NY Times Article

[SirBruce]

Not as bad as what happened to FunCom with AO... they literrally LOST their subscriber data.  Deleted it all.  Everyone had to re-enter their billing information.

Bruce

[Merusk]

Microsoft Game Studios and Ensemble Studios today announced that the award-winning Age franchise has sold over 15 million copies worldwide. The Age titles, comprised of the Age of Empires and Age of Mythology series, have been consistently in NPD's top ten sales charts throughout the life of the franchise. According to NPD, Age of Mythology has been a top 10 best-selling PC game title for 26 consecutive weeks, 18 months after its initial ship date*. The latest Age release, Age of Mythology: The Titans expansion pack, will reduce its estimated retail price on May 12 to $19.95 (U.S.).

Let's be fair and divide 15 by 3. I know I bought AOE1, AOE2, and AOE2 expansion. Anyway, that's 5,000,000 gamers. Hell, cut that in half and you still have 2.5million. Point being. Lots.

And none of them had to pay a sub. fee.  That's why 1 mil is a significant milestone.  Just because you don't like the game that has the possiblity of doing it for the first time you're grasping at straws, trying to beat it down.

Or do we want to have the whole "PC gaming sucks and is dead because it doesn't achieve the sales of a single console game" conversation tangent here AGAIN.  Because 15 mil is an insigificant number for a game SERIES that's sold for the last 2 years when compared to console sales of similar-length popular series.

[Sky]

No shit.  Patch in some content now, motherbitches.

...the fuck?

If you've already seen all there is to do in WoW in the couple months since release, seek sunlight and the company of breathing human beings.

If you burned out because you were in the beta, quitcherbitchen. Your own fault.

The game's been out three months and you want content added already? Amazing.

[Righ]

Sadly schild, it sounds like you have sand in your vagina. One million MMOG boxes sold is fucking impressive. To say that it isn't because there are more than one million gamers or that another type of game has sold more is pathetic. When a rock artist packs half a million people into a giant stadium, it isn't reasonable to point out that another artist had higher album sales or that there are so many more music listeners in the world that half a million isn't significant. That kind of thinking is appropriate for a guy who sells me burgers.

[jpark]

Anyway, I'm still baffled by the fact that if they've passed EverQuest in terms of subscribers, or gone over 500K, why haven't they SAID that?

Because they can't keep enough servers up to validate it? No, I'm not joking.

If EQ has remained more or less intact with its sub base - would this mean a massive expansion in the genre?  Has anyone put numbers on this yet?

[El Gallo]

No shit.  Patch in some content now, motherbitches.

...the fuck?
If you've already seen all there is to do in WoW in the couple months since release, seek sunlight and the company of breathing human beings.
If you burned out because you were in the beta, quitcherbitchen. Your own fault.
The game's been out three months and you want content added already? Amazing.

I am level 58 after heavy (for me) play since release day, I know a fair number of people at the endgame (such as it is) already.  I played the beta and knew what to do.  There are a fuckton of level 60's already, and I can see the writing on the wall.  This game bragged over and over about the fast levelling curve, so you can stick "go get some sun" up Rob Pardo's ass.  Not all of us tried to solo grind EQ2 before coming to WoW anyway.  Right now, the message you get upon reaching level 60 in WoW might as well be "here be monsters."  I have no desire to advance anymore, and either don't log in or fuck around on alts most of the time.

The top end instances are an exercise in mind-numbing tedium, unless you gimp them with raid groups, in which case they are just exercises in triviality and shitty itemization.  You then graduate to raid content, which has promise.  But there is not much of it, and what exists  is bugged far, far beyond any reasonable standard and is also rife with shitty itemization.  Shit that Tigole swore up and down on a stack of Bibles would be fixed before release, not to mention all the super secret raid content they were holding back for live.  Just like SoE in the Luclin/Gates betas.  Fuck, they didn't even test the shit they did have ready, because they "dodn't want to spoil the suprise".  More likely, because it wasn't actually ready.  Just like SoE in the Luclin/Gates betas.  It's not even that new content isn't within sight, it's that current content bugged to oblivion with no fixes in sight.

