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If EQ2 or WoW (I suppose MEO as well) fail to rekindle the glory days of mmogs enjoyed by EQ or UO when every gaming magazine had one or the other on the cover every month, will we finally be rid of watered down, vanilla crap we have been exposed to in the past year or so?  I'm not advocating a return to the catass days of yesteryear but just games with some distinction from one another other than avatar skins.
 
While some of the "2nd generation" of mmogs have had limited success none have met their potential or even gotten close to being the next king of mmogs.  Some games like AC2 have actually taken a franchise backwards.  If WoW or EQ2 don't move mega-mmogs forward will even large publishers like Sony change tack and move to wider variety, smaller scope games rather than the current mind set of trying to make one game be everything for everybody?  

 
-Tige

Actually, no one I know of is still trying to make one game for everybody.  Even EQ2, WoW, etc. have their targeted markets.  Yes, they are still aiming for a large piece of the pie (200,000+) but that's okay.  The fantasy MMORPG market appears to be fairly deep, despite the heavy competition.

That being said, yes, I believe the future is more about targeted MMOGs with smaller scope and wider variety, but there will still be attempts at the mega hits, as well as attempts to appeal to the broader market beyond the hardcore.

Bruce

EQ was hardly one-size fits all. No pvp, very limited crafting (esp when compared to SWG or ATITD) etc.

SWG and at a (big) stretch DAoC are pretty much the only examples of 'try to do it all in one place' that I can think of.

Both EQ and UO were "the one true MMOG" because they were unique in the marketplace. Those days are over. There are very few "unique" MMOG's out there. There will never be a "one true MMOG" again. The days of the blockbuster behemoth MMOG's are over.

WoW steals hands down from other mmorpgs. It steals from EQ, Final Fanstasy XI, DAoC and even SWG.

It still has a focused target but it's really obvious how much they took directly from other games and improved.

For example the map system is basically FFXI done better. And so on with other systems of the game.

Sounds like a winning plan to me.

so you are making the aassertion that no future MMOG will ever reach the subscription numbers that UO or EQ enjoyed?  i call bullshit on that and predict that both WoW and EQ2 will both be "blockbuster behemoths," surpassing EQ and UO subscription peaks.

The audience for these things isn't static; it grows every year.  As kiddies get older, subscriber potential grows.  Internet gaming is really just starting to crawl out of it's infancy and into the mainstream (probably pushed by interactive console gaming).

Another factor is that adults who were around to play EQ or UO or even MUDs don't really seem to "outgrow" these games.  So what you have is an expanding user base, with a relatively small "retirement" population.  My guess is that this is just the beginning; and that every generation of MMOG will have a "blockbuster behemoth" that dwarfs the one before it.

Not meaning to take away any potential thunder from WoW(because I have high hopes for the game), but I've seen these same arguments used to defend why the then-upcoming TSO, SWG, and FF XI were going to rock the MMO world, and I'm sure as release starts seeming like a reality for the two, MEO and MatrixOnline will also be defended with the same arguments.

There's no question in my mind that WoW and EQ2 will both be successful, WoW in particular thanks to its simultaneous US-Korean release, I'm just no longer certain on whether or not either can "defeat" EQ1 or UO.  Well, EQ1 anyways.

Yes, I'd go so far as to say I doubt any fantasy MMOG is going to dethrone EQ1 in NA + Europe anytime soon.  This doesn't mean they can't be successful in their own right.

A MMOG with a broaded appeal (TSO "done right") easily could.

Bruce

any guesses as to what % of the current playerbase of EQ1 will leave for EQ2/WoW?  20%?   i don't play anymore, so maybe some people who still do can take a better guess at this than me.

i know the company line is that "they are not for the same audience;" but i think a pretty large percentage will switch within the first few months, assuming the product is as good as the rumors coming out of beta.  i think there's little doubt that EQ1 will take a pretty large hit when WoW and EQ2 are released at roughly the same time.

and when you say "dethrone" are we talking about surpassing in concurrent paid subscriptions, or just reaching the peak of .5 M (est) that EQ1 reached?

