f13.net

Caveat Emptor, bitches (http://www.f13.net/index2.php?subaction=showfull&id=1117768851&archive=&start_from=&ucat=13&).

Revolutionary!

It's interesting the degree to which in-game economic activity and the balance in the economic model are becoming major selling points in the persistent worlds.  I don't think it'd be out of line for say SOE to have a couple of economists fresh out of college on staff.  On the one hand I'm very much looking forward to flexible player-run economies (or backward, since ATiTD kind of did it already), on the other hand I expect in most cases it'll work out just as well as 'player-run justice' or 'player-run citybuilding' or any other mechanic the idiots will fuck up if you let them.

At this point, I'd rather run a farm then whack a foozle. That said, I've got a soft spot for farm simulators. It's probably why I own 4 versions of Harvest Moon even though I know which one is the best - and I still plan on buying 2 more.

Puzzle Pirates offers this kind of model as well -- no monthly fee, can buy in game credits with real money or earn credits by doing things in game.

Isn't that a M: TG card??  :evil:

I've come to that point as well.  I'm far more interested in the crafting and economic side of mmogs than the killing and looting side.

Roma Victor looks very interesting.  The FAQ makes it look quite promising, which I hope it lives up to.

WAP, Harvest Moon is a farming simulator that's been coming out for like 20 years. Natsume has probably existed solely on the creation of that game. It's come out for I think, 6 or 7 systems now.

+1 for the upcoming DS release (http://ds.ign.com/articles/563/563218p1.html). I had the GBA version but sold it once I got bored doing the same chores over and over again.

You'll be doing the same chores again on the DS version, don't kid yourself.

Didn't say I was going to buy it did I?

Animal Crossing DS, now that's my kind of collectathon.

How long did you last in ATitD? 

Well, at least you didn't have to debuff your flax before harvesting it.

Edit: In retrospect, I shouldn't talk.  I think you outlasted me.

No, you had to rot it before combing it.

The problem with ATiTD, which otherwise completely pwned the crafting space, was the MOTHERFUCKING GRIND.  I thought making charcoal was damn fun.  Little minigame. . get your wood. . cook it.  Maybe grow some flax while you're waiting.  Make some rope.  Good times.  But making 3,000 charcoal in your bank of 18 charcoal hearths over 2 weeks is NOT FUN.

ATiTD had too much walking and too much.....stupid. There was just too much. Of everything. Animal Crossing, yesiree, that's getting close. These games need more FUN. I know how to make fun in them, but someone has to buy the idea. ^_^

ATiTD is the only mmog I've played that I was afraid of getting RSI.  I rather enjoyed the hunting of mushrooms, but the brick-making and flax-making...  ouch.

Speaking of hunting of mushrooms.

I really wish someone would make a fascinating Treasure hunting MMOG. Where the point of the game is the loot, not the levels. But you'd really need twitch for that. Even if it was Zelda 1 1987 style twitch.

I swear you have a twitch fettish.  Granted, you are very good at twitch-based games.  I just don't think you realize that twitch-based games alianate the other 90% of the gaming world that aren't so great at twitch (myself included).  This is why you may never see twitch in any mmog-type game aimed at the mass market.  I will admit that I'm fascinated with the sales of twitch/FPS games.  It strikes me odd that so many people have a fascination for twitch when they really aren't that proficient at it.  I'm guessing it's like short guys and basketball. 

Now twitch in a niche mmog... that I could see.  Now you just have to convince an Indie to make it.

Oh no, I understand twitch is a niche, even though alot of the best selling games in the world involve some sort of twitch. Hell, even the best selling puzzle games in the world involve twitch. That said, if there's room for 20 reasonably budgeted MMOGs with motherfucking elves and swords and grinds, there's got to be room for a couple well-funded twitchy mmorpgs (read: something faster than that planetside).

Cuz if twitch was completely niche, Half-Life, Halo, Unreal Tournament, Quake, Doom - these games wouldn't keep getting made. Hell, Microsoft is basing an entire next-gen console off Halo. Just sayin'.

How is it niche? http://archive.gamespy.com/stats/

yah I don't think twitch is niche at all.. Also see http://www.bungie.net/Stats/ for Halo2 (over 90,000 people online playing Halo2 right now).

Also, see the xbox live top 25 games:

http://www.xbox.com/en-US/games/live-top25games.htm?level1=enuslivehome&level2=topgames&level3=top25gameslist

Forza Motorsport is 2nd, but following that is 5 more twitch games.

However, comma, (oh wait I didn't need to say comma because I typed one) gamespy/xbox live only shows you the number of online game players and 95% of all twitch games have an online component. A lot of non-twitch games don't typically have online components.

Of course, if your definition of twitch games is having to 'twitch' on the controller to win, then a lot of fighting and some sports games could be included in that category. If we count only FPSs, it's still a pretty darn big following.

How many players online does WoW have at any one time? My guess is less than 90,000 - though maybe not by much. (looking at US only).

The general rule is that MMO's peak population amounts to about 1/5th of their subscriber base. In the case of WoW that would be ... 300,000, discounting the huge Chinese beta that Blizzard is currently running.

Of course average online populations will be significantly lower, but still well over Halo 2s number, probably even for the US alone. GW probably easely surpasses this number also, considering the huge sales it has had so far.

