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Author Topic: They Shoot Horses, Don't They? F13's MMO Recap 2009  (Read 13602 times)
UnSub
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on: December 15, 2009, 02:38:07 AM

2008 was a year of death for the MMO genre. As economic conditions changed, a number of titles died or were cancelled. It was a tipping point - launching a MMO wasn't enough for it to be successful any more; instead you needed a strong basic offer and continued improvement to keep players subscribing and interested.

By comparison, 2009 was a year of pain. There were fewer dead MMOs (although some that died were still very notable) but that was because of the number that went out in 2008. Instead, 2009 was a year of layoffs, mergers and lawsuits.

Economic conditions saw less money for development outside of the big companies or big IPs and less tolerance for mistakes, meaning people were laid off and / or titles cancelled or put on hold - the biggest scalp to go was Mark Jacobs, then CEO of Mythic Entertainment and one of the original well-known modern MMO developers. More MMOs of all sizes continued to enter the market, further diluting the pool of players available to each title. Mergers saw big companies getting bigger through acquisition of development studios that might have some potential to make lots of money for them in the foreseeable future. Lawsuits sprung up around valuable IP licenses that could be used to create further MMOs. All were signs of the pain the MMO industry was going through as it faced both inward and outward challenges.

The major industry shift that occurred in 2009 was in how Western MMOs went after revenue: an increasing number of studios added in / launched with cash shops and microtransactions, while 'free-to-play' (F2P) became not quite the derogatory term that it had been. Some major titles launched as F2P while others converted (some successfully, some not). Although accountants like the simplicity of sub fee revenue, as competition increases it becomes harder to attract those 300 000 players needed to pay $15 a month to keep things profitable enough. Cash shops / microtransactions plus sub fees lets a title earn potentially more revenue per player than a pure sub model, making it more attractive to do, while a pure cash shop / microtransaction revenue model has also a good number of case studies that show they can be very successful.

It should be recognised that for all the complaints about F2P / microtransaction titles, these new and revised F2P games saw millions of players register. Someone out there isn't being turned off by the idea of maybe not paying a sub fee but instead spending a dollar or two on an outfit for their characters or some XP potions.

As for the MMOs launched in 2009, it could be argued that few lived up to expectations.  The hype levels for several titles reached fever pitch about how new and innovative these titles would be; what arrived were near-corpses propped up on chairs and made to look alive through a rope-and-pulley system in order to entertain an increasingly jaded and disinterested audience.

The prediction for 2010 is that the pain will continue. There will be more layoffs, cancellations and closures - there are too many MMOs arriving in the market while economic conditions are still uncertain (the video game industry might be recession tolerant, but investors aren't). More overhyped titles will arrive in the market and it is highly unlikely that any of the big name IP-based games are going to shake things up (Star Wars: The Old Republic really isn't going to, if it is a MMO at all and if it launches in 2010 it's out in 2011 anyway), while lower budget indie productions aren't going to have the appearance and marketing to draw in large numbers of players... and you need player numbers if you are going to make an impact. More titles will go F2P / cash shop / microtransaction over (or alongside) sub fees. World of Warcraft is still going to be market leader at the end of the year while Final Fantasy XIV, if launched, will be #2. Warhammer Online is pretty unlikely to see the other end of 2010 and it might even take Ultima Online with it if EA displays its usual subtlety and Mark Jacobs was right.

2010 will see a raft of allegedly MMOFPSs launch - Huxley, The Agency, Global Agenda, APB et al probably can't beta test forever - but all will struggle at getting PC players to pay box cost plus sub fees for what they can currently get for just a box cost (and then there is the PvP aspect of all of those games and how well that tends to go down when you are paying to play). Those that go F2P / microtrans still have to attract enough paying players to stay alive and that isn't going to be easy in such a saturated FPS gaming market.

Growth in browser-based / iPhone / Facebook MMOs and MMO-likes will continue since they have taken on board on of WoW's key strengths: make the game accessible to as many people as possible, not just those with cutting edge gaming rigs. It won't be widely talked about because unless it comes from a major publisher / has a notable IP, it won't be considered a "real" MMO... just like F2Ps weren't.  

The non-hype highlights of 2009 follow, month by month.

January:
Darkfall Online launches. Well, kinda - Adventurine announced a launch, then turned it into a stress test. The full launch was pushed back to February 25.

FusionFall launches - a free-to-play (F2P) MMO that leverages IP from the Cartoon Network and is aimed at kids.

