Gentle Peoples Bets on Launch Numbers

[Cheddar]

10M Sold first week!   

[Viin]

My brother knows a guy who use to play Diablo 1, and he thinks it'll be 3MM first week.

[Xuri]

Over 9000...thousand! (9.000.001)

[Paelos]

6.66 million

[calapine]

My brother knows a guy who use to play Diablo 1, and he thinks it'll be 3MM first week.

Based on my inside industry knowledge gained from playing Diablo AND World of Warcraft I'd predict something like:

2 million launch week and 5m lifetime

[schild]

With people who subbed for a year of WoW (even those who don't care about Diablo 3)?

8 million, easy. But that's conservative. Let's go with 15M and shoot the fucking moon.

[Azazel]

Not sure if the Korean players got the same Annual-sub-Blizzard-deal as us Westerners though. Gots to remember those numbers also count the huge Asian markets.

[Segoris]

Based on my experience of one time staying at a Holiday Inn express...I'll go with 12m

SC2 had what, 11 mil? That was without the bonus of annual passes (which surely most would have bought D3 anyways, but still helps boost numbers).

[calapine]

ok, this got me interested, here are some past numbers:

Starcraft: 11m total

Starcraft II: 3m first month, 4.5m total

Diablo: 2.5m total

Diablo II: 4 m total (not counting LoD)


Well, maybe 5m lifetime sales was a bit too cautious, I still stand by my 2m first week though.

Edit: correction

[Slayerik]

7 mil

[Furiously]

I'm wondering if the internet required will lose more sales than the can't pirate it will make.....

[calapine]

I'm wondering if the internet required will lose more sales than the can't pirate it will make.....

really, really doubt that. Maybe with other games, but not in this case.

[Merusk]

2 1/2 mil 1st week.

4 mil 1st month.

[Xanthippe]

3.5mil first week.

8mil first month.

[Shatter]

3.5mil first week.

8mil first month.

I'll bid 3.51 first week.

8.1mil first month.

[fuser]

5mil first week

10mil first month

[Teleku]

I'm wondering if the internet required will lose more sales than the can't pirate it will make.....

Yeah, don't think so in this case.  I believe 99% of people who would have pirated it really want to play it, so will shell out money.  So in this particular case, its going to win blizzard a ton of extra money.

But you can only really do that with decade long hyped games.  See how valve used Half Life 2 to effectively launch steam to the masses and force it down publishers screaming throats.

[Malakili]

7.5 million Why? Because I have no idea what I'm talking about.

[naum]

10M first month

[Pendan]

A friend of mine did the WoW for one year thing. He did not even have to enter a code for D3. Today it auto showed in his account. So they already claimed 1.2 million signed up for the WoW for one year and they will claim all these people in sales numbers.  On top of that it was the best pre-order ever for both Blizzard and Amazon. 2 million is first week is way low. It is too low for even first day. With world wide rollout at same time I think 3 million in first week easily and maybe 4 million.

[Soln]

3.5M units first month

11M units 2012

[Ingmar]

I think it does at least 5 million first month, and that might be quite low. People I know who haven't played video games in years are playing this.

[Llyse]

7 mill first month 12 mill overall

[Outlawedprod]

Word of mouth campaign is underway I see. =p
http://www.metacritic.com/game/pc/diablo-iii/user-reviews

[Mrbloodworth]

I played the Starter edition last night. I can't say I am impressed with a game 10 years in the making. Personally, I feel torchlight and Path of exile are better games, especially in terms of moving thing forward and innovation. I found most of my time extremely restrictive, perhaps because Path of exile is so open level layout wise, and you can make your own class. Torchlight has more character than this, and even simple things like the pets are a big step forward for this style of game. I did not even really feel like i was playing a Diablo game, it feels more, on most levels, like it was built for Wow converts, rather than fans of the previous games. From the Skill system to the crafting. In terms of graphics, this is more akin to Warcraft then Diablo in stylization, and atmosphere. Also, at its current camera distance, I felt like I was squinting most of the time to see what was going on, and when I press Z, I feel its to close to see anything ahead.

Having said that, the name Diablo and some of the reoccurring things from the previous titles will likely carry this title. Its not a bad title, but its certainly lacking in terms of using the Diablo name, and taking ten years to produce. Especially compared to more forward moving games in the same genre.

Also, the invention of lag/disconnect in a single player mode is indeed innovative. So is the Cue to log into battle.net to play alone, last night Battle.net was "Full". 

/flamesuit on

[Cheddar]

<words>

All I know is I click a magical button called "Join Public Group" and am magically paired up with some random players.  We then go blow shit up and pick up shiny stuff.

Fun so far- we will see how it goes from here.

[Maledict]

The idea that graphically & atmosphere wise this is like WoW always staggers me.

This is one of the most bloody, gore filled violent games I've played. I recently came across the giant carcass of a demon skinned alive and eviscerated, with its entrails hanging out onto the floor and it's insides stapled against the wall.

It's one of the few games I'd actually think twice about letting a kid play - some areas really are just that unpleasant and violent. Its far more grotesque that Diablo 2 in that regards.

