f13.net

Let's get this shit show started (seriously how many teams are limping into this thing?):

AFC:

Byes: Kansas City, New England

Oakland at Houston

Miami at Pittsburgh

NFC:

Byes: Dallas, Atlanta

Detroit at Seattle

NYG at Green Bay

(Can I just tell you that the entire New England area is terrified at the prospect of playing the Giants in the Superbowl)

Predictions:

WC:

Oakland
Pittsburgh
Seattle
Green Bay

Wild Card Round:

Oakland (Tom Savage vs. Mike McGloin maybe? ick)
Pittsburgh (Miami's defense is terrible and Pittsburgh's offense is pretty good most days)
Seattle (Detroit is not going to be able to score against that defense outdoors in Seattle)
Green Bay (Yep, I'm a homer - I actually don't think they can beat that defense but who the fuck knows with Green Bay this year)

I feel like this game ends 7-0 with the score being a Khalil Mack pick 6.

I'd take the over on the number of pick sixes in the game being 2.

Houston
Seattle
Pittsburgh
NYG

Houston

Pittsburg

Detroit

Green Bay

uh... Houston?
Pitt
Seattle
Green Bay

Oakland - this would've been a great game with healthy QBs, meh
Pittsburgh - if they can show up on gameday ready to play
Seattle - Not in their house
GB - Hopefully lots of Eli face

Houston
Pittsburgh
Seattle
Green Bay

Definitely worried about the Seahawks. They don't look right.

Well, yeah, they're all broken. Ton of shitty injuries on all the teams this year.

Agreed, I'm interested in the faith people have in Houston.
If they do beat Oakland, the game against the Pats will be hilllllarious.

Houston over Oakland
Pittsburgh over Miami
Detroit over Seattle
Green Bay over NYG

Same

Houston
Pitt
Green Bay
Seattle

It's clearly the "who gets to get destroyed in round 2 bowl"

I only picked Houston because I think Brock is probably more capable than a third string rookie with half a game experience.

Yah I hear that on Brock vs. Cook. My arguments are as follows:

1. Brock is fucking horrible.
2. Houston plays in the AFC South
3. Oakland plays in the AFC West
4. Houston has one of the worst DVOA's (Football Outsider, look it up etc) for a playoff team ever (-21%)

Yes but... Brock is horrible and has a lot of film. Cook is a third string journeyman in the making, but no one has a clue how he plays. Seemed to serve Wentz up until the point defenses figured out his game. this might get Cook a win out of this game.

The only reason Houston is in the playoffs is because they are in the AFC South. And they still almost lost out of that to the goddamn Titans. Just as a team, they are demonstrably worse than the Raiders regardless of who is QB for Oakland. Their defense is good enough, however, to beat up on a 3rd string QB so it remains to be seen whether they can luck into a win or not. I still think the Raiders are a better team with a playoff experienced coach who can handle it better than the pile of mashed potatoes that is Bill O'Brien. Also, both Brock and Savage are just bad QB's.

Brandon Weeden is backing up Brock. Oh pleaseohpleaseohpleaseohplease let Brock get hurt.  :awesome_for_real: :awesome_for_real: :awesome_for_real:

Oh Dear God. It's like a yawning abyss of suck.

Oakland
Pittsburgh
Seattle (our kicker misses another PAT and field goal, guaranteed)
Green Bay

Yeah, Hauschka has the serious shanks this year.  Gone from being one of the best to a guy who may be lucky to hold onto his job next year.

Anyway:

Oakland
Pittsburgh
Seattle
GB

This is all true.

But Oakland seems to be in free-fall.

To me, game is a toss-up with teams going nowhere after this weekend.

But Houston has home-field advantage and the better QB (relatively speaking).

Houston
Pittsburgh
Green Bay
Seattle

Oakland
Pittsburgh
Detroit
Nu Yoik

Houston
Seattle
Pittsburgh
Green Bay

This Oakland/Houston game is utter shit. Jesus... I knew it would not be great, but holy fuck.