Although North American and European servers came down on January 31, Hellgate: London continues operation and development in certain markets under HanbitSoft as a F2P title.

February:
EA announces layoffs that cut into Warhammer Online's development team. Only having 300 000 players when break even was set closer to 500 000 is likely a big reason behind these layoffs.

NCsoft makes cuts to its European division that finally remove any chance that it might have developed a MMO. NCsoft rests all of its Western hopes on a successful Aion release in September.

Jumpgate Evolution plans an official June release.

Darkfall finds out that launching is hard to do. Players who want to buy Darkfall also find this hard to do due to Adventurine limiting the number of keys available every day.

March:
Cheyenne Mountain Entertainment's Stargate Worlds manages to appear as the main sponsor of a racing car despite putting no money into the sponsorship. This was perfect, because they were also having issues paying their employees and their bills.

Another F2P, Runes of Magic, launches, claiming 700 000 registered players worldwide.

Gazillion Entertainment appears out of nowhere with a 10 year exclusive deal with Marvel to release its MMO property, four studios (including established NetDevil and established-yet-still-barren Slipgate Ironworks) and at least four MMOs - Lego Universe, Jumpgate Evolution, Marvel Super Hero Squad and Marvel Universe. The first MMO, Super Hero Squad, is due out in 2010.

April:
FusionFall announces it has 4 million registered players. No comment on how many of them are paying or still playing, but these are large numbers for a F2P title.

City of Heroes / Villains releases Issue 14, which contains a player generated content system.

Interplay and Bethseda start their legal dance over who gets the rights to release a Fallout MMO after Bethseda bought some rights to the Fallout IP in 2007. Interplay had tapped Masthead Studios to get to work on their Project V13 aka the Fallout MMO. Legal action kicked off in September.

Blizzard ends its arrangement with its Chinese distributor The9 and announces they've replaced them with NetEase.

Acclaim's Chronicles of Spellborn, a 'freemium' game with both sub fees and F2P aspects, launches.

April marked the launch of another important F2P title - Free Realms. This was SOE's first major title launch since Vanguard in January 07 and a huge shift in direction. F2P and aimed at kids is a long way from where an established, serious MMO publisher would consider a safe bet not too long ago.

May:
The bet paid off (at least in overall interest): Free Realms hits 1 million registered players in 18 days (and ends up with 5 million registered accounts by July). Little commentary exists on how many of those registered accounts hang on and how well they pay, but SOE continues to push on with Free Realms so it has to be paying the bills.

City of Heroes / Villains bans players for (surprise!) abusing its player generated content system.

Shadowbane, the original-play-to-crush-once-sub-fees-now-F2P, closes its servers.

The fallout from Tabula Rasa's end continues - Richard Garriott sues NCsoft for mischaracterising his dismissal, which had an impact on the value of his stock options.

Eurogamer reviews Darkfall, gives it 2/10. Darkfall devs throw down on the review, claiming the reviewer didn't spend long enough playing and that the reviewer was wrong for the game. Eurogamer says they'll do a re-review.

EVE reaches six years since release and 300000 active accounts - an incredibly impressive achievement for an indie MMO that launched with only 20000 active accounts.

June:
Sony Online Entertainment (SOE) appears pretty happy with the reaction that Station Cash (its microtransaction system) is receiving since implemented in Everquest and Everquest II by surprise in December 2008.

Jumpgate Evolution doesn't launch.

EA shows Mythic President Mark Jacobs the door - thus separating one of the most well-known MMO devs from the studio he founded - and kinda shuffle BioWare and Mythic together.

ZeniMax Media buys id Software.

Chronicles of Spellborn's original devs go bankrupt - the title is picked up by Frogster and goes full F2P.

WoW loses 6m in China players as the transition from The9 to NetEase is held up by lawsuits and Chinese authorities.

July:
Darkfall officially launches in North America, requiring current players to buy an American client if they wish to play on US servers. This coincides with Eurogamer's re-review that gives Darkfall 4/10.

An in-game bank executive in EVE steals ISK and converts it to real money - about $5800 Canadian.

After four years, SOE's The Matrix Online shuts down.

August:
Two senior people at NCsoft West - Jeff Strain and David Reid - depart at about the same time. This, together with the earlier replacement of Chris Chung by Jaeho Lee as NCsoft West CEO, sees the Western side of NCsoft undergoing some serious management shake-ups.

Turbine starts legal action against Atari over allegations of breached licensing agreements around Dungeons and Dragons Online.

