f13.net

Playoff predictions

Battletech Div:

1st - llyse
2nd - Teleku

Cthulhu the Orient

1st - comstar
2nd - andydavo

Stormbringer

1st - brocktoon
2nd - hoax

Twilight 2000

1st - Falc
2nd - Avaia

Battletech Division:

It was a tough call but even though IceCream and Ingmar are sitting 2nd and 3rd I think Teleku and his deer headed quarterback have got it together from a big run Towards the playoffs. Lamaros will make a good show of it but it'll bent little too late. Even neckbeards fall to The Claw.

Cthulhu the Orient:

Comstar's team has had some stat ups and are looking fine to jiggle their way to the finals again. AndyDavo's experience to sneak by Xuri's Norse.

Stormbringer:

Here's where it gets interesting, Modern seems to have hit a good run of luck and his team will be strong enough to force their way into the playoffs past Ramas' Norse. I'm backing Hoax to make it past Megrim's morsels and out bash the Norse Glass cannon after a serious training regimé.

Twilight 2000:

Falc finally makes it into the playoffs after shaking off his choking and draw tendencies. Avaia will finish in 2nd place even with a strong showing from Bann's Dandies and Rat Country.

Overall pretty balanced divisions.

Playoff Predictions

Group 1:
Alive not Dead
Negative Capability

The 2 Necro teams go head to head. I hope the Dwarves don't  and would like to see the Lizards make it but don't think they can match the skills of the Necro teams.

Group 2:
F13 Catfighters, winning every game but losing some players on the way. See you in the finals!
The Wishmasters Wildcards. A new entry to the drawl comes out on top despite having a low Team Value.

Group 3:
Team Snoosnoo (to continue the Amazon links)
Scarlet and Grey

Another twin team playoff.

Group 4:
The Bell Jar Utd because girls are just better.
The Dandies (because I want to see the only Human team show that flexibility wins matches more than brute force or AG 4).

I finished last season with some very good level ups so I'm hitting this season running.

Thats very nice of you Llyse since I haven't won a game yet this season.  But thanks for the vote of confidence!

I can't even begin to make predictions, game is just to random.

At 1-1-1 I am going to have to pick up the pace if I want to make it.

Meh, considering that barring a miracle everyone who is not Llyse will have at least one loss by the end of the season, it makes more sense to consider yourself 1-1-0 in comparison to those who have not played Calvin & *deceased* yet.

The irony of me making it easier for other people to win that matchup is not lost on me.

Battletech Division

Can't really look past Alive not Dead to top the group. I think you'l see a decent chase for second, but I'd go with Beardstorm! by a whisker, there are a fair few good matchups for Dwarfs.

Orient Division

Catfighters and Hackers. Wildcards or Hackers is the real question mark, but Wildcards have had some early development setbacks and Iain seems to have lost his jinx this season.

Stormbringer Division

Predicting your own group only leads to disaster, so I'm going to go as far as to say I can see SnooSnoo, Scarlet & Gray, Hunqua all being in the running on day 6 or 7. I also think Rebourne's Ogres and Megrim's Morsel are going to upset some shit. You add an extra Vampire or Ogre to those teams, and roll a few less boneheads/bloodlusts, and suddenly they pull up trees. Plus Megrim is presumably good at this game, qualifying as he did from his (inferior) division last season.

Twilight Division

Initial inclination is Bell Jar and Rat Country. Problem is, the skaven team is going to face a lot of mobile but relatively bashy teams (3 flavours of humans, necro, to a lesser extent the undead), which are not great matchups for the Rats, so I'm going to go with Necco Waivers instead.

Selfless community service is the dwarven way!

Ditto Comstar for Cthulhu division!

Here are my original playoff predictions

Battletech

1st - Llyse
2nd - Lamaros

Cthulhu the Orient

1st - Comstar
2nd - AndyDavo

Stormbringer

1st - Megrim
2nd - No Idea!

Twilight 2000

1st - Strazos
2nd - Avaia

Revised Predictions

Battletech

1st - Lamaros
2nd - Llyse

Had to change the order around. Llyse won't win this week and then I'll defeat him the week after, putting myself top of the standings. I wont look back!

Cthulhu the Orient

1st - Comstar
2nd - AndyDavo

Nothing has changed in these predictions. Both are looking good.

Stormbringer

1st - Megrim
2nd - Ramas

Tough to pick these ones, but I think Megrim will still get there and Ramas can pick up enough points.

Twilight 2000

1st - Strazos
2nd - Avaia

Falc and Krummi have given themselves a good chance, but I'm going to stick with my early predictions.

