f13.net

Take this with a big grain of salt since the rumour originated on Kotaku, but the upcoming PS4, code named "Orbis", will imploy many cockblocks that are sure to piss off gamers.  A sample:

"So let's run through the check list (remember this is a rumor from an unnamed source, so don't get too upset):

1) No backwards compatibility.
2) A system that limits or blocks used games.
3) Always Connected system tied to your PSN account.
4) Horrible Name.
5) AMD x64 CPU and AMD Southern Islands GPU"

If true, there is no fucking way I'll be buying it and I know many other people won't as well.  This is definately full retard territory (if true).

http://www.gamepolitics.com/2012/03/28/rumor-mill-sonys-new-console-nightmare-consumers

#2 is also being reported as a good possibility for the next XBox system too.  I guess that's one way to screw over the used game industry and ensure developer profits  :why_so_serious:

The game publishers are driving the bus and they want those things, so it doesn't even count as surprising. Especially since the mechanisms for them need to be designed into the hardware of the console even if some publishers choose not to use them. They know that consoles are hackable so the always connected feature helps combat that, plus needed for game registration. If they're basically abandoning the custom hardware and going back to a repackaged PC architecture then not providing backwards compatibility is probably inevitable.

The amusing thing will be console gamers realising that when you buy into a proprietary platform you don't get options other than the ones you are given.

#2 I care about very little; #1 is retarded and you'd think they'd have learned from the PS3 that people really want that.

#3 would be terrible for sales, no way itll get in.

I'm a bit out of the tech loop atm, what makes this point particularly bad?

As for (1) I didn't care about backwards compatability in the 3 as I had no ps 1/2 games but this time round I want the feature.  I don't buy used games but I do lend games to friends so (2) would piss me off.  Don't care at all about (3), (4) is nitpicky crap, I bought a Wii after all, the name means nothing to me.

I suspect the PS3 zealots liked the fact the PS3 had a custom designed chip-set. So going back to more commodity hardware is a bit humbling. Though the article didn't specify every item on the checklist was bad, just part of the rumor.

It's a sound business decision I suspect, though it does lead inevitable to no backwards compatibility which is a bit painful.

The thing is even if it does not support used games directly there is a 95% chance that publishers will cut deals with Gamestop that allows Gamestop to sell working used games, thus mostly defeating the purpose of locking out used games in the first place.

That has been the trend so far. Even if the technology exists to cut Gamestop completely out of the loop that still won't happen.

They're screwed on backward compatibility unless they want to stay with the cell architecture and get nvidia to do a custom next-gen GPU that is compatible with the PS3 one -- which is unlikely to be cost or time effective.

The PS2 proved to be impractical to emulate on the PS3 (they fell back to hardware assist -- including a chunk of the original PS2 chipset -- expensive and still not flawless and then they just gave up entirely so they could at least stop eating the hardware cost) and the PS3 architecture is even more complex, specialized, and hard to emulate.  None of their options for chipset and GPU have enough performance headroom to even hope to emulate the PS3 in software.


I have never bought a used game or resold a game, but I really dislike these attempts to thwart resale.


Sony's going to have to have some pretty stunning content for PS4 for me to justify buying one.  Increasingly I do my gaming on the PC.  Weird because I used to really prefer consoles for their level of "it just works" but that's faded as PCs become more absurdly performant (less need to constantly upgrade and fight performance issues) and stupidity on the console vendor side keeps increasing the suckitude on consoles....

I like the idea of killing resale. It will be the final revenge for the retail game industry dumping PC gaming because it wasn't profitable on the resale market and as a PC gamer I lose nothing.

They'll do it because the publishers want all the $ they're not getting, no one cares so much about the retailers who will fade against online distribution over the life time of the console (they want the retail margin too) and Sony and MS will agree not to compete on the basis of anti-piracy features.

That said if they can come up with a way to screw, err, monetize gamers I'm sure they'll extend them to the PC market wherever possible.

Restricting the sale and use of used games will only fuel the trend of people waiting for GotY editions or reduced price reissues of games after 6 months/a year.

People who don't buy new won't buy full price either. Especially for games that cost $65+

I don't care that I can't resell iPhone games or buy them used, because the biggest invest was Chaos Rings with $10. I would care for titles that are $60 - $70 though.

A better approach would be to make games distribution more cost effective because the fact that gamestops margins on used games are significantly higher than on new games is part of the problem there.

A big chunk of the price of a game is platform licensing and certification and intermediate costs for distribution.