Cheyenne Mountain Entertainment announces they've got new sources of funding, so Stargate Worlds is definitely continuing development.

Vogster's CrimeCraft launches with a box cost, subscription fee and cash shop.

September:
Three new MMOs launched in September: Aion, Champions Online and Fallen Earth. Aion sold nearly a 1m boxes but was filled with more bots than a Skynet reunion along with huge queues. Champions Online issued a launch day patch that heavily changed aspects of the game that people decided to buy the title on, while it took time to get the microtrans store working. Fallen Earth finally arrived after many, many years in development as an indie title, but probably found it hard to stand out in such a competitive launch month especially after changing its launch date several times.

Oh, and Hello Kitty Online launched in Europe (and other locations that weren't North America).

Dungeons and Dragons Online completes the transition from a subscription-based revenue model to a F2P one.

Activision Blizzard CEO Robert Kotick appears satisfied he's "take[n] all the fun out of making video games" and has a company culture of "skepticism, pessimism, and fear" because it's led to some very good profits. Having WoW probably didn't hurt either.

October:
Archlord is shut down in North American and Europe by Codemasters and re-launched by Webzen a few days later.

CrimeCraft goes F2P.

Gazillion's Slipgate Ironworks studio team is made smaller with layoffs. Other MMO studios also see layoffs, closures.

Cities XL - a city-building MMO - launches.

November:
Warhammer Online announces an unlimited free trial of one of their first content areas, no doubt in an attempt to attract some players back.

Cryptic Studio reveals that Star Trek Online is going to launch in February 2010 after an incredibly brief four month beta testing period.

How Mythic started the year is how Mythic ended the year: with more layoffs announced.

Blizzard softly enters the microtrans area with a cash shop where WoW players can buy in-game pets.

December:
The consumer side of Raph Koster's Metaplace announces its closure. It tried something different that didn't quite catch on, but making players pay for creating their own content is always going to be a challenge. At least it went out with dignity.

Alganon launches and attracts some attention for being very similar to WoW - but that was intentional.

Interplay wins the first stage of Betheseda's lawsuit against the Fallout MMO IP - a judge denied an injunction that would have halted work on Project V13.

Hasbro sues Atari over the Dungeons and Dragons license, claiming that Atari violated their agreement. This sees Atari being sued by both the licensor and licensee of the same IP.

Cheyenne Mountain Entertainment announces that Stargate Worlds is being backburnered to a degree and the main focus is on their newly announced multiplayer FPS title, Stargate: Resistance.

NCSoft's Dungeon Runners will shut down Jan 1, 2010. So it just squeaks out of 2009, but it counts here.

Near Death Studios announces that it is closing. Meridan 59, one of the original graphical MMOs, will continue to operate... somehow.
« Last Edit: January 20, 2010, 06:43:15 PM by UnSub »

Trippy
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Reply #1 on: January 20, 2010, 05:58:52 PM

Bumpage.

(Easier than fixing timstamp).
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Reply #2 on: January 20, 2010, 06:37:46 PM

Noted that SWOR has had a fairly official stamp of launch for 2011, not 2010.

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Reply #3 on: January 21, 2010, 01:46:56 PM

Thanks for another good round up UnSub.

I enjoyed the read.
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Reply #4 on: January 22, 2010, 04:37:50 PM

Interesting read. I'm not sure why you felt the need to throw in a dig at SWTOR since it's a year out and no one really knows how good or bad it will be but other than that it was entertaining.

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Reply #5 on: January 22, 2010, 10:37:31 PM

No mention of Farmville by name?  It's the current darling of the new wave of 'MMOs', with it's easy Facebook hook and casual appeal and probably the direct reason EA invested in PlayFish looking for the cheap easy money.  I think the MMO as we knew it is a dying breed and WoW will probably be the last wildly successful one to use the 'standalone .exe that you pay monthly for' model.

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Rasix
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Reply #6 on: January 22, 2010, 10:56:25 PM

No mention of Farmville by name?  

Fuck.

That.

Shit.

edit: I don't doubt we'll see a good game coming out of that new breed of "mmo" (I guess it's a MMO), but the current breed can rot.  I don't begrudge people making money hand over fist for them, they're just not even remotely interesting yet.

Anyhow, it looks like web games were out of the scope of the article.
« Last Edit: January 22, 2010, 10:59:53 PM by Rasix »

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Reply #7 on: January 22, 2010, 10:59:03 PM

No mention of Farmville by name? 