[Numtini]

All I know is I click a magical button called "Join Public Group" and am magically paired up with some random players.  We then go blow shit up and pick up shiny stuff.

Yes, the online and random group part of this game is the killer app. The gameplay and design is far far better suited to the "LFD Tool" style gameplay that has taken over MMOs. It's not what I'd describe as the gameplay being similar, more the "game lifestyle" is similar.

[Xuri]

The idea that graphically & atmosphere wise this is like WoW always staggers me.

This is one of the most bloody, gore filled violent games I've played. I recently came across the giant carcass of a demon skinned alive and eviscerated, with its entrails hanging out onto the floor and it's insides stapled against the wall.

It's one of the few games I'd actually think twice about letting a kid play - some areas really are just that unpleasant and violent. Its far more grotesque that Diablo 2 in that regards.

It's a strange mix of comical looking monsters (balloon-zombies!) and gore/blood. Diablo 1 was "darker" (not colors - setting, atmosphere, overall feel), though. Partially due to music and atmospheric sound-effects, which were more "prominent" in the first game, while in the current one they blend more into the background.

[Mrbloodworth]

[Merusk]

Diablo 1 & 2 were "Darker" because your imagination filled out the holes in the shitty 600x800 res 32-bit graphics & 4-color palette.  High-res 1950x1080 with 32 million colors causes quite a different look.

Folks who don't like it can bitch all they want about it, it's foolish. I'm not sorry they decided there's more to a color palette than black brown white and red.

[Mrbloodworth]

Not really about color, color was fine. But for a series heralded for its fidelity of the time ( Do to rendered assets ), D3 does not really do justice to the look and feel expected when transitioned to full 3d assets.  I feel Poe has advanced in that category, is is more of the evolution expected. IMO. Especially with the resources available to them.

D3 uses small undetailed textures, little modern rendering, and woefully small polygon counts. Its not a bad looking game taken for what it is. The lack of the ability to set a comfortable zoom level is a result of those choices however. I can also play with 15 of my friends in POE.. There is just so much about this title that does not seem forward thinking or features for a title with the Diablo name and blizzard as its maker.

[Hutch]

I played the Starter edition last night. I can't say I am impressed with a game 10 years in the making. Personally, I feel torchlight and Path of exile are better games, especially in terms of moving thing forward and innovation. I found most of my time extremely restrictive, perhaps because Path of exile is so open level layout wise, and you can make your own class. Torchlight has more character than this, and even simple things like the pets are a big step forward for this style of game. I did not even really feel like i was playing a Diablo game, it feels more, on most levels, like it was built for Wow converts, rather than fans of the previous games. From the Skill system to the crafting. In terms of graphics, this is more akin to Warcraft then Diablo in stylization, and atmosphere. Also, at its current camera distance, I felt like I was squinting most of the time to see what was going on, and when I press Z, I feel its to close to see anything ahead.

Having said that, the name Diablo and some of the reoccurring things from the previous titles will likely carry this title. Its not a bad title, but its certainly lacking in terms of using the Diablo name, and taking ten years to produce. Especially compared to more forward moving games in the same genre.

Also, the invention of lag/disconnect in a single player mode is indeed innovative. So is the Cue to log into battle.net to play alone, last night Battle.net was "Full". 

/flamesuit on

Man, you are so hard to figure out. Were you grown in a tank or something? This is either blatant trolling, or your nervous system is hooked up differently than everyone else.

I've only /played for maybe 6 hours so far, but when I'm out in a dank, death-encrusted field, or a creepy underground lair, shooting skeletons, zombies, and horrible exploding demons in the face, it *feels* more like the old Diablo, than Torchlight or any of the other Diablo-alikes that I've tried in the intervening ten years. (disclaimer: I haven't tried PoE)

I agree that the skill system and the crafting are different, but those are the sorts of advancements that you are quick to praise in other games.

Those are just the logistical support systems though. The tip of the spear is your toon, with a handful of skills on the hotkeys, blowing monsters up like loot pinatas.

[Mrbloodworth]

I think you may have misinterpreted what I wrote. I did not say atmosphere wise Torchlight is more like the original Diablo, I said it has more character. As to the skills, there is a line where streamline becomes simplification for no real reason for me. Also, I will always, ALWAYS vote in favor of less linear progression. In this regards POE has spoiled me greatly. I don't think I can ever play a game like this and not be able to have such flexibility. Roll your own class has to great a pull for me.

This skill system seems like I have been given a pair of safety scissors, in the same way there are no longer any bad picks in Wow.

I did not, in my original post, bring up that my toon seems to target what he wants to target, no matter what I have targeted ( red outline ), also the sloppiness of the target selection ( can't just hover, must re-click ) In this regard, its another point in both Torchlight and POEs column for me. I do not need the game picking my targets, I do not care if they are closer.

Anyway, I should let time pass for the nostalgia haze to pass, and also to spend a bit more time with it, before trying to discuss this game.

[Rokal]

Comparing a picture of a crypt from D1, a celestial town from D2, an ancient civilization (?) from D3, and a cave from PoE

I suppose this was more accurate than just comparing a crypt from all 4 games, huh?