f13.net

www.mmogchart.com got updated.


I'm going with Ice Age MMO, and...Age of Conan.  Just a feeling.


It would really increase the cache of F13 in the gaming community to have our own paid industry analyst. 

 

Afford it?  Wasn't he independently wealthy or something?

I can't say that doing this research should cost a dime.

Like, not a single dime.

And I'm really fucking sick of all this Web 2.0 blather… …WTF, it's a freaking chart with numbers… …what does he want, animated popups of furry toons? Real time updates in AJAX, ringing a bell every time a subscriber logs in to WoW…?

Isn't web 2.0 the chart having sex with an underaged furry in Second Life?

That was always his story, yes. But he invested a chunk of that into WW2OL..  Then there's the way the wealthy STAY wealthy.. by not pissing it all away doing shit without getting paid for it.

I'm sure his research costs about 50 cents worth of electricity a month, not the mention the opportunity cost of updating the chart instead of sitting in his underwear jerking off to sexual harrassment panda.

Serious question: why would anyone hire Bruce as a consultant? What expertise does he supposedly bring to the table?

It was Time cost probably, not money. And maybe hits on his site, because so many other sites hit on his numbers by there being no other site.

Regardless, I suspect the deeper reason is that it's a hell of a lot harder to get those numbers today than it was four years ago. Publishers got smart, found all ways to report numbers that mattered to their stock/stakeholders that didn't distill down to flat-monthly-fee folks. And the genre itself has changed a lot too. For example, there is no good way to do a straight comparison between Auditon (120mil users in a really cheap game and no idea how many people play or pay regularly) and WoW (10mil monthly-fee-payers in a really expensive game).

If he's at any company, I suspect he's at Virtual World News (http://forums.f13.net/index.php?topic=12091.0). They're trying, can't fault them for that. But they're trying to show people how on top of things they are by showing huge growth, and doing so by drawing in the wrong numbers. Reminds me of a number of debates with him around here...

I can picture some guy with a bunch of VC money going "ZOMG HE KNOWS ALL THE NUMBERS FOR EVERY GAME!" and not caring that Bruce is full of shit.

In the country of the blind, the one-eyed man is king. Regardless of the accuracy of his statements.

Seriously - I'd say $100 a year would top out the costs of running the website (minus monthly ISP costs, but you need that for the internet anyway, so it's almost a utility cost). Research is relatively easy - even easier if he hosts a forum where he gets people to post up the numbers they find.

Also, as more companies go public, so should their player numbers. It doesn't matter if the numbers are 100% accurate or even off the same base provided that the research labels them correctly. But the numbers on their own don't mean much - it's the interpretation of those numbers and the 'why' that is worth something. I don't know SirBruce well enough to know how good his analytical ability is for such things.

That's 1.0. Web 2.0 is when said furries take pictures of said sex and post it on the chart web page.

 :hello_thar:

Not necessarily. This is about money (duh). If you have a number of methods for getting it (box sales + subs + ingame adverts or xtrans), you only really need to report the revenue. Or if you're a freebie MMO, you can do the "registered users" + revenue thing, without ever reporting the sort of things the average pundit wants to hear (how many people are playing it seriously and how much do they convert into cash). There's no reason for companies to report numbers in an easily comparable way, which makes analyzing the growing pool of such numbers even harder.

And that is one of the reasons why Virtual World News has to invent irrelevant comparisons just to show a number.

Nah, dollar-wise, the research itself isn't costly. But it was only "cheap" time wise when the 8 or so games he used to focus on all reported things the same way. That only works in a world without Korean MMOs, any xtrans game, and where everyone is open about their upfront development and ongoing costs. Or, in other words, doesn't work.

MMOs have evolved beyond the easily-measured hobbiest thing into real business. This is why we have companies like NPD and DFC. And even they have blindspots and miss things.

That may be true, but I, too, think that he just wants to be paid, so he can eat.  More or less, "Ok, I'm gonna get a real job, gonna be too busy to continue doing this; if you guys want me to continue, pay me.  Anyone?  No?  Ok bye."

Shouldn't of blown all his money on WWIIOL.

Any analyst can tell you that wasn't a sound investment just based on the name of the game.

Anyone have the story on why he thought WWIIO was the one to invest in? I remember that he did, and of course we all lived the history of beta through live. But I never could understand why he thought that was going to be all that. Was it the unique theme (which sadly would still be unique even today)? The concept of an MMOFPS?