In retrospective, we should have probably went for more people in the playoffs, like 4 per divisions. Sure, it's a little too forgiving (16 teams out of 32 making it to the playoffs, as opposed to actual 8 out of 32), maybe too much, but it keeps the regular season exciting way longer than with just two.

I think we should seriously do some brainstorming about it for the next season.

You could split the difference and take the top 3, finishing first gets you a bye?

I don't know if the game will let you get that complicated with the structure, though, and it could be argued that because of the way leveling and TV works getting a bye isn't actually advantageous.

If one were able to make the 1st place team play the 4th, and the 2nd place team play the 3rd, I would say that's a great way to go for an expanded divisional playoff scenario.  It still gives, presumably, an edge to the top team, but it doesn't damage them by depriving them of an mvp and other possible SPPs that a bye week would.

Top 4 is a bit too forgiving if the finals are a playoff system. There is a bunch of luck in this game and it would be wrong, funny but wrong, to see a team that went through the season undefeated get nuffled out at the first round of the finals to a team that scraped in 4th and lost more than they won. If the groups were bigger then top 4 would be a good option though.

I think it might be fun to have smaller groups and have everyone play each other twice, with the top two going to the finals. That keeps things alive more as beating a competitor can upset the order more, though how you would do it would be tough with the unflexible system cyanide has in place.

Of course heaps depends on how many are around for season 4 too.

Hey, it happened to the New Orleans Saints.   :grin:

Could go World Cup style with 4 person groups, yeah. Would it allow a 'consolation' playoff for teams who didn't make the cut for the top half?

Fuck playoffs tbh.

3 rounds of playoffs is plenty.

Can't be complicated at all, as I recall.

Top two is fine.

Technically they could be as complicated as we are willing to do paperwork for, since we could just stick all the playoff teams into a private challenge-only league and just keep track of who should play who when, results, etc.

Not that this would be remotely worth it, of course, unless somebody devises The Greatest Playoff Structure Known To Mankind.

Update on predictions:

Battletech

1st - Llyse
2nd - Ingmar - The beard is strong

Cthulhu the Orient

1st - Andy - not much to be said here
2nd - Proudft - Recovering from the early loss of a Throw-Ra Proudft will make into the playoffs reminding me of another necromantic team taking an early loss

Stormbringer

1st - SnooSnoo - Modern Angel is the freight train that never stops but will lose Joe to Hoax' dirty tricks  :awesome_for_real:
2nd - Megrim - Strong finish for an arrogant sonofabitch

Twilight 2000

1st - Falc - Representing women of all ugliness!
2nd - Strazos - Representing men of all sexuality!

No Iain nor Comstar? This is bold, man.

Yeah, I get to play Proudft in the next game day, if I win I'm practically guaranteed a playoff spot while Proudft has to beat me and Comstar to stay in contention. Comstar and Andy meet on day 7 and the winner of that game will also have a playoff spot although if Proudft beats me and then loses to Comstar, they could both go through.

Stormbringer is getting tighter.

The race for second looks like this :

6 pts   +4 TD   Silver Horde     to play Nifty Helments, Team SnooSnoo, Morsel
6 pts   +1 TD   Morsel              to play Rebourne's Wrestlers, Offsidhes, Silver Horde
5 pts   +2 TD   Offsidhes          to play Scarlet & Gray, Morsel, Rebourne's Wrestlers
5 pts   -1  TD   Scarlet & Gray  to play Offsidhes, Nifty Helmets, Team SnooSnoo
5 pts   -2 TD    H H Burninluv   to play Team SnooSnoo, Rebourne's Wrestlers, Nifty Helmets

If we make the assumption that Team Snoosnoo wins its matches by 1, and the Wrestlers and Helmets lose theirs by 2, we'd be left with this table.

11 pts  +1 TD   H H Burninluv   to play no-one
9 pts   +5 TD   Silver Horde     to play  Morsel
9 pts   +3 TD   Morsel              to play  Offsidhes, Silver Horde
8 pts   +4 TD   Offsidhes          to play Scarlet & Gray, Morsel
8 pts   +0  TD   Scarlet & Gray  to play Offsidhes

There is no way this many matches will go to form once patented Stormbringer Sauce is applied, but we can start to see how many points are needed to qualify (my guess, 12) and what people need to do against form to get there.

Burninluv need to score points against Snoosnoo, or they'll simply find themselves running out of matches.

Silver Horde need to stop tying matches, beat the Helmets and then one of SnooSnoo or Morsel.