I didn't see the game (lucky me) but it must have been truly awful for a Brown's fan to proclaim it to be utter shit. :awesome_for_real:

Yeah, it was utter shit. The Raiders had nothing with this Cook twit as their QB and Osweiler had like one good drive. The rest was just fucking terrible. The Raiders receivers couldn't catch what passes came their way and most of the passes were so telegraphed by the QB that the Raiders corners just jumped the shit out of the routes. Also, it's 3rd down and 10, let's throw a bubble screen even though it hasn't worked the last 17 times I've tried it (and that was on both teams). I'm not sure McGloin would have done better for the Raiders (he was available supposedly) but he can't have done much worse.

As for Detroit, Stafford was fucking awful. He clearly can't throw shit accurately and yet I'm not sure the backup would have been any better. Also, despite only being down 4 points, they completely abandoned the running game in the second half again. The Detroit defensive line also just got utterly blown away by what I was led to believe was a shitty Seahawks O line. The score was close for much of the game but it never really looked like Detroit was going to be competitive.

It was the Lions. Our O line will show up for the next game, you watch.

Christ, that weekend sucked.  Were any of those games fun?

not in the least.

It was 6 bad teams and 2 kind of good teams playing some terrible football. I think I fell asleep at some point in every game.

I've long liked Eli at QB for the Giants, but he just can't do it with this offensive line. It's part him, part them. The guy can't move enough to survive without top tier blocking, and the Giants o-line this year has been AT BEST mediocre and often outright terrible. The Giants got a good defense for the money they paid, but without an offensive line worth a damn, they don't have long term prospects - and Eli is on his way out.

The giants went 11-5 scoring under 20 points per game this year. Their defense helped them win the close games this year, but you've got to put the ball in the endzone a lot more often. You've got talented receivers, but that doesn't count for enough if Eli can't get them the ball.

Eli is not good enough to win with no running game and no offensive line. He just throws too many bad passes when under pressure. That said, his receivers let him down today. Odell Beckham Jr. just laid a huge egg - 3 drops and what he did catch was a few nothing balls. When your whole game plan is centered around getting him the ball, he's got to play better than that. Especially when you consider HOW FUCKING BAD the entire set of trash heap street free agents the Packers' cornerbacks are. They are terrible.

Also, I've come to realize that Aaron Rodgers and that amazing O line is the only reason Mike McCarthy is so successful. McCarthy's entire game plan seems to be street football scramble drills. Nobody should be able to block good defensive lines for as long as the Packers are able to, and if that ever breaks down, Aaron Rodgers is going to get killed. They need to keep doing the quick hitting slants and 3-step drop passing game to really be effective but I'm sure they'll spend the 1st quarter of the Cowboys game doing the same ineffective shit they did this 1st quarter.

Miami's defense is trash. The Steelers offense is insane. Also, that guy Dupree? He should have been ejected for that hit on Matt Moore. Until the NFL starts tossing guys for clear targeting hits like that, they will never be able to be taken seriously when they say they are for "player safety." Because that was some goddamn bullshit.

Jets, Jaguars, Bengals (or Browns), Titans, Texans and Chargers.

Name 6 teams you'd cut from the NFL to hopefully improve the product on the field. Holy fuck that was bad.

This weekend's games (outside of the Pats-Texans) actually look pretty good though I'll admit.

Fiancee: "The Giants...is that the team with two players? The guy with the face?" In her estimate, the Giants = Eli and OB. The defense did show up for a while until they got run down. At least they made a game of it before getting crushed, so my MVP of Wild Card weekend goes to the Giant's D for at least making a relatively entertaining half.

I had the Steelers game on while drawing and  :why_so_serious: AB insta score back to back  :why_so_serious:

I am honestly shocked that Eli couldn't exploit the GB secondary. Cruz and Beck and a suspect secondary should have been lights out. Not to mention that first half where Rodgers had 5-8 seconds in the pocket to throw with the G-men's DL? Wow... Good on GB's OL but I have to say, usually if a QB has 8 seconds to dick around before tossing it, there is some holding going on somewhere. I could argue a few of those long pockets there was, but overall the Giants just didn't get it done. Great OL play and having Rodgers without Nelson in the second half, kudos.

So now we have what?