Are there really that many consoles connected to the net now?

No. Last I recall some significant percentage of all 3 current gen consoles aren't only not connected to the internet but have NEVER been connected to the internet.

Man, publishers really, really want second-hand sales dead. Isn't removing the ability to re-sell the product you bought against fair use however? Not that our courts give a shit about anything that helps consumers.

You can't re-sell anything you bought through digital distribution, so I'd guess there isn't really a legal problem there.  Personally for now I'm dismissing it all as bullshit rumors, but if this did end up being true, I'd be pretty worried if I was a video game retailer.  The loss of used game sales is the least of it for them.  If console makers are already going to require every next-gen system to be connected to the internet, how long before they decide to just stop selling physical discs and just have all their games purchased through PSN or XBL?

This is why I cant believe that rumor, sony has got to know the number of consoles sold vs the number online now.  If they made online a necessity they might as well just cut their profits in half.

They need to build capabilities into the hardware now that may be needed over its lifetime (~10 years I read in one article). I would not be surprised if they also see the future being in social / multiplayer games and online media sales / streaming so encouraging people to connect their consoles to the net is a positive in all sorts of ways.

(http://i.imgur.com/ZzT1o.jpg)

Don't forget that a move like this will drive the % of net-connected consoles up. There may be a lot of non-connected consoles in houses that have internet connectivity but that just haven't been connected, either to enable the owners to run pirated games on modded consoles or because some people just don't feel a need to.

I'm sure the % of the people who are the console target demographic that has access to an internet connection is pretty high now. Plus isn't the console sales model similar to the printer sales model? You sell the hardware at low (or zero) margin and make high margin on consumable sales (games/ink cartridges). Factor in the presumably huge margins on digital distribution via XBL/PSN and the "requires internet connection" sums start to make a lot of sense I imagine.

I'm sure posting a picture of ancient game systems says something... not sure what. Though if you are waiting for the next Sega console patience may not be enough.


Incidentally the Sega megadrive had a 9 year lifetime according to wikipedia (1988-1997) and that for a console that would have cost a tiny fraction of the development cost of the next gen consoles.
 

Not long now. 2, 3 years before physical discs for consoles get the same treatment PC disks get now? Brick and mortar for digital products is getting fucked in the ass these days. Best Buy is closing 50 stores and testing out a store model that concentrates on mobile sales, eReaders and stuff like that. The retail chain is just really inefficient and causes the publisher to lose a significant amount of revenue they could otherwise recoup if all they had to sell was bits.

As for this rumor, I'm seriously skeptical. Dropping the Cell architecture would be a HUGE admission of failure on the part of Sony, who claimed for years that a $600 console was absolutely crucial and didn't matter because the lifecycle was a decade and OH THE CELL IS THE BESTEST CHIP ARCHICTECTURE EVAR!!!! The gigantic PSN hackery snafu is also going to hurt them if this kind of no used games always connected console thing is really what they are going to market. If the sequel to the 360 is looking to be released at the same time according to the rumors, I just don't see Sony wanting to release at the same time.

I don't put much stock in this announcement.

Meanwhile, over here, our largest gaming retailer shit the bed and died (http://www.reghardware.com/2012/03/21/game_officially_files_for_administration/) earlier this week. Mind you, the last time I went into one of their shops about all it had was a few new copies of the current Top 10 games for 360 & PS3 and a metric fuckton of the same games as "nearly new", so it's not really any great loss from a consumer's perspective.

I laugh every time I see pc game sales figures that don't include online sales or direct downloads. By that metric, I haven't bought a single game in years!

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2012-03-28-gamestop-could-refuse-to-stock-playstation-orbis-says-pachter

One of the analysis stars of the industry predicts GameStop wouldn't even stock the PS4 if it prohibits used game play.

That would be awesome.

Has Pachter ever actually been right about anything?

Sometimes he's vague enough that he's half-right.

As an aside, I'm sure Mahrin Skel likes the name "Orbis" for this thing.

#2 will ensure that I never purchase a gaming system again after the PS3.  Although for me that isn't too big of a deal since I really don't use the PS3 for anything other than Blue ray right now and occasionally a game like Heavy Rain.


If anything I think those type of changes may help revitalize the PC as the preferred gaming platform for consumers.  Which is great for me, it leaves me scratching my head as to why a console developer would want to go this route.

Because PC's have a huge and thriving used game and rental market?

Steam sales are the PC answer to the used game market.

I thought an increasing number of game titles were being sold through the big retail chains anyway. The big game publishers are large enough they don't need to bend their knee to specialist retail.