I doubt EQ1 will lose much of anyone to WoW.  It might lose some to EQ2.  The bigger loss is going forward, replacing the people who normally quit over time, with new people who now get to choose between a box that says EQ1 and one that says EQ2 or WoW.

By surprassing anytime soon I mean actually passing whatever the current EQ1 level is.  As EQ1 drops further in the future, this becomes more likely... witness, for example, what has happened to UO.

Bruce

FFXI is sort of interesting in that it hasn't rocked the MMO world at all. In fact, it's almost a thud. But it's larger than EQ and it hasn't even come out in Europe yet. It's North American subscriber base is undoubtedly larger the DAOCs or UOs. For a "home based monthly subscription" model I think it's probably the highest subs in the world. But nobody pays attention to it.

Some of that is because it's not from a US studio and some that people have discounted the playstation thing, but I think a lot of it is exactly what this thread is about. The market is crowded enough that even when a game does very very well, it still isn't enough to get that superstar status. When the big games were first growing, it seemed like everyone was playing them. Everyone is playing something different thesedays and I don't see that changing with WOW or EQ2 or anything else.

WoW will settle in around 200k subscriptions. It will NOT surpass EQ1 for a long time, if ever. It will never reach 430k subscribers.

EQ2 will hover around 100k and be barely successful. It will, however, be more profitable than SWG will be because the nookie pie doesn't have to get split with George the Third.

No one will reach EQ success levels again until the MMOG market contracts to such a small size that no one is paying attention to it anymore. For the forseeable future, there are too many choices, all of which play too similarly for there to be one huge game that takes over all the rest.

Actually, probably not, but it is very close.  If it is larger in NA, it's not larger by very much (~50K subs maybe).



No, that would probably still be Lineage, unless Ragnarok Online offers a "home based monthly subscription" option.

Bruce

I think you're wrong. It will lose some to EQ2, those who like the world but are burned out on EQ1.

However, WOW is very directly marketing towards EQ vets. Why do you think every big guild in EQ got 10+ beta accounts? And out of those quite a few have said they are leaving EQ for WOW. And alot of those have been logging onto EQ and talking about WoW. Word of mouth man.

 I think for awhile that it will be hard to see the turnover simply because people will not unsub for awhile. However, I predict WoW will take a bigger chunk of EQ1 than EQ2 will.

It's not like WoW needs the word of mouth to be successful.  What it needs is the assurance from Blizzard to those familiar with previous b.net games that they are going to take a severe stance against the standard asshats that all but ruined multiplayer over bnet.  I'd also like to know that they wouldn't go overboard when a nerf is needed, like they did with the great necromancer-nerfings in early D2, but that's sort of par for course with MMOs, so I'm not gonna throw a hissy if it happens.

Well, there's no way we'll ever really know, but my thought with EQ1 was the same as yours... those who try out WoW won't unsub from EQ1.  If there were that many people unhappy with EQ1, they would have ALREADY quit.  WoW may be a good game, but it's not the Second Coming.

But, we'll see how it shakes out.

Bruce

I'm just happy that we will be able to see concretely how it will go relatively soon.

My opinion is still that WoW will affect subscriptions of other mmorpgs. SWG, UO, EQ and DAoC in particular.

History proves me wrong but I also never claimed about this before.

My "400k in six months" for WoW still applies. I'll be one for sure.

Ragnarok surprises me to this day. It's a buggy, badly put together game with virtually no depth at all, but it just fucking exploded in markets outside of Europe and North America. If I remember correctly it's actually responsible for some curfew laws in Thailand.

And this is despite there being an excellent server emulator for it.

I think you may be misinterpreting the nature of Blizzard's audience. Those asshats are the target market for WoW so if you haven't yet prepared yourself for the stupidity that will undoubtedly ensue once the game is available to everyone, then you probably should.

