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Author Topic: Crystal ball predictions  (Read 3824 times)
Spiff
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on: June 17, 2012, 12:51:02 AM

Just as the title says; I feel it's time for some guesstimation (if for nothing else, so we can look back and gloat about how right we were/point and laugh at what fools we were).

To start it off:

A piece on gamebreaker (http://www.gamebreaker.tv/mmorpg/guild0-wars-2-thanksgiving-in-tyria/) quoting a Korean securities firm on NC-Soft and GW2.

Quote from: Gamebreaker link=http://www.gamebreaker.tv/mmorpg/guild0-wars-2-thanksgiving-in-tyria/
The report predicts 3.12 million sales of Guild Wars 2 in North America and Europe in 2012, far exceeding NCSoft’s last big Western release, Aion, which sold 1.5 million copies in 2009. Also, NCSoft will receive $48 out of every $59.99 copy of GW2 sold.

it goes on to predict a lot of 3Q revenue from ... something big launching.

3.12 million seems like an awful lot to sell between then and the end of the year, but of course it's investment babble, about the gaming industry, so I'd expect some pie in the sky.
At a rate of $48 pps (which seems like quite a good deal) that would net them close to 150 mill on basic box sales alone.

As for the release date; I see a lot of people saying: "it needs a lot of work", "is nowhere near ready", I don't see that.
Sure open beta has only seen 3 out of 5 races and is restricted to lower levels, but what I've seen is smooth and apart from some minor tweakage wouldn't launch in a worse state than any other MMO in the past decade.

My money's on an October release and just north of 1 million boxes sold this year (in the west), in the long run however 3 mill+ isn't impossible if they don't micro-trans it to death.
satael
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Reply #1 on: June 17, 2012, 01:28:08 AM

I think the release will do ok in the west if it doesn't launch too close to Mists of Pandaria (which might be inevitable but a launch ie. two months before mop might be ideal). The sales on the long run will depend on whether they can keep the game in the spotlight (and so getting people to try it) and whether the wvwvw and competitive pvp take off (both have potential but it's hard to predict how the "masses" will react).

edit: prediction: 1m initial sales if it launches less than a month after mop, closer to 1.5 if not. +100k for each month both do not announce the release dates.
« Last Edit: June 17, 2012, 01:31:33 AM by satael »
Kageru
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Reply #2 on: June 17, 2012, 02:42:45 AM


It's got good word of mouth, isn't flawed, there's not that much competition in the MMO space and the "no-sub" fee aspect provides a novel value proposition. I think it will sell solidly but have no baseline on what that means, so I'll throw a dart and go for 3-5 million in the first 3 months after release.

Of course the other metric that will be interesting is online activity in the months after launch.

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Dark_MadMax
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Reply #3 on: June 17, 2012, 03:46:21 AM

Well its pretty stable and playable. It is unbalanced as hell and missing many systems for long term gameplay, but I dont think that will be a big barrier. Because it is sub-less game anyways and they only really care for box sales in short term

In long term they can add all other things lacking  and making it an expansion and sell for even more money. Honestly if their pve areas are done to level 80 I d realease it today
Kageru
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Reply #4 on: June 17, 2012, 04:33:57 AM


They aren't really under that much pressure though. Considering they sold a heap of pre-sale copies they've got enough cash to get it to where they want it.

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Brogarn
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Reply #5 on: June 17, 2012, 02:48:27 PM

I think they'll break 3 million. As far as Mists of Pandara coming out, I predict it will have no significant affect on the sale of GW2, nor vice versa.
Ingmar
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Reply #6 on: June 17, 2012, 07:46:47 PM

Since they don't care about sub revenue except in an indirect microtransy way they really only have to worry about MOP in terms of its direct proximity and effect on box sales. As long as they don't launch in the same month it probably has no impact.

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Modern Angel
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Reply #7 on: June 19, 2012, 05:43:39 AM

I'll go four million by the end of three months. I'm under NDA but don't sleep on this. Remember, GW1 sold some stupid number of boxes even when they were full price and it wasn't remotely as good a game. It was a different game, which totally alters the metrics, but this one is way more accessible. NCSoft also seems to realize how much is riding on GW2's success so they ArenaNet seems to have a whole lot of leeway as far as release date, so I'll also predict that the launch build will be smooth and polished in a way we don't often see.
Lantyssa
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Reply #8 on: June 19, 2012, 06:31:45 AM

Since they will have to use sales and not subs as a metric, I will say 2 million at three months.  Other MMO launches have seen over a million sales, and this has the advantage of buy once, play forever.

Even with stellar word of mouth it will take some time to build up to 3 or 4 million players, although I have no doubt they will reach that number faster than they did with GW1.

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Sky
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Reply #9 on: June 19, 2012, 08:10:27 AM

I think it will sell about 100k copies.

Then it can SMASH MY EXPECTATIONS!

