My God, Why Have You Forsaken Me?

[Big Gulp]

Dear Trial Player,

Welcome back to DDO! Your fellow trial players told us that they love the game, but were looking for more solo-only content. You spoke; we listened. Starting today, your trial account will be active until July 7th, 2006 so that you can try the latest addition to DDO - our all new SOLO PLAY.

Ready to return to Stormreach? It's simple. You don't even need to re-register. Simply log into the game as normal and your account will be active. Forget your password? Visit Turbine Account Management to reset your credentials. If you don’t have the game installed anymore you can download the client package from GameDaily.com or directly from Turbine’s servers.

We hope you enjoy your time in the new solo-player friendly Stormreach. Thanks for taking part in the trial program and for helping shape the future of DDO.

-Turbine Free Trial Team

Please hurry, they're about to shut off the lights on us!

[Arthur_Parker]

Yeah I got one of those.  The only way DDO is ending up on my pc again is if Angelina Jolie is sent round in tight fitting black leather with it on a DVD and I get to watch her play.  And all that's on the firm condition that the Mrs is out somewhere.

[pxib]

Dear Trial Player,

Welcome back to DDO! Your fellow trial players told us that they hate the game, and are looking for something more exciting. You spoke; we listened. Starting today, your trial account will be active until July 7th, 2006 so that you can try the latest addition to DDO - WATCH SOMEONE ELSE PLAY. We'll make a very convincing DMV appointment with your wife or girlfriend and, while she's out, Angelina Jolie will be on her way to your house to install the DDO client you thought you'd deleted for good.

Ready to watch Angelina Jolie in tight-fitting black leather? It's simple. You don't even need to re-register. Simply send us your address, phone number, and your wife's driver's license information. Angelina Jolie will set up your account, change your password, and smirk provocatively while showing off our new SOLO PLAY.

We hope you enjoy your time with Angelina Jolie. Thanks for suffering through the trial program and for helping shape what little remains of the future of DDO.

-Turbine Free Trial Team

[Broughden]

Please hurry, they're about to shut off the lights on us!

Good riddance?

[Arthur_Parker]

I started to track this and kept going as it's so easy to do.  The last couple of weeks have seen DDO forum account creations fall to the lowest levels so far.

First DDO user to register, thur 23rf Feb
Last DDO user to register, wed 02nd August

1st  Week = 11,133
2nd  Week =  3,384
3rd  Week =  2,496
4th  Week =  1,835

5th  Week =  1,263
6th  Week =  1,372
7th  Week =  1,016
8th  Week =    721

9th  Week =    713
10th Week =    660
11th Week =    656
12th Week =    607

13th Week =    554
14th Week =    413
15th Week =    468
16th Week =    632

17th Week =    417
18th Week =    543
19th Week =    350
20th Week =    661

21st Week =    531
22nd Week =   310
23rd Week =    283

Total 31018

Week 7 was the start of the free trial, with trial users able to create forum accounts.  Note, this is forum accounts not subscription numbers.

[stray]

I dabbled with a trial a few weeks ago. I'm a board junky, but even I didn't bother with making a forum account. Consider all the gamers out there who aren't board junkies (and there are many) who might have downloaded the trial.

Point being, message boards are pretty much useless to gauge anything.

[Big Gulp]

Point being, message boards are pretty much useless to gauge anything.

I wouldn't quite say useless.  Sure, you can't do a one to one correlation, but you can still make some inferences, and in this case they aren't good.  When absolutely any swinging dick can make make a forum account after week 7, and yet those numbers still consistently go down, you're in trouble.  Look at it like polling...  Are they often full of shit?  Yeah, but on the other hand they are useful for pointing out trends.

[Arthur_Parker]

I dabbled with a trial a few weeks ago. I'm a board junky, but even I didn't bother with making a forum account. Consider all the gamers out there who aren't board junkies (and there are many) who might have downloaded the trial.

Point being, message boards are pretty much useless to gauge anything.

In addition to what Big Gulp said.

IT doesn't matter what the percentage of new subscriber numbers to forum account creations is.  It could be 5%, 1% or 60%, it doesn't matter, because after week 7 it should be fairly constant.  The fact that forum account creations can be accurately tracked menas I know something good happened for DDO in week 16 and I know the DDO new person interest level of week 23 is roughtly half that of week 20.

I also know when the paid expansion is released, the numbers will sharply rise again.

[stray]

The fact that forum account creations can be accurately tracked menas I know something good happened for DDO in week 16 and I know the DDO new person interest level of week 23 is roughtly half that of week 20.

