MLB 2012

[Paelos]

I am READY. I am READY FOR BASEBALL for a SECOND SEASON IN A ROW. This is unprecedented! 

<high five!>

[ghost]

I might actually go to a game or two.  It's too bad I could give a shit about the Texas teams.

The last game I saw was Houston versus the Marlins.   

[ghost]

AJ Burnett thinks too many people tinkered with his form.

"I let a few too many people tinker with me, maybe," Burnett said. "When you let that happen, you start doubting yourself sometimes. You wonder, 'Am I doing it right? Is this how it's supposed to feel?' and things like that. In '09, nobody messed with me. I was able to do what I wanted to do on the mound, whether it was turn around, close my eyes and pitch upside down. Then you have a few bad games and you start changing and listening."

 

This coming from a guy that has had one decent year in his career.  Maybe you're just not a great pitcher, AJ. 

[Paelos]

This coming from a guy that has had one decent year in his career.  Maybe you're just not a great pitcher, AJ. 

3 decent years. 2002, 2005, and 2008. All 200+ innings with wins on shitty teams and a 4 or less ERA. Also big K numbers.

The other years? Greasefire. Winning 1 out of every 3 starts and pitching with a 5 ERA isn't about people messing with you. That's your stuff not translating to the headcase scenario that is the Yankees.

[ghost]

He was 12-12 in 2005 and 12-9 in 2002.  I don't consider .500 a decent year by any method of looking at it.  I guess I could maybe give you 12-9 as decent, but only because he had 5 shut outs. 

[Paelos]

Wins as a pitcher are deceiving when you're on a terrible hitting team. In 2002, he got 11 runs of support during his 9 losses. In 2005, in 7 of his 12 losses, his team scored 2 runs or less.

You judge a pitching on 3 things in my book. ERA, Innings, and WHIP. The wins are almost entirely out of his control.

[Ingmar]

He was 12-12 in 2005 and 12-9 in 2002.  I don't consider .500 a decent year by any method of looking at it.  I guess I could maybe give you 12-9 as decent, but only because he had 5 shut outs. 

You should never, ever, ever, EVER look at a pitcher's win-loss record. It is utterly meaningless in every way. Seriously. Stop it.

[ghost]

I am a consumer.  I'll look at it any way I damned well choose!

Wins as a pitcher are deceiving when you're on a terrible hitting team. In 2002, he got 11 runs of support during his 9 losses. In 2005, in 7 of his 12 losses, his team scored 2 runs or less.

Well, obviously his opponent did a better job than he did on those days..... 

[Paelos]

In other news, Giants are telling Buster Posey not to block the plate ever again.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/sns-rt-bbo-giants-newssxb5a55a1-20120220,0,7843585.story

Candyass. 

[Ingmar]

Good, blocking the plate is retarded from a risk/reward standpoint.

[ghost]

There should be other ways to try and get people out at home. 

[HaemishM]

Going to have to chime in with the win-loss record for pitchers. Until you hit about 15/16 wins, they are pretty meaningless as a gauge of pitching prowess. Teams that score a fuckton of runs (HI THERE YANKEES!) can have pitchers routinely give up 4, 5 or 6 runs and still win 50% of each starter's games. Pitchers with shit for run support can have ERA's in the 2.00's and have 19 losses. Innings pitched, ERA, runs allowed and SO/BB ratio are big stats in my book.

Burnett's numbers since moving to the AL in 2006 were a good bit higher than his numbers in Florida. The year he won 18 games (2008) his ERA was 4.07, he gave up almost .5 runs per inning, but he was an innings eater. He's been a #3 guy at best, and by now, he's a #4 or #5 at best, probably better suited to the National League. Put him in a place like San Diego and his ERA will drop almost half a run. In a bandbox like Yankee Stadium, he gets clobbered.

[ghost]

But he had the run support in New York.......

I could see your argument if the guy was a complete badass on a good team, but he hasn't been.  He's been mediocre everywhere he's been, except for one year...... 

[Paelos]

Watch him on Pittsburgh this year. He'll post a 3.8 ERA with 190 innings and 11 wins.

[HaemishM]

I'm not sure about the 11 wins, but his ERA will probably hover around 4 something.

[ghost]

Well, last year he had a ERA of 5.  I don't think the move to the NL is going to help him that much. 

[Paelos]

Well, last year he had a ERA of 5.  I don't think the move to the NL is going to help him that much. 

See these kinds of statements make me question your baseball knowledge.

For one, the NL scores fewer runs across the board. Two, he's moving from the AL East (most runs by any division), to the NL Central (Worst run differential in the NL). Three, Karstens, Maholm, and Morton all managed to carry less than a 4ERA in a season with the Pirates where they only won 72 games.

He'll be fine. He's not a busted starter just because he couldn't hack it against the best hitters in baseball every start.

[caladein]

He's also very unlikely to have a 17% HR/FB rate again, although he did have a worse one once before.

[ghost]

Well, last year he had a ERA of 5.  I don't think the move to the NL is going to help him that much. 

See these kinds of statements make me question your baseball knowledge.

For one, the NL scores fewer runs across the board. Two, he's moving from the AL East (most runs by any division), to the NL Central (Worst run differential in the NL). Three, Karstens, Maholm, and Morton all managed to carry less than a 4ERA in a season with the Pirates where they only won 72 games.

He'll be fine. He's not a busted starter just because he couldn't hack it against the best hitters in baseball every start.

Is it really a stretch to think that he won't be any good?  He sucked before against lesser competition.  I'm sure he'll find it within himself to suck against lesser competition yet again.

