f13.net

11 million plus (http://www.blizzard.com/us/press/081028.html)

Explains how they count, too.

The disclaimer also shows that they can afford a decent legal staff!   :why_so_serious:

Chart! (I put them at 11.1)

(http://pandadesigns.com/f13/wow_chart_20081028.jpg)

Do any analysis to see where they should peak?  Looks logarithmic (as you would expect).

Well since they haven't dipped yet, the population of the entire world?

Actually they've been growing at ~2 million subs every year starting in 2006. There's a good chance they'll continue that trend after WotLK releases and hit 12 million in December/January. So it's a question of how long you think they can continue growing and whether or not any non-Blizzard game in the relatively near term is going to be able to actually cause them to have a net loss in subs over a reasonable period of time rather than simply slow down their growth rate.

I don't know what Blizzard's plans are beyond WotLK but 14 million by the end of 2010 does not seem unreasonable (2 million in 2 years which is half the growth than they've had). I wouldn't bet money that will be the game's peak, though.

I would expect something of a growth upswing for WotLK and for several months following it. After that it should plateau again somewhat. They can probably sustain slow growth for a couple more years, which should see them within publicity distance of their second MMO. Throw some marketing rewards in that game based on participation in this one, and they're still buying the directors new sports cars for some time.

FIFY

Larry Ellison bought Activision Blizzard?

BC came out in Jan 07, but I really don't see any dramatic upswing during that time frame.  It looks pretty much like the rest of the line.  I wonder if WoTLK will be any different in that regard.


So I wonder whether anyone has ever analyzed whether the launch of a new game has ever materially affected the subs of a different one.  In WoW's case there are no obvious dips anywhere, let alone when another game launched.  Is this unique to WOW or does this predicted cannibalization never really happen?  There have obviously been dips in other games' subs, but it seems like it's more often caused by the game in question, not in the MMOG ecosystem.

One last thing. It looks like WoW was set to stabilize at around 2 million subs between March 05 and July 05 (that was still insanely good for the time period).  But around July something happened to fire the sub numbers off into the stratosphere.  What happened and why has it never looked back?

That's the China launch.

The line between late 2006 and early 2007 (TBC) is steeper than the line for earlier in 2006. That's the degree of upswing I am expecting, not a spike.

One thing about wow's success now is that it's a snowball effect. People play wow because all their friends are playing it, because it's the biggest game in town, so more people play and then their friends play....ad infinitum

I want to say wow is no longer part of the mmo market, it's a thing unto itself it is a cultural phenomena now and not quite subject to regular game laws.  This is a good thing imo for games like war, aoc or the old republic coming out. I want to say that wow has little bearings on those game's success and vice versa now.

I think I agree. WoW did not seem to expand the MMOG market, as some have said. That market seems to be about 1.5 million players. Spread over X amount of titles. With most of them trying the new shiny (AoC, WAR, etc...) and then settling down again.

The best part in that press release was where they mentioned they were hiring. The image of a money-hat assembly line with too much money and not enough people making hats immediately popped into my head for some reason..

Have you been to the blizzard office? it's a horrible mess, there's money all over the place, filling up cubicles and sticking to your shoes. They need some people to safely handle and bundle it all up so they can properly make hats and clothes out of it. I mean they are really hurting here people, let's not make light.

I dunno. I wonder what AoC and WAR's numbers -- initial sales and retention after the first month -- would be like if WOW never existed. I can't imagine either of them breaking 200k. (But then again, I suspected the same thing about WOW.)

I'm pretty damn sure if you look at a graph of say, DaoC's sub numbers, they just PLUNGE at the same time WoW is released.

You can also mark that point as to when they actually started making significant class changes in DaoC too  :awesome_for_real:

Definately. EQ too. EQ became a ghost town over night, according to friends who kept playing. Half my old guild moved to WoW while the EQ  portion completely disbanded several months later. Of course EQ didnt help matters by immediately consolodating servers. I don't know if it helped the ppl still playing much but it really broke the ties to EQ for the people who's server got deep sixed, IMO.

Nod. My EQ guild went from having 40-60 on raids to like 25-30 overnight. I played both for awhile, but when I found myself playing WoW for something to do while lfg in EQ... well I could read the writing on the wall.

I think the next step is for them to build some tallest building skyscraper somewhere and make it the HQ for all the employees, and have a skydeck for visitors to gawk out of and take pictures.  Then there'll be a movie, Sleepless Playing WoW or something, parts of it filmed on location.

One of the explanations for the mid '05 spike is also the first time when Blizzard actually had stable servers. They had just started their weekly 5 hour maintenance window a few weeks before, and had just gotten over a rash of multi-day server outages (there was one in the beginning of May 05 in which they gave every character full rest state at a time when everyone was still levelling either their first toon or a very early alt) which definitely would not have done much for word of mouth. I know I was not saying to friends they needed to try the game out at that point :p

I think that when you say MMOG market you meant the NA and Europe MMO market. A good chunk of WOW's players come from other regions like China / Taiwan / Korea etc.

So in a way, increases in subs from those region does not really help grow the English MMO player base, unless there are the willingness (and ability) for other MMO companies to commit to stepping into non-english regions like WOW did.

I don't really agree. I've only paid for WoW and Guild Wars. I've beta'd a few others.

But I just dont pay money for a MMO that looks a bit eh at launch. I'm sure there are lots of people like me, who would play a MMO, but just do go in for the whole 'buy every game at launch' thing. I'm pretty sure WoW has expanded the market a bit.

Hey now, I thought they lost a few subscribers to AoC, for a small period. That deserves a nanometer-sized V in that chart during AoC launch!

Seriously, I have nothing to say. Im not suprised nor was this unexpected. I said this in 2006, the only game that will make WoW start losing subscribers is another Blizzard game.

Of course. Although, as an aside,  I suspect the proportions would probably compare to their subscriber bases as well.