GB @ Dallas
Pitt @ KC
Houston @ NE
SEA @ Atlanta


I'm taking:

Cowboys
Steelers (/wrists)
NE
ATL

Yeah, I'm afraid I agree with you.

Cowboys
Steelers
NE
ATL

Yep, I'm on board with that, too. And I have an irrational dislike of Atlanta.

Dallas
Pitts
NE
Atlanta

I would enjoy a Pats/Cowboys bowl. Either our boys win or the rookie dream team gets a storybook ending to their season.

Green Bay over Dallas
Pittsburgh over Kansas City
New England over Houston
Seattle over Atlanta

Yes, picking 3 out of 4 road teams.

Dallas
Pittsburgh
New England
Atlanta

New England
Dallas
Seattle (I don't trust Atlanta)
Pittsburgh

New England
Green Bay
Seattle
KC

Going against the grain here, mainly because how fucking smart will I look if I am actually right?

New England
Dallas
Atlanta
KC

Pittsburgh's gonna have a reverse week from last one mostly because their special teams suck right now (you just know Hill is gonna run at least one return in), Ben is shaky on the road anyway and now has an ankle to worry about. Can't run as much again when you're down.

Odell Beckham has and will continued to be incredibly overrated by the media because he made a great 1-handed catch. He gets more targets than any receiver in the league next to Mike Evans, and yet he's 35th in average catch yards. And he's 5th in TDs.

People put him up as one of the best receivers in the league. I think he's not good enough to carry Julio Jones' jockstrap.

I see what you're saying, but being 5th in TDs is nothing to sneeze at.

Green Bay
Pitt
New England
and....   ..... .....  Atlanta

To be fair to ODB, the offense he is playing on is really not conducive to average catch yards, as they throw a shitton of high percentage, low yardage throws. Also, Ben MacAdoo has never met a fade route he didn't want to marry once he reaches the red zone. The Giants were awful in the red zone because they have no running game or offensive line. He was targeted 169 times, made 101 receptions and only had 6 drops (which does put him 9th highest in drops this season). By comparison, Julio Jones had 129 targets, 83 receptions and only 3 drops.

No, ODB is no Julio Jones but there's not really many players who are. He's still the best offensive player on the Giants, hands down.

While I agree, it's partly because the Giants have ZERO running game in the red zone. They had 6 rushing TDs all year. That's crazy. Meanwhile they just were tossing it around in the red zone and going to either OBJ or Sterling Shepard.

And because of that they were 26th in points in the league. Their offense was awful. Like worse than Jacksonville awful. And OBJ is touted as the best in the league WR which is freaking laughable. He's a good receiver, but hardly the best. He just gets tons of action because the Giants have limited options.

Atlanta
Dallas
Pitt
NE

On a better offense, OBJ is one of the best receivers in the league. The league is full of guys with big numbers that are not that good because it is a passing league.

DAL vs ATL. Is the over 100?

Wow.

^^this

That was pretty great. Cook's catch was amazeballs.

FUCK YOU, JERRY JONES!!!!!!  :awesome_for_real: :awesome_for_real: :awesome_for_real: :awesome_for_real: :awesome_for_real: :awesome_for_real: :awesome_for_real:

Also, the refs in that GB/Dallas game were fucking awful. They either lack a basic understanding of defensive holding and pass interference, or just didn't care.

Bleh, is there a worse choice than having to choose between the Patriots and the Steelers?

The Patriots and the Yankees?

Just root for the Packers.  :drill:

Falcons aren't aggressively loathsome either, so NFC it is I guess.

When did the Steelers become bad guys, anyway?  Asking as a fan.

Honestly? Pretty much always. The whole Rapeslethsburger thing didn't help.

Well, I've learned the fiancee is the nasty competitive one. During the Pack/Cowboys game I was ok with either winning (slightly favoring the Cowboys because it's been fun watching the 2 rookies dominate). She went into full Packer fan mode, it was actually kinda ugly.

Pretty happy about the Steelers win because my boss is a huge Steelers fan and said she was rooting for them to lose so they wouldn't have to lose against the Patriots next week. So if they win, it's a great week at work and if they lose, I get to bust her chops for a year. Win/win!