[Paelos]

Did he key your car or something? You're really reaching here if your argument is that he sucked in the AL East. Honestly.

[Margalis]

It's quite common for average pitchers to move to the NL from the AL and become great. I don't think he'll be great but he should have a better year for sure, unless he regresses quite a bit.

[Sjofn]

He was 12-12 in 2005 and 12-9 in 2002.  I don't consider .500 a decent year by any method of looking at it.  I guess I could maybe give you 12-9 as decent, but only because he had 5 shut outs. 

You should never, ever, ever, EVER look at a pitcher's win-loss record. It is utterly meaningless in every way. Seriously. Stop it.

MATT CAIN IS THE WORST PITCHER EVER

[ghost]

Did he key your car or something? You're really reaching here if your argument is that he sucked in the AL East. Honestly.

My argument is not that he sucked in the AL East.  My argument (which is well supported by his lifetime barely over .500 record) is that he SUCKS.  

Just as an FYI-  his record in the pitcher's heaven of the NL was sub .500.  He had the one good year in 2002, in which he had 5 shut outs, a decent WHIP, etc., but otherwise he was curdled milk. 

[caladein]

Even if you just want to go by ERA, his career mark is 5% better than average when adjusted for league and ballpark.  A roughly average starter that can throw nearly 200 innings has a lot of value to a lot of teams, especially when the old club is paying most of the bill.

[ghost]

He ought to fit in great with the Pirates then.   

[JWIV]

I am ready to see how our awesome off-season of buying mediocre pitchers and trading away our one decent pitcher is going to translate into an over .500 season.      Of course, word is the Angelos the Ever-living is trying to sell the team, which would be great.  Except he's trying to sell the team and keep the television rights, which means nobody with even a shred of business sense is going to even look at the deal. 

[HaemishM]

Burnett pitching for the Pirates in the NL Central absolutely should be able to improve his ERA by a whole run. Think about the NL Central for a moment. No more Albert Pujols, no more Prince Fielder. Milwaukee's next best power guy is Ryan Braun - who is about to serve a 50-game suspension for steroid use. The Cubs hitting is atrocious now that Ramirez is gone - they don't have a true #4 hitter (and their #3 may be Castro who isn't a power guy). Houston is fucking awful and not likely to scare anyone with anything. Cincy and the Brewers are the best hitting teams left in the division and Votto is coming off solid but unspectacular year.

Compare that to the Yankees, Rays, Red Sox and Blue Jays as your division opponents and there's no contest. He'll be better. He won't be great but barring injury, I don't think he'll suck. The NL Central is neck in neck with the NL West as some of the worst hitting teams in baseball.

[Paelos]

Let's not say things we can't take back. The NL West will always be where hitting goes to die.

[ghost]

All right-  gambling for bragging rights.  I say he sucks this year.  Winner to be decided in September, because the Pirates aren't going anywhere soon.

[HaemishM]

Unbold prediction - the Pirates will be better than both the Cubs and the Astros this year. 

[Paelos]

All right-  gambling for bragging rights.  I say he sucks this year.  Winner to be decided in September, because the Pirates aren't going anywhere soon.

Define your terms. I want exactly numbers so I can dispute your W/L bullshit as "sucks" 

[Zar]

Burnett pitching for the Pirates in the NL Central absolutely should be able to improve his ERA by a whole run. Think about the NL Central for a moment. No more Albert Pujols, no more Prince Fielder. Milwaukee's next best power guy is Ryan Braun - who is about to serve a 50-game suspension for steroid use. The Cubs hitting is atrocious now that Ramirez is gone - they don't have a true #4 hitter (and their #3 may be Castro who isn't a power guy). Houston is fucking awful and not likely to scare anyone with anything. Cincy and the Brewers are the best hitting teams left in the division and Votto is coming off solid but unspectacular year.

Compare that to the Yankees, Rays, Red Sox and Blue Jays as your division opponents and there's no contest. He'll be better. He won't be great but barring injury, I don't think he'll suck. The NL Central is neck in neck with the NL West as some of the worst hitting teams in baseball.

Eh, while the Cardinals will surely miss Pujols' bat, for at least this year, a heart of the order that includes Holliday, Berkman, and Beltran is nothing to sneeze at.  The question is whether Berkman and Beltran will decline, and if so, to what extent.  The projections out there have them holding up pretty well this year though.  Molina and Allen Craig have some nice pop as well.

I wouldn't discount the Cardinals' hitting too much based only on the absence of Pujols.  I'm actually pretty optimistic about the Cards' chances this year, which is somewhat unexpected given Pujols' departure.  It helps that Wainwright is back.

[Paelos]

Beltran and Berkman will miss a combined 100 games this year, is my bet. One or both of them is due to get hurt for an extended period.

[HaemishM]

What Paelos said. Berkman's last year was a bit of an outlier. He won't be bad, but he and Beltran together MIGHT make up for the lost Pujols production - but that won't replace Berkman's production. One of those young kids is going to have to come on bigger than expected. Holliday is also due an injury.

But it's the NL Central and it will be a black hole of sadness this year. Nobody in that division is a clear frontrunner - Cincy, Milwaukee and St. Louis will fight for that division with the other 3 sucking hind tit. It only remains to be seen how bad the other 3 really are.

[Ingmar]

My copy of Prospectus is here! 

If Cincy can get decent pitching I like their chances in the Central. Brewers look to have the best staff, but I don't know if they'll hit enough. Cardinals are probably going to be too hurt to win it, but if they get full seasons from all those old hitters all bets are off.