I think the article is right in saying it won't happen if only one of the two vendors try to enforce it, but given they're both eager for content and exclusives they'll listen carefully to the same message from the publishers and make sure their hardware at least has the capability. Whether it gets used and how big the backlash is will be decided after that.

Heh, we have some Game stores in Australia, they were terrible.

The last 3 console games I picked up I bought cheaper new off Amazon than my local Gamestop wanted me to pay used.  Would never miss them.

The no backwards compatibility is actually the thing that bothers me the most.  I'm sure their is some reason about incompatible hardware but I can't help but see it as "It's Sony, it reads discs, why can't it play my PS2 games?"

It's also the answer to the "no used games" on consoles too.

Then have all those old titles up on a market place, a check about what games were on a user account before a certain date and all those titles are now accessible on your new next-gen console. Sure, if you did a lot of renting / borrowing / trading you'll have a big game list, but it removes that problem as an issue.

I think when we last did this dance the Xbox 360 stats said that they'd sold 60m units and had 40m Xbox Live accounts.

According to a Gamasutra article from two years back, 78% of PS3's were connected online and the 360 had 73% (http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/28058/Study_PS3_Has_Highest_Percentage_Of_Connected_Consoles.php).

Lack of backwards compatibility is annoying, but as long as they don't start out with it and then remove it like they did on the PS3, I'll be fine with it.  I mean, I didn't demand that my Super Nintendo play original Nintendo games, so if it's not a feature they initially included and then removed, it won't be too much of an issue.  Although, I too question whether this rumor is true.

The other things don't really bother me at all, except for one question: what about renting games?  See, I've purchased games I've rented and found to be good.  I'm pretty sure a lot of people have.  So, unlike used game sales, rentals can in fact lead to purchases.  Is there a way to kill used game sales while leaving rentals alone, or will they be killing the rental market as well?

I'm pretty sure they like the game rental market even less than the re-sale market. Indeed since most of the EULA seem to specifically dis-allow renting the game you are basically a pirate in their eyes already.

I know video/DVD rental outlets can't just buy a retail copy of a film and rent it, they have to pay a special price that makes it legal for them to then rent it.

I guess the same thing must happen for game rentals or else Blockbuster would have been prosecuted already.

I've always wondered myself... and what sort of bill do they pay?

In a mildly related subject, this deck was thrown around work this week.  It's a fairly fast read, and if the numbers are legit, pretty damn daunting for anyone trying to predict what is going to happen next.  From personal experience, literally one day everyone at work was thinking "What is Pinterest?" and a few days later we had someone hired to fill a content position for our Pinterest content management.  

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-future-of-mobile-deck-2012-3

I have a feeling that we're on the verge of gaming consoles being done with hard media completely.  Maybe this next generation will sell discs, but the one after that is certainly going to be a radically different beast.  

I take it back... Game publishers hate second-hand sales a lot more than rental. This article on Gamesutra (http://www.gamasutra.com/blogs/LuisLevy/20111114/8832/The_Origins_and_Fate_of_the_60_Retail_Copy.php) and some posts by Blockbuster suggesting they consider it a weapon against used game sales. And they also managed to get more money for rental copies or a revenue sharing agreement with the big rental chains.

I'd still expect that relationship to sour once they can remove used game sales from the equation though. The move to on-line components to games is partly doing that already.

Interesting slides. Not surprising at all, catching the bus into the city the number of people playing around with their smart-phones is staggering. Whereas seeing a DS has gotten very rare. I'm not sure tablet growth will boom quite as hard, the smartphone has a massive mobility and price advantage and much of the lure is apples reputation for "sexy". But yeah, anyone standing in the way of digital should be pretty nervous.

Replace disc rentals with paid digital demos, optionally let the money paid for the demo count toward the full game purchase, and finally flush down memories of better days.

Purely anecdotal, but I know several people who live in large cities in the US (NYC and DC, primarily, with some in Chicago) who own either a DS or a 3DS, yet never play them on public transportation. The one reason they all share? "It's too embarrassing." It's socially acceptable, apparently, to fiddle with a game on your smartphone, but pulling out a DS or a PSP will get you mocked as a manchild.

This is certainly the case.  I choose to not be frustrated that I can play horseshit like Angry Birds in public, but not SMT Devil Survivor.