I don't doubt that WoW will have a hideously large number of players, but whether it will be playable is another matter entirely.

Thats what I've wondered about. Is the fan base for MMORPG's pretty static? I mean when a new one comes out, are a majority of subscribers ones who are new to MMORPG's (that doesn't seem correct to me) or do new MMORPG's most of the time cannablize their subscribers from already existing games?

Do you think SWG will take a major hit from EQ2/Wow even though they are two different genres (scifi v. fantasy) or does that not really matter because people gravitate towards the new game irrespective of genre?

Just curious.

My opinion is that the genre means zero.

History also demonstrates that nothing major ever happens. In general mmorpgs have an extremely slow decline. The subscription numbers don't crumble all at the sudden.

To date no game has ever taken a 'major' hit when a new game was released.  I believe they have had some visible dips in logins, but then there's a recovery after a month or two. (Anecdotal evidence from the games I've played.)  But an atrophy of a few thousand or tens of thousands of subs all at once - what I would consider a 'killer' cancellation - hasn't happend yet.

However, when you start up a new game you'll always find vets in addition to the new players. In SWG I knew people who, like me, had played all the major games from UO or EQ forward, some who had played a single game exclusivly or some who picked it up just because it was Star Wars. (Interesting to note, the last category was always the one most dissatisfied with the game.)

There's a large 'veteran' base out there after 7 years of MMOs, and they're not all subbed. Hell, if this community and Corp is any reflection of the greater nature of the vets then fully half of them aren't subbed to any MMO.  They'll play some of the games on release, find it's not what they wanted, play until they get what they wanted or get bored and move on.  That's a LARGE number of people waiting on their particular game, or just disgusted with the genre enough to never play beyond a few weeks.

So, games aren't really cannibalizing any playerbase, and the genre IS expanding it's potential users.  It IS, however creating more jaded or disinterested people like us, becaue of the nature of all their designs.

P.T. Barnum said there's a sucker born every minute. If you add up all the sales of all boxes for MMOs does it even hold a candle to, say, the number of X-boxes or PS2s sold? Probably not, meaning there's a lot of suckers out there looking for another game. Sure, not all console gamers have PCs, but console MMOs other than EQOA will start coming out in time.  (When consoles can do something other than the asstastic world of EQOA.)   Until enough people have been had and even big games like EQ2 or WOW get "The Sims Online" subscription numbers MMOs will continue as they are. There's enough potential 'new users' out there that keep coming to the genre, though, that I don't see a tide of change sweeping through it any time soon.

I am a bit curious as to whether or not a dramatic decrease in subscribers over a short period of time is even possible on a dev-supported game server, short of the glitchiest of billing errors.  Anybody have some numbers on AC2 population growth/decline from release to whenever?

My anecdotal experience is, having played very little EQ over the past year, is that folks there are waiting for "the next thing".

EQ feels like it has reached its limit.  SOE can always add another zone, but with the gear available today at the high end, you can see fighters with maximum charisma - primary attribute maximization occurred a long time ago.  

(Independent of passing its own limits, EQ has created large barriers to returning players with the crazy flagging.  It makes grouping even more difficult.)

At its core EQ was not meant to be "played" this long with such diligent advancement (inferred from its surprise success) and I don't see any patch current or planned that can change this appearance.

One sign of the apocalypse in EQ was the sight my 20th level monk was greeted with in Lake of Ill Omen. There was a Vah Shir Shaman pulling to the beach, flanked by a level 65 enchanter and level 65 cleric. Lowbie game? Heh.

And there was a level 54 bard kiting half the zone.

They were the only people there besides myself, humbly playing like a lowly lowbie scumbag, the way I used to 'in the day'.