Outside of already being a fan there is no reason a fan should NOT be supporting the Falcons now. The Pats, Steelers and Green Bay? Fuuuuuuuck that (and I'm a Pats fan).

Over/Under on GB - ATL opened at like 60 the highest ever for a playoff (or maybe championship) game.

Looking forward to Pats/Steelers. Big Ben vs Brady. They haven't matched up in the playoffs since 2004 (when Ben was a rookie) so Pittsburgh can say they earned it if they can get through to the SB. Pats will need to play way better than they did vs Houston but I think should win. Rodgers vs Brady in the SB would also be awesome.

Interesting that the offenses are winning over the defenses this year. Pats have the best defense left however they haven't played a decent QB since a loss vs Seattle.
Predictions:

Pats
Atl

Pats to win SB, 34-24.

Yeah, Pats to win. Although there's still time for Brady to get hit by a dildo truck and die choking on a rubber cock.

Fuck it all...


Pittsburgh over NE
Atlanta over Green Bay

because betting against GB is the easiest way to get them to the SB

My faith in the Green Bay defense is shaky but I'm going out on a limb here and saying A-A-Ron can save us.  :why_so_serious:

GB
Pats

Super Bowl Winner - GREEN BAY MOTHERFUCKERS

As long as I'm going homer, I may as well go all the way. It's the matchup I want to see.

Also, you should hate Atlanta because it's asshole owner is bilking taxpayers out of money just to get his giant robot spinchter stadium built only 20 years after his perfectly acceptable Georgia Dome was built. Fuck Arthur Blank.

Yeah seriously. That suspect secondary hasn't really had as big an effect as I thought when this dance started. Crazy days to a shitty season.

Green Bay
New England

Good article on  how the defenses left kinda suck  (https://theringer.com/nfl-playoffs-defense-falcons-steelers-patriots-packers-5f71ab40f70c#.tu9uqt4p3) but the offenses are damn good. Pats haven't played a good quarterback, but the Steelers really haven't either, unless you count Eli Manning? Green Bay and Atlanta's defenses are bad but it hasn't matter cause they score so many points. Who the fuck knows. Should be fun.

Green Bay
New England

See if I stay perfect. I think Atlanta is better overall, but A-Aron has been inhuman.

Falcons have proven me wrong all year so why not keep the train rolling.

Dallas played such a shit first half that even catching up wasn't enough. I think if they learned how to substitute correctly Rodgers probably doesn't kill them by taking advantage of the dumbass penalties. Either way we deserved to lose and we did. The Cowboys looked piss poor for a half and you can't spot a good QB that much. Plus not getting in the end zone late was stupid. Another good season pissed away in the playoffs, so fuck Jerry just because.

I like the Falcons over Green Bay
I like the Pats over Pitt.

ATL-NE in the Super Bowl and NE probably beats the ever-loving fuck out of Atlanta because their defense is a bigger Achilles heel than anybody in the playoffs.

No. 1 D vs No. 1 O.

Could be interesting. Just not surprised GB lost, after all the Rodgers fellatio that went on this week, it felt like it was going to go that way. Can't stay lucky forever.

Pats, as usual, stomped the Steelers. Nothing unusual there. Chris Hogan! Let your Pats hate flow rest of the country.

Rodgers should learn to play defensive back too. There's a real need there.  :why_so_serious:

Seriously, though, I couldn't even watch most of the game. I started falling asleep in the 2nd quarter and when I woke up it was 24-0 at the half and I thought, "Well this is going about as bad as I could have feared." When Julio Jones basically just Playstation 2'ed the fuck out of 2 defenders who should have either 1) covered him or 2) been able to tackle him, I just started fast-forwarding the Tivo. Fuck watching that shit show. Rodgers has carried that team all year but he couldn't carry them against one of the best offenses in the league this year. I so want Dom Capers fired and every cornerback on our team pounding pavement.

Atlanta 43 - NE 37

I'm in for Atlanta as well.

ATL > NE

Fiancee is pissed because I called Atlanta to win the superbowl at halftime during their game.

Ryan is going to pick apart their defense and I don't see them continuing to get Hogan wide open like they have been. Bennett is hurt, so their TE plays are off the table, and Blount hasn't been producing much. Amendola has been oddly quiet. Edelman and Lewis won't be able to carry the team when they need to put up numbers like they will to keep up with Atlanta.