They spent 3+ years making level 1-55 content.  And it's really, really great.  They spent about 3 hours on 55+ content.  And it really, really sucks.  Too bad every single inch of that well made content is already completely irrelevant to a significant portion of their playerbase, and will be irrelevant to a majority in fairly short order.  Yes, they have a couple months before half the population is experiencing the shittastic endgame that currently exists.  But they have shown no signs that give any reasonable person hope that two months will be enough.  Blizzard is slow as shit.

They obliterated EQ2 in the design phase.  But EQ2 is solidly whipping them in the live phase.  Luckily for WoW, it will take EQ2 at least a year of whipping WoW's live team to have an even remotely comparable game.  Hopefully they will get their ass in gear before then.

You make a game where you level to the cap in a week by logging in and hitting random keys, you damn well better have something worth doing at the cap.


disclaimer: the above is rife with hyperbole

[AcidCat]

As Gallo points out, there are definitely benefits to playing the game casually. The whole "race to the endgame" mentality is self-defeating ... yet players will still sit on their ass for days on end working the game like a job. I guess I just can't feel sorry for them when they run out of content.

[Toast]

My girlfriend's cat, Velcro, loves to eat. Sometimes, he wolfs down his bowl of food in a few minutes and cries later when he gets hungry again. Sometimes he eats it so fast that he vomits it back up. Man, cats sure are stupid.

There seems to be enough high end content to keep the majority of top end guilds busy. Most guilds haven't even attempted Onyxia, and most level 60's I know are happily farming away to gear up. They seem to be having fun helping guild members out with quests and dabbling in PvP. There's other stuff like battlegrounds coming out that should offer some options to level 60s.

[Trippy]

Anyway, I'm still baffled by the fact that if they've passed EverQuest in terms of subscribers, or gone over 500K, why haven't they SAID that?

My guess is that they've been waiting to see how many people actually subscribe after their free period is up before announcing subscriber numbers. When the original press release went out, most people, probably, were still on their free period.

[Toast]

Anyway, I'm still baffled by the fact that if they've passed EverQuest in terms of subscribers, or gone over 500K, why haven't they SAID that?

My guess is that they've been waiting to see how many people actually subscribe after their free period is up before announcing subscriber numbers. When the original press release went out, most people, probably, were still on their free period.

If I were Blizzard, I wouldn't want to define my success in relative terms to Everquest. The market has spoken in a big way, and WoW has gone way beyond what Everquest started.

[Der Helm]

Schild crying because WoW shrunk his e-penis is not newsworthy.

[SirBruce]

Anyway, I'm still baffled by the fact that if they've passed EverQuest in terms of subscribers, or gone over 500K, why haven't they SAID that?

Because they can't keep enough servers up to validate it? No, I'm not joking.

If EQ has remained more or less intact with its sub base - would this mean a massive expansion in the genre?  Has anyone put numbers on this yet?

Yeah, I've been working on it.  Let's ignore Asia for the moment, since while we know WoW is popular there we don't have data from all the other games to see if it's really impacted on them.  So let's concentrate primarily on NA/EU subscribers.  Let's assume, then, that WoW has 500K such subscribers; EQ2 we know has about 310K.  This is as of January.

At first blush, it would appear that the MMOG market grew by some 810,000 subscribers from October through January, which is about the same amount that EQ2 and WoW had added combined.  However, upon closer examination it is revealed that RuneScape also grew by some 60,000 subscribers during that same period.  So it seems that WoW and EQ2 have stolen at least 60K subscribers from other games like Ultima Online, Asheron’s Call 1 & 2, Horizons, and City of Heroes.  More importantly, it is not yet known how much subscribers for EverQuest 1 and Dark Age of Camelot have fallen, but the estimates I'm hearing put the number anywhere from 50K – 100K each.  So while it appears that EQ2 and WoW have grown the market, anywhere from 160K to 260K of their 810K+ combined were cannibalized from existing games, so that could be anywhere from 20% to perhaps 32%.  Maybe a little more if SWG and FFXI have also seen a drop.