MMO>FPS, but anything past that is faaaaaaaaar behind (think third must be RTS).

WoW was getting over 200K concurrent users at the end of last year back when they *only* had 600K subscribers (they actually hit 180K concurrent with 290K accounts when the game first game out). Of course that was peak holiday time and the game was brand new but now they have over double the number of subscribers.

When will it be accepted that MMOG's ARE A NICHE NOT MASS MARKET.

The subscription fee alone makes them a niche, because the mass market doesn't pay subscription fees to play ONE game. Secondly, the mass market isn't always online. So why be concerned if twitch makes an MMOG niche, because you are already in a niche.

How many copies of a genre must be sold in a year to not be niche anymore? If the "niche" is over a million customers, does it matter?

Compare RTS to MMO (number of games produced vs number of games bought), which one would be "niche"?

(Thanks for the numbers on WoW, I had forgotten the 1/5th theory and was really just trying to count how many NA servers they had and the load I normally saw on them).

It's not about how many boxes are sold, but how big the POTENTIAL market is. And 1 million is not in anyway the potential market for most MMOG's out there. After SWG's failure to sell even EQ1's numbers, I didn't expect any MMOG to sell 1 million, and I imagine neither did most other pundits. Gameplay, the subscription fee, genres, all of these things combine to make MMOG's a niche market, because the audience starts self-selecting right at the "must pay subsction fee" and "must play online" portion of the game.

It could have been a bit smaller.  On the other hand, I was able to put my house in an awesome valley, mere seconds from water, wood, etc.  Back on the first hand, it took me a long time to run back to "town" for anything.  The massive, trackless wasteland, though, that was pretty rough.

Well, I'd be concerned if I were an investor. 

MMOG's are indeed a niche market and you so subtly stated.  This makes a twitch derivative a niche within a niche.  Further, until we determine whether the marketing strategy of GW is successful, MMOG's continue to make a majority of their profits from subs and not box sales.  With the abundance of twitch variants out there that don't charge a sub fee, I think retention in this type of sub-niche would be an issue. 

This was the gist of my point... it appears I articulated it poorly last time.

.

Here's a better breakdown of concurrency numbers from back in March when Blizzard announced they had hit 1.5 million subscribers (http://www.blizzard.com/press/031705-worldwide.shtml). WoW also just launched in China (http://www.blizzard.co.uk/press/050606.shtml) and they are saying they had a peak of 500K concurrent users during beta. In other words, more money hats for everybody! :-D

In regards to MMOGs being a niche market, that might be true now but I don't expect that to be true in the future. MMOG subscriber growth has been skyrocketing, especially if you look at the Asian markets (they seem to have an insatiable appetite for MMOs over there) and that's going to continue for the foreseeable future especially when you take the upcoming next-gen consoles into account.

Retention may definitely be an issue in a niche of a niche. However, I think the free variants have shown a remarkable amount of retention rates, such as CS, which is a niche of a niche (FPS games with online multiplayer components). I think the problem most investors have with niche is that the numbers aren't big enough. Why aim for 10,000 users when you can aim for 100,000 users? What isn't considered though is how much more expensive that 100,000 users are. I think if an MMOG could target 10k users instead of 100k, it would be a much better MMOG and profitable as well, even at 10k users.

Retention in MMOG's is going to become a HUGE problem in the next two years, if for no other reason than there are so many other MMOG choices available.

Nope.  Because while we're getting older and still playing games we're also breeding.  Some of us have been breeding for quite awhile.

Scariest thought of the day.

Oh you know you can't wait to swim upstream...  :-D

I think you've struck something here that we'd all like to see.  If a developer could target a niche and satiate their needs well, both retention and profitability would be solved.  I'll even go so far as to admit that I'd pay a higher monthly fee to play a niche game that was well done.

The only problem with this strategy that I could envision is that there is a great deal of future investment capital to be had by creating something with mass appeal.  If your initial target hits those 100k sub numbers, than any projects you pitch in the future would garner a greater possibility for buy-in.  I think this is also a reason that we see the high failure rate among mmog projects.  Too many people are going after the trophy fish when they could better survive on a smaller market and build from that success.  Of course, since I'm not "in the business" most of this is just talking out my ass.

No, you're right. The investors who will put money in an MMOG want the EQ/WoW type of return. They want the BIG WIN. Almost no one with venture capital wants to be known as the guy who funded Eve Online, even though that game is profitable with a smaller base and apparently appeals to its niche quite well, or even ATitD, which again, was profitable but only had between 1500-3000 users. Venture capitalists don't generally give a fuck how good the game is, they just want the return. And if the choice is make a profitable niche game that makes $100k a year or a profitable mass-market game that makes $2 million a year, they choose the latter.

The opportunity cost of money.  One of the factors for OCM is the fixed cost of managing the investment.

Potential markets are very hard to estimate, especially in relatively new fast-growing markets like online gaming. In Europe WoW became a couple times the entire estimated potential market for MMO's, for example. Considering the subscription fee: GW is selling briskly btw and is essentially an MMO as well, maybe a hint for the future.

Even more to the core: how do you define "niche" and "mainstream" Haemish ? Because by your categorisation it appears everything in gaming is "niche" except Solitaire and online card games.

For MMOG's: Niche = 50k or less subscribers
Mainstream = 50K + subscribers, with the hopes of being 100k+