f13.net

Oddly, out of 150 footnotes in a 35 page thesis, this is the one factoid I just can't seem to find.  My google-fu is weak.  Can anyone point me to where someone at least estimates?  Our good friend Mr. Woodcock's page doesn't break down subscriptions by regions or offer an overall U.S. estimate.

If you happen to have $2050 lying around you could get this report:

http://www.screendigest.com/reports/07westworldmmog/readmore/view.html

I'll give them $50 for the report if they take out information on WoW and provide a complimentary blowjob.

about 26 people and 3 million chinese farmers using US proxys.

I'm quite certain SirBruce will pull a number out of his research if you email him.

Yes, research is a new new slang word that all the kids are using for that.

SirBruce aside, someone somewhere around here (http://forums.f13.net/index.php?topic=9713.0) mentioned a TV documentary that had claimed 3 million, again if you email the production company you might be able to get a citation from them.

Thanks.  I'll try that, or given my short paper deadline, just cite to mmogchart and say something like "WoW has 2 mil, nobody else has over 500k according to the chart" or somesuch. 

I really want to know how you managed to jam that in a law thesis.

Or perhaps I don't.

 :-P

My thesis is on virtual property.  A lot of academics writing in law and tech journals recently have been saying "down with the EULA and hurrah for virtual property rights".  I argue that the closest analogous body of U.S. law is Regulatory Takings stuff, which means that dumbasses suing because a game ends and/or their Ebayed items get nerfed might actually have a valid claim (if we grant virtual rights in the first place).  I contrast this with the more sympathetic Chinese labor-based conception of virtual property (a remnant communist theory).  My adviser is one of the top cyberlaw guys in the country so I'll probably get reamed, but it was fun to write.           

Fuck all that, you should be using the tragedy of the digital anticommons model.  It's crunchier.

ETA -- Ironwood, I've used MMOs as fertile ground for several papers in my former LL.M. program.  The legal scholar folks are always looking for topics like that -- it gives us something new to do.

Digital anti-commons stuff has been done, alot.  I always operate on the theory that proposing a sort of crazy, seemingly plausible theory that hasn't been dealt with much yet is the best route to a good grade.  And I'm not seeking to publish anyway (I have insane classmates writing 80 page opuses for that). 

Looks like nice comprehensive and broad coverage that. Doesn't F13 have a budget for this sort of things? ;)

I'd be interested in knowing if they actually have estimated people count, or if it's like just about everything else out there: active accounts. Fine to assess flat-fee games, trickier for "free" or microtrans ones.

Basically, it's just an extremely hard number to pin down because what's important to each company may be slightly different. "Eye balls" to an ad-supported site vs paying-subscribers to another, for example.

Triforcer, seems to me you'd be more interested in the microtrans activity, based on your thesis. You can find activity on this through Google-fu alone. May not talk much about individual people, but it does talk about revenue.

Getting an accurate person count is basically impossible even if you subscribe to the loony theory that WoW is its own separate universe. First problem is that many people play multiple MMOs so if even if you could somehow get accurate player count numbers for individual games (that all but a handfull of non-Asian MMO companies are loathe to give out), you couldn't just sum them up to get the total number of MMO players in the US cause there would be lots of overlaps. Second problem is how to count players in games that aren't subscription-based. If somebody downloads Second Life, tries it once, and never plays it again, does that person count as a SL player? What if they only play twice a year? 4 times a year? And so on. Finally, we would all have to agree on a definition of what an MMO is. Do text MUDs count? I mean if people consider Guild Wars 8 on 8 combat an MMO I would say text MUDs should count. Heck Counter-Strike and BF 1942/2/2142 and all those other MP shooters should count too.

Edit: period might help

Yeah I know anticommons is overdone, but I see it as part of a bigger idea.  I agree with DQ on microtrans.  I also agree that you should go as nutty as you can.  When I wrote my RMT paper, I discussed gambling liability and tax liability.  It was "unpossible" back then, so it was kinda nifty to get an A+ for citing to Julian Dibbel. 

It's probably much more easy and realistic to get numbers in terms of dollars and not people. Lots of different pricing models, but revenue and profit are always the same no matter where you go. You could then compare it to the size of other industries in terms of revenue and/or profit and get some sort of feel for it.

From that link:


Heh?!  :-o

Well then, figure out how many NA players WoW has, divide by .54, and there you go!