So yes, it's been a massive expansion of the genre.  Mark Jacobs appears to have been right and I was wrong; a "good" game can still grow the market substantially.  However, I would note that cannibalizing 20% of existing subscribers is pretty significant, even if it is far less than I expected (I was predicting closer to 50%).  And I just can't imagine this trend continuing.  I suppose DDO has the potential to draw in lots of RPGers who don't do MMOGs yet, but are there really that many people out there willing to play, say, MEO or Tabula Rasa who *aren't* already playing World of Warcraft, if nothing else?

Bruce

[jpark]

So yes, it's been a massive expansion of the genre.  Mark Jacobs appears to have been right and I was wrong; a "good" game can still grow the market substantially.  However, I would note that cannibalizing 20% of existing subscribers is pretty significant, even if it is far less than I expected (I was predicting closer to 50%).  And I just can't imagine this trend continuing.  I suppose DDO has the potential to draw in lots of RPGers who don't do MMOGs yet, but are there really that many people out there willing to play, say, MEO or Tabula Rasa who *aren't* already playing World of Warcraft, if nothing else?

Bruce

Thanks for your comments Bruce.  That's great news for everyone interested in this industry.

If I can offer advice:  as an analyst never admit when your wrong.  In this case you say "I had placed conservative estimates on the upside of this industry going forward" :)

Sorry - "DDO"?

[Rasix]

Sorry - "DDO"?

Dungeons and Dragons Online

[Toast]

I'm a corporate financial analyst by trade...

To echo the advice above, we have a saying:
"Sometimes right. Sometimes wrong. Always certain.

It's really hard to work with so many uncertain facts. Making reasonable assumptions is critical. Also, when dealing with uncertain information, I like to use scenarios...Low, mid, and high. That way, the target can pick the numbers he find most credible without throwing out your analysis altogether.

[WayAbvPar]

Chairman, Non-Partisan Anti-Elven League

Heh- I  like it. Need a treasurer? How about a Sergeant-At-Arms?

[Signe]

Sorry - "DDO"?

Dungeons and Dragons Online

Which, evidently, is just about ready to go into beta.  I've met 2 people who claim to be in a teeny weeny bit of beta right now, but neither of them will talk about it.  Shame, really, because I've not yet signed an NDA with Atari for this beta.  I'm not even sure I'll be invited.  I think they're snubbing me because I ignored an invite for some weirdo beta involving big fighting machines ages ago.  I take these things very personal.  I wish I had ignored the Horizons one.  Of course, then I would never have met schild.  Allthough, I love him to death, it might have been worth the sacrafice considering what that game did to my brain.

Actually... I take that back.  He might become rich and famous someday.

(this post is brought to you by the word "beta")

[schild]

You have friends in the DDO beta? Mmmmmm, contests. Gimme a couple days. I have some phone calls to make.

[Signe]

Not really friend friends.  One is some guy who emailed me from the Atari betatesters and said he was in a very small group doing a wee little test or something.  I made a comment on another board and he pm'd me saying that he was in this beta, no one knows about it and he can't say anything because of the NDA.  I'm assuming he knows me from somewhere.  The other is someone from the Atari beta forums.  I emailed him about it and he just hinted that he's involved in "something".  It's the first I heard about any of it.  The Atari forums have been a bit more active lately and they seem to be getting close to betas for both DDO and Dragonshard. 

I don't much about Dragonshard but I'd like to fiddle with the DDO beta at some point.  Remember I'm a girl and entitled to free stuff!  So is SuperPopTart!  I'll try and finangle something.  The old Atari Admin guy has left and been replaced while I wasn't looking.  I don't know the new guy, but strangely his name is also Betatestadmin.  Weird, huh?

(did I just make up the word finangle?)

[WindupAtheist]

Schild crying because WoW shrunk his e-penis is not newsworthy.

SIGGED!

[Signe]

Schild crying because WoW shrunk his e-penis is not newsworthy.

