to be 215 again.).    

I'm not basing this on a SportsCenter highlight reel or who I see on BT's web gems.   I disagree that Upton makes spectacular plays, instead, I think he makes less of those because he's so damn fast and tracks down balls without having to leave his feet.  Also, he tends to play shallower than less talented CFs (Crawford did this too in left), having watched a few games in the bullpen sections.

I suppose one defensive knock on him would be his arm strength, which is average to below average.

I can only comment on what I watched, and I'm by no means a baseball statistician.  And what I saw (both on TV andand attending 13-ish games?), was a guy that had a good chance to make tough plays unless a ball was scorched into a gap.  But, maybe that doesn't translate well into advanced baseball metrics.  

Or, maybe he's just not that good and I'm a homer.

But, I'll go with five years at seventy-five million substantiating my point.

Edit:  Goddammit Droid 4, stop putting smilies in weird places.

[cmlancas]

stuff

That is Ken Griffey Jr to a tee. I think he got a reputation as a great defender for making spectacular catches, while the truly great defenders make it look easy because they are always in the right place ahead of the ball.

It absolutely is, but that's not B.J. Upton.  I think part of Upton's negative perceptions of laziness in 2010 were partly because he makes CF look easy. 

[Paelos]

Knowing Frank Wren's "Big Money" moves, this will probably be a total clusterfuck. He's yet to make a big free agent signing over $10M a year that wasn't a letdown, if not a total fuckup.

[Ingmar]

I will say I don't like what this does to Angel Pagan's years/dollar numbers. It pushes it more towards a 4 year deal being likely for him and that's one more than I'd feel comfortable giving him.

[Ingmar]

Another CF domino falls, as the Twins trade Denard Span to the Nationals for Alex Meyer, a 6'9" college pitching prospect with some nice peripherals who made it up to high A in his first season. Really nice pickup, Span is a bargain for what he gives you.

[Paelos]

And that was the guy I was hoping for our LF spot, so... fuck.

[Ingmar]

I hate the David Wright deal for the Mets. Too many years. I'd rather pay him 5/$100 than 8/$138, even though it's a higher yearly rate.

[Ingmar]

Enjoyed this, from a few days ago:

http://blogs.thescore.com/mlb/2012/11/21/flip-flop-fly-ball-losing-my-religion/

[HaemishM]

He's in for a long season. 

[WayAbvPar]

That poor bastard. Someone good-hearted enough to take a public piss on Murdoch and his ilk doesn't deserve to suffer life as a Mariners fan.

[Paelos]

I mean shit, he almost picked the Cubs.

[Teleku]

Kind of sad he randomly discarded the A's in that article without giving any reason what so ever, unlike every other team.

[HaemishM]

I mean shit, he almost picked the Cubs.

At least he'd have had the sympathy of baseball fans everywhere. You do not know how many people gave me the thumbs up and talked to me out of the blue when I used to wear my Cubs jacket. Mariners? Most people try to ignore their existence. Teleku's right. At least if he'd picked the A's he'd have a chance in hell of seeing postseason baseball next year.

[Ingmar]

Hell, if the Giants sign Victorino I may be an A's fan until his contract expires.   

[WayAbvPar]

Hop aboard the Mariner bandwagon! We have really good bloggers, plus the team will be out of contention by mid-May so you get your summers and falls to yourself.

[Ingmar]

Angel Pagan deal is one year longer than I'd like, but the $/year isn't as bad as I was afraid it would be and MOST IMPORTANTLY it minimizes the chances of a Victorino signing.

In other news, A-Rod will miss half the season due to hip surgery.

[Paelos]

The Yankees are running a very expensive retirement home.

[Teleku]

I'm really sad it looks like we won't be resigning Brian Wilson.  :(

[Paelos]

Looks like the Mariners are talking to Michael Bourn.

[WayAbvPar]

I'm really sad it looks like we won't be resigning Brian Wilson.  :(

I think the owners should all collude to keep him sidelined until he shaves that goddamned wolverine off of his face.