The Patriot Defense is for real, but it's going to be a shootout.  37-34 will be the  final score.

The Pats put up 30+ points on the 7th and 11th rated defense (by DVOA) in the league. (Actually it was only 27 vs Houston, 1 TD was a KR). By most measures Atlanta's defense is worse than both those offenses. Seattle were banged up, missing key defensive players and basically all of their offensive line (ohoho Richard Sherman was hurt and not disclosed on the injury report? Where's the outcry, but they will probably lose a decently high draft pick over that). GB was missing half their receiving corp and had a bunch of injuries and their defense was pretty bad too (plus Dom Capers..hehheh).

Still that offense is scary, I just think that NE defense will keep them out of the endzone a few times and Brady will probably shred the ATL secondary. Can ATL get pressure with 4 rushers is the question.

Sticking with my 34-24 NE win prediction.

40-27 NE

That Atlanta defense is not as good as they think they are. It's probably closer to Pittsburgh's defense. Plus, it's Atlanta and I'm sure they will fuck it up somewhere.

It's a bad defense. It's a REALLY bad defense and I've watched it all year. It kept teams in games when they had no business being in the game. If Seattle could offensively find it's ass with both hands, Atlanta wouldn't have gotten out of round 1, but Seattle gift-wrapped them one of the dumbest safeties I've ever seen, and then gave the ball right back to them for an easy TD. From there, I don't think the Seahawks converted a 3rd down that mattered. In fact the only TD they had after the safety was a kickoff return.

NE won't do that. They are too measured and too good to go completely ice-cold, and they are too well coached given 2 weeks to get fooled by Atlanta's Shannyshow and have wide open guys roaming around. Atlanta's defense looks great over the last two games because they started playing with double digit leads and could just rush the passer, ignoring the run. NE will never give up the run, and I don't think they've been down by 10 points at any point since Brady came back. Could be wrong on that, but they've lost only one game.

If I'm NE I pull the Philadelphia gamefilm against the Falcons and mirror that. Ball control offensive drives that grind down the Atlanta defense. Keep the ball away from Matt Ryan and gamble on 3rd down. Sell out against the Atlanta run and make them one-dimensional so they have to pass to convert everything. But most importantly, control the block. Have 5-6 minute drives. That's how you stop them, since Atlanta is all about getting into a rhythm and gashing you deep.

Are we not doing phrasing anymore?  :grin:

Patriots in 5

I've laid the points so I've got Patriots -3

Fuck the Patriots. That is all.

Worst season I can remember... and we have this as our reward. Go Tribe!

Doesn't look good for the Pats.  Atl O maybe unstoppable.

Amnnnnd game over

The playoffs (with the exception of the GB/Dallas game) have been horrible this year.

Going to bed because this game isn't particularly interesting to watch.

Full credit to the Falcon's D for playing a great game though.

Evony commercial in the Super Bowl. Fucking Evony.

And WOT and Mobile Strike. The fact is these rat games are making shitloads so of course they're going to drop in. Makes it easier when companies like Toyota Doritos and such decide not to do ads.

and somehow the Pats are making this interesting. fuck me I just wanna go play computer games.

And if the Pats lose by one point the incorrect call on the blocked PAT from ATL's first TD is going to be a big talking point tmw.

annnnnd we are tied

Called this in the first quarter when my wife said Atlanta was running all over them.  I recall the last few times we thought the Pats were dead then Brady sacrificed another puppy at halftime and for the 4th quarter comeback.

What a collapse. The whole world continues to be garbage.

holy
fuck

Falcons gonna Falcon.

Delicious.

Dude.  Tom fucking Brady.   :drill:

He should be a man and retire, Elway style.

I went to sleep at the end of the 3rd. A friend called me and woke me up with 1:05 in the 4th. Watched until the end. I have no idea what I missed; what an unreal change of events

God is dead.

No he isn't, he just hates the rest of America. ;)

This. Fuck this NFL season, I'm glad it's finally fucking dead.

Apparently my instinct that Atlanta was just not to be trusted was right.