And yea, I figure he'd be the only one who knows the whole truth. But I figured he'd also have publicly stated why here or at WT.o or whatever too. I'm just wildly curious because as you said, any random poster could have pointed out why to not invest in it, much less self-styled and/or actual analysts.

Edit: grammar

Well, I can't cast any stones at Bruce for WWIIOL.  It was the MMO that I had anticipated the most and I can vividly remember building a new box and tweaking the hell out of it to try and get my WWIIOL framerates up. 

Can someone explain to me why sub numbers are such a black box affair in the gamign industry?  You'd think that it would be something that investors would want to know in some kind of financial statement. 

Numbers are generally reported during the good times, massaged when not. Investors want to know these things of course. However, most external investment is for new titles, trying to measure precedent from titles already out. Imagine you're a publisher of an existing title. How interested are you in telling your upcoming competition how good (or not) you're doing?

Launched titles meanwhile are generally more internal affairs, asking management for more money, asking the publisher for more money, for a game that's already out. It gets hazy when you have a game that's already out trying to stretch into a new market or territory. But now you're in the middle: you have your own numbers to report to management and are trying to get numbers from your competition.

This is why I've long wondered about pundits (not you, but the media in general) keep demanding/asking for some sort of unified measure of success. That certainly helps reporting. But how does that help a company? Per above, sure it'd help new companies. What benefit is it to companies with games already launched that already know their growth isn't a series of spiked events going forward?

Other industries have their own reporting methods, but many of the consumer goods ones are similarly voluntary, with similar arguments for and against their relevance.

But Hunt's Ketchup freely admits to being #2 in the marketplace (despite being a superior product for everything but french fries).

And you can find the data.....http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/villas/mba299m/JMR2005.pdf (http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/villas/mba299m/JMR2005.pdf)

MMOG's are...perhaps still in their market infancy.

MMOFPS was a pretty nifty idea when it came out. Plus, the idea was being thrown around a little after Saving Private Ryan or something, right? I guess I can see why he got so stoked about it.

Someone should make a documentary about this guy.  It would be fascinatingly creeped.

Believe me, he's not the creepiest this community has ever seen.  Ever heard of Whamadoodles Online?

So he's still around? I also like how his explanation for lack of updates was basically him begging for a corporate sponsor or for someone to hire him.

"You, we need you and your MOUS certification in Excel to make some chartzzz."

No no no. That's not 2.0 at all man. It's not blather it's BlathR. Keep up!

You almost got it.

Blathr.

blathr

Web 2.0 doesn't believe in capitalization.

No, but I just googled it.  A parody?  In the words of Marvin Gaye, "Ain't nothin' like the real thing baaaaaaby!"

No having fucking elves makes it almost unique, no elves *and* set in the past takes you over the line.

Naw, I was wondering why Planetside doesn't count as a MMOFPS...

I think that was two seperate questions. Unique theme..... and an MMOFPS. Not Unique theme that was MMOFPS. Plus WW2OL was 2 years prior to PS.

I think I see that now. Nested quotes and shit make me confused and sad.  :oh_i_see:

The same reason why companies like Microsoft don't break out the financials for the Xbox -- it's a small part of their business and it's not required. To put it another way the companies that do report numbers are 1) public, 2) primarily MMO companies. There are no US companies like that. SOE is part of Sony Pictures which is part of Sony. Turbine is private. Mythic was private but now part of EA, which is not primarily an MMO company. And so on. If you look over at Asia, there are a number of companies that meet the above two criteria and they do in fact report their numbers.

I'm sorry to hear that. Have a cookie, you'll feel better.

I like cookies.

PS launched two years after WWIIO.

It will change. The MMOG industry is young yet. Phone companies, cable companies, satellite TV companies, Netflix, etc. all report subscriber numbers regulary as part of being public. Once the Activision-Blizzard deal closes, you will have one large public company regulary reporting sub numbers and the tredn will grow from there. It would help if EA could get its MMOGless ass into the game in a more significant way. I predict that EA will report aggregate subscriber numbers for both MMOGs once WAR launches. Microsoft reports XBLive subscribers readily enough. It will happen.

Sure investors would want to know, but really, the actual number of subs doesn't matter for shit as a raw number. It's only good for circle-jerking on forums or impressing VC who have no clue about the MMOG business other that "WOW HAS 10 MILLION SUBS!" Its a meaningless number by itself. It needs to be compared to things like operating costs. Every MMOG has a set number of subscribers that is their break even point. Anything above that is success, below that is failure. And all those numbers need to be charted over time. Raw sub numbers are just numbers without context.

He had donations up and people actually gave him money? People on the Internet will pay for any-fucking-thing.