Morsel have a run in against as wide a variety of teams as you can get, Elfs, Humans, Ogres, they need 2 of 3, but have been strongest against the dodgy and weakest against the bashy, no more Orcs means I think they are favourites.

Offsidhes and Scarlet and Gray both need at least 7 points and play each other on day 5, if one gets a clear win in that game they are certainly in the hunt, and the other is probably out of it. A draw still gives offsidhes a shot because of their easier run in, and better TD prospects, but a draw for S&G leaves them needing to beat SnooSnoo and hope for ties elsewhere.



As I mention above, my pick for second is Morsel.



EDIT : Breaking News, H H Burninluv just took down SnooSnoo, putting them on track for 14 points if they can get past the Wrestlers and Helmets.

In match up terms Ogres vs Lizards is interesting as Ogres are really a more extreme version of the Lizards, so unusual things might still happen there. I'd say this makes HHB favourites for second, but if either Scarlet and Gray or Silver Horde repeat HHB's win, SnooSnoo's place in the playoffs is suddenly up for grabs.

So if I told you that Burninlove beat me just now?

Playoff predictions

Battletech Div:

1st - Lamaros - played an interesting 2-2 draw with you, i tip you for a play off as long as u  win this week to stay in contention.
2nd - icecreamemperor (since he played so well against me i think he's in with a shout)


Cthulhu the Orient

1st - AndyDavo - me, if i dont back me i cant expect anyone else to tbh.
2nd - Comstar - an impressive team played by a good coach, always a dangerous mix. we do have a tight division however so either 1 or both of us may miss out.

Stormbringer - i know nothing of this division i'm afraid.

1st - brocktoon
2nd - Ramas

Twilight 2000

1st - Krummi - such an impressive record in nagg must mean this kids good
2nd - Falc - played him and he knows his way around a BB field

Someone believes in the commissioner after all. Just for the records, I only lost one match out of ten played. Think you can hit my dodgy girls, you bunch of pervs?

I'll beat you up with all my tackle/block orcs.

Llyse has 15 points and two games to play.

I have 7 with three. If I win all mine I have 16 points.

Ice has 11 and two. If Ice wins his he has 17 points.

Llyse plays both of us, so even one draw in any of those 5 games will mean he goes through. Massive call for him to miss.

Battletech Div:

1st - Lamaros - played an interesting 2-2 draw with you, i tip you for a play off as long as u  win this week to stay in contention.
2nd - icecreamemperor[/quote]

Llyse has 15 points and two games to play.

I have 7 with three. If I win all mine I have 16 points.

Ice has 11 and two. If Ice wins his he has 17 points.

Llyse plays both of us, so even one draw in any of those 5 games will mean he goes through. Massive call for him to miss.
[/quote]


it's only because i have played both of these coaches and i would expect them both to win their remaining games, given their standard. however i understand your point. I havenot ofc played the other coach u mention so maybe he is as good/ better? I'm still going to stand by my prediction since they were both nice guys and i would like to play them again. (i think the spanner in the works may be MY failure to qualify tbh, since my team is mashed beyond belief!

Shift key and spellcheck... :uhrr:

Cthulhu Division is now red hot with three teams chasing two spots and one outsider who can still (mathematically at least) force an upset.

After five games, AndyDavo and I are on 13 points, Comstar is on 12 and Proudft is on 9.

I've played all my games vs the other three contenders so I only have soft games vs Ginaz and Sky to go. It's possible that I'll drop some points but even if Nuffle kicks me hard in the balls I can still get through with 3 or 4 extra points.

AndyDavo and Comstar have to play each other on the last game day - this is easily the biggest game that day.

Comstar meets Proudft next before his crucial decider with AndyDavo, Andy has a soft game vs Haemish up next.

So, it's vanishingly unlikely that AndyDavo will lose to Haemish or that I will lose to Ginaz. We are both likely to be on 16 points each going into game day 7.

If Proudft beats or draws with Comstar then things get very interesting. A draw puts Proudft out of the running but also makes it almost impossible for Comstar to go through. Comstar would be on 13 points and, even if he beat AndyDavo in the final game then he'd need a huge TD difference to break the tie for second. As AndyDavo is likely to score a lot vs Haemish that's a forlorn hope.

If Proudft beats Comstar and Comstar beats AndyDavo then Proudft ends the season on 15 points, he needs AndyDavo to also lose vs Haemish and he needs to beat Comstar something like 7-0 to break the tie. It's theoretically possible but I wouldn't put any money on it.