Draegan
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Reply #10 on: June 19, 2012, 08:17:34 AM

I will say 1 million after one month depending on the marketing.  5 million units sold after 1 year depending on how much they muck up the cash shop.
Nebu
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Reply #11 on: June 19, 2012, 08:30:43 AM

With no subscription and moderate P2P model, I'll say an easy 3 million.  If it were a subscription game, I doubt that they would break 1 million.  There's something about GW2 that makes it feel a lot more grindy than the original.  I played the hell out of GW but GW2 just doesn't seem to hold my interest.  While they have advanced the genre a little by streamlining PQ's, it just feels too much like a mashup of existing titles to draw me in.  I'm not thrilled with the pvp that I've played either. 

Sure... I'll play it to cap on at least one toon when it releases before I make my final judgement.  Right now my beta experience left me pretty lackluster about the game.

"Always do what is right. It will gratify half of mankind and astound the other."

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Kageru
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Reply #12 on: June 19, 2012, 08:46:44 AM

There's something about GW2 that makes it feel a lot more grindy than the original.

... must have been a different GW1 from the one I played, because its PvE was incredibly repetitive.

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Nebu
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Reply #13 on: June 19, 2012, 08:55:14 AM

... must have been a different GW1 from the one I played, because its PvE was incredibly repetitive.

I only pve'd to get the abilities I wanted for pvp and then was done with it.  Leveling to cap and getting the abilities I wanted took me almost no time at all.  The shift from a pvp game to a pve game is where I'm feeling the grind most.  Now I have to get to the endgame to get the most out of the pvp experience and the trip will be a LOT longer than in the original. 

I'll try my best to be open-minded about the pve, but it's really not all that special.  It's an improved version of WAR's pve and we all know what that was like over time.

"Always do what is right. It will gratify half of mankind and astound the other."

-  Mark Twain
kildorn
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Reply #14 on: June 19, 2012, 09:03:56 AM

GW1's grind had little to do with level (except the core game which had a long leveling curve, the expansions had MUCH better pve), and a lot to do with the title tracks being grindy as shit if you cared about them. Prophecies just took for freaking every to slog through, honestly.
Riggswolfe
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Reply #15 on: June 19, 2012, 09:04:17 AM

I think these numbers being tossed around are very, very optimistic personally. The pve doesn't grab and it's one of the few betas in recent memory I couldn't be bothered to spend more than a day with. The other? GW1. I think it'll probably do 1-2 million at launch but I don't see it holding on to alot of people except maybe the pvpers since WvW sounds like it will tickle their funny bones.

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Draegan
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Reply #16 on: June 19, 2012, 10:14:43 AM

I love the PVE in this game.  It grabs me completely.  I love being able to just run around and do stuff instead of quest hubbing it from 1-max.  I also love the PVP in this game where I typically hate the PVP in most DIKU games.
Nebu
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Reply #17 on: June 19, 2012, 10:39:36 AM

I love the PVE in this game.  It grabs me completely.  I love being able to just run around and do stuff instead of quest hubbing it from 1-max.  I also love the PVP in this game where I typically hate the PVP in most DIKU games.

I really enjoyed pvp in Rift and SWTOR (and WAR/DAoC of course) but can't seem to get into it in GW2.  It feels much too slow for my tastes.  Does it get better in the mid to late game?

"Always do what is right. It will gratify half of mankind and astound the other."

-  Mark Twain
kildorn
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Reply #18 on: June 19, 2012, 10:43:11 AM

I really love the pve, but I still think 3-4M quickly is way too optimistic.
Bungee
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Reply #19 on: June 19, 2012, 11:17:11 AM

I love the PVE in this game.  It grabs me completely.  I love being able to just run around and do stuff instead of quest hubbing it from 1-max.  I also love the PVP in this game where I typically hate the PVP in most DIKU games.

I really enjoyed pvp in Rift and SWTOR (and WAR/DAoC of course) but can't seem to get into it in GW2.  It feels much too slow for my tastes.  Does it get better in the mid to late game?

If you want late-game PvP just jump into the Battlegrounds (not W3). Everybody is lvl 80 there and has all skills unlocked + equal gear.

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kildorn
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Reply #20 on: June 19, 2012, 11:22:36 AM

http://www.arena.net/blog/is-it-fun-colin-johanson-on-how-arenanet-measures-success

Slightly related to the thread, a blog on what they're trying to use as a development metric since they don't care about chasing subscriptions. Less on the GW2 front, it does to me indicate the gameplay differences between boxed games and MMOs: while both want content, MMOs seem to have a crunch for more content, and usually start to have sub issues when they have content lulls.
Draegan
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Reply #21 on: June 19, 2012, 11:36:06 AM

I love the PVE in this game.  It grabs me completely.  I love being able to just run around and do stuff instead of quest hubbing it from 1-max.  I also love the PVP in this game where I typically hate the PVP in most DIKU games.