Tom's Hardware Gaming CPU Hierarchy. (http://www.tomshardware.com/reviews/gaming-cpu-review-overclock,3106-5.html)

The thing that bothers me about the potential loss of the rental game is not that I won't be able to go save $5 on Mass Effect 3.  It is that I will have no reasonable way to go pick up a copy of F1 2010 or whatever) on the cheap.  Xbox Live or PSN may actually offer that game, I don't know...but I doubt it would be at a price that I would be willing to pay.  And even if it was, fuck having to download the whole thing, and fuck having to store the whole thing on the disk.

As others have said, none of this is surprising.  I'd buy just about all of it and expect there to be lots of grousing but little backlash unless the console is also stupidly ($500+) priced AGAIN.

No backwards compat? Who cares, they're seeing the same thing as steam. Online digital distro is the future, so it'll be easy enough to release old games for a 'small' download fee a few years down the line.  The PS3 having had to drop it showed them that while gamers will bitch, the average consumer really didn't care too much.  After all you buy the new console to play new games, only enthusiasts hold on to and play old ones.

As for the online-only; I'd bet their research has shown the folks most likely to have their consoles offline are also those most likely to buy used games in the first place.  They don't want their money if the publishers are threatening to walk w/o some sort of DRM.


Sony just announced the replacement of their CEO yesterday in conjunction with the announcement that this will be their 4th straight year (not quarter) of BIG losses.   The new guy /says/ he wants to focus on the consumer instead of being a tech innovator.   Dropping the cell architecture would be the best example of doing just that.  Let chip mfrs design and produce chips and focus on being the entertainment provider instead.  Also, they learned with the 360/PS3 gap that being early/ at the same time is a bigger advantage than previously thought.   

It's also pretty damn embarrassing when your last-gen console is STILL in more homes than your current-gen. Source. (http://www.geekwire.com/2012/ps2-tops-ps3-homes-surprising-videogame-stats/)  The number of smart-devices and pads have to be making console mfrs at least a little nervous, too.  As players move online the need to support multiple players on one device is going away, meaning those items are going to be a threat at some point.   The only thing keeping them in check right now is the size of the screen, IMO.

That's 78% of PS3 users that have broadband. Very, very important distinction when talking about broadband penetration (last I read was under 40% of the US) and console sales.

Yeah, my "broadband" is at best 832kbps down/500-ish up, and may work flawlessly all day or randomly shit the bed every few minutes (yay rural America!) 

I'm not downloading an entire blu-ray full of game data anytime soon.  I only connect my 360 to download patches, enter codes or for small DLCs. 

The constant patches and nerfing is about the only thing that pisses me off about the playstation.  Shit half the time mine requires a system update I come away with the distinct feeling that the only thing they updated was the ToS.  

On the ps4 I personally could really give a crap about backwards compatibility and DRM for used games but unfortunately there are thousands of users who care enough to crack it, once that happens the cycle of nerfs and 2 patches a week begins.

If the ps4 was just a ps3 that allowed me to install my games to drive (so I wasn't constantly fumbling with disks) and never ever have to upgrade or agree to revised ToS's I would probably buy it.

If they really want to take a bite out of the used game market WTF don't they make ALL games available/installable via the PSN Store?

TOTALLY off topic - I have a Q9450. Had it for just shy of 4 years now (got one out of the first box of the first batch at Fry's), the computer hardware industry has given me ZERO reason to upgrade.

And this isn't even bringing in the topic of Data Caps.

This is less important if we all end up playing small games with shitty art assets.

I'm pretty sure the future of consoles is not Angry Birds. I think there will be MORE of that stuff, certainly... but we'll still be getting the big AAA titles as well.

You will be getting a lot fewer of them because they're too all-or-nothing.

Even if we guess that their research showing that people with no broadband or keep their console offline tend to buy used, I'm not sure how that equates to less AAA titles.

How fast can "app game" quality catch up to console quality?  There certainly is a diminishing returns curve on graphics quality where incremental improvement won't be as visually obvious.  There are plenty of iPad games with almost PS2 quality visuals - just not complex gameplay. 

What are the limitations for app developers? iPad to iPad CoD cannot be that far off.

I think we are trying to connect lack of wide broadband penetration to smaller games for download purposes.  Plus the fact that crap games make tons of money on phones.

Package size, Ram, Development budget.

4 months for an app that nets you 30-100k is win. Even if that's its entire life cycle.

EDIT: also, GPU's.

Because a flop iOS/Xbox Arcade/'indie'-style $10 game is a much smaller hit to a developer's bottom line than a flop AAA game which cost X tens/hundreds of millions of dollars to develop.