The last day should see me on 19 points and with a solid playoff spot. AndyDavo will have 16 points before his game with Comstar. Comstar will need to have beaten Proudft to go any further so he will need to be on 15 points otherwise it's an all Dark Elf affair at the top of the table. At that point the AndyDavo/Comstar match decides the second playoff spot with AndyDavo only needing a draw to go through. If I draw either of my last two games then I need Comstar to score no more than four points from his last two games - if Comstar loses either of them then I am through automatically.

a very interesting write up, getting next weeks games played will be very interesting.  have you seen the state of my team thou - while i  would hope to win next week, i  dont hold much hope of scoring heavily, 2-1 will be about the best i can hope for. I would also add that i think comstar has got to be favorite going into the last game of the season he's about 600tv over me - i'm not going to be used to being on the recieving end of such inducements!

Even with a team full of loners I don't see you losing to Haemish. It may not end up a 7-0 thrashing but I'd expect at least 3 or 4 TDs from you. The Wood Elves are also unlikely to do a lot of damage to you either so you'll probably go into the last game vs Comstar with a mostly healthy team.

Comstar will definitely have the advantage in that game but it's going to be too close to call and there's a good chance that Proudft's Tomb Guardians will have injured a lot of his critical players for you.

Now I'm just going to hope Haemish punches both of you in the face...just to make things interesting.

I've already played Haemish. It's possible that he'll beat AndyDavo but vanishingly unlikely even with Andy only being able to field 6 of his own players in the game. Assuming that Haemish does pull off a win and Proudft beats Comstar then Proudft can scrape into the playoffs if he wins his last game and the AndyDavo/Comstar match ends in a draw. That's actually the best possible result for me because it means I only need two points from two games to go through.

Even with a gutted team though, AndyDavo is one of the most experienced players in the league and Haemish is very much a newbie. Nuffle only knows that games can go either way but I'd still put my money on Andy over Haemish regardless of the teams they are controlling.

i  would like to think that i can pull it off, since a 1-0 win will be good enough to mean all i need to do is avoid defeat in the last game to be sure of going up / qualifying. I wish we could replay our game Iain, i  really do. that was where it all fell apart for me, your cas dice were nasty. infact the dice generally were horrid!

Andy, mate. I know this is gonna sound silly, but we are kind of obsessed with punctuation and capital letters around here. I love your contributions to the forum, so please keep up the fantastic work, just with some more additional shift key. Seriously pal, it's great that you enjoy the thread, and since I sincerely appreciate your posts, just make them a little more old-fuckers compliant  :heart:

Elves couldn't punch a girl scout in the face.  :why_so_serious:

If I beat AndyDavo, you all should buy me a car because I don't see it happening. I've gotten better, but really I don't see me beating an experienced coach this season. I might have a chance against Xuri's Norse in the final game, depending on how many casualties/level ups I get on game day 6.

So with all of our Game Day #5 games played, we turn to the requisite Battletech Division What-If Playoff Analysis.

Current standings:

Llyse - Alive Not Dead          TD +10 - 13 points
ICE - Negative Capability      TD +3 - 11 points
Ingmar - Beardstorm!           TD +1 - 8 points
Lamaros - Rape of Skabine    TD +4 - 8 points
ezrast - 7 Deadly                  TD -1 - 7 points
Teleku - Hazardous Hippies   TD +2 - 4 points
Cadaverine - Fleshwound      TD -5 - 4 points
Nixel - Undread Fiesta          TD -12 - 0 points


To qualify...

Llyse has clinched a playoff spot (and a tactical advantage going into the playoffs) by drawing a free 2-0 over Nixel in the last round of games.

ICE needs to beat Llyse and draw Teleku, or beat Teleku and draw Llyse in order to guarantee a playoff spot. If ICE loses to either Llyse or Teleku, he needs to beat the other one by a larger margin than Lamaros/Ingmar beats each other in their final game. If Lamaros loses to ezrast and beats Ingmar, ICE only needs one draw from his two games to qualify.

Ingmar gets a free win next week, so he only needs to beat Lamaros and hope ICE loses one of his two games to ensure a tie for the last playoff spot. He needs to beat Lamaros by a larger TD margin than ICE wins his remaining game, or hope that ICE loses or draws said game.

Lamaros needs to win both his remaining games and hope ICE loses one of his two games to ensure a tie for the last playoff spot. Like Ingmar he needs to maintain a greater TD margin as well, but unlike Ingmar he starts with a +1 TD advantage.

ezrast needs to beat Lamaros and Cadaverine and hope that ICE loses and draws and Lamaros beats Ingmar in order to qualify.

Cadaverine, Teleku and Nixel need a time machine.


To win...

Llyse needs to draw or beat ICE to clinch the division title.