I wasn't sure he had it in him this time, from so deep in the hole. But I also figured Atlanta would score twice in the second half, and they almost did.

First season the fiancee watched football with me, and she's a Pats fan (from watching a game when we were in NE a couple years ago). So she was super emotional, and I'm happy her first season as a fan had a good ending. On the other hand, she's totally spoiled now.

Yeah if any of you are still clinging to the concept of a loving and omnipotent sky friend, I refer you to the past 3 or 4 months.

I'm a Pats fan but the Falcons lost that game because of horrendous clock management.

As Mike Lombardi says on Simmons podcast, in the 4th quarter the Falcons opponent wasn't the Patriots, it was the clock. Simmons makes the comment that at one point the Falcons snap the ball with 22 SECONDS ON THE PLAY CLOCK.

Freeman had 71 rushing yards in the 1st half, he finished the game with 74.

At 2:06 left in the third quarter, with the Falcons leading 28 - 9, they would only call FOUR running plays. FOUR.

At 3:56 of the 4th quarter, on the NE 23 yard line, 2nd and 11 (and up by 8 points) instead of calling an inside run, Matt Ryan drops back to pass and is sacked for a loss of 12 yards. This is the play that lost the superbowl for the Falcons. Quinn/Shanahan had their Mike Martz/Pete Carroll on the goal line moment. You fucking morons. But thanks!


Oh and the Matt Ryan strip sack came on a 3rd and 1, so instead of a run, or a quick pass or a QB sneak they called a traditional 7 step drop. MOOOOROOOONNNS. Enjoy Shanahan 49ers fans.

Yeah, I thought it odd they just stopped running the ball, but being that I'm no football fan and never even played more than a touch game I just shrugged it off. I didn't realize they kept snapping with so much time on the play clock, though. Wow.

Oh the Falcons definitely blew that game, in multiple ways. Mostly by just shitting the bed on offense in the second half. It was like they didn't adjust to anything the Pats defense was doing after halftime, when Belicheck most certainly changed what the Pats were doing. That 3rd and 1 was particularly stupid - there was no reason to go 4 wide on that play, not really much reason to pass the ball at all. Hell, go 4 wide and do a QB sneak. If you don't get it, you've at least run 30-60 more seconds off the clock and can punt the ball deep into the Pats side of the field. TBF to the Falcons, they did try running a little bit in the 2nd half and mostly got stuffed. However, it looks like that just made them give up on it completely.

That meant that they kept giving Brady the ball back after 3 and outs, and their defense just got gassed by the end.

EDIT: Also, it appears the Pats receivers remembered how to catch passes in the 2nd half. They had a TON of drops in the first half that caused their offense to sputter.

Lots of disappointment this morning... not so much because the Falcons lost, but because the reality of Brady being that good in that system just vaulted him into legendary status above the others. People here in Pittsburgh are having a hard time with that... at least the ones who hate the Pats.

I really didn't care who won... slight edge to the Falcons since they've never won one, but either result was ok in my book. What we really got was a pretty great Super Bowl game and I appreciate that.

and this is the first time in a really long time that I haven't heard a word about the commercials from anyone around the office or, frankly, anywhere. Outside of YouTube's silly shit and a thread on reddit, no one seemed to care or even pay attention to them outside of the Budweiser immigration one...

The ads were awful. I can't believe this is the best America's ad agencies can come up with.


The other crazy stat from the game, Pats ran 93 plays, ATL 46, biggest gap in NFL history (or at least playoffs). A bunch of other stupid stats to go along with that. No fucking wonder their defense was gassed at the end.

Yeah, the time of possession was also really one-sided.  I think the Pats got 17 more minutes than the Falcons.  Granted, some of that was Overtime, but not that much.  That makes the teams' respective defensive performance at the end of the game make a lot of sense.  The Pats also had 37 first downs versus the Falcons' 17.  Looking at just the stats you'd never know the game was as close as it was.

If you think about it, it was really 2 halves of 2 different blowout games that happened to involve the same teams mashed together.