SIGGED!

That's usually what I shout after my turn being on top.  Pwnd just sounds too l337.  If the phone rings I generally yell, "Diverged!"

[Riggswolfe]

For a non-Korean MMO 1 million subscribers is pretty impressive really.

As for DDO. I have moderate interest. I still wish it was in a more established gameworld than Eberron however.

[Jayce]

Schild crying because WoW shrunk his e-penis is not newsworthy.

SIGGED!

That's usually what I shout after my turn being on top.  Pwnd just sounds too l337.  If the phone rings I generally yell, "Diverged!"

TMI!

[Sunbury]

The company started developing World of Warcraft in 1999, and two years later Blizzard still employed fewer than 200 people.

1999?   Wasn't that the year EQ1 was released (Spring) and AC1 was released (November)?

I wonder if that date is correct, unless 'started developing' means, 'we had a guy start looking at this MMORPG thing'.

[SirBruce]

The company started developing World of Warcraft in 1999, and two years later Blizzard still employed fewer than 200 people.

1999?   Wasn't that the year EQ1 was released (Spring) and AC1 was released (November)?

I wonder if that date is correct, unless 'started developing' means, 'we had a guy start looking at this MMORPG thing'.

No, they actually started developing it in late 1999 (2000 would be more accurate), and first announced it in early 2001 at ECTS.

http://www.worldofwar.net/articles/ects2001/index.php

Bruce

[Sky]

However, upon closer examination it is revealed that RuneScape also grew by some 60,000 subscribers during that same period.

Don't know if I've mentioned this here, but Runescape is HUGE in public access computing. I had known about it for a while, but first saw it in a library up in Syracuse last spring. Now there are at least a dozen kids who come in to play every day, may have to ban it due to disruption of normal research usage.

Actually, my proposal was to start a pk guild run by my supervisor and myself. I'd run a nice pk mage named "Quiet Please" or something and every time they come in, I'd shoulder surf them, then run back into the staff area and log in, go where they were, and pk them. "Damn, dude, every time we go to the library that damned pk kills us!" But I think you need to subscribe ($$) to gain access to better features.

But I did actually propose that at a meeting. My supervisor understood what I was saying and actually thought about it (because it actually might curb the behaviour and be fun for us), but the batshitcrazy stares I got from the rest of the folks....priceless. "Well, I think we should kill them!"

[Litigator]

You people are positively deluded. I'm looking big scope at the whole industry with WoW as the prime (and obvious) example. I could care less which MMOG it is, if these people think 1,000,000 is the end all be all, they're barking up the wrong tree. They should be aiming for whatever the installed base of gamers is on a rig that can handle the game. Which I would guess is between 15 and 30 million (in North America and Europe, excluding Asia because of the pervasiveness of netcafes).

The installed base of all computers capable of running the game should be the target? That's insane, man.  First of all, monthly subscriber fees are not casual-gamer friendly, though WoW is more friendly to the non-hardcore in terms of game design than most other MMOGs. Second, a million seller is huge sales for any video game. A million sold in North America is a success for a big holiday title on the PS2.  Only 12 games in 2004 sold more than a million units across all platforms, including portables.

Total computer game sales were 45 million with revenues of 1.1 billion, which breaks down to an average price of $25, so those numbers include bargain games ($25 average price means 3 pieces of $20 software sold for every full priced $40 game).  My guess is that if you count only new software selling for full price, a pc game that sells a million copies is probably accounting singlehandedly for between 5 and 10 percent of the total full-price PC game sales for that year.  when you consider how many games came out this year, that's pretty good. And when you consider that those numbers are for a game that will continue generating huge revenues from subscriber fees, the scale of this accomplishment is pretty incredible. But hell, maybe Guild Wars will just wipe WoW off the map when it comes out. 

I still don't understand why you hate on this game so much. 