ICE needs to beat Llyse and Teleku to win the division.


Next week...

If Llyse beats ICE: Llyse wins the division. ICE needs to clobber Teleku and hope for the best.
If ICE beats Llyse: The title remains up for grabs. ICE just needs to tie Teleku to clinch a playoff spot.
If Llyse and ICE draw: Llyse wins the division. ICE needs to beat Teleku to clinch a playoff spot.

If Ingmar beats Nixel 2-0, nobody will be surprised.

If Lamaros beats ezrast: Ezrast is out. Lamaros still needs to beat Ingmar and hope for an ICE loss/tiebreaker victory.
If ezrast beats Lamaros: Ezrast still needs to win his next game and hope Lamaros beats Ingmar. Lamaros needs to beat Ingmar and hope ICE loses both his games and ezrast doesn't win his.
If ezrast and Lamaros draw: Ezrast is out. Lamaros needs to beat Ingmar and hope ICE only manages one draw from his games.

If Cadaverine beats Teleku: elves suck. undead rule!
If Teleku beats Cadaverine: elves rule! undead suck.
If Cadaverine and Teleku draw: the relative qualities of elves and undead will remain undecided into the foreseeable future.


Unlikely scenarios...

If ezrast beats Lamaros and draws with Cadaverine, Lamaros beats Ingmar, and ICE loses both his games, there will be a four-way tie for second place in the division.

If ezrast beats Lamaros 3-0, and Lamaros beats Ingmar by 2-1, (and ICE loses both his games), there will be a three-way tie for second place between Lamaros, ezrast and Ingmar even after TD difference is included.

If this occurs and the next tiebreaker is head-to-head matchups, nothing is resolved (they all beat each other.)
If this occurs and the next tiebreaker is TDs-for, Lamaros qualifies for the playoffs.

If I was a betting man, and I am, I would say that the most likely results are a loss for Ice and a win for me in the next round.

If that happens with one TD margins we will have the following:

Llyse - Alive Not Dead          TD +12 - 19 points

Lamaros - Rape of Skabine    TD +5 - 11 points
Ingmar - Beardstorm!           TD +3 - 11 points
ICE - Negative Capability      TD +3 - 11 points (I think this is correct, as Falc spoke of making all the Nix games 2-0 and Ice won his 2-1)

Which would make for a great final round.

Also, Ice's post above was very good, but there are still other possibilities.

Llyse is through.
Ingmar is still in contention on the last day of the season, no matter what.
Ice is still in contention on the last day of the season, no matter what.

If I win and Ice wins I am in contention of the last day of the season. (I would need to win and have Ice lose)
If I win and Ice draws I am in contention of the last day of the season. (I would need to win and have Ice draw or lose)
If I win and Ice loses I am in contention of the last day of the season. (I would need to win)
If I draw and Ice draws I am in contention on the last day of the season. (I would need to win and have Ice lose)
If I draw and Ice loses I am in contention on the last day of the season. (I would need to win and have Ice draw or lose)
If I lose and Ice loses I am in contention on the last day of the season. (I would need to win and have Ice lose)
If I lose and Ice does not lose I am out.

If ezrast does not win against me he is out.
If ezrast wins and Ice wins he is out.
If ezrast wins and Ice draws he is in contention. (He would need to win and have Ice and Ingmar lose)
If ezrast wins and Ice loses he is in contention. (He would need to win and have Ice draw or lose and Ingmar lose)

The most amazing group in the league:

10 pts   +7 TD   Snoosnoo         to play Silver Horde, Scarlet & Gray
9   pts   +6 TD   Silver Horde     to play Team SnooSnoo, Morsel
9   pts   +4 TD   Morsel             to play Offsidhes, Silver Horde
8   pts   +1 TD   Scarlet & Gray  to play Nifty Helmets, Team SnooSnoo
8   pts    -1 TD   H H Burninluv   to play Rebourne's Wrestlers, Nifty Helmets

If we make the assumption that Nifty Helmets and Rebourne's Wrestlers will continue to lose (reasonable given they have not won yet and only one of their 4 draws was against a team in contention) - by 2-0 - and that Offsidhes will lose to Megrim after being decimated, then we will have:

14 pts  +3 TD   H H Burninluv   to play no-one, no-one
12 pts  +6 TD   Morsel             to play no-one, Silver Horde
11 pts  +2 TD   Scarlet & Gray  to play no-one, Snoosnoo
10 pts  +7 TD   Snoosnoo         to play Silver Horde, Scarlet & Gray
9 pts    +6 TD   Silver Horde     to play Team SnooSnoo, Morsel

Which means:

Silver Horde is out if they lose this week.