This was the first time people in Canada were allowed to watch the US Super Bowl commercials during the actual game.  In the past (and possibly again in the future) we had to watch the same shitty ass Canadian commercials we see everyday, even on US channels.  I want to see what a $5 million commercial looks like during the game instead of another Tim Horton's or Canadian Tire one.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/super-bowl-ratings-canada-1.3969788

But Canadian Tire is so much more than just tires!

I watched a Canadian stream online a couple years ago and I seem to recall seeing a lot of adds for Canadian potatoes.

I warned yall the Falcons defense was shit. Been saying that all year, the only difference is they usually score 30+ to make up for it, and the two other teams they played in the playoffs were laughably one-dimensional. They lost to fucking Philly for heavens sake.

Anyway, they shit the bed because Atlanta can't have nice things, and I covered my bet so I laughed all the way to the bank. Better luck next year you no-need-stadium-building-asses.

IDK, man. As Shannow pointed out the Patriots offense had almost 2x as many plays as Atlanta's. That's going to wear-out a defense. The Offense did a shitty job of clock management and play management. The team fell apart in the 2nd half while the Patriots did their usual, "Lets see what they've got and determine how many points we need in the 2nd half" strategy. 

vOv

Yeah, they got gassed. The D line was pretty brutal for 3/4 of the game, and the secondary had Brady making poor decisions the entire first half. I'd put more of it on the coaching staff.

Atlanta fired their defensive coordinator. Yeahhhhhh cause it was his fault. Keeping the Pats to 3 points in a half and 9 in 3 quarters with a bunch of rookies was fucking good. It was NOT the D's fault they gave up 19 points in the 4Q, anyone's defense would've. What's truly ironic about that is Quinn was Seattle's defensive coordinator in '14 when they gave up 28 points to the Pats in SB 49. That team is doomed.

The Falcons defense was shit (though not as shit as last year - they actually had a pass rush this year). However, while they did SOME good things in the first half, Brady's receivers dropped a FUCKTON of balls during that span. That was a huge difference between halves - in the second half, the Pats weren't dropping the balls they were in the first half. The game probably wouldn't have been close if just 3 or 4 passes in the first half weren't dropped. Brady clearly wasn't himself in the first half either, as some of those balls were thrown off target as well as being dropped. The pick 6 in the first half was just a really good play.

Take away the pick 6 and Atlanta only scored 21 points on offense, meaning the Pats defense actually did what you'd want them to - it limited Atlanta to a lower than average performance overall.

Atlanta's defense was giving up 25.4 a game in the regular season. That was 27th in the league. If they'd won, they would have been the team that gave up the most points in the regular season to win a Super Bowl since 2000, and probably of all time.

It caught up with them. Yes, they went hurry up and fucked up the clock. They'd done that all year and it worked for them. That's why they didn't think about slowing down and changing tempo late, because they'd been used to giving up garbage time TDs and making one play that would win them the game. It happened with the Saints, Panthers, and Broncos in the regular season. All games they had rather sizable leads and let teams get within one score in the 4th quarter before pulling away.

The joke around here was that no lead was TRULY safe and that the Falcons always made it interesting. They just got burned because the defense has never been able to hold up for the 60 minute distance all year and this time the offense didn't make the 1-2 plays to seal it. But I don't necessarily blame the offense or the clock management for that either. You can't as a defense get a 4th down stop in the 3rd quarter? You can't get a 3rd and 8 stop on a Tom Brady scramble? You can't slow down a team enough that starting from their own 9 yard line they gas you for a TD in 2 minutes? That's shitty defense. That's no depth. That's not being able to go a full 60 minutes, and while I realize the offense stalled you literally just had to make one stop anywhere in the last 20 minutes of the game and it's over. Anywhere. Or in OT.

The second the Pats started catching passes (something they didn't do in the first half) the defense magically got worse. It was bad in the first half, but the Pats just didn't execute. That game shouldn't have been close except the Pats kept fucking up the entire first half with bad passes and that pick 6. If they score the other way instead of that 14 point swing? I think the Falcons get blown the fuck out in the second half and lose by 14+.