Same anecdotal experience here on the high end of the game.  The Afterlifes, Fires of Heaven, etc of every server are ready to bolt.  I know people in uberguilds on my server and on another server in game and IRL and they all echo this sentiment.  These guys are the hardcore and have more in common with those of us on the MBs than we might like to admit.  Because of this, they're more willing to move on and experience something else, given the right influence.

However, there's a MUCH larger number of people who aren't anywhere near this level.  They're 'tier two' or 'tier three' guilds who are only just getting in to Vex Thal. (My guild, for example, only just killed the Emperor of Ssra for the first time three weeks ago.)  These folks aren't in any rush to the endgame, and the average number of AAs they have is around 150.  Elemental planes isn't even on their viewscreen yet, despite the large number of pickup raids they could do in order to be flagged.

 They're planning on being in EQ for a while yet, and a good number of them have told me they plan on playing EQ 'until the servers shut down.'  Part of it is disinterest in other games, part of it is friends made, and a large part is time invested.  When you take 5 years to reach 65 and a 'megar' 150 AAs you're not willing to move on and replicate that experience.

It will be interesting to see how WoW, even EQ2, handle their expansion strategy going forward.

In EQ, prior to LDON, the "old" zones dropped in player density greatly, making it very difficult for lowbies in a group oriented game to advance.  At least LDON gave people a reason to return to these older zones.

HRose I think has cautioned in a post on the Blizz boards sometime ago about avoiding the patchwork of zone expansions endemic to EQ.  

WoW and EQ2 will feel immediately fresh because they don't have this patchwork of zone additions jarring the feel of the whole game.  But how will they manage this over time?  What lesson has been learned?

There are a lot of people that quit EQ due to burnout but enjoyed the mechanics. Me included. These people will flock to EQ2. If half of the people that played EQ for 1 year or more and quit come to EQ2, the game will have 150k subs. That number comes directly from my ass.

Good point.  Not everyone left EQ out of bile filled hatred.  I quite liked the game.  I just got bored and moved on eventually.  I am very interested in returning and will do the goldpass thingy.

There is a tremendous amount of cannibalization, particularly within the same genre of game (fantasy).  However, this cannibalization is usually not immediate when a new game comes out, and instead takes place over time much like it would have anyway without a new game.  A MMOG's fan base is not static but does not change overnight.

An example: You have a MMOG with 400K subs.  Every year, 100K people leave your MMOG, but 200K new people join, so you are growing 100K/year.  You have a hard core of maybe 50% that never quit, but the rest of the population rotates quite a bit.

A new MMOG comes out, and let's say it does well, getting 200K.  Some of those people will be people who never played your MMOG, but a good portion will be either ex-players of your MMOG that you ALREADY lost, or they will be people who will subscribe to BOTH MMOGs at the same time.  Over the following year, you'll still lose the same 100K that you lost last year, but instead of them leaving MMOGs completely they'll wind up in the competitor's game instead.  You won't see half your player base switch over one month, so it's not a very noticeable effect.

The big problem comes in those 200K new subs you were getting every year.  Now, when the new consumer comes to the shelf, they can buy your game, OR they can buy this newer, shinier MMOG.  Lets say 100K choose yours and 100K choose the new one... now you're in trouble, because now you're gaining new subscribers at the same rate you are losing old ones.  The new MMOG hasn't stolen your playerbase so much as stunted your growth.

There is one good example that seems to show this, and that is the effect Dark Age of Camelot had on Ultima Online and EverQuest. DAoC launched in Sep 01 but had a large open beta before then.  UO began to show a slowdown sometime between April and October, going from an average of 4% growth per month to actually shrinking, falling to a low of some 208,000 in December of 2002.  EQ began to show an effect in June 01, and went from an average of 8.86% growth per month to a 0.61% growth per month.



I think genere plays an important role, but SWG actually has a lot of previously "fantasy" players in it.  Still, I doubt it will take a major hit from either game.  Games like EQ1 and AC1 and DAoC are probably the most at risk, since they are already a bit "long in the tooth" and have a lot more subscribers at risk of switching.