Snoosnoo is out if they lose this week and Morsel v Silver Horde is anything but a draw next week.

Everything else is too complicated and involves TD differences and many results.

I WILL SEE WHAT I CAN DO.

INFACT; NOW LOOK WHATS HAPPENED, I THINK I HAVE A PROBLEM, AS THE SHIFT KEY HAS NOT BEEN USED IN SO LONG IT IS NOW STUCK. ANY SUGGESTIONS?   :awesome_for_real:

You stay classy.

 :facepalm:

 :awesome_for_real:

(http://dl.dropbox.com/u/11780032/avatar_398.jpg)

Yeah, now that we made the shift key issues clear, we can move over.

You can simplify stormbringer further ...

The playoffs start here, any of the top 5 who fail to win a match from now on are out, with the possible exception of snoosnoo who might be able to stand a draw if they get lucky, and Morsel or Silver Horde if pigs fly.

The combinations mean it is impossible for more than 3 teams to win twice and unlikely that less than 2 will. In which case 6 points sees you through unless you are HHB or S&G and have the inferior TD and either Morsel or Silver Horde scored six (they can't both do it).

Now watch day 6 produce 4 stormbringer ties....

For Cthulhu division:

I am through if:
*I win OR draw against Sky
*I lose to Sky AND AndyDavo beats Comstar

AndyDavo is through if:
*He wins OR draws against Comstar
*He loses to Comstar AND I lose to Sky (we would both be on 16 points but AndyDavo has the better TD difference)

Comstar is through if:
*He wins against AndyDavo
*He draws with Andy Davo AND I lose against Sky (we would both be on 16 points but Comstar has the better TD difference)

Stormbringer is wide open still.

After all the day 6 games it looks like this:

Silver Horde   12 points   +7TD
Morsel   12 points   +7TD
HH Burninluv   11 points   +2TD
Scarlet & Grey   11 points   +3TD
SnooSnoo   10 points    +3TD

Silver Horde play Morsel. Scarlet and Grey play SnooSnoo and HHBurninluv play the Nifty Helmets.

SnooSnoo is through if:
*They beat Scarlet and Grey AND HH Burninluv lose or draw AND the Silver Horde v Morsel game is not a draw.
*The beat Scarlet and Grey by at least a four TD differential AND Burninluv lose or draw AND the Silver Horde vs Morsel game is a draw

Scarlet and Grey are through if:
*They beat SnooSnoo AND HHBl don't win their game with two more TDs than S&G score.
*They beat SnooSnoo and the Silver Horde vs Morsel game is a draw

Huhnqua Huhnqua Burninluv are through if:
*They beat Nifty Helmets AND SnooSnoo beat Scarlet and Grey OR the Morsel vs Silver Horde game is a draw
*They beat Nifty Helmets by two more TDs than Scarlet and Grey manage in their game.

Morsel are through if:
*They beat Silver Horde
*They draw with Silver Horde AND Burninluv do not win their game AND SnooSnoo win or draw with S&G.
*They lose to Silver Horde AND Burninluv lose their game AND the SnooSnoo vs S&G geme ends in a draw

Silver Horde are through if:
*They beat Morsel.
*They draw with Morsel AND Burninluv do not win their game AND SnooSnoo beat or draw with Silver and Grey (SnooSnoo TD difference if they win must be less than +5)
*They lose to Morsel AND Burninluv lose their game AND the SnooSnoo vs S&G game ends in a draw

Stormbringer, short version.

Any of the top 4 almost certainly go through if they win. SnooSnoo if they get very lucky.


Stormbringer, long form.

Morsel V Silver Horde
The winners go through. Losers are out unless S&G tie with SnooSnoo, and HHB fail to beat Nifty Helmets, if that happens both go through unless the losers lost by 4, then you're into whatever breaks ties after TD.
If this is a tie, S&G, SnooSnoo, and HHB can all get ahead of both teams with a win. If only one of these three teams wins, then Morsel and Silver Horde will be tied on points and TD. Fuck knows what happens in that case.

Scarlet & Gray V Team SnooSnoo
S&G qualify with a win unless there is a clear result in Silver Horde V Morsel and HHB beat Nifty Helmets by one more TD (or better) than S&G beat SnooSnoo.
On a tie S&G need HHB to not beat Nifty Helmets and Silver Horde or Morsel to win by 4.
SnooSnoo must win to be in contention, they also need HHB not to beat Nifty Helmets or Silver Horde and Morsel to tie. If they rely on Horde and Morsel to tie, they'll also need to win by 4 to bring TD level with those two teams.