[Ingmar]

Whole bunch of interesting stuff over the weekend and today.

- Philadelphia goes all in on the race for the oldest team by inexplicably trading for the least valuable regular player in all of MLB last year (Michael Young). Rangers get an absolute gift with this deal.

- White Sox sign a one-legged player (Jeff Keppinger) to a 3 year deal based on basically one good outlier season that happened at an advanced age. The yearly money is chump change, but still.

- Royals trade prospects for a couple decent players in a win-now deal? World, upside down. And not just any prospects, but Wil Myers, who is inarguably among the best remaining minor league prospects in all of baseball, and they threw in a very solid pitcher as well. I think this is an outright *heist* by Tampa Bay, and they continue to prove that they have perhaps the best front office in all of baseball.

- Greinke to Dodgers. They are going to look like Philly in 3 years or less - crippling, expensive, inescapable contracts to players who have age related decline all at the same time. It helps for next year though.

- Youk is about 90% likely to end up a Yankee. This makes me laugh.

[cmlancas]

- White Sox sign a one-legged player (Jeff Keppinger) to a 3 year deal based on basically one good outlier season that happened at an advanced age. The yearly money is chump change, but still.

- Royals trade prospects for a couple decent players in a win-now deal? World, upside down. And not just any prospects, but Wil Myers, who is inarguably among the best remaining minor league prospects in all of baseball, and they threw in a very solid pitcher as well. I think this is an outright *heist* by Tampa Bay, and they continue to prove that they have perhaps the best front office in all of baseball.

I don't know if Kep is worth three years, but he played very, very well in TB.  Maddon has a way with fragile players though.

Also, lols Royals.  You just got fleeced.  TB had seven viable starters (Price, Shields, Moore, Hellickson, Archer, Davis, and Niemann), so we really didn't lose much.  Shields is still a stud though.  A changeup that just doesn't quit. 

[Ingmar]

Shields is good but he's not as good as Tropicana Field and the Rays defense made him look. KC has a pretty bad defense, is a worse park to pitch in, and I can easily see Shields putting an ERA up that's closer to 4 than to 3 this year. His road ERA is 4.29 over the last 3 years, a full point higher than at home.

Royals = dumb. It's really a shame because they'd been doing such a good job with their minor league buildup, and Myers would be taking the job of one of the worst regulars in baseball if he stayed (Francoeur).

====

So, Youk to the Yankees is apparently for sure now. Odds that he gets booed his first time up?

[HaemishM]

I expect Youk to get booed A LOT.

[Ingmar]

I see why the Indians and the Reds made their parts of the 3 way trade (although Reds now don't have a CF...) but I think Arizona made a pretty poor choice there. They seem to be really overrating Gregorius.

[WayAbvPar]

Hamilton to the Angels, 5/125. Glad it wasn't the Ms, but I am sure his inevitable decline won't happen for several years now just to fuck with the Ms.

[Ingmar]

I kind of feel like his inevitable decline has already started. He posted a lower WAR last year than in 2011 despite playing 27 more games. It should help that he isn't going to be in center anymore, though. (Unless the Angels are dumber than I think.)

[Paelos]

He'll be fine for the first two years of that contract.

[Ginaz]

Looks like R.A. Dickey is being traded to Toronto.  The rumoured deal breaks down as follows: going to the Jays is  Dickey, catcher Josh Thole (who caught Dickey last year) and a non-elite prospect, going to the Mets is catching prospect Travis d'Arnaud, pitching prospect Noah Syndergaard, catcher John Buck and a non-elite prospect.  

If this goes through, Toronto will have a starting staff of Dickey, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, Brandon Morrow and Rickey Romero.  If Romero can sort himself out and the rest can pitch like they have in the past, the Jays could have the best starting pitching in baseball.  As a Jays fan, this is the first time in more than 15 years I've been really excited for the next season to start.

[Ingmar]

the Jays could have the best starting pitching in baseball.  As a Jays fan, this is the first time in more than 15 years I've been really excited for the next season to start.