I really enjoyed pvp in Rift and SWTOR (and WAR/DAoC of course) but can't seem to get into it in GW2.  It feels much too slow for my tastes.  Does it get better in the mid to late game?

Most of my pvp experience is sPVP and I love the hell out of it.  I don't think it's slow at all.
Segoris
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Reply #22 on: June 19, 2012, 11:42:48 AM

If you want late-game PvP just jump into the Battlegrounds (not W3). Everybody is lvl 80 there and has all skills unlocked + equal gear.

Apples to oranges.

That said, as someone who hates instanced pvp, I actually really enjoy sPVP in this game. I've always been about world pvp, but have no problem finding hours of fun in sPVP. The trick (for me at least) is finding what class and playstyle fit you, which may not be what you usually play in other games which will take people time to realize and explore.
Draegan
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Reply #23 on: June 19, 2012, 11:43:45 AM

How is that apples to oranges?
Segoris
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Reply #24 on: June 19, 2012, 11:49:58 AM

Apples to oranges was regarding someone suggesting that if someone isn't enjoying world pvp to go to instanced pvp. I don't think I need to break down the attraction of world pvp for some people compared to instanced pvp here, do I?
Nebu
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Reply #25 on: June 19, 2012, 11:50:06 AM

Could we get a mod to place this discussion/topic in a new thread about GW2 pvp?  

I apologize for the derail.  

"Always do what is right. It will gratify half of mankind and astound the other."

-  Mark Twain
Draegan
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Reply #26 on: June 19, 2012, 12:17:46 PM

The huge difference between WvW and sPVP for newer players is that W3 takes your existing character (gear and skills) and just boosts your stats.  So you can jump in W3 at level 5 and have only 1 utility skill unlocked, no weapon swapping and shitty noob gear.  That's why it could appear to be slow.

On the flip side, sPVP gives you a full level 80 character with all skills unlocked and all your trait points.  Everyone has access to the same gear and the only difference between players is skill and knowledge and teamwork.  

So you might not be enjoying W3 because you're a low level character, that gets tossed into a game where the power difference is amazingly different just based on what skills and abilities you have access too.  It's kind of like EVE where you can play right a way!  Just be a tackler (or whatever) and you fall asleep.  But by suggesting you jump into sPVP that same player might go "Ooooh so this is what my class can do.  Hey this is fun!"
« Last Edit: June 19, 2012, 12:19:59 PM by Draegan »
Segoris
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Reply #27 on: June 19, 2012, 12:59:59 PM

So I read Bungee's comment as if he was saying that skipping w3 and joining sPVP is the solution to someone not enjoying w3 since everyone is level 80 in sPVP even though the playstyles, mentality, and reasons for enjoyment are entirely different. If that comment was meant as a suggestion simply to try a level 80 character due to having more abilities and weapon switching at one's fingertips so someone knows how a character can play at level 80 then that I can agree with.

Just as long as the player trying sPVP to learn how their character remembers that mobility and range are much more valued in w3 compared to the ability of having staying power and knockbacks for point control for sPVP for some characters.
Draegan
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Reply #28 on: June 19, 2012, 01:06:22 PM

Well yes, the motivations and gameplay are completely different between sPVP and W3.  I agree.  I was just commenting on a way to get a general sense of how PVP is like, you're better off jumping in sPVP during a beta weekend.
Phred
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Reply #29 on: June 19, 2012, 01:25:38 PM

I love the PVE in this game.  It grabs me completely.  I love being able to just run around and do stuff instead of quest hubbing it from 1-max.  I also love the PVP in this game where I typically hate the PVP in most DIKU games.

Plus one on that.
Kageru
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Reply #30 on: June 19, 2012, 05:12:58 PM


Yeah, I thought the PvE was as good as anything on the market. Both a rich world you feel grounded in and decent mechanics. Though I still think there's lots of refinement possible in their skills design, but then balancing and refining is eternal.

I think one of the reasons higher numbers could be imagined for this one is that the MMO player base is larger, Anet are better known so don't need to depend on a massive advertising blitz and the market is more ready for non-subscription MMO's.

Is a man not entitled to the hurf of his durf?
- Simond
satael
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Reply #31 on: January 18, 2013, 02:42:43 AM

Necroing a prediction thread for http://massively.joystiq.com/2013/01/15/arenanet-sells-three-million-copies-of-guild-wars-2-looks-to-th/
( I predicted too low since they reached 2m already in September)

All in all, they should be in the red for gw2.

oops, meant in the black, thanks for the correction. Funny how I managed to mix up one of the sayings that I know the basis for  ACK!
« Last Edit: January 18, 2013, 04:28:10 AM by satael »
eldaec
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Reply #32 on: January 18, 2013, 02:57:37 AM

In the black.

Or out of the red.


In the red is the bad one.

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