Fuck.

That.

Shit.

edit: I don't doubt we'll see a good game coming out of that new breed of "mmo" (I guess it's a MMO), but the current breed can rot.  I don't begrudge people making money hand over fist for them, they're just not even remotely interesting yet.
I apologize.
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Reply #8 on: January 22, 2010, 11:10:59 PM

I agree that Farmville and its ilk are not what I want to see or play, but those sorts of games are what will ultimately end up passing for MMOs in the west if they aren't WoW, while Koreans will wank en masse to whatever NCSoft shits out for them and China copies or appropriates (or farms gold in) everything that everyone puts out regardless of quality.

To be honest, I don't want to play MMOs at all.  WoW divorced me of the need or desire to play with randoms ever again and none of what's on the horizon looks like it'll get me to pay a sub fee again unless you count XBL.
« Last Edit: January 22, 2010, 11:33:18 PM by MisterNoisy »

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Reply #9 on: January 24, 2010, 09:05:12 PM

I pretty much disagree with majority of what you said in this article. We are not going to go toward microtransactions, it was tough sell before recession to get someone pay for anything when they didn't have to, it will be even tougher now. F2P claimed subscriptions is nothing but window dressing, numbers inflated to the point that it would make Enron accounting blush. Next step isn't F2P, microcraptactions or any other perversions of very simple subscription models. It is cutting out publisher and direct-to-download mmorpgs with no boxes, minimal initial costs and good old subscription fee.

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Reply #10 on: January 24, 2010, 09:17:36 PM

F2P games are similar to Facebook games in that they typically hype up meaningless stats like number of accounts and gross revenue over things that actually matter, namely net revenue.

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Reply #11 on: January 24, 2010, 10:32:42 PM

Good news Sinij, you're 1,000% wrong. You'd just be 100% wrong, but I figure I'll have to beat the wrongness out of your head 10x before you get it.

Quote
It is cutting out publisher and direct-to-download mmorpgs with no boxes, minimal initial costs and good old subscription fee.

That's already happened for most PC companies. Other than the subscription cost, because you're wrong.

Quote
F2P games are similar to Facebook games in that they typically hype up meaningless stats like number of accounts and gross revenue over things that actually matter, namely net revenue.

No one here actually knows where to look to find actual revenue for these companies, and even if they did, they'd have no idea of what to make of it. Please though, by all means, make assumptions. Also, every single one of these companies is private, they don't have to give you any information whatsoever. The stats for facebook and f2p games are easily found in most cases so it's the easiest thing to make public.
« Last Edit: January 24, 2010, 10:34:49 PM by schild »
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Reply #12 on: January 25, 2010, 02:58:01 PM

I agree that Farmville and its ilk are not what I want to see or play, but those sorts of games are what will ultimately end up passing for MMOs...

It already has... I don't think there's any MMO out there which can claim 75 million active monthly users.
At least according to this page: http://www.facebook.com/apps/application.php?id=102452128776.

Which near as i can tell is calculated by Facebook and not Zynga just pulling random numbers out of their ass.
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Reply #13 on: January 25, 2010, 04:57:47 PM

MAU is a terrible metric.

DAU is OK.

DAU/MAU is more important than both.

Really though, only Zynga has the real metric and MAU will ALWAYS be a hell of a lot higher and more impressive.

In other words, Facebook's numbers aren't out of their ass but they don't REALLY paint a full picture either.
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Reply #14 on: January 25, 2010, 05:12:36 PM

You can defend Facebook games all you want, but at this point they have as much franchise future as Mickey Mouse.

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Reply #15 on: January 25, 2010, 05:25:21 PM

You can defend Facebook games all you want, but at this point they have as much franchise future as Mickey Mouse.

If you think microtransactions and other non-sub models will be restricted to Facebook games then you're in for a shock.

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Reply #16 on: January 25, 2010, 06:23:28 PM

Sinij never knows what he's talking about, ever, so it's best to just leave him be.
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Reply #17 on: January 26, 2010, 11:01:43 AM

You can defend Facebook games all you want, but at this point they have as much franchise future as Mickey Mouse.

Last I looked Mickey mouse was kind of a big deal.

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Reply #18 on: January 26, 2010, 01:13:41 PM

Mickey Mouse has a relatively new TV show, if you are just talking about that one character.

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Reply #19 on: January 29, 2010, 01:40:14 PM

You can defend Facebook games all you want, but at this point they have as much franchise future as Mickey Mouse.