Not much chance of that, but they will have a very good staff, with a shot at being top 5. Jays are set up to do well this year, with the Yankees in a down season, the inevitable crash back to earth for the Orioles, and big question marks in Boston. Tampa Bay is the team to watch out for. And of course, if the Jays underperform this could end very, very badly for everyone concerned, but I think they'll make the playoffs.

[Azaroth]

I'm of two minds about this trade.

My gut reaction is that Anthopoulous decided he was a real wheeler and dealer after the Marlins trade. He was pretty much universally lauded because it looks really lopsided. When in reality, it's pretty clear that Florida ownership had already decided to ditch all of those contracts. It's not like those guys were performing, either. Who says they're going to perform in Toronto? Everyone just kind of assumes they will.

The Mets just got two elite prospects for an old guy with one year left on his deal that wouldn't re-sign. That could very easily come back to bite the Jays in the ass for many years to come. I think it's a damn good deal for the Mets, to be honest. They sold a guy that's 38 at his highest possible value.

On the other hand..

Things could go right and the Jays could be really good this year, or for a few years to come. As someone in Toronto, I'm pretty sick and tired of waiting for tomorrow with the Blue Jays. It's been 20 years since we've had a good team.

[JWIV]

the Jays could have the best starting pitching in baseball.  As a Jays fan, this is the first time in more than 15 years I've been really excited for the next season to start.

Not much chance of that, but they will have a very good staff, with a shot at being top 5. Jays are set up to do well this year, with the Yankees in a down season, the inevitable crash back to earth for the Orioles, and big question marks in Boston. Tampa Bay is the team to watch out for. And of course, if the Jays underperform this could end very, very badly for everyone concerned, but I think they'll make the playoffs.

That really is the question with the O's and their pitching.  Do we get beginning of the year or end of the year Strop?  Does Johnson put up more normal closer numbers, or another career type year?  Same with Miguel Salazar and the rest of the hey, watch us cobble together a starting rotation from guys on the street.

And the O's still haven't done a thing in the offseason to get offensively better (and are slightly worse defensively with the loss of Reynolds from first).  They won a historic number of one run games last year and you can't count on that to occur again. 

So, yah, a lot of questions for what is looking to be a blood bath of a division next year. 

[Ingmar]

I'm of two minds about this trade.

My gut reaction is that Anthopoulous decided he was a real wheeler and dealer after the Marlins trade. He was pretty much universally lauded because it looks really lopsided. When in reality, it's pretty clear that Florida ownership had already decided to ditch all of those contracts. It's not like those guys were performing, either. Who says they're going to perform in Toronto? Everyone just kind of assumes they will.

The Mets just got two elite prospects for an old guy with one year left on his deal that wouldn't re-sign. That could very easily come back to bite the Jays in the ass for many years to come. I think it's a damn good deal for the Mets, to be honest. They sold a guy that's 38 at his highest possible value.

On the other hand..

Things could go right and the Jays could be really good this year, or for a few years to come. As someone in Toronto, I'm pretty sick and tired of waiting for tomorrow with the Blue Jays. It's been 20 years since we've had a good team.

It's one of those trades that really looks like a win/win for both teams. It's a win-now deal for the Blue Jays and a win-later deal for the Mets, and it fits where both of them are on the compete-rebuild cycle pretty well. While I'm as big a proponent as anyone of focusing your resources on young players and prospects, there is a point where you can't keep just developing and trading players and have to make the call to try to take your shot at a championship, and I give Arthropod a lot of credit for recognizing when the window of opportunity has finally cracked open in the AL East.

It could all backfire of course, and then he gets fired, but that's life in the GM seat, unless you're Brian Sabean, in which case they just keep giving you new contracts until you win via dumb luck. 

[WayAbvPar]

Kendrys Morales to Mariners for Jason Vargas. I like it- Morales fills a need, and Vargas would have been hurt by the fences moving in (he is a serious fly ball pitcher, if memory serves). Also saves the Ms about 3M this year, which they need to hand to Bourn or Swisher posthaste.