HH Burninluv V Nifty Helmets
HH Burninluv qualify with a win unless there is a clear result in Silver Horde V Morsel and S&G beat SnooSnoo by one less TD (or better) than HHB beat Nifty Helmets.
A tie or defeat and HHB are out.



I'm not making predictions because this is some fucked up shit. Also, someone tell me what we go to after touchdown difference, because we're going to need to know.

After TD difference it goes on the head to head result of the two teams (i.e. what the result of the match they played against each other was). After that your guess is as good as mine. Knowing Cyanide it's probably the number of successful GfI rolls or something equally illogical.

I answered the tiebreaker question on another thread here. Now if only I could find it... but it's official.

Here's the official tiebreaker rules:


So after TD diff, it's TD for, before head to head. If you feel it's unfair, we are eventually gonna change it next Season, but since I posted the above statement answering a specific question on February 10th, it cannot be changed for this Season.

Sounds fair enough. The full table would therefore be...


Pts   Dif   For                                          
12   +7   11 Morsel
12   +7   9   Silver Horde                        
11   +3   8   Scarlet & Gray
11   +2   8   Huhnqua Huhnqua Burninluv
10   +3   9   Team SnooSnoo                  

The obvious way this could go beyond TDs scored is if S&G win 2-1 while HHB win 2-0, and Morsel v Silver Horde has a result.

S&G & HHB would be split over the playoff line and would be level on points, score difference, and touchdowns. Their head to head result was an inconclusive 1-1.

Moving on to team value, Scarlet and Gray are on 1380, HHBurninluv are 20 behind on 1360, though both have enough cash on hand to boost their TV if they wish (S&G more so than HHB). So how are we measuring this? Are the teams allowed to spend cash after day 7? Are we excluding the value of injured players as the system does?

S&G are ahead on casualties, 15 to 12, if it comes to that.

Am I reading it right that at some point a higher tv is the tie-breaker? Seems to me the lower tv should progress, not the higher, since theoretically the lower tv team had less weapons.

But when you throw in inducements, I dunno. Seems to me the entire idea of tv breaking the tie throws out gameplay parameters and favoring either high or low tv biases the playoffs toward newbs or vets.

My 2¢ since I won't be seeing a playoff for quite a while, if ever :p

Actually, the rules lawyer in me is pointing out that Falconeer said the "best" TV qualifies, that could be taken either way.

I don't think anyone seriously expected a tie for second place on points, difference, TD scored, and head-to-head to actually happen.

But arguably it is right now one of the most likely Stormbringer outcomes.

We should vote on regulations for next Season. What should we go for?

I have no real issues with the rules above. Though skipping the TV tie breaker wouldn't hurt.

I always kind of feel like head to head should be the first tie breaker.

I agree with Ingmar. I like Head to Head -> TD difference -> TDs for -> CAS dealt -> flip a coin. A halfling vs. halfling side-playoff would also be acceptable.

TV just feels too manipulable to use for a tie-breaker, IMO, and it would be pretty lame for a coach to feel pressure to buy or sell players as a contingency for a tiebreaker, rather than because of tactical concerns about upcoming games.

I think that head to head and td difference have to be #1 and #2 respectively if you are still tied after that you have no right to complain the tie breaker could be a coin toss for all I care.

What Hoax said.

I've told it was TD difference, then Head to Head all along.

If it's not then I'm out.

TD difference is first this season, yes, we're pondering what it should be for next season.

Head-to-head, TD diff, TD scored, TD allowed, tie breaking side-game somehow.

Strongly disagree that head-to-head should be the first tie-breaker. Single games between closely-matched teams/coaches are as likely as not to be the product of Nuffle's whims. TD difference is a better indicator of overall excellence throughout the season, in my opinion.

TD difference is a much better way than a single Head to Head Match. It shows the season difference, rather than just a single game that might come down to one roll.

My vote's here as well.

Good points about head to head, so if someone's taking an informal poll you can revise my vote -- but I'd still like to see head-to-head used before TDs-for.

I think this should be the way to go. Head to head makes sense in some pro sports, but no much in Blood Bowl, I am afraid. At the same time, TD for is a joke as some teams are meant to score so much more than others.

I think we should really go for

1) TD diff
2) head-to-head
3) TD for

I agree.

KILLS

 :why_so_serious: :grin:

While I agree with what people are saying, I also feel that td diff and especially td's for strongly favor certain races over others. Which is why I like head to head. Does it come down more to luck? Maybe so but its BB what doesn't come down to luck.