Numbers came from http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/050126/265772_1.html

[schild]

Keep calling it hate. I call it reality. Blizzard aimed low. They aimed at EQ2 and the rest of the EQ1 clones. They've won and Smedley admitted it, thus adding more validity to my claims. Take a look at the numbers - while one of the fastest selling - it will also be, in the long run, the worst selling of Blizzards big 3 franchises (starcraft, warcraft, and diablo).

If you're gonna drop $30M on a game's production, you gotta aim higher than the competition. You've gotta get at least two baby steps ahead to really outpace the rest of the market. The MMOG industry is cutthroat and full of vermin that will stop at nothing to win. Blizzard should have noticed that and taken that extra step.

Of course, it's all moot if they don't get Every Single Server Issue Fixed in the next month or so. Even though most diehard fanbois will eventually give up and just go back to EQ. The Blizzard fanbois will just go back to whatever Blizzard game they were playing, probably until Guild Wars is releasesd. There's no doubt in my mind that GW will be marketed just like a Blizzard game, and I'm sure at some point right before release, they'll make a public stab at Blizzard for using Bittorrent.

[Rasix]

If you're gonna drop $30M on a game's production, you gotta aim higher than the competition. You've gotta get at least two baby steps ahead to really outpace the rest of the market. The MMOG industry is cutthroat and full of vermin that will stop at nothing to win. Blizzard should have noticed that and taken that extra step.

Why? They won.  They made a fun MMORPG that sold more copies than any North American production house could dream of. Name one game that aimed higher than EQ and is now a success.  (I don't consider CoH aiming higher (nor DAoC)) Name one game that's aiming higher and will be a runaway commercial success.

You just seem to want to put down a game that's destroying everything on the market sales wise.  You're not making sense. It's a goddamn success financially and otherwise.  When it all falls down and goes boom, you can be right.  But for now, you're wrong and will be wrong for a while.

As for server issues, I haven't heard much on them lately.  How's lag in pvp land now?

[WindupAtheist]

But... but... it didn't sell as much as StarCraft!!!   

[Sky]

blah wow sucks gw mechajesus blah

So...we should expect you to start slagging on GW as a pile of crap around mid-May?

[El Gallo]

Reality?  Reality is about money, son.  You live in a reality where $30 million in development costs resulting in a projected $250 million in revenues over one year is a failure?  You are utterly insane.  Utterly.  That's 8:1 return on your money.  The only investment with that kind of return is bank robbery.  Sure, they have to put out money to keep the game going.  Still, a 4:1 return in one year is almost unheard of in the real grown-up world.  Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway is a phenomenal success.  He's the best investment mind of his generation.  Berkshire stock has increased by 60%.  Over FIVE years.  Want to stick to entertainment?  Wow's rate of return is better than the overwhelming majority of blockbuster films.  Let's look at a typical shitty movie that made a ton of money and is widely considered an amazing financial success: Spider Man 2.  It cost $200million to make and got $373 million in revenues.  http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0316654/business Utter failure that film was financially.  Just like every film in history is a financial failure, I guess. 

No fucking shit WoW will sell fewer copies than D2 or WC3 or SC.  How many dollars in monthly subscription fees did those games generate?  Hint: if you answered one dollar, you answered too high.

You want to compare WoW to the market of gaming computer owners?  First, you are insane.  If you ask the majority of gaming PC owners if they would pay a monthly fee for a video game, they will give you the same look as if you said "you know, Bin Laden was right."  But OK, let's run with the comparison.  You realize that the entire PC game industry sold only $1.1 billion in games in 2004?  http://biz.gamedaily.com/features.asp?article_id=8854 How does $250 million in one year stack up against that?  Pretty damn well, I'd say.  Huge failure there. 

Note that WoW sold ~380k copies its opening weekend in Europe.

They could lose every single subscriber tomorrow and this game would be a wild success.

edit: fixed typo/senior moment

[MrHat]

Note that WoW sold ~380 million copies its opening weekend in Europe.

Million?  Try Billion!

[schild]

380,000, right? If it sold 380Million I'll eat the cock of a monkey on live television.

[El Gallo]

Trillion actually. Typo/senior moment corrected.  Story is posted on this subforum now.