Without my laptop immidiately handy:

http://www.theesa.com/facts/gamer_data.php

Now as to numbers, Ive had to actually compile most of the relavent stats myself, using available sources. The issue is categorization mostly but heres the rough breakdown:

Approximately (PC/Console/MMOG):

28m Gamers US
14m Korea
26m EU
China 8m MMOG?

As a % of population Korea has the highest number of MMOG players due to broadband penetration

There is significant crossover console goons playing MMOG's etc but you can assume approx 28-40m MMOG players worldwide

28bn for games
11bn for mobile games
8bn for casual

These are rough based on memory, I dont have my laptop available for the time being. PM me and Ill email you the links or refferances at a later date

PS: Why are you guys so hard on Bruce, Im not sure what the spilt milk is about here on f13, it predates my registration I guess.

The one thing I will say is this: quantifacation of the gaming market and its consumers is very very hard, which is why no ones bothered tackling it except crazy people, dosnt say a whole lot for me I guess but whateva'

Thanks for the help (and the links) all!  Much obliged.

I thought the message I have been repeatedly yelling at the top of my lungs had sunken in by now!

Check this page to see just how popular Runescape is:

http://buzz.yahoo.com/video_games/

That's right, Club Penguin beats WoW too.

Then realize that Habbo, Webkinz, and many others are also playing in the multi-millions territory.

(note WoW makes lots more money).

Raph lives!

It's actually not all that impressive in that Runescape had around $50 million in subscription revenue in 2006. In other words assuming the report is correct, the next nearest competitor to WoW in the West is an order of magnitude smaller than WoW in terms of revenue.

All that tells me is that people don't know the web address for Runescape and Club Penguin. People don't need to search for WoW because (1) its in their face on every bloody gaming website, and they've all got a fat list of bookmarks for the forums, addons makers and thottbot type sites (2) they're too busy raiding to bother with the web any more.

This is the same discussion over and over.

Maplestory has near 60mil registered accounts. It therefore has the potential to have 7 times the amount of eyeballs as WoW. This is not important to direct game revenue, but is important to their ad-revenue model.

Habbo Hotel has around 20% more registered accounts as Maplestory. Same qualifier. Microtrans-model means the actual amount of people who invest in the game generate far less revenue than WoW. But that's only if you do a side-by-side comparison of ARPU and discount the marketing side of things.

Runescape is tre-popular, but far more so on the free-to-play front end (like Club Penguin) than on the subscription-based back end.

WoW has won the old school view of MMORPGs: big ass budget, flat monthly fee. They win. Hands down. There is no arguing with both their openness in reporting where the numbers are, and how much money the flat-monthly gives them (if you dig you can find their take from The9 too I believe).

However, this only matters when people stop assuming the only way to measure "the winner" in this genre is the way we were back in EQ>UO>AC days.

[Sarcasm]I say poo poo to that Raph, everyone knows those are kiddie games, and Flash games at that! Those dont make any money, and cant be taken seriously. Furthermore that big huge demographic of kids and parents only has 9x the spending power of the 18-38 MMMOG players.....

Ergo since it is not on the traditional MMOG radar it must be irrelevant! [/sarcasm]

PS: Make sure everything runs on Apollo (<------serious)

I set-up a Runescape account for my daughter a few weeks ago because it was Free, and she wanted to play something while mom & dad were.  However, she won't play it because as she says; "It's not fun, and it looks ugly."   From what I saw, the interface is total shit, the flash coding is horrible and the damn thing WAS ugly.

She's back to playing Foster's on the Cartoon Network site.

Sooo, yeah, keep hyping it up.

Ahhh but you do understand what can be done in Flash 9 is FAR different than Runescape....

Runescape looks like ass but has been around for a very long time and has a following. Like, you know, EQ1, AC1, UO, and so on and so forth. You wouldn't introduce those games to folks brand new to the genre either. Or maybe you would, but I wouldn't. I direct everyone to WoW (if they want adventure), SL (if they want to build), or Club Penguin (if they're not into e-peen waving and just want to decorate a little place to call their own).

From there they're more than capable of deciding if they want a more immersive experience, a customizable environment that doesn't look like last year's ass, or yet-another-from-a-list-of-scores Flash-based freebie MMO.

Darniaq, your email addy on your blog does not work dude.