The, wuh? You'd have been better off saying something like Corbin Dallas or Neo or something we'll not likely see again. Mickey Mouse is the main force behind our ever-extending copyright expiries!

As to F2P, as has been said ad nauseum, it's either for games cheaper to make than iPhone apps or the pending swan song of a game that couldn't cut it with subs. It won't affect us really until they stop making big-budget subs-based MMOs.

Which as far as I can tell, should be in the next year or two.
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Reply #20 on: January 29, 2010, 02:07:23 PM

As to F2P, as has been said ad nauseum, it's either for games cheaper to make than iPhone apps or the pending swan song of a game that couldn't cut it with subs. It won't affect us really until they stop making big-budget subs-based MMOs.

Which as far as I can tell, should be in the next year or two.

I disagree with this assessment. Subs historically have been a good model when the market isn't too saturated. If everyone who wants to play an MMO is playing one of a small number of games, there's enough of the pie that everyone can do well from their share of that $15 a month. As the number of choices grows however and as gamers are faced with more choices and a more crowded release schedule, the old retention models don't really hold any more.

I think there will always be a market for AAA sub based MMOs but you'll see a lot more trying to compete in a more crowded market on convenience and low barriers to entry. Microtransactions, freemiums and other alternative revenue models are particularly good for that as they don't put a lot of hurdles in the way of a new player browsing for a new game to try - or for that matter an existing customer returning after leaving to play another game. It'll take a few breakout hits before Western gamers get past the somewhat snobbish attitudes to games that don't come in a $50 box and don't ask for a credit card up front but there will be more and more high quality games abandoning subscriptions coming down the pipe over the next few years. To write non-subs models off as only suitable for poor quality games is short sighted.

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Reply #21 on: January 29, 2010, 02:29:51 PM

I didn't write off non-subs models forever, just noting how they're viewed today. Someday when all the CP>Gaia kids grow up, they won't be expecting $100mil slot machines with particle effects. Whether that whole model can eventually become predictable and big enough to compel larger development budgets (ie, if Free Realms actually becomes a runaway hit), then I'll be happy to adapt as well.
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Reply #22 on: January 31, 2010, 06:00:11 AM

Interesting read. I'm not sure why you felt the need to throw in a dig at SWTOR since it's a year out and no one really knows how good or bad it will be but other than that it was entertaining.

The dig is because SWOR is the Next Big Thing coming to MMOs. it is going to redefine how we play MMOs forever, voice overs will bring a new level of immersion that will make players shed RL in favour of the Old Republic and merely inserting the disk into the drive of your platform of choice is going to convert it into a cold fusion reactor that will simultaneously end global warming and bring peace to all on Earth.

Based on the info that has been released, I think it is going to be one of the most highly instanced MMOs released to date and one that will involve other players outside of PvP or raid areas. You can't have any kind of immersion if contacts can talk (in VOs) to multiple players at once or have other players /em VaderNOOOOOOOO en masse in from of the Yoda-substitute who serves as the Light Side trainer. Personally, I like instancing in MMOs, but I'm open to the discussion of "how much of a game can be soloed before it becomes a massively singleplayer game?" discussion.

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Reply #23 on: January 31, 2010, 08:21:43 PM

It's not (I hope) the voiceovers that are supposed to make SWTOR special, it's that it's a multiplayer game that supposedly has the same sort of story focus as single player RPG's.  Yes, it'll probably have more instancing than I would like also, but that's a more than fair tradeoff for a multiplayer game with story like Dragon Age or Mass Effect.  If it does succeed in what it plans on, it very well may introduce a new type of MMO to be duplicated, though probably not particularly well.  As far as quibbling about whether it's an MMO or not, I don't see any indication that it'll be less of an MMO than other heavily instanced games like Star Trek Online.

*Insert all sorts of disclaimers about if it's done right, of course.  Despite all the 'bioware austin' doomsaying, I'm going to wait until it comes out to see whether they actually managed to do it well or not, and keep my opinion cautiously hopeful until then.
« Last Edit: January 31, 2010, 08:25:21 PM by Koyasha »

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Rishathra
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Reply #24 on: April 19, 2010, 12:25:25 AM

Edit: no more funny bot.
« Last Edit: April 20, 2010, 08:31:19 PM by Rishathra »

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Reply #25 on: April 20, 2010, 12:22:38 AM

I like the "cautiously optimistic" on a site subtitled "usefully cynical".
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