Bruce

The market has become so muddied I find it unlikely *any* MMORPG can haul over the market share needed to put a dent in the big dogs. The only thing that could draw a huge player base now is large-scale innovation.

When I look at the sheer volume of EQ clones passing themselves off as unique, I can't help but think that it's going to take a game that abandons the current perception of what makes a MMORPG.. in fact, it will have to go to lengths to prove to everyone it's *not* a MMORPG.

As much as I hate to say it, I feel D&D has contributed greatly to the sad state of online gaming today. You have a generation of geeks, fondly remembering the bliss that was PnP gaming, trying desperately to bring that magic to the computer. On the other side of the fence are people seeking that magic, lulled into thinking the ends justify the means. The entire premise of PnP gaming has been perverted, forgoing constant fun and unscripted adventure for the brief glimmer of hope that someone will someday say, "omg wher did u find tat awsom flamng sword!!"

ATiTD stepped out of the box, and for that I respect them. If someone can bring some semblance of excitement to that world it would have much potential. They provided an entirely new system of advancement and interaction, but the sacrificial lamb was adventure. There's little to discover or overcome.. the only real adversity is carpal tunnel syndrome.

The fact that I don't even know what half of this means makes me all happy inside.  I played EQ hardcore until Velious was released, deleted my characters and never regretted a moment of it.  I experienced the game before fan sites and show EQ removed the adventure and catassed my way to victory about the same time Lum coined the term.

The fact still remains: WoW and EQ2 will be little more than what we have already seen.  Yes, they will do some aspects of it better (that means accessibility for you HRose).  But until someone gets away from the tired Diku/AD&D mindset, we'll continue to see nothing but shinier versions of the same tired game systems.  

As for my choice between anime on roids and plastic hair the sequel, I give them both the cold shoulder.

UO2: Third Time's The Charm?

;)

Yes, right now it works because all the world is inserted into an ideal path, quest-based, that follows your character till level 60.

The patchwork begins when you start to add more and more content with a "flat" strategy where you simply add more of the same. This new content isn't "new". Instead it cannibalize what the game has offerend till that point. In fact in other games like DAoC more zones don't mean more gameplay. They mean just more desolation because the new zones simply replace the old ones.

There's an interesting piece of an article at Mobhunter about the next EQ expansion:

What I really fear for WoW is the obvious: they'll rise the level cap to excuse more flat development.

No interesting developments on the horizon, just more of the same.

Well if you go to the EQ2 boards they are very careful to say that the mechanics (other than the tired old manipulate the crappy AI excuse me, aggro control combat mechanic) are not very much like EQ1 at all. It is said it is more like EQ:OA. (I haven't played OA so can't comment. Haven't played EQ2 for that matter.)

WoW on the other hand is directly going after the EQ playerbase. It's very blatant and alot of the gameplay feels very EQish. In fact, my major complaints with the game are the parts of it that feel like EQ.

Given the number of competing titles and that the mmog market has started to mature, we won't ever see one or two titles with total market share again.

But we will see one or two titles dominate the market, with a number of smaller titles hovering around the edges. This transition will probably come with the demise of EQ - there is probably part of the player base there who, when the EQ lights are turned off, won't go and play another mmog. With EQ dead (or left to die) new players to the mmog genre will have a number of equally attractive titles (well, all dolled up titles anyway) to choose from.

What is interesting from this point out is how the mmog market grows. Ignore the raw numbers - who cares if WoW gets 400k players if that's only 1% of the market? It will be interesting to see how long it will take for players to accept subscription payment models in large numbers (ie millions of players). Paying for online gaming is still a bit of novelty outside of boards like this - how many times have you seen "do you have to pay a monthly fee?" threads on mmog forums?

Also, I think what the market considers a mmog will change. Currently mmorpgs dominate - perhaps it will be an mmorts or mmofps that truly brings about the Next Big Thing.