I think a more compelling argument and therefore one that despite that fact that nobody has made it I'll agree with is that td diff can lead to more final week drama in most circumstances than head to head.

So TD diff -> Head to Head -> Kills/Coin Flip/3rd party game tie breaker

The race you choose to play as.

Looks like we need a poll...

Meanwhile crickets chirp waiting for the last match of Day 6...  :oh_i_see:

TD diff has the added advantage of being the measure that the system uses first. So outside of stormbringer everything happens automatically and we don't have to construct our own tables.

S&G and HHB could still use clarification on the TV rule for this season btw.

I still prefer head-to-head mostly because it just feels shitty to have someone you beat win a tiebreaker with you on something else. Really, none of them are perfect, TD difference is nearly as bad as TDs for for teams like dwarves or khemri that just will never blow someone out and tend to win or lose all their matches by 1.

Clearly they must be combined. TD difference modified by a head-to-head multiplier, so that a difference from the head-to-head matchup counts triple! Except I guess that doesn't work as well for three-way ties. Curses.

My specific preference:

 - TD diff.
 - Wood Elfs killed.
 - Other Elfs killed.
 - Non-elfs killed.
 - Alphabetical order by Star sign.
 - Quality of match reports posted.
 - Success in the prediction thread.

I give no fucks really, less democracy please.

I'll deal with whatever the conditions are, but I would prefer head-to-head as a team that is not going to have spectacular TD differentials.

From this season there is very little evidence that elfs or whatever have naturally higher TD differences.

They score more but also concede more.

The only teams with TD diff outside the typical range are the Catfighters, Alive not Dead, HoHomeopathy, and Peace Dogs. Last season's finalists, and the two new coaches who have struggled the most.

Show me on the doll where the Wood Elves touched you.   :awesome_for_real:

On TD's...I'm at work and can't look at stats, but am I really only on average for TD's?  I've scored in every game except against Llyse so far, and I've had a 7 TD and 6 TD game.  Also a 3 TD game against Lamaros.  My losses haven't been blow outs either....  Just seems amazing that I wouldn't be on the higher end of the TD scale.

So, from my experiences, TD seems a bit unfair since I can naturally make a shit ton of them when 1 team falls apart.  When facing bashy teams, the strategy is NOT to score a bunch of TD's, even if you've crippled the other team.  You try to hold onto the ball and delay the game until you score at the end, going for 2-1 type victories. 

Going by TD's seems a bit unfair to them.  But great for me!

The standings posted have you at -3 TD, which seems like it can't possibly be right. I think all the Nix games got retconned to 2-0, but even with that...

Teleku is at +7 prior to the NiX adjustment, and +2 afterwards. The -3 was correct if it already included the NiX thing, with the 6-1 win improving the difference to +2. The elves did lose 3-0 to Llyse after all.

Of course, after next week's game it will probably be back to -3.   :grin:

Just pick. Nobody should care. There are drawbacks to everything, it probably won't come into play, go see what other leagues are doing.

Best paintjob.

Loudest nerdrage.

Best contribution to the T&A thread.

Here are my original playoff predictions

Those in green are correct and through. Those in red are wrong and out.

Battletech

Llyse
Lamaros

Cthulhu the Orient

Comstar
AndyDavo

Stormbringer

Megrim
?? (drogg, in the end!)


Twilight 2000

Strazos
Avaia

How is the post-season knock-out cup thingy being seeded btw?

Do we get another exciting draw video starring Falconeer's glamorous hand, or are we doing a fixed structure based on where you finished in which league?

I demand another video.

Glad I could disappoint everyone, including myself.  :heartbreak:

I want another video!

Also I only got Cthulhu the Orient right...

Everything else was wrong.

The vote seems to be going strongly in favour of a new draw for the post season competition. That being the I assume it'll be winners seeded against runners up, with group protection to stop two sides from the same league facing each other in the first round?

This is important as theorycrafting favourable / unfavourable match ups is a critical part of pre-draw analysis.

How do the playoff's actually work- who plays who?

It's winners versus runner-ups. There will be a new draw. There won't be a new video unless I can hire my son to star in it (which is highly unlikely). The awesome would be my fucking father, 78 years old and 50 years on stage. But that's probably even less likely to happen.

Finish the regular season so we can wrap up the League before I leave for Florida and spend the off-time while I am there!

I vote for getting your dad to do the draw and a hot topless italian chick to hold the bowl he draws from. Nay, I demand it!

I actually have a hot Italian woman staying with me for the weekend. It might... be... fun to involve her somehow.
But then again, she's probably not what you have in mind.