Week 16 could have very well introduced a nasty bug or design decision though. Enough to piss people off to finally register, bitch, and then quit.  :-D

One could just as much bend this data to say that less new forum accounts = a happier, 'too busy having fun' playerbase.

Just saying.

More than likely the game isn't doing all that well, of course, but I don't think one could tell what the trends are either way with just that info in hand.

[Arthur_Parker]

The fact that forum account creations can be accurately tracked menas I know something good happened for DDO in week 16 and I know the DDO new person interest level of week 23 is roughtly half that of week 20.

Week 16 could have very well introduced a nasty bug or design decision though. Enough to piss people off to finally register, bitch, and then quit.  :-D

One could just as much bend this data to say that less new forum accounts = a happier, 'too busy having fun' playerbase.

Just saying.

More than likely the game isn't doing all that well, of course, but I don't think one could tell what the trends are either way with just that info in hand.

I just checked, Week 16 went from Thursday 8th June to Wednesday 14th June.  On the 7th of June Turbine released details of solo play.  The major patch containing that and lots of other additions went live on the 14th of June.

DDO just had a major update, the Twilight Forge Module, if you glance at the most recent figures week 20 is pretty good and week 21 is fairly good.  Week 20 was Thursday 6th of July until Wednesday the 12th of July.  It's no surprise that the Twilight Forge Module was released on the 12th of July.

If someone wants to believe DDO players are all happy and the new players are creating fewer forum accounts, that's fine by me.

[stray]

If someone wants to believe DDO players are all happy and the new players are creating fewer forum accounts, that's fine by me.

I think the game is trash. I'm not believing that. I was just making a point about how unhelpful looking at forum registrations, on their own, can be to tell what the state of the game is week to week. You kind of just proved my point by including information about patches, modules, and solo play.

[Arthur_Parker]

Are you joking?  I have no clue what your point is.

[stray]

Huh? Why would I be joking? What would I be joking about exactly?

I'd love to know how you just read that post. It's pretty unfunny to my eyes.


The point is the same one I made in my first post. You overestimate the worth of message boards. That's all. Especially when you start dissecting how many newly registered users there are by the week, and saying what was a "good" period and what was "bad". Those newly registered users could mean anything. Some could be old players, finally posting to ask a question. Some could new subscribers. Some could be unhappy players. Some could be trolls just registering to post a pic of Tubgirl and "lol'ing" at Turbine.

[Rithrin]

Its definitely true that many people don't even sign up for the message boards until they have something to complain about. So if the number goes up, its just as possible that there was a really bad bug that week as much as there being a very good change. That's what Stray is trying to say. I know for Shadowbane I never signed up for the forum until one of my buildings bugged and I signed up to bug the devs about it.

[Arthur_Parker]

True or False?  The percentage of subscribers who register on an official message board is a fairly constant value.

If you don't believe that statement is true then all the "mights" & "coulds" in the world aren't going to help.

[stray]

Let me also clarify: Counting total forum registrations is helpful, in some kind of general sense. Especially when measuring against another game's boards. It's just when you start breaking it down week by week is when it gets iffy.

[EDIT] But whatever! Either way, I think we can all agree that DDO isn't pulling in the masses.

Though I do wonder how well (or bad) it's doing exactly. Like I said earlier, I played a trial account a few weeks ago. If I recall correctly, there were something like 10 servers. Not sure how populated each one was, but that doesn't seem any worse than CoH. So far...

[Arthur_Parker]

I'd agree DDO doesn't seem to be doing as bad as I would have suspected a few months ago.  The trend is downwards but they haven't been forced to merge servers as yet.

[Trippy]

I'd agree DDO doesn't seem to be doing as bad as I would have suspected a few months ago.  The trend is downwards but they haven't been forced to merge servers as yet.

Well if their press releases are to believed they still haven't cracked 100K subscribers yet since they are still saying "thousands of players from around the world". The chart which shall not be named also has them under 100K.

[pxib]

Yikes, not even "tens of thousands"?   

[Yegolev]

Someone want to skip over to Corp and see if they are still playing?  I seem to remember copius DDO-love over there.

[shiznitz]

Yikes, not even "tens of thousands"?   

Tens of thousands is hardly a subscription level one would crow about.

[Jayce]

Yikes, not even "tens of thousands"?   

Tens of thousands is hardly a subscription level one would crow about.

It's better than "tens of players!"... to which they may be headed.