Not making excuses for those two big dropped balls in the first half. I was pretty sure those and the pick six sealed the fate of the Pats. I do blame the offense, because in my breakdown of how the Pats were not going to be able to dig out of a hole, even with their offense getting their shit together, it was predicated on the Falcons scoring a couple TDs (or at the very least stringing together a bunch of FGs) in the second half. I think it was a combo of the Pats D not being on the field much in the second half and the offense straight-up got outcoached by the Patricia half-time adjustments (which is a Patriots trademark, really; I'm not unconvinced they all go fellate leprechauns at halftime).

But I stand by my feelings about the D. They were pressuring Brady and one of those drops was contested anyway. And the big Edelman catch was a total fluke because the D was all over him at the time. They played a hell of a game but I'm not sure any defense can spend that much time on the field against a good offense and not eventually gas out and crumble.

Shanahan just abandoning the run in the second half completely as well as going no huddle and not milking the clock at the line contributed greatly to the Atlanta defense being totally gassed.

He didn't abandon the run though. First series in the second half they ran on 1st down and lost 3 yards. At 2nd and 13, I think you're an idiot if you run there ball there. Passed twice, didn't convert, went 1 out of 3 running plays.

Second series they run the ball 4 out of 9 plays and get a TD. This makes it 28-3.

Third series onside kick. Atlanta throws for 9 yards has a second and 1. Runs the ball and gets a fucking holding call. Now it's 2nd and 11. Again, running the ball at that point is insane. What should really be highlighted is that holding call knocked them out of teh FG range and that's all on Jake Matthews being a complete idiot. They can't convert and have to punt. If they just don't commit a moron penalty they are likely kicking a FG in the 3rd quarter that ices the game. 1 of 4 plays was running.

Fourth series it's two runnning plays in a row that puts them 3rd and 1. They just got stuffed on 2nd and 2. Matt drops back and Devonta does the worst whiff on a pass rusher I've ever seen in a pro game. Sack fumble. 2 of 3 plays running.

Fifth series, now you're 6 minutes left and you need to burn some clock. But you have to get first downs to do that. They do a 39 yard screen, and a deep shot to Julio for 22 yards. The game is now over if you run 3 times. They run once for a loss of -1. This is absolutely where Shanahan lost his fucking mind and decided to start passing thinking they needed the first down. On 2nd and 11 normally yes you pass, but in this scenario you didn't need the first down. The clock was low enough you could take a knee and just kick the FG and win the game. But they pass instead, take a sack, and then the killer was the holding penalty again from Jake Matthews on a 7 yard screen pass that would have put them BACK in FG range. They ran 2 plays in 7 of that drive.

10 running, 16 passing. In today's league I don't think it's THAT far out of whack, except for the last series where you just didn't need to do anything but run.

Also I can make a strong case that Jake Matthew's dumb ass lost the game with penalties.

Just going on the record in case I haven't, I fucking hate onside kicks. Such a low percentage play that some teams seem to go for way too early in the game.

Outside of situations like this game, I also dislike 2pt conversions in the 1st 3 quarters. Also going for it on 4th down unless your offense is rolling and it's only inches (or 4th quarter comeback drives, same as 2pt conversions).

And yeah: getting knocked out of FG range at the end was the real killer there.

You'd be wrong on the 4th down thing. The Patriots have been one of the most aggressive teams on 4th down for years and it has worked out well for them. The real issue is field position. If you are in the other teams half the question becomes is it worth punting for 10-20 yards of field position or settling for a field goal. Or when you are down 3 TDs teams settling for FG's (Why the fuck NOT go for it). I'll take a guess that the better teams in the league are the ones more aggressive on 4th down.

Onside kicks are low percentage but the New Orleans Saints of '09 and Alabama of '15-'16 would disagree with you..:D

The math is pretty clear that almost all coaches are FAR too conservative on 4th down.

Paelos , good breakdowns on the drives which does give a better view of things. The failure to run on the 3rd and 1 and the ones when they were in field goal range are pretty inexcusable. As I said before the enemy there wasn't the score or the Pats, it was the clock.

Also on their defense, they created two turnovers and score 7 points.

I think the wierd thing is that this game went exactly as many thought it would except that the scoring all came in funny bunches, 2q for ATL and 4q for NE.

Good point. We assumed it would be high scoring and reasonably close, it just that they took turns scoring most of their points.